SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Goldman Stanley
Confidential Draft
Project Jaguar
Presentation to the Board of Directors
August 17, 2017
Goldman Stanley
Executive Summary
▪ Over the past year, Jaguar’s share price has barely changed, falling by ~33% (~$50) and then rising by ~50% (~$50) to
its current level of $147.40 (there has also been little net change over the past ~3 years)
▪ At its current levels, Jaguar is undervalued relative to Comparable Public Companies and on an intrinsic, cash-flow
basis; Precedent Transactions and Premiums also imply a much higher share price
▪ Jaguar’s promising portfolio, pricing power, and market position could make it an attractive acquisition candidate and
allow it to achieve a significantly higher valuation in a deal
▪ Such a strategy would allow Jaguar to maximize shareholder value, expand its geographic reach and distribution
channels, and acquire more resources for future research & development and M&A activity
▪ Given Jaguar’s unique attributes, we believe a purchase premium between 20% and 35%, implying share prices
ranging from approximately $175 to $200, is possible
▪ We recommend a highly targeted process focused on the most likely (“Tier 1”) potential partners, along with an
outreach to Tier 2 potential partners while discussions with Tier 1 partners are ongoing
2
Goldman Stanley
Summary of Jaguar Valuation
#1
Jaguar appears to be undervalued by 20-35%, depending on the methodology
and selected year
Implied Valuation
#2
Despite significantly higher revenue growth, EBITDA growth, and EBITDA
margins, Jaguar trades at a discount to the median EV / Revenue, EV /
EBITDA, and P / E multiples of its peer companies
Comparable Public
Companies
#3
Management forecasts indicate that Jaguar is moderately undervalued;
consensus figures produce the opposite result, but all analyses exclude the
value of potential synergies in an M&A deal
Discounted Cash Flow
(DCF) Analysis
#4
LTM EV / EBITDA multiples indicate an implied share price of $240+;
Premiums indicate an implied value between $180 and $200 per share
Precedent Transactions
3
Goldman Stanley
Operational Assumptions for Jaguar
4
Xyrem Peak Sales
Erwinaze Peak Sales
Defitelio Peak Sales
Vyxeos and JZP-110 Sales
Terminal Value
Implied Share Price
Management Forecast
▪ $3.8B in FY 22
Operating Margins
WACC
▪ $0.3B in FY 26
▪ $0.6B in FY 26
▪ $1.6B total in FY 26
▪ 2.5% Terminal Growth Rate
▪ ~$157
▪ 40% declining to 25-30%
▪ 10.0% declining to 7.5%
Consensus Forecast
▪ $3.1B in FY 21
▪ $0.3B in FY 26
▪ $0.5B in FY 26
▪ $1.1B total in FY 26
▪ 2.0% Terminal Growth Rate
▪ ~$113
▪ 40% declining to 25-30%
▪ 10.0% declining to 7.5%
Goldman Stanley
Management Case – Financial Projections
5
($ USD in Millions)
Goldman Stanley
Revenue Projections: Management vs. Consensus
6
($ USD in Billions)
Goldman Stanley
EBITDA Projections: Management vs. Consensus
7
($ USD in Billions)
Goldman Stanley
Valuation Summary – Management Case
▪ All market data as of August 16, 2017
▪ Given that Jaguar’s revenue growth, EBITDA growth, and EBITDA margins exceed those of its peer companies, we
believe that the 75th percentile multiples are the most applicable ones here
8
($ USD in Dollars as Stated)
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar Comparable Public Companies
Specialty Pharmaceutical Companies That Sell Primarily Branded Drugs, with LTM Revenue Between $500 Million and $5 Billion
9
(1) Financial data as of August 16, 2017.
($ USD in Billions)
Comparable Public Companies – Revenue, CY 2017E – CY 2018E(1)
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar Comparable Public Companies
Specialty Pharmaceutical Companies That Sell Primarily Branded Drugs, with LTM Revenue Between $500 Million and $5 Billion
10
(1) Financial data as of August 16, 2017.
($ USD in Billions)
Comparable Public Companies – EBITDA, CY 2017E – CY 2018E(1)
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar Comparable Public Companies
Specialty Pharmaceutical Companies That Sell Primarily Branded Drugs, with LTM Revenue Between $500 Million and $5 Billion
Comparable Public Companies – Growth and Valuation Multiples, CY 2017E – CY 2018E(1)
11
(1) Financial data as of August 16, 2017.
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar Precedent Transactions
U.S. and Canadian Pharmaceutical Sellers with $500 Million – $5 Billion in LTM Revenue, Aug. 16, 2012 – Aug. 16, 2017
12
($ USD in Millions)
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar DCF Analysis – Free Cash Flow Projections
13
($ USD in Millions)
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar DCF Analysis – Sensitivities
14
($ USD in Dollars as Stated)
▪ Output from the sensitivities below is based on the Management forecasts for Jaguar
▪ Range of Discount Rates is based on a 10.13% median WACC of comparable public companies and a 9.76% median
WACC with Jaguar’s current capital structure; Terminal Multiples and Growth Rates are linked to comparables
Goldman Stanley
Summary Profile of Equity Shareholders
Commentary:
▪ Gross Common Share Count: 58,739,693(1)
▪ Major institutional investors represent
approximately 97% of share ownership
▪ Largest institutional shareholders include:
▪ Putnam: 8,304,110 (14.1%)
▪ Fidelity: 8,290,410 (14.1%)
▪ Vanguard: 4,677,223 (8.0%)
▪ BlackRock: 3,110,681 (5.3%)
▪ Insiders own 2-3% of shares outstanding:
▪ Seamus Mulligan (Director): 1,048,008
(1.8%)
▪ Bruce Cozadd (CEO): 226,199 (0.4%)
▪ Given the lack of activist investors and the
high percentage of shares held by
traditional investment managers, the
chances of a challenge to a potential deal
are low
15
Source: Company proxy statements, investor filings, and Capital IQ.
(1) As of June 30, 2017 10-Q filing.
Investment
Managers:
81%
Hedge Funds:
12%
Individuals /
Insiders:
2%
Banks / Investment
Banks:
2%
Other:
3%
Goldman Stanley
Valuation Conclusions
The company’s margins and growth rates exceed the median figures of its
peer companies, indicating that it should be valued in-line with the 75th
percentile multiples
#1
This price represents a 35%+ premium to Jaguar’s current share price; greater
upside might be possible with a highly complementary partner
#2
Implied value is between $110 and $160 / share, but these projections do not
include possible synergies in an M&A deal and, as such, they likely undervalue
Jaguar
#3
Premiums Paid indicate a median implied share price of $180 – $200, with a
75th percentile implied share price in the $200 – $220 range
#4
“75th Percentile”
Valuation is Justified
Goal: $200 / Share
Discounted Cash Flow
(DCF) Analysis
Premiums Paid
Analysis
16
Goldman Stanley
Potential Strategic Partners
▪ Size, ability to pay, product/pipeline, and strategic fit should all be considered
▪ At $200 / share, Jaguar would be worth an Enterprise Value of nearly $15 billion; therefore, potential partners should be
able to drawn on this much Cash and Debt to fund the deal
▪ Both branded and generics companies should be considered, in light of recent M&A activity
Tier 1 Potential Partners Tier 2 Potential Partners
Market Cap: ▪ Significantly larger than Jaguar ▪ Closer to Jaguar’s size
Ability to Pay: ▪ Capable of paying at least $10-15
billion in Cash and Debt
▪ May have to issue Stock to fund
the full purchase price
Strategic Fit: ▪ Solid product and pipeline fit ▪ Solid product and pipeline fit
17
Goldman Stanley
Potential Strategic Partners
Tier 1 Potential Partners
Tier 2 Potential Partners
18
Goldman Stanley
Key Recommendations
▪ We recommend engaging in targeted discussions with the Tier 1 candidates and assessing their receptiveness to M&A
discussions
▪ At the same time, Goldman Stanley will reach out to Tier 2 candidates and introduce Jaguar as a potential partner
▪ M&A process with Tier 1 candidates will take significantly longer due to the size of the companies, so we recommend
conducting both processes simultaneously
▪ Depending on the responses from Tier 1 and Tier 2 candidates, Goldman Stanley and Jaguar may do additional
research to determine other potential partners and then approach them
Targeted Sell-Side M&A Broad Sell-Side M&A
< 5 potential partners 10 – 100 potential partners
6 – 12 months Time required is highly variable
Close-ended Iterative process
Higher success probability Lower success probability
19
Goldman Stanley
Process Recommendations
▪ Combination of targeted discussions plus
broader search conducted in background
maximizes success probability and
minimizes disruption to Jaguar
▪ Additional parties contacted depend on
responsiveness of Tier 1 and Tier 2
partners
▪ Interested parties would sign NDAs and
then proceed into due diligence and
valuation discussions with Jaguar
Broad
Marketing
RECOMMENDED
Specialized
Negotiations With
One Party
Highly Targeted
Process
Broad M&A
Process
Targeted
Discussions +
Broader Search
20

More Related Content

Similar to Jazz Pharmaceuticals Sell-Side Pitch Deck.pdf

Annual stockholders meeting presentation
Annual stockholders meeting presentationAnnual stockholders meeting presentation
Annual stockholders meeting presentation
investorsamtd
 
AFP_Sept 2015_v3
AFP_Sept 2015_v3AFP_Sept 2015_v3
AFP_Sept 2015_v3
Matt Roush, CTP
 
Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Stock Analysis Report
Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Stock Analysis ReportOllies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Stock Analysis Report
Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Stock Analysis Report
Stock Target Advisor
 
Jefferies 2013 Global Industrials Conference Presentation
Jefferies 2013 Global Industrials Conference PresentationJefferies 2013 Global Industrials Conference Presentation
Jefferies 2013 Global Industrials Conference Presentation
Zep Inc.
 
State of the Special Finance Industry (2016)
State of the Special Finance Industry (2016)State of the Special Finance Industry (2016)
State of the Special Finance Industry (2016)
DealerStrong
 
KeyBank M&A Pitch Deck.pdf
KeyBank M&A Pitch Deck.pdfKeyBank M&A Pitch Deck.pdf
KeyBank M&A Pitch Deck.pdf
draconix1112
 
SAGE Page 2016 Q1
SAGE Page 2016 Q1SAGE Page 2016 Q1
SAGE Page 2016 Q1
David Sherlock
 
Seminar 8 creating an investment recommendation
Seminar 8   creating an investment recommendationSeminar 8   creating an investment recommendation
Seminar 8 creating an investment recommendation
pvalantagul
 
Zep presentation - june 2013
Zep   presentation - june 2013Zep   presentation - june 2013
Zep presentation - june 2013
Zep Inc.
 
20180620 sauc oppenheimer consumer conference widescreen final
20180620 sauc oppenheimer consumer conference widescreen final20180620 sauc oppenheimer consumer conference widescreen final
20180620 sauc oppenheimer consumer conference widescreen final
drhincorporated
 
Zep Inc. Company Overview - October 2013
Zep Inc. Company Overview - October 2013Zep Inc. Company Overview - October 2013
Zep Inc. Company Overview - October 2013
Zep Inc.
 
Zep presentation - may 2013
Zep   presentation - may 2013Zep   presentation - may 2013
Zep presentation - may 2013
Zep Inc.
 
Magna Final Analysis edit
Magna Final Analysis editMagna Final Analysis edit
Magna Final Analysis edit
Sumedh Wargantiwar
 
Report template gme v5
Report template gme v5Report template gme v5
Report template gme v5
olexmat
 
Reducing Portfolio Volatility
Reducing Portfolio Volatility Reducing Portfolio Volatility
Reducing Portfolio Volatility
Stanley Laman Group Ltd
 
GRIN - Grown Rogue - M partners Report
GRIN - Grown Rogue - M partners ReportGRIN - Grown Rogue - M partners Report
GRIN - Grown Rogue - M partners Report
MomentumPR
 
Report on Staple's
Report on Staple'sReport on Staple's
Report on Staple's
Jiaying Zhu
 
Raymond James-Institutional-Conference-2017
Raymond James-Institutional-Conference-2017Raymond James-Institutional-Conference-2017
Raymond James-Institutional-Conference-2017
investorsamtd
 
2016 Walsh University CFA Challenge Team PowerPoint (1)
2016 Walsh University CFA Challenge Team PowerPoint (1)2016 Walsh University CFA Challenge Team PowerPoint (1)
2016 Walsh University CFA Challenge Team PowerPoint (1)
Jerad Kitzler
 
FIN 470 Extra Credit AssignmentOptional Extra Credit Assignmen.docx
FIN 470 Extra Credit AssignmentOptional Extra Credit Assignmen.docxFIN 470 Extra Credit AssignmentOptional Extra Credit Assignmen.docx
FIN 470 Extra Credit AssignmentOptional Extra Credit Assignmen.docx
mydrynan
 

Similar to Jazz Pharmaceuticals Sell-Side Pitch Deck.pdf (20)

Annual stockholders meeting presentation
Annual stockholders meeting presentationAnnual stockholders meeting presentation
Annual stockholders meeting presentation
 
AFP_Sept 2015_v3
AFP_Sept 2015_v3AFP_Sept 2015_v3
AFP_Sept 2015_v3
 
Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Stock Analysis Report
Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Stock Analysis ReportOllies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Stock Analysis Report
Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Stock Analysis Report
 
Jefferies 2013 Global Industrials Conference Presentation
Jefferies 2013 Global Industrials Conference PresentationJefferies 2013 Global Industrials Conference Presentation
Jefferies 2013 Global Industrials Conference Presentation
 
State of the Special Finance Industry (2016)
State of the Special Finance Industry (2016)State of the Special Finance Industry (2016)
State of the Special Finance Industry (2016)
 
KeyBank M&A Pitch Deck.pdf
KeyBank M&A Pitch Deck.pdfKeyBank M&A Pitch Deck.pdf
KeyBank M&A Pitch Deck.pdf
 
SAGE Page 2016 Q1
SAGE Page 2016 Q1SAGE Page 2016 Q1
SAGE Page 2016 Q1
 
Seminar 8 creating an investment recommendation
Seminar 8   creating an investment recommendationSeminar 8   creating an investment recommendation
Seminar 8 creating an investment recommendation
 
Zep presentation - june 2013
Zep   presentation - june 2013Zep   presentation - june 2013
Zep presentation - june 2013
 
20180620 sauc oppenheimer consumer conference widescreen final
20180620 sauc oppenheimer consumer conference widescreen final20180620 sauc oppenheimer consumer conference widescreen final
20180620 sauc oppenheimer consumer conference widescreen final
 
Zep Inc. Company Overview - October 2013
Zep Inc. Company Overview - October 2013Zep Inc. Company Overview - October 2013
Zep Inc. Company Overview - October 2013
 
Zep presentation - may 2013
Zep   presentation - may 2013Zep   presentation - may 2013
Zep presentation - may 2013
 
Magna Final Analysis edit
Magna Final Analysis editMagna Final Analysis edit
Magna Final Analysis edit
 
Report template gme v5
Report template gme v5Report template gme v5
Report template gme v5
 
Reducing Portfolio Volatility
Reducing Portfolio Volatility Reducing Portfolio Volatility
Reducing Portfolio Volatility
 
GRIN - Grown Rogue - M partners Report
GRIN - Grown Rogue - M partners ReportGRIN - Grown Rogue - M partners Report
GRIN - Grown Rogue - M partners Report
 
Report on Staple's
Report on Staple'sReport on Staple's
Report on Staple's
 
Raymond James-Institutional-Conference-2017
Raymond James-Institutional-Conference-2017Raymond James-Institutional-Conference-2017
Raymond James-Institutional-Conference-2017
 
2016 Walsh University CFA Challenge Team PowerPoint (1)
2016 Walsh University CFA Challenge Team PowerPoint (1)2016 Walsh University CFA Challenge Team PowerPoint (1)
2016 Walsh University CFA Challenge Team PowerPoint (1)
 
FIN 470 Extra Credit AssignmentOptional Extra Credit Assignmen.docx
FIN 470 Extra Credit AssignmentOptional Extra Credit Assignmen.docxFIN 470 Extra Credit AssignmentOptional Extra Credit Assignmen.docx
FIN 470 Extra Credit AssignmentOptional Extra Credit Assignmen.docx
 

Recently uploaded

Observational Learning
Observational Learning Observational Learning
Observational Learning
sanamushtaq922
 
Skimbleshanks-The-Railway-Cat by T S Eliot
Skimbleshanks-The-Railway-Cat by T S EliotSkimbleshanks-The-Railway-Cat by T S Eliot
Skimbleshanks-The-Railway-Cat by T S Eliot
nitinpv4ai
 
CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN TẬP VÀ PHÁT TRIỂN CÂU HỎI TRONG ĐỀ MINH HỌA THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT ...
CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN TẬP VÀ PHÁT TRIỂN CÂU HỎI TRONG ĐỀ MINH HỌA THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT ...CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN TẬP VÀ PHÁT TRIỂN CÂU HỎI TRONG ĐỀ MINH HỌA THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT ...
CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN TẬP VÀ PHÁT TRIỂN CÂU HỎI TRONG ĐỀ MINH HỌA THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT ...
Nguyen Thanh Tu Collection
 
NIPER 2024 MEMORY BASED QUESTIONS.ANSWERS TO NIPER 2024 QUESTIONS.NIPER JEE 2...
NIPER 2024 MEMORY BASED QUESTIONS.ANSWERS TO NIPER 2024 QUESTIONS.NIPER JEE 2...NIPER 2024 MEMORY BASED QUESTIONS.ANSWERS TO NIPER 2024 QUESTIONS.NIPER JEE 2...
NIPER 2024 MEMORY BASED QUESTIONS.ANSWERS TO NIPER 2024 QUESTIONS.NIPER JEE 2...
Payaamvohra1
 
Pharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brub
Pharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brubPharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brub
Pharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brub
danielkiash986
 
Juneteenth Freedom Day 2024 David Douglas School District
Juneteenth Freedom Day 2024 David Douglas School DistrictJuneteenth Freedom Day 2024 David Douglas School District
Juneteenth Freedom Day 2024 David Douglas School District
David Douglas School District
 
Contiguity Of Various Message Forms - Rupam Chandra.pptx
Contiguity Of Various Message Forms - Rupam Chandra.pptxContiguity Of Various Message Forms - Rupam Chandra.pptx
Contiguity Of Various Message Forms - Rupam Chandra.pptx
Kalna College
 
spot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skills
spot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skillsspot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skills
spot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skills
haiqairshad
 
Electric Fetus - Record Store Scavenger Hunt
Electric Fetus - Record Store Scavenger HuntElectric Fetus - Record Store Scavenger Hunt
Electric Fetus - Record Store Scavenger Hunt
RamseyBerglund
 
Philippine Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) Curriculum
Philippine Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) CurriculumPhilippine Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) Curriculum
Philippine Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) Curriculum
MJDuyan
 
220711130088 Sumi Basak Virtual University EPC 3.pptx
220711130088 Sumi Basak Virtual University EPC 3.pptx220711130088 Sumi Basak Virtual University EPC 3.pptx
220711130088 Sumi Basak Virtual University EPC 3.pptx
Kalna College
 
78 Microsoft-Publisher - Sirin Sultana Bora.pptx
78 Microsoft-Publisher - Sirin Sultana Bora.pptx78 Microsoft-Publisher - Sirin Sultana Bora.pptx
78 Microsoft-Publisher - Sirin Sultana Bora.pptx
Kalna College
 
SWOT analysis in the project Keeping the Memory @live.pptx
SWOT analysis in the project Keeping the Memory @live.pptxSWOT analysis in the project Keeping the Memory @live.pptx
SWOT analysis in the project Keeping the Memory @live.pptx
zuzanka
 
BIOLOGY NATIONAL EXAMINATION COUNCIL (NECO) 2024 PRACTICAL MANUAL.pptx
BIOLOGY NATIONAL EXAMINATION COUNCIL (NECO) 2024 PRACTICAL MANUAL.pptxBIOLOGY NATIONAL EXAMINATION COUNCIL (NECO) 2024 PRACTICAL MANUAL.pptx
BIOLOGY NATIONAL EXAMINATION COUNCIL (NECO) 2024 PRACTICAL MANUAL.pptx
RidwanHassanYusuf
 
A Visual Guide to 1 Samuel | A Tale of Two Hearts
A Visual Guide to 1 Samuel | A Tale of Two HeartsA Visual Guide to 1 Samuel | A Tale of Two Hearts
A Visual Guide to 1 Samuel | A Tale of Two Hearts
Steve Thomason
 
Accounting for Restricted Grants When and How To Record Properly
Accounting for Restricted Grants  When and How To Record ProperlyAccounting for Restricted Grants  When and How To Record Properly
Accounting for Restricted Grants When and How To Record Properly
TechSoup
 
Wound healing PPT
Wound healing PPTWound healing PPT
Wound healing PPT
Jyoti Chand
 
Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...
Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...
Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...
PsychoTech Services
 
MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025
MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025
MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025
khuleseema60
 
THE SACRIFICE HOW PRO-PALESTINE PROTESTS STUDENTS ARE SACRIFICING TO CHANGE T...
THE SACRIFICE HOW PRO-PALESTINE PROTESTS STUDENTS ARE SACRIFICING TO CHANGE T...THE SACRIFICE HOW PRO-PALESTINE PROTESTS STUDENTS ARE SACRIFICING TO CHANGE T...
THE SACRIFICE HOW PRO-PALESTINE PROTESTS STUDENTS ARE SACRIFICING TO CHANGE T...
indexPub
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Observational Learning
Observational Learning Observational Learning
Observational Learning
 
Skimbleshanks-The-Railway-Cat by T S Eliot
Skimbleshanks-The-Railway-Cat by T S EliotSkimbleshanks-The-Railway-Cat by T S Eliot
Skimbleshanks-The-Railway-Cat by T S Eliot
 
CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN TẬP VÀ PHÁT TRIỂN CÂU HỎI TRONG ĐỀ MINH HỌA THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT ...
CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN TẬP VÀ PHÁT TRIỂN CÂU HỎI TRONG ĐỀ MINH HỌA THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT ...CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN TẬP VÀ PHÁT TRIỂN CÂU HỎI TRONG ĐỀ MINH HỌA THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT ...
CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN TẬP VÀ PHÁT TRIỂN CÂU HỎI TRONG ĐỀ MINH HỌA THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT ...
 
NIPER 2024 MEMORY BASED QUESTIONS.ANSWERS TO NIPER 2024 QUESTIONS.NIPER JEE 2...
NIPER 2024 MEMORY BASED QUESTIONS.ANSWERS TO NIPER 2024 QUESTIONS.NIPER JEE 2...NIPER 2024 MEMORY BASED QUESTIONS.ANSWERS TO NIPER 2024 QUESTIONS.NIPER JEE 2...
NIPER 2024 MEMORY BASED QUESTIONS.ANSWERS TO NIPER 2024 QUESTIONS.NIPER JEE 2...
 
Pharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brub
Pharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brubPharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brub
Pharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brub
 
Juneteenth Freedom Day 2024 David Douglas School District
Juneteenth Freedom Day 2024 David Douglas School DistrictJuneteenth Freedom Day 2024 David Douglas School District
Juneteenth Freedom Day 2024 David Douglas School District
 
Contiguity Of Various Message Forms - Rupam Chandra.pptx
Contiguity Of Various Message Forms - Rupam Chandra.pptxContiguity Of Various Message Forms - Rupam Chandra.pptx
Contiguity Of Various Message Forms - Rupam Chandra.pptx
 
spot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skills
spot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skillsspot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skills
spot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skills
 
Electric Fetus - Record Store Scavenger Hunt
Electric Fetus - Record Store Scavenger HuntElectric Fetus - Record Store Scavenger Hunt
Electric Fetus - Record Store Scavenger Hunt
 
Philippine Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) Curriculum
Philippine Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) CurriculumPhilippine Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) Curriculum
Philippine Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) Curriculum
 
220711130088 Sumi Basak Virtual University EPC 3.pptx
220711130088 Sumi Basak Virtual University EPC 3.pptx220711130088 Sumi Basak Virtual University EPC 3.pptx
220711130088 Sumi Basak Virtual University EPC 3.pptx
 
78 Microsoft-Publisher - Sirin Sultana Bora.pptx
78 Microsoft-Publisher - Sirin Sultana Bora.pptx78 Microsoft-Publisher - Sirin Sultana Bora.pptx
78 Microsoft-Publisher - Sirin Sultana Bora.pptx
 
SWOT analysis in the project Keeping the Memory @live.pptx
SWOT analysis in the project Keeping the Memory @live.pptxSWOT analysis in the project Keeping the Memory @live.pptx
SWOT analysis in the project Keeping the Memory @live.pptx
 
BIOLOGY NATIONAL EXAMINATION COUNCIL (NECO) 2024 PRACTICAL MANUAL.pptx
BIOLOGY NATIONAL EXAMINATION COUNCIL (NECO) 2024 PRACTICAL MANUAL.pptxBIOLOGY NATIONAL EXAMINATION COUNCIL (NECO) 2024 PRACTICAL MANUAL.pptx
BIOLOGY NATIONAL EXAMINATION COUNCIL (NECO) 2024 PRACTICAL MANUAL.pptx
 
A Visual Guide to 1 Samuel | A Tale of Two Hearts
A Visual Guide to 1 Samuel | A Tale of Two HeartsA Visual Guide to 1 Samuel | A Tale of Two Hearts
A Visual Guide to 1 Samuel | A Tale of Two Hearts
 
Accounting for Restricted Grants When and How To Record Properly
Accounting for Restricted Grants  When and How To Record ProperlyAccounting for Restricted Grants  When and How To Record Properly
Accounting for Restricted Grants When and How To Record Properly
 
Wound healing PPT
Wound healing PPTWound healing PPT
Wound healing PPT
 
Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...
Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...
Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...
 
MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025
MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025
MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025
 
THE SACRIFICE HOW PRO-PALESTINE PROTESTS STUDENTS ARE SACRIFICING TO CHANGE T...
THE SACRIFICE HOW PRO-PALESTINE PROTESTS STUDENTS ARE SACRIFICING TO CHANGE T...THE SACRIFICE HOW PRO-PALESTINE PROTESTS STUDENTS ARE SACRIFICING TO CHANGE T...
THE SACRIFICE HOW PRO-PALESTINE PROTESTS STUDENTS ARE SACRIFICING TO CHANGE T...
 

Jazz Pharmaceuticals Sell-Side Pitch Deck.pdf

  • 1. Goldman Stanley Confidential Draft Project Jaguar Presentation to the Board of Directors August 17, 2017
  • 2. Goldman Stanley Executive Summary ▪ Over the past year, Jaguar’s share price has barely changed, falling by ~33% (~$50) and then rising by ~50% (~$50) to its current level of $147.40 (there has also been little net change over the past ~3 years) ▪ At its current levels, Jaguar is undervalued relative to Comparable Public Companies and on an intrinsic, cash-flow basis; Precedent Transactions and Premiums also imply a much higher share price ▪ Jaguar’s promising portfolio, pricing power, and market position could make it an attractive acquisition candidate and allow it to achieve a significantly higher valuation in a deal ▪ Such a strategy would allow Jaguar to maximize shareholder value, expand its geographic reach and distribution channels, and acquire more resources for future research & development and M&A activity ▪ Given Jaguar’s unique attributes, we believe a purchase premium between 20% and 35%, implying share prices ranging from approximately $175 to $200, is possible ▪ We recommend a highly targeted process focused on the most likely (“Tier 1”) potential partners, along with an outreach to Tier 2 potential partners while discussions with Tier 1 partners are ongoing 2
  • 3. Goldman Stanley Summary of Jaguar Valuation #1 Jaguar appears to be undervalued by 20-35%, depending on the methodology and selected year Implied Valuation #2 Despite significantly higher revenue growth, EBITDA growth, and EBITDA margins, Jaguar trades at a discount to the median EV / Revenue, EV / EBITDA, and P / E multiples of its peer companies Comparable Public Companies #3 Management forecasts indicate that Jaguar is moderately undervalued; consensus figures produce the opposite result, but all analyses exclude the value of potential synergies in an M&A deal Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis #4 LTM EV / EBITDA multiples indicate an implied share price of $240+; Premiums indicate an implied value between $180 and $200 per share Precedent Transactions 3
  • 4. Goldman Stanley Operational Assumptions for Jaguar 4 Xyrem Peak Sales Erwinaze Peak Sales Defitelio Peak Sales Vyxeos and JZP-110 Sales Terminal Value Implied Share Price Management Forecast ▪ $3.8B in FY 22 Operating Margins WACC ▪ $0.3B in FY 26 ▪ $0.6B in FY 26 ▪ $1.6B total in FY 26 ▪ 2.5% Terminal Growth Rate ▪ ~$157 ▪ 40% declining to 25-30% ▪ 10.0% declining to 7.5% Consensus Forecast ▪ $3.1B in FY 21 ▪ $0.3B in FY 26 ▪ $0.5B in FY 26 ▪ $1.1B total in FY 26 ▪ 2.0% Terminal Growth Rate ▪ ~$113 ▪ 40% declining to 25-30% ▪ 10.0% declining to 7.5%
  • 5. Goldman Stanley Management Case – Financial Projections 5 ($ USD in Millions)
  • 6. Goldman Stanley Revenue Projections: Management vs. Consensus 6 ($ USD in Billions)
  • 7. Goldman Stanley EBITDA Projections: Management vs. Consensus 7 ($ USD in Billions)
  • 8. Goldman Stanley Valuation Summary – Management Case ▪ All market data as of August 16, 2017 ▪ Given that Jaguar’s revenue growth, EBITDA growth, and EBITDA margins exceed those of its peer companies, we believe that the 75th percentile multiples are the most applicable ones here 8 ($ USD in Dollars as Stated)
  • 9. Goldman Stanley Jaguar Comparable Public Companies Specialty Pharmaceutical Companies That Sell Primarily Branded Drugs, with LTM Revenue Between $500 Million and $5 Billion 9 (1) Financial data as of August 16, 2017. ($ USD in Billions) Comparable Public Companies – Revenue, CY 2017E – CY 2018E(1)
  • 10. Goldman Stanley Jaguar Comparable Public Companies Specialty Pharmaceutical Companies That Sell Primarily Branded Drugs, with LTM Revenue Between $500 Million and $5 Billion 10 (1) Financial data as of August 16, 2017. ($ USD in Billions) Comparable Public Companies – EBITDA, CY 2017E – CY 2018E(1)
  • 11. Goldman Stanley Jaguar Comparable Public Companies Specialty Pharmaceutical Companies That Sell Primarily Branded Drugs, with LTM Revenue Between $500 Million and $5 Billion Comparable Public Companies – Growth and Valuation Multiples, CY 2017E – CY 2018E(1) 11 (1) Financial data as of August 16, 2017.
  • 12. Goldman Stanley Jaguar Precedent Transactions U.S. and Canadian Pharmaceutical Sellers with $500 Million – $5 Billion in LTM Revenue, Aug. 16, 2012 – Aug. 16, 2017 12 ($ USD in Millions)
  • 13. Goldman Stanley Jaguar DCF Analysis – Free Cash Flow Projections 13 ($ USD in Millions)
  • 14. Goldman Stanley Jaguar DCF Analysis – Sensitivities 14 ($ USD in Dollars as Stated) ▪ Output from the sensitivities below is based on the Management forecasts for Jaguar ▪ Range of Discount Rates is based on a 10.13% median WACC of comparable public companies and a 9.76% median WACC with Jaguar’s current capital structure; Terminal Multiples and Growth Rates are linked to comparables
  • 15. Goldman Stanley Summary Profile of Equity Shareholders Commentary: ▪ Gross Common Share Count: 58,739,693(1) ▪ Major institutional investors represent approximately 97% of share ownership ▪ Largest institutional shareholders include: ▪ Putnam: 8,304,110 (14.1%) ▪ Fidelity: 8,290,410 (14.1%) ▪ Vanguard: 4,677,223 (8.0%) ▪ BlackRock: 3,110,681 (5.3%) ▪ Insiders own 2-3% of shares outstanding: ▪ Seamus Mulligan (Director): 1,048,008 (1.8%) ▪ Bruce Cozadd (CEO): 226,199 (0.4%) ▪ Given the lack of activist investors and the high percentage of shares held by traditional investment managers, the chances of a challenge to a potential deal are low 15 Source: Company proxy statements, investor filings, and Capital IQ. (1) As of June 30, 2017 10-Q filing. Investment Managers: 81% Hedge Funds: 12% Individuals / Insiders: 2% Banks / Investment Banks: 2% Other: 3%
  • 16. Goldman Stanley Valuation Conclusions The company’s margins and growth rates exceed the median figures of its peer companies, indicating that it should be valued in-line with the 75th percentile multiples #1 This price represents a 35%+ premium to Jaguar’s current share price; greater upside might be possible with a highly complementary partner #2 Implied value is between $110 and $160 / share, but these projections do not include possible synergies in an M&A deal and, as such, they likely undervalue Jaguar #3 Premiums Paid indicate a median implied share price of $180 – $200, with a 75th percentile implied share price in the $200 – $220 range #4 “75th Percentile” Valuation is Justified Goal: $200 / Share Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Premiums Paid Analysis 16
  • 17. Goldman Stanley Potential Strategic Partners ▪ Size, ability to pay, product/pipeline, and strategic fit should all be considered ▪ At $200 / share, Jaguar would be worth an Enterprise Value of nearly $15 billion; therefore, potential partners should be able to drawn on this much Cash and Debt to fund the deal ▪ Both branded and generics companies should be considered, in light of recent M&A activity Tier 1 Potential Partners Tier 2 Potential Partners Market Cap: ▪ Significantly larger than Jaguar ▪ Closer to Jaguar’s size Ability to Pay: ▪ Capable of paying at least $10-15 billion in Cash and Debt ▪ May have to issue Stock to fund the full purchase price Strategic Fit: ▪ Solid product and pipeline fit ▪ Solid product and pipeline fit 17
  • 18. Goldman Stanley Potential Strategic Partners Tier 1 Potential Partners Tier 2 Potential Partners 18
  • 19. Goldman Stanley Key Recommendations ▪ We recommend engaging in targeted discussions with the Tier 1 candidates and assessing their receptiveness to M&A discussions ▪ At the same time, Goldman Stanley will reach out to Tier 2 candidates and introduce Jaguar as a potential partner ▪ M&A process with Tier 1 candidates will take significantly longer due to the size of the companies, so we recommend conducting both processes simultaneously ▪ Depending on the responses from Tier 1 and Tier 2 candidates, Goldman Stanley and Jaguar may do additional research to determine other potential partners and then approach them Targeted Sell-Side M&A Broad Sell-Side M&A < 5 potential partners 10 – 100 potential partners 6 – 12 months Time required is highly variable Close-ended Iterative process Higher success probability Lower success probability 19
  • 20. Goldman Stanley Process Recommendations ▪ Combination of targeted discussions plus broader search conducted in background maximizes success probability and minimizes disruption to Jaguar ▪ Additional parties contacted depend on responsiveness of Tier 1 and Tier 2 partners ▪ Interested parties would sign NDAs and then proceed into due diligence and valuation discussions with Jaguar Broad Marketing RECOMMENDED Specialized Negotiations With One Party Highly Targeted Process Broad M&A Process Targeted Discussions + Broader Search 20