The document discusses two models of decision making: the traditional analytic model and the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model. The RPD model asserts that decision makers draw on experience to recognize situations and respond with appropriate courses of action. While the analytic model relies on comparing weighted options, the RPD model focuses on rapid situation assessment and analogy. Both models are useful and complementary. Emerging technologies are merging the levels of war and allowing both decision making approaches to be used at different levels, from strategic to tactical. This has implications for training commanders to use both models and for designing flexible decision support systems.
The document discusses tactics and the levels of war. It defines tactics as the employment of units in combat through ordered arrangement and maneuver. The tactical level of war involves planning and executing battles and engagements to accomplish objectives assigned to tactical units. It also discusses the science and art of tactics. The science involves measurable military capabilities and techniques, while the art requires creative application of tools and decision making under uncertainty while considering the human dimension of combat. Full spectrum operations require simultaneous combinations of offensive, defensive, and stability operations.
The document discusses tactics and the levels of war. It defines tactics as the employment of units in combat through ordered arrangement and maneuver. The tactical level of war involves planning and executing battles and engagements to accomplish objectives assigned to tactical units. It also discusses the science and art of tactics. The science involves measurable military capabilities and techniques, while the art requires creative application of tools and decision making under uncertainty while considering the human dimension of combat. Full spectrum operations require simultaneous combinations of offensive, defensive, and stability operations.
1) This document outlines an agenda for a workshop on programmatic risk management that covers topics such as risk management principles, basic statistics, Monte Carlo simulation theory, using Microsoft Project and Risk+ software, risk ranking, and building a credible schedule.
2) It discusses five key principles of managing programmatic risk: having a strategy rather than relying on hope, understanding that single point estimates are inaccurate without variance data, integrating cost, time and technical performance, using a risk management process and model rather than "driving in the dark," and ensuring effective risk communication.
3) The mechanics section describes how to set up a Risk+ simulation integrated with
Many people claim that strategy is dead - overcome by the conditions of change and uncertainty. They prefer agility and quick response. But the obituary for strategy is premature - and is based on a series of false assumptions about strategy.
We outline how strategy is both necessary and valuable in conditions of uncertainty and change.
NASA uses two complementary processes for risk management: risk-informed decision making (RIDM) and continuous risk management (CRM). RIDM emphasizes using risk analysis to make risk-informed decisions across dimensions like safety, cost, and schedule. CRM manages risks associated with implementation and uses risk statements to document risks across multiple dimensions. Current risk analysis methods often fail to provide a complete risk picture by only considering risks one dimension at a time. MRisk addresses this by analyzing risks across all dimensions simultaneously using anchor points and Mahalanobis distance, providing a more objective and accurate assessment of total project risk.
This document outlines the agenda for a presentation on risk-informed decision making (RIDM). The presentation will cover:
1. The inherent riskiness of current uncertain times and the need to evolve risk management approaches to remain relevant.
2. An explanation of what RIDM is and why it is important now, given that continuous risk management (CRM) is already practiced.
3. Examples of when and why to use RIDM in addition to discussing the actual steps involved in conducting RIDM.
The presentation aims to demonstrate how RIDM can help risk management practices evolve to address a more dynamic environment with changing mission objectives and resources. RIDM is presented as a complement to
1. The document discusses the nature of uncertainties facing firms in strategic decision making, including Knightian uncertainty about unknown probabilities versus risk with known probabilities.
2. It describes frameworks for conceptualizing uncertainty, such as Courtney's four levels ranging from a clear future to true ambiguity. Traditional strategic approaches are less effective under higher uncertainty levels.
3. Firms can cope with uncertainty by developing a strategic intent, using an opportunities approach, employing a portfolio of actions like big bets and options, creating simple rules, or following a semicoherent strategic direction with continuous change.
1) Operational risk appetite is a subject of debate as it is difficult to reduce to a single monetary value given its nature is affected by management culture and external factors.
2) A firm's risk appetite should be approved by the board and reflect an acceptable trade-off between risk and returns, commonly defined as the amount of risk a firm is willing to take for a given risk-reward ratio.
3) Expressing operational risk appetite can start qualitatively through a firm's risk and control assessment likelihood and impact scales, and then develop more quantitatively over time through indicators and modeling.
The document discusses tactics and the levels of war. It defines tactics as the employment of units in combat through ordered arrangement and maneuver. The tactical level of war involves planning and executing battles and engagements to accomplish objectives assigned to tactical units. It also discusses the science and art of tactics. The science involves measurable military capabilities and techniques, while the art requires creative application of tools and decision making under uncertainty while considering the human dimension of combat. Full spectrum operations require simultaneous combinations of offensive, defensive, and stability operations.
The document discusses tactics and the levels of war. It defines tactics as the employment of units in combat through ordered arrangement and maneuver. The tactical level of war involves planning and executing battles and engagements to accomplish objectives assigned to tactical units. It also discusses the science and art of tactics. The science involves measurable military capabilities and techniques, while the art requires creative application of tools and decision making under uncertainty while considering the human dimension of combat. Full spectrum operations require simultaneous combinations of offensive, defensive, and stability operations.
1) This document outlines an agenda for a workshop on programmatic risk management that covers topics such as risk management principles, basic statistics, Monte Carlo simulation theory, using Microsoft Project and Risk+ software, risk ranking, and building a credible schedule.
2) It discusses five key principles of managing programmatic risk: having a strategy rather than relying on hope, understanding that single point estimates are inaccurate without variance data, integrating cost, time and technical performance, using a risk management process and model rather than "driving in the dark," and ensuring effective risk communication.
3) The mechanics section describes how to set up a Risk+ simulation integrated with
Many people claim that strategy is dead - overcome by the conditions of change and uncertainty. They prefer agility and quick response. But the obituary for strategy is premature - and is based on a series of false assumptions about strategy.
We outline how strategy is both necessary and valuable in conditions of uncertainty and change.
NASA uses two complementary processes for risk management: risk-informed decision making (RIDM) and continuous risk management (CRM). RIDM emphasizes using risk analysis to make risk-informed decisions across dimensions like safety, cost, and schedule. CRM manages risks associated with implementation and uses risk statements to document risks across multiple dimensions. Current risk analysis methods often fail to provide a complete risk picture by only considering risks one dimension at a time. MRisk addresses this by analyzing risks across all dimensions simultaneously using anchor points and Mahalanobis distance, providing a more objective and accurate assessment of total project risk.
This document outlines the agenda for a presentation on risk-informed decision making (RIDM). The presentation will cover:
1. The inherent riskiness of current uncertain times and the need to evolve risk management approaches to remain relevant.
2. An explanation of what RIDM is and why it is important now, given that continuous risk management (CRM) is already practiced.
3. Examples of when and why to use RIDM in addition to discussing the actual steps involved in conducting RIDM.
The presentation aims to demonstrate how RIDM can help risk management practices evolve to address a more dynamic environment with changing mission objectives and resources. RIDM is presented as a complement to
1. The document discusses the nature of uncertainties facing firms in strategic decision making, including Knightian uncertainty about unknown probabilities versus risk with known probabilities.
2. It describes frameworks for conceptualizing uncertainty, such as Courtney's four levels ranging from a clear future to true ambiguity. Traditional strategic approaches are less effective under higher uncertainty levels.
3. Firms can cope with uncertainty by developing a strategic intent, using an opportunities approach, employing a portfolio of actions like big bets and options, creating simple rules, or following a semicoherent strategic direction with continuous change.
1) Operational risk appetite is a subject of debate as it is difficult to reduce to a single monetary value given its nature is affected by management culture and external factors.
2) A firm's risk appetite should be approved by the board and reflect an acceptable trade-off between risk and returns, commonly defined as the amount of risk a firm is willing to take for a given risk-reward ratio.
3) Expressing operational risk appetite can start qualitatively through a firm's risk and control assessment likelihood and impact scales, and then develop more quantitatively over time through indicators and modeling.
The document discusses tactics and the levels of war. It defines tactics as the employment of units in combat through ordered arrangement and maneuver. The tactical level of war involves planning and executing battles and engagements to accomplish objectives assigned to tactical units. It also discusses the science and art of tactics. The science involves measurable military capabilities and techniques, while the art requires creative application of tools and decision making under uncertainty while considering the human dimension of combat. Full spectrum operations require simultaneous combinations of offensive, defensive, and stability operations.
المجموعات السلفية المقاتلة في سوريا بين "الوطنية" و"العالمية"BookStoreLib
ورقة تحليلية: المجموعات السلفية المقاتلة في سوريا بين "الوطنية" و"العالمية"
شكّل العنف المشحون برمزية طائفية تجاه الثوار والاضطرار إلى انتهاج العمل العسكري حيال بطش الآلة الأمنية الأسدية، مناخاً جديداً داخل البلاد أخذ يعزز الظروف التي من خلالها عثرت القوى السلفية المقاتلة على موطئ قدم لها داخل المشهد اليومي للثورة.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
This document provides an introduction and preface to a conference on countering terrorism held on February 28, 2002 at the FBI Academy in Quantico, Virginia. Over 70 law enforcement personnel and academics met to discuss scenarios related to counterterrorism challenges. Participants dispersed into small groups to discuss the scenarios and questions developed beforehand. The goal was to integrate practical experience and theoretical perspectives on issues like intelligence analysis, risk communication, and building ties between law enforcement and Muslim communities. The conference aimed to apply expertise to scenarios and raise additional questions to further address counterterrorism challenges.
The document summarizes the military decision-making process (MDMP). It consists of 7 steps: 1) Receipt of Mission, 2) Mission Analysis, 3) Course of Action Development, 4) Course of Action Analysis, 5) Course of Action Comparison, 6) Course of Action Approval, and 7) Orders Production. Mission analysis is a crucial step that allows commanders to define the tactical problem and determine feasible solutions through 17 sub-steps. The goal of the MDMP is to help commanders and staffs make logical decisions by thoroughly examining situations.
The document describes the process of effects based operations (EBO) in 11 steps: 1) define future scenarios, 2) identify drivers and conditions, 3) analyze driver/condition relationships, 4) develop scenarios, 5) define end states, 6) create effects, 7) identify means, 8) determine capabilities, 9) assess resources, 10) generate reports, 11) rate effect-means pairs. The goal is to identify actions that can achieve a desired strategic outcome through military and non-military means by considering direct, indirect and cascading effects.
Decision support systems – current state and development trendsElena Susnea
Susnea E. (2013). Decision support systems – current state and development trends, " Bulletin of the'Carol I'National Defence University", Jan-Mar2013, Iss. 1 (pp.121-127).
The basis of decision making for software development started in the 1980's with the application of classical discounted cash flow analysis.
This paper speaks to the extension of those principles to the development of Agile software
A Planner For The Control Of Problem-Solving SystemsCourtney Esco
This document summarizes research on using planning to control problem-solving systems like blackboard architectures. The researchers developed a planning-based control scheme for the RESUN interpretation system. Their planner uses context-specific control knowledge encoded as plans and focusing heuristics. It addresses issues with planning in dynamic domains through mechanisms like interleaved planning and execution, refocusing to shift attention, and allowing plans to gather information. Their experience confirms the planner supports encoding sophisticated control strategies while maintaining efficiency.
Persistent Surveillance is more than a stare from space or Full Motion Video. Added to a COmmon Operating Picture, it can transform how we operate in the 21st Century.
This chapter introduces operations research as a quantitative approach to decision making. It discusses the history of operations research emerging during World War II to help manage scarce resources. Operations research is defined as applying scientific methods to complex problems involving systems of people, machines, materials and money. The chapter outlines the nature, features, and significance of operations research in decision making. It also introduces modeling as used in operations research to analyze systems through representations that maintain essential elements.
This document discusses the targeting process used in military operations. It begins by explaining that targeting involves evaluating data from across the headquarters to identify and prosecute targets. Targeting can involve both lethal and non-lethal means of striking targets. The targeting process aims to develop, coordinate, integrate, and synchronize both lethal and non-lethal means to support the commander's intent. The targeting cycle consists of five main phases: decide, detect, track, deliver, and assess. The overall process aims to produce a complete target package to support maneuver forces.
The document outlines 10 guiding principles for designing computer-based decision support systems to assist human decision makers with complex problems. The principles emphasize partnership between humans and computers, with the system taking a distributed and open architecture. The system should provide tools rather than solutions, utilize high-level representations, embed knowledge, and decentralize decision making. A key principle is identifying conflicts rather than automatically resolving them. The goal is to design highly interactive systems that integrate planning and execution functions.
This document discusses how analytics and statistical concepts can be applied to project management principles. It provides examples of how probability distributions like normal, Poisson, and exponential can be used in areas like risk management, cost management, and schedule management. The document also presents two case studies showing how statistical analysis could help optimize a biofuel project in the Philippines and calculate costs for an HIV treatment project in Kenya. Overall, the document argues that incorporating statistical analytics can help projects execute optimally and manage uncertainty.
Making Analytics Actionable for Financial Institutions (Part II of III)Cognizant
To identify meaningful use cases for analytics-driven banking and financial services solutions, organizations need a thorough understanding of how customer interactions align with context and anticipate needs, while simplifying the decision-making process.
This document discusses the role of modelling in water resource systems planning and management. It begins by explaining how modelling provides a way to predict how proposed infrastructure designs or policies will impact water resource systems. It then discusses some of the challenges in modelling complex, real-world water systems which involve understanding many interconnected physical, ecological, social and political factors. The document concludes by arguing that while modelling is an important tool, it has limitations and model results alone do not replace the judgement of planners and managers.
This document discusses the role of modelling in water resource systems planning and management. It begins by explaining how modelling provides a way to predict how proposed infrastructure designs or policies will impact water resource systems. It then discusses some of the challenges in modelling complex, real-world water systems which involve understanding many interconnected physical, ecological, social and political factors. The document concludes by arguing that while modelling is an important tool, it has limitations and model results alone do not replace the judgement of planners and managers.
The document discusses supply chain management and organized retailing in India. It provides details about:
1) Supply chain management involving strategic and operational decisions related to location, production, inventory, and transportation to efficiently manage the flow of products.
2) The evolution of organized retailing in India, with traditional grocers transforming and modern retailers like Big Bazaar emerging.
3) How organized retailers like Big Bazaar are leveraging scale to source products at lower costs and pass on savings to consumers, which could fuel further demand.
Produced By:
United States Army
School of Advanced Military Studies
In Partnership With:
U.S. Army Research Institute for the
Behavioral and Social Sciences
Ft. Leavenworth, KS 66027-1361
POC: Dr. Heather Wolters
913-684-9795
[email protected]
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
The authors would like to thank instructors from the
School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS) and the
Command and General Staff School (CGSS), as well
as COL Grigsby (former Director of SAMS) and Dr.
Scott Gorman, who provided their knowledge and
expertise related to the instruction of Army Design
Methodology. The authors would like to also thank
all those who participated in the interviews and
shared their experiences and valuable perspectives
related to Design.
Acknowledgement
2
Introduction ........................................... 4
Army Design Methodology:
What and Why .................................... 4
Views about Design ............................ 5
This Resource ..................................... 8
Section 1:
Practical Challenges in
Implementing ADM ............................... 11
Preparing for ADM
Recognizing When to Apply ADM ... 13
Determining Team Composition ..... 17
Determining Whether and How to
Structure the Activity ...................... 24
Determining the Level and Nature
of Commander Involvement ........... 28
Determining the
Resources Needed .......................... 34
Executing ADM
Introducing and Framing ADM ....... 38
Facilitating Discourse ..................... 42
Determining What to Include .......... 46
Capturing and Communicating
Key Insights .................................... 48
Table of ContentsTOC
1
B
F
A
D
H
C
I
G
E
INT
Section 2:
Examples from the Field ................. 52
Design During the
Sunni Awakening ..................... 53
Design over Dinner .................. 58
Mapping out the Mess.............. 60
Illumination in Vietnam ............ 66
Ongoing Design ....................... 68
Section 3:
Additional Resources ......................... 72
Appendix:
Organizational Barriers
to Implementing ADM ..................... 76
TOC
3
2
3
APP
2
1
4
3
5
All photographs used in this publication are in the
public domain and have been provided courtesy of the
U.S. Army or the U.S. Air Force.
INT
4
INTRODUCTION
Army Design Methodology:
What and Why
In today’s operational environments, the U.S.
Army is facing a range of problems and mission
sets that are arguably more varied and complex
than previously encountered. Forces face an
array of demands that encompass geo-political,
social, cultural, and military factors that interact in
unpredictable ways.
The inherent complexity of today’s operations has
underscored the need for the Army to expand
beyond its traditional approach to operat ...
The document discusses tactics and the levels of war. It defines tactics as the employment of units in combat through ordered arrangement and maneuver. The tactical level of war involves planning and executing battles and engagements to accomplish objectives assigned to tactical units. It also discusses the science and art of tactics. The science involves measurable military capabilities and techniques, while the art requires creative application of tools and decision making under uncertainty while considering the human dimension of combat. Full spectrum operations require simultaneous combinations of offensive, defensive, and stability operations.
المجموعات السلفية المقاتلة في سوريا بين "الوطنية" و"العالمية"BookStoreLib
ورقة تحليلية: المجموعات السلفية المقاتلة في سوريا بين "الوطنية" و"العالمية"
شكّل العنف المشحون برمزية طائفية تجاه الثوار والاضطرار إلى انتهاج العمل العسكري حيال بطش الآلة الأمنية الأسدية، مناخاً جديداً داخل البلاد أخذ يعزز الظروف التي من خلالها عثرت القوى السلفية المقاتلة على موطئ قدم لها داخل المشهد اليومي للثورة.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
This document provides an introduction and preface to a conference on countering terrorism held on February 28, 2002 at the FBI Academy in Quantico, Virginia. Over 70 law enforcement personnel and academics met to discuss scenarios related to counterterrorism challenges. Participants dispersed into small groups to discuss the scenarios and questions developed beforehand. The goal was to integrate practical experience and theoretical perspectives on issues like intelligence analysis, risk communication, and building ties between law enforcement and Muslim communities. The conference aimed to apply expertise to scenarios and raise additional questions to further address counterterrorism challenges.
The document summarizes the military decision-making process (MDMP). It consists of 7 steps: 1) Receipt of Mission, 2) Mission Analysis, 3) Course of Action Development, 4) Course of Action Analysis, 5) Course of Action Comparison, 6) Course of Action Approval, and 7) Orders Production. Mission analysis is a crucial step that allows commanders to define the tactical problem and determine feasible solutions through 17 sub-steps. The goal of the MDMP is to help commanders and staffs make logical decisions by thoroughly examining situations.
The document describes the process of effects based operations (EBO) in 11 steps: 1) define future scenarios, 2) identify drivers and conditions, 3) analyze driver/condition relationships, 4) develop scenarios, 5) define end states, 6) create effects, 7) identify means, 8) determine capabilities, 9) assess resources, 10) generate reports, 11) rate effect-means pairs. The goal is to identify actions that can achieve a desired strategic outcome through military and non-military means by considering direct, indirect and cascading effects.
Decision support systems – current state and development trendsElena Susnea
Susnea E. (2013). Decision support systems – current state and development trends, " Bulletin of the'Carol I'National Defence University", Jan-Mar2013, Iss. 1 (pp.121-127).
The basis of decision making for software development started in the 1980's with the application of classical discounted cash flow analysis.
This paper speaks to the extension of those principles to the development of Agile software
A Planner For The Control Of Problem-Solving SystemsCourtney Esco
This document summarizes research on using planning to control problem-solving systems like blackboard architectures. The researchers developed a planning-based control scheme for the RESUN interpretation system. Their planner uses context-specific control knowledge encoded as plans and focusing heuristics. It addresses issues with planning in dynamic domains through mechanisms like interleaved planning and execution, refocusing to shift attention, and allowing plans to gather information. Their experience confirms the planner supports encoding sophisticated control strategies while maintaining efficiency.
Persistent Surveillance is more than a stare from space or Full Motion Video. Added to a COmmon Operating Picture, it can transform how we operate in the 21st Century.
This chapter introduces operations research as a quantitative approach to decision making. It discusses the history of operations research emerging during World War II to help manage scarce resources. Operations research is defined as applying scientific methods to complex problems involving systems of people, machines, materials and money. The chapter outlines the nature, features, and significance of operations research in decision making. It also introduces modeling as used in operations research to analyze systems through representations that maintain essential elements.
This document discusses the targeting process used in military operations. It begins by explaining that targeting involves evaluating data from across the headquarters to identify and prosecute targets. Targeting can involve both lethal and non-lethal means of striking targets. The targeting process aims to develop, coordinate, integrate, and synchronize both lethal and non-lethal means to support the commander's intent. The targeting cycle consists of five main phases: decide, detect, track, deliver, and assess. The overall process aims to produce a complete target package to support maneuver forces.
The document outlines 10 guiding principles for designing computer-based decision support systems to assist human decision makers with complex problems. The principles emphasize partnership between humans and computers, with the system taking a distributed and open architecture. The system should provide tools rather than solutions, utilize high-level representations, embed knowledge, and decentralize decision making. A key principle is identifying conflicts rather than automatically resolving them. The goal is to design highly interactive systems that integrate planning and execution functions.
This document discusses how analytics and statistical concepts can be applied to project management principles. It provides examples of how probability distributions like normal, Poisson, and exponential can be used in areas like risk management, cost management, and schedule management. The document also presents two case studies showing how statistical analysis could help optimize a biofuel project in the Philippines and calculate costs for an HIV treatment project in Kenya. Overall, the document argues that incorporating statistical analytics can help projects execute optimally and manage uncertainty.
Making Analytics Actionable for Financial Institutions (Part II of III)Cognizant
To identify meaningful use cases for analytics-driven banking and financial services solutions, organizations need a thorough understanding of how customer interactions align with context and anticipate needs, while simplifying the decision-making process.
This document discusses the role of modelling in water resource systems planning and management. It begins by explaining how modelling provides a way to predict how proposed infrastructure designs or policies will impact water resource systems. It then discusses some of the challenges in modelling complex, real-world water systems which involve understanding many interconnected physical, ecological, social and political factors. The document concludes by arguing that while modelling is an important tool, it has limitations and model results alone do not replace the judgement of planners and managers.
This document discusses the role of modelling in water resource systems planning and management. It begins by explaining how modelling provides a way to predict how proposed infrastructure designs or policies will impact water resource systems. It then discusses some of the challenges in modelling complex, real-world water systems which involve understanding many interconnected physical, ecological, social and political factors. The document concludes by arguing that while modelling is an important tool, it has limitations and model results alone do not replace the judgement of planners and managers.
The document discusses supply chain management and organized retailing in India. It provides details about:
1) Supply chain management involving strategic and operational decisions related to location, production, inventory, and transportation to efficiently manage the flow of products.
2) The evolution of organized retailing in India, with traditional grocers transforming and modern retailers like Big Bazaar emerging.
3) How organized retailers like Big Bazaar are leveraging scale to source products at lower costs and pass on savings to consumers, which could fuel further demand.
Produced By:
United States Army
School of Advanced Military Studies
In Partnership With:
U.S. Army Research Institute for the
Behavioral and Social Sciences
Ft. Leavenworth, KS 66027-1361
POC: Dr. Heather Wolters
913-684-9795
[email protected]
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
The authors would like to thank instructors from the
School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS) and the
Command and General Staff School (CGSS), as well
as COL Grigsby (former Director of SAMS) and Dr.
Scott Gorman, who provided their knowledge and
expertise related to the instruction of Army Design
Methodology. The authors would like to also thank
all those who participated in the interviews and
shared their experiences and valuable perspectives
related to Design.
Acknowledgement
2
Introduction ........................................... 4
Army Design Methodology:
What and Why .................................... 4
Views about Design ............................ 5
This Resource ..................................... 8
Section 1:
Practical Challenges in
Implementing ADM ............................... 11
Preparing for ADM
Recognizing When to Apply ADM ... 13
Determining Team Composition ..... 17
Determining Whether and How to
Structure the Activity ...................... 24
Determining the Level and Nature
of Commander Involvement ........... 28
Determining the
Resources Needed .......................... 34
Executing ADM
Introducing and Framing ADM ....... 38
Facilitating Discourse ..................... 42
Determining What to Include .......... 46
Capturing and Communicating
Key Insights .................................... 48
Table of ContentsTOC
1
B
F
A
D
H
C
I
G
E
INT
Section 2:
Examples from the Field ................. 52
Design During the
Sunni Awakening ..................... 53
Design over Dinner .................. 58
Mapping out the Mess.............. 60
Illumination in Vietnam ............ 66
Ongoing Design ....................... 68
Section 3:
Additional Resources ......................... 72
Appendix:
Organizational Barriers
to Implementing ADM ..................... 76
TOC
3
2
3
APP
2
1
4
3
5
All photographs used in this publication are in the
public domain and have been provided courtesy of the
U.S. Army or the U.S. Air Force.
INT
4
INTRODUCTION
Army Design Methodology:
What and Why
In today’s operational environments, the U.S.
Army is facing a range of problems and mission
sets that are arguably more varied and complex
than previously encountered. Forces face an
array of demands that encompass geo-political,
social, cultural, and military factors that interact in
unpredictable ways.
The inherent complexity of today’s operations has
underscored the need for the Army to expand
beyond its traditional approach to operat ...
Keys to extract value from the data analytics life cycleGrant Thornton LLP
Regulatory mandates driving transparency and financial objectives requiring accurate understanding of customer needs have heightened the importance of data analytics to unprecedented levels making it a critical element of doing business.
This document introduces the TOWS matrix, a tool for situational analysis. It discusses strategic planning and analyzing both external threats/opportunities and internal weaknesses/strengths. The TOWS matrix systematically matches these external and internal factors to help organizations develop strategies. It outlines the strategic planning process, including recognizing inputs, preparing profiles, analyzing the external and internal environment, developing alternative strategies, and implementing plans. The TOWS matrix can help managers analyze their situation and develop effective strategies to achieve organizational objectives.
Data analysis to assist the decision making process in crisis situationsElena Susnea
Susnea E. (2014). Data analysis to assist the decision making process in crisis situations, in Proceedings of "The International Annual Scientific Session Strategies XXI", Iss. 03 (pp. 120-124).
This document discusses using Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to help companies select countries for new business ventures. MCDA provides a formal, rigorous approach to evaluate multiple criteria, integrate both objective and subjective factors, and help decision-makers understand trade-offs between options. The document provides background on MCDA and reviews literature showing MCDA has not been widely used for country selection, especially among small businesses. It then presents an example MCDA model to analyze country selection criteria and rank potential countries.
1. T RADITIONAL APPROACHES to the decision-
making process have employed analytical
models that generate and compare options based on
The Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD)
model asserts that decision makers draw upon
weighted features. This is often referred to as multi- their experience to identify a situation as
attribute decision making. The deliberate procedures representative of or analogous to a particular
developed by the Armed Forces for operational class of problem. This recognition then leads to
planning—the Joint Operational Planning and Ex- an appropriate course of action (COA), either
ecution System (JOPES)—represent a systematic directly when prior cases are sufficiently similar,
application of this approach.1 Figure 1 illustrates the or by adapting previous approaches. The
basic components in this approach to the decision- decision maker then evaluates the COA through
making process. a process of “mental simulation.”
Recent studies in real-world settings, including
tactical commanders in field environments, have
led to a different model of the decision-making In general, RPD reflects the ubiquitous influence
process.2 These studies of naturalistic decision of analogy in human perception and problem solv-
making (NDM) have resulted in the development ing.4 Such analogical thinking has demonstrated
of the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model.3 both its positive and negative effects at the highest
The RPD model asserts that decision makers draw levels of national security decision making.5 The
upon their experience to identify a situation as emergence of this new model of decision making
representative of or analogous to a particular has direct implications for issues such as training for
class of problem. This recognition then leads command, evaluating the expertise of commanders
to an appropriate course of action (COA), either and designing decision-support systems.6 The model
directly when prior cases are sufficiently similar, suggests markedly different decision-support sys-
or by adapting previous approaches. The decision tems, focusing on accurate situation assessment
maker then evaluates the COA through a process and case-based reasoning (recalling similar cases)
of “mental simulation.” Figure 2 illustrates the as opposed to the feature-based comparison of
basic structure of the RPD model both in its sim- options inherent in systems such as JOPES.
plest version and when the decision maker eval- However, one must recognize that both the ana-
uates options through use of mental models. lytic and the recognitional modes of decision mak-
66 November-December 2000 l MILITARY REVIEW
2. LEADERSHIP
ing are desirable and, indeed, complementary. In
fact, studies of decision making in natural settings The emergence of this new model of
have demonstrated that decision makers employ decision making has direct implications for
RPD and analytic strategies at different times, de- issues such as training for command, evaluating
pending on the problem situation, their level of ex- the expertise of commanders and designing
perience and other factors.7
decision-support systems. . . . Both the analytic
Figure 3 compares the strengths and weaknesses
and the recognitional modes of decision making
of the two strategies. The strengths of each approach
are desirable and, indeed, complementary.
essentially mirror the weaknesses of the other. As
a result, optimal decision making tends to involve l Ill-structured problems.
some combination of both modes. For example, in l Uncertain, dynamic environments.
operations planning, initial COAs may be generated l Shifting, ill-defined or competing goals.
by the commander based on analogous situations l Multiple event-feedback loops.
(RPD-based decision making), and the COAs can l High stakes.
then be assessed (by the staff) via analytic methods. l Knowledge-rich environments.
Conversely, once the staff generates COAs for the l High decision complexity.8
commander via analytic methods, recognitional de- Each of these factors is present to varying degrees
cision making may influence the commander’s se- in military planning at the strategic, operational and
lection of the one(s) to implement. Figure 4 illus- tactical levels. In general, the strategic and opera-
trates these “mixed” modes of military planning, tional levels certainly allow more time and tend to
indicating the interdependent and complementary have greater resources for the planning process and
nature of the two approaches. thereby favor analytic planning to a greater degree.
However, such factors as the increasing pace of
Decision-MakingModels warfare, extended battlespace, ability to mass effects
andtheLevelsofWar and target strategically, near-instantaneous sharing
Factors characterizing naturalistic decision- of situational information and the increasing politi-
making environments include: cal sensitivity associated with even tactical actions
l Time pressure/constraints. are causing these levels to merge.9
MILITARY REVIEW
MILITARY REVIEW l
l November-December 2000 67
3. not feasible in the past. Conversely, real-time or
Technology is driving the levels of war closer faster-than-real-time decision-aiding technologies
in terms of the capability and ease of applying the allow COA analyses at the tactical level to a degree
two methods. . . . The increasing pace of warfare, not possible previously, enabling more effective
extended battlespace, ability to mass effects and analytic planning and replanning. As a result of
target strategically, near-instantaneous sharing these factors, these two complementary modes of
of situational information and the increasing decision making will likely become increasingly
political sensitivity associated with even tactical interwoven and interdependent. Selecting the domi-
actions are causing these analytical and nant mode of operations will depend on both situ-
recognitional levels to merge. ational factors, such as time constraints and size/
makeup of staff, and personal ones, including
decision-making style, level of expertise and
In addition, technology is driving the levels closer management style.
in terms of the capability and ease of applying the
two methods. For example, the situational under- Implications
standing now available at higher echelons and the Significant implications of the merging levels of war
commensurate ability to visualize the battlespace and the supporting technologies affect training and
allow recognitional decision making to a degree systems design. In the training arena, commanders
68 November-December 2000 l MILITARY REVIEW
4. Tyler Wirken
and staff personnel
must be trained to em-
ploy both analytic and
recognitional decision-
making strategies appro-
priately, either singly or
in some integrated form.
This dual application will
require changes to cur-
rent training practice,
which emphasizes ana-
lytic planning.10 With re-
gard to systems, future
military planning and
decision-aiding systems
must be flexibly de-
signed to support both
decision-making modes.
This design will require
databases and decision
aids that can interactive-
ly adapt to the desired
mode and display meth-
odologies optimized to
select and format infor-
mation compatible with
the task at hand and the
preferred strategy.
The importance of in-
corporating such capa-
bilities has been most
clearly demonstrated in
past failures to design In-depth analyses of the incident in the Persian Gulf
systems to be compatible involving the shooting down of an Iranian commercial airliner by the
with the information- USS Vincennes identified a number of key problems with the design
processing and decision- of the human-system interfaces that contributed to the error. . . .
making characteristics of A human-machine mismatch occurs between modern computer
the operator or user. For systems, which can process and display information at phenomenal
example, in-depth analy- rates, and the comprehension capability of users, which has
ses of the incident in the remained almost static for thousands of years.
Persian Gulf involving
the shooting down of an
Iranian commercial airliner by the USS Vincennes rates, and the “comprehension capability of users,
identified a number of key problems with the de- which has remained almost static for thousands of
sign of the human-system interfaces that contributed years.”12
to the error. One author discussing the Vincennes Similar problems have been identified in signifi-
incident maintains that “the system was poorly cant incidents in the nuclear power industry, such
suited for use by human beings during rapid mili- as Three Mile Island.13 Emerging approaches to
tary action.” He says a human-machine mismatch
11
decision making offer the potential for increased
occurs between modern computer systems, which understanding of such errors and for mitigating the
can process and display information at phenomenal factors that contribute to them.
MILITARY REVIEW l November-December 2000 69
5. vides commanders with situational awareness, the
The computer applique system is a ability to see on video displays the location of forces
tactical intranet that provides commanders with in the field, artillery postures, aviation and air de-
situational awareness, the ability to see on fense activity, intelligence estimates, supply levels,
video displays the location of forces in the field, weather reports and even live news broadcasts. Sim-
artillery postures, aviation and air defense activ- ply by touching a keyboard, a commander can di-
ity, intelligence estimates, supply levels, weather rect troop movements or order fire, and a gunner
reports and even live news broadcasts. By on the battlefield can relay reports or requests.
touching a keyboard, a commander can direct Army planners expect the tactical intranet to have
troop movements or order fire, and a gunner on profound implications for the rhythm and tactics of
the battlefield can relay reports or requests. battle. For instance, the ability to know the location
of friendly and enemy forces as a fight unfolds
should permit advancing infantry units to disperse
Less dramatic, but no less significant, is the Army more widely and move more quickly across a battle-
experience at the National Training Center (NTC), field, accelerating the pace of battle. In turn, this
Fort Irwin, California, with a Force XXI Advanced speed will require commanders to revise cumber-
Warfighting Experiment (AWE). The AWE was to some procedures for issuing orders, which now in-
assess the impact of advanced digitization, technol- volve the time-consuming preparation of staff esti-
ogy and newly developed doctrine on the capabili- mates and options.”14
ties of the 1st Brigade, 4th Infantry Division (the To assure these advanced information technolo-
Army’s Experimental Brigade) in engagements with gies provide maximum benefit to the user, the Army
the NTC’s Opposing Force (OPFOR). Results of the needs to incorporate the types of adaptive decision-
AWE demonstrated both the advantages and limi- aiding capabilities discussed above. These technolo-
tations of state-of-the-art digital communications gies will achieve their optimal effectiveness only if
technology. As Graham describes it, “At the core they are compatible with the cognitive capabilities
of the new design is what the Army calls its com- and limitations of the commanders, staff and soldiers
puter applique system, a tactical intranet that pro- who will use them. MR
NOTES
1. Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, Naval Operational Planning, NWP-11 7. Gary A. Klein, “Strategies of Decision Making,” Military Review (May 1989)
(Revision F), Draft, November, 1989; Headquarters, United States Marine Corps, 56-64; Gary A. Klein, “Recognition-Primed Decisions” in W. Rouse, ed., Advances
Command and Staff Action, FMFM 3-1, May, 1979; and US Army Command and in ManMachine Systems Research, Vol. 5 (Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, Inc, 1989),
General Staff College, Command and Staff Decision Processes, CGSC Student 47-92.
Text 101-5, January, 1994. 8. Janis A. Cannon-Bowers, Eduardo Salas and John S. Pruitt, “Establishing
2. Gary A. Klein, “Strategies of Decision Making,” Military Review, (May 1989), the Boundaries of a Paradigm for Decision-Making Research,” Human Factors
56-64; and Gary A. Klein and Roberta Calderwood, “Decision Models: Some Les- (June 1996), 193-205.
sons From the Field,” IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 9. Douglas A. Macgregor, “Future Battle: The Merging Levels of War,” Param-
September-October, 1991, 1018-1026. eters (Winter 1992-93), 33-47.
3. Janis A. Cannon-Bowers, Eduardo Salas and John S. Pruitt, “Establishing 10. MAJ John F. Schmitt, “How We Decide,” 16-20.
the Boundaries of a Paradigm for Decision-Making Research,” Human Factors, 11. William P. Gruner, “No Time for Decision Making,” U.S. Naval Institute Pro-
(June 1996), 193-205; and Gary A. Klein, Naturalistic Decision Making: Implica- ceedings (1990), 39-41.
tions for Design (Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH: Crew Station Ergonomics 12. Susan G. Hutchins, Principles for Intelligent Decision Aiding, Technical Re-
Information Analysis Center, 1993). port 1718 (San Diego, CA: Naval Command, Control and Ocean Surveillance
4. Keith Holyoak and Paul Thagard, Mental Leaps: Analogy in Creative Thought Center), 14-15.
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1995). 13. Jens Rasmussen, On Information Processing and Human Machine In-
5. Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May, Thinking in Time: The Uses of His- teraction: An Approach to Cognitive Engineering (Amsterdam: North Holland,
tory for Decision Makers (New York: The Free Press, 1986). 1985).
6. MAJ John F. Schmitt, “How We Decide,” Marine Corps Gazette, (October 14. Bradley Graham, “Army Trying Out Electrons to See If It Can Get Smaller
1995), 16-20; and LTC George E. Rector Jr., “Leadership and Decisionmaking,” and Faster: 2-Week Dry Run in the Mojave Desert Ends in Something of a Draw,”
Marine Corps Gazette (October 1995), 21-23. Washington Post, 31 March 1997, A4.
Thomas H. Killion is the acting deputy director for Research, Office of the Assis-
tant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics and Technology, Washington,
D.C. He received a B.S. from St. Mary’s College, Minnesota, and an M.S. and a Ph.D.
from the University of Oregon. He is a graduate of the US Naval War College. His previ-
ous positions include executive assistant to the director, US Army Research Labora-
tory, Washington, D.C.; advanced technology team leader for the Unmanned Aerial
Vehicles Joint Project, Washington, D.C.; and principal scientist in electronic com-
bat training for the Operations Training Division, US Air Force (USAF) Human Re-
sources Laboratory (now the Aircrew Training Division, USAF Armstrong Labora-
tory), Williams Air Force Base, Arizona. His article “Army Basic Research Strategy”
appeared in the March-April 1997 edition of Military Review.
70 November-December 2000 l MILITARY REVIEW