Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

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Purnamita Dasgupta, WGII CLA

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  • © Asahi Shimbun / Getty Images
  • Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, emissions growth is expected to persist driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Baseline scenarios, those without additional mitigation, result in global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 from 3.7 to 4.8°C compared to pre-industrial levels.
    For such large magnitudes of warming, the Working Group II contribution to AR5 highlights the increase in the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and challenging impacts. Risks include potential adverse impacts on agricultural production worldwide, potentially extensive ecosystem impacts, and increasing species extinction risk (high confidence), as well as possible crossing of thresholds that lead to disproportionately large earth system responses (low confidence). The precise levels of climate change sufficient to trigger tipping points (critical thresholds) remain uncertain, but the likelihood of crossing tipping points in the earth system or interlinked human and natural systems decreases with reduced greenhouse gas emissions.
    The overall risks of climate change impacts can be reduced by limiting the rate and magnitude of climate change. Risks are reduced substantially under the assessed scenario in ambitious mitigation scenarios compared to business as usual projections.
  • © EC / ECHO 2012
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
  • Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

    1. 1. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability An Overview of AR5 WG II Contribution Purnamita Dasgupta CLA, Chapter 9
    2. 2. The Framing: Climate as part of multiple, interacting contexts (a) Risks and Opportunities (b) Interactions : Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development The Presentation: Two parts Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects (ch 1-20); Part B: Regional Aspects (21-30) The Literature Assessment: 308 authors, 70 countries, 50492 review comments
    3. 3. 7. Industry, Settlement and Society 8. Human Health 17. Assessment of Adaptation Practices, Options, Constraints and Capacity 18. Inter-relationships Between Adaptation and Mitigation 8. Urban Areas 9. Rural Areas 10. Key Economic Sectors 11. Human Heath 12. Human Security 13. Livelihoods and Poverty 14. Adaptation Needs and Options 15. Adaptation Planning and Implementation 16. Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits 17. Economics of Adaptation AR4 AR5 AR4 AR5
    4. 4. A CHANGING WORLD WIDESPREAD OBSERVED IMPACTS
    5. 5. AROUND THE WORLD VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE
    6. 6. Risk Level with Current Adaptation Potential for Additional Adaptation to Reduce Risk Risk Level with High Adaptation Risk-Level Very Low Med Very High 4°C 2°C Present Long Term (2080-2100) Near Term (2030-2040)
    7. 7. THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING MAGNITUDES OF WARMING INCREASE SEVERE AND PERVASIVE IMPACTS
    8. 8. WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS INCREASE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
    9. 9. Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8°C over the 21st century. 9 Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4
    10. 10. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Potential Impacts of Climate Change F ood and water shortages Increased poverty Increased morbidity and mortality Coastal flooding AR5 WGII SPM
    11. 11. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Key risks: Climate change,SouthEast Asia
    12. 12. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Region: Impacted by Flooding and Droughts Vulnerabilities * Some concerns….with adaptation potential bars relatively small in most cases at 4 deg C • Wildfires, Health impacts from smoke exposure. • Increase in vector borne diseases such as dengue • Decline in rice yields, fisheries * Please Refer to Table in the Asia Flyer
    13. 13. CLIMATE CHANGE REDUCING AND MANAGING RISKS
    14. 14. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Climate change in the The Lower Mekong Basin Observations & future projections include: • Intensified flood and drought events which have noticeably impacted agricultural output (90% rice production losses in Cambodia during 1996-2001) • Vietnam and Cambodia are most vulnerable to climate change impacts on fisheries AR5 WGII ch.24 All countries of the LMB have national adaptation plans; Transboundary adaptation planning : A multi- stakeholder Regional Adaptation Action Network has been proposed.

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