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  1	
  
  
  
E-­commerce  Strategy:  An  empirical  
investigation  of  Dynamic  Pricing  in  the  Airline  
Industry  
  
  
  
  
Roberto  Leumann  
BIEMF  
2014  
1566306  
  
  
  
Empirical  Thesis  
Tutor:  Ferdinando  Pennarola  
  2	
  
  3	
  
Acknowledgements  
  
  
I   take   this   opportunity   to   thank   my   parents   for   the   moral   support   they   provided  
during  my  college  years.  
I  am  also  grateful  to  Prof.  Ferdinando  Pennarola  for  the  assistance  offered  during  
the  drafting  of  the  thesis  and  Prof.  Barbara  Chizzolini  for  the  precious  help  she  gave  
me  in  the  Statistical  Analysis  of  the  paper.  
In  addition,  I  want  to  express  my  sincere  gratitude  to  all  my  family  and  friends,  and  
in   particular   to   my   friend   Nico   Klaas   for   having   helped   me   developing   the   idea  
behind  this  paper.  
     
  4	
  
     
  5	
  
Table  of  Contents  
  
  
Abstract  ........................................................................................................  6  
1.  Introduction  and  Research  objectives  .....................................................  7  
2.  Related  Literature  ....................................................................................  8  
3.  The  Airline  Industry:  E-­commerce  and  Dynamic  Pricing  .......................  10  
3.1  E-­commerce  and  the  Airline  Industry  .......................................................................  10  
3.2  Dynamic  Pricing  and  the  Airline  Industry  ..................................................................  12  
3.3  Evolving  E-­commerce  and  Dynamic  Airline  Pricing:  A  Brief  Background  of  Browser  
Cookies  .......................................................................................................................  15  
4.  Methodology  ...........................................................................................  17  
4.1  Collection  Specifics  .................................................................................................  18  
4.2  SPSS  Analysis  .........................................................................................................  22  
5.  Results  ....................................................................................................  24  
5.1  Preliminary  Examination  ..........................................................................................  24  
5.2  Cookie  Analysis  ......................................................................................................  26  
5.3  Correlation  Analysis  ................................................................................................  32  
6.  Conclusions  and  Recommendations  .......................................................  33  
Appendix  A  –  Cookie-­NoCookie  price  distribution  in  No-­Frills  Carriers.  ....  36  
Appendix  B  –  Ethical,  Social  and  Legal  Consequences  of  Dynamic  Pricing  
with  Browser  Cookies  .................................................................................  38  
References  ..................................................................................................  40  
  
  
     
  6	
  
Abstract  
  
Technological  breakthroughs  are  strengthening  the  entanglement  between  retailers  
and  customers  online.    
As   digital   instruments   evolve,   firms   that   operate   online   are   modifying   their   E-­
commerce  strategies  in  order  to  adapt  themselves  to  a  market  that  changes  on  a  
continuous  base.  
Whenever   users   access   the   web   or   perform   a   research   online,   they   leave   some  
traces,   which   can   be   used   by   firms   to   enrich   the   profile   of   their   customers.   The  
ability   of   firms   is   to   make   full   use   of   these   tools   and   use   them   to   create   an  
advantage,  especially  if  these  firms  are  able  to  price  the  goods  they  sell  dynamically.  
In  this  paper  we  analyze  how  Airlines,  a  perfect  example  of  sector  in  which  dynamic  
pricing  practices  are  performed,  are  introducing  the  data  gathered  through  the  latest  
virtual  platforms  in  their  online  pricing  model.  
In   particular   we   study   the   impact   of   browser   cookies   on   the   degree   of   price  
discrimination  implemented  by  various  carriers.  
  7	
  
1.  Introduction  and  Research  objectives  
  
Information  Communication  Technology  (ICTs)  has  generated  major  changes  in  the  
way  competitive  schemes  are  organized  in  the  market  providing  firms  with  powerful  
strategic  and  tactical  tools.    
The   implementation   of   ITCs   has   evolved   along   three   main   dimensions.   Intranets  
ensured  speedy  flow  of  information  within  the  company,  Extranets  guaranteed  real-­
time   communication   with   associates   and   supported   B2B   relationships   and   the  
Internet,  most  importantly,  allowed  companies  to  interact  and  communicate  with  the  
customers.  
More   specifically,   within   the   framework   of   internet-­based   interfaces,   E-­commerce  
platforms  reshaped  the  way  many  businesses  not  only  related  with  their  customers,  
but  also  gained  precious  data  about  them.  
In  the  airline  industry,  one  of  the  most  competitive  markets  since  the  deregulation  
wave  of  the  late  70s,  E-­commerce  advancements  have  had  a  particularly  wide  range  
of  strategic  implications.    
Given   the   nature   of   the   service   provided,   Airlines   apply   a   specific   type   of   pricing  
model  called  Dynamic.    
Some  features  of  Dynamic  pricing  models,  only  conceivable  in  theory,  have  become  
commercially   feasible   only   with   the   employment   of   state-­of-­the-­Art   E-­commerce  
technologies.    
  
The  relationship  between  E-­commerce  tool  and  Dynamic  Pricing  is  the  core  interest  
of  this  paper,  whose  aim  is  to  study  the  outcome  price  offered  by  Carriers  on  their  
Airline  e-­commerce  platforms  over  time.    
The   analysis   of   these   prices   will   shed   a   light   on   the   way   new   online   tools,   more  
specifically  the  use  of  Browser  Cookies,  allowed  Airlines  to  enhance  the  degree  of  
discrimination  applied  in  their  pricing  model.  
  8	
  
Focus  is  set  primarily  on  the  current1
  online  approach  of  Scheduled  and  no-­frills  (also  
known  as  “Low  cost”)  carriers  in  the  European  Market.    
Although  the  empirical  investigation  mainly  concentrates  on  the  impact  of  cookies  on  
the   dynamic   pricing   strategy,   the   data   gathered   will   be   used   to   compare   the  
outcome  price  distribution  of  the  selected  Airlines2
.  
  
2.  Related  Literature  
  
Most  of  the  existing  literature  either  concentrates  on  Dynamic  Pricing  (mainly  with  a  
semi-­pure  quantitative  approach)  or  on  E-­commerce  strategies.  
  
Fredrik   Wallenberg,   in   his   paper   “A   Study   of   Airline   Pricing”   proposed   a   general  
airline  pricing  model  based  on  three  factors:  
•  The  origin/destination  pair.    
•  Three   advanced   purchase   periods,   depending   on   the   number   of   days  
preceding  the  departure  date.  
•  Whether  or  not  there  is  a  Saturday  stayover.    
Wallenberg   tested   the   model   against   49,000   airfare   transactions,   creating   a  
theoretical  model  with  sound  results.  
Integrating   Wallenberger’s   factors   with   those   made   possible   today   by   the   use   of  
cutting-­edge  E-­commerce  technologies  is  another  objective  of  this  paper.  
  
  
  
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
1	
  Research	
  conducted	
  in	
  the	
  period	
  April-­‐‑May	
  2014.	
  
2	
  Schedule	
  Airlines:	
  British	
  Airways	
  and	
  Lufthansa;	
  No-­‐‑frill	
  airlines:	
  Easyjet	
  and	
  Ryanair.	
  
  9	
  
  “Dynamic  pricing  —  A  future  airline  business  model”  by    Burger  B.  and  Matthias  F.,  
describes  the  feasibility  of  a  Dynamic  approach  in  the  airline  pricing  model  using  a  
“basic  dynamic  pricing  prototype  model”.  Even  though  the  paper,  written  in  2004,  
could  only  in  part  prove  the  validity  of  the  hypotheses  stated,  the  results  appear  to  
be   quite   realistic   when   compared   with   the   practices   implemented   nowadays   by  
Airline  Carriers.  
  
The   journal   article   “eAirlines:   strategic   and   tactical   use   of   ICTs   in   the   airline  
industry”   by   Dimitrios   Buhalis   provides   a   detailed   history   of   e-­Commerce   in   the  
Airline  Industry  highlighting  the  importance  of  virtual  channels  for  both  B2B  and  B2C  
relationships.  However,  having  been  written  in  2003,  the  research  does  not  include  
the  use  of  online  cookies  as  a  mean  of  market  segmentation  enhancement.  
  
Ultimately,   the   Article   “Price   Discrimination   in   E-­Commerce?   An   Examination   of  
Dynamic  Pricing  in  Name-­Your-­Own-­Price  Markets  “  published  on  MIS  Quartely  by  
Hinz,   O.,   Hann,   I.H   and   Spann,   M.,   even   though   targeted   at   a   different   market3
  
contains   interesting   facts   about   the   way   Dynamic   Pricing   is   implemented   and   the  
shortcomings  of  price  discrimination  with  respect  to  firm  image.  
Additionally,  Hinz,  O.,  Hann,  I.H  and  Spann,  M.’s  work  briefly  deals  with  the  matter  
of   browser   cookies,   which   makes   it   ideal   for   the   empirical   investigation   presented  
here.  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
3	
  In	
  their	
  paper,	
  Hinz,	
  O.,	
  Hann,	
  I.H	
  and	
  Spann,	
  M.	
  study	
  the	
  NYOB	
  markets.	
  
  10	
  
3.  The  Airline  Industry:  E-­commerce  and  Dynamic  
Pricing  
  
3.1  E-­commerce  and  the  Airline  Industry  
  
E-­commerce   –   short   for   Electronic   Commerce,   is   broadly   defined   as   “conducting  
business  online”4
.  
In   common   sense,   e-­commerce   deals   with   the   sales   aspects   of   the   more   general  
context  of  e-­business.  
However,   E-­commerce   provides   the   capability   of   performing   several   operations  
within  a  single  online  interface,  introducing  an  electronic  marketplace  where  buyers  
and  sellers  meet,  submit  bids,  keep  track  of  the  orders  and  get  to  the  end  of  the  
transaction  electronically.  
  
The  possibility  to  increase  competitive  advantage  through  ICTs  and  E-­commerce  has  
been  grasped  quite  early  by  Airline  Carriers,  whose  investments  in  this  field  started  
in  the  mid-­50s.  
The   cornerstone   of   ICT   strategy   in   the   Airline   Industry   is   the   SABRE   Computer  
Reservation   System,   used   as   a   control   system   to   generate   flight   plans,   schedule  
crews   and   track   spare   parts.   At   this   point   the   technologic   advancement   only   had  
internal  managerial  implications  allowing  companies  to  cut  organization  costs.  
After  years  of  technological  breakthroughs,  the  deregulation  wave  started  in  1979  
and  the  advent  of  the  Internet,  the  SABRE  system  gave  way  to  online  interfaces,  
initially  used  by  online  travel  agencies  and  ticket  outlets5
  and  eventually  by  Carriers  
themselves,  who  started  to  sell  tickets  directly  from  their  websites.  
  
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
4	
  Definition	
  from	
  Investopedia.	
  
5	
  Such	
  as	
  LastMinuteTravel.com,	
  Priceline.com	
  and	
  Flightserv.com.	
  
  11	
  
These  online  interfaces  incorporated  a  number  of  innovations  useful  not  only  for  the  
Carrier  but  also  for  the  clients,  such  as6
:  
§ Paperless  tickets,    
§ Proactive  and  
reactive  approach  to  pricing  strategy,    
§ Commission  capping  and  publication  of  net  fares,    
§ Financial  incentives  for  self-­booking  online,    
§ Auctions  and  online  promotions,    
§ Enhanced  customer  relationship,  
§ Context-­relevant  advertising.    
The   online   experience   of   e-­Ticketing 7
  is   thus   characterized   by   a   2-­way   B2C  
experience   where   the   Carriers   have   the   chance   to   gather   information   about   the  
customers’  preferences  with  regards  to  ticket  purchases.  
  
This   process   of   information   gathering   matched   the   main   objectives   of   Carriers,  
namely  getting  closer  to  customer  and  cutting  costs.  
Data  collection  from  customers  evolved  together  with  the  new  virtual  techniques.    
While  in  the  late  90s,  Carriers  were  able  to  simply  know  and  store  data  about  price  
and   types   of   tickets   purchased   by   clients   (historical   approach),   the   current  
implementation   of   the   latest   tools   allows   a   deeper   knowledge   of   the   customer’s  
profile.  
Two   examples   of   these   tools   are   the   Internet   Protocol   (IP)   based   systems   and  
application  of  browser  Cookies.  
The  former  encapsulates  data  mainly  about  the  geographic  position  of  the  user,  the  
latter,   started   to   be   used   in   very   recent   times,   informs   Carriers   about   previous  
searches  made  by  the  user  on  the  website.  
  
  
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
6	
  Innovation	
  listed	
  by	
  Buhalis,	
  D.	
  
7	
  Airline	
  tickets	
  bought/sold	
  online.	
  
  12	
  
Aggregating  the  bulk  of  information  available  is  a  way  to  make  the  market  price  paid  
by  the  single  client  closer  to  her  Willingness-­to-­pay  (WTP),  which  means  engaging  to  
some  degree  in  Dynamic  pricing  and  Price  Discrimination.  
  
3.2  Dynamic  Pricing  and  the  Airline  Industry  
  
Dynamic   pricing,   also   known   as   real-­time   pricing,   is   the   practice   of   setting   and  
resetting  the  price  of  a  product  almost  continuously  according  to  some  pre-­defined  
factors.   This   approach   makes   price   flexible   and   volatile   and   allows   firms   to   make  
quick  adjustments  in  response  to  market  demand  and  customers’  preferences.  
  
Dynamic   pricing   strategies   are   normally   coupled   with   the   sale   of   goods   that   are  
subjects  to  some  degree  of  decay  or  spoilage,  namely  perishable  goods.  
Among  others,  the  main  features  shared  by  perishable  products  are:  
• The  quantity  is  fixed  and  reordering  is  not  possible.    
• There  is  a  deadline  for  sales.    
• The  marginal  cost  of  selling  one  or  
more  items  is  low.    
Examples  of  perishable  goods  are  food,  electricity  and,  most  importantly  the  seats  
on  a  flight.  
  
Given   the   capacity   of   the   aircraft,   Airline   Carriers   have   a   fixed   and   pre-­specified  
number  of  seats;;  once  the  airplane  takes  off,  any  unsold  seat  becomes  valueless;;  
moreover,  the  marginal  cost  in  the  industry  is  known  to  be  very  low,  “merely  the  
cost  of  a  bag  of  peanuts  and  a  can  of  soda”8
.  
These   characteristics   make   the   Airline   Industry   particularly   suitable   for   the  
application  of  Dynamic  Pricing  strategies.    
Before   the   advent   of   e-­Commerce   and   the   era   of   Internet   consumption   however,  
revenue  management  could  only  proceed  through  static  pricing,  which  resulted  in  a  
less  efficient  strategy.    
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
8	
  From	
  “Principle	
  of	
  Economics”	
  (2011)	
  by	
  Mankiw,	
  N.	
  G.	
  
  13	
  
The  existing  literature9
  has  studied  static  pricing  models  assuming  that,  due  to  the  
multiple-­fare  classes  which  used  to10
  characterize  the  composition  of  the  seats  on  a  
plane,   demand   for   different   classes   appeared   to   have   a   sequential   time   of  
appearance,   with   requests   for   the   lowest   classes   coming   first,   followed   by   next  
lowest,  etc.    
This  assumption,  partly  verified  by  empirics,  was  (and  actually  still  is)  the  cause  of  
several  issues  such  as  over-­booking,  cancellations  and  no-­show.  A  Dynamic  pricing  
approach,  apart  from  increasing  marginal  revenues,  would  also  limit  the  impact  of  
these  problems.  
  
From   an   economic   point   of   view,   the   practice   of   dividing   customers   in   subsets  
according   to   their   common   needs   and   priorities   is   referred   to   as   Market  
Segmentation.  
In  order  to  get  involved  with  Dynamic  pricing,  the  firm  must  primarily  segment  the  
market   in   clusters   with   common   preferences.   Eventually,   the   same   good   is   priced  
differently  among  clusters  according  to  their  intrinsic  characteristics.  
In  the  case  of  Airlines,  different  passengers  have  different  reasons  to  fly  according  
to  their  needs.  In  turn,  needs  of  different  individuals  are  associated  with  different  
elasticity  of  demand.  
The   goal   of   Airlines   is   to   SEGMENT   potential   passengers   with   respect   to   their  
reasons/needs  and  only  later  CHARGE  higher  rates  to  those  with  lower  elasticity.    
  
  
A   very   basic   form   of   segmentation   consists   in   dividing   clients   between   business  
travellers  and  vacationers.  While  the  formers  have  very  little  advance  warning  and  
need  to  fly  quickly  to  a  specific  location,  vacationers  usually  take  some  time  to  plan  
their   vacations   and   are   more   flexible   with   regards   to   location.   A   better   price   is  
applied  to  the  second  group,  which  shows  higher  elasticity.    
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
9	
  Belobaba	
  (31987,	
  31989),	
  Brumelle	
  and	
  McGill	
  (31993),	
  Curry	
  (31990),	
  among	
  others,	
  
have	
  tried	
  to	
  disentangle	
  the	
  static	
  pricing	
  inefficiency	
  problem.	
  
10	
  Nowadays,	
  especially	
  in	
  the	
  case	
  of	
  Low-­‐‑cost	
  carriers,	
  the	
  seats	
  are	
  organized	
  on	
  a	
  
double-­‐‑fare	
  structure	
  (mainly	
  Economy	
  and	
  Business).	
  	
  
  14	
  
Nevertheless,  this  way  of  grouping  customers  is  quite  basic  since  a  larger  variety  of  
customer  profiles  actually  exist.    
  
This  is  where  E-­commerce  technologies  come  into  play.  Indeed  as  customers  search  
the  web,  they  leave  some  “footprints”  that  can  be  used  by  Airlines  to  refine  the  way  
they  form  clusters,  thus  making  the  discrimination  more  accurate.  
  15	
  
3.3  Evolving  E-­commerce  and  Dynamic  Airline  Pricing:  A  Brief  Background  
of  Browser  Cookies  
  
  
In   the   words   of   the   Economist   Paul   Krugmann,   Dynamic   Pricing   is   merely   a   new  
version   of   price   discrimination,   made   commercially   feasible   by   the   current  
technologies.  
E-­commerce  platforms  have  become  the  bridge  between  the  pure  theory  of  Dynamic  
Pricing  and  its  real-­world  application.    
The   mechanism   through   which   a   dynamic   model   is   applied   starts   by   defining   an  
algorithm   used   to   control   the   behavior   of   online   pricing   bots.   These   “software  
agents”  aggregate  certain  amounts  of  data  provided,  voluntarily  and  involuntarily,  by  
customers  and  produce  a  “customized”  outcome  price.  
  
Among  the  types  of  information  that  the  bots  use  to  produce  the  outcome  price,  two  
are   particularly   interesting   because   they   can   extract   information   about   the  
customers  collecting  their  “virtual  footprints”.  
  
IP  (Internet  Protocol)  number,  as  previously  stated,  contains  information  about  the  
users’  geographical  location.    
This   type   of   information   can   be   used   to   discriminate   with   respect   to   currency,  
country’s  purchasing  power  etc.  
Since  200111
,  Airlines  IT  Investments  were  channeled  in  the  direction  of  IP  based  
systems   with   the   consequence   that   this   technique   was   already   employed   on   E-­
commerce  platforms  since  2006.  
  
More  recently,  Airlines  are  updating  their  pricing  algorithm  process  making  it  process  
Browser  Cookies  as  well.  
A  Browser  Cookie  is  a  small  piece  of  data  sent  by  a  website’s  server  and  deposited  in  
the  user’s  hard  disk  via  the  browser.    
Every  time  the  user  accesses  the  website  again,  the  cookies  are  sent  by  the  browser  
back  to  the  website  in  order  to  retrieve  some  useful  data  about  previous  research.  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
11	
  As	
  reported	
  by	
  Buhalis.	
  
  16	
  
Even   though   they   were   introduced   in   order   to   ensure   a   smooth   and   user-­friendly  
surfing   experience   (cookies   save,   for   instance,   the   items   in   a   shopping   cart   or  
Facebook’s  ID  and  password),  they  also  store  several  kinds  of  procedures  done  by  
the   user,   thus   permitting   to   read   them   and   process   them   by   any   given   server  
(including   Airlines   platforms).   As   a   wise   man   once   said   “Your   past   defines   your  
future”.  
  
Discovering  whether  Pricing  bots  use  these  tools  to  update  ticket  prices  according  to  
previous  researches  made  by  the  users  is  thus  one  of  the  main  objectives  of  this  
paper.  
  17	
  
4.  Methodology  
  
The   empirical   investigation   presented   here   has   been   structured   in   order   to  
understand  the  way  Airline  carriers  choose  the  prices  to  offer  to  their  online  clients.    
The   source   of   data   is   primary,   because   the   prices   have   been   collected   by   the  
researcher   directly   from   the   Carriers’   online   agency,   namely   the   websites12
  where  
Airlines  show  their  fares  and  conclude  transactions.  
  
First  of  all,  as  previously  mentioned,  the  subject  matter  of  the  study  is  the  European  
market.    
In  order  to  make  a  more  general  evaluation,  two  Carriers  for  each  type  (Scheduled  
and  no-­frills)  have  been  selected.    
Ryanair   and   Easyjet   will   represent   No-­Frills   Carriers,   while   Lufthansa   and   British  
Airways  will  proxy  of  the  behavior  of  Scheduled  Carriers.  
  
After  having  selected  two  dates  (outbound  and  inbound  –  16th
  and  18th
  of  May  2014)  
and  3  routes,  Milan-­Barcelona,  Milan-­Berlin,  Milan-­London,  the  prices  of  these  routes  
have  been  collected  for  each  of  the  four  Airline  Carriers  over  a  period  of  34  days  
(from  April  12th
  to  May  the  15th
).  
  
In   order   to   check   for   the   use   of   Cookies   the   prices   are   collected   twice   on   two  
different   computer   systems.   In   one,   the   browser   cookies   are   daily   deleted   before  
and  after  the  price  check,  in  the  other  the  cookies  are  kept  so  to  highlight  if  the  
algorithm   enshrined   in   the   pricing   bot   of   each   company   takes   the   cookies’  
information  into  account.  
A  total  of  1604  prices  have  been  collected.  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
12	
  The	
  sources	
  are:	
  
• http://www.ryanair.com	
  
• http://www.easyjet.com	
  
• http://www.britishairways.com/travel	
  	
  	
  
• http://www.lufthansa.com	
  
  18	
  
In  order  to  reduce  the  “noise”  of  other  variables  that  may  interfere  with  the  cookies  
in  the  price  determination  process,  some  precautionary  measures  are  taken:  
• In  order  to  exclude  the  impact  of  the  IP  (Internet  Protocol)  on  the  outcome  
price,  the  researcher  used  the  TOR  (TheOnionRouter)  Browser.  This  particular  
browser,   created   to   enable   online   anonymity   and   censorship   resistance,  
conceals   the   IP   number   of   the   terminal,   making   impossible   for   the   pricing  
bots  to  locate  or  trace  Internet  activity  of  the  user.  
Obviously,  TOR  would  delete  Browser  Cookies  by  default,  so  the  settings  of  
the   browser   have   been   changed   on   one   of   the   two   computers   in   order   to  
keep  track  of  the  Cookies.  
• The  prices  have  been  checked  everyday  between  11am  and  1pm.  Moreover,  
in   order   to   exclude  daily  price  fluctuations   the   Cookie/Non-­cookie   collection  
has  always  been  performed  within  a  20-­25-­minute  timeframe.    
  
4.1  Collection  Specifics    
  
The  airline  website  is  accessed  everyday  in  the  aforementioned  timeframe  (11am-­
1pm).   Every   website   normally   has   a   research   string   requesting   basic   information  
required   to   retrieve   the   flight   (Outbound   date   and   location,   Inbound   date   and  
location  and  number  of  people  flying).    
The  following  tables  sum  up  the  initial  data  given  by  the  researcher  to  the  pricing  
bot.  All  Prices  for  each  carrier  are  Economy  Class  1-­passenger  prices13
.  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
13	
  Since	
  Lufthansa	
  further	
  distinguishes	
  Economy	
  Class	
  in	
  3	
  subgroups(Economy	
  Saver,	
  
Economy	
  Basic	
  and	
  Economy	
  Flex),	
  the	
  researcher	
  has	
  chosen	
  the	
  “Economy	
  Basic”	
  
ticket.	
  
  19	
  
Table  1  -­  Milan-­London  
Carrier   Departure  Airport   Arrival  Airport   Time  departure  
May  16th  
Time  departure  
May  18th  
Ryanair   Malpensa     Stanstead     17.15   13.50  
  
Easyjet   Malpensa   Gatwick   16:30  
  
13:05  
  
British   Linate   Heathrow   19:10  
  
12:05  
  
Luft14
   Linate   Heathrow   12:55    
  
13:30  
  
  
Table  2  -­  Milan-­Berlin  
Carrier   Departure  Airport   Arrival  Airport   Time  departure  
May  16th  
Time  departure  
May  18th  
Ryanair   Malpensa     Schönefeld   06.30  
  
08.55  
  
Easyjet   Malpensa   Schönefeld   10:40  
  
13:50  
  
British   Linate   Tegel   07:45  
  
06:55  
  
Luft15
   Linate   Tegel   06:40  
  
07:10  
  
Table  3  -­  Milan-­Barcelona  
Carrier   Departure  
Airport  
Airport   Time  departure  
May  16th  
Time  departure  
May  18th  
Ryanair   Malpensa     El  Prat  
  
08.35  
  
17.35  
  
Easyjet   Malpensa   El  Prat   06:35  
  
  
08:45  
  
  
British   Linate   El  Prat   13:2016
     11:1017
  
  
Luft18
   Linate   El  Prat   07:15  
  
12:45  
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
14	
  Flight	
  characteristics:	
  Milan-­‐‑Frankfurt	
  (FF),	
  FF-­‐‑London.	
  
15	
  Flight	
  characteristics:	
  Milan-­‐‑FF,	
  FF-­‐‑Berlin.	
  
16	
  Flight	
  characteristics:	
  Milan-­‐‑London	
  Heathrow	
  (LH),	
  LH-­‐‑Barcelona	
  
17	
  Flight	
  characteristics:	
  Milan-­‐‑Madrid,	
  Madrid-­‐‑Barcelona;	
  the	
  second	
  flight	
  is	
  on-­‐‑board	
  
an	
  
Iberia	
  (British	
  Airways’	
  Partner	
  Carrier)	
  aircraft.	
  	
  
18	
  Flight	
  characteristics:	
  Milan-­‐‑FF,	
  FF-­‐‑Barcelona.	
  
  20	
  
Once  collected  from  the  website  the  data  were  organized  in  a  Excel  sheet.  
The  following  table  provides  an  example  of  spreadsheet  organization.  It  refers  to  the  first  
day  of  data  collection  (find  column  description  in  footnote).  
Boldfaced  prices  indicate  the  ones  in  which  Cookies  are  kept.  
  
Table  4  
Price  
May  
16th19
  
Price    
May  
18th20
  
Destination
21
  
Carrier
22
  
Days  to  
Departure
23
  
Cookie  
Dummy
24
  
Cookie-­
NC  
OUT25
  
Cookie-­
NC  IN26
  
%chang
e  OUT27
  
%chang
e  IN28
  
  €  124.00       €  137.00     London   B   -­34   0              
  €  215.00       €  269.00     Berlin   B   -­34   0              
  €  449.00       €  153.00     Barcelona   B   -­34   0              
  €  89.20       €  101.64     London   E   -­34   0              
  €  98.42       €  83.12     Berlin   E   -­34   0              
  €  80.06       €  70.37     Barcelona   E   -­34   0              
  €  140.88       €  166.78     London   L   -­34   0              
  €  217.67       €  149.60     Berlin   L   -­34   0              
  €  191.88       €  187.49     Barcelona   L   -­34   0              
  €  40.79       €  98.93     London   R   -­34   0              
  €  27.53       €  33.65     Berlin   R   -­34   0              
  €  82.61       €  82.61     Barcelona   R   -­34   0              
  €  124.00       €  137.00     London   B   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%  
  €  215.00       €  269.00     Berlin   B   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%  
  €  449.00       €  153.00     Barcelona   B   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%  
  €  89.20       €  101.64     London   E   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%  
  €  98.42       €  83.12     Berlin   E   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%  
  €  80.06       €  70.37     Barcelona   E   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%  
  €  140.88       €  166.78     London   L   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%  
  €  217.67       €  149.60     Berlin   L   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%  
  €  191.88       €  187.49     Barcelona   L   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%  
  €  40.79       €  98.93     London   R   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%  
  €  27.53       €  33.65     Berlin   R   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
19	
  (1)Price	
  May	
  16th:	
  Price	
  of	
  the	
  Outbound	
  Route.	
  	
  
20	
  (2)Price	
  May	
  18th:	
  Price	
  of	
  the	
  Inbound	
  Route.	
  
21	
  (3)Destination:	
  check	
  the	
  tables	
  in	
  the	
  previous	
  page	
  for	
  further	
  info.	
  
22	
  (4)Airline	
  Carrier:	
  where	
  “B”	
  (=British	
  Airways),	
  “E”	
  (=Easyjet),	
  “L”	
  (=Lufthansa),	
  “R”(=Ryanair).	
  
23	
  (5)Days	
  to	
  Departure:	
  indicate	
  the	
  number	
  of	
  days	
  before	
  the	
  16th	
  of	
  May	
  (day	
  of	
  the	
  outbound	
  flight	
  
departure).	
  
24	
  (6)Cookie	
  dummy:	
  when	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  this	
  column	
  is	
  “0”	
  (“zero”),	
  the	
  price	
  has	
  been	
  collected	
  from	
  the	
  
browser	
  where	
  the	
  cookies	
  are	
  deleted;	
  the	
  cookies	
  have	
  been	
  kept	
  untouched,	
  when	
  the	
  value	
  is	
  “1”.	
  
25	
  (7)Cookie-­‐‑NC	
  OUT:	
  is	
  the	
  result	
  of	
  the	
  subtraction	
  of	
  the	
  price	
  WITH	
  	
  cookie	
  and	
  the	
  price	
  WITHOUT	
  
cookies	
  in	
  column	
  (1).	
  
26	
  (8)Cookie-­‐‑NC	
  IN:	
  is	
  the	
  result	
  of	
  the	
  subtraction	
  of	
  the	
  price	
  WITH	
  	
  cookie	
  and	
  the	
  price	
  WITHOUT	
  
cookies	
  in	
  column	
  (2).	
  
27	
  (9)%change	
  IN:	
  Is	
  the	
  percentage	
  change	
  between	
  WITH	
  and	
  WITHOUT	
  cookie	
  prices	
  in	
  column	
  (1).	
  
28	
  (10)%change	
  OUT:	
  Is	
  the	
  percentage	
  change	
  between	
  WITH	
  and	
  WITHOUT	
  cookie	
  prices	
  in	
  column	
  
(2).	
  Column	
  9	
  and	
  10	
  are	
  obviously	
  0	
  since	
  data	
  refers	
  to	
  the	
  first	
  day	
  of	
  investigation.	
  
	
  
  21	
  
  €  82.61       €  82.61     Barcelona   R   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%  
  22	
  
4.2  SPSS  Analysis  
  
Two  types  of  analysis  have  been  conducted  through  SPSS.  
  
In   the   first   analysis,   which   aims   at   controlling   if   there   is   a   significant   variation  
between   Cookie-­NoCookie   fares,   all   prices   gathered   for   each   carrier   (Outbound,  
Inbound  for  all  3  destinations)  have  been  aggregated  along  6  variables:  
• BritishNOCOOKIE:   All   the   prices   gathered   from   britishairways.com   on   the  
terminal  where  cookies  were  deleted.  
• BritishCOOKIE:   All   the   prices   gathered   from   britishairways.com   on   the  
terminal  where  cookies  were  NOT  deleted.  
• LuftNOCOOKIE:  All  the  prices  gathered  from  Lufthansa.com  on  the  terminal  
where  cookies  were  deleted.  
• LuftCOOKIE:   All   the   prices   gathered   from   Lufthansa.com   on   the   terminal  
where  cookies  were  NOT  deleted.  
• EasyNOCOOKIE:   All   the   prices   gathered   from   easyjet.com   on   the   terminal  
where  cookies  were  deleted.  
• EasyCOOKIE:  All  the  prices  gathered  from  easyjet.com  on  the  terminal  where  
cookies  were  NOT  deleted.  
• RyanNOCOOKIE:   All   the   prices   gathered   from   ryanair.com   on   the   terminal  
where  cookies  were  deleted.  
• RyanCOOKIE:  All  the  prices  gathered  from  ryanair.com  on  the  terminal  where  
cookies  were  NOT  deleted.  
  
A  paired-­sample  T-­test  procedure  is  run  where  the  means  of  groups  are  compared  
2-­by-­2  (Cookie  vs.  NoCookie  for  each  Carrier).  
Substantially   the   sample   mean   of   each   “NOCOOKIE”   group   is   compared   with   the  
mean  of  the  “COOKIE”  group.  
  
  
In  the  second  analysis,  which  wants  to  compare  the  price  pattern  ACROSS  Carriers  
in  order  to  detect  if  carriers  take  competitors’  behavior  into  account  when  computing  
  23	
  
the  outcome  price,  for  each  of  the  3  destinations  (Barcelona,  Berlin,  London)  a  4x4  
correlation  matrix  is  created  using  the  variables  containing  the  fares  of  the  carriers.  
The  12  variables,  created  using  only  the  NoCookie  prices  (in  this  analysis  the  impact  
of  cookies  is  no  longer  of  interest),  for  each  carrier,  are:  
• BritishBAR  
• BritishBER  
• BritishLON  
• EasyBAR  
• EasyBER  
• EasyLON  
• LuftBAR  
• LuftBER  
• LuftLON  
• RyanBAR  
• RyanBER  
• RyanLON  
Where  “BAR”  stands  for  Barcelona,  “BER”  for  Berlin  and  “LON”  for  London.  
  
  24	
  
5.  Results  
  
5.1  Preliminary  Examination    
  
An  initial  examination  of  the  price  trends  reveals  that  the  Scheduled  carriers  have  a  
price  unquestionably  higher  than  their  No-­frills  opponents,  with  British  Airways  being  
the  most  expensive  one.  
Even  though  substantially  less  expensive,  No-­frills  prices  are  way  more  volatile  than  
Scheduled  ones.    
As  we  can  see  in  Figure  1-­3  (next  page),  while  Lufthansa  and  British  Airways  often  
experience   periods   of   long   plateaus   where   the   price   remains   stable   for   4-­7   days,  
Ryanair  and  Easyjet  exhibit  small  fluctuations  on  a  daily  basis.  
  
Overall,  all  four  carriers  charge  higher  fares  as  the  departure  day  approach,  which  is  
no  surprise  in  2014.    
However,  this  phenomenon  represents  a  shift  from  the  “Last  minute  Practice”  which  
has   been   very   common   among   airline   revenue   managers   until   2004-­2006.   This  
practice   has   been   discredited   by   several   scholars   who   pointed   out   that,   in   the  
presence  of  rational  customers,  last  minute  practices  are  dangerous  because  they  
might  lead  to  an  inevitable  postponement  of  the  purchase  and  a  “a  cycle  of  price  
degradation  that  will  eventually  lead  to  [...]  destroying  the  airlines"  (Sviokla  2004).  
  
In  order  to  visualize  the  price  distribution  of  the  carriers,  six  graphs  organized  by  
Destination   (for   instance,   “Barcelona”   indicates   the   Milan-­Barcelona   flight)   are  
presented  in  the  next  page.  
The   horizontal   axis   represents   the   variable   “Days   to   departure”   while   the   vertical  
axis  corresponds  to  the  price  in  euro  of  the  ticket.  
Ryanair  and  Easyjet  are  also  presented  separately  due  to  the  fact  that  their  fares  are  
way  below  those  of  the  Scheduled  carriers.  
  25	
  
  
€ -­‐‑
€ 200,00	
  
€ 400,00	
  
€ 600,00	
  
€ 800,00	
  
€ 1.000,00	
  
€ 1.200,00	
  
-­‐‑34-­‐‑31-­‐‑28-­‐‑25-­‐‑22-­‐‑19-­‐‑16-­‐‑13-­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1
Fig.	
  1A	
  -­‐‑ Barcelona
British Easyjet Lufthansa Ryanair
€ -­‐‑
€ 200,00	
  
€ 400,00	
  
€ 600,00	
  
€ 800,00	
  
€ 1.000,00	
  
€ 1.200,00	
  
€ 1.400,00	
  
-­‐‑34-­‐‑31-­‐‑28-­‐‑25-­‐‑22-­‐‑19-­‐‑16-­‐‑13-­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1
Fig.	
  2A	
  -­‐‑ Berlin
British Easyjet Lufthansa Ryanair
€ -­‐‑
€ 100,00	
  
€ 200,00	
  
€ 300,00	
  
€ 400,00	
  
€ 500,00	
  
€ 600,00	
  
€ 700,00	
  
-­‐‑34 -­‐‑31 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑25 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑19 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑13 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1
Fig.	
  3A	
  -­‐‑ London
British Easyjet Lufthansa Ryanair
€ -­‐‑
€ 20,00	
  
€ 40,00	
  
€ 60,00	
  
€ 80,00	
  
€ 100,00	
  
€ 120,00	
  
€ 140,00	
  
€ 160,00	
  
-­‐‑34 -­‐‑31 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑25 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑19 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑13 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1
Fig.	
  1B	
  -­‐‑ Barcelona
Easyjet Ryanair
€ -­‐‑
€ 20,00	
  
€ 40,00	
  
€ 60,00	
  
€ 80,00	
  
€ 100,00	
  
€ 120,00	
  
€ 140,00	
  
€ 160,00	
  
-­‐‑34 -­‐‑31 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑25 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑19 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑13 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1
Fig.	
  2B	
  -­‐‑ Berlin
Easyjet Ryanair
€ -­‐‑
€ 20,00	
  
€ 40,00	
  
€ 60,00	
  
€ 80,00	
  
€ 100,00	
  
€ 120,00	
  
€ 140,00	
  
€ 160,00	
  
-­‐‑34 -­‐‑31 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑25 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑19 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑13 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1
Fig.	
  3B	
  -­‐‑ London
Easyjet Ryanair
  26	
  
5.2  Cookie  Analysis  
  
Coming  to  the  core  of  the  investigation,  the  cookie  analysis  compares  the  means  of  
two  groups  of  data  (for  each  carrier):  
• The  first  containing  prices  WITH  COOKIES  
• The  second  containing  prices  WITHOUT  COOKIES  
  
The   Analysis   is   based   on   the   “Paired   Sample   T-­test”   since   the   research   aims   at  
comparing   means   of   two   related   groups   where   a   different   “treatment”   has   been  
applied.    
What  is  analyzed  by  SPSS  is  the  difference  between  the  COOKIE-­NOCOOKIE  means.    
If  this  different  is  positive,  the  mean  of  the  Cookie  group  results  to  be  higher  than  
the   mean   of   the   NoCookie   one,   with   Cookie   prices   being   overall   higher   than   the  
NoCookie  ones.  
  
The  results  of  table  2  and  3  are  clear.    
The  difference  between  the  sample  means  of  the  cookie  and  no-­cookie  subgroups  is  
positive  for  all  the  Carriers.  
However,   the   results   of   No-­frills   carriers   other   than   being   way   higher   than   the  
Scheduled  ones  (1.22  and  1.02  vs.  0.71  and  0,78  –  highlighted  in  the  table),  are  also  
the  only  ones  being  significant  (2-­tails  0.00  vs.  0.87  and  0.12  -­  highlighted  in  the  
table).  
This  shows  that  both  Ryanair  and  Easyjet  significantly  use  the  information  contained  
in  the  Cookie  to  increase  the  ticket  price.  
  
  
  
  
  
    
  
Table  5  -­  Paired  Samples  Statistics    
   Mean   N   Std.  Deviation   Std.  Error  Mean  
  27	
  
Pair  1   BritishCOOKIE   419.3993   195   269.66195   19.31089  
BritishNOCOOKIE   418.6872   195   269.96225   19.33240  
Pair  2   LuftCOOKIE   214.6504   199   86.11970   6.10486  
LuftNOCOOKIE   213.8629   199   85.94224   6.09228  
Pair  3   EasyCOOKIE   89.4143   204   24.67563   1.72764  
EasyNOCOOKIE   88.1940   204   24.27706   1.69973  
Pair  4   RyanCOOKIE   79.7714   204   32.65570   2.28636  
RyanNOCOOKIE   78.7493   204   32.04974   2.24393  
  
  
  
Table  6  -­  Paired  Samples  Test    
  
Paired  Differences  
t  Mean  
Std.  
Deviation  
Std.  
Error  
Mean  
95%  Confidence  
Interval  of  the  
Difference  
Lower   Upper  
Pair  1   BritishCOOKIE  -­  
BritishNOCOOKIE  
.71210   63.89675   4.57574   -­8.31248   9.73669   .156  
Pair  2   LuftCOOKIE  -­  
LuftNOCOOKIE  
.78754   4.76236   .33760   .12179   1.45328   2.333  
Pair  3   EasyCOOKIE  -­  
EasyNOCOOKIE  
1.22029   1.81788   .12728   .96934   1.47125   9.588  
Pair  4   RyanCOOKIE  -­  
RyanNOCOOKIE  
1.02216   1.67651   .11738   .79072   1.25360   8.708  
  
  
  
Table  7  -­  Paired  Samples  Test    
   df   Sig.  (2-­tailed)  
Pair  1   BritishCOOKIE  -­  BritishNOCOOKIE   194   .876  
Pair  2   LuftCOOKIE  -­  LuftNOCOOKIE   198   .121  
Pair  3   EasyCOOKIE  -­  EasyNOCOOKIE   203   .000  
Pair  4   RyanCOOKIE  -­  RyanNOCOOKIE   203   .000  
  
  
For  what  concerns  the  magnitude  of  the  price  increase,  a  closer  look  at  the  raw  data  
would  be  useful.  
  28	
  
Even  though  the  change  in  price  is  not  registered  everyday  and  also  the  direction  of  
the  change  is  not  always  the  same  (in  the  majority  of  the  cases  the  Cookie  price  is  
higher  than  the  No-­cookie  one,  but  in  some  days  the  Cookie  price  is  lower  than  the  
No-­Cookie  one),  an  interesting  fact  is  that  the  MAGNITUDE  of  this  change  is  always  
constant.  
  
Table   829
  represents   the   data   collected   from   the   various   websites   on   day   24   (10  
days   before   departure)   and   it   is   exemplificative   of   the   normal   trend   of   the   data  
collection.  
While  British  Airways  (B)  and  Lufthansa  (L)  do  not  show  any  difference  (Cookie  –  
NoCookie   =   0),   Easyjet   (E)   shows   a   2%   increase   while   Ryanair   (R)   increases   by  
1.96%.    
These  two  percentages  (2%  and  1.96%)  represent  the  constant  magnitude  of  the  
price  change;;  indeed,  even  when  the  cookie  price  is  lower  than  the  no-­cookie  one,  
the  decrease  is  always  by  a  2%  and  a  1.96%,  respectively  for  Easyjet  and  Ryanair.  
Table  8  
Price  16th  
may  
Destinati
on  
Carrie
r  
Days  to  
departure  
Cooki
e    
Cookie-­
NK  OUT  
%change  
OUT  
  €  494.00     London   B   -­10   1   €  0.00   0.0000%  
  €  711.00     Berlin   B   -­10   1   €  0.00   0.0000%  
  €  806.00     Barcelona   B   -­10   1   €  0.00   0.0000%  
  €  105.56     London   E   -­10   1   €  2.07   2.0002%  
  €  70.88     Berlin   E   -­10   1   €  1.39   2.0003%  
  €  53.54     Barcelona   E   -­10   1   €  1.05   2.0004%  
  €  215.89     London   L   -­10   1   €  0.00   0.0000%  
  €  217.67     Berlin   L   -­10   1   €  0.00   0.0000%  
  €  316.89     Barcelona   L   -­10   1   €  0.00   0.0000%  
  €  82.58     London   R   -­10   1   €  1.59   1.9612%  
  €  58.11     Berlin   R   -­10   1   €  1.12   1.9613%  
  €  69.32     Barcelona   R   -­10   1   €  1.33   1.9615%  
Going  back  to  SPSS  results  (tables  5-­7),  there  are  some  aspects  of  the  behavior  of  
the  Scheduled  carriers  (Ryanair  and  Lufthansa)  which  are  not  grasped  by  the  Paired  
samples  T-­Test  but  definitely  need  further  examination.  
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
29	
  For	
  simplicity	
  table	
  8	
  doesn’t	
  contain	
  (like	
  table	
  4)	
  the	
  inbound	
  and	
  NoCookie	
  values.	
  
  29	
  
Table   7   shows   that   the   difference   between   the   Scheduled   Airlines   pairs   is   not  
significant,  thus  it’s  not  possible  to  state  that  Scheduled  Carriers  make  full  use  of  
Browser  Cookies.  
Nevertheless,   a   closer   look   to   the   raw   data   gives   useful   insights   about   the   more  
subtle  strategy  implemented  by  British  airways  and  Lufthansa.  
  
For  what  concerns  British  Airways,  there  is  no  difference  between  the  Cookie  and  
NoCookie  prices  with  one  exception  only.  
On  day  2  (32  days  before  departure),  precisely  after  two  days  of  cookie  collection,  
the   price   obtained   when   cookies   are   kept   untouched   jumps   by   almost   10%   with  
respect   to   the   no   cookie   price   (the   Cookie   price   is   €12.19,   €29.90,   and   €44.16  
HIGHER  than  the  no-­cookie  price  in  the  3  destination  selected).  
  
Table  9  
Price  16th  
may  
Destinat
ion  
Carrie
r  
Days  to  
Departure  
Cooki
e    
Cookie-­NK  
OUT  
%change  
OUT  
  €  136.19     London   B   -­32   1     €  12.19     9.8343%  
  €  333.90     Berlin   B   -­32   1     €  29.90     9.8343%  
  €  493.16     Barcelon
a  
B   -­32   1     €  44.16     9.8343%  
  €  87.20     London   E   -­32   1     €  2.07     2.0002%  
  €  98.28     Berlin   E   -­32   1     €  1.39     2.0002%  
  €  60.68     Barcelon
a  
E   -­32   1     €  1.05     -­2.0002%  
  €  140.88     London   L   -­32   1     €  -­         0.0000%  
  €  217.67     Berlin   L   -­32   1     €  -­         0.0000%  
  €  191.88     Barcelon
a  
L   -­32   1     €  -­         0.0000%  
  €  40.79     London   R   -­32   1     €  1.59     1.9650%  
  €  27.53     Berlin   R   -­32   1     €  1.12     1.9650%  
  €  82.61     Barcelon
a  
R   -­32   1     €  1.33     1.9650%  
  
With   respect   to   Lufthansa   instead,   the   only   day   in   which   a   non-­zero   difference  
between   Cookie   and   NoCookie   Price   is   registered   on   day   5   (29   days   before  
departure)  where  a  13.45%  increase  is  detected.  
  
  30	
  
Table  10  
Price  16th  
may  
Destinati
on  
Carrie
r  
Days  to  
Departure  
Cooki
e    
Cookie-­
NK  OUT  
%change  
OUT  
  €  124.00     London   B   -­29   1     €  -­         0.0000%  
  €  355.00     Berlin   B   -­29   1     €  -­         0.0000%  
  €  567.00     Barcelona   B   -­29   1     €  -­         0.0000%  
  €  78.02     London   E   -­29   1     €  -­         0.0000%  
  €  94.34     Berlin   E   -­29   1     €  -­         0.0000%  
  €  80.06     Barcelona   E   -­29   1     €  -­         0.0000%  
  €  244.94     London   L   -­29   1     €  29.05     13.4542%  
  €  246.96     Berlin   L   -­29   1     €  29.29     13.4545%  
  €  212.67     Barcelona   L   -­29   1     €  25.22     13.4549%  
  €  40.79     London   R   -­29   1     €  0.80     2.0005%  
  €  33.65     Berlin   R   -­29   1     €  0.66     2.0006%  
  €  82.61     Barcelona   R   -­29   1     €  1.62     2.0002%  
  
  
The  individual  results  for  British  Airways  and  Lufthansa  are  summarized  in  figure  4-­6  
(next   page),   where   the   lines   in   blue   represent   the   outcome   price   in   the   browser  
where  cookies  were  kept,  while  the  red  lines  epitomize  the  No-­Cookie  price.  
It   is   clear   that   the   lines   are   tangent   all   days   but   day   2   and   5   for   British   and  
Lufthansa,  respectively.  
  
In  case  the  reader  wants  to  compare  the  price  distribution  of  the  scheduled  airlines  
(presented  below)  with  that  of  the  No-­frills  carriers,  please  refer  to  the  Appendix  A.  
  
  
  31	
  
  
€ 380,00	
  
€ 480,00	
  
€ 580,00	
  
€ 680,00	
  
€ 780,00	
  
€ 880,00	
  
€ 980,00	
  
€ 1.080,00	
  
€ 1.180,00	
  
-­‐‑34 -­‐‑31 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑25 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑19 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑13 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1
Fig.	
  4A	
  -­‐‑ British	
  Airways,	
  
Milan	
  -­‐‑ Barcelona
Cookie NoCookie
€ -­‐‑
€ 200,00	
  
€ 400,00	
  
€ 600,00	
  
€ 800,00	
  
€ 1.000,00	
  
€ 1.200,00	
  
€ 1.400,00	
  
-­‐‑34 -­‐‑31 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑25 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑19 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑13 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1
Fig.	
  5A	
  -­‐‑ British	
  Airways,	
  
Milan	
  -­‐‑ Berlin
Cookie NoCookie
€ 100,00	
  
€ 150,00	
  
€ 200,00	
  
€ 250,00	
  
€ 300,00	
  
€ 350,00	
  
€ 400,00	
  
€ 450,00	
  
€ 500,00	
  
€ 550,00	
  
€ 600,00	
  
-­‐‑34 -­‐‑31 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑25 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑19 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑13 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1
Fig.	
  6A	
  -­‐‑ British	
  Airways,	
  
Milan	
  -­‐‑ London
Cookie NoCookie
€ 150,00	
  
€ 200,00	
  
€ 250,00	
  
€ 300,00	
  
€ 350,00	
  
€ 400,00	
  
€ 450,00	
  
€ 500,00	
  
-­‐‑34
-­‐‑32
-­‐‑30
-­‐‑28
-­‐‑26
-­‐‑24
-­‐‑22
-­‐‑20
-­‐‑18
-­‐‑16
-­‐‑14
-­‐‑12
-­‐‑10
-­‐‑8
-­‐‑6
-­‐‑4
-­‐‑2
Fig.	
  4B	
  -­‐‑ Lufthansa,	
  
Milan	
  -­‐‑ Barcelona
Cookie NoCookie
€ 150,00	
  
€ 200,00	
  
€ 250,00	
  
€ 300,00	
  
€ 350,00	
  
€ 400,00	
   -­‐‑34
-­‐‑32
-­‐‑30
-­‐‑28
-­‐‑26
-­‐‑24
-­‐‑22
-­‐‑20
-­‐‑18
-­‐‑16
-­‐‑14
-­‐‑12
-­‐‑10
-­‐‑8
-­‐‑6
-­‐‑4
-­‐‑2
Fig.	
  5B	
  -­‐‑ Lufthansa,	
  
Milan	
  -­‐‑ Berlin
Cookie NoCookie
€ 100,00	
  
€ 150,00	
  
€ 200,00	
  
€ 250,00	
  
€ 300,00	
  
€ 350,00	
  
€ 400,00	
  
€ 450,00	
  
€ 500,00	
  
€ 550,00	
  
-­‐‑34
-­‐‑32
-­‐‑30
-­‐‑28
-­‐‑26
-­‐‑24
-­‐‑22
-­‐‑20
-­‐‑18
-­‐‑16
-­‐‑14
-­‐‑12
-­‐‑10
-­‐‑8
-­‐‑6
-­‐‑4
-­‐‑2
Fig.	
  6B	
  -­‐‑ Lufthansa,	
  
Milan	
  -­‐‑ London
Cookie NoCookie
  32	
  
5.3  Correlation  Analysis  
  
The  aim  of  the  correlation  analysis  on  the  prices  is  to  understand  if  Airline  Carriers  
take  competitors’  price  into  account  when  computing  the  outcome  price,  that  is,  if  
“competitor  price”  is  a  factor  of  the  Airline’s  price  algorithm.  
For  each  of  the  three  destinations,  a  correlation  matrix  is  extracted  using  both  the  
outbound  and  inbound  NoCookie  (we  are  no  longer  interested  in  the  cookies)  prices.
     
The  matrices  contain  Pearson  Correlation  Coefficients  (“ϱ”  -­  value  between  -­1  and  
+1  inclusive,  where  0  means  “no  correlation).  
  
Table   11,   12   and   13   (next   page)   contain   the   output   of   the   correlation   analysis.  
When   ϱ   >0.6   the   value   has   been   highlighted   in   yellow.   In   addition   the   Ryanair-­
Easyjet  correlation  coefficient  has  been  highlighted  in  blue  because  it’s  the  only  one  
significantly  higher  than  0.6  in  all  three  matrices  (for  all  destination).  
  
Table  11  –  Milan/Barcelona  Correlations  
   BritishBAR   EasyBAR   LuftBAR   RyanBAR  
BritishBAR   Pearson  Correlation   1   .100   .528**
   .541**
  
Sig.  (2-­tailed)      .574   .002   .001  
N   34   34   32   34  
EasyBAR   Pearson  Correlation   .100   1   -­.022   .642**
  
Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .574     .905   .000  
N   34   34   32   34  
LuftBAR   Pearson  Correlation   .528**
   -­.022   1   .278  
Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .002   .905     .123  
N   32   32   32   32  
RyanBAR   Pearson  Correlation   .541**
   .642**
   .278   1  
Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .001   .000   .123    
N   34   34   32   34  
  
  
Table  12  –  Milan/Berlin  Correlations  
   BritishBER   EasyBER   LuftBER   RyanBER  
BritishBER   Pearson  Correlation   1   .456**
   .089   .323  
  33	
  
Sig.  (2-­tailed)      .007   .619   .000  
N   34   34   34   34  
EasyBER   Pearson  Correlation   .456**
   1   -­.182   .867**
  
Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .007     .304   .062  
N   34   34   34   34  
LuftBER   Pearson  Correlation   .089   -­.182   1   .082  
Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .619   .304     .646  
N   34   34   34   34  
RyanBER   Pearson  Correlation   .323   .867**
   .082   1  
Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .000   .062   .646    
N   34   34   34   34  
  
  
Table  13  –  Milan/London  Correlations  
   BritishLON   EasyLON   LuftLON   RyanLON  
BritishLON   Pearson  Correlation   1   .863**
   .611**
   .674**
  
Sig.  (2-­tailed)      .000   .000   .000  
N   31   31   31   31  
EasyLON   Pearson  Correlation   .863**
   1   .702**
   .803**
  
Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .000     .000   .000  
N   31   34   34   34  
LuftLON   Pearson  Correlation   .611**
   .702**
   1   .758**
  
Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .000   .000     .000  
N   31   34   34   34  
RyanLON   Pearson  Correlation   .674**
   .803**
   .758**
   1  
Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .000   .000   .000    
N   31   34   34   34  
  
**.  Correlation  is  significant  at  the  0.01  level  (2-­tailed).  
  
The   analysis   shows   that   the   No-­Frill   carriers   mutually   influence   their   prices   in   all  
three  destinations,  while  some  degree  of  correlation  across  ALL  carriers  is  detected  
only  in  the  Milan-­London  route,  probably  the  busiest  and  most  competitive  one.  
6.  Conclusions  and  Recommendations    
  
  34	
  
All   in   all,   the   SPSS   analyses   have   revealed   some   important   characteristic   of   the  
strategic  behavior  of  the  different  Carriers.    
The   scope   of   the   results   presented   in   this   paper   is   however   limited   due   to   the  
sample   size   used   in   the   SPSS   analysis   and   the   short   timeframe   of   collection.   A  
research   longer   than   34   days   could   probably   produce   a   wider   and   more   precise  
range  of  insights.  
  
Recalling  Wallenberg’s  airline  pricing  model,  the  three  factors  proposed  there  can  be  
integrated   with   at   least   two   new   ones:   Previous   Customer’s   Researches   and  
Competitors’  prices.  
  
Previous   Customer’s   research   varies   according   to   the   cookies   accrued   on   the  
customer’s  browser.    
Even   though   the   investigation   revealed   that   all   studied   Airlines   make   use   of   the  
cookies  in  some  way,  the  strategy  that  each  Carrier  implements  is  different  and  a  
pattern  of  similarity  can  be  detected  with  respect  to  the  type  of  Carrier:    
• No-­frills   (Ryanair   and   Easyjet)   seem   to   be   using   cookie   information   on   a  
regular  (daily30
)  basis,  with  the  same  magnitude  (1.96%  and  2%)  and  overall  
slight   positive   direction   (cookies   make   the   outcome   price   increase).   The  
rationale  behind  this  strategy  is  that  Carriers,  knowing  that  the  customer  is  
checking  a  given  route,  increases  the  fare  for  that  route  accordingly.  
• Scheduled  carriers  (British  Airways  and  Lufthansa)  use  the  cookie  information  
in  a  more  subtle  and  hidden  way.    
Even  though  the  rationale  is  probably  the  same  (making  the  price  higher  for  
the  customers  who  seem  to  be  more  interested  in  a  given  route),  the  strategy  
differs.  The  price  increase  is  way  sharper  (9.8%  and  13.1%,  respectively  for  
BA  and  L)  and  applied  only  one  time,  some  days  after  the  cookie  information  
is   detected   (after   2   and   5   days,   respectively   for   BA   and   L).   This   kind   of  
approach   is   possibly   implemented   to   make   customers   think   that   the   ticket  
price   is   rising   fast   encouraging   them   to   make   the   purchase   as   quickly   as  
possible.  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
30	
  Refer	
  to	
  Appendix	
  A	
  to	
  see	
  the	
  regularity	
  of	
  No-­‐‑frills	
  price	
  change.	
  
  35	
  
  
The   factor   Competitor’s   price   has   been   introduced   given   that   the   daily   “price  
catalog”  is  available  for  everyone  (including  competitors  and  the  researcher)  online.    
Airlines  can  therefore  adapt  their  pricing  model  considering  competitors’  behavior.  
  
Given  the  correlation  analysis  conducted  here,  two  remarks  have  to  be  made:  
• No-­frills   take   competitors’   fare   into   account   more   often   than   scheduled  
carriers.  For  all  of  the  destinations  studied,  the  Pearson  coefficient  between  
Easyjet  and  Ryanair’s  prices  is  above  0.6  and  significant.  Given  that  the  price  
No-­Frills   offer   is   way   lower   than   their   Scheduled   rivals,   the   competition  
between  firms  is  way  more  intense  (data  reported  in  tables  11-­13).  
• Some  routes  in  which  a  multitude  of  Carriers  happen  to  compete  (due  to  the  
higher   customers’   demand),   requires   all   Carriers   to   check   competitors’   fare  
and   modify   their   strategy   accordingly.   This   is   what   happens   in   the   route  
Milan-­London  (Table  13).  
  
In   conclusion,   the   high   variability   of   Ticket   fares   shows   how   Dynamic   Pricing  
strategies  evolved  and  improved  as  technologies  advances.  
Browser  Cookies  Strategies  consists  in  just  another  step  forward  with  respect  to  the  
way   price   discrimination   is   implemented   on   the   market.   Even   though   price  
discrimination  is  economically  feasible  and  efficient  from  a  theoretical  point  of  view,  
the  real  life  implementation  of  this  practices  poses  social,  ethical  and  legal  concerns  
(discussed  more  rigorously  in  Appendix  B).  
  36	
  
Appendix  A  –  Cookie-­NoCookie  price  distribution  in  No-­
Frills  Carriers.  
€ 40,00	
  
€ 50,00	
  
€ 60,00	
  
€ 70,00	
  
€ 80,00	
  
€ 90,00	
  
€ 100,00	
  
€ 110,00	
  
-­‐‑34 -­‐‑32 -­‐‑30 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑26 -­‐‑24 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑20 -­‐‑18 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑14 -­‐‑12 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑8 -­‐‑6 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑2
EasyJet,	
  Milan	
  -­‐‑ Barcelona
Cookie
NoCookie
€ 60,00	
  
€ 70,00	
  
€ 80,00	
  
€ 90,00	
  
€ 100,00	
  
€ 110,00	
  
€ 120,00	
  
€ 130,00	
  
€ 140,00	
  
€ 150,00	
  
€ 160,00	
  
-­‐‑34 -­‐‑32 -­‐‑30 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑26 -­‐‑24 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑20 -­‐‑18 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑14 -­‐‑12 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑8 -­‐‑6 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑2
EasyJet,	
  Milan	
  -­‐‑ Berlin
Cookie
NoCookie
€ 70,00	
  
€ 80,00	
  
€ 90,00	
  
€ 100,00	
  
€ 110,00	
  
€ 120,00	
  
€ 130,00	
  
€ 140,00	
  
-­‐‑34 -­‐‑32 -­‐‑30 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑26 -­‐‑24 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑20 -­‐‑18 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑14 -­‐‑12 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑8 -­‐‑6 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑2
EasyJet,	
  Milan	
  -­‐‑ London
Cookie
NoCookie
  37	
  
  
€ 20,00	
  
€ 30,00	
  
€ 40,00	
  
€ 50,00	
  
€ 60,00	
  
€ 70,00	
  
€ 80,00	
  
€ 90,00	
  
€ 100,00	
  
€ 110,00	
  
-­‐‑34 -­‐‑32 -­‐‑30 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑26 -­‐‑24 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑20 -­‐‑18 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑14 -­‐‑12 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑8 -­‐‑6 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑2
Ryanair,	
  Milan	
  -­‐‑ Berlin
Cookie
NoCookie
€ 20,00	
  
€ 40,00	
  
€ 60,00	
  
€ 80,00	
  
€ 100,00	
  
€ 120,00	
  
€ 140,00	
  
€ 160,00	
  
-­‐‑34 -­‐‑32 -­‐‑30 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑26 -­‐‑24 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑20 -­‐‑18 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑14 -­‐‑12 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑8 -­‐‑6 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑2
Ryanair,	
  Milan	
  -­‐‑ London
Cookie
NoCookie
€ 40,00	
  
€ 60,00	
  
€ 80,00	
  
€ 100,00	
  
€ 120,00	
  
€ 140,00	
  
€ 160,00	
  
-­‐‑34 -­‐‑32 -­‐‑30 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑26 -­‐‑24 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑20 -­‐‑18 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑14 -­‐‑12 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑8 -­‐‑6 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑2
Ryanair,	
  Milan	
  -­‐‑ Barcelona
Cookie
NoCookie
  38	
  
Appendix  B  –  Ethical,  Social  and  Legal  Consequences  of  
Dynamic  Pricing  with  Browser  Cookies  
  
  
Dynamic  Pricing  is  a  form  of  first  degree  price  discrimination,  a  practice  considered  
economically  efficient  due  to  the  reduction  of  the  overall  dead-­weight  loss.  
From  a  theoretical  point  of  view,  these  practices  allow  producers  to  capture  part  of  
the  consumer’s  surplus,  with  the  result  that  the  total  efficiency  is  increased,  but  a  
redistribution  of  resources  is  implemented     to  the  consumer’s  detriment.     
  
In  real  life,  the  application  of  dynamic  pricing  strategies  are  taking  off,  albeit  slowly  
due  to  producers’  fears  of  possible  consumer  negative  response  to  these  practices  
on  ground  of  unfairness.  
For  instance,  some  kind  of  dynamic  pricing  strategy  applied  by  Amazon  using  the  
purchasing  history  of  customers  was  discovered  by  a  customer  who  saw  the  price  of  
a  DVD  dropping  from  $26.24  to  $22.74  when  logging  into  Amazon  from  a  different  
account.  
The  adverse  customer  reaction  to  this  event  and  the  bad  publicity  connected  to  the  
episode,  forced  Amazon  to  publicly  apologize  and  refund  the  customers  who  had  to  
pay  higher  prices  (Ramasastry,  2005)  
This   shows   that   the   average   consumer   perceives   Dynamic   Pricing   as   a   TOTALLY  
UNFAIR  practice.  
  
With  respect  to  this  in  2009,  the  Directive  2009/136/Ce  has  entered  into  force.  This  
directive   aims   at   protecting   unaware   users   from   the   unrestricted   utilization   of  
Cookies  by  third  parties.  
With  respect  to  information  stored  by  websites  on  the  users  equipment  legitimately  
(Cookies)  “it  is  therefore  of  paramount  importance  that  users  be  provided  with  clear  
and  comprehensive  information  when  engaging  in  any  activity  which  could  result  in  
such   storage   or   gaining   of   access.   The   methods   of   providing   information   and  
offering   the   right   to   refuse   should   be   as   user-­friendly   as   possible”   (Directive  
2009/136/Ce).  
  39	
  
The   comprehensive   information   cited   above   is   practically   realized   by   disclaimers,  
which  inform  the  user  more  or  less  clearly,  that  their  data  is  being  utilized.  
Fig.  7  and  8  present  some  examples  taken  from  the  Airline  websites  used  during  the  
investigation  with  Ryanair  being  the  clearest  one  (pop-­up  available  on  every  page).  
Fig.  7  -­  Ryanair  
  
  
Fig.  8  –  British  Airways  
  
  40	
  
References  
  
Barry  C.  Smith,  Dirk  P.  Günther,  B.  Venkateshwara  Rao,  Richard  M.  Ratlife,  
(2001).  E-­Commerce  and  Operations  Research  in  Airline  Planning,  Marketing,  and  
Distribution.  Interfaces  31(2),  37-­55.  
Buhalis,   D.   (2004).   eAirlines:   strategic   and   tactical   use   of   ICTs   in   the   airline  
industry.  Information  &  Management.  41  (1),  805–825.  
  
Burger,   B.   &   Fuchs,   M..   (2004).   Dynamic   pricing   —   A   future   airline   business  
model.  Journal  of  Revenue  and  Pricing  Management.  4  (2),  39-­53.  
  
BusinessDictionary.com   -­   Online   Business   Dictionary.   (2014).   [ONLINE]  
Available  at:  http://www.businessdictionary.com.  [Last  accessed  23  May  2014].  
  
Chin,  C.  L.  (2004).  Airline  Pricing  Model.  Available:  
http://cs.brown.edu/people/clc/airfaresim/model.pdf   .   [Last   accessed   15th   May  
2014].  
  
Elmaghraby,   W.   and   Keskinocak,   P.   (2002).   ‘Dynamic   pricing:   Research  
overview,   current   practices   and   future   Directions’,   Technical   Report,   Logistics  
Institute,  Georgia  Tech  and  The  Logistic  Institute  –  Asia  Pacific,  National  University  
of  Singapore.  
European   parliament   and   of   the   council.   (2009).   Directive   2009/136/EC.  
Available:   http://eur-­
lex.europa.eu/legalcontent/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32009L0136&from=EN.   Last  
accessed  20th  May  2014.    
  
Fredrik   Wallenberg.   (2000).   A   Study   of   Airline   Pricing.   School   of   Information  
Management  &  Systems,  University  of  California  at  Berkeley.  1  (1),  1-­33.  
  
  41	
  
Massimo   Fubini.   (2014).   Cookie:   avviso   ai   naviganti.   Available:  
http://www.lavoce.info/cookies-­avviso-­ai-­naviganti/.  Last  accessed  6th  May  2014.  
  
Hinz,  O.,  Hann,  I.H,  Spann,  M.  (2011).  Price  Discrimination  in  E-­Commerce?  An  
Examination   of   Dynamic   Pricing   in   Name-­Your-­Own-­Price   Markets".   MIS  Quarterly,  
Vol.  35(1),  81-­96.  
  
Investopedia   -­   Educating   the   world   about   finance      (2014).   Available   at:  
http://www.investopedia.com  [Accessed  20  May  2014].  
  
Matodzi,  A.  &  Warden  S.C.  (2005).  The  effect  of  e-­commerce  technology  on  the  
airline  industry.  ICT  Research  Forum.  2  (1),  1-­17.  
  
Porter,  M.  (2001).  Strategy  and  the  Internet.  Harvard  Business  Review.  103D,  pp.  
63–78.  
  
Preston  McAfee  R.;;  Te  Velde  V..  (2007).  Dynamic  pricing  in  the  airline  industry.  
Economics  and  Information  systems.  1  (3),  527-­569.  
Sviokla,  John  (2003).  “Value  Poaching,”  Across  the  Board,  40  (2)  11–12.  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

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LF1566306

  • 1.   1       E-­commerce  Strategy:  An  empirical   investigation  of  Dynamic  Pricing  in  the  Airline   Industry           Roberto  Leumann   BIEMF   2014   1566306         Empirical  Thesis   Tutor:  Ferdinando  Pennarola  
  • 3.   3   Acknowledgements       I   take   this   opportunity   to   thank   my   parents   for   the   moral   support   they   provided   during  my  college  years.   I  am  also  grateful  to  Prof.  Ferdinando  Pennarola  for  the  assistance  offered  during   the  drafting  of  the  thesis  and  Prof.  Barbara  Chizzolini  for  the  precious  help  she  gave   me  in  the  Statistical  Analysis  of  the  paper.   In  addition,  I  want  to  express  my  sincere  gratitude  to  all  my  family  and  friends,  and   in   particular   to   my   friend   Nico   Klaas   for   having   helped   me   developing   the   idea   behind  this  paper.      
  • 4.   4      
  • 5.   5   Table  of  Contents       Abstract  ........................................................................................................  6   1.  Introduction  and  Research  objectives  .....................................................  7   2.  Related  Literature  ....................................................................................  8   3.  The  Airline  Industry:  E-­commerce  and  Dynamic  Pricing  .......................  10   3.1  E-­commerce  and  the  Airline  Industry  .......................................................................  10   3.2  Dynamic  Pricing  and  the  Airline  Industry  ..................................................................  12   3.3  Evolving  E-­commerce  and  Dynamic  Airline  Pricing:  A  Brief  Background  of  Browser   Cookies  .......................................................................................................................  15   4.  Methodology  ...........................................................................................  17   4.1  Collection  Specifics  .................................................................................................  18   4.2  SPSS  Analysis  .........................................................................................................  22   5.  Results  ....................................................................................................  24   5.1  Preliminary  Examination  ..........................................................................................  24   5.2  Cookie  Analysis  ......................................................................................................  26   5.3  Correlation  Analysis  ................................................................................................  32   6.  Conclusions  and  Recommendations  .......................................................  33   Appendix  A  –  Cookie-­NoCookie  price  distribution  in  No-­Frills  Carriers.  ....  36   Appendix  B  –  Ethical,  Social  and  Legal  Consequences  of  Dynamic  Pricing   with  Browser  Cookies  .................................................................................  38   References  ..................................................................................................  40          
  • 6.   6   Abstract     Technological  breakthroughs  are  strengthening  the  entanglement  between  retailers   and  customers  online.     As   digital   instruments   evolve,   firms   that   operate   online   are   modifying   their   E-­ commerce  strategies  in  order  to  adapt  themselves  to  a  market  that  changes  on  a   continuous  base.   Whenever   users   access   the   web   or   perform   a   research   online,   they   leave   some   traces,   which   can   be   used   by   firms   to   enrich   the   profile   of   their   customers.   The   ability   of   firms   is   to   make   full   use   of   these   tools   and   use   them   to   create   an   advantage,  especially  if  these  firms  are  able  to  price  the  goods  they  sell  dynamically.   In  this  paper  we  analyze  how  Airlines,  a  perfect  example  of  sector  in  which  dynamic   pricing  practices  are  performed,  are  introducing  the  data  gathered  through  the  latest   virtual  platforms  in  their  online  pricing  model.   In   particular   we   study   the   impact   of   browser   cookies   on   the   degree   of   price   discrimination  implemented  by  various  carriers.  
  • 7.   7   1.  Introduction  and  Research  objectives     Information  Communication  Technology  (ICTs)  has  generated  major  changes  in  the   way  competitive  schemes  are  organized  in  the  market  providing  firms  with  powerful   strategic  and  tactical  tools.     The   implementation   of   ITCs   has   evolved   along   three   main   dimensions.   Intranets   ensured  speedy  flow  of  information  within  the  company,  Extranets  guaranteed  real-­ time   communication   with   associates   and   supported   B2B   relationships   and   the   Internet,  most  importantly,  allowed  companies  to  interact  and  communicate  with  the   customers.   More   specifically,   within   the   framework   of   internet-­based   interfaces,   E-­commerce   platforms  reshaped  the  way  many  businesses  not  only  related  with  their  customers,   but  also  gained  precious  data  about  them.   In  the  airline  industry,  one  of  the  most  competitive  markets  since  the  deregulation   wave  of  the  late  70s,  E-­commerce  advancements  have  had  a  particularly  wide  range   of  strategic  implications.     Given   the   nature   of   the   service   provided,   Airlines   apply   a   specific   type   of   pricing   model  called  Dynamic.     Some  features  of  Dynamic  pricing  models,  only  conceivable  in  theory,  have  become   commercially   feasible   only   with   the   employment   of   state-­of-­the-­Art   E-­commerce   technologies.       The  relationship  between  E-­commerce  tool  and  Dynamic  Pricing  is  the  core  interest   of  this  paper,  whose  aim  is  to  study  the  outcome  price  offered  by  Carriers  on  their   Airline  e-­commerce  platforms  over  time.     The   analysis   of   these   prices   will   shed   a   light   on   the   way   new   online   tools,   more   specifically  the  use  of  Browser  Cookies,  allowed  Airlines  to  enhance  the  degree  of   discrimination  applied  in  their  pricing  model.  
  • 8.   8   Focus  is  set  primarily  on  the  current1  online  approach  of  Scheduled  and  no-­frills  (also   known  as  “Low  cost”)  carriers  in  the  European  Market.     Although  the  empirical  investigation  mainly  concentrates  on  the  impact  of  cookies  on   the   dynamic   pricing   strategy,   the   data   gathered   will   be   used   to   compare   the   outcome  price  distribution  of  the  selected  Airlines2 .     2.  Related  Literature     Most  of  the  existing  literature  either  concentrates  on  Dynamic  Pricing  (mainly  with  a   semi-­pure  quantitative  approach)  or  on  E-­commerce  strategies.     Fredrik   Wallenberg,   in   his   paper   “A   Study   of   Airline   Pricing”   proposed   a   general   airline  pricing  model  based  on  three  factors:   •  The  origin/destination  pair.     •  Three   advanced   purchase   periods,   depending   on   the   number   of   days   preceding  the  departure  date.   •  Whether  or  not  there  is  a  Saturday  stayover.     Wallenberg   tested   the   model   against   49,000   airfare   transactions,   creating   a   theoretical  model  with  sound  results.   Integrating   Wallenberger’s   factors   with   those   made   possible   today   by   the   use   of   cutting-­edge  E-­commerce  technologies  is  another  objective  of  this  paper.                                                                                                                           1  Research  conducted  in  the  period  April-­‐‑May  2014.   2  Schedule  Airlines:  British  Airways  and  Lufthansa;  No-­‐‑frill  airlines:  Easyjet  and  Ryanair.  
  • 9.   9    “Dynamic  pricing  —  A  future  airline  business  model”  by    Burger  B.  and  Matthias  F.,   describes  the  feasibility  of  a  Dynamic  approach  in  the  airline  pricing  model  using  a   “basic  dynamic  pricing  prototype  model”.  Even  though  the  paper,  written  in  2004,   could  only  in  part  prove  the  validity  of  the  hypotheses  stated,  the  results  appear  to   be   quite   realistic   when   compared   with   the   practices   implemented   nowadays   by   Airline  Carriers.     The   journal   article   “eAirlines:   strategic   and   tactical   use   of   ICTs   in   the   airline   industry”   by   Dimitrios   Buhalis   provides   a   detailed   history   of   e-­Commerce   in   the   Airline  Industry  highlighting  the  importance  of  virtual  channels  for  both  B2B  and  B2C   relationships.  However,  having  been  written  in  2003,  the  research  does  not  include   the  use  of  online  cookies  as  a  mean  of  market  segmentation  enhancement.     Ultimately,   the   Article   “Price   Discrimination   in   E-­Commerce?   An   Examination   of   Dynamic  Pricing  in  Name-­Your-­Own-­Price  Markets  “  published  on  MIS  Quartely  by   Hinz,   O.,   Hann,   I.H   and   Spann,   M.,   even   though   targeted   at   a   different   market3   contains   interesting   facts   about   the   way   Dynamic   Pricing   is   implemented   and   the   shortcomings  of  price  discrimination  with  respect  to  firm  image.   Additionally,  Hinz,  O.,  Hann,  I.H  and  Spann,  M.’s  work  briefly  deals  with  the  matter   of   browser   cookies,   which   makes   it   ideal   for   the   empirical   investigation   presented   here.                                                                                                                   3  In  their  paper,  Hinz,  O.,  Hann,  I.H  and  Spann,  M.  study  the  NYOB  markets.  
  • 10.   10   3.  The  Airline  Industry:  E-­commerce  and  Dynamic   Pricing     3.1  E-­commerce  and  the  Airline  Industry     E-­commerce   –   short   for   Electronic   Commerce,   is   broadly   defined   as   “conducting   business  online”4 .   In   common   sense,   e-­commerce   deals   with   the   sales   aspects   of   the   more   general   context  of  e-­business.   However,   E-­commerce   provides   the   capability   of   performing   several   operations   within  a  single  online  interface,  introducing  an  electronic  marketplace  where  buyers   and  sellers  meet,  submit  bids,  keep  track  of  the  orders  and  get  to  the  end  of  the   transaction  electronically.     The  possibility  to  increase  competitive  advantage  through  ICTs  and  E-­commerce  has   been  grasped  quite  early  by  Airline  Carriers,  whose  investments  in  this  field  started   in  the  mid-­50s.   The   cornerstone   of   ICT   strategy   in   the   Airline   Industry   is   the   SABRE   Computer   Reservation   System,   used   as   a   control   system   to   generate   flight   plans,   schedule   crews   and   track   spare   parts.   At   this   point   the   technologic   advancement   only   had   internal  managerial  implications  allowing  companies  to  cut  organization  costs.   After  years  of  technological  breakthroughs,  the  deregulation  wave  started  in  1979   and  the  advent  of  the  Internet,  the  SABRE  system  gave  way  to  online  interfaces,   initially  used  by  online  travel  agencies  and  ticket  outlets5  and  eventually  by  Carriers   themselves,  who  started  to  sell  tickets  directly  from  their  websites.                                                                                                                       4  Definition  from  Investopedia.   5  Such  as  LastMinuteTravel.com,  Priceline.com  and  Flightserv.com.  
  • 11.   11   These  online  interfaces  incorporated  a  number  of  innovations  useful  not  only  for  the   Carrier  but  also  for  the  clients,  such  as6 :   § Paperless  tickets,     § Proactive  and  
reactive  approach  to  pricing  strategy,     § Commission  capping  and  publication  of  net  fares,     § Financial  incentives  for  self-­booking  online,     § Auctions  and  online  promotions,     § Enhanced  customer  relationship,   § Context-­relevant  advertising.     The   online   experience   of   e-­Ticketing 7  is   thus   characterized   by   a   2-­way   B2C   experience   where   the   Carriers   have   the   chance   to   gather   information   about   the   customers’  preferences  with  regards  to  ticket  purchases.     This   process   of   information   gathering   matched   the   main   objectives   of   Carriers,   namely  getting  closer  to  customer  and  cutting  costs.   Data  collection  from  customers  evolved  together  with  the  new  virtual  techniques.     While  in  the  late  90s,  Carriers  were  able  to  simply  know  and  store  data  about  price   and   types   of   tickets   purchased   by   clients   (historical   approach),   the   current   implementation   of   the   latest   tools   allows   a   deeper   knowledge   of   the   customer’s   profile.   Two   examples   of   these   tools   are   the   Internet   Protocol   (IP)   based   systems   and   application  of  browser  Cookies.   The  former  encapsulates  data  mainly  about  the  geographic  position  of  the  user,  the   latter,   started   to   be   used   in   very   recent   times,   informs   Carriers   about   previous   searches  made  by  the  user  on  the  website.                                                                                                                         6  Innovation  listed  by  Buhalis,  D.   7  Airline  tickets  bought/sold  online.  
  • 12.   12   Aggregating  the  bulk  of  information  available  is  a  way  to  make  the  market  price  paid   by  the  single  client  closer  to  her  Willingness-­to-­pay  (WTP),  which  means  engaging  to   some  degree  in  Dynamic  pricing  and  Price  Discrimination.     3.2  Dynamic  Pricing  and  the  Airline  Industry     Dynamic   pricing,   also   known   as   real-­time   pricing,   is   the   practice   of   setting   and   resetting  the  price  of  a  product  almost  continuously  according  to  some  pre-­defined   factors.   This   approach   makes   price   flexible   and   volatile   and   allows   firms   to   make   quick  adjustments  in  response  to  market  demand  and  customers’  preferences.     Dynamic   pricing   strategies   are   normally   coupled   with   the   sale   of   goods   that   are   subjects  to  some  degree  of  decay  or  spoilage,  namely  perishable  goods.   Among  others,  the  main  features  shared  by  perishable  products  are:   • The  quantity  is  fixed  and  reordering  is  not  possible.     • There  is  a  deadline  for  sales.     • The  marginal  cost  of  selling  one  or  
more  items  is  low.     Examples  of  perishable  goods  are  food,  electricity  and,  most  importantly  the  seats   on  a  flight.     Given   the   capacity   of   the   aircraft,   Airline   Carriers   have   a   fixed   and   pre-­specified   number  of  seats;;  once  the  airplane  takes  off,  any  unsold  seat  becomes  valueless;;   moreover,  the  marginal  cost  in  the  industry  is  known  to  be  very  low,  “merely  the   cost  of  a  bag  of  peanuts  and  a  can  of  soda”8 .   These   characteristics   make   the   Airline   Industry   particularly   suitable   for   the   application  of  Dynamic  Pricing  strategies.     Before   the   advent   of   e-­Commerce   and   the   era   of   Internet   consumption   however,   revenue  management  could  only  proceed  through  static  pricing,  which  resulted  in  a   less  efficient  strategy.                                                                                                                     8  From  “Principle  of  Economics”  (2011)  by  Mankiw,  N.  G.  
  • 13.   13   The  existing  literature9  has  studied  static  pricing  models  assuming  that,  due  to  the   multiple-­fare  classes  which  used  to10  characterize  the  composition  of  the  seats  on  a   plane,   demand   for   different   classes   appeared   to   have   a   sequential   time   of   appearance,   with   requests   for   the   lowest   classes   coming   first,   followed   by   next   lowest,  etc.     This  assumption,  partly  verified  by  empirics,  was  (and  actually  still  is)  the  cause  of   several  issues  such  as  over-­booking,  cancellations  and  no-­show.  A  Dynamic  pricing   approach,  apart  from  increasing  marginal  revenues,  would  also  limit  the  impact  of   these  problems.     From   an   economic   point   of   view,   the   practice   of   dividing   customers   in   subsets   according   to   their   common   needs   and   priorities   is   referred   to   as   Market   Segmentation.   In  order  to  get  involved  with  Dynamic  pricing,  the  firm  must  primarily  segment  the   market   in   clusters   with   common   preferences.   Eventually,   the   same   good   is   priced   differently  among  clusters  according  to  their  intrinsic  characteristics.   In  the  case  of  Airlines,  different  passengers  have  different  reasons  to  fly  according   to  their  needs.  In  turn,  needs  of  different  individuals  are  associated  with  different   elasticity  of  demand.   The   goal   of   Airlines   is   to   SEGMENT   potential   passengers   with   respect   to   their   reasons/needs  and  only  later  CHARGE  higher  rates  to  those  with  lower  elasticity.         A   very   basic   form   of   segmentation   consists   in   dividing   clients   between   business   travellers  and  vacationers.  While  the  formers  have  very  little  advance  warning  and   need  to  fly  quickly  to  a  specific  location,  vacationers  usually  take  some  time  to  plan   their   vacations   and   are   more   flexible   with   regards   to   location.   A   better   price   is   applied  to  the  second  group,  which  shows  higher  elasticity.                                                                                                                     9  Belobaba  (31987,  31989),  Brumelle  and  McGill  (31993),  Curry  (31990),  among  others,   have  tried  to  disentangle  the  static  pricing  inefficiency  problem.   10  Nowadays,  especially  in  the  case  of  Low-­‐‑cost  carriers,  the  seats  are  organized  on  a   double-­‐‑fare  structure  (mainly  Economy  and  Business).    
  • 14.   14   Nevertheless,  this  way  of  grouping  customers  is  quite  basic  since  a  larger  variety  of   customer  profiles  actually  exist.       This  is  where  E-­commerce  technologies  come  into  play.  Indeed  as  customers  search   the  web,  they  leave  some  “footprints”  that  can  be  used  by  Airlines  to  refine  the  way   they  form  clusters,  thus  making  the  discrimination  more  accurate.  
  • 15.   15   3.3  Evolving  E-­commerce  and  Dynamic  Airline  Pricing:  A  Brief  Background   of  Browser  Cookies       In   the   words   of   the   Economist   Paul   Krugmann,   Dynamic   Pricing   is   merely   a   new   version   of   price   discrimination,   made   commercially   feasible   by   the   current   technologies.   E-­commerce  platforms  have  become  the  bridge  between  the  pure  theory  of  Dynamic   Pricing  and  its  real-­world  application.     The   mechanism   through   which   a   dynamic   model   is   applied   starts   by   defining   an   algorithm   used   to   control   the   behavior   of   online   pricing   bots.   These   “software   agents”  aggregate  certain  amounts  of  data  provided,  voluntarily  and  involuntarily,  by   customers  and  produce  a  “customized”  outcome  price.     Among  the  types  of  information  that  the  bots  use  to  produce  the  outcome  price,  two   are   particularly   interesting   because   they   can   extract   information   about   the   customers  collecting  their  “virtual  footprints”.     IP  (Internet  Protocol)  number,  as  previously  stated,  contains  information  about  the   users’  geographical  location.     This   type   of   information   can   be   used   to   discriminate   with   respect   to   currency,   country’s  purchasing  power  etc.   Since  200111 ,  Airlines  IT  Investments  were  channeled  in  the  direction  of  IP  based   systems   with   the   consequence   that   this   technique   was   already   employed   on   E-­ commerce  platforms  since  2006.     More  recently,  Airlines  are  updating  their  pricing  algorithm  process  making  it  process   Browser  Cookies  as  well.   A  Browser  Cookie  is  a  small  piece  of  data  sent  by  a  website’s  server  and  deposited  in   the  user’s  hard  disk  via  the  browser.     Every  time  the  user  accesses  the  website  again,  the  cookies  are  sent  by  the  browser   back  to  the  website  in  order  to  retrieve  some  useful  data  about  previous  research.                                                                                                                   11  As  reported  by  Buhalis.  
  • 16.   16   Even   though   they   were   introduced   in   order   to   ensure   a   smooth   and   user-­friendly   surfing   experience   (cookies   save,   for   instance,   the   items   in   a   shopping   cart   or   Facebook’s  ID  and  password),  they  also  store  several  kinds  of  procedures  done  by   the   user,   thus   permitting   to   read   them   and   process   them   by   any   given   server   (including   Airlines   platforms).   As   a   wise   man   once   said   “Your   past   defines   your   future”.     Discovering  whether  Pricing  bots  use  these  tools  to  update  ticket  prices  according  to   previous  researches  made  by  the  users  is  thus  one  of  the  main  objectives  of  this   paper.  
  • 17.   17   4.  Methodology     The   empirical   investigation   presented   here   has   been   structured   in   order   to   understand  the  way  Airline  carriers  choose  the  prices  to  offer  to  their  online  clients.     The   source   of   data   is   primary,   because   the   prices   have   been   collected   by   the   researcher   directly   from   the   Carriers’   online   agency,   namely   the   websites12  where   Airlines  show  their  fares  and  conclude  transactions.     First  of  all,  as  previously  mentioned,  the  subject  matter  of  the  study  is  the  European   market.     In  order  to  make  a  more  general  evaluation,  two  Carriers  for  each  type  (Scheduled   and  no-­frills)  have  been  selected.     Ryanair   and   Easyjet   will   represent   No-­Frills   Carriers,   while   Lufthansa   and   British   Airways  will  proxy  of  the  behavior  of  Scheduled  Carriers.     After  having  selected  two  dates  (outbound  and  inbound  –  16th  and  18th  of  May  2014)   and  3  routes,  Milan-­Barcelona,  Milan-­Berlin,  Milan-­London,  the  prices  of  these  routes   have  been  collected  for  each  of  the  four  Airline  Carriers  over  a  period  of  34  days   (from  April  12th  to  May  the  15th ).     In   order   to   check   for   the   use   of   Cookies   the   prices   are   collected   twice   on   two   different   computer   systems.   In   one,   the   browser   cookies   are   daily   deleted   before   and  after  the  price  check,  in  the  other  the  cookies  are  kept  so  to  highlight  if  the   algorithm   enshrined   in   the   pricing   bot   of   each   company   takes   the   cookies’   information  into  account.   A  total  of  1604  prices  have  been  collected.                                                                                                                   12  The  sources  are:   • http://www.ryanair.com   • http://www.easyjet.com   • http://www.britishairways.com/travel       • http://www.lufthansa.com  
  • 18.   18   In  order  to  reduce  the  “noise”  of  other  variables  that  may  interfere  with  the  cookies   in  the  price  determination  process,  some  precautionary  measures  are  taken:   • In  order  to  exclude  the  impact  of  the  IP  (Internet  Protocol)  on  the  outcome   price,  the  researcher  used  the  TOR  (TheOnionRouter)  Browser.  This  particular   browser,   created   to   enable   online   anonymity   and   censorship   resistance,   conceals   the   IP   number   of   the   terminal,   making   impossible   for   the   pricing   bots  to  locate  or  trace  Internet  activity  of  the  user.   Obviously,  TOR  would  delete  Browser  Cookies  by  default,  so  the  settings  of   the   browser   have   been   changed   on   one   of   the   two   computers   in   order   to   keep  track  of  the  Cookies.   • The  prices  have  been  checked  everyday  between  11am  and  1pm.  Moreover,   in   order   to   exclude  daily  price  fluctuations   the   Cookie/Non-­cookie   collection   has  always  been  performed  within  a  20-­25-­minute  timeframe.       4.1  Collection  Specifics       The  airline  website  is  accessed  everyday  in  the  aforementioned  timeframe  (11am-­ 1pm).   Every   website   normally   has   a   research   string   requesting   basic   information   required   to   retrieve   the   flight   (Outbound   date   and   location,   Inbound   date   and   location  and  number  of  people  flying).     The  following  tables  sum  up  the  initial  data  given  by  the  researcher  to  the  pricing   bot.  All  Prices  for  each  carrier  are  Economy  Class  1-­passenger  prices13 .                                                                                                                   13  Since  Lufthansa  further  distinguishes  Economy  Class  in  3  subgroups(Economy  Saver,   Economy  Basic  and  Economy  Flex),  the  researcher  has  chosen  the  “Economy  Basic”   ticket.  
  • 19.   19   Table  1  -­  Milan-­London   Carrier   Departure  Airport   Arrival  Airport   Time  departure   May  16th   Time  departure   May  18th   Ryanair   Malpensa     Stanstead     17.15   13.50     Easyjet   Malpensa   Gatwick   16:30     13:05     British   Linate   Heathrow   19:10     12:05     Luft14   Linate   Heathrow   12:55       13:30       Table  2  -­  Milan-­Berlin   Carrier   Departure  Airport   Arrival  Airport   Time  departure   May  16th   Time  departure   May  18th   Ryanair   Malpensa     Schönefeld   06.30     08.55     Easyjet   Malpensa   Schönefeld   10:40     13:50     British   Linate   Tegel   07:45     06:55     Luft15   Linate   Tegel   06:40     07:10     Table  3  -­  Milan-­Barcelona   Carrier   Departure   Airport   Airport   Time  departure   May  16th   Time  departure   May  18th   Ryanair   Malpensa     El  Prat     08.35     17.35     Easyjet   Malpensa   El  Prat   06:35       08:45       British   Linate   El  Prat   13:2016     11:1017     Luft18   Linate   El  Prat   07:15     12:45                                                                                                                     14  Flight  characteristics:  Milan-­‐‑Frankfurt  (FF),  FF-­‐‑London.   15  Flight  characteristics:  Milan-­‐‑FF,  FF-­‐‑Berlin.   16  Flight  characteristics:  Milan-­‐‑London  Heathrow  (LH),  LH-­‐‑Barcelona   17  Flight  characteristics:  Milan-­‐‑Madrid,  Madrid-­‐‑Barcelona;  the  second  flight  is  on-­‐‑board   an   Iberia  (British  Airways’  Partner  Carrier)  aircraft.     18  Flight  characteristics:  Milan-­‐‑FF,  FF-­‐‑Barcelona.  
  • 20.   20   Once  collected  from  the  website  the  data  were  organized  in  a  Excel  sheet.   The  following  table  provides  an  example  of  spreadsheet  organization.  It  refers  to  the  first   day  of  data  collection  (find  column  description  in  footnote).   Boldfaced  prices  indicate  the  ones  in  which  Cookies  are  kept.     Table  4   Price   May   16th19   Price     May   18th20   Destination 21   Carrier 22   Days  to   Departure 23   Cookie   Dummy 24   Cookie-­ NC   OUT25   Cookie-­ NC  IN26   %chang e  OUT27   %chang e  IN28    €  124.00      €  137.00     London   B   -­34   0            €  215.00      €  269.00     Berlin   B   -­34   0            €  449.00      €  153.00     Barcelona   B   -­34   0            €  89.20      €  101.64     London   E   -­34   0            €  98.42      €  83.12     Berlin   E   -­34   0            €  80.06      €  70.37     Barcelona   E   -­34   0            €  140.88      €  166.78     London   L   -­34   0            €  217.67      €  149.60     Berlin   L   -­34   0            €  191.88      €  187.49     Barcelona   L   -­34   0            €  40.79      €  98.93     London   R   -­34   0            €  27.53      €  33.65     Berlin   R   -­34   0            €  82.61      €  82.61     Barcelona   R   -­34   0            €  124.00      €  137.00     London   B   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%    €  215.00      €  269.00     Berlin   B   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%    €  449.00      €  153.00     Barcelona   B   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%    €  89.20      €  101.64     London   E   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%    €  98.42      €  83.12     Berlin   E   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%    €  80.06      €  70.37     Barcelona   E   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%    €  140.88      €  166.78     London   L   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%    €  217.67      €  149.60     Berlin   L   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%    €  191.88      €  187.49     Barcelona   L   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%    €  40.79      €  98.93     London   R   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%    €  27.53      €  33.65     Berlin   R   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%                                                                                                                   19  (1)Price  May  16th:  Price  of  the  Outbound  Route.     20  (2)Price  May  18th:  Price  of  the  Inbound  Route.   21  (3)Destination:  check  the  tables  in  the  previous  page  for  further  info.   22  (4)Airline  Carrier:  where  “B”  (=British  Airways),  “E”  (=Easyjet),  “L”  (=Lufthansa),  “R”(=Ryanair).   23  (5)Days  to  Departure:  indicate  the  number  of  days  before  the  16th  of  May  (day  of  the  outbound  flight   departure).   24  (6)Cookie  dummy:  when  the  value  of  this  column  is  “0”  (“zero”),  the  price  has  been  collected  from  the   browser  where  the  cookies  are  deleted;  the  cookies  have  been  kept  untouched,  when  the  value  is  “1”.   25  (7)Cookie-­‐‑NC  OUT:  is  the  result  of  the  subtraction  of  the  price  WITH    cookie  and  the  price  WITHOUT   cookies  in  column  (1).   26  (8)Cookie-­‐‑NC  IN:  is  the  result  of  the  subtraction  of  the  price  WITH    cookie  and  the  price  WITHOUT   cookies  in  column  (2).   27  (9)%change  IN:  Is  the  percentage  change  between  WITH  and  WITHOUT  cookie  prices  in  column  (1).   28  (10)%change  OUT:  Is  the  percentage  change  between  WITH  and  WITHOUT  cookie  prices  in  column   (2).  Column  9  and  10  are  obviously  0  since  data  refers  to  the  first  day  of  investigation.    
  • 21.   21    €  82.61      €  82.61     Barcelona   R   -­34   1   €  0.00   €  0.00   0.0000%   0.0000%  
  • 22.   22   4.2  SPSS  Analysis     Two  types  of  analysis  have  been  conducted  through  SPSS.     In   the   first   analysis,   which   aims   at   controlling   if   there   is   a   significant   variation   between   Cookie-­NoCookie   fares,   all   prices   gathered   for   each   carrier   (Outbound,   Inbound  for  all  3  destinations)  have  been  aggregated  along  6  variables:   • BritishNOCOOKIE:   All   the   prices   gathered   from   britishairways.com   on   the   terminal  where  cookies  were  deleted.   • BritishCOOKIE:   All   the   prices   gathered   from   britishairways.com   on   the   terminal  where  cookies  were  NOT  deleted.   • LuftNOCOOKIE:  All  the  prices  gathered  from  Lufthansa.com  on  the  terminal   where  cookies  were  deleted.   • LuftCOOKIE:   All   the   prices   gathered   from   Lufthansa.com   on   the   terminal   where  cookies  were  NOT  deleted.   • EasyNOCOOKIE:   All   the   prices   gathered   from   easyjet.com   on   the   terminal   where  cookies  were  deleted.   • EasyCOOKIE:  All  the  prices  gathered  from  easyjet.com  on  the  terminal  where   cookies  were  NOT  deleted.   • RyanNOCOOKIE:   All   the   prices   gathered   from   ryanair.com   on   the   terminal   where  cookies  were  deleted.   • RyanCOOKIE:  All  the  prices  gathered  from  ryanair.com  on  the  terminal  where   cookies  were  NOT  deleted.     A  paired-­sample  T-­test  procedure  is  run  where  the  means  of  groups  are  compared   2-­by-­2  (Cookie  vs.  NoCookie  for  each  Carrier).   Substantially   the   sample   mean   of   each   “NOCOOKIE”   group   is   compared   with   the   mean  of  the  “COOKIE”  group.       In  the  second  analysis,  which  wants  to  compare  the  price  pattern  ACROSS  Carriers   in  order  to  detect  if  carriers  take  competitors’  behavior  into  account  when  computing  
  • 23.   23   the  outcome  price,  for  each  of  the  3  destinations  (Barcelona,  Berlin,  London)  a  4x4   correlation  matrix  is  created  using  the  variables  containing  the  fares  of  the  carriers.   The  12  variables,  created  using  only  the  NoCookie  prices  (in  this  analysis  the  impact   of  cookies  is  no  longer  of  interest),  for  each  carrier,  are:   • BritishBAR   • BritishBER   • BritishLON   • EasyBAR   • EasyBER   • EasyLON   • LuftBAR   • LuftBER   • LuftLON   • RyanBAR   • RyanBER   • RyanLON   Where  “BAR”  stands  for  Barcelona,  “BER”  for  Berlin  and  “LON”  for  London.    
  • 24.   24   5.  Results     5.1  Preliminary  Examination       An  initial  examination  of  the  price  trends  reveals  that  the  Scheduled  carriers  have  a   price  unquestionably  higher  than  their  No-­frills  opponents,  with  British  Airways  being   the  most  expensive  one.   Even  though  substantially  less  expensive,  No-­frills  prices  are  way  more  volatile  than   Scheduled  ones.     As  we  can  see  in  Figure  1-­3  (next  page),  while  Lufthansa  and  British  Airways  often   experience   periods   of   long   plateaus   where   the   price   remains   stable   for   4-­7   days,   Ryanair  and  Easyjet  exhibit  small  fluctuations  on  a  daily  basis.     Overall,  all  four  carriers  charge  higher  fares  as  the  departure  day  approach,  which  is   no  surprise  in  2014.     However,  this  phenomenon  represents  a  shift  from  the  “Last  minute  Practice”  which   has   been   very   common   among   airline   revenue   managers   until   2004-­2006.   This   practice   has   been   discredited   by   several   scholars   who   pointed   out   that,   in   the   presence  of  rational  customers,  last  minute  practices  are  dangerous  because  they   might  lead  to  an  inevitable  postponement  of  the  purchase  and  a  “a  cycle  of  price   degradation  that  will  eventually  lead  to  [...]  destroying  the  airlines"  (Sviokla  2004).     In  order  to  visualize  the  price  distribution  of  the  carriers,  six  graphs  organized  by   Destination   (for   instance,   “Barcelona”   indicates   the   Milan-­Barcelona   flight)   are   presented  in  the  next  page.   The   horizontal   axis   represents   the   variable   “Days   to   departure”   while   the   vertical   axis  corresponds  to  the  price  in  euro  of  the  ticket.   Ryanair  and  Easyjet  are  also  presented  separately  due  to  the  fact  that  their  fares  are   way  below  those  of  the  Scheduled  carriers.  
  • 25.   25     € -­‐‑ € 200,00   € 400,00   € 600,00   € 800,00   € 1.000,00   € 1.200,00   -­‐‑34-­‐‑31-­‐‑28-­‐‑25-­‐‑22-­‐‑19-­‐‑16-­‐‑13-­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1 Fig.  1A  -­‐‑ Barcelona British Easyjet Lufthansa Ryanair € -­‐‑ € 200,00   € 400,00   € 600,00   € 800,00   € 1.000,00   € 1.200,00   € 1.400,00   -­‐‑34-­‐‑31-­‐‑28-­‐‑25-­‐‑22-­‐‑19-­‐‑16-­‐‑13-­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1 Fig.  2A  -­‐‑ Berlin British Easyjet Lufthansa Ryanair € -­‐‑ € 100,00   € 200,00   € 300,00   € 400,00   € 500,00   € 600,00   € 700,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑31 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑25 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑19 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑13 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1 Fig.  3A  -­‐‑ London British Easyjet Lufthansa Ryanair € -­‐‑ € 20,00   € 40,00   € 60,00   € 80,00   € 100,00   € 120,00   € 140,00   € 160,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑31 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑25 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑19 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑13 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1 Fig.  1B  -­‐‑ Barcelona Easyjet Ryanair € -­‐‑ € 20,00   € 40,00   € 60,00   € 80,00   € 100,00   € 120,00   € 140,00   € 160,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑31 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑25 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑19 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑13 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1 Fig.  2B  -­‐‑ Berlin Easyjet Ryanair € -­‐‑ € 20,00   € 40,00   € 60,00   € 80,00   € 100,00   € 120,00   € 140,00   € 160,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑31 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑25 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑19 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑13 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1 Fig.  3B  -­‐‑ London Easyjet Ryanair
  • 26.   26   5.2  Cookie  Analysis     Coming  to  the  core  of  the  investigation,  the  cookie  analysis  compares  the  means  of   two  groups  of  data  (for  each  carrier):   • The  first  containing  prices  WITH  COOKIES   • The  second  containing  prices  WITHOUT  COOKIES     The   Analysis   is   based   on   the   “Paired   Sample   T-­test”   since   the   research   aims   at   comparing   means   of   two   related   groups   where   a   different   “treatment”   has   been   applied.     What  is  analyzed  by  SPSS  is  the  difference  between  the  COOKIE-­NOCOOKIE  means.     If  this  different  is  positive,  the  mean  of  the  Cookie  group  results  to  be  higher  than   the   mean   of   the   NoCookie   one,   with   Cookie   prices   being   overall   higher   than   the   NoCookie  ones.     The  results  of  table  2  and  3  are  clear.     The  difference  between  the  sample  means  of  the  cookie  and  no-­cookie  subgroups  is   positive  for  all  the  Carriers.   However,   the   results   of   No-­frills   carriers   other   than   being   way   higher   than   the   Scheduled  ones  (1.22  and  1.02  vs.  0.71  and  0,78  –  highlighted  in  the  table),  are  also   the  only  ones  being  significant  (2-­tails  0.00  vs.  0.87  and  0.12  -­  highlighted  in  the   table).   This  shows  that  both  Ryanair  and  Easyjet  significantly  use  the  information  contained   in  the  Cookie  to  increase  the  ticket  price.                   Table  5  -­  Paired  Samples  Statistics       Mean   N   Std.  Deviation   Std.  Error  Mean  
  • 27.   27   Pair  1   BritishCOOKIE   419.3993   195   269.66195   19.31089   BritishNOCOOKIE   418.6872   195   269.96225   19.33240   Pair  2   LuftCOOKIE   214.6504   199   86.11970   6.10486   LuftNOCOOKIE   213.8629   199   85.94224   6.09228   Pair  3   EasyCOOKIE   89.4143   204   24.67563   1.72764   EasyNOCOOKIE   88.1940   204   24.27706   1.69973   Pair  4   RyanCOOKIE   79.7714   204   32.65570   2.28636   RyanNOCOOKIE   78.7493   204   32.04974   2.24393         Table  6  -­  Paired  Samples  Test       Paired  Differences   t  Mean   Std.   Deviation   Std.   Error   Mean   95%  Confidence   Interval  of  the   Difference   Lower   Upper   Pair  1   BritishCOOKIE  -­   BritishNOCOOKIE   .71210   63.89675   4.57574   -­8.31248   9.73669   .156   Pair  2   LuftCOOKIE  -­   LuftNOCOOKIE   .78754   4.76236   .33760   .12179   1.45328   2.333   Pair  3   EasyCOOKIE  -­   EasyNOCOOKIE   1.22029   1.81788   .12728   .96934   1.47125   9.588   Pair  4   RyanCOOKIE  -­   RyanNOCOOKIE   1.02216   1.67651   .11738   .79072   1.25360   8.708         Table  7  -­  Paired  Samples  Test       df   Sig.  (2-­tailed)   Pair  1   BritishCOOKIE  -­  BritishNOCOOKIE   194   .876   Pair  2   LuftCOOKIE  -­  LuftNOCOOKIE   198   .121   Pair  3   EasyCOOKIE  -­  EasyNOCOOKIE   203   .000   Pair  4   RyanCOOKIE  -­  RyanNOCOOKIE   203   .000       For  what  concerns  the  magnitude  of  the  price  increase,  a  closer  look  at  the  raw  data   would  be  useful.  
  • 28.   28   Even  though  the  change  in  price  is  not  registered  everyday  and  also  the  direction  of   the  change  is  not  always  the  same  (in  the  majority  of  the  cases  the  Cookie  price  is   higher  than  the  No-­cookie  one,  but  in  some  days  the  Cookie  price  is  lower  than  the   No-­Cookie  one),  an  interesting  fact  is  that  the  MAGNITUDE  of  this  change  is  always   constant.     Table   829  represents   the   data   collected   from   the   various   websites   on   day   24   (10   days   before   departure)   and   it   is   exemplificative   of   the   normal   trend   of   the   data   collection.   While  British  Airways  (B)  and  Lufthansa  (L)  do  not  show  any  difference  (Cookie  –   NoCookie   =   0),   Easyjet   (E)   shows   a   2%   increase   while   Ryanair   (R)   increases   by   1.96%.     These  two  percentages  (2%  and  1.96%)  represent  the  constant  magnitude  of  the   price  change;;  indeed,  even  when  the  cookie  price  is  lower  than  the  no-­cookie  one,   the  decrease  is  always  by  a  2%  and  a  1.96%,  respectively  for  Easyjet  and  Ryanair.   Table  8   Price  16th   may   Destinati on   Carrie r   Days  to   departure   Cooki e     Cookie-­ NK  OUT   %change   OUT    €  494.00     London   B   -­10   1   €  0.00   0.0000%    €  711.00     Berlin   B   -­10   1   €  0.00   0.0000%    €  806.00     Barcelona   B   -­10   1   €  0.00   0.0000%    €  105.56     London   E   -­10   1   €  2.07   2.0002%    €  70.88     Berlin   E   -­10   1   €  1.39   2.0003%    €  53.54     Barcelona   E   -­10   1   €  1.05   2.0004%    €  215.89     London   L   -­10   1   €  0.00   0.0000%    €  217.67     Berlin   L   -­10   1   €  0.00   0.0000%    €  316.89     Barcelona   L   -­10   1   €  0.00   0.0000%    €  82.58     London   R   -­10   1   €  1.59   1.9612%    €  58.11     Berlin   R   -­10   1   €  1.12   1.9613%    €  69.32     Barcelona   R   -­10   1   €  1.33   1.9615%   Going  back  to  SPSS  results  (tables  5-­7),  there  are  some  aspects  of  the  behavior  of   the  Scheduled  carriers  (Ryanair  and  Lufthansa)  which  are  not  grasped  by  the  Paired   samples  T-­Test  but  definitely  need  further  examination.                                                                                                                     29  For  simplicity  table  8  doesn’t  contain  (like  table  4)  the  inbound  and  NoCookie  values.  
  • 29.   29   Table   7   shows   that   the   difference   between   the   Scheduled   Airlines   pairs   is   not   significant,  thus  it’s  not  possible  to  state  that  Scheduled  Carriers  make  full  use  of   Browser  Cookies.   Nevertheless,   a   closer   look   to   the   raw   data   gives   useful   insights   about   the   more   subtle  strategy  implemented  by  British  airways  and  Lufthansa.     For  what  concerns  British  Airways,  there  is  no  difference  between  the  Cookie  and   NoCookie  prices  with  one  exception  only.   On  day  2  (32  days  before  departure),  precisely  after  two  days  of  cookie  collection,   the   price   obtained   when   cookies   are   kept   untouched   jumps   by   almost   10%   with   respect   to   the   no   cookie   price   (the   Cookie   price   is   €12.19,   €29.90,   and   €44.16   HIGHER  than  the  no-­cookie  price  in  the  3  destination  selected).     Table  9   Price  16th   may   Destinat ion   Carrie r   Days  to   Departure   Cooki e     Cookie-­NK   OUT   %change   OUT    €  136.19     London   B   -­32   1    €  12.19     9.8343%    €  333.90     Berlin   B   -­32   1    €  29.90     9.8343%    €  493.16     Barcelon a   B   -­32   1    €  44.16     9.8343%    €  87.20     London   E   -­32   1    €  2.07     2.0002%    €  98.28     Berlin   E   -­32   1    €  1.39     2.0002%    €  60.68     Barcelon a   E   -­32   1    €  1.05     -­2.0002%    €  140.88     London   L   -­32   1    €  -­         0.0000%    €  217.67     Berlin   L   -­32   1    €  -­         0.0000%    €  191.88     Barcelon a   L   -­32   1    €  -­         0.0000%    €  40.79     London   R   -­32   1    €  1.59     1.9650%    €  27.53     Berlin   R   -­32   1    €  1.12     1.9650%    €  82.61     Barcelon a   R   -­32   1    €  1.33     1.9650%     With   respect   to   Lufthansa   instead,   the   only   day   in   which   a   non-­zero   difference   between   Cookie   and   NoCookie   Price   is   registered   on   day   5   (29   days   before   departure)  where  a  13.45%  increase  is  detected.    
  • 30.   30   Table  10   Price  16th   may   Destinati on   Carrie r   Days  to   Departure   Cooki e     Cookie-­ NK  OUT   %change   OUT    €  124.00     London   B   -­29   1    €  -­         0.0000%    €  355.00     Berlin   B   -­29   1    €  -­         0.0000%    €  567.00     Barcelona   B   -­29   1    €  -­         0.0000%    €  78.02     London   E   -­29   1    €  -­         0.0000%    €  94.34     Berlin   E   -­29   1    €  -­         0.0000%    €  80.06     Barcelona   E   -­29   1    €  -­         0.0000%    €  244.94     London   L   -­29   1    €  29.05     13.4542%    €  246.96     Berlin   L   -­29   1    €  29.29     13.4545%    €  212.67     Barcelona   L   -­29   1    €  25.22     13.4549%    €  40.79     London   R   -­29   1    €  0.80     2.0005%    €  33.65     Berlin   R   -­29   1    €  0.66     2.0006%    €  82.61     Barcelona   R   -­29   1    €  1.62     2.0002%       The  individual  results  for  British  Airways  and  Lufthansa  are  summarized  in  figure  4-­6   (next   page),   where   the   lines   in   blue   represent   the   outcome   price   in   the   browser   where  cookies  were  kept,  while  the  red  lines  epitomize  the  No-­Cookie  price.   It   is   clear   that   the   lines   are   tangent   all   days   but   day   2   and   5   for   British   and   Lufthansa,  respectively.     In  case  the  reader  wants  to  compare  the  price  distribution  of  the  scheduled  airlines   (presented  below)  with  that  of  the  No-­frills  carriers,  please  refer  to  the  Appendix  A.      
  • 31.   31     € 380,00   € 480,00   € 580,00   € 680,00   € 780,00   € 880,00   € 980,00   € 1.080,00   € 1.180,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑31 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑25 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑19 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑13 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1 Fig.  4A  -­‐‑ British  Airways,   Milan  -­‐‑ Barcelona Cookie NoCookie € -­‐‑ € 200,00   € 400,00   € 600,00   € 800,00   € 1.000,00   € 1.200,00   € 1.400,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑31 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑25 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑19 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑13 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1 Fig.  5A  -­‐‑ British  Airways,   Milan  -­‐‑ Berlin Cookie NoCookie € 100,00   € 150,00   € 200,00   € 250,00   € 300,00   € 350,00   € 400,00   € 450,00   € 500,00   € 550,00   € 600,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑31 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑25 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑19 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑13 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑7 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑1 Fig.  6A  -­‐‑ British  Airways,   Milan  -­‐‑ London Cookie NoCookie € 150,00   € 200,00   € 250,00   € 300,00   € 350,00   € 400,00   € 450,00   € 500,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑32 -­‐‑30 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑26 -­‐‑24 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑20 -­‐‑18 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑14 -­‐‑12 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑8 -­‐‑6 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑2 Fig.  4B  -­‐‑ Lufthansa,   Milan  -­‐‑ Barcelona Cookie NoCookie € 150,00   € 200,00   € 250,00   € 300,00   € 350,00   € 400,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑32 -­‐‑30 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑26 -­‐‑24 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑20 -­‐‑18 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑14 -­‐‑12 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑8 -­‐‑6 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑2 Fig.  5B  -­‐‑ Lufthansa,   Milan  -­‐‑ Berlin Cookie NoCookie € 100,00   € 150,00   € 200,00   € 250,00   € 300,00   € 350,00   € 400,00   € 450,00   € 500,00   € 550,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑32 -­‐‑30 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑26 -­‐‑24 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑20 -­‐‑18 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑14 -­‐‑12 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑8 -­‐‑6 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑2 Fig.  6B  -­‐‑ Lufthansa,   Milan  -­‐‑ London Cookie NoCookie
  • 32.   32   5.3  Correlation  Analysis     The  aim  of  the  correlation  analysis  on  the  prices  is  to  understand  if  Airline  Carriers   take  competitors’  price  into  account  when  computing  the  outcome  price,  that  is,  if   “competitor  price”  is  a  factor  of  the  Airline’s  price  algorithm.   For  each  of  the  three  destinations,  a  correlation  matrix  is  extracted  using  both  the   outbound  and  inbound  NoCookie  (we  are  no  longer  interested  in  the  cookies)  prices.     The  matrices  contain  Pearson  Correlation  Coefficients  (“ϱ”  -­  value  between  -­1  and   +1  inclusive,  where  0  means  “no  correlation).     Table   11,   12   and   13   (next   page)   contain   the   output   of   the   correlation   analysis.   When   ϱ   >0.6   the   value   has   been   highlighted   in   yellow.   In   addition   the   Ryanair-­ Easyjet  correlation  coefficient  has  been  highlighted  in  blue  because  it’s  the  only  one   significantly  higher  than  0.6  in  all  three  matrices  (for  all  destination).     Table  11  –  Milan/Barcelona  Correlations     BritishBAR   EasyBAR   LuftBAR   RyanBAR   BritishBAR   Pearson  Correlation   1   .100   .528**   .541**   Sig.  (2-­tailed)     .574   .002   .001   N   34   34   32   34   EasyBAR   Pearson  Correlation   .100   1   -­.022   .642**   Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .574     .905   .000   N   34   34   32   34   LuftBAR   Pearson  Correlation   .528**   -­.022   1   .278   Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .002   .905     .123   N   32   32   32   32   RyanBAR   Pearson  Correlation   .541**   .642**   .278   1   Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .001   .000   .123     N   34   34   32   34       Table  12  –  Milan/Berlin  Correlations     BritishBER   EasyBER   LuftBER   RyanBER   BritishBER   Pearson  Correlation   1   .456**   .089   .323  
  • 33.   33   Sig.  (2-­tailed)     .007   .619   .000   N   34   34   34   34   EasyBER   Pearson  Correlation   .456**   1   -­.182   .867**   Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .007     .304   .062   N   34   34   34   34   LuftBER   Pearson  Correlation   .089   -­.182   1   .082   Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .619   .304     .646   N   34   34   34   34   RyanBER   Pearson  Correlation   .323   .867**   .082   1   Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .000   .062   .646     N   34   34   34   34       Table  13  –  Milan/London  Correlations     BritishLON   EasyLON   LuftLON   RyanLON   BritishLON   Pearson  Correlation   1   .863**   .611**   .674**   Sig.  (2-­tailed)     .000   .000   .000   N   31   31   31   31   EasyLON   Pearson  Correlation   .863**   1   .702**   .803**   Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .000     .000   .000   N   31   34   34   34   LuftLON   Pearson  Correlation   .611**   .702**   1   .758**   Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .000   .000     .000   N   31   34   34   34   RyanLON   Pearson  Correlation   .674**   .803**   .758**   1   Sig.  (2-­tailed)   .000   .000   .000     N   31   34   34   34     **.  Correlation  is  significant  at  the  0.01  level  (2-­tailed).     The   analysis   shows   that   the   No-­Frill   carriers   mutually   influence   their   prices   in   all   three  destinations,  while  some  degree  of  correlation  across  ALL  carriers  is  detected   only  in  the  Milan-­London  route,  probably  the  busiest  and  most  competitive  one.   6.  Conclusions  and  Recommendations      
  • 34.   34   All   in   all,   the   SPSS   analyses   have   revealed   some   important   characteristic   of   the   strategic  behavior  of  the  different  Carriers.     The   scope   of   the   results   presented   in   this   paper   is   however   limited   due   to   the   sample   size   used   in   the   SPSS   analysis   and   the   short   timeframe   of   collection.   A   research   longer   than   34   days   could   probably   produce   a   wider   and   more   precise   range  of  insights.     Recalling  Wallenberg’s  airline  pricing  model,  the  three  factors  proposed  there  can  be   integrated   with   at   least   two   new   ones:   Previous   Customer’s   Researches   and   Competitors’  prices.     Previous   Customer’s   research   varies   according   to   the   cookies   accrued   on   the   customer’s  browser.     Even   though   the   investigation   revealed   that   all   studied   Airlines   make   use   of   the   cookies  in  some  way,  the  strategy  that  each  Carrier  implements  is  different  and  a   pattern  of  similarity  can  be  detected  with  respect  to  the  type  of  Carrier:     • No-­frills   (Ryanair   and   Easyjet)   seem   to   be   using   cookie   information   on   a   regular  (daily30 )  basis,  with  the  same  magnitude  (1.96%  and  2%)  and  overall   slight   positive   direction   (cookies   make   the   outcome   price   increase).   The   rationale  behind  this  strategy  is  that  Carriers,  knowing  that  the  customer  is   checking  a  given  route,  increases  the  fare  for  that  route  accordingly.   • Scheduled  carriers  (British  Airways  and  Lufthansa)  use  the  cookie  information   in  a  more  subtle  and  hidden  way.     Even  though  the  rationale  is  probably  the  same  (making  the  price  higher  for   the  customers  who  seem  to  be  more  interested  in  a  given  route),  the  strategy   differs.  The  price  increase  is  way  sharper  (9.8%  and  13.1%,  respectively  for   BA  and  L)  and  applied  only  one  time,  some  days  after  the  cookie  information   is   detected   (after   2   and   5   days,   respectively   for   BA   and   L).   This   kind   of   approach   is   possibly   implemented   to   make   customers   think   that   the   ticket   price   is   rising   fast   encouraging   them   to   make   the   purchase   as   quickly   as   possible.                                                                                                                   30  Refer  to  Appendix  A  to  see  the  regularity  of  No-­‐‑frills  price  change.  
  • 35.   35     The   factor   Competitor’s   price   has   been   introduced   given   that   the   daily   “price   catalog”  is  available  for  everyone  (including  competitors  and  the  researcher)  online.     Airlines  can  therefore  adapt  their  pricing  model  considering  competitors’  behavior.     Given  the  correlation  analysis  conducted  here,  two  remarks  have  to  be  made:   • No-­frills   take   competitors’   fare   into   account   more   often   than   scheduled   carriers.  For  all  of  the  destinations  studied,  the  Pearson  coefficient  between   Easyjet  and  Ryanair’s  prices  is  above  0.6  and  significant.  Given  that  the  price   No-­Frills   offer   is   way   lower   than   their   Scheduled   rivals,   the   competition   between  firms  is  way  more  intense  (data  reported  in  tables  11-­13).   • Some  routes  in  which  a  multitude  of  Carriers  happen  to  compete  (due  to  the   higher   customers’   demand),   requires   all   Carriers   to   check   competitors’   fare   and   modify   their   strategy   accordingly.   This   is   what   happens   in   the   route   Milan-­London  (Table  13).     In   conclusion,   the   high   variability   of   Ticket   fares   shows   how   Dynamic   Pricing   strategies  evolved  and  improved  as  technologies  advances.   Browser  Cookies  Strategies  consists  in  just  another  step  forward  with  respect  to  the   way   price   discrimination   is   implemented   on   the   market.   Even   though   price   discrimination  is  economically  feasible  and  efficient  from  a  theoretical  point  of  view,   the  real  life  implementation  of  this  practices  poses  social,  ethical  and  legal  concerns   (discussed  more  rigorously  in  Appendix  B).  
  • 36.   36   Appendix  A  –  Cookie-­NoCookie  price  distribution  in  No-­ Frills  Carriers.   € 40,00   € 50,00   € 60,00   € 70,00   € 80,00   € 90,00   € 100,00   € 110,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑32 -­‐‑30 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑26 -­‐‑24 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑20 -­‐‑18 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑14 -­‐‑12 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑8 -­‐‑6 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑2 EasyJet,  Milan  -­‐‑ Barcelona Cookie NoCookie € 60,00   € 70,00   € 80,00   € 90,00   € 100,00   € 110,00   € 120,00   € 130,00   € 140,00   € 150,00   € 160,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑32 -­‐‑30 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑26 -­‐‑24 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑20 -­‐‑18 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑14 -­‐‑12 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑8 -­‐‑6 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑2 EasyJet,  Milan  -­‐‑ Berlin Cookie NoCookie € 70,00   € 80,00   € 90,00   € 100,00   € 110,00   € 120,00   € 130,00   € 140,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑32 -­‐‑30 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑26 -­‐‑24 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑20 -­‐‑18 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑14 -­‐‑12 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑8 -­‐‑6 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑2 EasyJet,  Milan  -­‐‑ London Cookie NoCookie
  • 37.   37     € 20,00   € 30,00   € 40,00   € 50,00   € 60,00   € 70,00   € 80,00   € 90,00   € 100,00   € 110,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑32 -­‐‑30 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑26 -­‐‑24 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑20 -­‐‑18 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑14 -­‐‑12 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑8 -­‐‑6 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑2 Ryanair,  Milan  -­‐‑ Berlin Cookie NoCookie € 20,00   € 40,00   € 60,00   € 80,00   € 100,00   € 120,00   € 140,00   € 160,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑32 -­‐‑30 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑26 -­‐‑24 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑20 -­‐‑18 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑14 -­‐‑12 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑8 -­‐‑6 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑2 Ryanair,  Milan  -­‐‑ London Cookie NoCookie € 40,00   € 60,00   € 80,00   € 100,00   € 120,00   € 140,00   € 160,00   -­‐‑34 -­‐‑32 -­‐‑30 -­‐‑28 -­‐‑26 -­‐‑24 -­‐‑22 -­‐‑20 -­‐‑18 -­‐‑16 -­‐‑14 -­‐‑12 -­‐‑10 -­‐‑8 -­‐‑6 -­‐‑4 -­‐‑2 Ryanair,  Milan  -­‐‑ Barcelona Cookie NoCookie
  • 38.   38   Appendix  B  –  Ethical,  Social  and  Legal  Consequences  of   Dynamic  Pricing  with  Browser  Cookies       Dynamic  Pricing  is  a  form  of  first  degree  price  discrimination,  a  practice  considered   economically  efficient  due  to  the  reduction  of  the  overall  dead-­weight  loss.   From  a  theoretical  point  of  view,  these  practices  allow  producers  to  capture  part  of   the  consumer’s  surplus,  with  the  result  that  the  total  efficiency  is  increased,  but  a   redistribution  of  resources  is  implemented    to  the  consumer’s  detriment.       In  real  life,  the  application  of  dynamic  pricing  strategies  are  taking  off,  albeit  slowly   due  to  producers’  fears  of  possible  consumer  negative  response  to  these  practices   on  ground  of  unfairness.   For  instance,  some  kind  of  dynamic  pricing  strategy  applied  by  Amazon  using  the   purchasing  history  of  customers  was  discovered  by  a  customer  who  saw  the  price  of   a  DVD  dropping  from  $26.24  to  $22.74  when  logging  into  Amazon  from  a  different   account.   The  adverse  customer  reaction  to  this  event  and  the  bad  publicity  connected  to  the   episode,  forced  Amazon  to  publicly  apologize  and  refund  the  customers  who  had  to   pay  higher  prices  (Ramasastry,  2005)   This   shows   that   the   average   consumer   perceives   Dynamic   Pricing   as   a   TOTALLY   UNFAIR  practice.     With  respect  to  this  in  2009,  the  Directive  2009/136/Ce  has  entered  into  force.  This   directive   aims   at   protecting   unaware   users   from   the   unrestricted   utilization   of   Cookies  by  third  parties.   With  respect  to  information  stored  by  websites  on  the  users  equipment  legitimately   (Cookies)  “it  is  therefore  of  paramount  importance  that  users  be  provided  with  clear   and  comprehensive  information  when  engaging  in  any  activity  which  could  result  in   such   storage   or   gaining   of   access.   The   methods   of   providing   information   and   offering   the   right   to   refuse   should   be   as   user-­friendly   as   possible”   (Directive   2009/136/Ce).  
  • 39.   39   The   comprehensive   information   cited   above   is   practically   realized   by   disclaimers,   which  inform  the  user  more  or  less  clearly,  that  their  data  is  being  utilized.   Fig.  7  and  8  present  some  examples  taken  from  the  Airline  websites  used  during  the   investigation  with  Ryanair  being  the  clearest  one  (pop-­up  available  on  every  page).   Fig.  7  -­  Ryanair       Fig.  8  –  British  Airways    
  • 40.   40   References     Barry  C.  Smith,  Dirk  P.  Günther,  B.  Venkateshwara  Rao,  Richard  M.  Ratlife,   (2001).  E-­Commerce  and  Operations  Research  in  Airline  Planning,  Marketing,  and   Distribution.  Interfaces  31(2),  37-­55.   Buhalis,   D.   (2004).   eAirlines:   strategic   and   tactical   use   of   ICTs   in   the   airline   industry.  Information  &  Management.  41  (1),  805–825.     Burger,   B.   &   Fuchs,   M..   (2004).   Dynamic   pricing   —   A   future   airline   business   model.  Journal  of  Revenue  and  Pricing  Management.  4  (2),  39-­53.     BusinessDictionary.com   -­   Online   Business   Dictionary.   (2014).   [ONLINE]   Available  at:  http://www.businessdictionary.com.  [Last  accessed  23  May  2014].     Chin,  C.  L.  (2004).  Airline  Pricing  Model.  Available:   http://cs.brown.edu/people/clc/airfaresim/model.pdf   .   [Last   accessed   15th   May   2014].     Elmaghraby,   W.   and   Keskinocak,   P.   (2002).   ‘Dynamic   pricing:   Research   overview,   current   practices   and   future   Directions’,   Technical   Report,   Logistics   Institute,  Georgia  Tech  and  The  Logistic  Institute  –  Asia  Pacific,  National  University   of  Singapore.   European   parliament   and   of   the   council.   (2009).   Directive   2009/136/EC.   Available:   http://eur-­ lex.europa.eu/legalcontent/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32009L0136&from=EN.   Last   accessed  20th  May  2014.       Fredrik   Wallenberg.   (2000).   A   Study   of   Airline   Pricing.   School   of   Information   Management  &  Systems,  University  of  California  at  Berkeley.  1  (1),  1-­33.    
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