The Reserve Bank of India has decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 8.0% while making some adjustments to liquidity measures. Headline inflation has declined due to lower food prices but core inflation remains high, suggesting some demand pressures persist. GDP growth is projected to be 5-6% in 2014-15 if inflation remains on target. The policy will focus on keeping inflation on its disinflationary glidepath to hit 8% by January 2015 and 6% by January 2016. Some progress was made on developmental and regulatory policies including banking structure reforms and financial market development.
http://bit.ly/GEWaout2014
Les dirigeants sont de plus en plus conscients du potentiel inexploité de l'Afrique sub-saharienne. La population de l'Afrique subsaharienne est devrait croître plus rapidement que dans toutes les autres régions du monde. En conséquence, en 2040, le Continent africain devrait avoir la plus grande force de travail du monde et pourrait avoir une croissance économique plus rapide que n'importe quelle autre région.
UK economy is showing signs of posting a strong pull-back. China on the other hand is facing the prospects of a slower growth this year. We cover this in the section on *Global Trends* in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on *Domestic Trends*, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, Balance of Payments, IIP and Inflation during the month of February 2014.
In *Investment Tracker*, we analyse the latest data on investment proposals.
The *Sectoral* spotlight for this issue is on Travel & Tourism, which holds strategic importance in the Indian economy providing several socio economic benefits.
In *Focus of the Month*, we discuss the employment creation challenge that the economy is facing currently. In addition to our own analysis, we have carried articles from eminent experts on the subject.
http://bit.ly/GEWaout2014
Les dirigeants sont de plus en plus conscients du potentiel inexploité de l'Afrique sub-saharienne. La population de l'Afrique subsaharienne est devrait croître plus rapidement que dans toutes les autres régions du monde. En conséquence, en 2040, le Continent africain devrait avoir la plus grande force de travail du monde et pourrait avoir une croissance économique plus rapide que n'importe quelle autre région.
UK economy is showing signs of posting a strong pull-back. China on the other hand is facing the prospects of a slower growth this year. We cover this in the section on *Global Trends* in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on *Domestic Trends*, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, Balance of Payments, IIP and Inflation during the month of February 2014.
In *Investment Tracker*, we analyse the latest data on investment proposals.
The *Sectoral* spotlight for this issue is on Travel & Tourism, which holds strategic importance in the Indian economy providing several socio economic benefits.
In *Focus of the Month*, we discuss the employment creation challenge that the economy is facing currently. In addition to our own analysis, we have carried articles from eminent experts on the subject.
It gives me a pleasure to present the summary and analysis of Union Budget 2016.
While you may have the snapshot, here is a document which will not only give you crisp highlights, but would also decode the impact of Budget 2016 on You, Your company and Your sector.
Hope you find this analysis useful in taking business decisions and align your company's strategy with over all economic climate for the upcoming financial year.
Would love to hear your feedback on the usefulness of the same.
Thanks a lot.
In the July-August 2014 Issue of Economy Matters, we track the economic developments in US and China in Global Trends. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Fiscal, Trade & Monetary Policy. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the Implications of Jobless Growth. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on Textiles Sector. Special Feature discusses the importance of Hospitality Sector in India.
Market outlook April 2021 - ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
The resurgence of the pandemic may delay the recovery and growth of the Indian Economy. And with limited room for rate cuts going forward, investors could benefit from active duration management and accrual strategies.
To know more, read our Market Outlook for April 2021.
On the back of healthy volume growth and stable pricing scenario, we expect Tier 1 players to report USD revenue growth in the range of 2.5-7.5% Q-o-Q with TCS likely to lead the pack with growth at the higher end.
Triggers to watch out for -
1. General Election Outcome
2. Key Reforms Implemented over 5 years
3. Analysis of market returns post-election
4. High-frequency indicators
5. FPI flows trend
A detailed insight into a monthly equity and fixed income market outlook.
Read the full document to know more.
FICCI's latest Economic Outlook Survey puts across the GDP growth estimate for the year 2014-15 at 5.3%, with a minimum and a maximum range of 4.9% and 5.8%. This is a tad lower than the 5.5% growth estimate put out by the economists in the previous survey round and is mainly on account of bleak prospects for performance of the agriculture sector due to sub-par monsoon forecast.
Regarding the performance of the industrial sector this year. The median forecast for industrial growth for 2014-15 is pegged at 3.1% and for agricultural sector at 2.1%. Further, services sector growth is expected at 7.0% this year and is only marginally higher than 6.8% growth recorded in 2013-14.
On Inflation, the El Nino effect is expected to fuel inflationary pressure going ahead.
It gives me a pleasure to present the summary and analysis of Union Budget 2015.
While you may have the snapshot, here is a document which will not only give you crisp highlights, but would also decode the impact of Budget 2015 on You, Your company and Your sector.
Hope you find this analysis useful in taking business decisions and align your company's strategy with over all economic climate for the upcoming financial year.
Would love to hear your feedback on the usefulness of the same.
UK economy is on the mend. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, IIP, Inflation, monetary policy, Fiscal & BoP Scenario. In Corporate Performance, we analyse the latest data for 4QFY14. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Ease of Doing Business in India. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on Reviving Growth.
It gives me a pleasure to present the summary and analysis of Union Budget 2016.
While you may have the snapshot, here is a document which will not only give you crisp highlights, but would also decode the impact of Budget 2016 on You, Your company and Your sector.
Hope you find this analysis useful in taking business decisions and align your company's strategy with over all economic climate for the upcoming financial year.
Would love to hear your feedback on the usefulness of the same.
Thanks a lot.
In the July-August 2014 Issue of Economy Matters, we track the economic developments in US and China in Global Trends. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Fiscal, Trade & Monetary Policy. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the Implications of Jobless Growth. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on Textiles Sector. Special Feature discusses the importance of Hospitality Sector in India.
Market outlook April 2021 - ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
The resurgence of the pandemic may delay the recovery and growth of the Indian Economy. And with limited room for rate cuts going forward, investors could benefit from active duration management and accrual strategies.
To know more, read our Market Outlook for April 2021.
On the back of healthy volume growth and stable pricing scenario, we expect Tier 1 players to report USD revenue growth in the range of 2.5-7.5% Q-o-Q with TCS likely to lead the pack with growth at the higher end.
Triggers to watch out for -
1. General Election Outcome
2. Key Reforms Implemented over 5 years
3. Analysis of market returns post-election
4. High-frequency indicators
5. FPI flows trend
A detailed insight into a monthly equity and fixed income market outlook.
Read the full document to know more.
FICCI's latest Economic Outlook Survey puts across the GDP growth estimate for the year 2014-15 at 5.3%, with a minimum and a maximum range of 4.9% and 5.8%. This is a tad lower than the 5.5% growth estimate put out by the economists in the previous survey round and is mainly on account of bleak prospects for performance of the agriculture sector due to sub-par monsoon forecast.
Regarding the performance of the industrial sector this year. The median forecast for industrial growth for 2014-15 is pegged at 3.1% and for agricultural sector at 2.1%. Further, services sector growth is expected at 7.0% this year and is only marginally higher than 6.8% growth recorded in 2013-14.
On Inflation, the El Nino effect is expected to fuel inflationary pressure going ahead.
It gives me a pleasure to present the summary and analysis of Union Budget 2015.
While you may have the snapshot, here is a document which will not only give you crisp highlights, but would also decode the impact of Budget 2015 on You, Your company and Your sector.
Hope you find this analysis useful in taking business decisions and align your company's strategy with over all economic climate for the upcoming financial year.
Would love to hear your feedback on the usefulness of the same.
UK economy is on the mend. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, IIP, Inflation, monetary policy, Fiscal & BoP Scenario. In Corporate Performance, we analyse the latest data for 4QFY14. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Ease of Doing Business in India. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on Reviving Growth.
Industrial production growth continues to remain tepid, thus necessitating the need for urgent redressal steps from the government in the form of expediting execution of approved projects and providing a competitive market for coal and mining sectors. Global headwinds have not receded fully, with growth in Euro Area expected to remain lackadaisical for few more quarters. Japan and China are passing through a phase of below potential growth too. Under this backdrop of subdued global growth, policymakers need to announce more policy actions like 'Make in India' initiative and flexible labour policy to help lift domestic growth to a higher trajectory.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we cover the latest IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the issue of deflation facing many advanced economies in the Section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, we analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Trade. We also discuss the Corporate performance for Q2FY15 in this section. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the MSME sector. In Focus of the Month, sectoral experts provide their insightful viewpoints on the topic ‘Coal: Challenges and Way Forward’.
Highlights on Global Central Bank Policy Rates as on July 2014Jhunjhunwalas
Highlights on Global Central Bank Policy Rates as on July 2014
#CentralBankOfHungary reduced BaseRate by 20 basis points to 2.10% with effect from 23rd July 2014
#Hungary #MagyarNemztiBank #MNB
#CentralBankOfRussia raised #KeyRate to 8.0 % on July 25th 2014 , #Russia #CBR #BankOfRussia
#ReserveBankOfNewZealand raised OfficialCashRate by 25 basis points to 3.50% on 24th July 2014 , #RBNZ #NewZealand
#CentralBankofNigeria retains #MonetaryPolicyRate at 12% #MPR,#MPC Monetary Policy Comittee met on 21st and 22nd July 2014.
#MonetaryPolicy of #CentralBankofTrinidadAndTobago maintains #RepoRate at 2.75%
#BankOfIsrael , As on 28th July 2014 the #MonetaryCommittee reduces the #InterestRate for August 2014 by 0.25 percentage points, to 0.5 percent, #BankIsrael #CentralBankOfIsrael #Israel
Euro Area is recovering slowly, with its major member countries registering lower-than-expected growth rates in the third quarter. Major Asian economies have shown diverse growth trends in the last few quarters. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, Current Account, IIP and Inflation data during the month of December 2013.
The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Electricity, which remains an important contributor to GDP growth. We evaluate the impact of the Electricity Act, 2003 on the sector’s performance.
In the Special Article, we provide a snapshot of India’s exports sector along with analyzing the important sectors in exports such as services and tourism.
Team MGM & Company has compiled the attached Synopsis of Union Budget 2015.
Hope you will find this information useful. We are eagerly looking forward to your valuable comments & suggestions for future improvements.
Please note the attached abstract was complied yesterday just after announcement of Union Budget; we are expecting further clarity along with detailed interpretation & information to follow soon from the Government.
With inflation spiking to the highest-ever levels, the Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad has announced to raise the interest rate to an all-time high level of 17%.
In August-September, 2014 issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the recently held G20 Summit; movement in oil prices and Ukraine situation in the section on Global Trends. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, IIP, Inflation and Trade. In the section on Taxation, the urgency of implementing GST in India is discussed. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the Food Processing Industry. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on improving investment in Infrastructure.
Global economic activity is projected to slowly gain momentum, but growth will continue
to be below potential and employment gains will remain weak, says the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2013 mid-year update, launched on 23 May 2013.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/index.shtml
From ELANA Trading: Macroeconomic and Market Outlook 2015 „Bulgaria: Back on ...ELANA Group
This research report offers a thorough view on the major macroeconomic trends in Bulgaria, looking also into all internal and external factors such as crisis in Russia and Ukraine, as well as Greece turmoil. The outlook includes a snapshot of the Bulgarian stock market and its movers & shakers as well as ELANA Trading analysts top picks.
Some analysts points:
- We are cautious for 2015, but looking for a GDP growth pick up in 2016.
- Factors to watch during in 2015 would be the first decisive moves for reforms of the new coalition government, Greece and the crisis in Ukraine.
- The recent capital market decline provides good buying opportunities in various sectors as banks and financial services, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, etc.
- Upcoming IT IPO to boost market vitality.
Complete report of our Economic Outlook Survey for fiscal 13-14 indicates a a moderation in growth going ahead. The survey results indicate GDP growth to slow down to 5.0% in the current fiscal year. This is a downward revision from the 6.0% growth estimate that was reported in the previous round of the survey.
This survey was conducted in the months of August / September 2013 and drew responses from leading economists primarily from the banking and financial services sector.
Portugal: Carta de Intenções, Memorando de Económico e Financeiro Políticas ...Cláudio Carneiro
A seguir é uma Carta de Intenções do Governo de Portugal, que
descreve as políticas que Portugal pretende implementar no contexto da sua
pedido de apoio financeiro do FMI. O documento, que é propriedade
de Portugal, está sendo disponibilizado no site do FMI, com o
membro como um serviço para os usuários do site do FMI.
28 de marco de 2014
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
Yes of course, you can easily start mining pi network coin today and sell to legit pi vendors in the United States.
Here the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network #pi coins #legit #passive income
#US
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
1. ेस काशनी PRESS RELEASE
संचार वभाग, क य कायालय, एस.बी.एस.माग, मुंबई-400001
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNICATION, Central Office, S.B.S.Marg, Mumbai-400001
फोन/Phone: 91 22 2266 0502 फै स/Fax: 91 22 22660358
भारतीय रज़व बक
RESERVE BANK OF INDIA
वेबसाइट : www.rbi.org.in/hindi
Website : www.rbi.org.in
इ-मेल email: helpdoc@rbi.org.in
April 01, 2014
First Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2014-15
By Dr. Raghuram G. Rajan, Governor
Part A: Monetary Policy
Monetary and Liquidity Measures
On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic
situation, it has been decided to:
· keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF)
unchanged at 8.0 per cent;
· keep the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks unchanged at 4.0 per
cent of net demand and time liability (NDTL); and
· increase the liquidity provided under 7-day and 14-day term repos from 0.5
per cent of NDTL of the banking system to 0.75 per cent, and decrease the
liquidity provided under overnight repos under the LAF from 0.5 per cent of
bank-wise NDTL to 0.25 per cent with immediate effect.
Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF will remain unchanged at
7.0 per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 9.0
per cent.
Assessment
Since the Third Quarter Review of January 2014, global activity appears to
have moderated on slower growth in the US, the UK and Japan, continuing
sluggishness in the Euro area and a subdued pick-up in emerging and developing
economies, restrained by the uncertain external demand environment as well as by
localised cyclical and structural constraints. For a number of emerging markets,
further tightening of external financing conditions and renewed volatility of capital
flows are the biggest risks to their outlook. Going forward, global growth is likely to
strengthen in the rest of the year, with risks tilted to the downside.
Domestically, real GDP growth continued to be modest in Q3 of 2013-14, with
some strengthening of activity in services such as trade, hotels, transport and
communication, and financing, real estate and business services. Despite some
positive movement in more recent data, industrial activity continues to be a drag on
the economy, with retrenchment in both consumption and investment demand
reflected in the contraction of output of consumer durables as well as capital goods.
In the quarters ahead, the boost provided by robust agricultural production in 2013
may wane. Moreover, the outlook for the 2014 south-west monsoon appears
uncertain. Sluggishness in industrial activity, exports and several categories of
services underlines the need to revitalise productivity and competitiveness.
2. 2
Retail inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI) moderated for the
third month in succession in February 2014, driven lower by the sharp disinflation in
food prices, although prices of fruits, milk and products have started to firm up.
Excluding food and fuel, however, retail inflation remained sticky at around 8 per
cent. This suggests that some demand pressures are still at play.
The merchandise trade deficit was 22 per cent lower in April-February 2013-14
than its level a year ago, due to the large decline in non-oil imports. The steady
narrowing of the trade deficit over the year has shrunk the current account deficit
(CAD) to 0.9 per cent of GDP in Q3 of 2013-14. For the year as a whole, the CAD is
expected to be about 2.0 per cent of GDP. Most recently, however, export growth
has slowed, partly because of slowdown in demand in partner countries as well as a
softening of prices of exports of petroleum products and gems and jewellery (offset
by a reduction in the prices of oil and gold imports). Whether the export slowdown
persists as global growth picks up once again remains to be seen. In February, there
was a turnaround in portfolio flows as investors largely priced in the effects of taper
by the US Fed and responded to economic and geo-political developments in
emerging markets with re-allocations. With sustained inflows in the form of portfolio
flows, foreign direct investment (FDI) and external commercial borrowings, external
financing conditions turned comfortable. Inflows, augmented by repayments by public
sector oil marketing companies of their foreign currency obligations to the Reserve
Bank during March, have led to an increase in reserves.
Turning to liquidity, envisaging pressures from large currency demand and tax
outflows from mid-March, a 21-day term repo of `500 billion was conducted on March
14 and 7-day term repo auctions of `100 billion on March 19 and 26, in addition to
the regular 14-day term repo of `400 billion on March 21. A 5-day term repo for a
notified amount of `200 billion was conducted on March 28 to facilitate non-disruptive
banking operations during the annual closing of accounts. Access to the MSF on
March 29 and 31 (holidays) was also allowed for this purpose. The Reserve Bank will
continue to monitor the liquidity conditions and actively manage liquidity to ensure
adequate flow of credit to the productive sectors.
Policy Stance and Rationale
Since December 2013, the sharper than expected disinflation in vegetable
prices has enabled a sizable fall in headline inflation. Looking ahead, vegetable
prices have entered their seasonal trough and further softening is unlikely.
Meanwhile, CPI inflation excluding food and fuel has remained flat.
There are risks to the central forecast of 8 per cent CPI inflation by January
2015 stemming from a less-than-normal monsoon due to possible el nino effects;
uncertainty on the setting of minimum support prices for agricultural commodities and
the setting of other administered prices, especially of fuel, fertiliser and electricity; the
outlook for fiscal policy; geo-political developments and their impact on international
commodity prices. There will also be a downward statistical pull on CPI inflation
exerted by base effects of high inflation during June-November 2013. It is critical to
look through any transient effects, including these base effects, which could
temporarily soften headline inflation during 2014 (Chart 1).
3. 3
The Reserve Bank’s policy stance will be firmly focussed on keeping the
economy on a disinflationary glide path that is intended to hit 8 per cent CPI inflation
by January 2015 and 6 per cent by January 2016. At the current juncture, it is
appropriate to hold the policy rate, while allowing the rate increases undertaken
during September 2013-January 2014 to work their way through the economy.
Furthermore, if inflation continues along the intended glide path, further policy
tightening in the near term is not anticipated at this juncture.
Contingent upon the desired inflation outcome, real GDP growth is projected
to pick up from a little below 5 per cent in 2013-14 to a range of 5 to 6 per cent in
2014-15 albeit with downside risks to the central estimate of 5.5 per cent (Chart 2).
Lead indicators do not point to any sustained revival in industry and services as yet,
and the outlook for the agricultural sector is contingent upon the timely arrival and
spread of the monsoon. Easing of domestic supply bottlenecks and progress on the
implementation of stalled projects already cleared should brighten up the growth
outlook, as would stronger anticipated export growth as the world economy picks up.
In pursuance of the Dr. Urjit R. Patel Committee’s recommendation to de-
emphasise overnight “guaranteed-access” windows for liquidity management and
progressively conduct liquidity management through term repos, the Reserve Bank
4. 4
has decided to further reduce access to overnight repos under the LAF while
compensating fully with a commensurate expansion of the market’s access to term
repos from the Reserve Bank. The primary objective is to improve the transmission of
policy impulses across the interest rate spectrum. The term repo has evolved as a
useful indicator of underlying liquidity conditions. It also allows market participants to
hold liquidity for a longer period, thereby providing the impetus for engaging in term
transactions in the market, evolving market-based benchmarks for pricing various
financial products and also improving efficiency in cash/treasury management.
Liquidity conditions have tightened in March, partly on account of year-end
‘window dressing’ by banks, though an extraordinary infusion of liquidity by the
Reserve Bank has mitigated the tightness. The Reserve Bank will propose measures
to reduce such practices.
The second bi-monthly monetary policy statement is scheduled on Tuesday,
June 3, 2014.
Part B: Developmental and Regulatory Policies
This part of the Statement reviews the progress on various developmental and
regulatory policy measures announced by the Reserve Bank in recent policy
statements and also sets out new measures.
In the Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2013-14 announced in
October 2013, the Reserve Bank set out a five-pillar framework to guide its
developmental and regulatory measures. Noteworthy progress has since been made
in implementing measures within this framework.
Some of the recommendations of the Expert Committee to Revise and
Strengthen the Monetary Policy Framework (Chairman: Dr. Urjit R. Patel) have been
implemented including adoption of the new CPI (combined) as the key measure of
inflation, explicit recognition of the glide path for disinflation, transition to a bi-monthly
monetary policy cycle, progressive reduction in access to overnight liquidity under the
LAF at the fixed repo rate and corresponding increase in access to liquidity through
term repos, and introduction of longer tenor term repos.
On strengthening banking structure, which is the second pillar, the High Level
Advisory Committee (Chairman: Dr. Bimal Jalan) has recently submitted its
recommendations to the Reserve Bank on the licensing of new banks. The Reserve
Bank will announce in-principle approval for new licences after consulting with the
Election Commission. Immediately afterwards, the Reserve Bank will start working on
the framework for on-tap licensing as well as differentiated bank licences, building on
the Discussion Paper on “Banking Structure in India – The Way Forward” placed on
the Reserve Bank’s website in August 2013 and using the learning from the recent
licensing process. The intent is to expand the variety and efficiency of players in the
banking system while maintaining financial stability. The Reserve Bank will also be
open to banking mergers, provided competition and stability are not compromised.
Progress has been made on a number of regulatory and supervisory
measures. Based on the comments/feedback received on the draft framework for
dealing with domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), the final framework is
proposed to be issued by end-May 2014. As the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR)
stipulated by the Basel Committee becomes a standard with effect from January 1,
2015 it is proposed to issue guidelines relating to Basel III LCR and Liquidity Risk
Monitoring tools by end-May 2014. Updated guidelines on stress testing, drawing
from Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) principles and subsequent
global developments, were issued in December 2013. Capital and provisioning
requirements on banks' advances to corporates with unhedged foreign currency
5. 5
exposures were specified in January 2014. The draft report of the Internal Working
Group (Chairman: Shri B. Mahapatra), which was constituted to operationalise the
countercyclical capital buffer framework in India, was placed on the Reserve Bank's
website for comments in December 2013. On the basis of the recommendations of
the Committee on Comprehensive Financial Services for Small Businesses and Low
Income Households (Chairman: Dr. Nachiket Mor) to encourage banks to actively
manage their exposures to various sectors, including priority sectors, it is proposed to
prescribe certain additional disclosure requirements in the financial statements by
end-June 2014.
Following industry-wide concerns about asset quality and the consequential
impact on the performance/profitability of banks, the Reserve Bank has extended the
transitional period for full implementation of Basel III Capital Regulations in India up
to March 31, 2019, instead of as on March 31, 2018. This will also align full
implementation of Basel III in India closer to the internationally agreed date of
January 1, 2019.
The Reserve Bank has moved over to risk-based supervision (RBS) for
scheduled commercial banks (SCBs), starting with banks that were more prepared.
Based on the experience gained from the completion of Phase I and the feedback
received on the RBS framework from banks, the framework is being fine-tuned.
Banks are also being advised to assess their risk management architecture,
practices, related processes and management information systems (MIS) to facilitate
their switch over to RBS in Phase II.
As regards the third pillar on the broadening and deepening of financial
markets, Inflation Indexed National Saving Securities (IINSSs) for retail investors
were issued in December 2013. To expand investor demand, certain design changes
are required. Some such as an increase in the limit for individual investors and trusts
have been implemented. Others such as tradability (and consequently, the benefit of
indexation for capital gains tax) and issuance of securities with regular coupon flows
are being contemplated. Cash settled single bond 10 year Interest Rate Futures
(IRFs) were introduced by stock exchanges in January 2014. The Reserve Bank will
shortly issue guidelines that would allow banks to offer partial credit enhancements to
corporate bonds. As recommended by the Working Group on Enhancing Liquidity in
the Government Securities and Interest Rate Derivatives Markets (Chairman: Shri R.
Gandhi), the Reserve Bank proposes to introduce a market making scheme for
primary dealers (PDs) by allocating specific securities to PDs and ensuring
continuous availability of prices, with a suitable framework for assessing the
performance of PDs. It will also examine the possibility of limited re-repo/re-
hypothecation of "repoed" government securities, subject to appropriate risk control
measures.
The Committee on Financial Benchmarks (Chairman: Shri P. Vijaya Bhaskar)
submitted its report in February 2014. The Committee has recommended several
measures/principles to be adopted in respect of major Indian rupee interest rate and
foreign exchange benchmarks to strengthen their quality, the methodology by which
they are set and the governance framework. Banks and PDs are being advised to
strengthen their governance frameworks on benchmark submissions, subject to the
supervisory review of the Reserve Bank. Other recommendations will be
implemented in consultation with the Fixed Income, Money Market and Derivatives
Association (FIMMDA) and Foreign Exchange Dealers Association of India (FEDAI).
The Reserve Bank will continue to work to ease entry while reducing risk to
foreign investors from the volatility of flows. The modalities for allowing FIIs to hedge
their currency risk by using exchange traded currency futures in the domestic
6. 6
exchanges are being finalised in consultation with the Securities and Exchange
Board of India (SEBI). In order to enhance hedging facilities for foreign investors in
debt instruments, it is proposed to allow them to hedge the coupon receipts falling
due during the next 12 months. Rebooking of cancelled contracts in case of
contracted exposures has been fully restored. It is further proposed to allow all
resident individuals, firms and companies with actual foreign exchange exposures to
book foreign exchange derivative contracts up to US$ 250,000 on declaration,
subject to certain conditions.
Revised regulations under Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) for a
simplified foreign portfolio investor (FPI) regime have been notified in March 2014.
The Reserve Bank also proposes to simplify the know-your-customer (KYC)
procedures for opening bank accounts by FPIs. The Reserve Bank has also been
rationalising and expanding limits for FPI investments in debt markets. To encourage
longer maturity flows, investment limits in Treasury Bills were capped at US$ 5.5
billion in April 2013, even while the limit for long-term investors was increased by
US$ 5 billion in June 2013. As a further step towards encouraging longer-term flows,
investments by FPIs in G-Secs shall henceforth be permitted only in dated securities
of residual maturity of one year and above, and existing investment in Treasury Bills
will be allowed to taper off on maturity/sale. The overall limit for FPI investment in G-
Secs will, however, remain unchanged at US$ 30 billion, so the investment limits
vacated at the shorter end will be available at longer maturities. As regards foreign
direct investment (FDI), it has been decided to withdraw all the existing guidelines
relating to valuation in case of any acquisition/sale of shares and accordingly, such
transactions will henceforth be based on acceptable market practices. Operating
guidelines will be notified separately.
A comprehensive IT-based system namely, Export Data Processing and
Monitoring System (EDPMS) for effective monitoring, easier tracking and
reconciliation of export transactions was launched in February 2014. The data will be
shared among the stakeholders/agencies involved, and will allow more timely and
detailed information on exports as well as prevention of export-related fraud.
On financial inclusion, the fourth pillar, the recommendations of the Mor
Committee on accelerating the flow of credit to those at the bottom of the pyramid
and enlargement of catchment area of the Business Correspondents (BCs), including
through possible inclusion of new entities as BCs, are under examination. To
overcome the challenge of cash management of BCs which is impeding the scaling
up of the BC model, the Reserve Bank will collate best practices and issue a fresh
set of guidelines to commercial banks.
The Reserve Bank has released a concept paper on Trade Receivables and
Credit Exchange for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in March 2014
on its website for public feedback. The model outlined in the paper envisages a credit
exchange with both primary and secondary market segments that will help address
problems faced by the MSME segment on delayed payments and dependency on
their corporate buyers. After receiving feedback, the Reserve Bank will work towards
implementation.
With a view to ensuring fair and transparent credit pricing and to give a fillip to
the flow of credit to micro and small enterprises (MSEs) borrowers, it would be
desirable for SCBs to provide differential interest rates for MSEs and other borrowers
whose loans are covered under the credit guarantee scheme. SCBs are encouraged
to undertake a review of their loan policy governing extension of credit facilities to the
MSE sector and should consider using Board approved credit scoring models in their
evaluation of the loan proposals of MSE borrowers.
7. 7
Measures have been taken to expand banking services to the financially
excluded sections of society with the appropriate application of technology. The
GIRO Advisory Group (GAG) has recommended a tiered structure approach for a
centralised bill payment system that will enable inter-operability viz., (a) Bharat Bill
Payment System (BBPS) and (b) Bharat Bill Payment Operating Units (BBPOUs).
The recommendations of the GAG report are under examination. A Technical
Committee (Chairman: Shri B. Sambamurthy) set up to examine the challenges being
faced by banks in taking mobile banking forward for achieving financial inclusion
submitted its report in January 2014. This was placed in the public domain for
feedback. The recommendations of the Committee will be examined closely, and
plans for the way forward will be discussed with stakeholders.
Consumer protection is an integral aspect of financial inclusion. The Reserve
Bank proposes to frame comprehensive consumer protection regulations based on
domestic experience and global best practices. In the interest of their consumers,
banks should consider allowing their borrowers the possibility of prepaying floating
rate term loans without any penalty. Banks should also not take undue advantage of
customer difficulty or inattention. Instead of levying penal charges for non-
maintenance of minimum balance in ordinary savings bank accounts, banks should
limit services available on such accounts to those available to Basic Savings Bank
Deposit Accounts and restore the services when the balances improve to the
minimum required level. Banks should not levy penal charges for non-maintenance of
minimum balances in any inoperative account. Banks should also limit the liability of
customers in electronic banking transactions in cases where banks are not able to
prove customer negligence.
Under the fifth pillar, on improving the system's ability to deal with corporate
distress and financial institution distress by strengthening real and financial
restructuring as well as debt recovery, the Reserve Bank issued a framework for
revitalising distressed assets in the economy in January 2014. The framework lays
down guidelines for early recognition of financial distress, steps for prompt resolution
and fair recovery for lenders. It envisages centralised reporting and dissemination of
information on large credits, early formation of lenders' forums and incentives for
lenders and borrowers to agree on resolution and disincentives for both in the event
of failure to act in a timely way. Improvements in the current restructuring process
such as an independent evaluation of large value restructuring with a focus on
viability and fair sharing of gains and losses between promoters and creditors have
been mandated. Finally, a more liberal regulatory treatment of distressed asset sales,
particularly to asset reconstruction companies, has been provided. The framework
will be fully effective from today.
Following the announcement in the Second Quarter Review of October 30,
2013, a Working Group (Chairmen: Dr. Arvind Mayaram and Shri Anand Sinha) on a
Resolution Regime for Financial Institutions was constituted, which submitted its
report in January 2014. The Group has, inter alia, recommended the setting up of a
single Financial Resolution Authority (FRA), an early supervisory intervention
mechanism in the form of prompt corrective action (PCA) framework for all financial
institutions and a separate comprehensive legal framework providing necessary
powers and tools for orderly resolution of all financial institutions irrespective of
ownership. The Group's report will be disseminated for comments.
An overhaul of the extant regulatory framework for non-banking financial
companies (NBFCs) is underway to align it with several important developments
which have taken place in the financial sector. It is, therefore, proposed to keep in
abeyance, subject to certain exceptions, issue of Certificate of Registration (CoR) for
conducting NBFC business, except in the public interest, till an appropriate regulatory
8. 8
framework is put in place for the NBFC sector. Detailed notification will be issued
separately.
Going forward, this five-pillar approach will continue to guide the design and
calibration of developmental measures. With competition in the banking sector set to
increase, financial markets will play a complementary role, allowing banks to trade
their long term assets and match the maturity profile of assets and liabilities.
Simultaneously, the Reserve Bank will strive to increase the reach of financial
services to everyone, however remote or small, by using technology, new products,
and new entities to link people up to the formal financial system. Priority sector
lending will become an effective vehicle to promote greater financial access.
Concomitantly, the Reserve Bank will take steps for early recognition and resolution
of distress with a focus on putting real assets back to work in their best use.
Alpana Killawala
Press Release : 2013-2014/1925 Principal Chief General Manager