The document provides a macroeconomic forecast and update on monetary policy for Ukraine. It summarizes key indicators for 2018-2021, including real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2019 slowing from 3.3% in 2018 before picking up in future years. Inflation is forecast to remain around the 5% target. Fiscal policy will continue to be restrained with the budget deficit around 1.5% of GDP. The current account deficit is projected to remain in the 3-4% range despite counterbalancing domestic and external factors. Monetary policy has been tight but began easing in 2019 to ensure hitting inflation targets while monetary conditions ease over the forecast horizon.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, September 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
In September, Ukraine returned to the Eurobond market, issuing USD 3 bn with a maturity of 15 years at a yield of 7.375%. The return to the market happened amidst a highly supportive global market environment, but also due to regained financial stability and reform progress at home. As Ukraine repurchased outstanding bond issues due in 2019 and 2020, repayment risks have fallen.
Ukraine adopted a juridical and a pension reform in Parliament, which should accelerate the approval of another IMF loan tranche. Now much depends on the implementation of these reforms. However, a land reform has been postponed, which might reduce the amount of a prospective IMF payout.
Healthy economic growth continued: GDP increased by 2.3% yoy and 0.6% qoq in the second quarter on a cyclical rebound in private household demand and a surge in investment from low levels. The economic blockade in Donbas hit less than expected, opening an upside to our cautious GDP estimate of 1.5% growth for this year.
Inflation remained at an elevated level of 16.2% yoy in August, but with a negligible mom decline from July. Nevertheless, the higher than anticipated inflation kept the NBU from lowering further the key rate. With some fiscal loosening ahead, the NBU might even switch into reverse gear and tighten policy, i.e. hike the rate in coming months (in case of growing inflationary risks).
The UAH lost some of its strength on seasonal factors moving higher to USD/UAH 26.60. Further depreciation risks are partly mitigated by the improved external financing situation given the recent bond issue.
From ELANA Trading: Macroeconomic and Market Outlook 2015 „Bulgaria: Back on ...ELANA Group
This research report offers a thorough view on the major macroeconomic trends in Bulgaria, looking also into all internal and external factors such as crisis in Russia and Ukraine, as well as Greece turmoil. The outlook includes a snapshot of the Bulgarian stock market and its movers & shakers as well as ELANA Trading analysts top picks.
Some analysts points:
- We are cautious for 2015, but looking for a GDP growth pick up in 2016.
- Factors to watch during in 2015 would be the first decisive moves for reforms of the new coalition government, Greece and the crisis in Ukraine.
- The recent capital market decline provides good buying opportunities in various sectors as banks and financial services, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, etc.
- Upcoming IT IPO to boost market vitality.
This forecast was done in a highly volatile environment and under assumptions that may not turn out to be true. We assume most of the economic activity restrictions to be lifted by the end of the second quarter. We expect substantial damage to the economy from domestic restrictions and lower external demand. A gradual recovery is expected in the second half of 2020, but economic activity will remain lower than the pre-crisis level. We project real GDP to fall by 5.9% in 2020. Consumer inflation is forecasted to accelerate only to 7.5% yoy in December as weak demand will limit the impact of higher inflation expectations and weaker hryvnia. We used UAH 28.7 per USD as an average 2020 exchange rate in forecast calculations.
The purpose of the Financial Stability Report is to provide an overview of the developments in Latvia's financial system and the systemic risks potentially threatening the stability of Latvia's financial system.
The Report includes several boxes on specific topics: development and structure of credit institution customer payments, credit institutions' search for new funding sources via web platforms, branchification, growing importance of the state support programme for house purchase, assessment of household access to credit, potential impact of Brexit on Latvia's financial sector as well as credit institutions' capacity to absorb potential liquidity, market and credit risk shocks.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. September 2020Latvijas Banka
The Macroeconomic Developments Report is published on a semi-annual basis.
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, September 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
In September, Ukraine returned to the Eurobond market, issuing USD 3 bn with a maturity of 15 years at a yield of 7.375%. The return to the market happened amidst a highly supportive global market environment, but also due to regained financial stability and reform progress at home. As Ukraine repurchased outstanding bond issues due in 2019 and 2020, repayment risks have fallen.
Ukraine adopted a juridical and a pension reform in Parliament, which should accelerate the approval of another IMF loan tranche. Now much depends on the implementation of these reforms. However, a land reform has been postponed, which might reduce the amount of a prospective IMF payout.
Healthy economic growth continued: GDP increased by 2.3% yoy and 0.6% qoq in the second quarter on a cyclical rebound in private household demand and a surge in investment from low levels. The economic blockade in Donbas hit less than expected, opening an upside to our cautious GDP estimate of 1.5% growth for this year.
Inflation remained at an elevated level of 16.2% yoy in August, but with a negligible mom decline from July. Nevertheless, the higher than anticipated inflation kept the NBU from lowering further the key rate. With some fiscal loosening ahead, the NBU might even switch into reverse gear and tighten policy, i.e. hike the rate in coming months (in case of growing inflationary risks).
The UAH lost some of its strength on seasonal factors moving higher to USD/UAH 26.60. Further depreciation risks are partly mitigated by the improved external financing situation given the recent bond issue.
From ELANA Trading: Macroeconomic and Market Outlook 2015 „Bulgaria: Back on ...ELANA Group
This research report offers a thorough view on the major macroeconomic trends in Bulgaria, looking also into all internal and external factors such as crisis in Russia and Ukraine, as well as Greece turmoil. The outlook includes a snapshot of the Bulgarian stock market and its movers & shakers as well as ELANA Trading analysts top picks.
Some analysts points:
- We are cautious for 2015, but looking for a GDP growth pick up in 2016.
- Factors to watch during in 2015 would be the first decisive moves for reforms of the new coalition government, Greece and the crisis in Ukraine.
- The recent capital market decline provides good buying opportunities in various sectors as banks and financial services, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, etc.
- Upcoming IT IPO to boost market vitality.
This forecast was done in a highly volatile environment and under assumptions that may not turn out to be true. We assume most of the economic activity restrictions to be lifted by the end of the second quarter. We expect substantial damage to the economy from domestic restrictions and lower external demand. A gradual recovery is expected in the second half of 2020, but economic activity will remain lower than the pre-crisis level. We project real GDP to fall by 5.9% in 2020. Consumer inflation is forecasted to accelerate only to 7.5% yoy in December as weak demand will limit the impact of higher inflation expectations and weaker hryvnia. We used UAH 28.7 per USD as an average 2020 exchange rate in forecast calculations.
The purpose of the Financial Stability Report is to provide an overview of the developments in Latvia's financial system and the systemic risks potentially threatening the stability of Latvia's financial system.
The Report includes several boxes on specific topics: development and structure of credit institution customer payments, credit institutions' search for new funding sources via web platforms, branchification, growing importance of the state support programme for house purchase, assessment of household access to credit, potential impact of Brexit on Latvia's financial sector as well as credit institutions' capacity to absorb potential liquidity, market and credit risk shocks.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. September 2020Latvijas Banka
The Macroeconomic Developments Report is published on a semi-annual basis.
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
OTP Bank_Flash report 20170707_hu_deficitOTP Bank Ltd.
Az első negyedévben rekord többletet mutatott a költségvetés ESA egyenlege. A második negyedévi pénzforgalmi hiányt az EU-s források megelőlegezése okozta, a költségvetés alapfolyamatai továbbra is kedvezőek.
AS/COA
680 Park Avenue
New York, NY
View map
February 18, 2015
Registration: 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m.
Conference: 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m.
AS/COA, ANBIMA, and BRAiN held an on-the-record presentation by Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance of Brazil.
Welcoming Remarks:
Randy Melzi, Senior Director, Public Policy Programs and Corporate Relations, AS/COA
José Carlos Doherty, Director, BRAiN; Head, ANBIMA
Speaker:
Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance, Brazil
Download the presentation.
Event Information: Diogo Ide | dide@as-coa.org | 212-277-8352
COA Corporate Membership: Monica Vieira | mvieira@as-coa.org | 212-277-8344
Press Inquiries: Adriana La Rotta | alarotta@as-coa.org | 212-277-8384
"Economic and Financial Sector Overview" is a study produced by Banco Central.
I always end up checking those information reports to make my studies and decisions. It's so important that I decided to put in a visible and easy access platform.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Economic outlook for 2018 – more bumps in the road?DIXI Group
Macro FI CEE Special Ukraine
After a rather stable 2017, 2018 could become bumpier as elections and debt payments loom in 2019
Relations with foreign partners more strained on limited reform zeal and less patience of partners
Baseline scenario of moderate growth, somewhat weaker UAH and a return to single digit infl ation
No rating and outlook change expected; tight Eurobonds spreads might see a correction in the short run
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
On 13 July, the Ukrainian Parliament approved a draft of the pension reform in the first reading. Thus, Ukraine moved one step closer to the next IMF tranche, and in our base case scenario the fourth review may be accomplished and the fifth tranche be released this fall.
After the decline in industrial output earlier this year, recent development shows a return to growth. Retail sales dynamics remain strong. Nevertheless, the National Bank slightly cut its growth estimate for this year on the weak H1 and a weaker harvest estimate. We keep our conservative growth estimate of 1.5% yoy for the time being.
Inflation surprised to the upside to 15.6% on higher food prices in June. We now see growing risk that inflation may leave targeted for this year range (8% yoy +/-2 pp) from the upper bound, i.e. resulting in low double-digit inflation at year-end. So far, we keep our 2017 forecast at 9.5% yoy (eop).
UAH strengthened vis-a-vis the dollar in July, falling below the level of USD/UAH 26 and allowing the NBU to increase FX reserves to almost USD 18 bn. With inflation risks elevated, the NBU stopped cutting its key rate and kept it stable at 12.5% in July and August. However, some additional restrictions on the FX market were removed or may be removed soon.
Flash Report - Government Deficit - 6 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2017-ben a kormányzat előzetes bejelentésének megfelelően 2% volt a költségvetés hiánya. Az erős bér- és fogyasztás-bővülés miatt gyorsan nőttek az adóbevételek. A kiadási oldalon a legnagyobb mértékben, 54%-kal a beruházások nőttek, illetve az év végi, diszkrecionális döntéseknek köszönhetően a dologi kiadások. A beruházások várhatóan átmeneti megugrása és az év végi diszkrecionális döntések nélküli egyenleg továbbra is egyensúly közeli. Az államadósság – amely immár az Exim Bank adatait is tartalmazza – a GDP 73.6%-ára mérséklődött az előző évi 76%-ról, dacára annak, hogy az EU-s projektek előfinanszírozása az eredmény-szemléletűnél érdemben magasabb pénzforgalmi deficitet eredményezett. Előretekintve a kockázatok – részben a választásokhoz kötődő bizonytalanság miatt – a deficit növekedése irányába mutatnak.
Slight optimism outshines numerous challenges
As 2016 rolls to a close, the Ukrainian economy is finding stronger footing. The pace of recovery remains slow, but it looks sustainable and the chances of a meaningful acceleration in 2017 are high. Inflation is still in the high single digits, but a hike in regulated utility tariffs should boost it to near the NBU’s 12% target by year-end. The FX market is nearly balanced and the NBU is taking advantage of slight surpluses to replenish reserves. Ukraine’s external accounts look reasonably strong but they still pose a risk to the economy; any external shock could trigger market jitters. Smooth relations with the IMF and other IFIs remain a key precondition for the recovery of investor and domestic consumer confidence.
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, August 2017DIXI Group
Highlights
Given the expectation of improved debt dynamics on the back of structural reforms, Moody’s has upgraded Ukraine’s sovereign rating from Caa3 to Caa2 and changed the outlook to “positive” from “stable”. The rating change is a positive event supporting Ukraine in the intent to return to the market. We expect Ukraine to issue Eurobonds this fall after the finalization of the IMF review.
Ukraine’s economy grew by 2.4% yoy in Q2 after +2.5% yoy in Q1, whereas in seasonally adjusted terms growth amounted to 0.6% qoq. This has been better than we had anticipated. Growth has likely been driven by private household demand, but also investment dynamics improved considerably. We estimate economic growth of at least 1.5% yoy in 2017, with upside risks to this forecast.
Industrial production declined by 2.6% yoy in July owing to a downturn in the mining and energy sector, while the expansion of retail sales slowed down – from 9% yoy in June to 6.8% yoy in July. In July, the growth of consumer price index (CPI) slowed down to 0.2% mom from 1.6% mom, but due to the base effect, inflation accelerated from 15.6% yoy to 15.9% yoy.
UAH strengthening persisted in most of August against the backdrop of significant tax payments that reduced LCY liquidity and forced exporters to sell more FCY. Nevertheless, most recently devaluation pressures emerged. We remain cautious, and keep our year-end USD/UAH forecast at 28.00 (eop) for the time being. Meanwhile, the liberalization of the FX market by removing administrative measures kept going.
OTP Bank_Flash report 20170707_hu_deficitOTP Bank Ltd.
Az első negyedévben rekord többletet mutatott a költségvetés ESA egyenlege. A második negyedévi pénzforgalmi hiányt az EU-s források megelőlegezése okozta, a költségvetés alapfolyamatai továbbra is kedvezőek.
AS/COA
680 Park Avenue
New York, NY
View map
February 18, 2015
Registration: 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m.
Conference: 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m.
AS/COA, ANBIMA, and BRAiN held an on-the-record presentation by Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance of Brazil.
Welcoming Remarks:
Randy Melzi, Senior Director, Public Policy Programs and Corporate Relations, AS/COA
José Carlos Doherty, Director, BRAiN; Head, ANBIMA
Speaker:
Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance, Brazil
Download the presentation.
Event Information: Diogo Ide | dide@as-coa.org | 212-277-8352
COA Corporate Membership: Monica Vieira | mvieira@as-coa.org | 212-277-8344
Press Inquiries: Adriana La Rotta | alarotta@as-coa.org | 212-277-8384
"Economic and Financial Sector Overview" is a study produced by Banco Central.
I always end up checking those information reports to make my studies and decisions. It's so important that I decided to put in a visible and easy access platform.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Economic outlook for 2018 – more bumps in the road?DIXI Group
Macro FI CEE Special Ukraine
After a rather stable 2017, 2018 could become bumpier as elections and debt payments loom in 2019
Relations with foreign partners more strained on limited reform zeal and less patience of partners
Baseline scenario of moderate growth, somewhat weaker UAH and a return to single digit infl ation
No rating and outlook change expected; tight Eurobonds spreads might see a correction in the short run
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
On 13 July, the Ukrainian Parliament approved a draft of the pension reform in the first reading. Thus, Ukraine moved one step closer to the next IMF tranche, and in our base case scenario the fourth review may be accomplished and the fifth tranche be released this fall.
After the decline in industrial output earlier this year, recent development shows a return to growth. Retail sales dynamics remain strong. Nevertheless, the National Bank slightly cut its growth estimate for this year on the weak H1 and a weaker harvest estimate. We keep our conservative growth estimate of 1.5% yoy for the time being.
Inflation surprised to the upside to 15.6% on higher food prices in June. We now see growing risk that inflation may leave targeted for this year range (8% yoy +/-2 pp) from the upper bound, i.e. resulting in low double-digit inflation at year-end. So far, we keep our 2017 forecast at 9.5% yoy (eop).
UAH strengthened vis-a-vis the dollar in July, falling below the level of USD/UAH 26 and allowing the NBU to increase FX reserves to almost USD 18 bn. With inflation risks elevated, the NBU stopped cutting its key rate and kept it stable at 12.5% in July and August. However, some additional restrictions on the FX market were removed or may be removed soon.
Flash Report - Government Deficit - 6 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2017-ben a kormányzat előzetes bejelentésének megfelelően 2% volt a költségvetés hiánya. Az erős bér- és fogyasztás-bővülés miatt gyorsan nőttek az adóbevételek. A kiadási oldalon a legnagyobb mértékben, 54%-kal a beruházások nőttek, illetve az év végi, diszkrecionális döntéseknek köszönhetően a dologi kiadások. A beruházások várhatóan átmeneti megugrása és az év végi diszkrecionális döntések nélküli egyenleg továbbra is egyensúly közeli. Az államadósság – amely immár az Exim Bank adatait is tartalmazza – a GDP 73.6%-ára mérséklődött az előző évi 76%-ról, dacára annak, hogy az EU-s projektek előfinanszírozása az eredmény-szemléletűnél érdemben magasabb pénzforgalmi deficitet eredményezett. Előretekintve a kockázatok – részben a választásokhoz kötődő bizonytalanság miatt – a deficit növekedése irányába mutatnak.
Slight optimism outshines numerous challenges
As 2016 rolls to a close, the Ukrainian economy is finding stronger footing. The pace of recovery remains slow, but it looks sustainable and the chances of a meaningful acceleration in 2017 are high. Inflation is still in the high single digits, but a hike in regulated utility tariffs should boost it to near the NBU’s 12% target by year-end. The FX market is nearly balanced and the NBU is taking advantage of slight surpluses to replenish reserves. Ukraine’s external accounts look reasonably strong but they still pose a risk to the economy; any external shock could trigger market jitters. Smooth relations with the IMF and other IFIs remain a key precondition for the recovery of investor and domestic consumer confidence.
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, August 2017DIXI Group
Highlights
Given the expectation of improved debt dynamics on the back of structural reforms, Moody’s has upgraded Ukraine’s sovereign rating from Caa3 to Caa2 and changed the outlook to “positive” from “stable”. The rating change is a positive event supporting Ukraine in the intent to return to the market. We expect Ukraine to issue Eurobonds this fall after the finalization of the IMF review.
Ukraine’s economy grew by 2.4% yoy in Q2 after +2.5% yoy in Q1, whereas in seasonally adjusted terms growth amounted to 0.6% qoq. This has been better than we had anticipated. Growth has likely been driven by private household demand, but also investment dynamics improved considerably. We estimate economic growth of at least 1.5% yoy in 2017, with upside risks to this forecast.
Industrial production declined by 2.6% yoy in July owing to a downturn in the mining and energy sector, while the expansion of retail sales slowed down – from 9% yoy in June to 6.8% yoy in July. In July, the growth of consumer price index (CPI) slowed down to 0.2% mom from 1.6% mom, but due to the base effect, inflation accelerated from 15.6% yoy to 15.9% yoy.
UAH strengthening persisted in most of August against the backdrop of significant tax payments that reduced LCY liquidity and forced exporters to sell more FCY. Nevertheless, most recently devaluation pressures emerged. We remain cautious, and keep our year-end USD/UAH forecast at 28.00 (eop) for the time being. Meanwhile, the liberalization of the FX market by removing administrative measures kept going.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2019Latvijas Banka
This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, June 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
The government drafted a pension reform and introduced the bills to the Parliament. In its updated memorandum, the IMF is also demanding a land reform and additional measures against corruption. We think the next IMF tranche may be released after the summer break, likely in autumn 2017.
Recent economic indicators point to better economic conditions: Q1 GDP has been slightly revised upwards to 2.5% yoy, and the May figures for industrial production (1.2% yoy) and retail sales (10.7% yoy) have been better than expected. Nevertheless, with cumulative industrial output down in the first five months of 2017, we lowered our GDP growth estimate for 2017 from 2% to 1.5% yoy.
The inflation rate accelerated to 13.5 % yoy in May, due to higher food prices. Nevertheless, the National Bank may cut the key interest rate further by 50bp to 12% in order to support economic growth at its next meeting on Thursday, 6 July.
FX reserves reached USD 17.6 bn in end-May, given a favourable situation on the FX market allowing for FX purchases. The exchange rate traded rather stable around USD/UAH 26.
The NBU tweaked FX market regulation, simplifying investment abroad and FX forward transactions as well as introducing electronic FX transfer licenses for individuals.
Az eddig beérkezett adatok alapján akár 5%-kal is nőhetett a hazai GDP az első negyedévben. Az év első felében nagyon erős dinamikára számítunk, a második félévben azonban az egyre intenzívebb import-kereslet és bázishatás miatt már lassulni fog a gazdaság bővülése, 2019-ben pedig 3%-ig mérséklődhet a növekedési ütem.
On 21 September 2018, Scope affirmed the US sovereign rating at AA/ Stable. What are the factors which contribute to the United States losing its AAA rating?
According to our opinion 2018 is going to be a crucial pivot year that will define Greek economic standards for the years to come.
In some respects 2018 can be characterized as a “low risk” year with no new fiscal measures to be enacted and very low debt redemptions which minimizes the refinancing risk of the Greek Sovereign.
At the same time though 2018 is also a “decisions time” as a number of very significant issues - that up to now have been postponed - have to be decided. The agenda includes the debt sustainability / restructuring issue, the conclusion of 4th review, the precautionary line / cash buffer decision as well as the post-program monitoring process.
Global growth is moderatng as the recovery in trade
and manufacturing actvity loses steam. Despite
ongoing negotatons, trade tensions among major
economies remain elevated. These tensions, combined
with concerns about sofening global growth prospects, have weighed on investor sentment and contributed to
declines in global equity prices. Borrowing costs for
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
have increased, in part as major advanced-economy
central banks contnue to withdraw policy
accommodaton in varying degrees. A strengthening
U.S. dollar, heightened financial market volatlity, and
rising risk premiums have intensified capital outlow
and currency pressures in some large EMDEs, with
some vulnerable countries experiencing substantal
financial stress. Energy prices have fluctuated markedly,
mainly due to supply factors, with sharp falls toward
the end of 2018. Economic actvity in the Euro Area has
been somewhat weaker than previously expected,
owing to slowing net exports. EMDE growth edged
down to an estmated 4.2 percent in 2018 as a number
of countries with elevated current account deficits
experienced substantal financial market pressures and
appreciable slowdowns in actvity. In low-income
countries (LICs), growth is firming as infrastructure
investment contnues and easing drought conditons
support a rebound in agricultural output.
Diaporama utilisé par Vincent Juvyns, stratégiste des marchés chez JP Morgan Asset Management, lors du webinaire qu'il a animé pour le Forum financier, le 12 octobre 2020.
Сборник «Глобальные тенденции 2030: Альтернативные миры» (Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds) – пятый выпуск докладов Национального Совета по разведке США, направленных на формирование основных представлений о будущем.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
Financial and legal partner in Poland (FLP) represent:
Review of financial news from Europe, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and the World from the leading world media.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Abhay Bhutada Leads Poonawalla Fincorp To Record Low NPA And Unprecedented Gr...Vighnesh Shashtri
Under the leadership of Abhay Bhutada, Poonawalla Fincorp has achieved record-low Non-Performing Assets (NPA) and witnessed unprecedented growth. Bhutada's strategic vision and effective management have significantly enhanced the company's financial health, showcasing a robust performance in the financial sector. This achievement underscores the company's resilience and ability to thrive in a competitive market, setting a new benchmark for operational excellence in the industry.
Abhay Bhutada Leads Poonawalla Fincorp To Record Low NPA And Unprecedented Gr...
Macroeconomic forecast and monetary policy update
1. Macroeconomic Forecast and
Monetary Policy Update
Kyiv, 09 July 2019
Sergiy Nikolaychuk
Director of Monetary Policy and Economic
Analysis Department
3. The Ukrainian economy has been recovering at a solid pace
despite military conflict headwinds
In 2018, GDP grew by 3.3% thanks to favorable terms of trade, robust domestic demand and
record harvest of crops
In 2019, the growth is forecast to temporarily decelerate to 2.5% due to waned effect of record
high harvest, less benign external conditions and tight monetary and fiscal policies
In the forthcoming years, the growth will pick up as political uncertainty abates and monetary
policy eases
Compared with April forecast: better terms of trade, easier global financial conditions, stronger
domestic demand, higher grains harvest
Contributions to Real GDP Growth, pp
Source: SSSU; NBU estimates and forecast (April 2019 IR).
3
-9.8
2.4 2.5 3.3 2.5 2.9 3.7
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Consumption Investment
Net exports Inventories
GDP
Source: SSSU, NBU staff estimates.
Index of Key Sectors Output, cumulative, % yoy
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
05.17 11.17 05.18 11.18 05.19
Agriculture Industry Construction
Domestic Trade Transport
1.9
IKSO, % yoy
4. Fiscal policy has largely been in check over the last four years;
in 2019-2021, fiscal policy will continue to be restrained
Consolidated Budget Balance, % of GDP Public Sector Deficit, UAH bn, and Public
Debt-to GDP Ratio, %
Source: MFU, NBU calculations and forecast (Inflation Report
April 2019).
Source: MFU, SSSU, NBU calculations and forecast
(Inflation Report April 2019).
In 2018, the general government deficit moderately widened, spurred by larger social spending (pension
expenditures and wages) and capital expenditures. However, the deficit remained well below the IMF
target and the primary surplus was preserved
Given also favorable FX market performance, this helped the public debt to GDP ratio to slide further,
gradually approaching 60% threshold
The consolidated fiscal deficit is forecast to remain in the range of 1.5% of GDP in 2019-2021 primarily
because of the Government's limited capacity to raise its public debt during the peak pay-off period
4
-4.5
-1.6
-2.3
-1.4
-1.9 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Structural balance excluding transfers with NBU
Cyclical balance
Total balance
Primary balance
"+" surplus
61
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Bank recapitalization & other
Naftogaz
General government deficit
Public debt, % of GDP (RHS)
5. CA deficit remains in the range of 3-4 percent of GDP as domestic
and external factors counterbalance each other
Imports continues growing fast, driven by solid consumer and investment demand
In 2019, CA deficit is almost unchanged: better ToT and large stocks of record high corn harvest
are offset by the slowdown of MTP’s economies which puts drag on exports and remittances
In 2020-2021, CA deficit will widen due to a decrease in pipeline transportation, lower than record
2018 grain harvests and reviving investment activity after the elections
Compared with April forecast: better terms of trade, higher grains harvest, stronger domestic
demand, precautionary gas imports
Current Account Balance
Source: NBU, Inflation Report April 2019.
Trade Balance and REER of the Hryvnia
Source: NBU, Inflation Report April 2019.
5
-2.1
-6.0
-7.9
-8.7
-3.4
1.8
-1.4 -2.2
-3.4 -3.3-3.6 -4.0
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
USD bn as % of GDP
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Energy balance, USD bn
Trade balance (w/o energy goods), USD bn
REER (12.1999=1), RHS
6. After the 2014-2015 crisis, investment demand was the initial
driver for the recovery in imports
CA Balance and Imports by BEC, 2008=100 CA Balance and Imports by BEC, 2013=100
During 2009 - 2013, buoyant consumer demand, mainly on cars and non-durable consumer
goods, was the key factor, driving the widening of the current account deficit
Investment growth also contributed in 2011-2012, but it was partly boosted by Euro-2012 football
championship projects
After 2014-2015 crisis, the CA deficit has been also gradually widening. However, unlike in the
previous periods, it was mainly driven by robust investment activity, including due to high demand
from agricultural sector and green energy projects
Source: NBU. Source: NBU.
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Capital goods
Intermediate consumption goods
Consumer goods
Current Account Balance,
% of GDP (RHS)
6
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Capital goods
Intermediate consumption goods
Consumer goods
Current Account Balance,
% of GDP (RHS)
7. In 2018, reserves reached a 5-year maximum. However, large public
debt repayments will put a drag on further reserve accumulation
In 2018, FA inflows were generated by both public and private sectors, exceeding the CA deficit.
This allowed to increase international reserves to a 5-year maximum of USD 20.8 billion as of
end-2018
In 2019-2021, FDIs and debt capital inflows to the private sector are forecast to increase.
However, due to peak repayments of external public debt, the overall balance of payments is
expected to be in a moderate deficit, limiting the building up of reserves
Compared with April forecast: termination of IMF SBA program, higher portfolio investments into
Government bonds in UAH
Gross International Reserves, USD bnFinancial Account (FA): Net Inflows, USD bn
Source: NBU, Inflation Report April 2019. Source: NBU, Inflation Report April 2019.
7
3.3 2.6 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.0
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Others FX cash outside banks
Public sector Net private debt flows
FDI FA balance (IR January)
FA balance (IR April)
13.3
15.5
18.8
20.8 21.2 21.9 21.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Reserves, $ bn (IR April)
Months of future imports, RHS (IR April)
8. Monetary policy stance in 2017-2019 remained rather tight. The real key policy rate ranged from
10% to 11% in 2019 – far above the neutral level (3-4%)
Yields on hryvnia government bonds in real terms are among the highest across emerging markets
Real interest rates are high compared with other EM countries
Nominal and Real NBU Key Policy Rate*, % pa
* Nominal rate is NBU’s average rate on 14-days CDs.
** Real ex ante is nominal rate deflated by inflation expectations
of fin. analysts.
# Real ex post is nominal rate deflated by current core CPI.
Source: NBU.
Real Sovereign Bond Yields in Selected EM*, % pa
* Real interest rate is calculated as a difference of average
monthly 1-year bond yield on the primary market and inflation
forecasts as of end-2019. For Ukraine ‒ based on NBU`s
estimates.
Source: DekaBank, Consensus Economics, Thomson Reuters,
Bloomberg, NBU`s estimates.
8
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
01.17 07.17 01.18 07.18 01.19 05.19
Nominal* Ex ante** Ex post#
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Ukraine
SouthAfrica
Indonesia
Russia
India
Brazil
Thailand
Turkey
China
Romania
Chile
Poland
Hungary
Argentina
December 2018
June 2019
J.P. Morgan EMBI+ (June 2019)
9. 9
In April 2019, the NBU started the easing cycle.
However, its evolution is contingent on inflation risks
17.5
18.0
18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0
17.5
17.5
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
07.18 08.18 09.18 10.18 11.18 12.18 01.19 02.19 03.19 04.19 05.19 06.19
Key rate, %
Monetary Policy stance is sufficiently tight to bring
inflation back to its mid-term target
Monetary Policy
tightening as a
reaction to:
higher-than-
expected domestic
demand
less interest on the
side of investors in
Ukrainian
sovereign debt
inflation
expectations that
continue to exceed
the NBU’s inflation
targets
Monetary Policy
tightening in
order:
to neutralize
increase in
external risks:
higher pressure
on the
currencies of
developing
economies due
to capital outflow
escalation of
large-scale trade
conflicts
Monetary Policy easing
because of:
Postponing of Monetary Policy
easing because of:
steadily declining of
inflation towards the target
of 5%;
benign situation on the
financial market;
improving inflation
expectations;
other factors behind the
further decline in inflation:
• slower growth in wages;
• hryvnia appreciation;
• lower global prices for
natural gas;
• larger supply of both
domestic and imported
food products
signs of higher-than-expected
domestic demand
raised threats to financial stability
due to:
• speculative information about
external public debt in the media;
• delay of the IMF financial support;
• current court proceedings
(PrivatBank)
external risks that remain relevant:
• global recession and lower
commodity prices;
• escalation of trade conflicts;
• uncertainty over the volume of gas
transit through Ukraine;
• military conflict development and
new trade restrictions introduced
by Russia
10. Monetary conditions ease on forecast horizon, but ensure the
hitting inflation targets in 2020-21
10
in ( ) – previous forecast (IR, January 2019)
average 2018 2019 2020 2021
REER,
% change
5.9 8.6
(+6.3)
-0.4
(-0.6)
-1.8
(-2.0)
REER index (1.2016=1)
(Compared with April forecast:
better ToT, higher portfolio investments
into Government bonds in UAH)
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
IV.16 IV.17 IV.18 IV.19 IV.20 IV.21
REER REER previous
appreciation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
IV.16 IV.17 IV.18 IV.19 IV.20 IV.21
real policy rate neutral
Real policy rate*, %
* deflated by model-based inflation expectations
!!! The NBU is going to publish projected
path of key policy rate in July Inflation
Report
11. The NBU remains committed to a floating exchange rate policy
The NBU continues to play an active role in the FX market, but its interventions are performed to
achieve clear and specific tasks – smooth exchange rate volatility, replenish international reserves,
and enhance monetary policy transmission
Over the last couple of years, hryvnia has strengthened against the currencies of MTP
The new currency regulation system has started working on 7 February 2019. It deregulates
investing procedures, eases cross-border transactions with currency valuables, and enlarges the
list of authorized FX operations
Reaction to FX Market Pressures: Reserves vs
Exchange Rate, as of 08.07.2019
Source: NBU calculations.
11
International Reserves and Adequacy
Criteria, %
Source: NBU calculations.
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
5
10
15
20
25
І.16 III.16 І.17 III.17 І.18 III.18 I.19 II.19
International reserves, USD bn
In months of future imports (normalized to 3m), RHS
As a ratio to 20% of broad money, RHS
As a ratio to short-term debt, RHS
In percent of composite IMF measure, RHS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
I.08 I.09 I.10 I.11 I.12 I.13 I.14 I.15 I.16 I.17 I.18 III.19
Ratio of interventions to gross reserves, %
UAH per USD (end of quarter, RHS, reverse order)
12. In 2018, consumer inflation slowed down to a 5-year minimum and
temporary surged in April-May 2019
In April - May 2019 disruptions to the supply of oil products and speculative demand for certain raw
food products due to their limited supply drove the acceleration in the growth of fuel and raw food
prices
By contrast, core inflation declined more tangibly than projected, including due to the NBU’s tight
monetary policy
Stronger Hryvnia also contributed to improving inflation expectations despite elections
12
Source: SSSU, NBU.
Headline and Core Inflation, % yoy
Source: NBU, GfK Ukraine surveys.
Inflation Expectations for the Next 12 Months, %
0
5
10
15
20
01.17 05.17 09.17 01.18 05.18 09.18 01.19 05.19
Inflation target range Headline CPI Core CPI
0
5
10
15
20
01.17 05.17 09.17 01.18 05.18 09.18 01.19 06.19
Banks Corporates
Households Financial analysts
13. Monetary policy is directed to bring inflation to the target range
in 2020
Headline CPI, % yoy
Source: NBU Inflation Report, April 2019.
13
(Compared with April forecast: stronger ER and lower gas prices vs
robust domestic demand growth)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
II.17 IV.17 II.18 IV.18 II.19 IV.19 II.20 IV.20 II.21 IV.21
Tolerance bands
Target
Current forecast
Previous forecast
Forecast
Policy
relevant
horizon
14. Key messages
Ukraine’s economy embarked on the recovery path in 2016, thanks to improved
macroeconomic management, strong support from donors, and a favorable external
environment
Disinflation successfully proceeds, but its speed is altered by idiosyncratic shocks, further
adjustment of administered prices and recovering wages and domestic demand. Tight
monetary policy will ensure inflation falls back into the target band over the forecast
horizon
Fiscal and external sustainability have improved remarkably over the last few years, but
risks remain, stemming from a peak in the domestic political cycle, potential risk of a full-
scale global trade war and global recession
The longer-term prospects of the economy remain strongly dependent on the realization
of key structural reforms, which have to tackle major weaknesses such as the poor
business climate, unfavorable demographics and deteriorating infrastructure
NBU policy efforts will focus on securing price and financial stability, revamping the
banking system and liberalizing the capital account
14