1. a
3
<
a
o-
a
I.a
on ."
t*i
-;
lJIU
a
irl
t
E]
{,
J
j
-zt!
Z
c
;Z
fJ.l
'Lo
Ii.l
A
U
z
U
?
Lil
'Ti
F
a!*
LJ;tLJ
?,
f-l
a(n
J
t-i
U)rv
{-J
-)LJ
BFa
L)
-l
r-{)t)
{J
(1
L{
O(1
Ht-f
F4
tE(
A
(,I
F(
rp(
71
t-{
F]
F{
;)L)
rat'
t-(
rh
J

2. t
5. The Middle E,ast: climate change,
water insecurity and hydro-
diplomacy
Itzchak E. Kornfeld
tl|otlrtr Naturt' i.r.jrt.st t lttnti.ttr.t. bio!o,qr atrcl it!r'.sit'.,,. l ititt s ttli slta i.s. I?tLt
etilnol .t ct'i-lolii iter. llttt ctit!rt(il .pit! jtat ... l)o /r(,1 lt.,f.r *itlt trlotjter
:!(ttut(. Bttl iltut is jtt.st vltttt ttt,dt(: (ioitt.!.1
Frottt ttrr kttit*lcLlqe itl tltt' ,lttitl.zatl,s ttttl tlisurittinto.!t,. ot lllirrq.l. rll
lartrtr ttt tontlut,ltetttl tluir t,.t.sr:ttL e . tt e,rt lltottglr r( li,l t .tt,r tl
y'i,1,r'ylt ti t ,' -11:t :lt, 1l
INTRODUCTION
Durins the 1 990s. scholarship aboul $,ater security, abounded.' Hou,ever.
it nrs at thc turn of this centLrry ancl in{o its second clecade that
e:rpltr-ation abated. This lack o1'stLrdS,'is disquir'ting since the u,orld's
ri alel seculitl, has certairrlv rvorscned. given our nndcrstandilr_s r)1' the
I Totn Ilcll. Oio'.Siri'rrlr/ Dtpt,ttrl.' ott Figlrtitr,q ClirrttLtc Clnttqc. Op - I:rt.
Hich Corrntlv NL''s (SL'pt. lE. l01l). arailable at: hftp://rvwu.hcn.org/*,oli/our-
.Llr i al dcpcnds-on-iishtirtg-clilnatc-chani:e. (Qrolill-g Unitt--ti Statc-i Prtsident
IJamck C)hurnu ).
I Rabhi Nachnran trl Bratzlln r1l1)-1Eltl). Ilre lttrttls rt.l'[)isrrtfinillnqes. in
Sl.Lt, S-totttES (Eliezcr Steinnran. urr. & r-d. rn)ditted)) (in Heblcs,. translated
br thc lruthor). Availalrle nt: htlp:iil'u.d:rirt.:ic.illdarit/historl'/hlsidut/hrr'slrivl-1.
htm.
't J'he rnost prolific atithor during that peliocl n,ls Titornas Hcinrer-Dir.on.
5ra c.q.- Thtrnlts Honrer-Di:.irrt. Eirtintttrtit,tttal Scrilrrn' Luti Gloitii! .!r'i'rrllir'
t l99i): Thonras Horntr-Diron.
-l'ltt'
,l,.rl: t'l Globtl Yuter br.s. in Fr.inurt: rH
D V,-tl--R 10. 1:l (Sarah Flenrrng eti. l99St tcxplainrn_u thut severul fuctlrs -
E_::.r'pt's clepcnclcncc on the ile. irr 'historically turbLrlcnt' rclalionrhjp s ith
Sudlrn. "rnd its sicnitlcantl. urcilter p.icl ntakc the Nilc Ilir,el'biLsin one of thc
i'err places rvhcre crlttcelns icqtrdinq,t $lle! ar ilrJ nirt ttnfolrncledl.
t-l

3. sl Gl,thttl tttrii,ttil]1(il1(il ltt t!l it r t tr.tilit(1.
morlnting irriracts of clit.trate clrangc.i spale ol ri|ougirts.: aild poteuliiLl
for u,ater telroiism. i posit thiit ii onc docs nt)t eonicrrlllatr or- dcpict tl're
pr(](L-c1ion oi''irler rcsolrfcLrs in tr'r'ms of a stlltegic securitl,th|e;rt. ()ne
rnirscs thL- oPportnnitv of nrobilizirig peerples lnr,l ;ropLili.Ltion,s to errplov
p|ec|tLltionar)./ lreasLrrcs in rir-ti"t to :al'r'-euai'tl P|ecroLrs ptrtablc 'ater i['](1
r'ir.er basins lot- curr-rrtt artcl l'ututt-' Sen!'ritti(]n.
lir this ciraptc-r'. Iadclress issues en{euclei'er.1 br clirnatt: clialrgc iinrl the
F)otantial tbl ctinflict over scilrcc 'rlcr lcs()r.u.ccs. rvhich iikely will criuse
slraiegic plobienrr i'or naiional lLncl t'orlcl secLirit,. Thr- tocus herc- is on
t,o scpxratc ,aicr []itins. orte sub-sull'lrce urcl onc i'ipltlilrn. in th*
Itliildii' East. ls 1l-lc irrchetvpes. J-he tu,o brrsins iirt: ( l) thi: Tigris-
lrLrphrales Rivcl Syst.-rr. s'hich coLrrs-s thlourh Tur-ke1. Svrilr anti Ir.rc1:
lin<j (r) the {oLrnlain or}'alkon-Tantaninr Aclr.riler-beturren lsrael antl the
Pak'stiniarr:" rr,lro lire on the Wcst Blnl: oi'the.lorilan Rivcr'.
A/ATER SECURITY AND VATEI{ DISPUTES
,1 tlti;t.< r'orttltr;.,:t,ii rtl ttrtt t'lctnt'ttls iltkt nutt'rl lttt., itL't ttstLri!.t tiit,ir r otitlto.t-
itiott itt JltL,tittttt'itl !ls 1trL.:cttt (,.ritlr7ac. ll (.ilctlit'i.: llteit'.lort tttl
ilL'i(:..ii(t/('(! 1)r' 11t r)il ii ('.!!('ri('r'. ir tlt'it,,iltlt t,tt rlit tti';rLtu.' .f i:; ttr0
t (jJ1!l()illtll l)iil't dn(l til(it t tiilll)ir(tiit)tt.r
For thc puri)osL-i of this chupter'. *,ater.securiiy,is delinetl 'ils ihc
alailability ot'rn lcccptable rlLrantit,r'lncl qLrl[1] crl'u'aicr for.hea]th.
- Pdtc!-l{. CIcicj.. iitL'i. ltr tl Pt:ittl in rlie ,'litlilla East. -1(r E'lRO
{F-1'7 (Apr. 1i)9J}: Ashok SiirLin-'ilrt .ilt /lrlr'r'Brr.rrl lttititrtitt,. -kto llutit
Cottk.;.'litr L.irtlt Rrotlt.ll SAiS Rrr. 193 (l1.i0lt. und Antsrile K. Tctrttsgrti-
Ct,lV,tt r.. CH,r-'(;r, trr Crt:.t i-tr, tl J,i.:-sitrs Ll,rni,n,r l:tt()1 SoL iL|ri?. EIIIIoPt.i
.-D NoRTIII:R KI,i' -+5 (li)10) lreilahli rt. i-ittp:,//u'*ll.ialir.ni:./pLrhri.app/
:0 I-_il /:0 t-_i.l.p(jl
: S.rr, {.,rirlir1l.r. Ll Neu s Cinlr'e. itii J)tttLrL!ltt littt:ti.til', irr,: itrlt!* idt. [.'N
(-riilr.litt lrtit'trtitt'ti C'!inrirtL, ll,iititt 1,,ug. 1l. l01l) rvliilitLrlc rt: htrp://
u u ,,i'- Lrn.tiltl:rPps/ne,,,,':/stor-r,.asp /cri :l D=-ll7 iIr&Cr'=clinrirte &Cr I =rlrtrught#.
L-'l2R"lXX.8pi. t'Clirrlite ehanre is prolcctcil to incrr-ii;e thr ti.qLlcnc_,. inte Il-
sit',,. i.rnd clLrllrtion r.rl' dr0u!irl.. ',i ith irnpsct: il]r nriln-! sect(]r':. in plrticuill iooi{.
,il(.r. rn(l cners' . s:ritl Wor-liMeteurrrloqicli Or.ganizrtron {/lO) SeciellLr, -
Gcrnerxl )'lichcl .larr-uuti in I plcss rtlc.t:c. 'Wc' nedtl 1() rlr() e rLu:Lv ti-Lrttt a
pieccnr*a1. cri:i-.-th rr.'n lrpproech iriril tle,, r'lop inie{rated nsk-brsetl Irutir)nill
rh trtrght polrcir-s.. t.
" Rrbbi 1r,:he bcn lliLiruon lNliiinronidc:). loHEFI H r. Nr-t LicHItt (TiiF-
Cutot, ro rltL PLRirLf.ED) Purt 11. Proporitic,n XXi (untiaterl). ln Hct-.re*. *ilh
r-rttplilsis;rdtltd.
Tlte LliilLllt: l:utt. t !itirrii.-
iirt'lilt,,,,tl<.,'.,, )lctt1. . :.
ol' u'ater-r-eiatr-'tl risks t() ir.
illrrticLllrrlv the Liniterl Si.,.,' -
I S,rl 'rr |.riilr. LIr.l)r.t.'
L'.:lli1rl3. I, .t'c ".
r'(L;()lt ',1- tl:e I ttiL.',1 ,.,'. .. :
iriri, rltr-c ld jLrdicntl:cl (r 4. '-
trrclr. .ithott.Llt llt.-. .',-"
open contlict. their lengih .-
Ir.dc|rl iJ:tct'ti. r.rn jci l, ,:
oYef ilttef.
Lives of 'fheir 0$'rl
Incieed. ciisllLrte s. Iike th' ,.. ,
(Ganges).s nncl the lntiLL'.
1950s. 196(ls;ind 197o'. -
-r'tlllit t:. ltttrl,llltr'r':. li,.-
'rt'rr' .rkirr i., rrrilur' :l'.r1..
.l;i',rrltr.. n,rl r.r,il 1,,.t.,i:
Northcrn '1crico. the -ir,-- .
li[ ',1 tltc p1,rr11[i,,i .t,',
1,'r'6r'1ct. :1. t;lt ,,
nror-lefirlzliti()rt. tlteir It,'.- -
pi-erious Yeiir:. lintl :0 r'.
strilin on citing /litir.ii.
tl-re [-riittrl rrtion.' ]: -'
/ Dlr iil Clc-r antl C,.-. "
Gtotilt (ti1(l Dc,cl()pinr'ri. (
'ir[1 1."1.1.1.1,' 1l 1.
.L.:ttrl.r. | .,1t1 ,1',:1.,:- I
.1, .1, t.,t. l,t lr,. l't
1,'111 t11s1..1./,lj,l'].1.:I(lLr., .
(-r,tlliir t I l-l('ld-'il+B:, 1: . .-
flt, r),:41. ' ll /i, i , ;
l{t,,( l'r,,t. . I tst.,,'...
kc'-;,r'Jirr:- trti' -
tt., ln.l;t' 11 ,, Ir- '
;i:,tl rJ,'.,' 7t. t ' I
id
:l
r -:tr
a
I
.{
i
1
j
_l
-l
-'.t
j
:
,:"
_
_tl
l(r I () ),
l" 5t'.' i.(.. Linttc.l
tttittt C2til.: - (j,,tt! ,.
.
Lt
i
n
-t
-t
- --i
'a
'_{
I
)
4
'a

4. 'l'ltc
:llttldlt' L.titt i lirutttr: tltr.rtt'4t'. 'til(t in.cLi!t'iit artil lttitrtt-li|ft,,rrrtc t S-i
:rc'iihoods. ecos)'stem anrl prodr.rction. coulllc(l with an rcccptairle lcrvcl
,,:,,rater'-r'elrted |isks t0 peoplc. ernironnrc'r]ts und cconLllllics'.; Histor.
:irticuiarl,ti-re Ljnited States Supreme CoLIrt' casc la'. tcllcrhL's us that
.'Srii or pacilic ilisputes ovcl'rvatcr cun i"ler'rrlvc into haitlcs l'oyale. Fol
J11niple. two cases rvhich carnc to tlic CloLrlt. fl'onr the sorLti-nvesteln
.aSion of tlie Uniteil StiLte,s. &rur!ns v. C'rtlorttlt,',rnd Ari-otitt v. Culi.1ot.
.,i.1. ele ncljudicated over penocls that lastrd l0l arril il6 l'cars rcspcc-
.r.,rlr. Althoush these disputes vrre seltled puciticirlll'. rathei' thlin bv
.rtn contlict, their lcngth clernL)irsirate! ho$'sorereiuns. eL-n tiro-se in a
::r[-r'al systrrn. cari -gcL
]ockcd into lc,ng-sianding and intrectablLr conl'licts
i:r i1ll.r.
Lir es o['Their Ou rr
i:-,.icld. ili:irutes. Irke those Lrctrvecn India ancl Pakisllit over tire Girnglr
Lirir!.-rt.'rncl tht- lndus.'r tlLke on lives o1'their ou,n. Houevei-. 1n tirr-
v-i{lr. i9(r0: and 1970s. *en inlo the l9S()s and the 199()-s. thc.rc
-,-,nilicts. lnd oti.rcls, like tirrise oler thc l,lekong;Lnd lhc Nil.'Rircls.
...;ir' akin to 11'rinor' -Jlats. as coinparcd '.o thc preset-it. Toda'y Llrtralentins
.,::,-ruoirtr. rl)t :e f n he rctol'ore. abortrtci itclt-r:s tirc soulhett.t Linitccl Stlte..
,irrhr-in [.-rico. the N'lidr-llc'Eust rrnd ccntlu] .{}iicii. The-se ure ju:t tire
.r rri thr. proreibial qlobal rr,ail-]rng iceberg.
lore rr,, cr'. as tha ir,orlrl's r-ler eloltinq coLrnirics ntovc cltt,icL torr uLalt
:r-.i)riernizrlti(ln. their-peoplcs rvill Lrse rnorc u';!tcr thrin thr-1'did in
:rir lLrur relis. und srr *,i11 ihesc countri*s' cconontiesl llLrttirtg lLrr-ther
..rriirr on eristinc 'tter rcsources. Givcn the push for the aicliievernent (.)i
.:-.r L nite.i atitrn: I{rllennrLrrr.i De r elopntent Gorls (iUDGs)r" lnd
-
Deriil Crcy ud CliiLrrlia W, )i;lciof. Siuk rr'.lrllin.' liirlir- -ltcLrrirr ltt;
,,',riii iintl Dt,tt,it.itiittit. !.) !irlR PoL'',' )-15 {l()(17r.
' -ith rt!lirll la thl. ionl-lict .cc ,!:rt(ruil'..lr.rstin.: 'h-cadii,tll .t ,h Sitalcllt
.-r.rriiJ- {'()nt) ii)tLttit,! i-.ii rrti.: in tlu, Otiyoitr,4 'utci ('on.flit r [)tilr tt'it Btiit3lLt-
-.ii ,inil Irtiiiu Tt ir' (ll ,,1't)i.. tl01)9) ur,aiiahle uL: hltps./,'*ikl.r.uit.tults.etlLL,'
- , ,:r f iuc-ncc,/cljspllr leclLr lrp.-rliu./ContlibLrting+FrLcttlt':+i rr+i he+Orttoilts+ uler'+
rl.r;l1ljij14Bstg,c-cn+Banlla.iesh+antl+lnijilr: lolrlin.rn-iird IlizlnLrr Rlihrtnrrtn.
l:.' (itrtiqt.s lYirttr Crtittiili: . L'rlttlturtlllr',1rt;h.rt.r oi 1977 ,qrt'crtit'ttl trit.i
.,ra'l-rc.!t'. I AllERisr.,o-i 19.: (1006).
Reglrrling thi' conl'iict. r.d...(.. Atnol Shernl. Iitdiir rirr,l Poki.sttrn I't'til
t t i lrttlrrt l'tLtci.t: [:i<ii; T!ii,rrtt'tis Pttct' 7ali.r ,r.r ].;!utttrtltoti rtrqttt'.rli ,rblf ni
' ,, i.)rt; Nr,rr Dclllr'r Pit;]i lt)t' rt lTttlrot'lc,'tt'it l'!trrtt. $r..rLt- Sl. .1. t'Iar'. -llt.
-
:i)r.
.r,r, ,..g.. Unitc-d lirir,rrs Dcrelopr-i.rent irri-rsliulllc. lf iilL'trrtitrnt f)tt tlolt-
.,,t (.)iiLtl.; (ioul 7: Et'trtt [:rititrtruittnttl Srr.:tuinitltili/t available lLt: hitp:i/

5. lL'L'cltl rliling h i()ulis. irre ltt.lrt.tg llr,' StrPrc-ntc Cotrrt ol l:r'lre l : lO l I
,lcuisron l'intlirrr: thlrt lrntli'r' t trth I'r'lrt'li llrrr lin.j inlcr-nirli{)nill lrLtlilun
ii::ht' lur... tLcr.t' j. ir rigirl tr) ltcr. Iui( .ili llrirl tl.rt-rn'clre. ln rhc
lro.iliott - r)ntL' rrtrttltl sltr Lrnctt', ilhlt irl her irt.l lo lr1'1r11rlc |o1111-rl. ,1p.1
. ii'lLtt rr irtcr' l,)r' tltt'ir e ilizi'tts. -,:lirt. thc.c PI1g111111re nlr rr iil l)lae c .!rellt!-r'
irl!')Llr'!'()n l()r'r'lrnent t().rr'ecnt thc clllrllt-rtrr'i'f l'il1(ling srrllleitnt
,..rli'r'r!:{rLlret-: li,t tlt.'it IeoPle. lrgriittlttrtc lrn,.l indLt.trr.
Cirrrqii111j1,,111). .tliltr ltnrl inl!'r'nlti()11iti lrrirnllillir)n. inr'lu(ling tltt
rri ltl I-ic:rllh Or'.-unr,,;ltron r Il()) utrJ n'rtr-!rir.nlit)cn1:rl r)r.gnnt/irliol):.
riill irccd ii) tin(l ()luti(lns lo thc plolrlenr rrl tlre itnt.rit tlclrllr irl l.
nriiir,,n pCoPl3 ;,11,,,, 11, l.(r rrrrlli,rn r,['slronr ilrr'ehi]rllcn -. rilto perislr
lr,rnr uolttlultinlrlL'(i i.itcr. I glrre nlrlcr.i-tr',r'nL: inte.tinlrl .lirt'lrrc. Llclt ii
'rlti'l(,onri.ris. lrttri luck (]l l)r'()i)r'r- lrr)ituti()n. l lrir i: plrrlirulir] tru!' in
,.,..'.',1 Lln(ip.r)r!r'n1(lr,/!(rirll.hlrrrl t -l-lr|gcl 1.. Rt'tltrcc lri lrlrlt tirt' I)r.()l)(,ririrn ,,1
:.. riIlC ir.ltrrll rir.tltirtlrl-le tLc.,:., tr' -ittc rllinl.in-i .rl(l iinrl ir.Lia :tl)ll.1tili)',
ir.r:inr,llci lD(; ( irr;11 . t. ,r, ,rlrr,. L. Di,t, i ()l I-a(i. L S{ r( . .ilril..
1 r r r .'.iLi I)l:l.i,)P1, 'i (;()1 llf:,,{)iti l{l{)-- irr -. r[)i!uni! I)r'()jlc
'. ..,ri,!'liti,,iu.:. llle l)l,1){)ttirrn r,l D1'1rIl11 rh(re i0e('nl('i. jr''. tjtlirt trI. Llrrli.ir-.r
' . hitt'r'[ l'lt)('irt](l .'l)l5i
Il(--i t)51-<,1)(. !,o,i,rii,tlr .1/)i/ l/(r(rr,/. t i tii. '
i'.,ttt r ( ,,,ttnti://,/r( / t!
l,i,t, i L,itttlr .tit'!inin1tli,,n (lt)l I l. .lrr'tiecs rrrll l)rL,elrcci;r r[1.;t.r. [;rirr.r.r'h,'i-
,r. i ',,.e1.11,,11 pr.'.itling.
- In ltltl'. ihc H() clintitlC,l lltirl nlr)r. titltlt l.l lr;1i11r11 |g1r|11. rrrklrritlt
..,. Jlr.rit.jrrn!.in-: ,.Jlui .1nri tlrlrt 'l (, lrilit(,n lrc()Plt lt-rrt lt,, :lnlllrliL)n lrIl,,,!cn
i, iil,c'. lirrtrr'.r,q11 /'7i,17i,rr'/i),,.ii)ir.BB[-c.,irlSr-ft.-i.]O{)()tlLratlahle
.. hitr. ''r'. rr hhe irr iikrl,'hi/in_,lcItlrr :.1 1,.11(, lnr.
.i
h. 'll0 rrl',, ..tinrrt('
: r.,t :!t l,'lr!1 l. ttrrili,iit [r91,|li'111g rLril]LIrilr it,,n: ,iilrillre;rl tl].cir.c.. irtrltr.iin.r
.!','lr'i.r.'r.:th.hil,lrcrr hcli,',r tltt'u-lc rrl'1ril. nr(il ii iiilq'l'r1.;11. a,)ulttlle.
." . rli:lilt_t | (r rttilliirn (,.]t t){1
far Lcnl, ,,1 1lrt.r' tie.rth.. r,. ,.:.. iiI/t/.
it,,,,i:,',rii /)ii,,r',.;rr:rii;Lblr'itt: ltll|../;,,h().inl/,.il..ind;csctrr.ltt,lirg;;s3:r
:..:ltit'irti !'tl/ i Diilltllrri';r] ii'trt:cs r(|r'a'.,'nl .! nlirirrr ltcliillt Irrrlrlr'rtt Ur.lcrcl
, r'nr: r'()ttnlrics. ( onrcrratlirc c.lintltc' Irllrtr' lhr' .:lrrhlrl riclrtlr t,rjl ll'onr
...,r:ir,,..,i.ii'e:r.i. irl iih{)Lrt I() r}|lli,)D.1il,l;r- 1-,1 rc.ir ' i.--l -i nrriiirrn tlclili.rrr.
:.,iii.i1ri lhri ilnt(rn!:rll clrrrscr ol rntr'etiiru: ilirclrre tlcllhs ut,r-ltirrir!e. lrr.t rl
l:.,..J rl..:rtlt. (,r,16 ip ihrlcl1.C1 Ltl(l('t lri aii,.,)l:rLc.',. L t,-,p()ti lirLtn.!:
tt. ttL:itthct rrl Ierilllc iihaLtt.r(f(' l(r itttPt,"'.',1 :rler ()tu!t ill l()OI) ir ll
.. _.':in. l.l i.iiii,,rr -gl,,brlli l-hc niirrrher li i:rlr.rn,irrcrlcr'. u j1111,111 lrr'!a l
:!-, uri-'J fcleltc(l l-{7 rniliir,rt- rrltieit riIr.,.eni ilt) lltel(,ita'rrl JJ ntililorr
.-i lltu irritrpltrlthl,'l'igLrrc ttt l')()1)
'[-lte *itr:,ti,,D irilh -ll0l..rrl itnilitll()n r. iltttel.
.,,,-.1,!ilr irlnlirt tlr|gc tiriler ir nr.iD i)t,rnl,'.lcnirrl lrcn nrinirrrlrl:i{lrtilii()n
r.r,rltlr-. Itt,i ,,1 Lltttii 'titr't Alili -'.11 ('ltil,ir,,t ,: ), n /. /i1,r1,7r. $(
[_. r,, lLr. ]lXt(., irr.'illtl.l: irl l)llp:, i,.iii lLlr..nat.lru,'nc:ijt('ir!.1|
lr)r/.1 l,.i,51 lr).lltrn.
l li, .litltilt I ri.;i. . t,
rill ltse lterr' rlr.t,u-:it:-
glr,lrltl q it;t1)ipl. pl1r 1i. -
ir,'llr rrr,,r'lrl alrtl lririr'1...
'.llctr' 'rt,'.!' ,l.,rtlr. ,'..
I Il[ SCOPtl OF l-HF : -
.S AN.RCI_IET PF
'l'he lurpending l'atrr f)tli.
Ilr tlru i i:rl lt )il i. lliL, .
tltc ltetull or-avlrilll.lr' .lrr- .
- in thc litldlc [:ri.t r' i-,'
nlL'tcr il( 1 i.' 1 In ar,;lt;.,-
tlt.rtt ,i,'trhlt' lr{tilr tlt,rl , :
d.tr lherc s rll lrt li|l i:1. ..'.
lintl lh.'ilrli in tl:c ilntr)i-iit:
i ndu'tr].
. eritielrl lurt()r' Jn(i ()ita ..
i. lilL' tltal {hllt 1,, r} rL'irji...-
rhal)tcr' - I:rlrrl rrnd tlrL' I).r..-.'
r'tl(,)l1Jr:r tlrt' 1 irri.-l:irf it,
('tll) I)t ilt.gfilr.'.1 lt '.lili'
-
)f lrl. rr'lirlir, c lr r f -11111;i. s'
I rritu'd Statc:. []rrclt ol thr.r"' '
lltct-tclxlL'rl coDllit t .-iiit,,,. -
Irl c rti Iing r'ircun1sll.rnr'!'s. 1lri
RLltttnil1.* {rt tl1.' 511lr1q'1 i,,;
l( r'ellll r'hrt'l t't!:
t rllrort :rJl ol thc in,li., iJrr:
llllrl rit'll) .llir':l Itrrntrll'. ,'
caPrta itr l()lltl t.t'ilt'lllrli' .ri-
lllc:c Icirrii',clr 11)lrii.rrll, riri .
(rnntcnI trrtri it)lPittLe r,]t ilLIt.
lirlLllc [:;t:t :it](l 1)rtit ti:-
.t,r. Itt.rlt -1 sttirr;t.
i I 5hl)nli I-)nrur. /Ji,/ri,.li,',
.rr.r:i.,i,i. .rt illtlr: r '.,. ..rt. ii;
htrrr.
' Ihi(i.

6. ,.rael's 201 1
- ,nal human
-:rles in the
: :otable and
:-iae greater
:: sufficient
: ::uding the
:::n izations.
::*ih of 1.8
- .i no perish
::)3i SUCh aS
,.::li. true in
:: lilrtlon Ot
- -.:itation'.)
r '- .FF.URS.
-: Prosress
,: :: drrllar a
':,'tzer &
:::,r.{rbel.
t : , .'ildtide
, - ]rno_qen
: ,- ;'..rilable
.. :i:imat!-j
:.: . .::luding
'::; --.Illtries.
. . t-Ho.
ii-- -. ::.e;l:er/
,-- - l-r.il
'"-- ' .- liom
I ii:thr ).
).1rii of
- :,tund:
r , ,.iJS a
- ---3 t(r
'
-
:.iilion
:' - :. :ttuih
:: ::tr-!i(r n
- .-. _{rJL
-: .::am:
Tlrc Middle East: clitnate clrutrge, u,uter irt.recurin, antl ht'dr"o-diplontac'r 87
an age where droughts are becoming increasingly commonr3 dr"re to
global warming, particularly in the global south. The death 'burden' has
both moral and political implications for the governments of the states
where these deaths occur.
THE SCOPE OF THE PROBLEM: THE MIDDLE EAST
AS AN ARCHETYPE
The Impending Water Deficit
By the year 2050, the water deficit - defined as the difference between
the actual or available supply of water versus the demand for the resource
- in the Middie East is projected to be approximately two billion cubic
meters (MC141.r+ In contrast, the region's population is projected to more
than double from that of the present day.rs Thus. within thirty-seven
years there will be an inverse relationship between the rise in popularion
and the fall in the amount of available water for people, agriculture and
industry.
A critical factor and one that may be seen as the tail wagging the dog,
is the fact that two geographic areas that are the focal points of this
chapter - lsrael and the Palestinians; and Turkey, Syria and lraq, which
encompass the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin - are situated in what can
oniy be described as 'water deprived or water stressed' regions of the
world, relative to Canada, Switzerland. or the Great Lakes area of the
United States. Each of these Middle East basins has been the venue of a
water-related conflict. Although they are currently quiescent, given the
prevailing circumstances. the former water disputes may tlare up again.
Returning to the subject of water deficits, the trend is worrying, as was
recently observed:
(A)lmost all of the individual countries considered as part ol the Middle East
and Nonh Africa normally have access to less than 1.000 cubic meters per
capita in total renewable water resources. According to some global indices.
these relatively small amounts of available water may limit economic devel-
opment and impinge on human health. Even more concerning is that the
Middle East and North Africa region has the highest estimates of total
13 .See. note 4 supra.
ra Shlomi Dinar. Hytbodiplornac.v in the Middle Ea,rr, SAiSpHTRE (2008)
available at: http://www.sais-jhu.edu/pressroorn/publications/saisphere/2008/dinar.
htm.
rs Ibid.

7. 8E (iloht! t,ttrit ortntLntul lu)r tt! Lt L t o..'t ()dl.
r.,,ithclrarl,als ot renc ilble $lrrtet leoLlrccs. In other ,otds. coLllttrie s in i
rccion routinclv ertlact :ii:nilierntll' niore iiter tiun is rcpienishcd 1:i
natttnrl r.:siltttr'a. :r'
Fufihr'rnrtrre. in an cra ol slohal :anlillg thc ar,ailabilit)'of renL-i"r-lr--
'rrter reolrrccs. including ;rqui1;r recharsc. $ ill likcly dr'cline. Inrlcr.'
clil'nate ulodelsrT Foint to ar 'r'rilne r and (irier' 'iiddle East or,er the irir.
tlirr vears.rs Cornplicating thL' rl-sion's rr'ater scarcitv is the sliared nrrtLr:-
ol fi'e:hrvater'. Thc Mourrtirin Acluiter..r".lorclan Rivcr'. thc Niie Rir,er'^ ;,:.-
f-i_rris-Euphrates Rivels rrc orrlv a tcri'oi the international rvatel botlr;.
:hlrecl lrinong scverll lipar'ian statcs in this prilt of thc world.:"
"' Ibid. at l9
rr I{icirartl Seitgcl at rLl.. Nlotlel Pto.jt'r.tittrt.s o.l-urt lntnrittt'ni -l'ruliitit)t! i,
,lttit, ,r'itl Clinttrte irt S()utl1'e.t(nt Ntsrtlt Antt'tittt. .l i6 Se lLLt I lS l. i i '-
t1;r1 15. l(i{)7). ('(ll thc totai ol 49 indiviclual projcciion: conduct.'d r''ith thc
ntoricls. r'vt-r1 rlS earlv it: thc 202 l-10-10 period ... the sorLti.rcLn Eur,r:--
llcditcr|ancan-N'liddle Ea'l region iLlst'r etpe|ienccs A sL-cre dLltng.').
r' ,1;rrtin Htrcrling t't ol.. (.)rt t!t(' lnt rcd.(l l:h,tl!t(tlt .t. t:i ,llcrliiu riti . -
Drrttt,4ltt. l5 J. Ct-trtrtr- ll16 (l0ll). Thc llncl rr!,a unrun(ling thc '{edrLc': -
neiin Ser has r-rperiencctl ten o1'the ll drie'st rvinttrs sincc 19i.)2 in.jusi lhc ---'
l0 veur:. A chanqe in s'intr'rtinr.',lcditerranc'ln prc'cipitation tourril .l-..-
conditirrns has likelt occLrrr*ti over l9()l-2[il(J rihose rnagnitutlc ctnn()l -:
rcconcilcd ,ilh ir'ltenriLl variabilrtv rkrnc. Anthloll6gentc _rrecnliouse sii -: -
ac'i-osoi tirrcing l|c ke1'attributnbie tlrctors lirr lhis increr:cd drring. thrrugh: :
trternal rignal crplains only hulf of the dlvinq nregnitrrrle. Furthernrorr'. ..-
surfrcc tcn)peleturc (SST) iorcinq dtuing 1902-l()10 likelv 1-rlaved lltr irnpor:-
loie in tlrc obserrecl lvlcclilerr-arreun drl,ing. rind the ertcrnullv lirrcetl rlli _-
:irnrl likcl1' rlso occnrr through an SST changc' :ilniil.
l'' Slrlrlrri Dinlr. Hlrirr;rliplLtntrttt irt tlta htliillt Err.lt. SAISptti.Rtr. l9 (lt | .
I)inar r)otts that the {ountain or "arkon-Tanninirn equitcr: '(S)trctcht' i: -
ihc ridccs of tlte -lutic,r{ nl ancl SanrarirInl hill> to il-rc eat enci r.'acl.tc.:--
lvledirclruneiin coasl in thr- rve:1. In thc rrorth. thc urptler is hordered 1,,, ...
5L)Lltlk'rn slope: ol'the Camrel and lthc]
'fanninirll
Sttcarr.r. ln the :outh. :.
btirderccl l-r,r'the Be'r-r Sheva Vllley. -fhc rrrlrin llos oi 'trrer t() Lhis aqLrilc:
i'rom thc Rosh l{aA_t.in lncl Trrnnjnir.n Strcant sprinus.'
Art :Lquiicr is 'a p.-rnr.'lthle. ,lt!'r-conductile. uncler-grouirti iai,cr u'hich lr,,, --
possihlc llle crcation o1' nltural. Lllrclerg[ound r11eI reL'r oir-s igrourrclu'atci r. . .
watel'soLlICc ot the ticlrLilir is tl.rr'pcncrration ol'rainrvttr-r. antl oi'i|r'iqr..
trrrrofl-.' Intcnrationrl Llnion lol Conscli ation ()l -arrn'c (ILICN ). Dtt.t'ittiii
,Sttttrtt,s itttd llttlrtiils l-l iundttcd) arrri]ablc at: http:1./rlrnr'/.1/r.r.3,
1t r r b I i t tr r i r t r t s0L)/s t / i 07/ trr t t zI/tI i, _(. ( I o( .
r{) .Sli, e.,g.. Aat'on'1 . Wolf lr ul.. lrtttrttrliortttl R.itar Bu.tiu.r of tltt,I1'tl,i. :
lrr'r J. :trt( RFS. DF-v. 387. (Dcc. 1999) availeblc at: itnp:/,/g'srr.t-* -
bor-rntiiu,uaters.orst.L-r[l/publicutions lregistcr. (Listing ](r-l Intelnutiourl R .'
Basin:. ut 'l'rhlr- I).
il
{
4T
I
d
{
il
a
I
{
I
il
I
I
{
{
,ll
1

8. 'f lrt ,tlitldlt [:u.tt: <'linrtrt<. chctrt.gc, rttrttt' irt.sr't'trritt trtui lt.tlnt-tlil,kttttrtt.t S9
Since rr'ltel il,ailrbility is al thc cole of a developecl. thriving antl
stablL' govemlnent. thc states of thc {iLldie Errst nrusl cnrplo), potable
,ater sources etliciu'ntl1," and rnust llso bLrild cor)pcnitivc lcl:rtionsl'rips in
ortler to dcrelop. lroth c'f tectivelv as ri cll a-s envilorrrlc'ntall-v. thc,sc
trilnsboundarv res()urccs. Indeeci. a Unitr-d Nations plnel recently
obsei,ed that'the wor'ld's top ranked /i.rtr-r conllict hotspot is thc- Arah
resion. compriscd of'thc' N,lirldle llast and Noltl'i Africli ... r1
Irr orclel ti-r achrcve clevclopnrent goals. the N,liddle East's co-rlprrrian
stirtcs ri'ill neetl both to rccosnize antl to ilclnrit to lhc-rlsclrc-s that. where
u'lle r- is cone elnetl. the rc is no 's,inner take all' strrtL's),. liuther'. the
region not onlr' tlenruntl continLrcd 'hydro-diplcrnr:rcy'.rr but it is like-
u ise clcsper.ate lirr ridclitiorrirl rvrrte r sLipl)lies. Indeed. conscratiou meth-
ods are the urost inelprcnsive. prnctical alrcl Ionlr-tenn solutrons to the
valcr dctlcit ploblern. One eranrple is f'r'onr Israel. In 1985. the aglicLLl-
tural sectol cortsLrrleci applorir-nlitely ,!0 per cent ol Jsrael's u liter
,supplies bLrt contribLrted only 5 pel cent to the countr'-v's annLrll GDP
Witlr conserviltioll s/stcnl put into place ()'er a teu year pct'iod. b}' 199-i
the coLrnt,'.c agricultural sector i.rs stiil contribirting -5 per ceirt tr, irs
irnlruai CDP, birt lvas onl), cLrnsunrinc 5lJ per cent ot its r,r,ater supplre. ri
l? per cent clecline or a l.l per cent irnnuai decrease.r:
:t Ali-rtcr Dirl le. 'ly'r'r1i'o -dittlttrttut .t' Nettlt'i to i ('t'i irtth liitt:r 'tn .:.
R[]L''ftrRs.CO1 (,1lir. 20 l0 I i ) availrble at: http'//u'r.r '.r.:riter'.corn/irrriclei lt)l l/
0.1/10/us-clinratc-rvatc'r-iciLi S f RETlJlW6l 0 I I 0ilt).
The l!{iddle Eurt rnd Nonh Air-ica xrc the re,qions r.rro:t al risk ol contlict or.'r
L:rf('c illcr -Lrlnlic. tltcr :ititi. I'ttt ili:tr.'r) ir(,'3lcr ur'':lIc cr r:rrc...
Li.. stLrdies irrl)ir'cl thitt .10 trririotg ,r'ill ltt 'tLrtcr' .stutr'c itt 2025. ttp.frarrt )(t irt
l99L). EiqlltLCtt oftlttttr dt? in tlt! Llitltlla l:ttt utri Nttrtlt rlt'itrt. rtitlt Liltttr tut,i
[:g.t1tt ttntt.tn.t tltosa udtlt'tl t() illL']q90 li. t tltrrt ittcltrdr.s Lsrurl utttl Sontulitr .
( Erupltr:is acld.-ri t.
rr H) drr-,diplonlrc, ()r Hl,drcr-rliplontrcl, [ras bccn .lcl ine tl l 'riri.nlrl
cool-)cftition th:rt crcales rl1 nanrics of tranr-boundal,r' biisin L'cr)noniic rl':r'cltrp-
nrcnt throush integratcrl irtcl' tc-ollrcc nronrgcnrcnt.' clrnegie 1idri1.' Etr:t
Centr'r'. 7/rl Birrt Pt'utt,: llatltittkittg i,litltllt Eust lltrtr,r'(Jan. 20. 2t)ll1 areillblc
at: http./1. anrcl ie-rrtec.or!/cvent s/ lir=-l I 17.
rr Suki .johson. irtt,r.StrttssLl Re.qrort.:.; 7-ltt tVIidtllt,Ltr.tt,l 5'otttltei'n Aljitti
Glohul S,tlLtriorr. Oceusional Paper No l(r. Writel l-rsucs Stucll,'Cloup. School rrf
Oric'rtlal rnrl Al'r-icrrn StLtciics (APr. 1(l(..)9).Lt 11.,{r,irilable al: lutg.r'rLs,/uatcr-iooil-
irntl-tradc.l.itrrl lil lc=tl_li ieshdf.

9. 9(l Globul otvintrultottLtl le1 ut u L'ftt.:.:rourl.t
CASE STUDIES
In the Nlicldle Ilast water is lile itsclf.} For hundrccls ol'y'ears the cleselt
peoplei of that region struggled lor control of rvc-lls and ri/ers. lncleetl. in
the period prior to and cluring the First World War thr-: tbcal point ol'
many battles ias access to rAter. An example thet dlivcs horrie the point
of horl, prcciolls water !ras. anti remains. is thc sccnc' in the ntovic
'Lan,rence of Arabia'.r5 u,here Orriar Sharif's charactcr. Sheil Ali. kills
T.E. Lau,rence's guide because he drank trom Ali's nell. In realit-y this
rvoukl ncrl halrpen. as thirsty people rvere rvelconte to drink from one's
,ell. NL'/erthele,ss. in the 'liddle East. control ovcr ,ater rrnd its
allocation is the dorninant therne.'1r'
Horv deep is thc plobJen.r'i Toclu-v-. lrclm 'I'Lrlke1,, the North Atlantic
Treatl Organisation's INATO) soLltilern stronghold dorvn to the En.rirate s.
the states ot the {iddle Easl lre fl'etting aboul hor.l'the1'u'ill quench the
thirst of the additional millions born e:rch vear. find u'ater lbr their
nascent inclustries. arrd lor a-sl'iculture. the r.nain causc- ol rvater deplction
in the region.r,
The N,Iiddle East as an.,rchetype
In fact. the N{iddle East is the alchetypical Iocality rvhere strategic
problems. caused by' insutficient and contested rvatcr soLlrces. u,ill cause
hunranitarirn sLrft'ering and strilc. As used herein. the N4iddle East
encorrpasses the tbllolving states and/or rir,er basins: ( l) Isracl. Jordan.
thc Palcstinians rrnd Lebanor.t: (2) Turkey-. Syria and Iraq and tl.tc
-figris-Euphriries
River Sl,stemi aud (3) the Nile River Systern. rvhich
incorporates the White Nile ancl the Blue Nile. Each of these b;isins has
numerorrs uc'opolitical. legal ancl hl,dlologic issues that mLlst be resoll'ed.
in ordcr to tbrestall and/ol iilleviate the irr.rpending rvatel crisis they trrce.
Tr.r'r.l o1' thcse basins are erplored hele.
r+ ltzchak E. Koi'nl'eld. Trotrblt itr il4c:opotuntiu: Ctrtr,,nutricu Darer u ll'utcr
lYar llttncau lrur1. Stria, nrtd 7lrrkt.t'! 34 Er"Tt-. L-. R. 10.631, 10.f13-l (2(X)4).
r5 Ltrtntrr:e ol.Araltiu (Coluurbia PictLrres, 1962).
r{; Adcl Dalrvish. TtoubleLl lyut(:r..in Rivers ol l}loor1 (Dec. 3. I992) ar,ailabL.
.rt: http://wwu'. midcastnet,s.corn/u,irter(X)4.htm1.
'i Adel Darir.rsh. lYtisr Wrrrs: Tltt'Ne.rt illojrtr Conllio itt rite llitldle Eu.tt.
'lert of l-ecture at Lhe Gencl'a Confcrcnce on Enrironnrent ancl Qualin'of I-ifc I
(June I994) availabie at: http://u,u'rv.rricleastneri,s. cor.u/Walerrars.l',-tn-r.
'l-ltc'.'
Turker. S
The ccn,:-
sccuritr -,
The cor::
bet/ec:r -
liil LlpSti:-
Israel. .]r,;
Thc irrr".-
Israel ;r. -
that ni.. -
TIt.' :
o1' tltc:c ^
N{esopot-
System
'IWlar. '
lraq. t'..-
itrovisr' - "
2001. . -
Will th..'.
increa:.",-
Noii. -
Easter';. .:
ol'Att.,:
Euphr.,,.-
able v. .-
downsi:. -
theit c,,-
these ..-
that dc. -
the-ce -- -
etrlbt'e u
Tlri: :-
Iraq e:: - -
.rr R,
http://rr
- l. _
,r l:

10. r.'i-ii;u-a;) '-rf ]'ears the desert
Ti n: ,r -i rir.ers. Indeed, in
(;r'; 111 -:he tbcal point of
*Ec -- :-:'.3s home rhe Point
-:: i:3ne in the movie
is ' ::i=:.:,er. Sheif Ali' kills
srrr. r*ir
' 'aell. In reality this
|*.s,'.=.:,-r-:; :.r drink from one's
l*:
':::.: ]'..ef watef and itS
l
&,-.:':-.. :he North Atlantic
*,;=r. 1::'?n to the Emirates,
L**J, -. ,.0 :aer u'iil quench the
6i ;,,:,:- :l:rd u'ater for their
*,*:- -'t, .t of rvat'er dePletion
1:
..
:l
pr.* ..;;-:;r $here strategic
i#-: ; :::: iources, will cause
&: -.:ii::- the Middle East
sr= ...,.., I 1) Israel, Jordan,
H i-'::: end Iraq and the
k *,".: Rirer System. which
$ji,l :;i: of these basins has
8,,,.,-.r. ::i must be reSolved,
$.r:=:; ;:ter crisis theY face.
E: :a
];::i!t:-
-. !-nerica Deter a Water
: ,!.6i:. 10.633 (2004).
,;'.
'-aa.:
€
.':l:'
E
.i.i:
,e,
t!i:
t+
);;
:l:l:
,.,s-:':
,;+::l
-',$'
€
'1a:
g:
:9:
s.
.,c:
'f:'
,)iri
,'ii
.!il
:g!i
g
rB::
;*:
_ri
&i
,+
&,i
:
'*
*..
g:
!+.q,:
F:'
The Mirklle Eust: climate chotge, v,oter itrsecuritt antl hldro-diplontacy 9l
Turkey, Syria and Iraq and the Tigris-Euphrates river system
The central problem of too many international river basins has been the
security-threatening, unilateral practice of damming and diverting rivers.
The conflict during the early 1990s over the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers
between Turkey. Syria, and Iraq typifies the conflicts that develop when
an upstream riparian state unilaterally develops and dams a river.
Israel, Jordan and the Palestinians
The inequitable allocation of water from the Mountain Aquifer between
Israel and the Palestinians will be one of the more thorny security issues
that will need to be addressed in any conflict-ending negotiation.
The following section sketches out the water security issues that each
of these basin's riparian states faces.
Mesopotamia: Thrkey, Syria and Iraq and the Tigris-Euphrates River
System
'[W]ater has aiways been one of the major issues between Turkey and
Iraq, even since the Lausanne Agreement of 1923, and despite the
provisions of the friendship treaty between Iraq and Turkey in 1946.'a8 In
2001 , a reporter for Radio Free Europe asked the following question:
Will there be a Water War in the basin?2e He was of course ret'erring to
increasing tensions between Turkey, Syria and Iraq.
Noting that Turkey. via its Giineydogu Anadolu Ptojesi or South-
Eastern Anatolia Project (GAP) located in the country's southeast region
of Anatolia, was allocating to itself more water from both the Tigris and
Euphrates Rivers than its downstream riparian neighbours were coufort-
able with, that reporter also observed that Syria and lraq, the two
downstream riparian states 'must deal with the loss of water flow through.
their countries'.30 Moreover. he reflected upon the fact that '[i]n the past,
these states... attempted to develop water-sharing agreements to ensure
that downriver states do not suffer from the actions of those upriver. But
these accords have been difficult to achieve and equally difficult to
enforce,'3l
This problem is not new Beginning in the 1960s Turkey, Syria, and
Iraq engaged in development works along the Euphrales River. These
28 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Iraq Report (Apr- |.3.2001) available at:
http ://www.rt'erl.org/content/article/ I 343 207. htm l.
1e Ibid.
-30 Ibid.
-r lbid.
:xr :-i,- ,',: Dec. 3. 1992) available
E
i6,;.. j,.r:i:ri in rhe Middle Ectst,
*; nr:i-,s.,r:-l *nd QuatitY ol Life 1
*, -.. --:-,i.:ierWars.htm.

11. L)2 Glohttl otrirotultL'ntul ltv ut o o os:rtttd.t
include darns. liydropower proiects. waier reservoirs ancl irrigatiorl pro-
jects. Thc largesi ellort to date is'furke1,'5 GAP Project. When cornpleted
it rnav divert up to 30 per cent ol thc nrean ilttnual u'ater {'lor.i, ol the
Euphrates Rivr:r.:'l
Sirlilarly. Syria bLrrlt a number of danrs that torrred leservoils. These
included the Tabcla Dam ivhich lbrned Lake Assad. as u'ell as thc Baath
and Tishrin dams. all on the Euphrates. Each of thcse structurcs 'as
planned to dirert signilicant alnounls of wilter lor aqricr-tltural tlevelop-
nrcnt in the Er-rphrates Vallel'. As S_rria is currentlv involvcd in a cir,'il i.r'ar
and not utilizinc its full share ol Euphrates uatel'. therr'is likely- to be
sorr-re brcathinS roonr. at Ieasl iu thc ttear let'tlr
An Inverse Relationship: Less 'ater. Nlore of Everything EIse
The projected arnourits ol water required iitr eacl.r riparian stilte's
developnrcnt uorks arc as lollorvs: Iraq 65 perc:ent. Turker,52 per cent.
and 51'ri:r 32 per cent.ri 01- course thcse f)gures ercee<l 100 peL cent ol
water Llemand tbr the Er,rphrates Rivcr. Indeed, thcl' talli, up to atl
improbabk- 1.19 per cent. Clearll'. if cLrrt'ent rvater dematrds exceed one
hundlecl per cent. even bu-fbre tlie irnpacts of clirlirte change and
incleased populations are Iactored in. clenrand ri,ill shortly outstrip the
river"s abilitv to nleet dernand.rr
Indec-d. -riven this itdditional dcntancl lbr.wilter versus its r-risting ltitl
limited supplies. the level ol $'iiter inseculity tacecl bv each riparian state
is qLrite irigh. Unless these tlirec states can either. inclividuallv or
'rr Ali Akanda et ti.. Srnulteusrt'rtt Attutoliu Pru.jett;
.l
lte Cratlit rtl Civili:u-
Iiott l?e,4t'ru:rrttcti (1989), (C'itul its notc l. in Ali Akancla ar al..'fite 7-igt'i.r-
Euy;ltrale.s Rirer Bu.sitt: lVt'tliltirt,q u Putlt Towuttls Rcgiottrtl lkrl?t'Stubilit'. 1.
l{r,tnrr.l. T}r. FI-ETCr'tER Scqr:oL Jot-;Hs.',t.. tx, IssL,Hs RtL,TLD 1o SoLrrH'Esr
Asr. ,r) lsL..uc CIvlLIrAr-ro I (Spring 2007) available at: htrp://lran A.
e t lr. c h/s e rt i c e et t g i rt a/ P i l e s/ l S N/ .r 0 -1 22/. . . /7 1l u t l t r -2. trttl i'.
'-' ,scqul KibaroglLr. & Unver LIL Olcrrl'. Att lttstiltrlinutrl f'rtrntetrotk for
I:acilitarirr,q Coolterutiort irt tltt'[igri.r-Eultlrruttz.s lliter Bu.rin.5 INT[tt-{fto,L
N[Gotl.utoN -] I 1(1000): Speciai Issue Negoriuritrg itt Itttcntariotral hter
(ortrs(s: 1trcr Diplonrtt.t, C'urilit't urtd Cooltcttrtiorr in SoL'tge ,sl-ER ANATo-
rt.r Pno:r.c'r: Tr-rE CRAt)l-F- oF C1'lLrz.-Tto RECti!'iER.l'ED (Ali Akancla el rrl.
1989 ).
':r Ali Akanda er ttl.. The Tigris-Eulthrote t Rit cr. llusin: Me tlittitt.q u Patlr
Tbtortl.; Reg,iortal llurar Stubilirt..tt,Vrhrttt-r. THt, FL[.rcHER S(]HooL JttunN.rL
oF IssLl,s REL..I'I.D To SoL t-H'r--st AsrA AD IsL,jrc Ctvtt-tz.rttor 1 iSpring
)-001 j.
.jn
_t
_t:
,- :-
=.:
=
- :irr
l
3
3
*.5
q
-1
.:c
:ij
,i
,-a,:.
s
s
ln
*
,:"
:.1.
t
+
*5
:,1
z
,t
:l
.
ir
E
€

12. -. --:-.rl lrrl-gailOn prO-
: _ -: hen contpleted
.lter- 1'lorv of the
-- - -. rac1- oils. Tile se
.. .,.e!1 as the Baath
' .r-i ..tructtire s 'as
- -,-j::;ulturai develop-
- .,.:ii in a civil u'ar
- -
- '.:':'. is likell, to be
: .:r thing Elsc
....: .'iplLli:rrt :l.itc':
, , _.-.:ker. -t: per cent.
. , -.:i 100 Ller ceirt ol
- -:;i ialiv Lrlt to an
-- .--::'..iitds eceL'cl one
' - ..::rte chitttge lind
..:,rr-t1r oLrtslr'ip the
- - .,1.h ripurian stiite
: :-.::. indii,iclually or'
- . ('i.titllt'rtl C'irili-.rt-
'..-.. .t u!.. Tltc 'l
i,!ri.s-
. rtit'r Sttritilitt. tt
: . :-l iO SOt.:THrigst
,,ttl Fnuttt'rrork lot
,:. : lr trnr,tt tol.',t
!':,, nitrtittrttil lVittt'r-
: I]E .TI:Ii AN,ATO-
-, ,.h -{kandlr r,t a1.
,. .lt'tlirttitrq a Pttth
-:r.:r SLtHa)ol- .lot. R.-L
-....:tzittOS t tSpring
Tltt it'litidlL: l-)t.st: t liutrttt, r lttrt,qa. r'ut(:r in(.tLtritv tttttl lt.t'ittt-i!i1t1tt11111s.1 93
coliectieiy. lintit theiL 'atL'r r-lsc b..,r'r-tc-rlns of cLlnr-rlliL]n el uortrJin-
ing their agricultural sector's Llse of ,ater. they u,ill be confi'onted Lr1'
ir'hat Ienlision wi]l be fierce *,aiel allocation disputes. In ellect. son'ic
scholai's hai,c alrr'aclv prc.lictcd that ullocation disputes betu,een these
Ihree states'&l'e lrkely to r()rsen in the lirture. [moleover] tensiorrs have
irlrcad), incleasetl benr.,een Ihe ihree ...'"
Histcrr)'appeals to be on thesc authors'side. They'point to precxisting
criscs u'ithin thc EupLuates Rii,cl Basin: one in 1998 and thc othcr iir
197-!. They attribute the tu,o disputes bclu'een the three ripariuns 1rl a
'lack crf conlmLlnicatiol.l. conl'lictinc approaches. Lrnilateral devclopnrent.
and iiictlrciu-tlt ater managcrrcnt pfxctice.'ro Thc t$'o rricide-nts citer.l.
t'hieh lilnrost lecl to war. ,ere apporentll, nlin'orv)r' al'er-tc'd by'cxtcrnal
rncdiation'.''r This state oi'afTnils bettveen the thrce ripari;in stltcs irils
been so politically charged that the-v- have been inclplble of cven simple
strrtesic or intc'rnational rclations. such as takin:l pLLl t in anr tr pe cf
trilirterli delibcration-s concr'rning walcr uu ancl rrllocrttior.i.rs Inrleed. this
trio of stlites has been at un inrpu..r-'. conscqur.'nIl).'iinY attempt to riiscuss
their sharing of ,ater. let irlone clisclosule ol'data. appears lirtilc.r"
i,loreorer. thee three stilte i)crii irr eur-r'r,ing out their o'n sepilrate
rvorl's, inclucling constnrctioii of danrs aucl irrislitrort pro.iect..
Another problenr is increascd water salinity. The salinitl' crt' Euphrates
Rivt:r'u,ater rs it L-nters I|ac1 1i'oln J'nr'l'c-'. measurccl b.v tot;rl dissolrecl
solids (TDSt units has incr,.-ascd nvolold rs conlparcd to that chlring
i973,t" South ol Iraq's capitiLl Bashdad. in tlie area of the Al Hinrlia
Barrage along the Euphrates. salinity'hiLs risen lirrrlfbl<1 ovel the past
threc clecacles. fionr rrn annull il,eriige o1'1080 parts llr-r r.nillion (ppm) in
1979 to n'lore than -1500 pprl in 2(X)i.rr This detelioration o1'rt'ater
qualitv and :r concornil.ant rlecreused tlor.l, e ntelinq Illrl rrraY be portent of
things to conre.
Ne'r'crtheless.
-'larw a llaoudr,.
things may not be as bleak as tlrc')' rplrcar. In l01L)
a.joumalist lbr S;,r'ia Today. a Svlian English nronthly
" Ihid.
',. Ibid.
:; lbid.
rs Ibi(1.
"' Ibid.
r'r Saa qt,tterullt. Kiray'r'un A. Rahi rnrl Todcl Halihan. ClttuttL'.s in iitu
SolirtittolrircEultltrutc.i1{nrr'Si.ircrrrlri lttrtl. l(l Rer-;tol,-rt,Esvrl-(lH.txce17.
19 (l0il))
'i I hid.

13. 94 Globul atrvirotlttettrul lutr ur tt t't'o.s.srr)ud.s
ma,gazine. wroLe an articlerr in which she cited a lengthy history of
regular meetings between the three riparian st.rtes since 1962. During
these sunrrnits. she states. the parties discussed 'u,ater developments in
the Euphrates and Tigris basins'.r'Daoudy also noted that in 1987. Syria
and Turkey executed a multipurpose protocol. the Protocol of 1987.
u,hich set into motion the 'first bilateral agreenlent between Syria and
Trrrkcy. In that instrumcnt. Turkey committed in rvriting to release .r
mininrum ivater florv of 500 rn'/second over the Sl,rian border'.'rl
Morcover. in 1989. Svriu rnd Iraq. the d()nstrearl r-iparian states.
reached a r.vater-sharins a-qreement that aliocated 58 pel cent of all the
rvaters f-lorving do$,nsiream fr-orn Turkey. to Iraq and ,12 per cent to .Syria.
Hor,,,o'er. in 1990 Turkel'brought the Atattirk Danr on line, ancl as a
conequence lirnited the flou, ol the Euphratcs tbl a ntonth. to the point
u,here a :aler /ar almosl crupted. But that appears to have been a
one-time incident.
Daoucly suggests that since the eally 2000s. 'furkcy- appears to have
.shilied its discourse over h'ansboundarv waters. Indeed. rather than tbcus
on issues of sovei'eignt-v, Turkey has promoted be.ncfit--sharing on a
biiateral basis i.r,ith Syria.ri This coopelative posture has led tcl tl.re
institution of a string ol meetings. training prosrams. as well as research
prdects.16 Indeed. ii third bilatelal agreelnent between Turkey and Syria.
executed in 2001, seems to have launched a nerv chapier. although the
parties could not asree on volLrmetric allclcations. agricultural pollution
ori-einating in Turkey and haq's status lvithin this fi'amework. So long as
the thi'ee states to the dispute are nesotiatine in good faith. and with the
aim of reaching a solution to resolve theil dispute. they are likely to
emplol,a number of ival's to lirrive ilt son)e type of resolution. For
exarnple. they could employ the 'nrutual adjustmeut'r7 negotiaring tech-
nique in seeking a solution to their conundrurn.
rr .1aru a Daoudy. Svriart-Turl;i.slt Httlrodiltlorncrtt. Svatq Tooer' (Jan.
20 I 0 ) available at: http://rvrvt,.svria-today. corn/index. php/tbcu s/5 260-sylian-
turk ish-hydrodiplomacys.
{ i ltrid.
f,tr Ibiti.
15 Ibid.
i6 tbid.
'17 'ivlutual adjusturent' is one of the major triggers tbl chan_ge during
negotiations. It occurs because the parties recognize thar durin_s the negotiating
process chan_qes in position rvill takc placc:. The parries understalid that thcy can
and tii'ten ,'vill influence each other's position and ti-rus. the othel side's outcome.
lndeed. ntost successful ncgotiators seek to understand hor.v the people on the
other ide ol the table u,il1 correcr their stances and perceprioni durirrg eluh
l
l:: '"'*a
-j
-3
..r
':c
'I

14. .if
.-:ts
.in
,-]. -J
"
--i
': J
'l
lp 14ildlc Ea.s!: clinrute clturtla. v(ter iitseLuritt atttl lttrlro-diplorrttttr 95
The IVlediterranean
Over the past twenty vears the lvlcditerranean reqion has experienced ten
of thc l2 driest $,inters (Novernber - April) since l90J.rs Nevertheless.
half of Mediterranean land mass is dedicated tcr a_griculture. rvhich
consumes 60 per cerlt to 80 per cent ol the re_eion's annual water
supply.'')'lt is in this context that increased drought frequency obsened
over land areas srrrroundin_e the Medilerranean Sea [includin_r the ivliddlu-
Eastl in recent decades has become an issue ... o1'great concern becausc
of the threats posed to the region's [wilter andl tbod securitv.'5')
Concomitantly. the drying tendency. u,hich since 1902 has been a
q,inter season phcnomenon. has caused northern Europe to erpericnce
increased precipitation.5r This north-south divide witlrin Europr-'s pre-
cipitation regimc l.ras taken place ovcr the past centur,v and rcsembles
/eather anomaly patterns that causc the dominant confi_eurations of
'North Atlantic atmospheric variability that is linked to storm track
changes over Europe.'ir The contrast in north-south precipitation trcnds
defines the projected climate change patterns that are anticipated to occur
toward the end of the trventy-first century.i-1 Climatic pattenls Ihat
cun'cntly dorninate the southern tier of Europe and rvill continue to do so
in the future. obviousll, play out acl'oss the Middle East. since tl.re
(listance tionr Creece and Cyprus to Israel. I-ebanon and Syria. fbr
exanrple. is a mere 310 kilometres (200 n.riles).
Druughr. l-5 J. CLI-uAIE 2146 (2012).
re lbid. (ClIirrS ESPERE. Clirnute l.nctcktpediu - Fo<xl urul Clinuue (7006).
htt p ://e spe rc. m pc h - mai nz. mp g. de/doc u rn e n t -s/pd t7 ).
:r) lbid. tCitnrg A. lariotti. Rac'ent Clnngas in the Mtdirerntneui ll'utcr
CtL:le: A Potlrwut Tovort! Lortr! - Tenrt Regiorurl Hulroclimutit' Clnngc) 21 l.
CLt:"t,rr-r l5l3 f l0l0t: and G.C. Nelson et ul.. Clirnata Clturrge: Intpatt ott
Agritrrlture untl Costs ol Aduprrtrion, IFPRI Fooo Pot.icv Rutclnr (2009).
availablc at: http://doi: 10.2.199/0896295354.
. r Ibid.
sr Ibid.
5r Ibid. See also. Susan Solonron rl rrl. (eds). Clirnore Chatgc 2007: tlrc
plr.sicul st'iertt'e bc.ri.r (Contribution of rvorking group I to the Fourth Asscss-
mcnt Report ol the Intcrgorernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007).
phase oi'the negotiating proccss. rn rcsponse to what the pcople on the othel side
of tablc do and are expectetl to do. See c.9.. Roy J. Lewicki ar a/.. Necolt.rttor
l0-l I (3rd ed. 19991.
rs Martin Hoerling et ul.. On tlu, ltrt'rerr.setl Frctluetu't' of lVleditcrrutteurr

15. 96 Gloltttl crttiront)t(ntll lott ui rr t'ftt.t.ruurtls
Indeed. xccording to the lnterqovernnrentai i)ane] on Climate Char:-.
(IPCC) Fourth Assessrlrcnt. llv the latter dc'cades o1'tl.ris centr-u'),iuc:.:--'
ing anthropogcnic qrcenhouse gii-es are proiectell to calrse thc Ilec..--
laneln regron to be the clriest. ancl to e.xperience the gl'eatest dr-iilg.
thc 26 gkrbal regions that the IPCC has dc-flned aroLrnd the t,orld.'-
The iblesoing points to the depth oi' the ploblem for the stirtr'-
the ivliddle L,ast. Since at least trvo o1'them. E,uypt and Israel. as '3 -
the Palestirrian teilitory o1'Gaza. lie along the Meditcrriurean - Egii '
the sea's solltil ancl lsrael ancl Girza to irs cast - rhey r.i,ill llLcrc thc ei.-
of tlre preclictecl warming tlends. Ohi,iousl),. the greatcr thc nuiul.::
drv rvinters the less precipitltion anrl the greater the water insecLrritr :...
Conconritantl-v. if th.' percefitirse ol'rvater Lrtitized foi lr'ricLrltule- (ltrir '
shrink from tlre culreni consrunption rate of ltctrveen 60 per ceut rin; '
per cent of tire rcsion's annual r.l,ater supplv. and droLrghts continr-..
pelsist. thc situation u,ill in all iikelihood becotue enf'lanrecl. as dilt:::-
uer sectors be-gin to fighi ovcr a liniitcd resolrree .
One exarnpie of sLrch a clash occulred ir.r southem Olcgon's U:: .-
Klanrath Biisin clru'ing the drou_!.lht ol' t['rc' sunrnrcr ol ]00 l.5s T;-.: .
a.ricultural inierests u'erc unable tr-r trbtain thcir allotnrent o1' $'aier ,..--
the Unitecl Slates Burelu of Recianration shut dorvn thc: heaclgrtes t,: ..-,
Klamath Plo.ject.-;r' in oldcl to conservL' u,ltc-r needecl by endanr.-:.-
species. prirrelily salmon.-i7 Falrnels and aboriginal (Arncricrrn In'..--
lisheurrcn f,-,u.rht orcr iltdr ri!hts r,, itlr tlrr' e()ntlie t LulninS ir, -
gr-rerilla war of i,andalisnr. prc)tests. and ettt.entcll liery thre"r.
i+ F. Ciorgi. (-linttLtc Cltrn,;!t, Hot-Sl)ot..3-l Crrrt,ttt's. Rt-s. LEil I-t '- -
i200() t. Sarruci Soirrot ei ul- 2 Lst Ccnrrtr.', Clintutt, Chcritcrt .('?ttut it) i, .
,'letlilt'rr,trtc,ttt Lr.yirtg tt L()t!plttl Atttto.;pltert-Occutt RcqiottLr! Ciiutata,lli,,i. .'
Gloe.rL .Nn Pr.Nr:T:Rv Cu.NCE I11 tScpt. 1008) available ar: hrrp:r' .,
cilnu.ir'rctc().11/um{ec/n*vs/praper_G[-OB,L_AND_PLANIlTAR'_CH.{(,:,
sonroi_l 7ao u tl007.pci l.
:: Ilollr Dorenrus & Dan
-llrlt-.ck.
!,TIIR ',R I Tf{h KL,I.1TH B.:
iu..cHo L,rri. Colrs.u BtoLOG: .ND DII{tY PoLITtcs (]{}08).
:n Thr Burcar-r ol Rt:ciamtiiiun is thc teclcral agenc"r,chargcd u,ilh 't.r:rr.,:. --
the Klarl.rtlt I'roiect's 'atel rdsourccs.,tl,a i:.{.. l-lnitcd Stl]tes Deltaltnreni ',:---
lnlericrr. Bureru ol Rccliinrirtion. Klutrtarlt Projct't ll-lrst irpdated. MIal, ll. i .
http:/lu'r,ri.Lrstrr.r:or lprr-:jrcts/ Pro.ject..jsp jpril_Nantc=Klaniatir+Projet t. ,!.. -
Elic .. Stcnc. ftliaririiit Projtct lHi.stor.t'1. Burceu ril Reclarlation r :..--
hitp://rr'rt u,.Lrsbr-ltrr,lpro jc'ctsl/hnagcSelr,cr'.)irtuNante=Doc_l -10-5 I I I 165 ltll.. -
ir lbid.

16. . r, Clirnate Chanse's
...- centut'-v inct'eas-
-.ruse thc. Vlediter-
: _ite ate st drying. of
.-
...i the u,orlcl.5l
. ^ ii.rl thc states of
--: Israel. as rvell as
':-:'"irci.lt.] * Egvpt to
.il tace the e ft'ects
-:-. ;'r' th€ nlrnrber clf
,,.:r' irrsecnrity lisk.
- ..,:nculture docs not
- -, t per cellt and 80
- -:Shtr col]linLte to
..::lrd. as ciillerent
-:: Oregon's Upper
, 100 1 .55 The rc.
. :.ri of watL-r when
.: heldgates o1- the
- -:: b1' endangered
.nre;:icar.i Inciian)
'-. turninc into a
- , i.'rv threlts it1-
l. LErr L08707
- 5.tlturio fr;r tlte
,-- iitttrtt l,lolel. 63
, -^-- :i',: Itttp://rvri,u..
: {R'-CHANCE
',-- (:-rrt.t^fit B,rSiN:
_. _ -.- ii irh 'manaling'
-. l:n;rrtntent of the
-- .:-. lar'11. l0ll).
- -. -P:o.ject. S(tt 0i.0.
: .- .,illrtittn ( 199-l).
. i -rtlll6.-stO2.pclt'.
Tltt' ,lir!llt Eu.tt: t iinrttc (lttttle , 'LuL,t in.c(ut itt Lrrttl lt.tdrc-tliplonttrtt 9T
.iolcnce.5l Moreovcr" the 'rationinlr'of ri.ater Lry thc Bureau of Reclarra-
ti(in gencratecl signiticant litigatirin. inclLrcirng one casc tirat reached thc
Llnitetl Srates SLrprcmc' (lonrt.5!'
T'he Nliddle East
Returuin" to the 'licltlle East. particr-rlarl,r' lsrael, .lordan an(l the
Palestinian Terlitolics. one tllct is inescapable: its of 2008 each ot tltr-se
entitiL's hls fallel belorv thr itrininruur thleshold rtt' w,rrter scarcitl,. That
absolute ilinilnr.ulr. ris clctiner.l b1'thc United Nations Food and Agricul-
tulc Organisation (FAO). is .5(X) cubic mciels (rlt)/inhlbitanr/year.
( lil.t)86 US gallons or 3(rl gallons/inhat'rilant/driy").6') In contrirst 'Itlhc
A:eragL'Anrcrican lit-estyle is kept atloat by,aboLrt 2000 sailons ol H-O
l dar - t,,i,ice thc'global avr'nr8e.'nr Due 1tr populatiorl ,lrrowth in the
tr4idclle East. thelc har bcen a decrcase in the arc'r'aqe lnnuul intelnrrl
rcnes able ,ater rcsoLlrces (IRWR) pel inhabitar-rt. iis rileilsut'ecl in a
l0()8 1n0's AQUASTA| survel,.r'r rvhen compareci to the pler,iorrs onc.
u'hiclr uas r:ncleltaken in 100-5."'
Table 5.1 prcsL'nts thc' uverasc lnnLral lRWR6] per inhabitant.
and tl-rc clistril-rution ol total lictual r-enerval-rie 'ater res(rLlrcL's
-' Ibicl.
5') B.'tltlctt r: 5)rr'rr: 520 L,.S. i:4 (1997)l Pttci.fit Lou.st f eii'n ol.F-i.rltennan'.s
.1rs r r'. Li.S. Ilur*ttr o.f Rttlrtntttriori.416 F.3d 1082 (91h Cir. lrJ0-5).
iir Katen Frcnkc'tt (ed.). l; r'l,grrtittu iu tltt' *IidtllL Eost Rt,tirtn in Fi.qur<':;,
..tlttarrirt Sirn'r.r' '- lrfl.l (FAO lVater Repot'ts. 2.009i. at -l-1. Availlble rt:
h ttp:,/i r'.'rvr..,. f ao.orglckrc r*pl() I 2/i09I6c-/i09"16c(X). irtnr,
'r National Gcogruphic. Iltdter [1)(itprittt Cultulutot' (]0ll). Arailuble ]t:
htqr:/lg p1 r ron nrcnt . uxtr Lrnlrlgeograph ic.conl/r'nv iftrn rnent/ llcsh iltcr /'iitcr -
i(rr)tpri nt- crr lcr! I xtor.
1r: Karen I-rcnkerr tcd.). lrigatirnt in tltt'llidllt'Ltr.tt Rc'.qion irt I-iqtrra.s.
,.iluitJt{tt Stllrr' - l(/{.)c! lF,,O iiltc-r Reports. ]t)09). at .l-1.
IhitI
r'-i lbid. at 1J.'Internirl llcnes,al)le Water. lLcsources tlRWRrt long-ternr
a!'Irrgo annual t'lou,of lilcls lncl rechar-te of aquilirs genr-rlicd tlorn enrltrg-
g111rpl-* prr'cipifation. f)ouble counting of srrrlar:e uater iurtl gx)Lrnd*ltil le-oLrrccs
i: iLr oidt'd bt, tieducting tht' overlap 1t'cr-n llre sunt ol the surllce $ arL'r and
!rountl* i.rtel resou[ces. Thclc is it]so an Lrtarnal reneu'trblc n atir tcsourcc.
thich j. delinecl as'Erternrrl llcnervable Watr'r Resor-rrces (ERWRI rrc that part
itf thc' cr-runlr,'s rcncr!ablc 'iitef resoufce, thal are n0t gcnerateti $ ithin tire:
countr. Thef includc inilou's lroru upstreunr coirntrics (glouneJrrater ancl suriuce
uir.tar ). irn(l pirrt 01'thc i,,uter ol LrorLier- lakes or ri|er':.'

17. GIrthuI otts'it-ottn1entLrI /ot1 Lt| (t (t'().'.t {iti/t
(TARWR).65 measrlred in 2008. When reading the table one shoLrld recall
th:rt the thlesholtl lirr 'absolute water scarcit)" is m-r/inhabitantll,ear.
With respect to IRWR. their resourccs are lo!'er than the cut-otf point
of mr/inhabitirnt/year. considc'reel to be the threshold fbl absolute r.r,ater
scarcitl,. The IRWR and TARWR daia for the six listed countlie,s and
telljtories denronstrate thai the resolrrces per inhalritani are extremely
limited. With respect to TARWR. each stale and territorl,. except the
S,vrian Arab Republic. rernains below this threshold. The other states and
terlitories har'e rniniinnl to high clepenclenc_,- raies.66 The Palestinian
Tenitories are helped oni;' slightiy' iratio lon'er than 10 per cent): and
Bahrain. Isrirel. and .Icrrdan 'have liigh dependencv ratio despite 1or.v
external reneg,able resources.'6r Finally. only Srria has a relatlvelv high
liaction ol erogenous renew;rb1e resolrrces. however it still finds itself in
a situation of chronic rvater scarcit_v: measured at the mininral threshold
of less tl.ian 1()00 m'r/inhabitant/year.6s
Cir,en these tigures one need not consicler too many scencrios io
realize that there is a high probabilitl" that a cor.rt'lict beiween the
Palestinians in Judea and Saniaria (l'est Bank;('e and Jsrael. over rheir
main source oi rr,,ater. the Yarkon-Tannanim or Nilruntain Acluifer, lnav
oi lbid. The term 'total actual renewable 4ater resolrrces' is delined in tr.vo
rvavs r"lependinc on its ciiaracter. 'tr,rta1 Datural-or'total acttrai.'TLrtal Nirtrlal
Renewable Vtrler Resoru'ces (TRWR natnraij l5 '1119 lE;ng-term rverage sum ol'
internal renervable rr,atar rL'sources llRWRI ancl erternal natural renervable rvater
rerources (ERWR natural). {1 6e11e,rponds to the mrximum theoreticirl yearlv
amounl of raLer actuillh ai'ailable for a counrl.'at a given r:n(]nlenl.'
Rener.,uable wirter resources: total actual (km3/year), 'Total Actual Renc-rvable
&'atel Resoulces iTRWR_acaralt [is] the sum of inte rnai renewable water
resources (IRWR) and external actuiil rener.r,iible rvzrter resource- TERWR_
actllal). It corresponds ro the n'iarimunr theoretical 1'early arnour-rt ol water
:rctrulll ltrrrlahlc li'r I r'otrnlrt ;rt r sircrt illornenl.'
(r, lbid,
'' lhirl.
6s ltrid.
n" Tire ternr is not userl here as a'politrcal ternr'. Rather. it is a term
emploved b3, the L:nited Nations General Assembly. in its Resolutitrn 181 of
I9,17. as tollows: 'ltl he boundarl ol the hill countr-v oi Sarnarir and Judea -stalts
on the Jordan Rii'er at the Wadi N'lalih south-east of Beisan and runs due u,est to
meet the Beisan-Jericho road and then iollows the rvestelu side of that rtiad in ir
rroith-rtesteriy direction to the junction of the borLndaries trf the SrLLr-Districts ot
Beisan. Nablus. rrnd Jenin.' G.A. Res. 181 (II), LI.N. Doc. A/64. at Pari 11,
Boundaries. A. The Arah State i l9:17i.
Ti ,
T,tblt :
CilllliII:.
B ahi:.i:-.
I'n.l
H;isher-r -
KII_rri, ':'-
,ILJI.i:rt:
P:iie:ii:- :-.
Teilrti';r. -
ji;iu;t l.:.
R:nu.l -
_,.:r/ I :
frl..:: ji -
rlCC LII ,'.
Palert:::.,- -
t,, oLkir':- :
Tlic '.
aLln!lali-.
hr r-1rr.lr
-. -
ln'ip,-,.::,
.ietlilr;::.
COCL.
Clint;il; -
pLrpril;,:
de caJ.'. I
tri(rL:.. -
' r.--
r.rf l6:.-
i;rnd; -.:-
Fi( r-1, '
iihr erl' :- -

18. iq
.;.E:-.
The Midclle Eost: i:linutte clrcnge, v'ater in:iecln'in' rmtl htdro-tliplonutct' 99
Table 5. I Cotmtries and te rrito rie.s w'ith u,ater resoltrces o.f'les.s than
5 00/nrt /in h a b i t ut t/t' e a r
Countr;" Interrral Renewable Water
Resources/lnhabitant/Year
in ntetrel
l99s 200-s
Totai Renewable Yater
Resources/Inhabitant/Year
in rnetre:l
1995 2005
Bahrain
I srael
Hashemite
Kin-edorn of
Jordan
Palestinian
Territories
Svrian Arab
Republic
1
l'+0
t24
310
411
6
1i2
120
219
.37_5
206
33r
t6r
320
1791
160
265
161
126
882
Source: Food andAgriculture Organization of the United Nations. lrriguriott itt thc 14idclle
ELtst region itt.fitures. AQUASTAT Sun'ev (2008) at 31.
occur within the next 20 to 30 years. This is particularly true for
Palestinians where agriculture employs approximately 16.1 per cent of its
rlorkforce.T0
The one aspect that neither Israel nor the Palestinians have yet to
consider is the impact of climate change on their indigenous or native
hl,drological cycle. This lack of consideration, or more correctly seltl
imposed obliviousness to global warming. is to these two peoples'
detriment, as the previous discussion has outlined.
CONCLUSION
Climate change, in concert with deteriorating water quality and increased
population, will make the Middle East water insecure over the next few
decades. That the governments of the states in the region have yet to
seriously consider alternatives is disquieting. In an era of global warming
70 According to the CIA Factbook. in 2010. the W'est Bank had a workforce
of 765,600, which was divided as follows: 'agriculture: l6.L%: industry: 28.1%
iandl services: 55.596 (2010 est.;.' Central Intelligence A-uency, Tur Wonlo
F.-rcreoor. MtonLe Eest: WEst BaNr (2012) available at: https://wr.vw.cia.gov/
I i brary/publications/the-world-factboolJgeos/we.html.

19. 10() (llohttl ttn ironnttttlnl lr.t:r dt tt t'|'os.t'()il(1.
and ircreasins ch'oushts. an exlsting det-lcit of available renr'able ''ater
resourcer. includinq aquifer rechar-gc. increasing populations. hielt uater
clenranci lbr agliculture and Lrurseoning inilustrv. rbc ltates oi the lv{iciilie
East q i11 need to chan-9e the wry the-v utiiize r,,'ater'. arrrl to con-sidei
increasing their srirr,retel'Llse while collaLrorating 11ith each other on ir
rc-giL)nx1 trategl,'. ln ihe lYor"ds of Kahlil Cibran. thcY mtLst 'rnarch or
[endl nrrt rlrr.r. To go torward is to nror.e tow;1rd perl'ection. [These
politicilurs ale dntv bound tol rnarch on. ancl 1'eur not ihe thorils. ol the
sharp stones on ijfs'-s path.'