Devopsdays Mountain View 2012 Ignite on Letting Go

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Ignite Talk slides from Devopsdays Mountain View 2012. Learning to Let Go - Cognitive Bias and Sunk Cost. By Dominica DeGrandis

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Learning to Let Go - Cognitive Bias and
Sunk Cost

Dominica DeGrandis
@dominicad
Devopsdays
Mountain View 2012

#LSSC12

http://vimeo.com/channels/339107

If
I
could
go
back
and
start
over,

would
I
s5ll
do
it
at
all?

Looking
at
“abandoned
work”
hit

a
nerve.

Every
idea
coming
down
the
pipe

won’t
make
it.

analyze dev

test monitor
idea maintain
design build deliver

Sunk
cost
fallacy

Studies
going
back
to
the
1970s

show
we
don’t
equate
loss
and
gain.

Sunk
Cost
Fallacy

Aversion
to
loss
leads
us
to
want
to

hang
on
to
things
that
we’ve

invested
heavily
in.

“When
it
came
5me
for
us
to
change

company
direc5ons,
I
had
to
be

dragged
kicking
and
screaming.
I
did

not
want
to
let
go
of
all
that
code.
“

-‐Eric
Ries

Showing
abandoned
work

Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake

Don’t waste the waste!

Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake

How
will
we
know?

120

100

On hold

Proposed
80 Prioritised

Ready for Dev

Dev
60 Testing

Ready for Release

Released
40
Implemented

20

0

Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake

Deployed,
but
never
used

120

100

On hold

Proposed
80 Prioritised

Ready for Dev

Dev
60 Testing

Ready for Release

Released
40
Implemented

20

0

Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake

What’s the point?

1.  Visualizing abandoned work is a good thing.
it provokes discussions that pave the way for
improvements.

2.  Learn from sunk costs and move on.

Sources

Kanban,
Successful
Evolu1onary
Change
for
Your
Technology
Business,
2010

David
J.
Anderson,

@agilemanager

hSp://agilemanagement.net/index.php/kanbanbook/

Startup
Lessons
Learned.
Throwing
away
working
code,

Eric
Ries,

2009
@ericries

hSp://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2009/02/throwing-‐away-‐working-‐code.html

You
Are
Not
So
Smart.
The
Sunk
Cost
Fallacy,
David
McRaney

@davidmcraney

hSp://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/03/25/the-‐sunk-‐cost-‐fallacy/

Don’t
Waste
the
Waste,
Mike
Burrows,
2012
@asplake

hSp://posi5veincline.com/

The
Framing
of
Decisions
and
the
Psychology
of
Choice
,

Amos
Tversky;
Daniel
Kahneman

Science,
New
Series,
Vol.
211,
No.
4481.
(Jan.
30,
1981),
pp.
453-‐458

hSp://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/1685855?uid=3739656&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256&sid=56280093313

While making judgments and decisions about the world around us, we like to think that we are Objective,Logical, and Capable of taking in and evaluating all the information that is available to us. The reality is that our judgments and decisions are often riddled with errors and influenced by a wide variety of biases. The human brain is both remarkable and powerful, but certainly subject to limitations. One type of fundamental limitation on human thinking is known as a cognitive bias.

Cognitive biases - a visual study guide

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Hello Everyone, A big thank you for all the interest in this study guide. It was originally created as a fun introduction that took the Cognitive Bias wiki and tried to make it easier to memorize. However, the authors of the wiki article have expressed some concern over the accuracy of certain entries. The document was taken down until that could be corrected. But, people started asking that I release a new version with a warning. In response, a new "Beta version" of the document has been uploaded with a very strong warning label up front and improved citations. I make it clear that all the text is based on an evolving wiki page and that some of the cognitive biases in there might be incorrect wiki entries. My hope is that this will continue to get people interested in pitching in to help fix the Cognitive Bias wiki pages. :) When the wiki is in a good place, I will take the document out of Beta, and will remove the warning label. If you are a cognitive expert, join “Operation Fix The Cognitive Bias Wiki!” Add your suggestion to the conversation here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:List_of_cognitive_biases Thanks for your interest! Eric P.S. . The images have been updated for better remixing and sharing rights. Rather than using permission based images, now all the images are public domain or free non-commercial use by anyone.

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Devopsdays Mountain View 2012 Ignite on Letting Go

1. Learning to Let Go - Cognitive Bias and Sunk Cost Dominica DeGrandis @dominicad Devopsdays Mountain View 2012

2. #LSSC12 http://vimeo.com/channels/339107

3. If I could go back and start over, would I s5ll do it at all?

4. Looking at “abandoned work” hit a nerve.

6. waste

7. Every idea coming down the pipe won’t make it. analyze dev test monitor idea maintain design build deliver

9. Sunk cost fallacy Studies going back to the 1970s show we don’t equate loss and gain.

10. Sunk Cost Fallacy Aversion to loss leads us to want to hang on to things that we’ve invested heavily in.

11. “When it came 5me for us to change company direc5ons, I had to be dragged kicking and screaming. I did not want to let go of all that code. “ -‐Eric Ries

12. Showing abandoned work Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake

13. Showing abandoned work Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake

14. Don’t waste the waste! Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake

15. How will we know? 120 100 On hold Proposed 80 Prioritised Ready for Dev Dev 60 Testing Ready for Release Released 40 Implemented 20 0 Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake

16. Showing abandoned work Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake

17. Deployed, but never used 120 100 On hold Proposed 80 Prioritised Ready for Dev Dev 60 Testing Ready for Release Released 40 Implemented 20 0 Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake

18. What’s the point? 1.  Visualizing abandoned work is a good thing. it provokes discussions that pave the way for improvements. 2.  Learn from sunk costs and move on.

19. Sources Kanban, Successful Evolu1onary Change for Your Technology Business, 2010 David J. Anderson, @agilemanager hSp://agilemanagement.net/index.php/kanbanbook/ Startup Lessons Learned. Throwing away working code, Eric Ries, 2009 @ericries hSp://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2009/02/throwing-‐away-‐working-‐code.html You Are Not So Smart. The Sunk Cost Fallacy, David McRaney @davidmcraney hSp://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/03/25/the-‐sunk-‐cost-‐fallacy/ Don’t Waste the Waste, Mike Burrows, 2012 @asplake hSp://posi5veincline.com/ The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice , Amos Tversky; Daniel Kahneman Science, New Series, Vol. 211, No. 4481. (Jan. 30, 1981), pp. 453-‐458 hSp://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/1685855?uid=3739656&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256&sid=56280093313

20. Learning to Let Go - Cognitive Bias and Sunk Cost Dominica DeGrandis @dominicad Devopsdays Mountain View 2012

Devopsdays Mountain View 2012 Ignite on Letting Go

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