Slides for the talk that I held at the TOEK group meeting on the 25.05.2016.

1. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Is biodiversity declining?
Insights into the current debate
Lionel Hertzog
TOEK group meeting, 25.05.2016

2. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
What is assumed

3. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
What is biodiversity

4. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
The pervasive issue of scale in ecology
Levin [1992]

5. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
15 forms of biodiversity trends
McGill et al. [2015]

6. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Local species richness
Vellend et al. [2013]

7. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Local species richness
Murphy and Romanuk [2014]

8. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Local species richness
Dornelas et al. [2014]

9. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Local species richness
Supp and Ernest [2014]

10. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Local species richness
Newbold et al. [2015]

11. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Local species richness
Elahi et al. [2015]

12. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Regional species richness
Sax and Gaines [2003]

13. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Global species richness
Pimm et al. [2014]

14. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Temporal beta diversity
Dornelas et al. [2014]

15. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Spatial beta diversity
Devictor et al. [2007]

16. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Continental abundance and biomass
Inger et al. [2015]

17. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Global abundance
Doubleday [2016]

18. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Summarizing biodiversity trends
McGill et al. [2015]

19. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Vellend et al 2013 review
Anonymous reviewer Nature
I can appreciate counter-intuitive findings that are contrary to common assumptions.
However, because of the large policy implications of this paper and its interpretation, I
feel that this paper has to be held to a high standard of demonstrating results beyond
a reasonable doubt [...] Unfortunately, while the authors are careful to state that they
are discussing biodiversity changes at local scales, and to explain why this is relevant
to the scientific community, clearly media reporting on these results are going to skim
right over that and report that biological diversity is not declining if this paper were to
be published in Nature.

20. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Vellend et al 2013 review
Anonymous reviewer Nature
I can appreciate counter-intuitive findings that are contrary to common assumptions.
However, because of the large policy implications of this paper and its interpretation, I
feel that this paper has to be held to a high standard of demonstrating results beyond
a reasonable doubt [...] Unfortunately, while the authors are careful to state that they
are discussing biodiversity changes at local scales, and to explain why this is relevant
to the scientific community, clearly media reporting on these results are going to skim
right over that and report that biological diversity is not declining if this paper were to
be published in Nature.
Jeremy Fox
The reviewer can be read as saying that scientific papers should be
held to different standards in peer review based on guesses about
how the public, media, and policymakers might react
Have a look: http://tinyurl.com/j9va22q

21. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Published critics of Vellend et al 2013 and Dornelas
et al 2014
Gonzalez et al. [2016]

22. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Published critics of Vellend et al 2013 and Dornelas
et al 2014
Gonzalez et al. [2016]
Also: Wright et al. [2014]

23. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
Where do we go from here?
There is no perfect dataset around for estimating changes in
biodiversity across scales and across biodiversity measures
Need to be explicit when mentioning biodiversity loss/decline
More focus is needed on β diversity trends
Care when discussing with public: overall (average) flat trends
in biodiversity do not mean that everything is ok everywhere
Discussion among the scientific community about the quality
of biodiversity

24. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
V. Devictor, R. Julliard, D. Couvet, A. Lee, and F. Jiguet.
Functional homogenization effect of urbanization on bird
communities. Conservation Biology, 21(3):741–751, 2007.
M. Dornelas, N. J. Gotelli, B. McGill, H. Shimadzu, F. Moyes,
C. Sievers, and A. E. Magurran. Assemblage time series reveal
biodiversity change but not systematic loss. Science, 344(6181):
296–299, 2014.
Z. A. Doubleday. Global proliferation of cephalopods. Current
Biology, 26(10):R406–R407, 2016.
R. Elahi, M. I. OConnor, J. E. Byrnes, J. Dunic, B. K. Eriksson,
M. J. Hensel, and P. J. Kearns. Recent trends in local-scale
marine biodiversity reflect community structure and human
impacts. Current Biology, 25(14):1938 – 1943, 2015.

25. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
A. Gonzalez, B. J. Cardinale, G. R. Allington, J. Byrnes,
K. Arthur Endsley, D. G. Brown, D. U. Hooper, F. Isbell, M. I.
O’Connor, and M. Loreau. Estimating local biodiversity change:
a critique of papers claiming no net loss of local diversity.
Ecology, 2016.
R. Inger, R. Gregory, J. P. Duffy, I. Stott, P. Voek, and K. J.
Gaston. Common european birds are declining rapidly while less
abundant species’ numbers are rising. Ecology Letters, 18(1):
28–36, 2015.
S. A. Levin. The problem of pattern and scale in ecology: the
robert h. macarthur award lecture. Ecology, 73(6):1943–1967,
1992.
B. J. McGill, M. Dornelas, N. J. Gotelli, and A. E. Magurran.
Fifteen forms of biodiversity trend in the anthropocene. Trends
in ecology & evolution, 30(2):104–113, 2015.

26. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
G. E. P. Murphy and T. N. Romanuk. A meta-analysis of declines
in local species richness from human disturbances. Ecology and
Evolution, 4(1):91–103, 2014.
T. Newbold, L. N. Hudson, S. L. Hill, S. Contu, I. Lysenko, R. A.
Senior, L. B¨orger, D. J. Bennett, A. Choimes, B. Collen, et al.
Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity.
Nature, 520(7545):45–50, 2015.
S. L. Pimm, C. N. Jenkins, R. Abell, T. M. Brooks, J. L.
Gittleman, L. N. Joppa, P. H. Raven, C. M. Roberts, and J. O.
Sexton. The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction,
distribution, and protection. Science, 344(6187), 2014.
D. F. Sax and S. D. Gaines. Species diversity: from global
decreases to local increases. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 18
(11):561–566, 2003.
S. R. Supp and S. K. M. Ernest. Species-level and community-level
responses to disturbance: a cross-community analysis. Ecology,
95(7):1717–1723, 2014.

27. The common wisdom Vagueness in ecology The empirical evidence The debate Where do we go? References
M. Vellend, L. Baeten, I. H. Myers-Smith, S. C. Elmendorf,
R. Beaus´ejour, C. D. Brown, P. De Frenne, K. Verheyen, and
S. Wipf. Global meta-analysis reveals no net change in
local-scale plant biodiversity over time. Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences, 110(48):19456–19459, 2013.
A. Wright, M. Bernhardt-R¨omermann, D. Craven, A. Ebeling,
J. Engel, J. Hines, and N. Eisenhauer. Local-scale changes in
plant diversity: reassessments and implications for
biodiversity–ecosystem function experiments. Proceedings of
Peerage of Science, 1:e6, 2014.