SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Navigation 101

   Presentation to the
Leadership New Zealand
Future Thinking Workshop

        Rick Boven
      28 October 2011
      www.nzinstitute.org
       www.nzahead.org
Economic



             Setting direction   Social



Leadership   Aligning            Environmental



             Motivating



                                                 2
LOW PRODUCTIVITY EXPORT SECTORS

                                                                              Size of bubble reflects share of total workers

                     3%



                     2%
                                       Agriculture, forestry,
                                        fishing & mining

                1%
   Compound
annual growth                                                          Manufacturing
rate in output,                       Tourism
   2000-2009 0%


                    -1%

                                                          NZ average
                                                                           OECD $60          Australia $71
                                                             $49
                    -2%
                          20           30            40           50            60           70           80            90         100

                                              Estimated 2009 output per hour worked, 2010 NZ$
Note: Data includes export and domestic. Sources: The Conference Board (2011) Total Economy Database. OECD datasets: Employment;
Hours worked. Statistics New Zealand: Tourism Satellite Account; Quarterly Employment Survey; Gross Domestic Product.                    3
NEW ZEALAND’S ECONOMIC TRANSITION


         International
            markets

                                                  TARGET STATE


 FOCUS
         production
          Domestic




                         CURRENT STATE




                            Commodity               Differentiated
                              goods               goods and services

                                         EFFORT
MANY OPPORTUNITIES TO GROW HIGH VALUE
DIFFERENTIATED EXPORTS

Value-added food businesses that are anchored here


Niche manufacturing, including selected clean-tech, where a small exporter can
be a world leader, avoiding scale disadvantage


ICT, where distance and scale are less important barriers to success
• Lifting capability in these industries helps domestic productivity too


Services sectors where world class technology can be acquired and NZ labour
costs are relatively low
• Successes in engineering, education, financial, medical etc.
• Competitive advantage can be increased by legal innovation

   TOP 100 INTERNATIONALLY ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY BUSINESSES
       EXPORT AROUND $5b pa WITH VERY HIGH PRODUCTIVITY
                                                                                 5
PLUGGING THE GAP




                                         6
  Image courtesy of Lee ter Wal Design
TALENT AND CAPITAL VIRTUOUS CIRCLE




                                     7
SUMMARY OF NEW ZEALAND YOUTH DISADVANTAGE




                                            8
PERCENT AT EACH PROFICIENCY LEVEL ACROSS
     READING, MATHEMATICS AND SCIENCE, 2009

     30


     25


     20


     15


     10


      5
                                                                                New Zealand
                                                                               OECD average
      0
              Below     Level 1   Level 2   Level 3   Level 4   Level 5    Level 6
              Level 1                                                     (Highest)

Source: OECD (2010).                                                                      9
MEAN PISA RESULTS ACROSS READING, MATHEMATICS
     AND SCIENCE BY ETHNICITY

     560                                                             2000
                                                                            03   06 09
     540

     520

     500

     480

     460

     440

     420

     400
                  Pacific peoples                    Māori   Asian   Pākehā/European

Source: Education Counts (2000, 2003, 2006, 2009).                                       10
YOUTH AGED 15-24 AS PERCENT OF TOTAL
     UNEMPLOYED, 2009

     50
     45
     40
     35
     30
                                            OECD average
     25
     20
     15
     10
       5
       0




Source: OECD (2010).                                       11
SHARE OF LABOUR FORCE COMPARED TO SHARE OF
     UNEMPLOYED, AGED 15-19, 2010
                       30



                                                    New Zealand
                                                     Australia


                       20
                                           UK
                                Sweden               Netherlands
            Share of                                Denmark
       unemployed, %                             Canada
                                  Finland

                                   Chile        Austria
                       10          USA              Turkey

                                Israel        Switzerland
                                Italy Ireland
                                     Luxembourg
                                     Germany
                                    Japan
                                Hungary
                       0
                            0                             10                   20    30
                                                          Share of labour force, %
Source: OECD (2011).                                                                      12
VICIOUS CYCLE


   Poor                             Many
              Serious
 economic
            social issues      disadvantaged
 outcomes
                                 5 year olds




                 Many                            Disengaged
              unemployed                          students




                   Unsuccessful            Leaving school
                  school to work            early with low
                    transition              qualifications



                                                              13
TWO PROPOSALS TO REDUCE YOUTH DISADVANTAGE


      Accelerate roll-out    Improve the
         of e-learning      school-to-work
    to low decile schools     transition




                                             14
E-LEARNING DELIVERS ENGAGEMENT,
BETTER LEARNING AND LOWER UNEMPLOYMENT


                                    Staying at
             Engagement
                                     school


E-learning
                                                       Less youth
                                                     unemployment




                                            Better
                  Better learning
                                         qualifications


                                                                15
VALUE ADDED SNAPSHOT FOR READING AT
      PT. ENGLAND SCHOOL

                  9

                  8

                  7

                  6                                            2009
     Stanine                                                   2008 2010
                       NZ average
                  5

                                                               2007
                  4

                  3

                  2

                  1
                      0              1   2   3         4   5   6       7
                                             School year
Source: Pt. England School (2010).                                         16
CO2 CONCENTRATION IN ATMOSPHERE, JULY
     1990-2011, PPM
      400

      390

      380

      370

      360

      350

      340

      330




Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2011) Atmospheric CO2.
                                                                                  17
AVERAGE OF COMMODITY PRICES, 2000 = 100

       600

       500

       400

       300

       200

       100

           0




Note: Commodities include aluminium, copper, crude petroleum, gold, iron ore, maize, rice, silver and wheat.
Source: The World Bank (2011) Commodity Price Data.                                                            18
THE COBB-DOUGLAS PRODUCTION FUNCTION


                   Output = TQ Lα Kβ
TQ represents the effectiveness of the technology of production

L and K represent the amounts of input of labour and capital
respectively

The parameters α and β indicate how much the output changes with
changes in the inputs




                                                                   19
EVERYTHING WE FOCUS ON MEANS WE MISS
SOMETHING ELSE




                                       20
PARADIGM CONFLICT

Economic – 20th Century thinking           Environmental – 21st Century thinking

Economy is small relative to environment   Economy is large relative to environment

With limited exceptions, resources can     Resource and waste sink
be taken from the environment and          constraints, and accumulated
wastes can be released to the              environmental damage threaten output
environment without adverse                growth and human well-being
consequences

Environmental issues resolved by           Environmental threats increasing and
substitutes, technologies and market       responses are insufficient
instruments

The future will be an extension of the     The future will be different from the past
past

Societal objective should be to maximise   Societal objective should be to avoid risk
GDP

                                                                                        21
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?


Commodity prices will continue to increase

Countries will manage supply chain risks and become more self-
sufficient

Globalisation may slow or even reverse

Societal management will become more complex and difficult

Power may be more centralised initially and fragmentation may develop
later


                                                                        22
IMPLICATIONS FOR NEW ZEALAND

Increasing prices for commodity exports

Increasing attractiveness to migrants and investors as a relatively safe
haven

Strategy to grow exports of high value goods and services

Investment in innovation and skills

New performance metrics to emphasise the quality and effects of
economic growth

Risk management will become a more important priority

                                                                           23
WHEN GOVERNMENTS FAIL, WHY DO THEY
FAIL?
“In the first stage, mental standstill fixes the principles and boundaries governing a political
problem.

In the second stage, when dissonances and failing function begin to appear, the initial
principles rigidify.
This is a period when, if wisdom were operative, re-examination and rethinking and a change
of course are possible, but they are as rare as rubies in a backyard.
Rigidifying leads to increase of investment and the need to protect egos; policy formed on error
multiplies, never retreats. The greater the investment and the more involved in it the sponsor’s
ego, the more unacceptable is disengagement.

In the third stage, pursuit of failure enlarges the damages until it causes the fall of Troy, the
defection from the Papacy, the loss of a trans-Atlantic empire, the classic humiliation in
Vietnam.
...
Persistence in error is the problem.”                   - Barbara Tuchman
                                                        The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam
                                                        (1984)                                 24

More Related Content

What's hot

Ict education & job trends july 2012
Ict education  & job trends july 2012Ict education  & job trends july 2012
Ict education & job trends july 2012
Garry Roberton
 
Ict education & job trends september 2012
Ict education  & job trends september 2012Ict education  & job trends september 2012
Ict education & job trends september 2012
Garry Roberton
 
Building An Age Neutral Society
Building An Age Neutral SocietyBuilding An Age Neutral Society
Building An Age Neutral Society
Silver Group Consultancy
 
The Estonian Economy, No. 2 - July 27, 2012
The Estonian Economy, No. 2 - July 27, 2012The Estonian Economy, No. 2 - July 27, 2012
The Estonian Economy, No. 2 - July 27, 2012
Swedbank
 
Pop Cap’s First Year In China
Pop Cap’s First Year In ChinaPop Cap’s First Year In China
Pop Cap’s First Year In China
James Gwertzman
 
Water the Israeli experience
Water the Israeli experienceWater the Israeli experience
Water the Israeli experience
Sharon Weshler
 

What's hot (6)

Ict education & job trends july 2012
Ict education  & job trends july 2012Ict education  & job trends july 2012
Ict education & job trends july 2012
 
Ict education & job trends september 2012
Ict education  & job trends september 2012Ict education  & job trends september 2012
Ict education & job trends september 2012
 
Building An Age Neutral Society
Building An Age Neutral SocietyBuilding An Age Neutral Society
Building An Age Neutral Society
 
The Estonian Economy, No. 2 - July 27, 2012
The Estonian Economy, No. 2 - July 27, 2012The Estonian Economy, No. 2 - July 27, 2012
The Estonian Economy, No. 2 - July 27, 2012
 
Pop Cap’s First Year In China
Pop Cap’s First Year In ChinaPop Cap’s First Year In China
Pop Cap’s First Year In China
 
Water the Israeli experience
Water the Israeli experienceWater the Israeli experience
Water the Israeli experience
 

Viewers also liked

Editorial Cartoons
Editorial CartoonsEditorial Cartoons
Editorial Cartoons
Sarah
 
Power point del photoshop
Power point del photoshopPower point del photoshop
Power point del photoshopclaranabar
 
TUGAS 3
TUGAS 3TUGAS 3
Curriculum vitae of ali osman yildirim june 2016
Curriculum vitae of ali osman yildirim june 2016Curriculum vitae of ali osman yildirim june 2016
Curriculum vitae of ali osman yildirim june 2016
Ali Osman YILDIRIM
 
削減50元成本和提高100元售價,何者才能賺錢?
削減50元成本和提高100元售價,何者才能賺錢?削減50元成本和提高100元售價,何者才能賺錢?
削減50元成本和提高100元售價,何者才能賺錢?
Chang Chiao Hui
 
cv. andrie
cv. andriecv. andrie
cv. andrie
andrie nugraha
 
18 fluids lytes
18 fluids lytes18 fluids lytes
18 fluids lytes
CHENKINDAO
 
El avion
El avionEl avion
El avion
kevin3123240790
 
Zmudzinska
ZmudzinskaZmudzinska
Foreign subsidiary opening procedure in Pakistan
Foreign subsidiary opening procedure in PakistanForeign subsidiary opening procedure in Pakistan
Foreign subsidiary opening procedure in Pakistan
Superior University, Lahore
 
Kuruçeşme Rotaty Kulübü Sunumu
Kuruçeşme Rotaty Kulübü SunumuKuruçeşme Rotaty Kulübü Sunumu
Kuruçeşme Rotaty Kulübü Sunumu
Boni
 
Introduction To Marketing
Introduction To MarketingIntroduction To Marketing
Introduction To Marketing
Tasneem Amin
 
Wwii holocaust-overview-8952
Wwii holocaust-overview-8952Wwii holocaust-overview-8952
Wwii holocaust-overview-8952
liclauraflores
 
Steve Raquel - SMW
Steve Raquel - SMWSteve Raquel - SMW
Ip Office Brochure
Ip Office BrochureIp Office Brochure
Ip Office Brochure
Sovereign Data Connect
 
Els Drets Dela Infants. Article
Els Drets Dela Infants. ArticleEls Drets Dela Infants. Article
Els Drets Dela Infants. Article
Aula Oberta
 
60-letnia matka - Raport Monitori.pl
60-letnia matka - Raport Monitori.pl 60-letnia matka - Raport Monitori.pl
60-letnia matka - Raport Monitori.pl
Monitori
 

Viewers also liked (18)

Editorial Cartoons
Editorial CartoonsEditorial Cartoons
Editorial Cartoons
 
Power point del photoshop
Power point del photoshopPower point del photoshop
Power point del photoshop
 
TUGAS 3
TUGAS 3TUGAS 3
TUGAS 3
 
Curriculum vitae of ali osman yildirim june 2016
Curriculum vitae of ali osman yildirim june 2016Curriculum vitae of ali osman yildirim june 2016
Curriculum vitae of ali osman yildirim june 2016
 
削減50元成本和提高100元售價,何者才能賺錢?
削減50元成本和提高100元售價,何者才能賺錢?削減50元成本和提高100元售價,何者才能賺錢?
削減50元成本和提高100元售價,何者才能賺錢?
 
cv. andrie
cv. andriecv. andrie
cv. andrie
 
18 fluids lytes
18 fluids lytes18 fluids lytes
18 fluids lytes
 
El avion
El avionEl avion
El avion
 
Zmudzinska
ZmudzinskaZmudzinska
Zmudzinska
 
Foreign subsidiary opening procedure in Pakistan
Foreign subsidiary opening procedure in PakistanForeign subsidiary opening procedure in Pakistan
Foreign subsidiary opening procedure in Pakistan
 
Kuruçeşme Rotaty Kulübü Sunumu
Kuruçeşme Rotaty Kulübü SunumuKuruçeşme Rotaty Kulübü Sunumu
Kuruçeşme Rotaty Kulübü Sunumu
 
Introduction To Marketing
Introduction To MarketingIntroduction To Marketing
Introduction To Marketing
 
Wwii holocaust-overview-8952
Wwii holocaust-overview-8952Wwii holocaust-overview-8952
Wwii holocaust-overview-8952
 
Steve Raquel - SMW
Steve Raquel - SMWSteve Raquel - SMW
Steve Raquel - SMW
 
Ip Office Brochure
Ip Office BrochureIp Office Brochure
Ip Office Brochure
 
Els Drets Dela Infants. Article
Els Drets Dela Infants. ArticleEls Drets Dela Infants. Article
Els Drets Dela Infants. Article
 
60-letnia matka - Raport Monitori.pl
60-letnia matka - Raport Monitori.pl 60-letnia matka - Raport Monitori.pl
60-letnia matka - Raport Monitori.pl
 
план фхд 2015
план фхд 2015план фхд 2015
план фхд 2015
 

Similar to Leadership NZ - Rick Boven

Governing Education in a Context of Economic Recession
Governing Education in a Context of Economic RecessionGoverning Education in a Context of Economic Recession
Governing Education in a Context of Economic Recession
EduSkills OECD
 
Governing education in a context of economic recession
Governing education in a context of economic recessionGoverning education in a context of economic recession
Governing education in a context of economic recession
UNDP Eurasia
 
Governing education in a context of economic recession
Governing education in a context of economic recessionGoverning education in a context of economic recession
Governing education in a context of economic recession
dvndamme
 
Apresentação Ciro Vasquez | OIS 2011 | Painel: Cooperação internacional e ino...
Apresentação Ciro Vasquez | OIS 2011 | Painel: Cooperação internacional e ino...Apresentação Ciro Vasquez | OIS 2011 | Painel: Cooperação internacional e ino...
Apresentação Ciro Vasquez | OIS 2011 | Painel: Cooperação internacional e ino...
Allagi Open Innovation Services
 
The Norwegian Competence Reform - Background, measures, results and lessons
The Norwegian Competence Reform - Background, measures, results and lessons The Norwegian Competence Reform - Background, measures, results and lessons
The Norwegian Competence Reform - Background, measures, results and lessons
EduSkills OECD
 
OECD-main-findings-Sweden-2015-growth-and-skills
OECD-main-findings-Sweden-2015-growth-and-skillsOECD-main-findings-Sweden-2015-growth-and-skills
OECD-main-findings-Sweden-2015-growth-and-skills
OECD, Economics Department
 
Strengths and weaknesses of national systems of human capital development in ...
Strengths and weaknesses of national systems of human capital development in ...Strengths and weaknesses of national systems of human capital development in ...
Strengths and weaknesses of national systems of human capital development in ...
dvndamme
 
Economic Complexity Index Australia
Economic Complexity Index AustraliaEconomic Complexity Index Australia
Economic Complexity Index Australia
Stuart Hazell
 
International Perspectives on High Growth Entrepreneurship
International Perspectives on High Growth EntrepreneurshipInternational Perspectives on High Growth Entrepreneurship
International Perspectives on High Growth Entrepreneurship
Nordic Innovation
 
Onderwijs en jeugdwerkloosheid
Onderwijs en jeugdwerkloosheidOnderwijs en jeugdwerkloosheid
Onderwijs en jeugdwerkloosheid
dvndamme
 
Guardian 2010
Guardian 2010Guardian 2010
Guardian 2010
Kolds
 
Roff - we are in the people business
Roff - we are in the people businessRoff - we are in the people business
Roff - we are in the people business
European Economic and Social Committee - SOC Section
 
War For Talent In 2010 Mc Kinsey Fei2
War For Talent In 2010 Mc Kinsey Fei2War For Talent In 2010 Mc Kinsey Fei2
War For Talent In 2010 Mc Kinsey Fei2
ptheriault
 
Investing in youth Lithuania
Investing in youth   LithuaniaInvesting in youth   Lithuania
Keynote The Arkansas Distance Learning Association (ARDLA)
Keynote The Arkansas Distance Learning Association (ARDLA) Keynote The Arkansas Distance Learning Association (ARDLA)
Keynote The Arkansas Distance Learning Association (ARDLA)
icdeslides
 
Ireland 2015 more inclusive and productive Dublin 15 September
Ireland 2015 more inclusive and productive Dublin 15 SeptemberIreland 2015 more inclusive and productive Dublin 15 September
Ireland 2015 more inclusive and productive Dublin 15 September
OECD, Economics Department
 
Finlands challenges-for-growth-oecd-economic-survey-2016
Finlands challenges-for-growth-oecd-economic-survey-2016Finlands challenges-for-growth-oecd-economic-survey-2016
Finlands challenges-for-growth-oecd-economic-survey-2016
OECD, Economics Department
 
2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_alain de serres
2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_alain de serres2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_alain de serres
2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_alain de serres
OECD_Inclusivegrowth
 
Improving equity in Sweden
Improving equity in SwedenImproving equity in Sweden
Improving equity in Sweden
EduSkills OECD
 
OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures
OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected FiguresOECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures
OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures
OECD Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs
 

Similar to Leadership NZ - Rick Boven (20)

Governing Education in a Context of Economic Recession
Governing Education in a Context of Economic RecessionGoverning Education in a Context of Economic Recession
Governing Education in a Context of Economic Recession
 
Governing education in a context of economic recession
Governing education in a context of economic recessionGoverning education in a context of economic recession
Governing education in a context of economic recession
 
Governing education in a context of economic recession
Governing education in a context of economic recessionGoverning education in a context of economic recession
Governing education in a context of economic recession
 
Apresentação Ciro Vasquez | OIS 2011 | Painel: Cooperação internacional e ino...
Apresentação Ciro Vasquez | OIS 2011 | Painel: Cooperação internacional e ino...Apresentação Ciro Vasquez | OIS 2011 | Painel: Cooperação internacional e ino...
Apresentação Ciro Vasquez | OIS 2011 | Painel: Cooperação internacional e ino...
 
The Norwegian Competence Reform - Background, measures, results and lessons
The Norwegian Competence Reform - Background, measures, results and lessons The Norwegian Competence Reform - Background, measures, results and lessons
The Norwegian Competence Reform - Background, measures, results and lessons
 
OECD-main-findings-Sweden-2015-growth-and-skills
OECD-main-findings-Sweden-2015-growth-and-skillsOECD-main-findings-Sweden-2015-growth-and-skills
OECD-main-findings-Sweden-2015-growth-and-skills
 
Strengths and weaknesses of national systems of human capital development in ...
Strengths and weaknesses of national systems of human capital development in ...Strengths and weaknesses of national systems of human capital development in ...
Strengths and weaknesses of national systems of human capital development in ...
 
Economic Complexity Index Australia
Economic Complexity Index AustraliaEconomic Complexity Index Australia
Economic Complexity Index Australia
 
International Perspectives on High Growth Entrepreneurship
International Perspectives on High Growth EntrepreneurshipInternational Perspectives on High Growth Entrepreneurship
International Perspectives on High Growth Entrepreneurship
 
Onderwijs en jeugdwerkloosheid
Onderwijs en jeugdwerkloosheidOnderwijs en jeugdwerkloosheid
Onderwijs en jeugdwerkloosheid
 
Guardian 2010
Guardian 2010Guardian 2010
Guardian 2010
 
Roff - we are in the people business
Roff - we are in the people businessRoff - we are in the people business
Roff - we are in the people business
 
War For Talent In 2010 Mc Kinsey Fei2
War For Talent In 2010 Mc Kinsey Fei2War For Talent In 2010 Mc Kinsey Fei2
War For Talent In 2010 Mc Kinsey Fei2
 
Investing in youth Lithuania
Investing in youth   LithuaniaInvesting in youth   Lithuania
Investing in youth Lithuania
 
Keynote The Arkansas Distance Learning Association (ARDLA)
Keynote The Arkansas Distance Learning Association (ARDLA) Keynote The Arkansas Distance Learning Association (ARDLA)
Keynote The Arkansas Distance Learning Association (ARDLA)
 
Ireland 2015 more inclusive and productive Dublin 15 September
Ireland 2015 more inclusive and productive Dublin 15 SeptemberIreland 2015 more inclusive and productive Dublin 15 September
Ireland 2015 more inclusive and productive Dublin 15 September
 
Finlands challenges-for-growth-oecd-economic-survey-2016
Finlands challenges-for-growth-oecd-economic-survey-2016Finlands challenges-for-growth-oecd-economic-survey-2016
Finlands challenges-for-growth-oecd-economic-survey-2016
 
2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_alain de serres
2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_alain de serres2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_alain de serres
2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_alain de serres
 
Improving equity in Sweden
Improving equity in SwedenImproving equity in Sweden
Improving equity in Sweden
 
OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures
OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected FiguresOECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures
OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures
 

More from McGuinness Institute

Learning lessons from early adopters of Aotearoa New Zealand Climate Standard...
Learning lessons from early adopters of Aotearoa New Zealand Climate Standard...Learning lessons from early adopters of Aotearoa New Zealand Climate Standard...
Learning lessons from early adopters of Aotearoa New Zealand Climate Standard...
McGuinness Institute
 
Nation Dates (fifth edition) preview
Nation Dates (fifth edition) previewNation Dates (fifth edition) preview
Nation Dates (fifth edition) preview
McGuinness Institute
 
20231123 Foresight Tools Slideshare.pdf
20231123 Foresight Tools Slideshare.pdf20231123 Foresight Tools Slideshare.pdf
20231123 Foresight Tools Slideshare.pdf
McGuinness Institute
 
Exploring the role of aquaculture in our marine space
Exploring the role of aquaculture in our marine spaceExploring the role of aquaculture in our marine space
Exploring the role of aquaculture in our marine space
McGuinness Institute
 
Exploring the role of aquaculture in our marine space
Exploring the role of aquaculture in our marine spaceExploring the role of aquaculture in our marine space
Exploring the role of aquaculture in our marine space
McGuinness Institute
 
20230222 440pm BIG slideshow - Read-Only.pdf
20230222 440pm BIG slideshow  -  Read-Only.pdf20230222 440pm BIG slideshow  -  Read-Only.pdf
20230222 440pm BIG slideshow - Read-Only.pdf
McGuinness Institute
 
20221007 3pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL -plus 5.pdf
20221007 3pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL -plus 5.pdf20221007 3pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL -plus 5.pdf
20221007 3pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL -plus 5.pdf
McGuinness Institute
 
20220929 Futures thinking presentation 4pm.pdf
20220929 Futures thinking presentation 4pm.pdf20220929 Futures thinking presentation 4pm.pdf
20220929 Futures thinking presentation 4pm.pdf
McGuinness Institute
 
WP 2021:14 Slideshare .pdf
WP 2021:14 Slideshare .pdfWP 2021:14 Slideshare .pdf
WP 2021:14 Slideshare .pdf
McGuinness Institute
 
20220922 4pm West Coast Land slideshow1.pdf
20220922 4pm West Coast Land slideshow1.pdf20220922 4pm West Coast Land slideshow1.pdf
20220922 4pm West Coast Land slideshow1.pdf
McGuinness Institute
 
20220922 11am West Coast Land slideshow.pdf
20220922 11am West Coast Land slideshow.pdf20220922 11am West Coast Land slideshow.pdf
20220922 11am West Coast Land slideshow.pdf
McGuinness Institute
 
20220908 McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL V2.pdf
20220908 McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL V2.pdf20220908 McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL V2.pdf
20220908 McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL V2.pdf
McGuinness Institute
 
20220907 5pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL.pdf
20220907 5pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL.pdf20220907 5pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL.pdf
20220907 5pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL.pdf
McGuinness Institute
 
20220628 545pm GDS Handbook [FINAL] [print copy to WF].pdf
20220628 545pm GDS Handbook [FINAL]  [print copy to WF].pdf20220628 545pm GDS Handbook [FINAL]  [print copy to WF].pdf
20220628 545pm GDS Handbook [FINAL] [print copy to WF].pdf
McGuinness Institute
 
2021 Government Department Strategies Index Handbook – He Puna Rautaki
2021 Government Department Strategies Index Handbook – He Puna Rautaki2021 Government Department Strategies Index Handbook – He Puna Rautaki
2021 Government Department Strategies Index Handbook – He Puna Rautaki
McGuinness Institute
 
20211210 12.55pm akl council governance group (final)
20211210 12.55pm akl council governance group (final)20211210 12.55pm akl council governance group (final)
20211210 12.55pm akl council governance group (final)
McGuinness Institute
 
20211122 future local govt presentation [18 nov]
20211122 future local govt presentation [18 nov]20211122 future local govt presentation [18 nov]
20211122 future local govt presentation [18 nov]
McGuinness Institute
 
20211022 nzks presentation
20211022 nzks presentation20211022 nzks presentation
20211022 nzks presentation
McGuinness Institute
 
20211101 9am presented draft future of local govt review presentation
20211101 9am presented draft future of local govt review presentation20211101 9am presented draft future of local govt review presentation
20211101 9am presented draft future of local govt review presentation
McGuinness Institute
 
20211029 5pm presented draft future of local govt review presentation
20211029 5pm presented draft future of local govt review presentation20211029 5pm presented draft future of local govt review presentation
20211029 5pm presented draft future of local govt review presentation
McGuinness Institute
 

More from McGuinness Institute (20)

Learning lessons from early adopters of Aotearoa New Zealand Climate Standard...
Learning lessons from early adopters of Aotearoa New Zealand Climate Standard...Learning lessons from early adopters of Aotearoa New Zealand Climate Standard...
Learning lessons from early adopters of Aotearoa New Zealand Climate Standard...
 
Nation Dates (fifth edition) preview
Nation Dates (fifth edition) previewNation Dates (fifth edition) preview
Nation Dates (fifth edition) preview
 
20231123 Foresight Tools Slideshare.pdf
20231123 Foresight Tools Slideshare.pdf20231123 Foresight Tools Slideshare.pdf
20231123 Foresight Tools Slideshare.pdf
 
Exploring the role of aquaculture in our marine space
Exploring the role of aquaculture in our marine spaceExploring the role of aquaculture in our marine space
Exploring the role of aquaculture in our marine space
 
Exploring the role of aquaculture in our marine space
Exploring the role of aquaculture in our marine spaceExploring the role of aquaculture in our marine space
Exploring the role of aquaculture in our marine space
 
20230222 440pm BIG slideshow - Read-Only.pdf
20230222 440pm BIG slideshow  -  Read-Only.pdf20230222 440pm BIG slideshow  -  Read-Only.pdf
20230222 440pm BIG slideshow - Read-Only.pdf
 
20221007 3pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL -plus 5.pdf
20221007 3pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL -plus 5.pdf20221007 3pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL -plus 5.pdf
20221007 3pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL -plus 5.pdf
 
20220929 Futures thinking presentation 4pm.pdf
20220929 Futures thinking presentation 4pm.pdf20220929 Futures thinking presentation 4pm.pdf
20220929 Futures thinking presentation 4pm.pdf
 
WP 2021:14 Slideshare .pdf
WP 2021:14 Slideshare .pdfWP 2021:14 Slideshare .pdf
WP 2021:14 Slideshare .pdf
 
20220922 4pm West Coast Land slideshow1.pdf
20220922 4pm West Coast Land slideshow1.pdf20220922 4pm West Coast Land slideshow1.pdf
20220922 4pm West Coast Land slideshow1.pdf
 
20220922 11am West Coast Land slideshow.pdf
20220922 11am West Coast Land slideshow.pdf20220922 11am West Coast Land slideshow.pdf
20220922 11am West Coast Land slideshow.pdf
 
20220908 McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL V2.pdf
20220908 McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL V2.pdf20220908 McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL V2.pdf
20220908 McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL V2.pdf
 
20220907 5pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL.pdf
20220907 5pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL.pdf20220907 5pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL.pdf
20220907 5pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL.pdf
 
20220628 545pm GDS Handbook [FINAL] [print copy to WF].pdf
20220628 545pm GDS Handbook [FINAL]  [print copy to WF].pdf20220628 545pm GDS Handbook [FINAL]  [print copy to WF].pdf
20220628 545pm GDS Handbook [FINAL] [print copy to WF].pdf
 
2021 Government Department Strategies Index Handbook – He Puna Rautaki
2021 Government Department Strategies Index Handbook – He Puna Rautaki2021 Government Department Strategies Index Handbook – He Puna Rautaki
2021 Government Department Strategies Index Handbook – He Puna Rautaki
 
20211210 12.55pm akl council governance group (final)
20211210 12.55pm akl council governance group (final)20211210 12.55pm akl council governance group (final)
20211210 12.55pm akl council governance group (final)
 
20211122 future local govt presentation [18 nov]
20211122 future local govt presentation [18 nov]20211122 future local govt presentation [18 nov]
20211122 future local govt presentation [18 nov]
 
20211022 nzks presentation
20211022 nzks presentation20211022 nzks presentation
20211022 nzks presentation
 
20211101 9am presented draft future of local govt review presentation
20211101 9am presented draft future of local govt review presentation20211101 9am presented draft future of local govt review presentation
20211101 9am presented draft future of local govt review presentation
 
20211029 5pm presented draft future of local govt review presentation
20211029 5pm presented draft future of local govt review presentation20211029 5pm presented draft future of local govt review presentation
20211029 5pm presented draft future of local govt review presentation
 

Recently uploaded

Training my puppy and implementation in this story
Training my puppy and implementation in this storyTraining my puppy and implementation in this story
Training my puppy and implementation in this story
WilliamRodrigues148
 
Building Your Employer Brand with Social Media
Building Your Employer Brand with Social MediaBuilding Your Employer Brand with Social Media
Building Your Employer Brand with Social Media
LuanWise
 
Understanding User Needs and Satisfying Them
Understanding User Needs and Satisfying ThemUnderstanding User Needs and Satisfying Them
Understanding User Needs and Satisfying Them
Aggregage
 
Best Forex Brokers Comparison in INDIA 2024
Best Forex Brokers Comparison in INDIA 2024Best Forex Brokers Comparison in INDIA 2024
Best Forex Brokers Comparison in INDIA 2024
Top Forex Brokers Review
 
Best practices for project execution and delivery
Best practices for project execution and deliveryBest practices for project execution and delivery
Best practices for project execution and delivery
CLIVE MINCHIN
 
ikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdf
ikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdfikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdf
ikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdf
agatadrynko
 
Zodiac Signs and Food Preferences_ What Your Sign Says About Your Taste
Zodiac Signs and Food Preferences_ What Your Sign Says About Your TasteZodiac Signs and Food Preferences_ What Your Sign Says About Your Taste
Zodiac Signs and Food Preferences_ What Your Sign Says About Your Taste
my Pandit
 
Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challenges
Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challengesEvent Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challenges
Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challenges
Holger Mueller
 
Taurus Zodiac Sign: Unveiling the Traits, Dates, and Horoscope Insights of th...
Taurus Zodiac Sign: Unveiling the Traits, Dates, and Horoscope Insights of th...Taurus Zodiac Sign: Unveiling the Traits, Dates, and Horoscope Insights of th...
Taurus Zodiac Sign: Unveiling the Traits, Dates, and Horoscope Insights of th...
my Pandit
 
Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Satta Matka
Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Satta MatkaDpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Satta Matka
Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Satta Matka
➒➌➎➏➑➐➋➑➐➐Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matka Kalyan Chart Indian Matka
 
Anny Serafina Love - Letter of Recommendation by Kellen Harkins, MS.
Anny Serafina Love - Letter of Recommendation by Kellen Harkins, MS.Anny Serafina Love - Letter of Recommendation by Kellen Harkins, MS.
Anny Serafina Love - Letter of Recommendation by Kellen Harkins, MS.
AnnySerafinaLove
 
Evgen Osmak: Methods of key project parameters estimation: from the shaman-in...
Evgen Osmak: Methods of key project parameters estimation: from the shaman-in...Evgen Osmak: Methods of key project parameters estimation: from the shaman-in...
Evgen Osmak: Methods of key project parameters estimation: from the shaman-in...
Lviv Startup Club
 
Top mailing list providers in the USA.pptx
Top mailing list providers in the USA.pptxTop mailing list providers in the USA.pptx
Top mailing list providers in the USA.pptx
JeremyPeirce1
 
The Influence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business Perfor...
The Influence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business Perfor...The Influence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business Perfor...
The Influence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business Perfor...
Adam Smith
 
3 Simple Steps To Buy Verified Payoneer Account In 2024
3 Simple Steps To Buy Verified Payoneer Account In 20243 Simple Steps To Buy Verified Payoneer Account In 2024
3 Simple Steps To Buy Verified Payoneer Account In 2024
SEOSMMEARTH
 
ModelingMarketingStrategiesMKS.CollumbiaUniversitypdf
ModelingMarketingStrategiesMKS.CollumbiaUniversitypdfModelingMarketingStrategiesMKS.CollumbiaUniversitypdf
ModelingMarketingStrategiesMKS.CollumbiaUniversitypdf
fisherameliaisabella
 
In the Adani-Hindenburg case, what is SEBI investigating.pptx
In the Adani-Hindenburg case, what is SEBI investigating.pptxIn the Adani-Hindenburg case, what is SEBI investigating.pptx
In the Adani-Hindenburg case, what is SEBI investigating.pptx
Adani case
 
2024-6-01-IMPACTSilver-Corp-Presentation.pdf
2024-6-01-IMPACTSilver-Corp-Presentation.pdf2024-6-01-IMPACTSilver-Corp-Presentation.pdf
2024-6-01-IMPACTSilver-Corp-Presentation.pdf
hartfordclub1
 
The 10 Most Influential Leaders Guiding Corporate Evolution, 2024.pdf
The 10 Most Influential Leaders Guiding Corporate Evolution, 2024.pdfThe 10 Most Influential Leaders Guiding Corporate Evolution, 2024.pdf
The 10 Most Influential Leaders Guiding Corporate Evolution, 2024.pdf
thesiliconleaders
 
Organizational Change Leadership Agile Tour Geneve 2024
Organizational Change Leadership Agile Tour Geneve 2024Organizational Change Leadership Agile Tour Geneve 2024
Organizational Change Leadership Agile Tour Geneve 2024
Kirill Klimov
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Training my puppy and implementation in this story
Training my puppy and implementation in this storyTraining my puppy and implementation in this story
Training my puppy and implementation in this story
 
Building Your Employer Brand with Social Media
Building Your Employer Brand with Social MediaBuilding Your Employer Brand with Social Media
Building Your Employer Brand with Social Media
 
Understanding User Needs and Satisfying Them
Understanding User Needs and Satisfying ThemUnderstanding User Needs and Satisfying Them
Understanding User Needs and Satisfying Them
 
Best Forex Brokers Comparison in INDIA 2024
Best Forex Brokers Comparison in INDIA 2024Best Forex Brokers Comparison in INDIA 2024
Best Forex Brokers Comparison in INDIA 2024
 
Best practices for project execution and delivery
Best practices for project execution and deliveryBest practices for project execution and delivery
Best practices for project execution and delivery
 
ikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdf
ikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdfikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdf
ikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdf
 
Zodiac Signs and Food Preferences_ What Your Sign Says About Your Taste
Zodiac Signs and Food Preferences_ What Your Sign Says About Your TasteZodiac Signs and Food Preferences_ What Your Sign Says About Your Taste
Zodiac Signs and Food Preferences_ What Your Sign Says About Your Taste
 
Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challenges
Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challengesEvent Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challenges
Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challenges
 
Taurus Zodiac Sign: Unveiling the Traits, Dates, and Horoscope Insights of th...
Taurus Zodiac Sign: Unveiling the Traits, Dates, and Horoscope Insights of th...Taurus Zodiac Sign: Unveiling the Traits, Dates, and Horoscope Insights of th...
Taurus Zodiac Sign: Unveiling the Traits, Dates, and Horoscope Insights of th...
 
Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Satta Matka
Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Satta MatkaDpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Satta Matka
Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Satta Matka
 
Anny Serafina Love - Letter of Recommendation by Kellen Harkins, MS.
Anny Serafina Love - Letter of Recommendation by Kellen Harkins, MS.Anny Serafina Love - Letter of Recommendation by Kellen Harkins, MS.
Anny Serafina Love - Letter of Recommendation by Kellen Harkins, MS.
 
Evgen Osmak: Methods of key project parameters estimation: from the shaman-in...
Evgen Osmak: Methods of key project parameters estimation: from the shaman-in...Evgen Osmak: Methods of key project parameters estimation: from the shaman-in...
Evgen Osmak: Methods of key project parameters estimation: from the shaman-in...
 
Top mailing list providers in the USA.pptx
Top mailing list providers in the USA.pptxTop mailing list providers in the USA.pptx
Top mailing list providers in the USA.pptx
 
The Influence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business Perfor...
The Influence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business Perfor...The Influence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business Perfor...
The Influence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business Perfor...
 
3 Simple Steps To Buy Verified Payoneer Account In 2024
3 Simple Steps To Buy Verified Payoneer Account In 20243 Simple Steps To Buy Verified Payoneer Account In 2024
3 Simple Steps To Buy Verified Payoneer Account In 2024
 
ModelingMarketingStrategiesMKS.CollumbiaUniversitypdf
ModelingMarketingStrategiesMKS.CollumbiaUniversitypdfModelingMarketingStrategiesMKS.CollumbiaUniversitypdf
ModelingMarketingStrategiesMKS.CollumbiaUniversitypdf
 
In the Adani-Hindenburg case, what is SEBI investigating.pptx
In the Adani-Hindenburg case, what is SEBI investigating.pptxIn the Adani-Hindenburg case, what is SEBI investigating.pptx
In the Adani-Hindenburg case, what is SEBI investigating.pptx
 
2024-6-01-IMPACTSilver-Corp-Presentation.pdf
2024-6-01-IMPACTSilver-Corp-Presentation.pdf2024-6-01-IMPACTSilver-Corp-Presentation.pdf
2024-6-01-IMPACTSilver-Corp-Presentation.pdf
 
The 10 Most Influential Leaders Guiding Corporate Evolution, 2024.pdf
The 10 Most Influential Leaders Guiding Corporate Evolution, 2024.pdfThe 10 Most Influential Leaders Guiding Corporate Evolution, 2024.pdf
The 10 Most Influential Leaders Guiding Corporate Evolution, 2024.pdf
 
Organizational Change Leadership Agile Tour Geneve 2024
Organizational Change Leadership Agile Tour Geneve 2024Organizational Change Leadership Agile Tour Geneve 2024
Organizational Change Leadership Agile Tour Geneve 2024
 

Leadership NZ - Rick Boven

  • 1. Navigation 101 Presentation to the Leadership New Zealand Future Thinking Workshop Rick Boven 28 October 2011 www.nzinstitute.org www.nzahead.org
  • 2. Economic Setting direction Social Leadership Aligning Environmental Motivating 2
  • 3. LOW PRODUCTIVITY EXPORT SECTORS Size of bubble reflects share of total workers 3% 2% Agriculture, forestry, fishing & mining 1% Compound annual growth Manufacturing rate in output, Tourism 2000-2009 0% -1% NZ average OECD $60 Australia $71 $49 -2% 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Estimated 2009 output per hour worked, 2010 NZ$ Note: Data includes export and domestic. Sources: The Conference Board (2011) Total Economy Database. OECD datasets: Employment; Hours worked. Statistics New Zealand: Tourism Satellite Account; Quarterly Employment Survey; Gross Domestic Product. 3
  • 4. NEW ZEALAND’S ECONOMIC TRANSITION International markets TARGET STATE FOCUS production Domestic CURRENT STATE Commodity Differentiated goods goods and services EFFORT
  • 5. MANY OPPORTUNITIES TO GROW HIGH VALUE DIFFERENTIATED EXPORTS Value-added food businesses that are anchored here Niche manufacturing, including selected clean-tech, where a small exporter can be a world leader, avoiding scale disadvantage ICT, where distance and scale are less important barriers to success • Lifting capability in these industries helps domestic productivity too Services sectors where world class technology can be acquired and NZ labour costs are relatively low • Successes in engineering, education, financial, medical etc. • Competitive advantage can be increased by legal innovation TOP 100 INTERNATIONALLY ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY BUSINESSES EXPORT AROUND $5b pa WITH VERY HIGH PRODUCTIVITY 5
  • 6. PLUGGING THE GAP 6 Image courtesy of Lee ter Wal Design
  • 7. TALENT AND CAPITAL VIRTUOUS CIRCLE 7
  • 8. SUMMARY OF NEW ZEALAND YOUTH DISADVANTAGE 8
  • 9. PERCENT AT EACH PROFICIENCY LEVEL ACROSS READING, MATHEMATICS AND SCIENCE, 2009 30 25 20 15 10 5 New Zealand OECD average 0 Below Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 1 (Highest) Source: OECD (2010). 9
  • 10. MEAN PISA RESULTS ACROSS READING, MATHEMATICS AND SCIENCE BY ETHNICITY 560 2000 03 06 09 540 520 500 480 460 440 420 400 Pacific peoples Māori Asian Pākehā/European Source: Education Counts (2000, 2003, 2006, 2009). 10
  • 11. YOUTH AGED 15-24 AS PERCENT OF TOTAL UNEMPLOYED, 2009 50 45 40 35 30 OECD average 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: OECD (2010). 11
  • 12. SHARE OF LABOUR FORCE COMPARED TO SHARE OF UNEMPLOYED, AGED 15-19, 2010 30 New Zealand Australia 20 UK Sweden Netherlands Share of Denmark unemployed, % Canada Finland Chile Austria 10 USA Turkey Israel Switzerland Italy Ireland Luxembourg Germany Japan Hungary 0 0 10 20 30 Share of labour force, % Source: OECD (2011). 12
  • 13. VICIOUS CYCLE Poor Many Serious economic social issues disadvantaged outcomes 5 year olds Many Disengaged unemployed students Unsuccessful Leaving school school to work early with low transition qualifications 13
  • 14. TWO PROPOSALS TO REDUCE YOUTH DISADVANTAGE Accelerate roll-out Improve the of e-learning school-to-work to low decile schools transition 14
  • 15. E-LEARNING DELIVERS ENGAGEMENT, BETTER LEARNING AND LOWER UNEMPLOYMENT Staying at Engagement school E-learning Less youth unemployment Better Better learning qualifications 15
  • 16. VALUE ADDED SNAPSHOT FOR READING AT PT. ENGLAND SCHOOL 9 8 7 6 2009 Stanine 2008 2010 NZ average 5 2007 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 School year Source: Pt. England School (2010). 16
  • 17. CO2 CONCENTRATION IN ATMOSPHERE, JULY 1990-2011, PPM 400 390 380 370 360 350 340 330 Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2011) Atmospheric CO2. 17
  • 18. AVERAGE OF COMMODITY PRICES, 2000 = 100 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Note: Commodities include aluminium, copper, crude petroleum, gold, iron ore, maize, rice, silver and wheat. Source: The World Bank (2011) Commodity Price Data. 18
  • 19. THE COBB-DOUGLAS PRODUCTION FUNCTION Output = TQ Lα Kβ TQ represents the effectiveness of the technology of production L and K represent the amounts of input of labour and capital respectively The parameters α and β indicate how much the output changes with changes in the inputs 19
  • 20. EVERYTHING WE FOCUS ON MEANS WE MISS SOMETHING ELSE 20
  • 21. PARADIGM CONFLICT Economic – 20th Century thinking Environmental – 21st Century thinking Economy is small relative to environment Economy is large relative to environment With limited exceptions, resources can Resource and waste sink be taken from the environment and constraints, and accumulated wastes can be released to the environmental damage threaten output environment without adverse growth and human well-being consequences Environmental issues resolved by Environmental threats increasing and substitutes, technologies and market responses are insufficient instruments The future will be an extension of the The future will be different from the past past Societal objective should be to maximise Societal objective should be to avoid risk GDP 21
  • 22. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? Commodity prices will continue to increase Countries will manage supply chain risks and become more self- sufficient Globalisation may slow or even reverse Societal management will become more complex and difficult Power may be more centralised initially and fragmentation may develop later 22
  • 23. IMPLICATIONS FOR NEW ZEALAND Increasing prices for commodity exports Increasing attractiveness to migrants and investors as a relatively safe haven Strategy to grow exports of high value goods and services Investment in innovation and skills New performance metrics to emphasise the quality and effects of economic growth Risk management will become a more important priority 23
  • 24. WHEN GOVERNMENTS FAIL, WHY DO THEY FAIL? “In the first stage, mental standstill fixes the principles and boundaries governing a political problem. In the second stage, when dissonances and failing function begin to appear, the initial principles rigidify. This is a period when, if wisdom were operative, re-examination and rethinking and a change of course are possible, but they are as rare as rubies in a backyard. Rigidifying leads to increase of investment and the need to protect egos; policy formed on error multiplies, never retreats. The greater the investment and the more involved in it the sponsor’s ego, the more unacceptable is disengagement. In the third stage, pursuit of failure enlarges the damages until it causes the fall of Troy, the defection from the Papacy, the loss of a trans-Atlantic empire, the classic humiliation in Vietnam. ... Persistence in error is the problem.” - Barbara Tuchman The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam (1984) 24

Editor's Notes

  1. Notes for Rick: Step change required in NZ’s performance Strategy = reallocation -> goal
  2. So in summary what do we find. Apart from education we compare poorly with other OECD countries on average and this is particularly evident among Māori and Pacific youth.
  3. Education though appears to be an area where at age 15, our youth perform well compared to others in the OECD on the Programme for International Student Assessment or PISA. We have more students performing at the higher levels on average, and do not have a ‘long tail’ of underachievers. But if we look into the results in more detail.
  4. What we find is that educational disadvantage is concentrated in Māori and Pacific ethnic groups, which perform at “fair” levels only. And these differences, compared to Asian and Pakeha New Zealanders, have persisted for many years.
  5. This figure shows that 45% of New Zealand’s total unemployed are youth, the highest proportion among OECD countries in 2009. However when we break this down, we found that New Zealand’s 20-24 year olds have a share close to the OECD average, but for 15-19 year olds the position is very different.
  6. Here we plotted the share of the labour force against the share of unemployed for OECD countries for 15-19 year olds, and this reveals that New Zealand is an outlier.We have a greater proportion of our youth in the labour force than many other countries at 7% but they represent 27% of those who are unemployed. In other words our youth are shouldering a more significant burden of unemployment than those in other countries.Other countries are shielding their young people by keeping them in education and training until they are much older.
  7. The two proposals our paper identified appear to be the most important and accessible opportunities to materially improve outcomes for disadvantaged youth in New Zealand.I will take each of these in turn.
  8. That improved learning delivers student engagement, and there are substantive issues with this for some of our youth.By age 16, an estimated 36% of students are reported to be usually or always bored and 29% rarely or only occasionally enjoy learning, and one quarter want to leave school as soon as they can, or already have (Wylie, 2009, p.2).It is much better to keep students engaged that to try to re-engage them. Improved engagement leads to better learning, to staying at school longer and for many obtaining better qualifications. This enables youth to compete more successfully for jobs reducing levels of unemployment.E-learning is a powerful tool for this and we have seen it work.
  9. Pt. England School in Glen Innes is a decile 1 school with a 60% of its students Pacific and 32% Māori. It has used e-learning techniques for some years with good results...lifting the low average performance of 5 year old entrants, where 90% of 5 year olds throughout the country performed better, to the position where in Year 7 (age 12), the class average was above the NZ average for reading.Manaia View School in Whangarei is also a decile one school with 94% of its students Māori. In 2010 89% of its year 7 and 8 students performed at or above the level expected for their age in reading and 71% in writing. The corresponding figures for 2008 were 58% and 32% respectively.So what needs to be done...