Smart Metropolia 2014, AmberExpo Gdańsk

1. Demographic change and
inter-generational solidarity
Challenges for urban management
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Bernhard Müller
Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development
(IOER), Dresden, and Technische Universität Dresden
International Smart Metropolis Congress
AmberExpo Exhibition & Convention Centre
Gdansk, Poland
October 23, 2014

2. Inter-generational solidarity?
An image from yesterday?

3. Inter-generational solidarity?
An image from yesterday?
Living experience of today?
The discussion is not new!

4. Aging:
Problems
Don’t be afraid of
being old?
Don’t be afraid of
the elderly
The war of generations
will not take place
?
1996:

5. Conflicts?
„Pensioner takes housing company to court:
rent reduced by 10 per cent because of noise
from school and playground“ (Newspaper
cutting, August 2008)
„Pensioners responsible for half of the
expenditure in the health sector“
(Newspaper cutting, August 2008)
...
Controversial discussion

6. 1. What do we know about
demographic change?

7. 1. What do we know about
demographic change?
2. What are the consequences
for cities and regions?

8. 1. What do we know about
demographic change?
2. What are the consequences
for cities and regions?
3. What are the policy responses
regarding sustainable development?

9. 1. What do we know about
demographic change?
2. What are the consequences
for cities and regions?
3. What are the policy responses
regarding sustainable development?

10. Aging –
challenge for all
local communities
and regions in
Germany
Hamburg
Source:
Calculation by IOER based on microcensus 2006
Regional diversity
Aging regions =
regions in decline?
Berlin
Frankfurt
Munich
Share of
60+ population
households
(percentage)

11. The two-fold
challenge for
communities
and regions:
- ageing and
- shrinkage
Population trends
in Germany (2005)
Stable
Shrinking
Ageing
Berlin
Hamburg
Frankfurt
Munich

12. Reason 1: Higher life expectancy – longer life

13. 4,5
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
Reason 2: Less children
Total Fertility Rate in European countries 1960-2005
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
TFR
year
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
C.
Republic
Cyprus
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Schiappacasse, Müller 2008
Drop of TFR …
… under the reproduction rate
… between the 1960s and 1990s

14. Reason 3:
Out-migration

15. Out-migration from East Germany
It is the economically active
population which leaves.

16. Women are better educated and more mobile

17. East Germany:
Unbalanced gender distribution

18. Unbalanced gender:
The example of Hamburg
Blue: Men surplus - Red: women surplus

19. Europe 1:
Less young
population
in most regions
Total Population (0-14)
EU 28
2006 - 2007 79.442.969
2012 - 2013 79.045.232
Annual growth rate - 0.1 %
Source: Eurostat

20. Europe 2:
More elderly,
especially late elderly
Population over 80
~ 4% total population
2006 20.650.300
2013 25.555.827
Annual growth rate 3.09 %
2005-2050 (EU27):
Late elderly people (80+):
+180.5 %
Source: Green Paper on
Demographic Change, 2005
Source: Eurostat

21. Europe 3:
Growing burden for
the economically
active population
2005-2030:
EU will lack 20.8 million (6.8
per cent) of working age
population
In 2030:
Roughly two active persons
(15-65) will have
to take care of one inactive
person (65+)
Source: Green Paper on
Demographic Change, 2005
Source: Eurostat

22. 1. What do we know about
demographic change?
2. What are the consequences
for cities and regions?
3. What are the policy responses
regarding sustainable development?

23. Consequences:
Changing housing markets

24. Housing markets
First time renters
(20-30 years of age)
First time buyers
(30-45 years of age)
115
100
85
70
55
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
115
100
85
70
55
40
in percant
West Germany V5
East Germany V5
Basis: 10th coordinated population projection
40
in percant
West Germany V5
East Germany V5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

25. 175
150
125
100
75
50
Demographic potential of housing demand
in Prozent
in Saxony, Germany (2000-2030)
Ersthaushaltsgründungen
Eigentumserwerb
betreutes Wohnen
First time renters
First time buyers
Very elderly people
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Source: IOER 2004
Age > 75
Age 20-30
Age 30-45

26. Standard Design Assisted Living Source: Eichener 2007

27. Dimensions of Housing for the Elderly
Constructive-technical
Measuures:
Barrier Free
Buildings
(e.g. DIN)
Communication
Technology:
Center for
Emergency Calls
(e.g. SOPHIA)
Social
Measures:
Assitance
(e.g. Assisted
Living)
Gerontologic-technologic
Measures:
Sensors,
Telemedical
Services
(e.g. Smarter
Living NRW)
Quelle: Eichener 2007

28. Consequences:
Changing housing markets
Social infrastructure

29. 88 per cent of the population can reach
the closest medium-sized town
within less than 15 minutes
Accessibility of medium-sized towns
Time required to reach a medium-sized town
or a large city by car (in minutes)

30. Only 2,3 per cent of the population in
Germany need more than 20 minutes
to reach the closest hospital
Accessibility of hospitals
Time required to reach the closest
hospital by car (2004, in minutes)

31. Housing related
infrastructure
Primary schools: Oversupply and demand
In 2015:
Every fourth primary school
in Germany is expected to be
confronted with closure
(Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung 2008)
Development of
number of pupils
in primary schools
in Germany
1995-2002 (in %)

32. Consequences:
Changing housing markets
Social infrastructure
Technical infrastructure
Transportation (esp. low density areas)

33. Transportation and Mobility
Drastic decrease of the number of school children has
severe consequences for the decrease of service quality
of public transport in rural areas

34. Consequences:
Changing housing markets
Social infrastructure
Technical infrastructure
Transportation (esp. low density areas)
Employment (missing young population)
and economic competitiveness in the future
Gender imbalances (out-migration of women)
and social consequences

35. 1. What do we know about
demographic change?
2. What are the consequences
for cities and regions?
3. What are the policy responses
regarding sustainable development?

36. For a long time

37. For a long time
Reversing the trends ?

38. Fact:
Population growth of
German municipalities
(2005-2010)
Blue: decrease
Red: increase

39. Fact:
Population growth of
German municipalities
(2005-2010)
Blue: decrease
Red: increase
Option 1:
Attracting people?

40. Option 2: Reversing migration?

41. Option 3: More children?
4,5
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
Total Fertility Rate in European countries 1960-2005
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
TFR
year
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
C.
Republic
Cyprus
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Schiappacasse, Müller 2008
Drop of TFR …
… under the reproduction rate
… between the 1960s and 1990s

42. Option 4: Attracting migrants from abroad?
Foreign migration to Germany 1950-2012
In-migration
Out-migration
Balance

43. Option 5:
Changing the pictures in our minds …

44. Today’s perception of aging –
dominated by old traditions?
Homogeneous phase
in life cycle (= burden)?
-> “Right way” of aging
as withdrawing and
focusing on private life

45. Today’s perception of aging –
dominated by old traditions?
Active ageing

46. We have to distinguish
the 3rd from the
4th phase of life
(Paul Baltes)

47. Option 5:
Changing the pictures in our minds …
… and adopting a new perspective
on demographic change and the ageing society

48. Aging
New challenges – new chances
Akademiengruppe Altern in Deutschland
(Academy Group on Aging in Germany):
Productivity and life-long learning

49. Aging: New Challenges
New Opportunities
Higher life expectation -
Differentiation between third and fourth phase of life
Examples:
• „Silver Economy“ – new market
• Productivity – Extension and flexibility of
work life span
• Active aging and self-determined life –
lifelong learning
• Voluntarism - new fields of activities
• Challenges – new solutions

50. Variety of
approaches
and initiatives:
Federal Government
State Governments
Municipalities
Foundations
NGOs
Industry
Model projects
Contests for
Good Practice

51. Reaction to aging
Intergenerational housing, assisted living,
ICT, aging in place, mobile services,
modernization
Residential environment, aging oriented open
space planning
Barrier-free accessibility, neighborhood shops,
public transportation, ICT, mobile services
Health care facilities, social infrastructure,
retirement facilities
Senior citizens’ councils, voluntarism

52. National level
Policies addressing
Aging (active aging)
e.g. pension provisions, labor market, social benefits
Employment, e.g. labour market, work flexibility
Families, e.g. family friendly employment, family support,
reproductive health initiatives, child benefits
Migration, e.g. replacement immigration
Social security reforms
Economic development policies
Health care policies
Finance

53. Model Regions East
Six action fields:
Regional labor market, education and training
Regional economy
Transport infrastructure and mobility
Social infrastructure and family friendliness
New types housing and neighborhood cooperation
Culturel and regional identity

54. State Level
The Saxonian Strategy „Shaping demographic change“
Background: State Government initiative
Expert Commisssion of Governor
Recommendations of experts
Regional Forums by State Government
Discussion of recommendations
Interministerial discussion
Start of elaborating the strategy
State Directive for the support of initiatives tackling
demographic change (project implementation)
Demography training
European networking
Partnerships in Germany

55. State Level
The Saxonian Strategy „Shaping demographic change“
Strategic Goals:
Life-long learning and innovation
Regional basic services
Inter-generational cooperation
Restructuring of settlement and infrastructure
Chances of active ageing
Action Program:
e.g. demography check; strategic planning; inter-municipal
cooperation; monitoring

56. Local level
Recent debate:
political cost, lack of incentives
Initiatives, not policies
Diversity of approaches
Attraction of new inhabitants:
shrinkage reversal strategies
Dealing with problems:
crisis management
Important incentive:
National and State Integrated Urban Restructuring Programs

57. Integrated urban development strategy: Dresden

58. Relevance of model projects – creating new environments

59. Example:
The Saxonian Strategy „Shaping demographic change“
Strategic Goals:
Life-long learning and innovation
Regional basic services
Inter-generational cooperation
Restructuring of settlement and infrastructure
Chances of active aging
Action Program:
e.g. demography check; strategic planning; inter-municipal
cooperation; monitoring
Competition for projects and initiatives (funds)

60. Much has been done – there is still much to do
AgnES
Foto: Eisenhammer
Quelle: www.tagesschau.de
Quelle:
Neue Bilder
vom Altern
Ausstellungs-katalog

61. Much has been done – there is still much to do
AgnES
Foto: Eisenhammer
Quelle: www.tagesschau.de
Quelle:
Neue Bilder
vom Altern
Ausstellungs-katalog

62. Where we age is crucial to how we age!
Aging sensitive development:
Local communities for all generations –
The activating smart community of short distances and the
interlinked region oriented towards sustainable development

63. Demographic change and
inter-generational solidarity
Challenges for urban management
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Bernhard Müller
Technische Universität Dresden, Chair of Spatial Development and
Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development (IOER)
b.mueller@ioer.de

64. Where we age is crucial to how we age!
Aging sensitive development:
Local communities for all generations –
The activating smart community of short distances and the
interlinked region oriented towards sustainable development