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1226A: iQue on IBM BlueMix
can increase your TM1
forecast accuracy
Michael Cowie
Dallas Crawford
QueBIT Consulting, LLC
Mike Cowie, Director of Strategic
Solutions, QueBIT
@Michael_D_Cowie
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cowiemichael
mcowie@quebit.com
Dallas Crawford, Senior Sales Executive,
QueBIT
https://www.linkedin.com/in/dallas-crawford-
mba-446a759
dcrawford@quebit.com
Presenting Today
2 5/18/2017
Agenda
3 5/18/2017
• About QueBIT
• What is iQue?
• What are predictive demand planning & Euclid?
• How to get started with predictive solutions & iQue
• Q & A
What you will learn today
4 5/18/2017
1. Learn about IBM BlueMix, web services and why we created the iQue
Connector
2. Learn how your forecasts can benefit from data science & predictive
demand planning
3. Learn about QueBIT’s Euclid engine and predictive solutions
4. Some demonstrations to show you what’s possible
5. QueBIT’s vision for the future:
• Integrating web services and other solutions with TM1
• Leveraging advanced analytics in TM1
Reach out to QueBIT at
Vision
5 5/18/2017
• On Twitter
• #askquebit or @QueBIT_TM1
• Expo hall:
• Booth #11
• More about iQue/sign up for beta: http://www.quebit.com/iQue
• Visit us on our IBM Vision 2017 page for more:
• http://quebit.com/who-we-are/resources/vision-2017/
About QueBIT
6 5/18/2017
• Focused on all things Analytics
• Analytics Consulting Services
• Project Implementations
• Staff Augmentation/Managed Services
• Software Reseller and Development Company
• 16 years in business with managers on the team who have been working in
analytics for 20+ years
• Operating Nationally in the United States of America
• 900+ successful implementations in finance, sales, marketing and operations (50+
new analytics implementations over the past 12 months)
• 400+ analytics customers; all industries
• 90 employees
• Development of Analytics Solutions such as Predictive Insurance Claims
Subrogation, Predictive Demand Planning and Predictive Assortment
Planning
• Delivering Analytics On-Premise and in The Cloud
7 5/18/2017
About QueBIT
Trusted Experts in
Analytics
8 5/18/2017
• 50+ Financial Analytics Projects a year
• Delivered with IBM Planning Analytics/TM1 on Premise or in the Cloud
• Financial Consolidations and Reporting
• Revenue and Expense Planning
• Operations and Workforce Planning
• Capital Planning
• Profitability Analytics
• Etc.
Financial & Operational
Performance Management
9 5/18/2017
• CloudWORQ: Pre-built TM1 solutions designed to integrate
with TM1 Cloud, based on proven QueBIT TM1 models, such
as expense, workforce & sales planning
• ControlWORQ: Excel & Web-based Financial Consolidations
with TM1 (journals, eliminations, etc)
• ReportWORQ: Report bursting and distribution solution for
TM1
• WebWORQ: Web application development for TM1, including
dashboard and visualization capabilities
10 5/18/2017
QueBIT FrameWORQ
Solutions
• Dozens of Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics project a year
• Dramatic ROI
• Solution Focus
• Galileo – Predictive Demand Planning
• Orion – Predictive Assortment Planning
• Athens – Predictive Claims Subrogation
• Predictive Price Optimization
• IOT Analytics
• Predictive Maintenance
• Predictive Customer Intelligence
• Scheduling Optimization
• Data Scientist for Rent!
Advanced Analytics
11 5/18/2017
• Cognos Analytics Reporting & Analysis
• Dashboarding – KPIs/Scorecards
• Production Reporting
• Sales
• Supply Chain
• Operations
• 75% of clients now claim they are moving to Mobile BI
• Data Warehousing and Big Data
• QueBIT can help with Data Strategy
BI and Data Management
12 5/18/2017
What is iQue
13 5/18/2017
TM1
Flat Files
ODBC & ODBO
TM1
Views/Subsets
Package
Connector
Execute
Command
Java
Extensions
What can we see & do from
a TM1 Server?
14 5/18/2017
Cloud & On Prem
On Prem Only
15 5/18/2017
But… what about?
• Non-ODBC data sources
• External applications & services: Data
• Weather, Markets, Twitter, etc.
• External applications & services
• Watson, Messaging, Monitoring
• Anything found in IBM BlueMix & similar platforms
• https://console.ng.bluemix.net/catalog/?category=services
What is iQue
16 5/18/2017
TM1RESTAPI
3rdPartySDKs,APIs,etc.
• Wizards to help define connections & mappings between TM1 instances and
3rd party services
• Connectors that can be used to execute those saved connection and
mapping definitions
• Current support for:
• QueBIT’s time series forecasting engine (Euclid)
• SMS messaging
• Future support: Customer requests/demand (e.g., Watson & other BlueMix
services)
What is iQue
17 5/18/2017
Demo
Texting while TM1’ing
18 5/18/2017
What is Predictive
Demand Planning?
19 5/18/2017
• Collaboration of data science (predictive
modeling/forecasting), sales, inventory management and
finance
• Data science driven forecasts that maximize accuracy by leveraging
causal data
• Forecast Value Add metrics/alerts that identify potential issues
quickly/efficiently
• Collaborative environment where sales, inventory management and
finance can work together to optimize inventory levels, model P&L
impacts and perform “what if” scenario testing
What is Predictive Demand
Planning?
20 5/18/2017
• Traditional Demand Planning Solutions:
• Are based on naïve seasonality and trend forecasting techniques and
do not include causal data such as weather, pricing, promotions,
macro-economics effects
• Struggle with new items
• Struggle with low velocity items
• Present difficulties with changing drivers and structures within
database
• Are not interactive and do not allow for “what if” scenario testing
• Are not truly collaborative: sales, IM and finance
Why would you need predictive
demand planning?
21 5/18/2017
QueBIT’s Unique Approach
to Forecasting
22 5/18/2017
QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting
23 5/18/2017
Product sales by month – how do
predictive and traditional tools
compare?
QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting
24 5/18/2017
Seasonality can be extracted by
removing the overall trend
The trend is decidedly non-linear and
drops off dramatically in 2014
QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting
25 5/18/2017
QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting
26 5/18/2017
But other forecasting tools assume
linearity and would create a trend
below (and then layer on seasonality)
The sales trend is highly correlated
with overall marketing spend –
therefore, we want to predict the past
(and future) demand trend using
marketing spend (and other
predictors)
QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting
27 5/18/2017
QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting
28 5/18/2017
Our approach generates a more
realistic forecast by incorporating
causal data (such as marketing
spend)
What is Euclid?
29 5/18/2017
• Euclid is QueBIT’s native Java predictive modeling engine
• Extremely high performance (multi-threaded)
• Contains proven, unique QueBIT intellectual property (based on deep
knowledge of data science)
• REST API that can be leveraged by TM1 using iQue
What is Euclid?
30 5/18/2017
Algorithms supported:
• Forecasting:
• Seasonal Forecasting Model with Causal Predictors
• ARIMA
• Clustering/Segmentation:
• KMeans (with automatic # of clusters optimization)
• KMedians
• Predictive Modeling:
• Multiple Linear Regression
• RandomForest
• C5 Decision Trees
• Logistic Regression
• Deep Neural Networks
• Text Mining:
• Latent Dirichlet Analysis (aka Topic Modeling)
What is Euclid?
31 5/18/2017
Availability:
• On-premise
• Hosted pay-as-you-go service
What is Euclid?
32 5/18/2017
Demo
Call the Euclid Predictive Demand
Planning Engine from TM1
33 5/18/2017
• A set of dashboard pages created in Planning Analytics Workspace (PAW)
• How we define mappings from existing TM1 models to Euclid
• Execution of a pre-defined iQue package that calls QueBIT’s Euclid
predictive demand planning engine:
• Approximately 100,000 data points consisting of historical weekly data (going
back 2 year) and predictors (unit price, ad & digital spend) extracted from
TM1 and sent to Euclid
• Euclid returned predictive forecast for the next 52 weeks along with a lower
and upper confidence interval for the same period, which was then loaded
into TM1
• Increased digital ad spend by 400%, re-ran Euclid prediction to see impact
What did you just see?
34 5/18/2017
Questions?
35 5/18/2017
• On Twitter
• #askquebit or @QueBIT_TM1
• Expo hall:
• Booth #11
• More about iQue/sign up for beta: http://www.quebit.com/iQue
• Visit us on our IBM Vision 2017 page for more:
• http://quebit.com/who-we-are/resources/vision-2017/
Thank You!
Other Sessions with QueBIT
• 1148 (Wed @ 11:15am): Leveraging Planning Analytics & CDM to streamline Financial Reporting and improve
Budgeting at Stein Mart
• 1095 (Wed @ 3:00pm): Prescriptive Analytics & CPLEX Decision Optimization and TM1 Dashboard: Combined
Planning Power at JLG Industries
• 1091 (Thurs @ 9:15am): Auditable Financial System for Government Contracting at Accenture Federal Serv
• 1220 (Thurs @ 10:45am): Planning Analytics: Working Alongside Hyperion for Operational Analytics at NiSource ices
• 1093 (Thurs @ 10:45am): Leveraging TM1 for Merchandise Planning at Tractor Supply Company
Be sure to stop by and visit us at Booth #11 and…
Visit us on our IBM Vision 2017 page for more:
http://quebit.com/who-we-are/resources/vision-2017/

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iQue on IBM BlueMix Can Increase Your TM1 Forecast Accuracy - IBM Vision Conference 2017 Session Deck - QueBIT Consulting

  • 1. 1226A: iQue on IBM BlueMix can increase your TM1 forecast accuracy Michael Cowie Dallas Crawford QueBIT Consulting, LLC
  • 2. Mike Cowie, Director of Strategic Solutions, QueBIT @Michael_D_Cowie https://www.linkedin.com/in/cowiemichael mcowie@quebit.com Dallas Crawford, Senior Sales Executive, QueBIT https://www.linkedin.com/in/dallas-crawford- mba-446a759 dcrawford@quebit.com Presenting Today 2 5/18/2017
  • 3. Agenda 3 5/18/2017 • About QueBIT • What is iQue? • What are predictive demand planning & Euclid? • How to get started with predictive solutions & iQue • Q & A
  • 4. What you will learn today 4 5/18/2017 1. Learn about IBM BlueMix, web services and why we created the iQue Connector 2. Learn how your forecasts can benefit from data science & predictive demand planning 3. Learn about QueBIT’s Euclid engine and predictive solutions 4. Some demonstrations to show you what’s possible 5. QueBIT’s vision for the future: • Integrating web services and other solutions with TM1 • Leveraging advanced analytics in TM1
  • 5. Reach out to QueBIT at Vision 5 5/18/2017 • On Twitter • #askquebit or @QueBIT_TM1 • Expo hall: • Booth #11 • More about iQue/sign up for beta: http://www.quebit.com/iQue • Visit us on our IBM Vision 2017 page for more: • http://quebit.com/who-we-are/resources/vision-2017/
  • 7. • Focused on all things Analytics • Analytics Consulting Services • Project Implementations • Staff Augmentation/Managed Services • Software Reseller and Development Company • 16 years in business with managers on the team who have been working in analytics for 20+ years • Operating Nationally in the United States of America • 900+ successful implementations in finance, sales, marketing and operations (50+ new analytics implementations over the past 12 months) • 400+ analytics customers; all industries • 90 employees • Development of Analytics Solutions such as Predictive Insurance Claims Subrogation, Predictive Demand Planning and Predictive Assortment Planning • Delivering Analytics On-Premise and in The Cloud 7 5/18/2017 About QueBIT
  • 9. • 50+ Financial Analytics Projects a year • Delivered with IBM Planning Analytics/TM1 on Premise or in the Cloud • Financial Consolidations and Reporting • Revenue and Expense Planning • Operations and Workforce Planning • Capital Planning • Profitability Analytics • Etc. Financial & Operational Performance Management 9 5/18/2017
  • 10. • CloudWORQ: Pre-built TM1 solutions designed to integrate with TM1 Cloud, based on proven QueBIT TM1 models, such as expense, workforce & sales planning • ControlWORQ: Excel & Web-based Financial Consolidations with TM1 (journals, eliminations, etc) • ReportWORQ: Report bursting and distribution solution for TM1 • WebWORQ: Web application development for TM1, including dashboard and visualization capabilities 10 5/18/2017 QueBIT FrameWORQ Solutions
  • 11. • Dozens of Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics project a year • Dramatic ROI • Solution Focus • Galileo – Predictive Demand Planning • Orion – Predictive Assortment Planning • Athens – Predictive Claims Subrogation • Predictive Price Optimization • IOT Analytics • Predictive Maintenance • Predictive Customer Intelligence • Scheduling Optimization • Data Scientist for Rent! Advanced Analytics 11 5/18/2017
  • 12. • Cognos Analytics Reporting & Analysis • Dashboarding – KPIs/Scorecards • Production Reporting • Sales • Supply Chain • Operations • 75% of clients now claim they are moving to Mobile BI • Data Warehousing and Big Data • QueBIT can help with Data Strategy BI and Data Management 12 5/18/2017
  • 13. What is iQue 13 5/18/2017
  • 14. TM1 Flat Files ODBC & ODBO TM1 Views/Subsets Package Connector Execute Command Java Extensions What can we see & do from a TM1 Server? 14 5/18/2017 Cloud & On Prem On Prem Only
  • 15. 15 5/18/2017 But… what about? • Non-ODBC data sources • External applications & services: Data • Weather, Markets, Twitter, etc. • External applications & services • Watson, Messaging, Monitoring • Anything found in IBM BlueMix & similar platforms • https://console.ng.bluemix.net/catalog/?category=services
  • 16. What is iQue 16 5/18/2017 TM1RESTAPI 3rdPartySDKs,APIs,etc.
  • 17. • Wizards to help define connections & mappings between TM1 instances and 3rd party services • Connectors that can be used to execute those saved connection and mapping definitions • Current support for: • QueBIT’s time series forecasting engine (Euclid) • SMS messaging • Future support: Customer requests/demand (e.g., Watson & other BlueMix services) What is iQue 17 5/18/2017
  • 19. What is Predictive Demand Planning? 19 5/18/2017
  • 20. • Collaboration of data science (predictive modeling/forecasting), sales, inventory management and finance • Data science driven forecasts that maximize accuracy by leveraging causal data • Forecast Value Add metrics/alerts that identify potential issues quickly/efficiently • Collaborative environment where sales, inventory management and finance can work together to optimize inventory levels, model P&L impacts and perform “what if” scenario testing What is Predictive Demand Planning? 20 5/18/2017
  • 21. • Traditional Demand Planning Solutions: • Are based on naïve seasonality and trend forecasting techniques and do not include causal data such as weather, pricing, promotions, macro-economics effects • Struggle with new items • Struggle with low velocity items • Present difficulties with changing drivers and structures within database • Are not interactive and do not allow for “what if” scenario testing • Are not truly collaborative: sales, IM and finance Why would you need predictive demand planning? 21 5/18/2017
  • 22. QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting 22 5/18/2017
  • 23. QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting 23 5/18/2017 Product sales by month – how do predictive and traditional tools compare?
  • 24. QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting 24 5/18/2017 Seasonality can be extracted by removing the overall trend
  • 25. The trend is decidedly non-linear and drops off dramatically in 2014 QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting 25 5/18/2017
  • 26. QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting 26 5/18/2017 But other forecasting tools assume linearity and would create a trend below (and then layer on seasonality)
  • 27. The sales trend is highly correlated with overall marketing spend – therefore, we want to predict the past (and future) demand trend using marketing spend (and other predictors) QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting 27 5/18/2017
  • 28. QueBIT’s Unique Approach to Forecasting 28 5/18/2017 Our approach generates a more realistic forecast by incorporating causal data (such as marketing spend)
  • 29. What is Euclid? 29 5/18/2017
  • 30. • Euclid is QueBIT’s native Java predictive modeling engine • Extremely high performance (multi-threaded) • Contains proven, unique QueBIT intellectual property (based on deep knowledge of data science) • REST API that can be leveraged by TM1 using iQue What is Euclid? 30 5/18/2017
  • 31. Algorithms supported: • Forecasting: • Seasonal Forecasting Model with Causal Predictors • ARIMA • Clustering/Segmentation: • KMeans (with automatic # of clusters optimization) • KMedians • Predictive Modeling: • Multiple Linear Regression • RandomForest • C5 Decision Trees • Logistic Regression • Deep Neural Networks • Text Mining: • Latent Dirichlet Analysis (aka Topic Modeling) What is Euclid? 31 5/18/2017
  • 32. Availability: • On-premise • Hosted pay-as-you-go service What is Euclid? 32 5/18/2017
  • 33. Demo Call the Euclid Predictive Demand Planning Engine from TM1 33 5/18/2017
  • 34. • A set of dashboard pages created in Planning Analytics Workspace (PAW) • How we define mappings from existing TM1 models to Euclid • Execution of a pre-defined iQue package that calls QueBIT’s Euclid predictive demand planning engine: • Approximately 100,000 data points consisting of historical weekly data (going back 2 year) and predictors (unit price, ad & digital spend) extracted from TM1 and sent to Euclid • Euclid returned predictive forecast for the next 52 weeks along with a lower and upper confidence interval for the same period, which was then loaded into TM1 • Increased digital ad spend by 400%, re-ran Euclid prediction to see impact What did you just see? 34 5/18/2017
  • 35. Questions? 35 5/18/2017 • On Twitter • #askquebit or @QueBIT_TM1 • Expo hall: • Booth #11 • More about iQue/sign up for beta: http://www.quebit.com/iQue • Visit us on our IBM Vision 2017 page for more: • http://quebit.com/who-we-are/resources/vision-2017/
  • 36. Thank You! Other Sessions with QueBIT • 1148 (Wed @ 11:15am): Leveraging Planning Analytics & CDM to streamline Financial Reporting and improve Budgeting at Stein Mart • 1095 (Wed @ 3:00pm): Prescriptive Analytics & CPLEX Decision Optimization and TM1 Dashboard: Combined Planning Power at JLG Industries • 1091 (Thurs @ 9:15am): Auditable Financial System for Government Contracting at Accenture Federal Serv • 1220 (Thurs @ 10:45am): Planning Analytics: Working Alongside Hyperion for Operational Analytics at NiSource ices • 1093 (Thurs @ 10:45am): Leveraging TM1 for Merchandise Planning at Tractor Supply Company Be sure to stop by and visit us at Booth #11 and… Visit us on our IBM Vision 2017 page for more: http://quebit.com/who-we-are/resources/vision-2017/