Housing Stats for 2020 with Becky Ashby

Southern
Economic
Nevada
Update
Presented by Jeremy Aguero to Las Vegas Realtors on 8/26/20

Southern Nevada Economic Update
The
Face
Mask

THE RESPONSE
MOVING FORWARD
THE CRISIS

This is a
Public Health
Crisis First

The Rapid Spread of COVID-19
Cumulative Cases
Source: Johns Hopkins University
188
Countries and
Territories Affected
23,721,008
Cases Worldwide
814,852
Deaths

New Daily COVID-19 Cases
448
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1/24 2/24 3/24 4/24 5/24 6/24 7/24 8/24
Nevada
39,061
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1/24 2/24 3/24 4/24 5/24 6/24 7/24 8/24
United States
3-Day Rolling Average
Source: Johns Hopkins University; Nevada Department of Health and Human Services
Nevada“StayatHome”Order
Phase2Begins
NationalStateofEmergency

Positivity Rate
16.3%
12.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
3/29
4/8
4/18
4/28
5/8
5/18
5/28
6/7
6/17
6/27
7/7
7/17
7/27
8/6
8/16
Nevada
21.8%
6.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
3/29
4/8
4/18
4/28
5/8
5/18
5/28
6/7
6/17
6/27
7/7
7/17
7/27
8/6
8/16
United States
7-Day Moving Average
Source: Nevada Department of Health and Human Services; CovidTracking
Nevada“StayatHome”Order
Phase2Begins

287
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
By State | June 1
Confirmed COVID-19 Cases per 100,000 Residents
Source: Johns Hopkins University; Nevada Department of Health and Human Services; US Census Bureau

2,156
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
By State | August 23
Confirmed COVID-19 Cases per 100,000 Residents
Source: Johns Hopkins University; Nevada Department of Health and Human Services; US Census Bureau

Source: Nevada Department of Health and Human Services; Southern Nevada Health District
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2/24 3/24 4/24 5/24 6/24 7/24 8/24
Daily New COVID-19 Admissions
Hospitalizations 7-Day Average
Clark County COVID-19 Hospitalizations
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
4/6 4/20 5/4 5/18 6/1 6/15 6/29 7/13 7/27 8/10 8/24
Confirmed and Suspected Hospitalizations
Confirmed Suspected

Economy in
Recession

RECESSIONS

RECOVERIES

Great
Recession
COVID-19
Crisis
September
2001

Great
Recession
COVID-19
Crisis
September
2001
Two Stimulus
Packages for
$1.5 Trillion
CARES Act
Package for
$2.3 Trillion
Airline
Stimulus for
$15 Billion

0.5 M
-7.8 M
-20.8 M
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Millions
Months
Early 2000s Recession Great Recession COVID-19 Crisis
Employment Change from Start of Recession
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

-16.0%
-50.4%
-19.9%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Months
Early 2000s Recession Great Recession COVID-19 Crisis
S&P 500 Change from the Start of the Recession
Source: Yahoo Finance

Public Health
Crisis Becomes an
Economic Crisis

0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
Millions
Nevada Employment
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Great Recession
196,000 Jobs Lost
Over 2.5 Years
COVID-19
280,000 Jobs Lost
in 2 Months

0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
Millions
Nevada Employment
Employment in April 2020 Roughly
Equivalent to Employment in
September 2009

-300,000
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
Year-Over-Year Change
Nevada Employment

6.7%
13.9%
30.1%
14.0%
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Recession Nevada
Nevada Unemployment Rate Has Dropped, But the State Has
More Unemployed Workers Than During Any Prior Recession
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation; Applied Analysis
184,639
185,161
185,489
186,221
186,342
186,835
186,861
224,673
349,545
429,746
Jul-2010
Jan-2011
Aug-2010
Dec-2010
Sep-2010
Nov-2010
Oct-2010
Jun-2020
May-2020
Apr-2020
10 Highest Unemployment Months in Nevada History

6.7%
13.9%
30.1%
14.0%
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Recession Nevada
Nevada’s Unemployment Rate and Continuing UI Claims
How Can These Statistics Coexist?
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation; Applied Analysis
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
State Extended Benefits Program PEUC (13 add'l weeks)
PUA (self-employed UI) State UI
371,238

Fraudulent
Unemployment
Insurance
Claims

The Speed of the Decline
41,163
62,700
434,388
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
September 11th
(9/11/01 to 11/3/01)
Great Recession
(1/10/09 to 2/28/09)
COVID-19 Crisis
(3/21/20 to 5/9/20)
Initial Claims
35,835
72,282
369,041
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
September 11th
(9/11/01 to 11/3/01)
Great Recession
(1/10/09 to 2/28/09)
COVID-19 Crisis
(3/28/20 to 5/16/20)
Continued Claims
Unemployment Insurance Claims | Historical 8-Week Periods
Source: Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
PercentEmployedinLeisureandHospitality
MSA Unemployment Rate
MSA Unemployment Rate vs. Percent Employed in
Leisure/Hospitality vs. Size of Leisure/Hospitality Industry
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Applied Analysis
Average
Average
Las Vegas, NV
29.0%

Impacts Sourced to Nonessential Business Closure Directive
Source: Clark County’s Southern Nevada Business Survey (N = 2,630 (note, 3.0% preferred not to answer))
Allowed to operate as
an essential business…
Required to work
from home…
Required to close
our doors…
with little to no
negative impact
but experienced a
meaningful
negative impact
but did not have a
meaningful
negative impact
and had a
meaningful
negative impact
and could not
operate at all
10.1% 39.4% 7.6% 13.8% 26.0%
49.5% 21.4% 26.0%

Impacts Sourced to Nonessential Business Closure Directive
Source: Clark County’s Southern Nevada Business Survey (N = 2,630 (note, 3.0% preferred not to answer))
Allowed to operate as
an essential business…
Required to work
from home…
Required to close
our doors…
with little to no
negative impact
but experienced a
meaningful
negative impact
but did not have a
meaningful
negative impact
and had a
meaningful
negative impact
and could not
operate at all
10.1% 39.4% 7.6% 13.8% 26.0%
79.2% experienced a meaningful negative impact

36.2%
28.0%
26.2%
7.1%
2.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Less than
40%
40% to
60%
60% to
99%
100%
(Same
level)
Unsure/No
answer
1.8%
34.1%
64.2%
Prefer not to answer
No
Yes
Reopened Doors or Employees Returned to Work
Source: Clark County’s Southern Nevada Business Survey (N = 2,630)
Back to Work? Operating Level Relative to Pre-COVID-19

1.8%
34.1%
64.2%
No
Yes
Reopened Doors or Employees Returned to Work
Back to Work?
1. The business could not financially afford
to reopen
2. Too difficult to employ necessary
protection measures
3. Employees were not willing to return to
work due to health concerns
4. Employees were not willing to return to
work because they are earning more on
unemployment
Why Not?

69.0%
24.2%
4.9% 1.9%
Increase Remain about
the same
Decrease Unsure/Prefer
not to answer
Sales or Revenue Expectations for 2020 vs. 2019
13.7% 13.9%
66.7%
5.6%
the same
not to answer
Before COVID-19 With COVID-19

2.1%
6.5% 9.3% 11.8% 12.1%
58.2%
1% to 5% 6% to 10% 11% to
15%
16% to
20%
21% to
25%
By more
than 25%
Sales or Revenue Expectations for 2020 vs. 2019
13.7% 13.9%
66.7%
5.6%
the same
not to answer
How Much of a Decrease? With COVID-19

Stimulus for
Households,
Businesses and
Governments

0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-$1.0
-$0.5
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
Trillions
Year-over-Year Total Growth
U.S. Disposable Personal Income
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CARES Act increases personal incomes in
the U.S. by $2.6T, roughly 3x the levels
witnessed during the Great Recession

0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
Trillions
Year-over-Year Total Growth
U.S. M2 Money Supply
This was funded by adding an
unprecedented amount of money
into domestic circulation

0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Year-over-Year Percent Change
U.S. M2 Money Supply
Increase in money supply is nearly twice
the largest increase reported during any
recession in past 50 years (1983)

Mostly For
Expenses
74.9%
Mostly to
Pay Off
Debt
14.1%
Mostly
Added to
Savings
11.1%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey, Week 12
Recreation
Household Goods
Clothing
Vehicle Payments
Mortage Payments
Rent
Household Supplies
Utilities
Food
How Are U.S. Households Spending Stimulus Payments?

Estimated CARES Act Aid Funding Allocation
Nevada
Note: Preliminary estimates and potentially conservative.
Name Estimated Funding
Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) (2.5x monthly average) $4.2 Billion
Emergency Increase in Unemployment Compensation ($600 per Week) $3.7 Billion
2020 Recovery Rebates for Individuals ($1,200 per Adult; $500 per Child) $2.6 Billion
Coronavirus Relief Fund (State and Local Governments) $1.3 Billion
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance $1.1 Billion
Public Health and Social Services Emergency Fund $891.0 Million
Subsidy for Certain Loan Payments $824.5 Million
Expansion of the Medicare Hospital Accelerated Payment Program $617.1 Million
Other $3.6 Billion
TOTAL ±$18.8 Billion

Mostly For
Expenses
76.7%
Mostly to
Pay Off
Debt
15.5%
Mostly
Added to
Savings
7.8%
63,365
91,753
424,784
573,266
624,854
850,261
1,083,167
1,209,774
1,564,054
Recreation
Household Goods
Clothing
Mortage Payments
Vehicle Payments
Rent
Household Supplies
Utilities
Food
Nevada Households Spending of Stimulus Payments

Funds Used by Nevada Households in the Past 7 Days
to Meet Spending Needs
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey, Week 12 (Multiple Responses Allowed)
6.5%
16.7%
19.9%
21.4%
25.3%
28.3%
62.6%
Money Saved From a Deferred Payment
Borrowing (Friends and Family)
Unemployment Insurance
Stimulus Payments
Credit Cards (Loans)
Savings
Regular Income

1.2%
2.6%
14.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
United States
Unemployment Compensation as % of Wages & Salaries
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Josh Bivens

Why This Matters…
Made Rent
Payment
82.0%
Didn't Make
Rent Payment
18.0%
0.7%
39.0%
19.8%
23.2%
17.3%
Will be
Deferred
High
Confidence
Moderate
Confidence
Low
Confidence
No
Confidence
Little to No
Confidence
40.5%
Little to No Confidence Among
Hispanic or Latino (49.8%)
African American (41.4%)
Less than High School (55.1%)
Households 5+ (47.4%)
HH With Children (43.1%)
Low Income HH (47.8%)
Rent Payment Last Month Rent Payment Next Month

Why This Matters…
Mortgage Payment Last Month Nevadans Reporting Food
Insufficiency “Sometimes” or
“Often” in the Past 7 Days
302,062
Delayed Getting Medical
Care Because of COVID-19
During Past Four Weeks
37.8%
Made
Mortgage
Payment
78.0%
Didn't Make
Mortgage
Payment
22.0%

Nevada Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)
Summary of Loans
Source: U.S. Small Business Administration
City
Number of
Loans
Total Loan
Amount
Jobs
Covered
Las Vegas 20,754 $661,157,771 127,339
Reno 4,766 $173,410,858 23,825
Henderson 4,346 $129,669,947 23,480
North Las Vegas 956 $28,689,485 6,118
Carson City 845 $32,965,367 4,490
All Other 4,938 $180,373,963 34,775
TOTAL 36,605 $1,206,267,392 220,027
Loans up to $150,000 Loans greater than $150,000
Loan Amount
Number of
Loans
Jobs
Covered
$5 million to $10 million 25 9,513
$350,000 to $1 million 1,615 101,604
$150,000 to $350,000 3,296 101,933
TOTAL 5,542 305,664
525,691
Jobs Covered

9.1%
9.0%
24.8%
57.1%
Own without a
mortgage
Own with a mortgage
Rent
Rent and Mortgage Relief
Yes
82.5%
No
17.1%
Prefer not
to answer
0.3%
Own or Rent Business Facilities Paying Full Rent?

9.1%
9.0%
24.8%
57.1%
Own without a
mortgage
Own with a mortgage
Rent
Rent and Mortgage Relief
Yes
87.7%
No
10.6%
Prefer not
to answer
1.7%
Own or Rent Business Facilities Paying Full Mortgage?

Estimated CARES Act Aid Funding Allocation
Nevada
Note: Preliminary estimates and potentially conservative.
Name Estimated Funding Expiration
Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) (2.5x monthly average) $4.2 Billion August 8, 2020
Emergency Increase in Unemployment Compensation ($600 per Week) $3.7 Billion July 31, 2020
2020 Recovery Rebates for Individuals ($1,200 per Adult; $500 per Child) $2.6 Billion May 2020
Coronavirus Relief Fund (State and Local Governments) $1.3 Billion December 30, 2020
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance $1.1 Billion December 31, 2020
Public Health and Social Services Emergency Fund $891.0 Million September 30, 2024
Subsidy for Certain Loan Payments $824.5 Million September 30, 2021
Expansion of the Medicare Hospital Accelerated Payment Program $617.1 Million April 26, 2020
Other $3.6 Billion Varies
TOTAL ±$18.8 Billion

CARES II
Stimulus Package
Source: Forbes
What will be included:
 Three pillars of focus: children,
employment and healthcare
 New direct payments and
PPP loans will be a part of the bill
 Up to $100 billion in funding for
schools and colleges
 Increased flexibility of Coronavirus
Relief Funds for state and local
governments
StimulusEconomic

Lost Wages
Assistance Program
Source: Forbes
How it will work:
 Each state can apply for the Lost Wages
Assistance (LWA) program through
September 10, 2020
 2 options for extra benefits:
1. States can offer UI claimants $300
per week without spending any
additional state dollars
2. States can offer $400 per week
by adding $100 in benefits
through each states own funds

Lost Wages
Assistance Program
Source: Forbes
How it will work:
 Claimants must self-certify they are
unemployed due to COVID-19
 Funding will continue until:
1. FEMA has expended $44 billion
from the Disaster Relief Fund (DRF)
2. DRF balance reaches $25
billion
3. Legislation is enacted that provides
extra unemployment compensation
4. December 27, 2020

31st (2020) Special Session
State Budget
Deficit
$1.2 Billion
Budget Reductions
Dept. of Health and
Human Services
$152 Million
Nevada System of Higher Education
$135 Million
Dept. of Education
(K-12)
$150 Million
Capital Projects
$73 Million
Revenue Increases
Net Proceeds of
Minerals Prepay
$55 Million
CARES Act
$50 Million
Governmental
Services Tax
$48 Million
Transfers and Reallocations
$91 Million

Eviction
Moratorium

Residential Units Permitted
32,658
3,740
9,911
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
TTM
-5.3%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
TTM
Las Vegas Area
Source: SalesTraq (June 2020)

Homebuilder sentiment jumps back to pre-
coronavirus pandemic high
“Homebuilder sentiment jumped 14 points to 72 in July, according to the
National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
(HMI). That is exactly where it was in March, before the pandemic hit the
U.S. economy. Anything above 50 is considered positive sentiment. The
index plummeted to 30 in April.”

New and Existing Home Prices
Las Vegas Area
Source: SalesTraq (June 2020)
$382,150
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
New Home Median Price
$300,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Existing Home Median Price

Apartment Market Metrics
Las Vegas Valley
Source: REIS, Applied Analysis (Q2 2020)
95.6%
84.0%
86.0%
88.0%
90.0%
92.0%
94.0%
96.0%
98.0%
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20*
4.35%
4.38%
4.30%
4.31%
4.32%
4.33%
4.34%
4.35%
4.36%
4.37%
4.38%
4.39%
Class A Class B/C

Fixed-Rate
U.S. Mortgage Interest Rates
Source: Freddie Mac (June 2020)
2.6%
3.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
15-Year 30-Year

New vs. Existing Home Sales
Las Vegas Area
Source: SalesTraq
9,666
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
TTM
New Homes
41,790
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
TTM
Existing Homes

Multiple Listings Service (MLS)
Effective Months of Availability
Source: MLS, SalesTraq
1.6
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Single Family Residential Median Closing Price
Southern Nevada
Source: Las Vegas Realtors
$330,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
8.9%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%

Condo/Townhouse Median Closing Price
Southern Nevada
Source: Las Vegas Realtors
$196,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
12.0%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%

COVID-19 Pandemic to Cause Pullback in
Commercial/Multifamily Lending in 2020
“Commercial and multifamily mortgage bankers are expected to close $248
billion of loans backed by income-producing properties in 2020, a 59
percent decline from 2019’s record volume of $601 billion, according to a
new forecast released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association.”
July 16, 2020

Industrial Market Office Market Retail Market
Inventory (SF) 133,358,200 56,460,500 54,870,400
Under Construction (SF) 6,923,300 552,800 463,400
Vacancy Rate 6.6% 14.8% 6.9%
Average Asking Rate (PSF) $0.67 $2.05 $1.77
Completions (SF) – Quarter 53,900 135,000 97,100
Completions (SF) – Trailing 12 Months 4,538,700 441,700 160,900
Net Absorption (SF) – Quarter +721,700 -95,400 +43,800
Net Absorption (SF) – Trailing 12 Months +4,255,600 +718,400 +523,400
Valley-Wide Totals
Commercial Real Estate Markets
Source: Applied Analysis

Office Space – Las Vegas Area
(2)
(1)
-
1
2
3
4
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Millions
Absorption
(Square Feet – Trailing Four-Quarters)
$2.05
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
$2.00
$2.20
$2.40
$2.60
'04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Asking Rent per SF

Reimagining the office and work life after COVID-19
“Before the pandemic, the conventional wisdom had been that offices were
critical to productivity, culture, and winning the war for talent. Companies
competed intensely for prime office space in major urban centers ....
Densification, open-office designs, hoteling, and co-working were the battle
cries. But estimates suggest that early this April, 62 percent of employed
Americans worked at home during the crisis.”
Source: McKinsey & Company

Retail Space – Las Vegas Area
(1)
-
1
2
3
4
5
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Millions
Absorption
$1.77
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
$2.00
$2.20
$2.40
'04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Asking Rent per SF

36%
Of Retailers Adjusted Their
Marketplace Strategy as a
Result of COVID-19
Source: Digitalcommerce360

Bankrupt

Grocers Urgently Need to Fix Broken Online
Business Model, as Pandemic Shifts More to Web
“U.S. online shopping accounted for 5.1% of grocery sales at the end of
2019 and rose to 6.6% as of April 12. …The trend has laid bare an
unpleasant reality for grocers: As they sell more online, their profits are
squeezed. Shifting consumer behavior caused by the coronavirus
pandemic has created new urgency for grocers to fix the broken business
model, particularly if there’s a second wave of infections.”
Source: CNBC

Dark Stores are the Future of Post-Pandemic Retail
“Whole Foods recently converted stores in Los Angeles and New York to
dark stores. Other grocery chains like Kroger and Giant Eagle have
temporarily moved some locations to dark stores, with plans that some
locations could become permanent. Dark stores are most common in
grocery chains, but the trend is also moving to other industries.”
Source: Forbes

Industrial Space – Las Vegas Area
(6)
(4)
(2)
-
2
4
6
8
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Millions
Absorption
$0.67
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
'04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Asking Rent per SF

Amazon hiring 1,000 full-time workers for
Henderson facility
“Amazon is accepting applications for more than 1,000 full-time positions for
its new fulfillment center near Bruner Avenue and Bermuda Road in west
Henderson. The 600,000 square-foot facility, which is scheduled to open this
year, will “support customer fulfillment by receiving large orders of inventory,
largely from small and medium sized businesses, and redistributing products
to fulfillment centers across the company’s operations network.”
Source: Las Vegas Sun

Source: VegasDevMap.com
Las Vegas Area
Development
Pipeline:
$23.6 Billion

Completing
2020

CompleTED
2020

Completing
2021

Underground people mover ready to expand to
Strip resorts
“Tourism leaders are forging ahead with Elon Musk's untested underground
people mover and planning to extend into the resort corridor. Plans call for
new connections to Encore and Resorts World Las Vegas on the north end
of the Strip.”

Private Sector
Response:
Protect Customers
and Workers

Las Vegas hotel operators have been
proactive and aggressive in their
commitment to customer and
employee safety

“We are all overreacting to
COVID-19. Let me out now.”
“I am coming out as
soon as Dr. Fauci
says it is okay.”
“I will come out six
months after I am certain
that a vaccine and
treatment are safe.”
Three Groups of Consumers

Activities Comfortable to Engage in Immediately
When Social Distancing Restrictions Are Lifted
Source: Technomic
5%
5%
9%
12%
15%
15%
21%
29%
29%
32%
48%
Attending a concert or play
Going to a museum
Going to a sporting event
Going to a bar
Traveling
Going to a movie
Going back to my office or place of work
Going shopping at a store or shopping mall
Going to a park
Going out to eat at a restaurant
Hanging out with friends/family
}Tourism-Related

Convention, Meeting and
Tradeshow Visitors
16% International
Visitors
14% Primary Purpose of
Trip is a Special Event
5%
Las Vegas Visitors

Las Vegas Visitor Origins
Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority
47% 12%
10%
14%
17%
West
Midwest
East
South
International

Las Vegas Visitor Origins with Travel Restrictions
Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority; New York Times; Center for Disease Control

3.88 M
1.22 M
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Millions
Monthly Total
Southern Nevada Visitor Volume
-2.66 M (-68.5%) Visitors

-97.0% -95.9%
-58.6%
-14.1% -11.9% -10.9% -10.2% -10.1% -9.8% -8.7%
-120%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Apr-2020 May-2020 Mar-2020 Sep-2001 Jan-2009 Dec-2008 Oct-2008 Sep-2008 Nov-2008 Mar-1981
Monthly Total
Largest Year-over-Year Visitor Volume Declines

49%
Las Vegas Visitors
Arrive by Air in 2019

Air vs. Drive-in
Source of Visitors
Y/E
2019
McCarran Passengers 51.5 M
Traffic Counts At I-15 CA
Border
16.3 M
Ratio 3.2 : 1

Source of Visitors
Y/E
2019
June
2020
McCarran Passengers 51.5 M 1,041,823
Traffic Counts At I-15 CA
Border
16.3 M 1,233,360
Ratio 3.2 : 1 0.8 : 1
3.1 3.0
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.2 3.1
3.4 3.5
2.4
0.3
0.5
0.8
Air vs. Drive-in

Daily TSA Checkpoint Travel Counts
March through August, 2020 and 2019
Source: U.S. Transportation Security Administration.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Millions
2019
2020

VACANTVACANT
65% Max
Capacity

BreakevenAirlineLoads
Source: Forbes

Investing into a Recession

The Debate Over Terminal 3
 $2.4 Billion Project
 Increased Capacity
 Additional Gates
 McCarran’s Biggest Project

The Beacon of Recovery

Stabilizing the
Local Economy

Where We Are
Where We Need to
Be (in a Hurry)
Kubler-Ross Grief Cycle

We Don’t Have One Crisis, We Have Four
Public
Health
Economic Fiscal Legal

PUBLIC HEALTH
 Prepare
 Communicate
 Prevent
 Communicate
 Educate
 Communicate
 Respond
 Communicate

ECONOMIC
 Keep the Economy Open
 Maximize Stimulus
 Incentivize Employment
 Eradicate Fraud
 Revisit Diversification
 Listen to Businesses
 Unified Messaging

FISCAL
 Spend Down Reserves
 Maximize Federal Stimulus
 Ensure Financial Flexibility
 Accelerate Capital Programs
 Prioritize Matching Funds
 Recognize We Have an
Economic Problem First and
a Fiscal Problem Second

LEGAL
 Balanced Protections:
Citizens, Businesses,
Workers, Customers
 Prepare for Caseload
Growth
 Aggressively Protect
Nevada’s Interests

Adapting to the
Near-Term Reality

Workers Are Going to Work Differently.
Not Some of Them, All of Them.

The Ability to Telework
By Industry (April 2020)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
20.3%
Agriculture
Leisure and Hospitality
Construction
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Transportation and Utilities
Other Services
Mining
Manufacturing
Education and Health Services
Public Administration
Professional and Business Services
Information
Financial Activities
Leisure and hospitality is the
largest industry in
Southern Nevada
and comprises nearly
one-fourth of the area’s
employment

Consumers are
Going to
Consume Goods
and Services
Differently.
Not Some of
Them, All of
Them.

70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Store Online Total Retail
Pre-crisis Baseline
Per-Capita Receipt Index (By Purchase Method)
Shopping Activity Changes
Source: NPD

Virtual Events Up 1000% Since COVID-19, With
52,000 On Just One Platform
“The challenge with a virtual conference is that you don’t have a captive
audience…a virtual conference is now competing with the very best of
entertainment and content on YouTube or TikTok or Facebook, not to
mention the all-star celebrity that a competing event managed to snag.”

The New Fan
Experience

Students are
Going to Learn
Differently.
Not Some of
Them, All of
Them.

Most Big School Districts Aren’t Ready to Reopen
The Clark County School District (CCSD) Board
of School Trustees unanimously approved the
school reopening plan to move to
full-time distance education
for the beginning of the 2020-21 school year.
All but two of the nation’s 10 largest districts exceed a key public health
threshold, according to a New York Times analysis.

One Size
Does Not
Fit All

One Size Does Not Fit All
High School Middle School Elementary School

Stay-at-Home Parent Working Parent ESL Parent
One Size Does Not Fit All

Resources Available to Nevada Students
Always
54.8%
Usually
26.9%
Sometimes
10.2%
Rarely
3.5%
Never
4.6%
Computer Availability
Always
67.3%
Usually
24.5%
Sometimes
6.3%
Rarely
0.9%
Never
1.0%
Internet Availability

Positioning
Nevada for
the Recovery

0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
'48 '51 '54 '57 '60 '63 '66 '69 '72 '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20
Percent Change From a Year Ago
Change in Gross Domestic Product
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Recovery Curve
Visitor Volume in Southern Nevada

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Recovery Curve
With the opening of the
economy, there will be a
bounce off the bottom

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Recovery Curve
When a vaccine and treatment
become widely available there will
be an economic resurgence

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Recovery Curve
The pre-vaccine recovery period will
be choppy, marked by consumer
resilience in some areas and
setbacks in others

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Recovery Curve
The post-vaccine recovery will be a
function of how much damage is done
to the economy pre-vaccine, including
stimulus dependence

Evolution of Health Crisis
Worse Most Likely Better
Second
(or Third)
Wave
Flattening
the Curve,
Flare Ups
Subsides
and/or
Science
Improves

Effective Vaccination Timing
Never 12 Months 6 Months

Federal Stimulus
Excessive
Stimulus
Warranted
($10T+)
Stimulus
Aligns with
the Need
($5T)
Limited
Stimulus
Required
(<$5T)

Fiscal Crises
Extended
Recovery
Extends
Budget Pain
Governments
Respond
Quickly and
Thoughtfully
FY 2021
Outperforms
Expectations

Population Growth
Out-migration
Exceeds
Move-ins
During 2020
Southern
Nevada Stable
Through 2021
Residents
Migrate from
High-Density
Urban Centers

Consumer Behavior
Permanently
Shifts and/or
Contracts
Returns to
Normal in
12 to 18
Months
Returns to
Normal in
6 Months

Travel and Tourism Industry
Int’l and
Convention
Permanently
Impacted
Mixed
Curve Cycle
Spans 18 to
36 Months
Pent-Up
Demand
Creates a
Surge

Southern
Economic
Nevada
Update

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