Presentation at EASTS Conference 2009, Indonesia

1. Livestock evacuation or not:Livestock evacuation or not:
An Emergency Response
Assessment Of Natural Disasters
Dr. Thomas Wilson
Dr. André Dantas
Professor Jim Cole
Resilient Organisations Research Programme
Christchurch, New Zealand

2. or

3. How realistic areHow realistic are
our evacuationour evacuation
expectations?expectations?

4. Presentation
outline
•Context
•Logistics of livestock evacuation
•Assessment framework
•Conclusions
•Case study

5. CONTEXT

8. New Zealand

9. Context
volcanic eruptions

10. Context
What to do with livestock?
Evacuation or not?
How to deal with large volumes to be
transported?
How to coordinate efforts?
Which types of animals to evacuate?

11. Logistics of
livestock
evacuation

12. Logistics
•Warning
•Event observation
•Event assessment
•Updating
•Action
•Re-assessment
Logistics processes and decision making

13. Assessment
framework

14. Assessment
framework
•Define the livestock evacuation scenario
•Assign available trucks to affected areas
•Compute loading time
•Conduct network analysis
•Identify “safe” destinations
•Assess the livestock evacuation performance
•Decision making

15. Case
Study

16. Case
Study
Volcanic eruption scenario
Location

17. Case
Study
Volcanic eruption scenario
Distribution ash fall
Given a 50 mm ash fall:
•528 farms selected for evacuation;
•77,199 hectares;
•208 thousand cows;
•Urban centres exposed to 2mm-ash fall
considered not safe destinations;

18. Case
Study
Assignment of available trucks to affected areas
Using existing and specifically designed livestock truck and trailer
units
•Full evacuation – 5520 truck trips;
•Full efficient evacuation – 5004 truck trips; and
•Partial (50%) evacuation – 2902 truck trips.

19. Case
Study
Computation of loading time

20. Case
Study
Identification of “safe” destinations
Cows evacuated to urban centres located over 200 Km from the volcano

21. Case
Study
Network Analysis
Travel Time Total TimeEvacuation
Plan
Traffic Assignment
Method
Hours Days Hours Days
All or nothing 27,061 1,127.5 43,621 1,817.5
User optimum 27,823 1,159 44,383 1,849
1
(Full
Evacuation) System optimum 27,760 1,157 44,320 1847
All or nothing 24,162 1,007 39,174 1,632.5
User optimum 24,698 1,029 39,710 1,654.5
2
(Full efficient
evacuation) System optimum 24,641 1,027 39,653 1,652.5
All or nothing 14,013 584 22,719 947
User optimum 14,440 602 23,146 965
3
(Partial
evacuation) System optimum 14,413 601 23,119 964

22. Case
Study
Assessment of the livestock evacuation performance
Scenario
Plan
Estimated
Loading/
Unloading
Time Cost
Traffic
Assignment
Method
Estimated
Travel
Time Cost
Total Estimated
Evacuation
Transport Cost
All or nothing 1,304 2,102
User optimum 1,341 2,139
1
(Full
Evacuation)
798
System
optimum
1,338 2,136
All or nothing 1,164 1,888
User optimum 1,190 1,914
2
(Full
efficient
Evacuation)
723
System
optimum
1,187 1,911
All or nothing 675 1,095
User optimum 696 1,115
3
(Partial
evacuation)
419
System
optimum
694 1,114

23. Case
Study
Assessment of the livestock evacuation performance
Stock Trucks Required
Deadline 7 days 10 days 14 days 21 days 28 days
Evacuation
Scenario 1
264 185 132 88 66
Evacuation
Scenario 2
236 165 118 79 59
Evacuation
Scenario 3
137 97 69 46 34

24. Case
Study
Decision making
•extreme difficulty in evacuating the required number of dairy
cows in an acceptable period of time;
•likely and feasible that a small, limited evacuation of
livestock of high genetic value and diversity could be
undertaken
•need for at least a 3 month warning to implement an
effective evacuation of all livestock.

25. Conclusion
•Each type of hazard will pose different levels of logistics challenge
in terms of livestock evacuation;
•Livestock evacuation due to volcanic eruption:
•No enough time;
•Considerable vehicle requirements;
•Efficiency if sophisticated vehicle control techniques are
employed;
•Doubtful if surrounding farms can accommodate additional
cows;
•Full scale livestock evacuation should NOT be attempted;
•Mitigation options should be put in place to minimize likely losses.

26. Thank you
Dr. André Dantas
Resilient Organisations Research Programme
University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
www.resorgs.org.nz