1. FUTURE POLICY
MODELLING (FUPOL)
WP2 – Policy Modelling
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2. Objectives
The main objective is to derive guidelines and a repository of generic
causal modeling platform suitable for the spiral policy modelling approach
consisting of:
• Cognitive Models:
• Causal Models specified in Coloured Petri Net Formalism
• Agent Behaviour
The scope of the models will be limited to the major domains in urban
policies including: Land use and urban planning, Environment, Education,
Demography, Finance, Economic Affairs, Family , Public Transport ,
Cultural Affairs, Social Affairs, Public Health and Hospitals.
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3. Objectives
A specific objective is to develop theoretical models for the policy areas of
the pilots to evaluate the applicability of the generic models in practice.
Some domains that have been identified are
 Land use and urban planning
 Sustainable development and environment
 Urban segregation and migration
 Education
 Demography
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4. Description of Work
In the social context, there is a lack of decision support tools that could
help to deal with the design of a trade-off policy through a collaborative
decision making approach in which citizen behaviour could be used to
understand not only the acceptability of a certain policy, but also the
dynamics of their shortages:
 Why hidden shortages can emerge?
 How the policy handicaps will affect the communities?
 When deficiencies of a policy will be evident?
The causal modelling approach to be developed in this WP will contribute
to understand the different relationships between citizens, community
leaders, and government agents roles and to analyze through the
simulation software to be developed in WP-4 the different consequences
(both positives and negatives) of the different policies.
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5. Description of Work
FCM: parameterize
individual interactions as
feedback loops
CPN: specification of emotion models based in
affective science, in view of their large-scale
causes and effects both for the individual
agent and the multi-agent.
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6. Tasks (1)
Task 2.1: Definition and Modelling of Requirements
This task seeks to develop a platform, method, and service for
integrating expert knowledge and information from different domains
to support policy decision making.
The Modelling requirements concerns how to develop accurate social
and behavioural models and integrate them with engineering models
(systems dynamic) to understand how consequences of government
actions are propagated, in order to foster, encourage and facilitate
collaboration between the citizens and government agents in order to
improve policies effectiveness.
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7. Tasks (2)
Task 2.2: Cognitive Modelling
FCMs are fuzzy-graph structures that provide an expressive and
flexible method of capturing and representing complex relationships in
an intuitive manner. FCMs have been successfully used to model
complex systems in a variety of scientific areas.
In this task FCM models of specific policy domain will be implemented
and evaluated with regard to other modelling approaches.
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8. Tasks (3)
Task 2.3: Causal Modelling
Policy decisions and the propagation of its consequences is considered
nowadays a complex problem. The use of CPN models will allow
determining acceptable trade-off solution considering: citizen,
community leaders and government agents.
Causal CPN models will be extended as agent-oriented Coloured Petri
Nets with some intelligent elements, such as Goal, Knowledge,
Environment, Make-decision and Sensor.
CPN causal models will be autonomous agents and goal-driven.
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9. Tasks (3)
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10. Tasks (4)
Task 2.4: Model Parameterization
Scenario planning will be considered as a framework of support for decision-
makings based on clarifying
cause-effect factors with respect to different boundary conditions and
different citizens-stakeholders involvement in the decision making activity
through social networks.
In this task, the weak and tight links generated from the FCM specifications
will be weighted in the CPN model to determine the sensitivity of the social
context to policy impacts in the quality factors perceived by the citizens and
the stakeholders.
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11. Tasks (5)
Task 2.5: Model Validation and Verification
State Space (SS) Analysis is a rigorous approach that can be supported by
causal models developed under Coloured Timed Petri Net formalism.
Pattern recognition techniques will be applied to understand the main cause
effect relationships that can be generated by the model and will be classified
as strong or weak links.
This qualitative information will be validated and verified for the different
policy domains by experts and considering also historical data.
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12. Role of Partners
UAB: Will lead the policy modeling research by analyzing the policy landscape together
with users in selected domains relevant to cities and municipalities and will develop
generic policy models. Those will be the basis to develop computer simulation models.
Interfusion: Will develop tasks including analysis of existing policy models, the
construction of scenarios and model building, by means of Cognitive maps (CMs) and
fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs).
PIN Scrl: Will contribute in the definition of the policy model to be exploited in the
framework of the demonstrator implemented with the Municipality of Prato;
RAU: Will be involved in the development of education-mobility-demographic models,
but also in other policy models for describing in formal terms the comportment of these
systems. The goal of these models will be to forecast how these linked systems will
evolve over time, providing insights into the effects of policy changes;
Zagreb City, Yorkshire, Prato, Pegeia and Yantai : Will provide input concerning
user requirements, political process and priorities.
Cellent and Qualysoft : will participate in the requirements collection phase to better
understand user requirements.
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13. THANK YOU
FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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