The Future of the CAP:
An Independent View
  Agra Europe Outlook for Agriculture
            16 March 2010


        Jack Thurston
     Co-founder, farmsubsidy.org
If citizens knew how the
 EU spends €55 billion a
year on farm subsidies...

 Would they approve?
Our method
 Freedom of
 information    Good stories
      +               +
                                Beer
Investigative   Public debate   policy
  reporting
6 | | BUSINESS                                                                                                                                                                                           Business & Media |
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              21.05.06




                                                                                                              CASH COWS


    WHAT IT COSTS THE TAXPAYER TO DESTABILISE DAIRY MARKETS
    British export subsidies, by                                                                                                                                                              Export subsidy granted, by company, 2004 and 2005
    destination country, 2004 and 2005


                                                                                                                                                                                                    Fayrefield
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Foods*                        £22,149,818



                                                                                                                                                                                                 Philpot Dairy
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Products                    £21,957,002



                                                                                                                      SAUDI                                                                             Dale
                                                                                                                     ARABIA                                                                            Farm*                   £19,391,504
                                                                                                                    £2,147,003

                                                                                                                                    INDIA
                                                                                                                                 £1,244,914                                                            Nestle
                                                                                                                                                                                                          UK                  £7,442,672
                                                                                                                                                                              JA N
                                                                                                                                                                               APAN
                                                                                                                           UAE          BANGLADESH                          £1,24 273
                                                                                                                                                                            £ 44,2
                                                                    ALGERIA                                             £6,016,605       £3,479,499
                                                                   £9,413,948
                                                                                                                                                                                                  TMC Dairies
                                                                     EGYP
                                                                       YPT                                                                                                                              (NI)                 £6,421,069
                   MEXICO                                          £3,03 340
                                                                     ,031,340
                  £7,714,200
                                                                                                                                                                    PH IPPINE
                                                                                                                                                                    PHILIP NES
                                                               JAMAICA
                                                               JA AICA                                                                                               £1,7 ,901
                                                                                                                                                                       ,708,9
                                                              £2,296,9 7
                                                              £2 296,987                                                    OMA
                                                                                                                            OMAN                                                                    Hoogwegt
                                                                                                                          £4,660,97
                                                                                                                            ,660,973                                                             International               £6,016,872

                                                                                                    SUDAN                              THAILA D
                                                                                                                                        HAILAND
                                                                           IVORY COAST
                                                                           IVO                    £3,906,970                          £6 06,805
                                                                                                                                      £6,706,80
                                                         VENEZUELA           £5,722,515
                                                                                722,515                                                                                                       Lakeland Dairies
                                                         £2,274,752                                                                                                                                      (NI)               £4,863,754
                                                                                   NIGERIA
                                                                                 £11,782,308                                          IND
                                                                                                                                      INDONESIA
                                                                                                                                            ESIA
                                                                                                                                       £2,94 8
                                                                                                                                       £2,947,118
                                                                                                                                                                                              Eilers & Wheeler
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sales         £4,009,257



                                                                                                                                                                                                     Meadow
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Foods           £3,335,750



                                                                                KEY                                                                                                               F Uhrenholt
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Dairy          £3,084,188
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    *includes subsidiaries
                                                                                      £1 to £4m              £4 to £7m               £7m+
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 £0m    5      10        15        20



GRAPHIC: CATH LEVETT                                                                                PHOTOGRAPH: ALAMY                                                                                                               SOURCE: FARMSUBSIDY.COM




Who’s creaming off EU subsidies?
Exports of cheap European dairy products are crushing the livelihoods of developing world farmers, writes Heather Stewart
              ritish-based exporters, including   known as the EU ‘butter mountain’                                                                 cow is one of the most reliable ways of    on behalf of the EU, said Britain would
              Nestle and Dairy Crest, have        (‘wine lakes’ were another manifestation                                  Peter Mandelson         lifting yourself out of poverty,’ says     like to see them abolished.
              claimed £126m of taxpayers’         of the same problem). But after a barrage                                 agreed to Europe        Thurston, who is trying to compile a          ‘We would prefer that export refunds
Three BIG problems with the CAP:

        1. It’s Expensive

       2. It’s Untargeted

         3. It’s Unequal
Three BIG problems with the CAP:

        1. It’s Expensive

       2. It’s Untargeted

         3. It’s Unequal
Growth of the CAP budget
€ billions                            EU-10                                                  EU-12                         EU-15                                                 EU-25                  EU-27
                                       ➔                                                      ➔                             ➔                                                     ➔                      ➔
    60

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

     0
         1980
                1981
                       1982
                              1983
                                     1984
                                            1985
                                                   1986
                                                          1987
                                                                 1988
                                                                        1989
                                                                               1990
                                                                                      1991
                                                                                             1992
                                                                                                    1993
                                                                                                           1994
                                                                                                                  1995
                                                                                                                         1996
                                                                                                                                1997
                                                                                                                                       1998
                                                                                                                                              1999
                                                                                                                                                     2000
                                                                                                                                                            2001
                                                                                                                                                                   2002
                                                                                                                                                                          2003
                                                                                                                                                                                 2004
                                                                                                                                                                                        2005
                                                                                                                                                                                               2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                      2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                             2008
                                     Export subsidies                                                               Market support
                                     Direct aids                                                                    Rural development
EU Budget, 2007-2013

                           Admin

  Jobs, growth,              6%
security, justice,
 foreign policy,
  overseas aid,
                                   43%   Farm subsidies
climate, energy,     51%
 environment,
R&D, science &
  innovation...
Farm subsidy expenditure, 2007
               € billions
60
         52
45


30


15                12.8
                                   ?
 0

        EU       National   Regional & local
Three BIG problems with the CAP:

        1. It’s Expensive

       2. It’s Untargeted

         3. It’s Unequal
Proposed EU Budget: 2010
Photo: NASA
Photo: Laura Leon / IHT
U*0%&)#6#O#U3';)&#&*594#+).*O-,/%&,3#.),:';+#5,-#2)#)X/&).)38#&*59#*-#2%//)&13*)+4#2'/9#*-#+()5*)+#,-:#*-#,2+'3%/)#-%.2)&+<#
                         Y9'/'Z#R9&*+#>,-#F;,,84#A)#E3*-:)&+/*59/*-0[B%//)&138#R'-+)&>,/*'-#$%&'()<#


LTT4# B%//)&138# R'-+)&>,/*'-# $%&'()# (%23*+9):# ,# 2''C# ,*.*-0# ,/# *:)-/*18*-0# Y&*.)# B%//)&138# W&),+#
W+J# *-# $%&'()# ;9)&)# 5'-+)&>,/*'-# )11'&/+# +9'%3:# 2)# 1'5%++):# ,+# ,# .,//)&# '1# %&0)-58<# YBW+# ,&)# ,-#
,3#+)3)5/*'-#'1#P.('&/,-/#B%//)&138#W&),+#*-#$%&'()4#/9)8#,&)#*:)-/*1*):#'-#/9)#2,+*+#'1#/9)#(&)+)-5)#'1##



                                                            !"#
“In conclusion, the current
system fails to deliver value
for taxpayers’ money. The
underlying lack of logic in
the current direct payment
system, with no link between
                                   Through
                                  the green
subsidies received and          smokescreen
public goods delivered must
be urgently addressed.”
                                  How is CAP cross compliance
                                   delivering for biodiversity?
BirdLife International,
November 2009
Cross Compliance:
   geing paid for obeying the law

“Many, if not all, standards are likely to have
been legal requirements for some years before
cross compliance was introduced in 2005...
...the overall value of the Single Payment [is] in
the majority of cases…likely to vastly exceed
the total related costs.”


Institute for European Environment Policy, 2007
Cross Compliance in Scotland, 2008

                   Number of
                                 Amount
                   payments

   Subsidies        48,603     €541 million

Cross compliance
                      310       €203,121
    breaches

   Proportion       0.6%        0.0004%
Targeting policies to objectives

        Objective                              Policy
                                  Incentivise ecological performance;
  Preserve natural resources
                                       regulation: polluter pays

                                    Target poorest rural households;
  Safeguard rural livelihoods
                                   invest in economic diversification

                                      More open markets; skills,
Reliable, affordable food supply
                                     knowledge & new technology

                                  Income support for poor households,
      Preventing hunger
                                       food stamp type policies

                                    Skills, marketing, protection of
    High quality production
                                          intellectual property
Three BIG problems with the CAP:

        1. It’s Expensive

       2. It’s Untargeted

         3. It’s Unequal
Top 18% of recipients
get 85% of the money
82 % of beneficiaries get
   less than €5,000
Direct aid, € per hectare - UAA, 2013
600



500



400



300



200



100



 0
      BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
Harvesting cash
on Anglesey
€27,286 / hectare




M & R S Rogers,
Bodrida Brynsiencyn
Wales: SPS Rates, 2008: Top 5

    Recipient         Municipality    € / ha

H W & E E WILLIAMS      PWLLHELI      44,535

                       LLANFAIR
 M & R S ROGERS                       27,286
                     PWLLGWYNGYLL

    TG HARRIS            DYFED        26,848

 W L RAYMOND &
                     HAVERFORD WEST   26,008
   LAWRENCE

 E R OWEN & SON        HOLYHEAD       21,814
Wales: SPS Rates, 2008: Boom 5

Recipient    Municipality   € / ha

 JDF JONES   CAERNARFON      1.48

 RL JAMES    CARMARTHEN      1.14


HG MORGAN     NARBERTH       0.75


ML THOMAS      CLYDACH       0.36

 DT OWEN     CAERNARFON      0.01
Wales: SPS Rates, 2008

€ per hectare   Recipients   Proportion
   500+           1058          6%
  400-500          982          6%
  300-400         2602         16%
  200-300         5376         32%
  100-200         4815         29%
less than 100     1908          11%
“The payment rates defined in
entitlements vary greatly depending
upon: the historic claims record of the
2005 applicant in the period 2000 -
2002, any National Reserve award,
the volume of Milk Quota held on 31
March 2005, and the Tonneage of
Sugar Beet Contract held in 2005.”
Direct aid, € per farm worker - AWU, 2013
14,000



12,000



10,000



 8,000



 6,000



 4,000



 2,000



    0
         BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
Average rural development spend, € per hectare - UAA (2013)
250
                                               1,032



200




150




100




50




 0
      BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
How to spend it
- Ecological farming:
 uplands, organic farms...

- Marginal land at risk
of abandonment

- Invest in knowledge and
skills: resource use,
marketing, diversification

- Measures to address price &
income volatility
EU Farm Income Growth
                                                          2000-2008
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"#$!%&&'!()*+,-./-*0.!1$0*!!

                                                                      "#$#%&'(#)*!&+!*,#!-./012%*2/-%!0)1&(#!0)!*,#!34567!
                                              &$#/!*,#!68889688:!;'<!'#/0&=>!0)!*#/(?!&+!-))2-%!1,-).#!;@<!-)=!12(2%-*0$#!./&A*,!;6888BC88<!
             15%                                                                                                                                                                                             130



                                                                                                                                                                         10%
             10%                                      9%                                                                                                                                                     120
                                                                                                              9%




               5%                                                                                                                                                                                            110
                                                                                                                                                      4%
                          Cumulative growth




                                                                                          1%

               0%                                                                                                                                                                                            100


                                                                                                                   Annual growth
                                                                     -3%
              -5%                                                                                                                                                                                            90
                                                                                                                                                                                              -5%




            -10%                                                                                                                   -9%                                                                       80
                                      2000            2001           2002                2003                2004                  2005              2006                2007                2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
234!3*56+7+580.!9!:5-*,$;!<-*57/0/
A post-Fischler selement for the CAP?

Redistribution is politically toxic, but...

- Phase out historic entitlements
- More conditionality on area payments
- ‘Public money for public goods’ rhetoric
- Price/income volatility measures - optional?
- Budget cuts - 30% by 2020, but how?
- Co-financing - compulsory, rates vary by
measure and by country
Thanks for listening!

       Jack Thurston
   Co-founder, farmsubsidy.org

   jack@farmsubsidy.org

Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook

  • 1.
    The Future ofthe CAP: An Independent View Agra Europe Outlook for Agriculture 16 March 2010 Jack Thurston Co-founder, farmsubsidy.org
  • 3.
    If citizens knewhow the EU spends €55 billion a year on farm subsidies... Would they approve?
  • 4.
    Our method Freedomof information Good stories + + Beer Investigative Public debate policy reporting
  • 7.
    6 | |BUSINESS Business & Media | 21.05.06 CASH COWS WHAT IT COSTS THE TAXPAYER TO DESTABILISE DAIRY MARKETS British export subsidies, by Export subsidy granted, by company, 2004 and 2005 destination country, 2004 and 2005 Fayrefield Foods* £22,149,818 Philpot Dairy Products £21,957,002 SAUDI Dale ARABIA Farm* £19,391,504 £2,147,003 INDIA £1,244,914 Nestle UK £7,442,672 JA N APAN UAE BANGLADESH £1,24 273 £ 44,2 ALGERIA £6,016,605 £3,479,499 £9,413,948 TMC Dairies EGYP YPT (NI) £6,421,069 MEXICO £3,03 340 ,031,340 £7,714,200 PH IPPINE PHILIP NES JAMAICA JA AICA £1,7 ,901 ,708,9 £2,296,9 7 £2 296,987 OMA OMAN Hoogwegt £4,660,97 ,660,973 International £6,016,872 SUDAN THAILA D HAILAND IVORY COAST IVO £3,906,970 £6 06,805 £6,706,80 VENEZUELA £5,722,515 722,515 Lakeland Dairies £2,274,752 (NI) £4,863,754 NIGERIA £11,782,308 IND INDONESIA ESIA £2,94 8 £2,947,118 Eilers & Wheeler Sales £4,009,257 Meadow Foods £3,335,750 KEY F Uhrenholt Dairy £3,084,188 *includes subsidiaries £1 to £4m £4 to £7m £7m+ £0m 5 10 15 20 GRAPHIC: CATH LEVETT PHOTOGRAPH: ALAMY SOURCE: FARMSUBSIDY.COM Who’s creaming off EU subsidies? Exports of cheap European dairy products are crushing the livelihoods of developing world farmers, writes Heather Stewart ritish-based exporters, including known as the EU ‘butter mountain’ cow is one of the most reliable ways of on behalf of the EU, said Britain would Nestle and Dairy Crest, have (‘wine lakes’ were another manifestation Peter Mandelson lifting yourself out of poverty,’ says like to see them abolished. claimed £126m of taxpayers’ of the same problem). But after a barrage agreed to Europe Thurston, who is trying to compile a ‘We would prefer that export refunds
  • 14.
    Three BIG problemswith the CAP: 1. It’s Expensive 2. It’s Untargeted 3. It’s Unequal
  • 15.
    Three BIG problemswith the CAP: 1. It’s Expensive 2. It’s Untargeted 3. It’s Unequal
  • 16.
    Growth of theCAP budget € billions EU-10 EU-12 EU-15 EU-25 EU-27 ➔ ➔ ➔ ➔ ➔ 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Export subsidies Market support Direct aids Rural development
  • 17.
    EU Budget, 2007-2013 Admin Jobs, growth, 6% security, justice, foreign policy, overseas aid, 43% Farm subsidies climate, energy, 51% environment, R&D, science & innovation...
  • 18.
    Farm subsidy expenditure,2007 € billions 60 52 45 30 15 12.8 ? 0 EU National Regional & local
  • 19.
    Three BIG problemswith the CAP: 1. It’s Expensive 2. It’s Untargeted 3. It’s Unequal
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
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
  • 24.
    “In conclusion, thecurrent system fails to deliver value for taxpayers’ money. The underlying lack of logic in the current direct payment system, with no link between Through the green subsidies received and smokescreen public goods delivered must be urgently addressed.” How is CAP cross compliance delivering for biodiversity? BirdLife International, November 2009
  • 25.
    Cross Compliance: geing paid for obeying the law “Many, if not all, standards are likely to have been legal requirements for some years before cross compliance was introduced in 2005... ...the overall value of the Single Payment [is] in the majority of cases…likely to vastly exceed the total related costs.” Institute for European Environment Policy, 2007
  • 26.
    Cross Compliance inScotland, 2008 Number of Amount payments Subsidies 48,603 €541 million Cross compliance 310 €203,121 breaches Proportion 0.6% 0.0004%
  • 27.
    Targeting policies toobjectives Objective Policy Incentivise ecological performance; Preserve natural resources regulation: polluter pays Target poorest rural households; Safeguard rural livelihoods invest in economic diversification More open markets; skills, Reliable, affordable food supply knowledge & new technology Income support for poor households, Preventing hunger food stamp type policies Skills, marketing, protection of High quality production intellectual property
  • 28.
    Three BIG problemswith the CAP: 1. It’s Expensive 2. It’s Untargeted 3. It’s Unequal
  • 29.
    Top 18% ofrecipients get 85% of the money
  • 30.
    82 % ofbeneficiaries get less than €5,000
  • 34.
    Direct aid, €per hectare - UAA, 2013 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
  • 35.
  • 36.
    €27,286 / hectare M& R S Rogers, Bodrida Brynsiencyn
  • 37.
    Wales: SPS Rates,2008: Top 5 Recipient Municipality € / ha H W & E E WILLIAMS PWLLHELI 44,535 LLANFAIR M & R S ROGERS 27,286 PWLLGWYNGYLL TG HARRIS DYFED 26,848 W L RAYMOND & HAVERFORD WEST 26,008 LAWRENCE E R OWEN & SON HOLYHEAD 21,814
  • 38.
    Wales: SPS Rates,2008: Boom 5 Recipient Municipality € / ha JDF JONES CAERNARFON 1.48 RL JAMES CARMARTHEN 1.14 HG MORGAN NARBERTH 0.75 ML THOMAS CLYDACH 0.36 DT OWEN CAERNARFON 0.01
  • 39.
    Wales: SPS Rates,2008 € per hectare Recipients Proportion 500+ 1058 6% 400-500 982 6% 300-400 2602 16% 200-300 5376 32% 100-200 4815 29% less than 100 1908 11%
  • 41.
    “The payment ratesdefined in entitlements vary greatly depending upon: the historic claims record of the 2005 applicant in the period 2000 - 2002, any National Reserve award, the volume of Milk Quota held on 31 March 2005, and the Tonneage of Sugar Beet Contract held in 2005.”
  • 42.
    Direct aid, €per farm worker - AWU, 2013 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
  • 43.
    Average rural developmentspend, € per hectare - UAA (2013) 250 1,032 200 150 100 50 0 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
  • 44.
    How to spendit - Ecological farming: uplands, organic farms... - Marginal land at risk of abandonment - Invest in knowledge and skills: resource use, marketing, diversification - Measures to address price & income volatility
  • 45.
    EU Farm IncomeGrowth 2000-2008 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"#$!%&&'!()*+,-./-*0.!1$0*!! "#$#%&'(#)*!&+!*,#!-./012%*2/-%!0)1&(#!0)!*,#!34567! &$#/!*,#!68889688:!;'<!'#/0&=>!0)!*#/(?!&+!-))2-%!1,-).#!;@<!-)=!12(2%-*0$#!./&A*,!;6888BC88<! 15% 130 10% 10% 9% 120 9% 5% 110 4% Cumulative growth 1% 0% 100 Annual growth -3% -5% 90 -5% -10% -9% 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ! 234!3*56+7+580.!9!:5-*,$;!<-*57/0/
  • 48.
    A post-Fischler selementfor the CAP? Redistribution is politically toxic, but... - Phase out historic entitlements - More conditionality on area payments - ‘Public money for public goods’ rhetoric - Price/income volatility measures - optional? - Budget cuts - 30% by 2020, but how? - Co-financing - compulsory, rates vary by measure and by country
  • 49.
    Thanks for listening! Jack Thurston Co-founder, farmsubsidy.org jack@farmsubsidy.org