The Juniper Approach is a process modeling methodology used to facilitate group discussions and decision making. It uses a hierarchical structure to break complex problems down into smaller processes. Judgements about uncertainty can be input and propagated up the structure to support decisions. The approach was developed with oil industry sponsorship to help teams manage asset portfolios by recording and exploring decision making processes.

1. JUNIPER A process modelling methodology Uses judgements on uncertainty Is hierarchical in its structure But is NOT a decision tree Used to facilitate group discussions and opinions

2. The Juniper Approach in Context This is not a trademark piece of software Came about by Oil Industry sponsorship to research decision-making processes As part of their asset team portfolio management Basically they wanted a vehicle to take into meetings that could facilitate and record the decision making process discussed

3. A typical decision? Where shall I drill my next well? Just because one well has struck oil doesn’t mean that another in the vicinity will

4. So where to start? Thinking organised around processes And how processes break down into smaller ones Until we define our problem to the required level of detail Difficulties are: How to decide on the problem How to make the judgements How to best structure the problem

6. Processes Try to think of them in terms of something that is ‘ongoing’ Try to therefore use a sensible verb that conveys this E.g. establishing, determining, doing, etc Define them only to the level you feel is fit for purpose

9. Review of Task Focus on Objective Process Structure the Problem Appropriately Make Judgements of Evidence Use Interval Probability Theory to propagate judgements Use propagation to support decisions

10. Evidence and Uncertainty Evidence For and Against Success Uncertainty Sufficiency Dependency Necessity

26. The idea is that …….. As you change your judgements you can see the effect of any changes on the higher processes If the read and the green collided you will get an amber colour Meaning WARNING! In this case you should revisit some of your judgments as this is an illegal state as the evidence for and against has crossed over!