Mark Diffley analyses the state of the Liberal Democrats in Scotland under the leadership of Willie Rennie

1. Scottish Liberal Democrat party conference:
Ipsos MORI briefing pack
Autumn 2011
Contacts:
Mark.Diffley@ipsos.com
0131 240 3269

2. Support for the Lib Dems has been declining at
Holyrood and Westminster for some time
Holyrood Westminster
General Election Scottish Parliament Election General Election Scottish Parliament Election
Result Result Result Result
30
20
10
7%
6%
0
N 9
N 0
11
Se 5
M 6
M 0
M 1
5
Ju 6
10
11
05
Fe 9
Fe 0
05
7
Au 0
Au 1
Au 8
r-1
r-1
0
1
0
0
-0
-0
-0
-1
-1
-0
-1
0
g-
g-
g-
n-
n-
b-
b-
-
p-
20
ov
ov
ar
ar
ay
ay
ay
ay
Ap
Ap
Ju
M
M
M
Base: All certain to vote – March 2005 (436); June 2005 (500); Sep 2005 (544); March 2006 (491); June 2006 (444); August 2009 (533); November
2009 (546); February 2010 (581); August 2010 (677); November 2010 (628); February 2011 (627); April 2011 (667); August 2011 (596).
Pre Aug 2009 – data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults face-to-face; Post Aug 2009 - Data collected
among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone

3. Support for the Lib Dems has fallen as support for the
SNP has increased
Labour SNP Conservatives Liberal Democrats
Scottish Parliament Election Scottish Parliament Election
Result Result
50 49%
40
30 28%
20
13%
10
7%
0
Mar- Jun- Sep- Mar- Jun- May- 2008 Aug- Nov- Feb- Aug- Nov- Feb- Apr- May- Aug-
05 05 05 06 06 07 09 09 10 10 10 11 11 11 11
Base: All certain to vote – March 2005 (436); June 2005 (500); Sep 2005 (544); March 2006 (491); June 2006 (444); August 2009 (533); November
2009 (546); February 2010 (581); August 2010 (677); November 2010 (628); February 2011 (627); April 2011 (667); August 2011 (596).
Pre Aug 2009 – data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults face-to-face; Post Aug 2009 - Data collected
among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone

4. Willie Rennie must work to improve his profile among
Scots
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as
Scottish Liberal Democrats Party?
% Satisfied % Don’t know % Dissatisfied
Tavish Scott Willie Rennie
(April 2011) (August 2011)
17%
34% 30% 32%
36% 51%
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 14-17 April 2011; 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

5. A narrow majority of Scots oppose a single
Scottish police force – as do the Lib Dems
Q. As you may know, the Scottish Government is considering a proposal to
combine Scotland’s eight police forces into a single police force covering the
whole country. Do you support or oppose this proposal?
Don’t know
12% Support
34%
Oppose
54%
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults, 18+, 25th-29th August 2011
Source: Ipsos MORI

6. The majority of Scots support increased powers for
the Scottish Parliament…
Q. The referendum is likely to contain two separate questions. The first question will ask
whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish
Parliament to include more laws and duties and all tax raising powers, while Scotland
remains part of the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or
disagree with the proposal:
Undecided/ Don’t
know
8%
Agree
26%
Disagree
66%
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults, 18+, 25th-29th August 2011
Source: Ipsos MORI

7. … but not full independence – as do the Lib Dems
Q. The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to
extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an
independent country, separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would
you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal:
Undecided/ Don’t
know
7%
Agree
35%
Disagree
58%
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults, 18+, 25th-29th August 2011
Source: Ipsos MORI

8. Thank you
For further information contact
mark.diffley@ipsos.com on 0131 240 3269
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com 0131 240 3264
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