On the back of healthy volume growth and stable pricing scenario, we expect Tier 1 players to report USD revenue growth in the range of 2.5-7.5% Q-o-Q with TCS likely to lead the pack with growth at the higher end.
Narnolia Securities Limited expect performance Public Sector Banks (PSBs) to remain muted on the back of slower pace of loan growth and deteriorating asset quality led by ongoing restructure assets and stress in economy. For more information contact us on http://www.narnolia.com/index.php/contact-us/
Infosys largely reported inline set of sales numbers. We retain our BUY view on the stock with a target price of target price of Rs 3910 as well as neutral view on the stock of Indusind bank. Also private Bank result preview 3QFY14 in this Pdf.
All IT companies are accelerating its revenue growth and shaping up its margin because of favorable demand and supply environment. We maintain our positive stance on (In order ofpreference) TECHM, PERSISTENT, ZENSARTECH, ECLERX and KPIT under mid cap space.
Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of TCS, HDFC Bank, FEDERAL BANK, DB CORP and ITC Stock with target price of Rs 2360 ,Rs 760/share, 98/share, Rs 340, and Rs 380 respectively
Narnolia Securities Limited expect, TCS will be star performer in growth sense than other peers. Hence,we are maintaining 17% (revised from 18%) revenue growth in dollar term for FY14E because of improved demand environment, while NASSCOM expects 12-14% for the Industry. At a price of Rs 2041, it is trading at 18x FY15E earnings, We maintain" BUY" view on the stock with a target price of Rs 2510. Also Hold Stock of HDFC Bank
Narnolia Securities Limited expect performance Public Sector Banks (PSBs) to remain muted on the back of slower pace of loan growth and deteriorating asset quality led by ongoing restructure assets and stress in economy. For more information contact us on http://www.narnolia.com/index.php/contact-us/
Infosys largely reported inline set of sales numbers. We retain our BUY view on the stock with a target price of target price of Rs 3910 as well as neutral view on the stock of Indusind bank. Also private Bank result preview 3QFY14 in this Pdf.
All IT companies are accelerating its revenue growth and shaping up its margin because of favorable demand and supply environment. We maintain our positive stance on (In order ofpreference) TECHM, PERSISTENT, ZENSARTECH, ECLERX and KPIT under mid cap space.
Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of TCS, HDFC Bank, FEDERAL BANK, DB CORP and ITC Stock with target price of Rs 2360 ,Rs 760/share, 98/share, Rs 340, and Rs 380 respectively
Narnolia Securities Limited expect, TCS will be star performer in growth sense than other peers. Hence,we are maintaining 17% (revised from 18%) revenue growth in dollar term for FY14E because of improved demand environment, while NASSCOM expects 12-14% for the Industry. At a price of Rs 2041, it is trading at 18x FY15E earnings, We maintain" BUY" view on the stock with a target price of Rs 2510. Also Hold Stock of HDFC Bank
The 90th Business Outlook Survey is based on responses received from over 150 industry members. Majority of respondents (48%) belonged to large-scale sector, while medium and small scale companies comprised of 17 per cent and 35 per cent respectively. Further, the largest 50 per cent of respondents were from services, followed by 44 per cent from manufacturing and 6 per cent from primary sector.
A majority (55%) of the respondents expect GDP growth to settle in the range of 6.5-7.5 per cent in FY15. This is directly in line with 7.4 per cent GDP growth in FY15 as per the revised estimates of CSO. In a welcome sign, while GDP is expected to register high growth rate, inflationary expectations have moderated. A considerable proportion (72%) of respondents believe that wholesale inflation will remain below 6.0 per cent level in FY15, which should provide legroom to RBI to soften the monetary policy in favour of growth.
In further indication of macro-economic strengthening, around 72 per cent of respondents expected current account deficit (CAD) to be less than 2.5 per cent (of GDP) in FY15. India’s CAD stood at 1.8 per cent in first three quarters of FY15, after it narrowed sharply to 1.7 per cent in FY14 from 4.7 per cent in FY13.
Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of UltraTech Cement Ltd, DB Corp and Infosys with target price of Rs 1846,Rs 340 and Rs 400 to Rs 440 respectively
Narnolia Securities Limited expect that the KPIT Tech company would report better earnings with margin ramp up and signing of larger deals in next couple of quarters. Now, we upgrade our view on the stock from “Neutral” to “Buy” with a price target of Rs 185. At a CMP of Rs 160, stock trades at 9.5x FY15E EPS.
MindTree: Rupee appreciation drags revenue growth during Q1FY15IndiaNotes.com
Onsite pricing was up 2.7%, while offshore pricing declined by 0.5%. In INR terms revenues grew at a slower rate by 2.4% QoQ impacted by rupee appreciation during the quarter. EBITDA grew by 41.5% YoY, but fell by 4.9%.
• Historically, financial crisis have generally occurred due to endogenous factors – economic imbalances like high crude prices, high inflation, etc. This time it is different since macros being stable, the current crisis is the result of an external factor i.e. COVID-19
• India’s long term growth story remains intact since it is better placed in terms of fundamentals
• We believe, Emerging Markets have the potential to recover better than Developed Markets & that Value as a theme performs better than Growth during recovery phase. Hence, we recommend investing in ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund
• Owing to the temporary economic crisis due to COVID-19, we recommend investing in ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund
• Given further uncertainty regarding the spread of COVID-19, volatility is expected to prevail. We recommend investing in ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund to manage volatility • We remain positive on the Smallcap space as valuations are reasonable & recommend investing in ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund
• Post any crisis, sectoral leadership has changed in the past. Aim to invest in future potential leaders through ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund
CMC has recent healthy demand environment across the IT space, Narnolia Securities Limited positive for the "BUY" view on the stock and we revise our target price from Rs1490 to Rs1690.
Shree Cement very good strategy for capacity expansion. We are positive to buy stocks with Target Price Rs.4791. Also why positive outlook in sector 2014 and earning guidance for FY15E on IT industry
Narnolia Securities Limited initiates the dealing of pipeline with Persistent System focusing on the increase of the share of IP-led revenues in its portfolio. Looking at the revenue growth, we upgrade the stock and expect for better outcome.
As there has been a trend of performance concentration across market cycles, different investment styles may perform at different phases of a market cycle. Our Market Outlook for November 2020
http://bit.ly/GEWaout2014
Les dirigeants sont de plus en plus conscients du potentiel inexploité de l'Afrique sub-saharienne. La population de l'Afrique subsaharienne est devrait croître plus rapidement que dans toutes les autres régions du monde. En conséquence, en 2040, le Continent africain devrait avoir la plus grande force de travail du monde et pourrait avoir une croissance économique plus rapide que n'importe quelle autre région.
The 90th Business Outlook Survey is based on responses received from over 150 industry members. Majority of respondents (48%) belonged to large-scale sector, while medium and small scale companies comprised of 17 per cent and 35 per cent respectively. Further, the largest 50 per cent of respondents were from services, followed by 44 per cent from manufacturing and 6 per cent from primary sector.
A majority (55%) of the respondents expect GDP growth to settle in the range of 6.5-7.5 per cent in FY15. This is directly in line with 7.4 per cent GDP growth in FY15 as per the revised estimates of CSO. In a welcome sign, while GDP is expected to register high growth rate, inflationary expectations have moderated. A considerable proportion (72%) of respondents believe that wholesale inflation will remain below 6.0 per cent level in FY15, which should provide legroom to RBI to soften the monetary policy in favour of growth.
In further indication of macro-economic strengthening, around 72 per cent of respondents expected current account deficit (CAD) to be less than 2.5 per cent (of GDP) in FY15. India’s CAD stood at 1.8 per cent in first three quarters of FY15, after it narrowed sharply to 1.7 per cent in FY14 from 4.7 per cent in FY13.
Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of UltraTech Cement Ltd, DB Corp and Infosys with target price of Rs 1846,Rs 340 and Rs 400 to Rs 440 respectively
Narnolia Securities Limited expect that the KPIT Tech company would report better earnings with margin ramp up and signing of larger deals in next couple of quarters. Now, we upgrade our view on the stock from “Neutral” to “Buy” with a price target of Rs 185. At a CMP of Rs 160, stock trades at 9.5x FY15E EPS.
MindTree: Rupee appreciation drags revenue growth during Q1FY15IndiaNotes.com
Onsite pricing was up 2.7%, while offshore pricing declined by 0.5%. In INR terms revenues grew at a slower rate by 2.4% QoQ impacted by rupee appreciation during the quarter. EBITDA grew by 41.5% YoY, but fell by 4.9%.
• Historically, financial crisis have generally occurred due to endogenous factors – economic imbalances like high crude prices, high inflation, etc. This time it is different since macros being stable, the current crisis is the result of an external factor i.e. COVID-19
• India’s long term growth story remains intact since it is better placed in terms of fundamentals
• We believe, Emerging Markets have the potential to recover better than Developed Markets & that Value as a theme performs better than Growth during recovery phase. Hence, we recommend investing in ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund
• Owing to the temporary economic crisis due to COVID-19, we recommend investing in ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund
• Given further uncertainty regarding the spread of COVID-19, volatility is expected to prevail. We recommend investing in ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund to manage volatility • We remain positive on the Smallcap space as valuations are reasonable & recommend investing in ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund
• Post any crisis, sectoral leadership has changed in the past. Aim to invest in future potential leaders through ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund
CMC has recent healthy demand environment across the IT space, Narnolia Securities Limited positive for the "BUY" view on the stock and we revise our target price from Rs1490 to Rs1690.
Shree Cement very good strategy for capacity expansion. We are positive to buy stocks with Target Price Rs.4791. Also why positive outlook in sector 2014 and earning guidance for FY15E on IT industry
Narnolia Securities Limited initiates the dealing of pipeline with Persistent System focusing on the increase of the share of IP-led revenues in its portfolio. Looking at the revenue growth, we upgrade the stock and expect for better outcome.
As there has been a trend of performance concentration across market cycles, different investment styles may perform at different phases of a market cycle. Our Market Outlook for November 2020
http://bit.ly/GEWaout2014
Les dirigeants sont de plus en plus conscients du potentiel inexploité de l'Afrique sub-saharienne. La population de l'Afrique subsaharienne est devrait croître plus rapidement que dans toutes les autres régions du monde. En conséquence, en 2040, le Continent africain devrait avoir la plus grande force de travail du monde et pourrait avoir une croissance économique plus rapide que n'importe quelle autre région.
TCS’ 1QFY15 revenue grew 5.5% QoQ to USD3.6b (and 4.8% QoQ CC), in line with estimate. EBITDA margin declined 210bp QoQ to 28.8%, v/s estimate of 29.2%. EBIT margin (26.3%) was lower than est. (27.6%) due to a one-time depreciation charge.
• Owing to growth concerns, Global Central Banks are reducing interest rates. The Reserve Bank of India
(RBI) too is expected to follow suits and may deliver 25-50 bps rate cut
• Central Banks are expected to continue with the loose monetary policy
• Food inflation is beginning to see some moderation although CPI Inflation continues to remain above
RBI‟s comfort zone. RBI‟s operation twist and LTRO too bodes well for the bond markets
• In light of the above factors, we have added duration across our portfolios as we have become positive
on the duration segment in the near term
• We continue to believe that the best strategy would be to create portfolio maturity in the range of 2-5
years
• We also continue to remain positive on the accrual space, as the divergence between Gsec/AAA & AA/A
yields persist.
We believe that the divergence between Value and Growth stocks continues to prevail, & that volatility is a factor which is inherent in equity as an asset class.
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1. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 1
Sector Preview:
Robust USD Revenue growth expected in Q2FY15, led by seasonality & improved demand scenario, however, cross currency headwinds likely to have
some impact; INR revenues to be higher due to INR depreciation
We expect the IT players (both Tie I & II) to witness strong USD revenue growth in Q2, led by seasonality & improved demand scenario across the verticals &
geographies. On the back of healthy volume growth and stable pricing scenario, we expect Tier 1 players to report USD revenue growth in the range of 2.5-7.5% Q-o-Q
with TCS likely to lead the pack with growth at the higher end. IT companies are expected to witness budget flush from clients on discretionary and capital spending.
Verticals like BFS are likely to do well. We expect good growth in major IT markets viz; US & Europe.
USD Revenue growth of Tier II players is also likely to be stronger in the range of 3-6.5% Q-o-Q with Persistent Systems likely to lead the pack on the back of strong
growth expected in IP led revenues. Cyient, KPIT tech & Hexaware are also likely to report healthy growth, while Mphasis could witness a sequential decline in revenues
due to fall in revenues from Hewlett-Packard Company and Digital Risk.
Cross currency movements during the quarter (due to depreciation of Euro & GBP by ~6% & 5% respectively vs. USD) are likely to have negative impact on the USD
revenue growth (by 60-80 bps Q-o-Q) of IT pack. However, revenues in rupee terms are likely to be higher due to INR depreciation vs. USD during the quarter (by ~1.5%).
Sector to witness Q-o-Q margin expansion on overall basis on the back of absence of visa costs, wage hikes & INR depreciation
We expect the operational performance of Tier I & II IT players to be better in Q2. We expect most of the companies to report expansion in EBITDA margins on the back
of absence of visa costs, wage hikes & INR depreciation, except for a few players like Wipro, HCL Tech & Mindtree, whose margins could be impacted due to wage hikes
& higher S&M investments. Companies like Infosys, KPIT Tech, Cyient, Tech Mahindra are likely to witness sequential margin expansion. TCS is expected to report stable
margins.
Focus will be on the Managements’ Commentary on IT sector outlook
Some of the key things, which would be tracked closely by the market participants in the management commentary by the IT companies include i) Outlook on client
spending (discretionary / non discretionary) and project ramp ups in top clients; ii) Demand environment in US and Europe and Continental Europe; iii) Comments on
demand and pricing trends in financial services vertical; iv) Key verticals/Geography growth/de-growth expectation; v) Clarity on fresh hiring; vi) Margins trajectory; vii)
Expectations on forex moves. In case of Infosys commentary on growth strategy from the new MD & CEO Mr. Vishal Sikka would hold a lot of importance.
Better than expected Q2 numbers and optimistic guidance could result in further PE expansion
Improving consumer confidence and structural policy decisions in the developed markets are providing the required momentum to kick-start the economy on to the
path of recovery. In the emerging markets, consumer spending and investment sentiments have improved significantly. The global multilateral agencies have forecasted
RETAIL RESEARCH Oct 08, 2014IT Sector Preview – Q2FY15
2. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 2
improved recovery prospects for the global economy and have suggested that the growth momentum is likely to gain momentum over the next few years. This could
result in demand turnaround, enabling the corporate players in the recovering economies to enhance their CAPEX program including incremental IT spending. The Indian
IT companies are well placed to capture the upswing in the demand uptick, which is expected from developed & emerging economies. IT companies with their ability to
generate strong cash flows & strong ROEs in a rapidly changing technological landscape would continue to remain long term structural investment plays.
Global recovery, healthy deal pipeline, increasing M&A activity in Tech at high valuations and stability in rupee leave good scope for expansion in PE of IT sector
(especially in large cap stocks which continue to show improved financial performance) in the near to medium term. Part of re-rating has already begun, as evident from
the fact that the BSE IT index has gained 15.6% since July 2014 till date, clearly outperforming the BSE Sensex, which has gained 3.4%. This outperformance & the sector
PE expansion could continue in the near term (after a brief correction) if Q2 results are better than expected & management guidance on IT sector outlook is optimistic.
Particulars (Rs. In Million) Quarter End Q2FY15E
Infosys Q1FY15 Q2FY14 Sequential USD revenue growth could be 2.8-3% Q-o-Q, which would be largely volume driven. Pricing is more or less expected
to remain stable. Better traction would result in decent growth across most of the verticals except in retail, life sciences &
healthcare & hi-tech, which continue to face challenges. Deal wins in the recent past would drive the revenue growth. Cross
currency headwinds are likely to impact the USD revenue growth by 50-60 bps Q-o-Q. INR revenue growth would be relatively
higher due to rupee depreciation during the quarter. (~1.5% Q-o-Q).
Absence of Wage hikes, visa cost & rupee depreciation could result in 50-60 bps Q-o-Q expansion in EBITDA margins.
Key thing to watch out for in the management commentary would be the change / restoration in FY15 annual revenue
guidance, outlook on discretionery spending, outlook on demand from key verticals/geographies, traction in deal pipeline,
trend in margins going forward and business strategy by new CEO, Dr. Vishal Sikka.
We expect FY15 USD revenue growth guidance to be maintained in the range of 7-9%. In an investor conference held on 26
August 2014, Infosys' COO UB Pravin Rao reportedly reiterated the company's 7% to 9% US dollar revenue growth guidance for
FY15. Mr. Rao also reportedly said that Infosys would look to maintain operating profit margins at 24-25% for FY15.
Net Revenue 127700 129650
Operating Profit 34410 33890
PAT (Adjusted) 28860 26260
EPS (Rs.) 50.5 45.9
TCS Q1FY15 Q2FY14 USD revenues are likely to grow by 7-7.5% Q-o-Q, largely volume driven. ~2.5% growth is likely to be contributed by integration
of Mitsubishi JV (management expects $100 mn contribution from the JV in Q2). We expect the pricing to remain stable. Cross
currency headwinds could impact the USD revenues growth by 80 bps Q-o-Q (as stated by the management in its quarterly
analyst interaction in Sept). INR revenue growth is likely to be higher on the back of INR depreciation.
In its quarterly analyst interaction, the management had stated that it expects BFS to accelerate in Q2, though weakness is
likely to remain in insurance. Media, Travel & Hospitality, Life Sciences are likely to be weaker than Q1. Geographically, Indian
business growth is likely to be strong with pick up likely in the deal activity. Asia pacific region would grow at a higher rate than
the company average growth in Q2. However, it expects Europe to be soft in Q2 due to holidays in July and August.
The management expects EBIT margins to remain stable in Q2. It stated that the absence of wage hike and one-time
depreciation impact (which existed in Q1) is likely to offset the impact of JV consolidation charge on EBIT margins. Other
income could be lower by Rs. 300 cr led by special dividend payment in Q2 (Rs. 150 bn announced on the occasion of the 10th
anniversary of the IPO) and forex losses. We don’t expect any major variation to the management estimates.
Commentary on demand outlook and discretionery spending, client budgets, view on business ramp ups & pipeline conversion,
pricing trends, outlook on BFSI & retail verticals & margin trajectory are key things to watch out.
Net Sales 221110 209772
Operating Profit 63670 66390
PAT (Adjusted) 50578 47018
EPS (Rs.) 25.8 24.0
Wipro Q1FY15 Q2FY14 Q-o-Q USD IT revenue growth could be 2.5-2.75%, within the range guided by the company (1.7% to 4% Q-o-Q). The growth
3. RETAIL RESEARCH Page | 3
Net Sales 111358 107727 factors in revenue contribution from recently signed ATCO deal. The growth would be largely volume driven and pricing is
expected to remain more or less stable. Cross currency headwinds could impact the USD revenue growth by 50-60 bps.
However, Q-o-Q INR revenue growth is likely to be higher due to rupee depreciation during the quarter.
EBIT margins are likely to decline on the back of 2 months impact from wage hikes (w.e.f. June 01, 2014).
Key things to watch out: Management commentary on Q3FY15 USD revenue growth guidance (could be in the range of 2-4% Q-
o-Q), demand environment, commentary on large deal wins, ramp up and budget trends.
EBIT 23771 22422
PAT (Adjusted) 21032 19321
EPS (Rs.) 8.5 7.8
HCLTech Q4JY14 Q1JY14 USD Revenues are likely to grow by 3.5-3.6% Q-o-Q, which would be driven by growth in Infra management business and ramp
up of large deals signed over the last two to three quarters. Growth would be largely volume driven, while pricing is expected to
remain more or less flat. Pickup in core services growth witnessed over the last few quarters is likely to continue. Cross currency
headwinds are likely to impact the USD revenue growth by 60-70 bps Q-o-Q. However, Q-o-Q INR growth is likely to be higher
due to rupee depreciation.
EBITDA margins are expected decline on the back of wage hikes and higher S&M investments.
Deal pipeline, demand outlook for IMS and IT services, revival in volume growth in ADM / BPO segment, margin trends, outlook
on discretionery spending would be keenly watched in the management commentary.
Net Sales 84240 79610
Operating Profit 22170 20930
PAT (Adjusted) 18359.5 14160
EPS (Rs.) 26.3 20.3
Analyst: Mehernosh K. Panthaki – IT, FMCG & Midcaps; Email ID: mehernosh.panthaki@hdfcsec.com
RETAIL RESEARCH Tel: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Corporate Office
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022)
2496 5066 Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: hdfcsecretailresearch@hdfcsec.com
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by HDFC Securities Limited and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to
others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or
complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We may have from time to time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment
banking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this document. This report is intended for non-Institutional Clients