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   Creating a simplified version of reality
     Working with this simplified version to understand some
      part of a business problem


• Benefits of Modeling:
    Provides timely information
    Saves costs
      o Relative to alternatives (e.g., surveys)
      o By avoiding expensive errors
     Results in improved business intuition
Real World Problem                    Modeling Problem
     Problem         Formulation       Assumptions and
    Statement                          Model Structures


                                                Analysis


     Solution                            Results and
                     Interpretation      Conclusions
• Exploring the Mess          Questions Answered:
1                                 o What problems or opportunities are
                                    being faced?
    • Searching for Information   o Where does a gap exist between the
2                                   current situation and the desired one?
                                  o What are the stated and unstated
    • Identifying a Problem         goals?
3
                                  Result:
    • Searching for Solutions     o A description of the situation
4
                                  o Identified (not gathered) key facts and
                                    data
    • Evaluating Solutions
5

    • Implementing a Solution
6
• Exploring the Mess
1

    • Searching for Information   Questions Answered:
2                                 o What are the symptoms and causes?
                                  o What measures of effectiveness seem
    • Identifying a Problem         appropriate?
3                                 o What actions are available?

    • Searching for Solutions     Result:
4
                                  o Found and organized relevant data
                                  o Made initial hypotheses about
    • Evaluating Solutions          problem causes and solutions
5

    • Implementing a Solution
6
• Exploring the Mess
1

    • Searching for Information
2

    • Identifying a Problem       Questions Answered:
3                                 o Which is the most important
                                    problem?
    • Searching for Solutions     o Is this problem like others we have
4                                   dealt with?
                                  o What are the consequences of a broad
    • Evaluating Solutions          versus narrow problem statement?
5
                                  Result:
    • Implementing a Solution     o Working problem statement
6
• Exploring the Mess
1

    • Searching for Information
2

    • Identifying a Problem
3

    • Searching for Solutions     Questions Answered:
4                                 o What decisions are open to us?
                                  o What solutions have been tried in
    • Evaluating Solutions          similar situations?
5                                 o How are the various candidate
                                    solutions linked to outcomes of
    • Implementing a Solution       interest?
6
                                  Result:
                                  o List of potential solutions
• Exploring the Mess
1

    • Searching for Information
2

    • Identifying a Problem
3

    • Searching for Solutions     Questions Answered:
4                                 o How does this solution impact each of
                                    the criteria?
    • Evaluating Solutions        o What factors within our control could
5                                   improve the outcomes?
                                  o What factors outside our control could
    • Implementing a Solution       alter the outcomes?
6
                                  Result:
                                  o Recommended course of action
• Exploring the Mess
1

    • Searching for Information
2

    • Identifying a Problem
3

    • Searching for Solutions     Questions Answered:
4                                 o What are the barriers to successful
                                    implementation?
    • Evaluating Solutions        o Where will there be support and
5                                   motivation, or resistance and conflict?
                                  o Are the resources available for
    • Implementing a Solution       successful implementation?
6
                                  Result:
                                  o Implementation Plan
 Useful tool during the initial conceptual stage of
  model building
 Depicts the relationship between the various input
  variable available and the outcome which is being
  found through the model
 Helps in taking an early decision on what
  parameters to include or exclude
Start with the outcome measure


    Decompose it into set of mutually exhaustive and
    independent variables


    Repeat the process of decomposition for each variable



Identify input data as it arises
Determine the price a company should set for its
product so as to generate the highest possible profit

        Price


                                  Total
       Quantity                  Revenue
        Sold


                      Variable                Profit
                       Cost


       Unit
       Cost                      Total Cost


                    Fixed
                    Cost

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Itc presentation

  • 1.
  • 2. Creating a simplified version of reality  Working with this simplified version to understand some part of a business problem • Benefits of Modeling:  Provides timely information  Saves costs o Relative to alternatives (e.g., surveys) o By avoiding expensive errors  Results in improved business intuition
  • 3. Real World Problem Modeling Problem Problem Formulation Assumptions and Statement Model Structures Analysis Solution Results and Interpretation Conclusions
  • 4. • Exploring the Mess Questions Answered: 1 o What problems or opportunities are being faced? • Searching for Information o Where does a gap exist between the 2 current situation and the desired one? o What are the stated and unstated • Identifying a Problem goals? 3 Result: • Searching for Solutions o A description of the situation 4 o Identified (not gathered) key facts and data • Evaluating Solutions 5 • Implementing a Solution 6
  • 5. • Exploring the Mess 1 • Searching for Information Questions Answered: 2 o What are the symptoms and causes? o What measures of effectiveness seem • Identifying a Problem appropriate? 3 o What actions are available? • Searching for Solutions Result: 4 o Found and organized relevant data o Made initial hypotheses about • Evaluating Solutions problem causes and solutions 5 • Implementing a Solution 6
  • 6. • Exploring the Mess 1 • Searching for Information 2 • Identifying a Problem Questions Answered: 3 o Which is the most important problem? • Searching for Solutions o Is this problem like others we have 4 dealt with? o What are the consequences of a broad • Evaluating Solutions versus narrow problem statement? 5 Result: • Implementing a Solution o Working problem statement 6
  • 7. • Exploring the Mess 1 • Searching for Information 2 • Identifying a Problem 3 • Searching for Solutions Questions Answered: 4 o What decisions are open to us? o What solutions have been tried in • Evaluating Solutions similar situations? 5 o How are the various candidate solutions linked to outcomes of • Implementing a Solution interest? 6 Result: o List of potential solutions
  • 8. • Exploring the Mess 1 • Searching for Information 2 • Identifying a Problem 3 • Searching for Solutions Questions Answered: 4 o How does this solution impact each of the criteria? • Evaluating Solutions o What factors within our control could 5 improve the outcomes? o What factors outside our control could • Implementing a Solution alter the outcomes? 6 Result: o Recommended course of action
  • 9. • Exploring the Mess 1 • Searching for Information 2 • Identifying a Problem 3 • Searching for Solutions Questions Answered: 4 o What are the barriers to successful implementation? • Evaluating Solutions o Where will there be support and 5 motivation, or resistance and conflict? o Are the resources available for • Implementing a Solution successful implementation? 6 Result: o Implementation Plan
  • 10.  Useful tool during the initial conceptual stage of model building  Depicts the relationship between the various input variable available and the outcome which is being found through the model  Helps in taking an early decision on what parameters to include or exclude
  • 11. Start with the outcome measure Decompose it into set of mutually exhaustive and independent variables Repeat the process of decomposition for each variable Identify input data as it arises
  • 12. Determine the price a company should set for its product so as to generate the highest possible profit Price Total Quantity Revenue Sold Variable Profit Cost Unit Cost Total Cost Fixed Cost