1.
CRFB.org

2.
CRFB.org
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
The Pandemic Has Temporarily Crippled the Economy
Thousands of Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims
Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration

3.
CRFB.org
Driving Unemployment To Historic Highs

4.
CRFB.org
Putting 25 Million People Out of Work
Millions of People
Source: Congressional Budget Office
HISTORIC PROJECTED
-19.3
-12.6
-10.6
-9.3 -8.6 -8.1
-5.3
-4.4
-3.8
-3.4
-2.9
-2.5
0
-0.9
-24.6
-17.0
-14.4
-12.7
-11.5
-10.6
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Q4 Q1
2020
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2021
Q2 Q3 Q4
Unemployment Effect
Labor Force Effect
-17.8
-7.8
-25.6

5.
CRFB.org
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
And Shrinking Economic Output
Real GDP (trillions)
Source: Congressional Budget Office
HISTORIC PROJECTED

6.
CRFB.org
Policymakers Have Responded with Trillions of Relief
$2.3 trillion
$1.6 trillion
$307 billion
>$5.8 trillion*
$3.6 trillion
$380 billion
$2.4 trillion
$80 billion
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Federal Reserve Actions Legislative Actions Administrative Actions
Amount Authorized
Amount Disbursed/Committed
Deficit Impact
Trillions
*Some Fed facilities and programs have no announced cap or maximum, in which case, we assume the
max as the largest amount disbursed or committed since the crisis began.

7.
CRFB.org
Through Multiple Laws, Orders, and Facilities
Response Allowed Disbursed/Committed Deficit Impact
Legislative Actions $3.6 trillion $1.6 trillion $2.4 trillion
Coronavirus Preparedness & Response Supplemental Appropriations Act $8 billion >$2 billion $8 billion
Families First Coronavirus Response Act $192 billion ~$37 billion $192 billion
CARES Act $2.7 trillion $1.3 trillion $1.7 trillion
Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act $733 billion $203 billion $483 billion
Administrative Actions ~$380 billion ~$307 billion ~$80 billion
Declare national emergency ~$50 billion Unknown ~$50 billion
Delay tax filing deadline to July 15 ~$300 billion ~$300 billion $0
Other executive actions ~$30 billion $7 billion ~$30 billion
Federal Reserve Actions >$5.8 trillion $2.3 trillion N/A
Interest rate changes N/A N/A N/A
Asset purchases $1.8 trillion** $1.7 trillion N/A
Liquidity measures >$1.9 trillion $458 billion N/A
Emergency lending programs and facilities >$2.0 trillion $96 billion N/A
Deficit impact is from 2020-2030
**Represents amount disbursed plus the amount scheduled to be purchased through the following week, currently $50 billion for Treasuries and $33 billion
for mortgage-backed securities.

8.
CRFB.org
So Far, the Fiscal Response Matches the Great Recession
Billions
Note: Figures reflect 5-year cost estimates
Source: CBO, CRFB Calculations
American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act
$755
2010 Payroll Tax Holiday &
Other Measures: $303
Fannie/Freddie/TARP: $185
Economic Stimulus Act of 2008: $140
2012 Payroll Tax Holiday Extension: $101
Other
$322
Coronavirus Aid, Relief,
and Economic Security
(CARES) Act
$1,773
Paycheck Protection
Program and Health Care
Enhancement Act
$483
Families First Coronavirus
Response Act: $192
Coronavirus Preparedness
and Response Supplemental
Appropriations Act: $8
$1.8 trillion
$2.5 trillion
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
$2,400
$2,800
Great Recession COVID-19 Recession

9.
CRFB.org
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
But the Response is Far More Rapid
Deficit Impact Percent of GDP
Source: CBO, CRFB Calculations

10.
CRFB.org
Feb. 26th:
$4.16 trillion
May 20th:
$7.00 trillion
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mortgage Backed
Securities
U.S. Treasuries
Other
And is Coupled With Aggressive Fed Actions
Trillions
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
$4.09
trillion
$1.86
trillion
$1.05
trillion

11.
CRFB.org
www.COVIDMoneyTracker.org
Our Brand New Initiative Will Track the Dollars

12.
CRFB.org
Loans: $875 billion
(Up to $366 billion forgiven)
Total Cost:
$2.3 Trillion
Helping Citizens Understand the Legislation
† This includes $170 billion of tax cuts for businesses other than corporations, some of which are large companies.
* This includes $454 billion to set up a $4.5 trillion Fed facility, which could help support large businesses but also small
businesses and state and local governments.
Source: Legislative offices, JCT, bill text, CRFB estimates.
Source Recipient

13.
CRFB.org
Monitoring How Much as Been Disbursed
Billions
Source: IRS, JCT, CRFB calculations
Economic Impact Payment Disbursements
$150
$158 $160
$207
$221
51%
54% 55%
71%
76%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Apr. 15th Apr. 17th Apr. 24th Apr. 29th May 8th
Percent

14.
CRFB.org
And Who is Receiving Federal Support
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
1.1%
1.3%
1.4%
2.0%
2.4%
2.4%
3.1%
3.1%
4.5%
5.2%
5.7%
8.6%
8.9%
11.7%
12.0%
12.6%
13.1%
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50
Utilities
Public Administration
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Information
Educational Services
Finance and Insurance
Transportation and Warehousing
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Administrative/Support/Waste Management/Remediation Services
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Manufacturing
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Construction
Paycheck Protection Program Loans, by Industry
Percent of Loans Disbursed
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

15.
CRFB.org
And Who is Receiving Federal Support
Billions
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
$178.4
$167.5
$119.0
$108.5
$73.2 $71.5 $70.7 $66.6 $65.7 $64.0
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200

16.
CRFB.org
And Who is Receiving Federal Support
Airline Grant Loan Total
American Airlines $4.1 billion $1.7 billion $5.8 billion
Delta Airlines $3.8 billion $1.6 billion $5.4 billion
United Airlines $3.5 billion $1.5 billion $5.0 billion
Southwest Airlines $2.3 billion $1.0 billion $3.3 billion
Alaska Airlines $725 million $267 million $992 million
JetBlue Airways $685.1 million $250.7 million $935.8 million
SkyWest Airlines $336.6 million $101.4 million $438 million
Spirit Airways $264.3 million $70.4 million $334.7 million
Hawaiian Airlines $233 million $57 million $290 million
Allegiant Air $86 million $85.9 million $171.9 million
Mesa Airlines $92.5 million N/A* $92.5 million
Total Disclosed $16.1 billion $6.6 billion $22.8 billion
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

17.
CRFB.org
We Entered This Crisis with Trillion Dollar Deficits
$413 Billion
$1.4 Trillion
$1 Trillion
$1.3 Trillion
$1.7 Trillion
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Source: Congressional Budget Office January 2020 Baseline
Billions

18.
CRFB.org
Due to the Pandemic, The Budget Deficit Will Quadruple
Billions
Source: CRFB Calculations
$3.8 trillion
$1.4 trillion
$1.1 trillion $1.3 trillion
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Range of Uncertainty (current law)
Updated Deficit Projections (current law)
Pre-Crisis Deficit Projections

19.
CRFB.orgSource: CRFB Calculations
And Debt Will Soon Reach Record Levels
Percent of GDP
100%
107%
81%
89%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Range of Uncertainty
Updated Debt Projections (current law)
Pre-Crisis Debt (current law)

20.
CRFB.org
Who Will Buy this New Debt?
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Treasury Department
Japan
China
Other Foreign
State & Local Governments
Mutual Funds
Depository Institutions
Other Domestic Holdings
Federal Reserve
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
Sept. 2019
Trillions
FOREIGN
40%
DOMESTIC
47%
FED
13%

21.
CRFB.org
Japan Japan Japan
China China China
Other Foreign Other Foreign Other Foreign
State & Local Governments
Mutual Funds
Depository Institutions
Other Domestic Holdings
Domestic Holdings Domestic Holdings
Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Federal Reserve
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
Sept. 2019 Dec. 2019 Feb. 2020
Trillions
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Treasury Department
Who Will Buy this New Debt?

22.
CRFB.org
Japan Japan Japan
China China China
Other Foreign Other Foreign Other Foreign
State & Local Governments
Mutual Funds
Depository Institutions
Other Domestic
Holdings
Domestic Holdings Domestic Holdings
Foreign & Domestic
Holdings
Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
Sept. 2019 Dec. 2019 Feb. 2020 Apr. 2020
Trillions
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Treasury Department
Who Will Buy this New Debt?

23.
CRFB.org
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
$1.6
$1.8
3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6
On Net, The Fed has Absorbed All New COVID Debt
Trillions
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Treasury Department

24.
CRFB.org
But They Are Buying Longer Maturities…
Billions
$236
$951
$222
$117
$1,437
$170
$34
-$22
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
Bills
(< 1 Year)
Notes
(1-10 Years)
Bonds
(10-30 Years)
TIPS and FRN
(Various Maturities)
Fed Purchases
New Debt Held by the Public
Note: Chart shows Fed purchases and Treasury auctions since 3/4/2020
Source: Treasury Department, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

25.
CRFB.org
Mortgage Backed
Securities
U.S. Treasuries
Other
Is It Quantitative Easing or Debt Monetization?
Trillions
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
-$7
-$5
-$3
-$1
$1
$3
$5
$7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Other Liabilities
Non-Reserve
Deposits
Reserve Deposits
Currency
Treasuries
Mortgage-Backed
Securities
Other Assets

26.
CRFB.org
265%
101%
218%
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
200%
240%
280%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
And How Long Can It Continue?
HISTORIC PROJECTED
Source: CBO, CRFB Calculations