The document summarizes various macroeconomic indicators in India. It reports that the onset of the second COVID-19 wave has triggered foreign institutional investors to move money out of Indian equity markets. Many company profits were under stress in the fourth quarter of 2020 according to data from 254 companies, despite increasing margins. Consumer confidence weakened in March 2021 due to deteriorating views on the economy, income, and prices. Overall, several indicators show the Indian economy recovering but facing headwinds from the second wave of the pandemic.

1. Macro Economic Indicators
Compiled by Jignesh Yagnik
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
The Onset of second wave has again triggered FII to move out of Indian Equity. On other Official data is awaited for March 21, which would be positive, however considering Q1 of FY22, it
hand DII looks to have positive outlook for current devaluation looks it would be in negative tragectory
SUPPORT INDICATORS
Many companies are yet to disclose figures of Q4, however it seems profit under stress from data of Awaiting updated data. However considering impact of second wave, a W shaped recovery seems to be there.
254 companies in Q4, inspite of margins increasing (hence cost overburden)
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21
GDP Growth
Continues its positive trend
50
70
90
110
130
150
170 8 Core industries Index
Q4 expected to be good, Production has continued in positive trend
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
FII - DII Inflow
Equity Performance was largely dominated by FII inflow
FII DII
-60.00%
-40.00%
-20.00%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
Sep'19 Dec'19 Mar'20 Jun'20 Sep '20 Dec '20 Mar'21
Change in financial of Listed companies
Companies result are promising for a better outlook
Income Net profit Profit Margin (%)

2. Macro Economic Indicators
FDI outward flow was there in February, March 2021 data is awaited
FDI - OUTWARD - SECTORS AND INVESTORS
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
FDI (USD in Mn)
India showing more confidence of growth than many countries
MAURITIUS, 840.75
UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA, 411.14
NETHERLANDS, 245.93
SINGAPORE, 120.24
UNITED KINGDOM,
78.52
Other, 231.49
FDI Outward (March 2021) US $ in mn
TRANSPORT,
STORAGE AND
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES , 780.22
MANUFACTURING ,
683.41
WHOLSALE, RETAIL
TRADE, RESTAURANTS
AND HOTELS , 245.22
FINANCIAL,INSURANC
E AND BUSINESS
SERVICES , 104.92
AGRICULTURE AND
MINING , 40.85
Other , 73.45
SECTORAL OUTWARD - US $ in mn
BHARTI AIRTEL LIMITED,
750.00
LUPIN LTD, 250.00
MAHINDRA &
MAHINDRA LTD, 109.52
SRF LTD., 83.83
ONGC VIDESH LTD.,
67.29
Other , 667.43
Top Companies
Amount in US $ in mn

3. Macro Economic Indicators
Production Output
Steady movement post quick and steep recovery
Manufacturing output
Select Markets have shown signs of demand pick up, resulting in increased investment
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 Manufacturing PMI
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Industrial Production (% growth)
-43
-38
-33
-28
-23
-18
-13
-8
-3
2
7
Construction output

4. Macro Economic Indicators
CONSUMPTION INDICATORS
Demand from state distribution utilities dropped 1.1%, marking the first such decline in records going
back to 2006, Consumption fell as businesses, offices and factories were shuttered after lockdown
CONSUMPTION INDICATORS
April drop cannot be considered as indicator since it is a typical behaviour post Q4 closure of target Overall yearly consumption has fallen on account of lockdowns
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Electricity Consumption Peak Demand (MU)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
GST Collection Rs in cr
Stabilised but above 1 lakh cr for 3 months !!!
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000 Vehicle Registration
Consistent sales improvement, esp in transport, a strong business improvement
indicator
Total Count
Transport vehicle
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200 Petroleum Consumption (lakh Mt tonne)
Contradictory to Vehicle registration

5. Macro Economic Indicators
INFLATION AND MONEY SUPPLY
April data expected to shoot up on account of covid hit, where opportunistic price have been levied
across segments like medicine, fruits etc
INFLATION AND MONEY SUPPLY
Credit growth is key factor depicting growth in economy. While Sluggishness is largely on account of Target M3 = Saving Bank deposit + Time deposit with Bank + Credit to commercial sector +FOREX asset of Bank +
of financial year ending. Deposit with RBI + Currency with public (Hence Money supply in economy)
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
1-Jun
19-Jun
3-Jul
17-Jul
1-Aug
14-Aug
31-Aug
1-Sep
1-Oct
15-Oct
1-Nov
15-Nov
1-Dec
15-Dec
31-Dec
15-Jan
31-Jan
15-Feb
28-Feb
14-Mar
31-Mar
15-Apr
30-Apr
Loan growth rate
A regular drop post Q4
5.60%
5.70%
5.80%
5.90%
6.00%
6.10%
6.20%
6.30% Govt 10 Yr Bond
Increasing fixed yield is adverse for equity performance
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
140
142
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
Inflation
CPI Food inflation (Secondary Axis)
150000
155000
160000
165000
170000
175000
180000
185000
190000
195000
Money Supply - M3
Rs in Billion

6. Macro Economic Indicators
Confidence Index / Summary of Indicators
As per RBI survey "Consumer confidence for the current period weakened in March as the current
situation index dipped further in negative territory on the back of deteriorating sentiments on
general economic situation, income and prices,"
Aug Sep Oct Nov Jan'21 Feb'21 March'21 Legend
GDP Decrease
Profit (listed co.) Increase
8 Core Data pending
Industrial Prod Stagnant
Mfg PMI NA
Electricity Conum.
GST Collection
Vehicle Reg
Transp. Vehicle
Petrol Cons
Loan growth
M3
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Compiled by : Jignesh Yagnik (Source : Government Agencies / Data Banks)
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accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any information can be assumed and no responsiblity for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information can be taken.
Author shall not be in any way responsible for any indirect, special or consequential damages that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in the reports. Opinions
expressed therein are our current opinion as of the date appearing on the report only. Data may be subject to update and correction without notice. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the
information discussed in the reports, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Confidence Index
Consumer confidence Business Confidence
Partial
Lock
down
Complete
Lock
down