Computational Modelling of Public Policy:
Reflections on Practice
Nigel Gilbert1, Petra Ahrweiler2, Pete Barbrook-Johnson1, Kavin
Preethi Narasimhan1, Helen Wilkinson3
1Department of Sociology, University of Surrey Guildford, GU2 7XH United Kingdom
2Institute of Sociology, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Jakob-Welder-Weg 20, 55128 Mainz, Germany
3Risk
Solution
s, Dallam Court, Dallam Lane, Warrington, Cheshire, WA2 7LT, United Kingdom
Correspondence should be addressed to [email protected]
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 21(1) 14, 2018
Doi: 10.18564/jasss.3669 Url: http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/21/1/14.html
Received: 11-01-2018 Accepted: 11-01-2018 Published: 31-01-2018
Abstract: Computational models are increasingly being used to assist in developing, implementing and evalu-
ating public policy. This paper reports on the experience of the authors in designing and using computational
models of public policy (‘policy models’, for short). The paper considers the role of computational models in
policy making, and some of the challenges that need to be overcome if policy models are to make an e�ec-
tive contribution. It suggests that policy models can have an important place in the policy process because
they could allow policy makers to experiment in a virtual world, and have many advantages compared with
randomised control trials and policy pilots. The paper then summarises some general lessons that can be ex-
tracted from the authors’ experiencewith policymodelling. These general lessons include the observation that
o�en themain benefit of designing andusing amodel is that it provides anunderstanding of the policy domain,
rather than the numbers it generates; that care needs to be taken that models are designed at an appropriate
level of abstraction; that although appropriate data for calibration and validation may sometimes be in short
supply, modelling is o�en still valuable; that modelling collaboratively and involving a range of stakeholders
from the outset increases the likelihood that the model will be used and will be fit for purpose; that attention
needs to be paid to e�ective communication betweenmodellers and stakeholders; and thatmodelling for pub-
lic policy involves ethical issues that need careful consideration. The paper concludes that policy modelling
will continue to grow in importance as a component of public policy making processes, but if its potential is to
be fully realised, there will need to be amelding of the cultures of computationalmodelling and policymaking.
Keywords: Policy Modelling, Policy Evaluation, Policy Appraisal, Modelling Guidelines, Collaboration, Ethics
Introduction
1.1 Computationalmodels have been used to assist in developing, implementing and evaluating public policies for
at least three decades, but their potential remains to be fully exploited (Johnston & Desouza 2015; Anzola et al.
2017; Barbrook-Johnson et al. 2017). In this paper, using a selection of examples of ...
ComputationalModellingofPublicPolicy:
ReflectionsonPractice
Nigel Gilbert1, Petra Ahrweiler2, Pete Barbrook-Johnson1, Kavin
PreethiNarasimhan1,HelenWilkinson3
1Department of Sociology, University of Surrey Guildford, GU2 7XH United Kingdom
2InstituteofSociology,JohannesGutenbergUniversityMainz,Jakob-Welder-Weg20,55128Mainz,Germany
3Risk
Solution
s, Dallam Court, Dallam Lane, Warrington, Cheshire, WA2 7LT, United Kingdom
Correspondence should be addressed to [email protected]
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 21(1) 14, 2018
Doi: 10.18564/jasss.3669 Url: http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/21/1/14.html
Received: 11-01-2018 Accepted: 11-01-2018 Published: 31-01-2018
Abstract: Computationalmodelsare increasinglybeingusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevalu-
ating public policy. This paper reports on the experience of the authors in designing and using computational
models of public policy (‘policy models’, for short). The paper considers the role of computational models in
policy making, and some of the challenges that need to be overcome if policy models are to make an e�ec-
tive contribution. It suggests that policy models can have an important place in the policy process because
they could allow policy makers to experiment in a virtual world, and have many advantages compared with
randomised control trials and policy pilots. The paper then summarises some general lessons that can be ex-
tractedfromtheauthors’experiencewithpolicymodelling. Thesegeneral lessonsincludetheobservationthat
o�enthemainbenefitofdesigningandusingamodelisthatitprovidesanunderstandingofthepolicydomain,
rather than the numbers it generates; that care needs to be taken that models are designed at an appropriate
level of abstraction; that although appropriate data for calibration and validation may sometimes be in short
supply, modelling is o�en still valuable; that modelling collaboratively and involving a range of stakeholders
from the outset increases the likelihood that the model will be used and will be fit for purpose; that attention
needstobepaidtoe�ectivecommunicationbetweenmodellersandstakeholders;andthatmodellingforpub-
lic policy involves ethical issues that need careful consideration. The paper concludes that policy modelling
will continue to grow in importance as a component of public policy making processes, but if its potential is to
befullyrealised, therewillneedtobeameldingoftheculturesofcomputationalmodellingandpolicymaking.
Keywords: Policy Modelling, Policy Evaluation, Policy Appraisal, Modelling Guidelines, Collaboration, Ethics
Introduction
1.1 Computationalmodelshavebeenusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevaluatingpublicpoliciesfor
at least threedecades,but theirpotential remainstobefullyexploited(Johnston&Desouza2015;Anzolaetal.
2017;Barbrook-Johnsonetal.2017). Inthispaper,usingaselectionofexamplesofcomputationalmodelsused
in public policy processes, we (i) consider the roles of models in policy making, (ii) explore .
ComputationalModellingofPublicPolicy:
ReflectionsonPractice
Nigel Gilbert1, Petra Ahrweiler2, Pete Barbrook-Johnson1, Kavin
PreethiNarasimhan1,HelenWilkinson3
1Department of Sociology, University of Surrey Guildford, GU2 7XH United Kingdom
2InstituteofSociology,JohannesGutenbergUniversityMainz,Jakob-Welder-Weg20,55128Mainz,Germany
3Risk
Solution
s, Dallam Court, Dallam Lane, Warrington, Cheshire, WA2 7LT, United Kingdom
Correspondence should be addressed to [email protected]
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 21(1) 14, 2018
Doi: 10.18564/jasss.3669 Url: http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/21/1/14.html
Received: 11-01-2018 Accepted: 11-01-2018 Published: 31-01-2018
Abstract: Computationalmodelsare increasinglybeingusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevalu-
ating public policy. This paper reports on the experience of the authors in designing and using computational
models of public policy (‘policy models’, for short). The paper considers the role of computational models in
policy making, and some of the challenges that need to be overcome if policy models are to make an e�ec-
tive contribution. It suggests that policy models can have an important place in the policy process because
they could allow policy makers to experiment in a virtual world, and have many advantages compared with
randomised control trials and policy pilots. The paper then summarises some general lessons that can be ex-
tractedfromtheauthors’experiencewithpolicymodelling. Thesegeneral lessonsincludetheobservationthat
o�enthemainbenefitofdesigningandusingamodelisthatitprovidesanunderstandingofthepolicydomain,
rather than the numbers it generates; that care needs to be taken that models are designed at an appropriate
level of abstraction; that although appropriate data for calibration and validation may sometimes be in short
supply, modelling is o�en still valuable; that modelling collaboratively and involving a range of stakeholders
from the outset increases the likelihood that the model will be used and will be fit for purpose; that attention
needstobepaidtoe�ectivecommunicationbetweenmodellersandstakeholders;andthatmodellingforpub-
lic policy involves ethical issues that need careful consideration. The paper concludes that policy modelling
will continue to grow in importance as a component of public policy making processes, but if its potential is to
befullyrealised, therewillneedtobeameldingoftheculturesofcomputationalmodellingandpolicymaking.
Keywords: Policy Modelling, Policy Evaluation, Policy Appraisal, Modelling Guidelines, Collaboration, Ethics
Introduction
1.1 Computationalmodelshavebeenusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevaluatingpublicpoliciesfor
at least threedecades,but theirpotential remainstobefullyexploited(Johnston&Desouza2015;Anzolaetal.
2017;Barbrook-Johnsonetal.2017). Inthispaper,usingaselectionofexamplesofcomputationalmodelsused
in public policy processes, we (i) consider the roles of models in policy making, (ii) explore ...
A virtual environment for formulation of policy packagesAraz Taeihagh
The interdependence and complexity of socio-technical systems and availability of a wide variety of policy measures to address policy problems make the process of policy formulation difficult. In order to formulate sustainable and efficient transport policies, development of new tools and techniques is necessary. One of the approaches gaining ground is policy packaging, which shifts focus from implementation of individual policy measures to implementation of combinations of measures with the aim of increasing efficiency and effectiveness of policy interventions by increasing synergies and reducing potential contradictions among policy measures. In this paper, we describe the development of a virtual environment for the exploration and analysis of different configurations of policy measures in order to build policy packages. By developing systematic approaches it is possible to examine more alternatives at a greater depth, decrease the time required for the overall analysis, provide real-time assessment and feedback on the effect of changes in the configurations, and ultimately form more effective policies. The results from this research demonstrate the usefulness of computational approaches in addressing the complexity inherent in the formulation of policy packages. This new approach has been applied to the formulation of policies to advance sustainable transportation.
Two important challenges in policy design are better understanding of the design
space and consideration of the temporal factors. Moreover, in recent years it has been
demonstrated that understanding the complex interactions of policy measures can play an
important role in policy design and analysis. In this paper, the advances made in conceptualization
and application of networks to policy design in the past decade are highlighted.
Specifically, the use of a network-centric policy design approach in better
understanding the design space and temporal consequences of design choices are presented.
Network-centric policy design approach has been used in classification, visualization,
and analysis of the relations among policy measures as well as ranking of policy
measures using their internal properties and interactions, and conducting sensitivity
analysis using Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, through use of a decision support
system, network-centric approach facilitates ranking, visualization, and selection of policies
using different sets of criteria, and exploring the potential for compromise in policy
formulation. The advantage of the network-centric approach is providing the ability to go
beyond visualizations and analysis of policies and piecemeal use of network concepts as a
tool for different policy design tasks to moving to a more integrated bottom–up approach to
design. Furthermore, the computational advantages of the network-centric policy design in
considering temporal factors such as policy sequencing and addressing issues such as
layering, drift, policy failure, and delay are presented. Finally, some of the current challenges
of network-centric design are discussed, and some potential avenues of exploration
in policy design through use of computational methodologies, as well as possible integration
with approaches from other disciplines, are highlighted.
rsos.royalsocietypublishing.orgReviewCite this article .docxhealdkathaleen
rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org
Review
Cite this article: Calder M etal. 2018
Computational modelling for
decision-making: where, why, what, who and
how. R.Soc.opensci. 5: 172096.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.172096
Received: 6 December 2017
Accepted: 10 May 2018
Subject Category:
Computer science
Subject Areas:
computer modelling and
simulation/mathematical modelling
Keywords:
modelling, decision-making, data,
uncertainty, complexity, communication
Author for correspondence:
Muffy Calder
e-mail: [email protected]
Computational modelling
for decision-making: where,
why, what, who and how
Muffy Calder1, Claire Craig2, Dave Culley3, Richard de
Cani4, Christl A. Donnelly5, Rowan Douglas6, Bruce
Edmonds7, Jonathon Gascoigne6, Nigel Gilbert8,
Caroline Hargrove9, Derwen Hinds10, David C. Lane11,
Dervilla Mitchell4, Giles Pavey12, David Robertson13,
Bridget Rosewell14, Spencer Sherwin15, Mark
Walport16 and Alan Wilson17
1School of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
2The Royal Society, London, UK
3Improbable, London, UK
4Arup, London, UK
5MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease
Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
6Willis Towers Watson, London, UK
7Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
8Centre for Research in Social Simulation, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
9McLaren Applied Technologies, Woking, UK
10National Cyber Security Centre, UK
11Henley Business School, University of Reading, Reading, UK
12Consultant, UK
13School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
14Volterra Partners, London, UK
15Department of Aeronautics, Imperial College London, London, UK
16UK Research and Innovation, London, UK
17The Alan Turing Institute, London, UK
BE, 0000-0002-3903-2507
In order to deal with an increasingly complex world, we
need ever more sophisticated computational models that can
help us make decisions wisely and understand the potential
consequences of choices. But creating a model requires far
more than just raw data and technical skills: it requires a
2018 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted
use, provided the original author and source are credited.
http://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.1098/rsos.172096&domain=pdf&date_stamp=2018-06-20
mailto:[email protected]
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3903-2507
2
rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org
R.Soc.open
sci.5:172096
.................................................
close collaboration between model commissioners, developers, users and reviewers. Good modelling
requires its users and commissioners to understand more about the whole process, including the
different kinds of purpose a model can have and the different technical bases. This paper offers a
guide to the process of commissioning, developing and deploying mo ...
PAD3711 Chapter 3 due May 22Part 1- essay assignment APA format.docxhoney690131
PAD3711 Chapter 3 due May 22
Part 1- essay assignment APA format
After reading Chapters 3 in the textbook prepare a 200 word response to the conclusion of Chapter 3 which states “Failure to become engaged and knowledgeable about internal politics can undermine the efficacy of information managers. ‘There’ are cases where managers with good technical skills lost their jobs due to their failure to master organizational politics. Information managers need to negotiate, bargain, dicker, and haggle with other departments. They may need to form coalitions and engage in logrolling in order to achieve their goals. A good manager needs good political skills to be effective.”Place the essay questions along with your answers on 1 page word doc
Part 2-Research Assignment APA format
Research Assignment: Using the article you used in week one- recognizes and analyzes applications of information technology in the public sector as it applies to the core public safety disciplines (law enforcement, fire services, EMS). For this article prepare a summary paper as follows:
Page One Article Title: List the article publication information using APA style for reference list citations, “e.g. Smith, N (2005). Information technology in the public sector. Technology and Public Administration Journal, 12(3), 125-136.”
Page Two Evaluation (must be at least 100 words): Using the article you summarized for Week One, critique the article's thesis (or hypotheses), methodology, evidence, logic, and conclusions from your perspective on the problem. Be constructively critical, suggesting how the research could be better or more useful. Be sure to cite other scholarly articles, by way of comparison and contrast, in support of your critique
The article I used in week one is attached along with the research paper that was turned in
here is the citation
Henderson, J. C., & Schilling, D. A. (1985). Design and Implementation of Decision Support Systems in the Public Sector. MIS Quarterly, 9(2), 157–169. https://doi-org.db07.linccweb.org/10.2307/249116
Professor puts all assignments in Turnitin
Both assignments must meet this grading criteria:
· This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomeRESPONSIVENESS (Did the student respond adequately to the paper or writing assignment?)
· Responds to assigned or selected topic; Goes beyond what is required in some meaningful way (e.g., ideas contribute a new dimension to what we know about the topic, unearths something unanticipated); Is substantive and evidence-based; Demonstrates that the student has read, viewed, and considered the Learning Resources in the course and that the assignment answer/paper topic connects in a meaningful way to the course content; and Is submitted by the due date.
· This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomeCONTENT KNOWLEDGE (Does the content in the paper or writing assignment demonstrate an understanding of the important knowledge the paper/assignment is intended to demonstrate?)
· In-depth understandi.
ComputationalModellingofPublicPolicy:
ReflectionsonPractice
Nigel Gilbert1, Petra Ahrweiler2, Pete Barbrook-Johnson1, Kavin
PreethiNarasimhan1,HelenWilkinson3
1Department of Sociology, University of Surrey Guildford, GU2 7XH United Kingdom
2InstituteofSociology,JohannesGutenbergUniversityMainz,Jakob-Welder-Weg20,55128Mainz,Germany
3Risk
Solution
s, Dallam Court, Dallam Lane, Warrington, Cheshire, WA2 7LT, United Kingdom
Correspondence should be addressed to [email protected]
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 21(1) 14, 2018
Doi: 10.18564/jasss.3669 Url: http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/21/1/14.html
Received: 11-01-2018 Accepted: 11-01-2018 Published: 31-01-2018
Abstract: Computationalmodelsare increasinglybeingusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevalu-
ating public policy. This paper reports on the experience of the authors in designing and using computational
models of public policy (‘policy models’, for short). The paper considers the role of computational models in
policy making, and some of the challenges that need to be overcome if policy models are to make an e�ec-
tive contribution. It suggests that policy models can have an important place in the policy process because
they could allow policy makers to experiment in a virtual world, and have many advantages compared with
randomised control trials and policy pilots. The paper then summarises some general lessons that can be ex-
tractedfromtheauthors’experiencewithpolicymodelling. Thesegeneral lessonsincludetheobservationthat
o�enthemainbenefitofdesigningandusingamodelisthatitprovidesanunderstandingofthepolicydomain,
rather than the numbers it generates; that care needs to be taken that models are designed at an appropriate
level of abstraction; that although appropriate data for calibration and validation may sometimes be in short
supply, modelling is o�en still valuable; that modelling collaboratively and involving a range of stakeholders
from the outset increases the likelihood that the model will be used and will be fit for purpose; that attention
needstobepaidtoe�ectivecommunicationbetweenmodellersandstakeholders;andthatmodellingforpub-
lic policy involves ethical issues that need careful consideration. The paper concludes that policy modelling
will continue to grow in importance as a component of public policy making processes, but if its potential is to
befullyrealised, therewillneedtobeameldingoftheculturesofcomputationalmodellingandpolicymaking.
Keywords: Policy Modelling, Policy Evaluation, Policy Appraisal, Modelling Guidelines, Collaboration, Ethics
Introduction
1.1 Computationalmodelshavebeenusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevaluatingpublicpoliciesfor
at least threedecades,but theirpotential remainstobefullyexploited(Johnston&Desouza2015;Anzolaetal.
2017;Barbrook-Johnsonetal.2017). Inthispaper,usingaselectionofexamplesofcomputationalmodelsused
in public policy processes, we (i) consider the roles of models in policy making, (ii) explore .
ComputationalModellingofPublicPolicy:
ReflectionsonPractice
Nigel Gilbert1, Petra Ahrweiler2, Pete Barbrook-Johnson1, Kavin
PreethiNarasimhan1,HelenWilkinson3
1Department of Sociology, University of Surrey Guildford, GU2 7XH United Kingdom
2InstituteofSociology,JohannesGutenbergUniversityMainz,Jakob-Welder-Weg20,55128Mainz,Germany
3Risk
Solution
s, Dallam Court, Dallam Lane, Warrington, Cheshire, WA2 7LT, United Kingdom
Correspondence should be addressed to [email protected]
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 21(1) 14, 2018
Doi: 10.18564/jasss.3669 Url: http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/21/1/14.html
Received: 11-01-2018 Accepted: 11-01-2018 Published: 31-01-2018
Abstract: Computationalmodelsare increasinglybeingusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevalu-
ating public policy. This paper reports on the experience of the authors in designing and using computational
models of public policy (‘policy models’, for short). The paper considers the role of computational models in
policy making, and some of the challenges that need to be overcome if policy models are to make an e�ec-
tive contribution. It suggests that policy models can have an important place in the policy process because
they could allow policy makers to experiment in a virtual world, and have many advantages compared with
randomised control trials and policy pilots. The paper then summarises some general lessons that can be ex-
tractedfromtheauthors’experiencewithpolicymodelling. Thesegeneral lessonsincludetheobservationthat
o�enthemainbenefitofdesigningandusingamodelisthatitprovidesanunderstandingofthepolicydomain,
rather than the numbers it generates; that care needs to be taken that models are designed at an appropriate
level of abstraction; that although appropriate data for calibration and validation may sometimes be in short
supply, modelling is o�en still valuable; that modelling collaboratively and involving a range of stakeholders
from the outset increases the likelihood that the model will be used and will be fit for purpose; that attention
needstobepaidtoe�ectivecommunicationbetweenmodellersandstakeholders;andthatmodellingforpub-
lic policy involves ethical issues that need careful consideration. The paper concludes that policy modelling
will continue to grow in importance as a component of public policy making processes, but if its potential is to
befullyrealised, therewillneedtobeameldingoftheculturesofcomputationalmodellingandpolicymaking.
Keywords: Policy Modelling, Policy Evaluation, Policy Appraisal, Modelling Guidelines, Collaboration, Ethics
Introduction
1.1 Computationalmodelshavebeenusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevaluatingpublicpoliciesfor
at least threedecades,but theirpotential remainstobefullyexploited(Johnston&Desouza2015;Anzolaetal.
2017;Barbrook-Johnsonetal.2017). Inthispaper,usingaselectionofexamplesofcomputationalmodelsused
in public policy processes, we (i) consider the roles of models in policy making, (ii) explore ...
A virtual environment for formulation of policy packagesAraz Taeihagh
The interdependence and complexity of socio-technical systems and availability of a wide variety of policy measures to address policy problems make the process of policy formulation difficult. In order to formulate sustainable and efficient transport policies, development of new tools and techniques is necessary. One of the approaches gaining ground is policy packaging, which shifts focus from implementation of individual policy measures to implementation of combinations of measures with the aim of increasing efficiency and effectiveness of policy interventions by increasing synergies and reducing potential contradictions among policy measures. In this paper, we describe the development of a virtual environment for the exploration and analysis of different configurations of policy measures in order to build policy packages. By developing systematic approaches it is possible to examine more alternatives at a greater depth, decrease the time required for the overall analysis, provide real-time assessment and feedback on the effect of changes in the configurations, and ultimately form more effective policies. The results from this research demonstrate the usefulness of computational approaches in addressing the complexity inherent in the formulation of policy packages. This new approach has been applied to the formulation of policies to advance sustainable transportation.
Two important challenges in policy design are better understanding of the design
space and consideration of the temporal factors. Moreover, in recent years it has been
demonstrated that understanding the complex interactions of policy measures can play an
important role in policy design and analysis. In this paper, the advances made in conceptualization
and application of networks to policy design in the past decade are highlighted.
Specifically, the use of a network-centric policy design approach in better
understanding the design space and temporal consequences of design choices are presented.
Network-centric policy design approach has been used in classification, visualization,
and analysis of the relations among policy measures as well as ranking of policy
measures using their internal properties and interactions, and conducting sensitivity
analysis using Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, through use of a decision support
system, network-centric approach facilitates ranking, visualization, and selection of policies
using different sets of criteria, and exploring the potential for compromise in policy
formulation. The advantage of the network-centric approach is providing the ability to go
beyond visualizations and analysis of policies and piecemeal use of network concepts as a
tool for different policy design tasks to moving to a more integrated bottom–up approach to
design. Furthermore, the computational advantages of the network-centric policy design in
considering temporal factors such as policy sequencing and addressing issues such as
layering, drift, policy failure, and delay are presented. Finally, some of the current challenges
of network-centric design are discussed, and some potential avenues of exploration
in policy design through use of computational methodologies, as well as possible integration
with approaches from other disciplines, are highlighted.
rsos.royalsocietypublishing.orgReviewCite this article .docxhealdkathaleen
rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org
Review
Cite this article: Calder M etal. 2018
Computational modelling for
decision-making: where, why, what, who and
how. R.Soc.opensci. 5: 172096.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.172096
Received: 6 December 2017
Accepted: 10 May 2018
Subject Category:
Computer science
Subject Areas:
computer modelling and
simulation/mathematical modelling
Keywords:
modelling, decision-making, data,
uncertainty, complexity, communication
Author for correspondence:
Muffy Calder
e-mail: [email protected]
Computational modelling
for decision-making: where,
why, what, who and how
Muffy Calder1, Claire Craig2, Dave Culley3, Richard de
Cani4, Christl A. Donnelly5, Rowan Douglas6, Bruce
Edmonds7, Jonathon Gascoigne6, Nigel Gilbert8,
Caroline Hargrove9, Derwen Hinds10, David C. Lane11,
Dervilla Mitchell4, Giles Pavey12, David Robertson13,
Bridget Rosewell14, Spencer Sherwin15, Mark
Walport16 and Alan Wilson17
1School of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
2The Royal Society, London, UK
3Improbable, London, UK
4Arup, London, UK
5MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease
Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
6Willis Towers Watson, London, UK
7Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
8Centre for Research in Social Simulation, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
9McLaren Applied Technologies, Woking, UK
10National Cyber Security Centre, UK
11Henley Business School, University of Reading, Reading, UK
12Consultant, UK
13School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
14Volterra Partners, London, UK
15Department of Aeronautics, Imperial College London, London, UK
16UK Research and Innovation, London, UK
17The Alan Turing Institute, London, UK
BE, 0000-0002-3903-2507
In order to deal with an increasingly complex world, we
need ever more sophisticated computational models that can
help us make decisions wisely and understand the potential
consequences of choices. But creating a model requires far
more than just raw data and technical skills: it requires a
2018 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted
use, provided the original author and source are credited.
http://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.1098/rsos.172096&domain=pdf&date_stamp=2018-06-20
mailto:[email protected]
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3903-2507
2
rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org
R.Soc.open
sci.5:172096
.................................................
close collaboration between model commissioners, developers, users and reviewers. Good modelling
requires its users and commissioners to understand more about the whole process, including the
different kinds of purpose a model can have and the different technical bases. This paper offers a
guide to the process of commissioning, developing and deploying mo ...
PAD3711 Chapter 3 due May 22Part 1- essay assignment APA format.docxhoney690131
PAD3711 Chapter 3 due May 22
Part 1- essay assignment APA format
After reading Chapters 3 in the textbook prepare a 200 word response to the conclusion of Chapter 3 which states “Failure to become engaged and knowledgeable about internal politics can undermine the efficacy of information managers. ‘There’ are cases where managers with good technical skills lost their jobs due to their failure to master organizational politics. Information managers need to negotiate, bargain, dicker, and haggle with other departments. They may need to form coalitions and engage in logrolling in order to achieve their goals. A good manager needs good political skills to be effective.”Place the essay questions along with your answers on 1 page word doc
Part 2-Research Assignment APA format
Research Assignment: Using the article you used in week one- recognizes and analyzes applications of information technology in the public sector as it applies to the core public safety disciplines (law enforcement, fire services, EMS). For this article prepare a summary paper as follows:
Page One Article Title: List the article publication information using APA style for reference list citations, “e.g. Smith, N (2005). Information technology in the public sector. Technology and Public Administration Journal, 12(3), 125-136.”
Page Two Evaluation (must be at least 100 words): Using the article you summarized for Week One, critique the article's thesis (or hypotheses), methodology, evidence, logic, and conclusions from your perspective on the problem. Be constructively critical, suggesting how the research could be better or more useful. Be sure to cite other scholarly articles, by way of comparison and contrast, in support of your critique
The article I used in week one is attached along with the research paper that was turned in
here is the citation
Henderson, J. C., & Schilling, D. A. (1985). Design and Implementation of Decision Support Systems in the Public Sector. MIS Quarterly, 9(2), 157–169. https://doi-org.db07.linccweb.org/10.2307/249116
Professor puts all assignments in Turnitin
Both assignments must meet this grading criteria:
· This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomeRESPONSIVENESS (Did the student respond adequately to the paper or writing assignment?)
· Responds to assigned or selected topic; Goes beyond what is required in some meaningful way (e.g., ideas contribute a new dimension to what we know about the topic, unearths something unanticipated); Is substantive and evidence-based; Demonstrates that the student has read, viewed, and considered the Learning Resources in the course and that the assignment answer/paper topic connects in a meaningful way to the course content; and Is submitted by the due date.
· This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomeCONTENT KNOWLEDGE (Does the content in the paper or writing assignment demonstrate an understanding of the important knowledge the paper/assignment is intended to demonstrate?)
· In-depth understandi.
PAD3711 Chapter 3 due May 22Part 1- essay assignment APA format.docxaman341480
PAD3711 Chapter 3 due May 22
Part 1- essay assignment APA format
After reading Chapters 3 in the textbook prepare a 200 word response to the conclusion of Chapter 3 which states “Failure to become engaged and knowledgeable about internal politics can undermine the efficacy of information managers. ‘There’ are cases where managers with good technical skills lost their jobs due to their failure to master organizational politics. Information managers need to negotiate, bargain, dicker, and haggle with other departments. They may need to form coalitions and engage in logrolling in order to achieve their goals. A good manager needs good political skills to be effective.”Place the essay questions along with your answers on 1 page word doc
Part 2-Research Assignment APA format
Research Assignment: Using the article you used in week one- recognizes and analyzes applications of information technology in the public sector as it applies to the core public safety disciplines (law enforcement, fire services, EMS). For this article prepare a summary paper as follows:
Page One Article Title: List the article publication information using APA style for reference list citations, “e.g. Smith, N (2005). Information technology in the public sector. Technology and Public Administration Journal, 12(3), 125-136.”
Page Two Evaluation (must be at least 100 words): Using the article you summarized for Week One, critique the article's thesis (or hypotheses), methodology, evidence, logic, and conclusions from your perspective on the problem. Be constructively critical, suggesting how the research could be better or more useful. Be sure to cite other scholarly articles, by way of comparison and contrast, in support of your critique
The article I used in week one is attached along with the research paper that was turned in
here is the citation
Henderson, J. C., & Schilling, D. A. (1985). Design and Implementation of Decision Support Systems in the Public Sector. MIS Quarterly, 9(2), 157–169. https://doi-org.db07.linccweb.org/10.2307/249116
Professor puts all assignments in Turnitin
Both assignments must meet this grading criteria:
· This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomeRESPONSIVENESS (Did the student respond adequately to the paper or writing assignment?)
· Responds to assigned or selected topic; Goes beyond what is required in some meaningful way (e.g., ideas contribute a new dimension to what we know about the topic, unearths something unanticipated); Is substantive and evidence-based; Demonstrates that the student has read, viewed, and considered the Learning Resources in the course and that the assignment answer/paper topic connects in a meaningful way to the course content; and Is submitted by the due date.
· This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomeCONTENT KNOWLEDGE (Does the content in the paper or writing assignment demonstrate an understanding of the important knowledge the paper/assignment is intended to demonstrate?)
· In-depth understandi.
Crowdsourcing: a new tool for policy-making?Araz Taeihagh
Crowdsourcing is rapidly evolving and applied in situations where ideas, labour, opinion or expertise of large groups of people are used. Crowdsourcing is now used in various policy-making initiatives; however, this use has usually focused on open collaboration platforms and specific stages of the policy process, such as agenda-setting and policy evaluations. Other forms of crowdsourcing have been neglected in policymaking, with a few exceptions. This article examines crowdsourcing as a tool for policymaking, and explores the nuances of the technology and its use and implications for different stages of the policy process. The article addresses questions surrounding the role of crowdsourcing and whether it can be considered as a policy tool or as a technological enabler and investigates the current trends and future directions of crowdsourcing.
eGovernment measurement for policy makersePractice.eu
Author: Jeremy Millard.
The eGovernment policy focus has moved over the last five years from being mainly concerned with efficiency to being concerned both with efficiency and effectiveness. This paper examines the current and future development of eGovernment policy making, and the critical role that measurement and impact analysis has in it.
Which policy first? A network-centric approach for the analysis and ranking o...Araz Taeihagh
In addressing various policy problems, deciding which policy measure to start with given the range of measures available is challenging and essentially involves a process of ranking the alternatives, commonly done using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. In this paper a new methodology for analysis and ranking of policy measures is introduced which combines network analysis and MCDA tools. This methodology not only considers the internal properties of the measures but also their interactions with other potential measures. Consideration of such interactions provides additional insights into the process of policy formulation and can help domain experts and policy makers to better assess the policy measures and to understand the complexities involved. This new methodology is applied in this paper to the formulation of a policy to increase walking and cycling.
Crowdsourcing the Policy Cycle - Collective Intelligence 2014 Araz Taeihagh ...Araz Taeihagh
Crowdsourcing is beginning to be used for policymaking. The “wisdom of crowds” [Surowiecki 2005], and crowdsourcing [Brabham 2008], are seen as new avenues that can shape all kinds of policy, from transportation policy [Nash 2009] to urban planning [Seltzer and Mahmoudi 2013], to climate policy. In general, many have high expectations for positive outcomes with crowdsourcing, and based on both anecdotal and empirical evidence, some of these expectations seem justified [Majchrzak and Malhotra 2013]. Yet, to our knowledge, research has yet to emerge that unpacks the different forms of crowdsourcing in light of each stage of the well-established policy cycle. This work addresses this research gap, and in doing so brings increased nuance to the application of crowdsourcing techniques for policymaking.
r The Impact of Social Policy Pranab Chatterjee an.docxaudeleypearl
r
The Impact of
Social Policy
Pranab Chatterjee and Diwakar Vadapalli
'"I·-\ere is increasing recognition today that social policies and programs
should be carefully evaluated to determine whether they do, in fact,
meet their stated objectives. Althongh it has often been assumed that social
policies have a positive impact, this assumption has been called into question
by many critics of government social programs. This chapter discusses the
ways in which the impact of social policies can be assessed. It describes the
principles and techniques used in different types of evaluation. Although
evaluation research has become increasingly sophisticated, values and ideolo
gies continue to play an important role in deciding which policy approaches
work best.
___________ The logic of Bmpact Analysis
Rossi and Freeman (1985, 1993) and Rossi, Lipsey, and Freeman (2004)
observe that there are four phases of social policy evaluation. These are
needs assessment, selection of a program to respond to needs, impact evalu
ation, and cost-benefit analysis. Upon outlining the four phases of evalua
tion, they discuss many experimental, quasi-experimental, and time-series
designs that can be used for program evaluation. Mohr (1995) singled out
the idea of impact evaluation and called it an attempt to isolate the direct
effects of a policy (or, more precisely, a program derived from a policy) apart
from any confounding environmental effects. Earlier, Suchman (1967) sng
gested tbat a program is a form of social experiment, and any evaluation of
it leads to the conclusion tbat the program does or does not produce given
social ends. Following Suchrnan's ideas, Riecken and Baruch (1974) listed
ways of evaluating the impact of social experiments, many of which can be
construed as preludes to new forms of social policy. Schalock (2001), using
83
84
I
THE NATURE OF SOCIAL POLICY
T
these contributions, defined outcome-based evaluation as evaluation that
uses valued and objective person- and organization-referenced outcon1es to
analyze a program's effectiveness, impact, or efficiency. Snchman (1967), in
his earlier work, had stated that, if any one program does not produce given
social ends, one should conclude that it is a case of program failure.
However, if it seems that a substantial number of programs, all similar
in nature, do not produce given ends, then it indicates a case of theory fail
ure. In other words, the theory that generated the programs (as interven
tions to bring about a change) has been developed on faulty premises.
The groundwork of Rossi and Suchman on impact analysis (both of
social programs and of the parent policies or theories on which they rest) is
based on the assumption that quantitative analysis and multivariate design
will produce knowledge about the impact of social policies and programs.
Ask a typical policy analyst, academic, or program-administrator about the
impact of social ...
Chapters 4,5 and 6Into policymaking and modeling in a comple.docxtiffanyd4
Chapters 4,5 and 6
Into policymaking and modeling in a complex world
From Building a model to adaptive robust decision- making using systems modelling
Features and added value of simulation Models using different modelling approaches supporting policymaking: A comparative analysis.
Chapter Goals and Objectives Overall – students will learn and understand
consequences of complexity in the real-world, and meaningful ways to understand and manage such situations
the implications of complexity and that many social systems are unpredictable by nature, especially when in the presence of structural change (transitions)
natural tendency to criticize the approaches that ignore difficulties and pretend to predict using simplistic models
that managing a complex system requires a good understanding of the dynamics of the system in question—to know, before they occur, some of the real possibilities that might occur and be ready so they can be reacted to as responsively as possible.
4. Policymaking and modeling in a complex world
the word “complexity” can be used to indicate a variety of kinds of difficulties
identification of complexity and uncertainty in policy-making
in very simple physical systems, interactions may give rise to complex behavior, expressed in different types of behavior, ranging from very stable to chaotic
reasons why complex adaptive systems have a strong capacity to self-organize
two of the ways systems are oversimplified: quantification and compartmentalization
models are assessed by their ability to predict/mirror observed aspects of the environments
5. From building a model to adaptive robust decision-making using systems modeling
System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Old
✓ methods for modeling and simulating dynamically complex systems
✓ evolutions in modeling and simulation with recent explosive growth in computational power, data, social media, to support decision-making
Recent Innovations and Expected Evolutions
✓ Why often seemingly more revolutionary—innovations have been introduced and demonstrated, but that they have not been massively adopted yet
Current and Expected Evolutions
✓ Three current evolutions expected to further reinforce - “experiential art” to “computational science.”
Future State of Practice of Systems Modeling and Simulation
✓ modeling and simulation with sparse data to modeling and simulation with (near real-time) big data;
✓ simulating and analyzing a few simulation runs to simulating and simultaneously analyzing well-selected ensembles of runs;
✓ using models for intuitive policy testing to using models as instruments for designing adaptive robust robust policies;
✓ developing educational flight simulators to fully integrated decision support.
Features and added value of simulation models using different modelling approaches to policy-making: A Comparative analysis
Foundations of Simulation Modelling
✓ model simplification definitions—smaller, less detailed, le.
Chapters 4,5 and 6Into policymaking and modeling in a comple.docxmccormicknadine86
Chapters 4,5 and 6
Into policymaking and modeling in a complex world
From Building a model to adaptive robust decision- making using systems modelling
Features and added value of simulation Models using different modelling approaches supporting policymaking: A comparative analysis.
Chapter Goals and Objectives Overall – students will learn and understand
consequences of complexity in the real-world, and meaningful ways to understand and manage such situations
the implications of complexity and that many social systems are unpredictable by nature, especially when in the presence of structural change (transitions)
natural tendency to criticize the approaches that ignore difficulties and pretend to predict using simplistic models
that managing a complex system requires a good understanding of the dynamics of the system in question—to know, before they occur, some of the real possibilities that might occur and be ready so they can be reacted to as responsively as possible.
4. Policymaking and modeling in a complex world
the word “complexity” can be used to indicate a variety of kinds of difficulties
identification of complexity and uncertainty in policy-making
in very simple physical systems, interactions may give rise to complex behavior, expressed in different types of behavior, ranging from very stable to chaotic
reasons why complex adaptive systems have a strong capacity to self-organize
two of the ways systems are oversimplified: quantification and compartmentalization
models are assessed by their ability to predict/mirror observed aspects of the environments
5. From building a model to adaptive robust decision-making using systems modeling
System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Old
✓ methods for modeling and simulating dynamically complex systems
✓ evolutions in modeling and simulation with recent explosive growth in computational power, data, social media, to support decision-making
Recent Innovations and Expected Evolutions
✓ Why often seemingly more revolutionary—innovations have been introduced and demonstrated, but that they have not been massively adopted yet
Current and Expected Evolutions
✓ Three current evolutions expected to further reinforce - “experiential art” to “computational science.”
Future State of Practice of Systems Modeling and Simulation
✓ modeling and simulation with sparse data to modeling and simulation with (near real-time) big data;
✓ simulating and analyzing a few simulation runs to simulating and simultaneously analyzing well-selected ensembles of runs;
✓ using models for intuitive policy testing to using models as instruments for designing adaptive robust robust policies;
✓ developing educational flight simulators to fully integrated decision support.
Features and added value of simulation models using different modelling approaches to policy-making: A Comparative analysis
Foundations of Simulation Modelling
✓ model simplification definitions—smaller, less detailed, le ...
Option #2Researching a Leader Complete preliminary rese.docxmccormicknadine86
Option #2:
Researching a Leader
Complete preliminary research on the Internet and/or using online library databases. Compose a 1 PAGE summary of sources and an overview of each source.
Post any questions or comments about the content or requirements of the Portfolio Project to the questions thread in the Discussion Forum.
.
Option 1 ImperialismThe exploitation of colonial resources.docxmccormicknadine86
Option 1: Imperialism
The exploitation of colonial resources and indigenous labor was one of the key elements in the success of imperialism. Such exploitation was a result of the prevalent ethnocentrism of the time and was justified by the unscientific concept of social Darwinism, which praised the characteristics of white Europeans and inaccurately ascribed negative characteristics to indigenous peoples. A famous poem of the time by Rudyard Kipling, "White Man's Burden," called on imperial powers, and particularly the U.S., at whom the poem was directed, to take up the mission of civilizing these "savage" peoples.
Read the poem at the following link:
Link (website):
White Man's Burden (Links to an external site.)
(Rudyard Kipling)
After reading the poem, address the following in a case study analysis:
Select a specific part of the world (a country), and examine imperialism in that country. What was the relationship between the invading country and the native people? You can select from these examples or choose your own:
Belgium & Africa
Britain & India
Germany & Africa
France & Africa
Apply social Darwinism to this specific case.
Analyze the motivations of the invading country?
How did ethnocentrism manifest in their interactions?
How does Kipling's poem apply to your specific example? You can quote lines for comparison.
.
More Related Content
Similar to Computational Modelling of Public PolicyReflections on Prac.docx
PAD3711 Chapter 3 due May 22Part 1- essay assignment APA format.docxaman341480
PAD3711 Chapter 3 due May 22
Part 1- essay assignment APA format
After reading Chapters 3 in the textbook prepare a 200 word response to the conclusion of Chapter 3 which states “Failure to become engaged and knowledgeable about internal politics can undermine the efficacy of information managers. ‘There’ are cases where managers with good technical skills lost their jobs due to their failure to master organizational politics. Information managers need to negotiate, bargain, dicker, and haggle with other departments. They may need to form coalitions and engage in logrolling in order to achieve their goals. A good manager needs good political skills to be effective.”Place the essay questions along with your answers on 1 page word doc
Part 2-Research Assignment APA format
Research Assignment: Using the article you used in week one- recognizes and analyzes applications of information technology in the public sector as it applies to the core public safety disciplines (law enforcement, fire services, EMS). For this article prepare a summary paper as follows:
Page One Article Title: List the article publication information using APA style for reference list citations, “e.g. Smith, N (2005). Information technology in the public sector. Technology and Public Administration Journal, 12(3), 125-136.”
Page Two Evaluation (must be at least 100 words): Using the article you summarized for Week One, critique the article's thesis (or hypotheses), methodology, evidence, logic, and conclusions from your perspective on the problem. Be constructively critical, suggesting how the research could be better or more useful. Be sure to cite other scholarly articles, by way of comparison and contrast, in support of your critique
The article I used in week one is attached along with the research paper that was turned in
here is the citation
Henderson, J. C., & Schilling, D. A. (1985). Design and Implementation of Decision Support Systems in the Public Sector. MIS Quarterly, 9(2), 157–169. https://doi-org.db07.linccweb.org/10.2307/249116
Professor puts all assignments in Turnitin
Both assignments must meet this grading criteria:
· This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomeRESPONSIVENESS (Did the student respond adequately to the paper or writing assignment?)
· Responds to assigned or selected topic; Goes beyond what is required in some meaningful way (e.g., ideas contribute a new dimension to what we know about the topic, unearths something unanticipated); Is substantive and evidence-based; Demonstrates that the student has read, viewed, and considered the Learning Resources in the course and that the assignment answer/paper topic connects in a meaningful way to the course content; and Is submitted by the due date.
· This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomeCONTENT KNOWLEDGE (Does the content in the paper or writing assignment demonstrate an understanding of the important knowledge the paper/assignment is intended to demonstrate?)
· In-depth understandi.
Crowdsourcing: a new tool for policy-making?Araz Taeihagh
Crowdsourcing is rapidly evolving and applied in situations where ideas, labour, opinion or expertise of large groups of people are used. Crowdsourcing is now used in various policy-making initiatives; however, this use has usually focused on open collaboration platforms and specific stages of the policy process, such as agenda-setting and policy evaluations. Other forms of crowdsourcing have been neglected in policymaking, with a few exceptions. This article examines crowdsourcing as a tool for policymaking, and explores the nuances of the technology and its use and implications for different stages of the policy process. The article addresses questions surrounding the role of crowdsourcing and whether it can be considered as a policy tool or as a technological enabler and investigates the current trends and future directions of crowdsourcing.
eGovernment measurement for policy makersePractice.eu
Author: Jeremy Millard.
The eGovernment policy focus has moved over the last five years from being mainly concerned with efficiency to being concerned both with efficiency and effectiveness. This paper examines the current and future development of eGovernment policy making, and the critical role that measurement and impact analysis has in it.
Which policy first? A network-centric approach for the analysis and ranking o...Araz Taeihagh
In addressing various policy problems, deciding which policy measure to start with given the range of measures available is challenging and essentially involves a process of ranking the alternatives, commonly done using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. In this paper a new methodology for analysis and ranking of policy measures is introduced which combines network analysis and MCDA tools. This methodology not only considers the internal properties of the measures but also their interactions with other potential measures. Consideration of such interactions provides additional insights into the process of policy formulation and can help domain experts and policy makers to better assess the policy measures and to understand the complexities involved. This new methodology is applied in this paper to the formulation of a policy to increase walking and cycling.
Crowdsourcing the Policy Cycle - Collective Intelligence 2014 Araz Taeihagh ...Araz Taeihagh
Crowdsourcing is beginning to be used for policymaking. The “wisdom of crowds” [Surowiecki 2005], and crowdsourcing [Brabham 2008], are seen as new avenues that can shape all kinds of policy, from transportation policy [Nash 2009] to urban planning [Seltzer and Mahmoudi 2013], to climate policy. In general, many have high expectations for positive outcomes with crowdsourcing, and based on both anecdotal and empirical evidence, some of these expectations seem justified [Majchrzak and Malhotra 2013]. Yet, to our knowledge, research has yet to emerge that unpacks the different forms of crowdsourcing in light of each stage of the well-established policy cycle. This work addresses this research gap, and in doing so brings increased nuance to the application of crowdsourcing techniques for policymaking.
r The Impact of Social Policy Pranab Chatterjee an.docxaudeleypearl
r
The Impact of
Social Policy
Pranab Chatterjee and Diwakar Vadapalli
'"I·-\ere is increasing recognition today that social policies and programs
should be carefully evaluated to determine whether they do, in fact,
meet their stated objectives. Althongh it has often been assumed that social
policies have a positive impact, this assumption has been called into question
by many critics of government social programs. This chapter discusses the
ways in which the impact of social policies can be assessed. It describes the
principles and techniques used in different types of evaluation. Although
evaluation research has become increasingly sophisticated, values and ideolo
gies continue to play an important role in deciding which policy approaches
work best.
___________ The logic of Bmpact Analysis
Rossi and Freeman (1985, 1993) and Rossi, Lipsey, and Freeman (2004)
observe that there are four phases of social policy evaluation. These are
needs assessment, selection of a program to respond to needs, impact evalu
ation, and cost-benefit analysis. Upon outlining the four phases of evalua
tion, they discuss many experimental, quasi-experimental, and time-series
designs that can be used for program evaluation. Mohr (1995) singled out
the idea of impact evaluation and called it an attempt to isolate the direct
effects of a policy (or, more precisely, a program derived from a policy) apart
from any confounding environmental effects. Earlier, Suchman (1967) sng
gested tbat a program is a form of social experiment, and any evaluation of
it leads to the conclusion tbat the program does or does not produce given
social ends. Following Suchrnan's ideas, Riecken and Baruch (1974) listed
ways of evaluating the impact of social experiments, many of which can be
construed as preludes to new forms of social policy. Schalock (2001), using
83
84
I
THE NATURE OF SOCIAL POLICY
T
these contributions, defined outcome-based evaluation as evaluation that
uses valued and objective person- and organization-referenced outcon1es to
analyze a program's effectiveness, impact, or efficiency. Snchman (1967), in
his earlier work, had stated that, if any one program does not produce given
social ends, one should conclude that it is a case of program failure.
However, if it seems that a substantial number of programs, all similar
in nature, do not produce given ends, then it indicates a case of theory fail
ure. In other words, the theory that generated the programs (as interven
tions to bring about a change) has been developed on faulty premises.
The groundwork of Rossi and Suchman on impact analysis (both of
social programs and of the parent policies or theories on which they rest) is
based on the assumption that quantitative analysis and multivariate design
will produce knowledge about the impact of social policies and programs.
Ask a typical policy analyst, academic, or program-administrator about the
impact of social ...
Chapters 4,5 and 6Into policymaking and modeling in a comple.docxtiffanyd4
Chapters 4,5 and 6
Into policymaking and modeling in a complex world
From Building a model to adaptive robust decision- making using systems modelling
Features and added value of simulation Models using different modelling approaches supporting policymaking: A comparative analysis.
Chapter Goals and Objectives Overall – students will learn and understand
consequences of complexity in the real-world, and meaningful ways to understand and manage such situations
the implications of complexity and that many social systems are unpredictable by nature, especially when in the presence of structural change (transitions)
natural tendency to criticize the approaches that ignore difficulties and pretend to predict using simplistic models
that managing a complex system requires a good understanding of the dynamics of the system in question—to know, before they occur, some of the real possibilities that might occur and be ready so they can be reacted to as responsively as possible.
4. Policymaking and modeling in a complex world
the word “complexity” can be used to indicate a variety of kinds of difficulties
identification of complexity and uncertainty in policy-making
in very simple physical systems, interactions may give rise to complex behavior, expressed in different types of behavior, ranging from very stable to chaotic
reasons why complex adaptive systems have a strong capacity to self-organize
two of the ways systems are oversimplified: quantification and compartmentalization
models are assessed by their ability to predict/mirror observed aspects of the environments
5. From building a model to adaptive robust decision-making using systems modeling
System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Old
✓ methods for modeling and simulating dynamically complex systems
✓ evolutions in modeling and simulation with recent explosive growth in computational power, data, social media, to support decision-making
Recent Innovations and Expected Evolutions
✓ Why often seemingly more revolutionary—innovations have been introduced and demonstrated, but that they have not been massively adopted yet
Current and Expected Evolutions
✓ Three current evolutions expected to further reinforce - “experiential art” to “computational science.”
Future State of Practice of Systems Modeling and Simulation
✓ modeling and simulation with sparse data to modeling and simulation with (near real-time) big data;
✓ simulating and analyzing a few simulation runs to simulating and simultaneously analyzing well-selected ensembles of runs;
✓ using models for intuitive policy testing to using models as instruments for designing adaptive robust robust policies;
✓ developing educational flight simulators to fully integrated decision support.
Features and added value of simulation models using different modelling approaches to policy-making: A Comparative analysis
Foundations of Simulation Modelling
✓ model simplification definitions—smaller, less detailed, le.
Chapters 4,5 and 6Into policymaking and modeling in a comple.docxmccormicknadine86
Chapters 4,5 and 6
Into policymaking and modeling in a complex world
From Building a model to adaptive robust decision- making using systems modelling
Features and added value of simulation Models using different modelling approaches supporting policymaking: A comparative analysis.
Chapter Goals and Objectives Overall – students will learn and understand
consequences of complexity in the real-world, and meaningful ways to understand and manage such situations
the implications of complexity and that many social systems are unpredictable by nature, especially when in the presence of structural change (transitions)
natural tendency to criticize the approaches that ignore difficulties and pretend to predict using simplistic models
that managing a complex system requires a good understanding of the dynamics of the system in question—to know, before they occur, some of the real possibilities that might occur and be ready so they can be reacted to as responsively as possible.
4. Policymaking and modeling in a complex world
the word “complexity” can be used to indicate a variety of kinds of difficulties
identification of complexity and uncertainty in policy-making
in very simple physical systems, interactions may give rise to complex behavior, expressed in different types of behavior, ranging from very stable to chaotic
reasons why complex adaptive systems have a strong capacity to self-organize
two of the ways systems are oversimplified: quantification and compartmentalization
models are assessed by their ability to predict/mirror observed aspects of the environments
5. From building a model to adaptive robust decision-making using systems modeling
System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Old
✓ methods for modeling and simulating dynamically complex systems
✓ evolutions in modeling and simulation with recent explosive growth in computational power, data, social media, to support decision-making
Recent Innovations and Expected Evolutions
✓ Why often seemingly more revolutionary—innovations have been introduced and demonstrated, but that they have not been massively adopted yet
Current and Expected Evolutions
✓ Three current evolutions expected to further reinforce - “experiential art” to “computational science.”
Future State of Practice of Systems Modeling and Simulation
✓ modeling and simulation with sparse data to modeling and simulation with (near real-time) big data;
✓ simulating and analyzing a few simulation runs to simulating and simultaneously analyzing well-selected ensembles of runs;
✓ using models for intuitive policy testing to using models as instruments for designing adaptive robust robust policies;
✓ developing educational flight simulators to fully integrated decision support.
Features and added value of simulation models using different modelling approaches to policy-making: A Comparative analysis
Foundations of Simulation Modelling
✓ model simplification definitions—smaller, less detailed, le ...
Option #2Researching a Leader Complete preliminary rese.docxmccormicknadine86
Option #2:
Researching a Leader
Complete preliminary research on the Internet and/or using online library databases. Compose a 1 PAGE summary of sources and an overview of each source.
Post any questions or comments about the content or requirements of the Portfolio Project to the questions thread in the Discussion Forum.
.
Option 1 ImperialismThe exploitation of colonial resources.docxmccormicknadine86
Option 1: Imperialism
The exploitation of colonial resources and indigenous labor was one of the key elements in the success of imperialism. Such exploitation was a result of the prevalent ethnocentrism of the time and was justified by the unscientific concept of social Darwinism, which praised the characteristics of white Europeans and inaccurately ascribed negative characteristics to indigenous peoples. A famous poem of the time by Rudyard Kipling, "White Man's Burden," called on imperial powers, and particularly the U.S., at whom the poem was directed, to take up the mission of civilizing these "savage" peoples.
Read the poem at the following link:
Link (website):
White Man's Burden (Links to an external site.)
(Rudyard Kipling)
After reading the poem, address the following in a case study analysis:
Select a specific part of the world (a country), and examine imperialism in that country. What was the relationship between the invading country and the native people? You can select from these examples or choose your own:
Belgium & Africa
Britain & India
Germany & Africa
France & Africa
Apply social Darwinism to this specific case.
Analyze the motivations of the invading country?
How did ethnocentrism manifest in their interactions?
How does Kipling's poem apply to your specific example? You can quote lines for comparison.
.
Option Wireless LTD v. OpenPeak, Inc.Be sure to save an elec.docxmccormicknadine86
Option Wireless LTD v. OpenPeak, Inc.
Be sure to save an electronic copy of your answers before submitting it to Ashworth College for grading. Unless otherwise stated, you should answer in complete sentences, and be sure to use correct English, spelling, and grammar. Sources must be cited in APA format.
Your response should be a minimum of four (4) double-spaced pages; refer to the Length and Formatting instructions below for additional details.
In complete sentences respond to the following prompts:
Summarize the facts of the case;
Identify the parties and explain each party’s position;
Outline the case’s procedural history including any appeals;
What is the legal issue in question in this case?
How did the court rule on the legal issue of this case?
What facts did the court find to be most important in making its decision?
Respond to the following questions:
Are there any situations in which it might be a good idea to include additional or different terms in the “acceptance” without making the acceptance expressly conditional on assent to the additional or different terms?
Under what conditions can a contract be formed by the parties’ conduct? Why wasn’t the conduct of the parties here used as the basis for a contract?
Do you agree or disagree with the court’s decision? Provide an explanation for your reasoning either agree or disagree.
UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF FLORIDA CASE NO. 12-80165-CIV-MARRA
OPTION WIRELESS, LTD., an Irish limited liability company, Plaintiff, v. OPENPEAK, INC., a Delaware corporation, Defendant. ______________________________/
OPINION AND ORDER
THIS CAUSE is before the Court upon Plaintiff/Counter-Defendant’s Motion to Dismiss Defendant/Counter-Plaintiff’s Counterclaim (DE 6). Counter-Plaintiff OpenPeak Inc. filed its 1 Memorandum in Opposition (DE 8). Counter-Defendant Option Wireless, Ltd, replied. (DE 12). The Court has carefully considered the briefs ofthe parties and is otherwise fully advised in the premises. I. Introduction2 In July 2010, Counter-Plaintiff OpenPeak Inc. was producing a computer tablet product for AT&T. (DE 4 ¶ 5). Seeking embedded wireless data modules for the tablet, Counter-Plaintiff submitted a purchase order to Counter-Defendant Option Wireless, Ltd, for 12,300 units of the modules at the price of $848,700.00. (DE 4 ¶ 4). Section 9 of the purchase order, labeled “BUYER’S TERMS AND CONDITIONS,” provided that [a]ll purchase orders and sales are made only upon these terms and conditions and those on the front of this document. This document, and not any quotation, invoice, or other Seller document (which, if construed to be an offer is hereby rejected), will Option Wireless, Ltd. v. OpenPeak, Inc. Doc. 19 Dockets.Justia.com 2 be deemed an offer or an appropriate counter-offer and is a rejection of any other terms or conditions. Seller, byaccepting any orders or deliverin.
Option A Land SharkWhen is a shark just a shark Consider the.docxmccormicknadine86
Option A: Land Shark
When is a shark just a shark? Consider the movie
Jaws
. What could the shark symbolize in our culture, society, or collective human mythology other than a man-eating fish? Why? Support your answer.
Next, think about a theatrical staging of
Jaws
. Describe the artistic choices you would make to bring
Jaws
the movie to Broadway. What genre would you choose? Describe at least three other elements of production and how you would approach them in your staging of
Jaws
as a stage play or musical.
Create
a response to these concepts in one of the following formats:
350- to 700-word paper
Apply
appropriate APA formatting.
.
Option 3 Discuss your thoughts on drugs and deviance. Do you think .docxmccormicknadine86
Option 3: Discuss your thoughts on drugs and deviance. Do you think using drugs is deviant behavior? Why do you think alcohol and tobacco are legal drugs and their use is not considered deviant when they are addictive, physically harmful, and socially disruptive?
No quotes or references needed.
.
OPTION 2 Can we make the changes we need to make After the pandemi.docxmccormicknadine86
OPTION 2: Can we make the changes we need to make? After the pandemic, we are in a time of significant upheaval and transition. We are all more keenly aware that economic shifts and transformations can happen suddenly and dramatically. As the World shut itself down in March 2020, it makes us all aware that we can change behavior globally and as a matter of will. In the U.S., people began to quarantine themselves ahead of government action more often than as a result of government mandates. Write a cohesive 1-2 page single-spaced document that answers the following questions.
2a. Reflecting on the profound changes we have all seen in the past year, how does that change your views regarding what might be possible with regard to energy use, carbon reductions, or other major transformations that might be needed to impact the type of climate change Earth has been experiencing.
2b. Reflect on the type of transformations that would be involved to address global warming. Now that you have seen the recent major transformations, does this make you believe that global warming threats can prompt the type of major economic and industrial changes needed to reduce the impacts that have been anticipated with increasing climate changes?
2c. What are the "experts" saying about the possibility of these transformations in light of what they have seen during the pandemic? Are researchers more or less optimistic about our global ability to reduce green house gases and control climate change after seeing the impact of the pandemic? Be sure to include REFERENCES both at the end of the text and in the text, like (Author, year)
.
Option 1 You will create a PowerPoint (or equivalent) of your p.docxmccormicknadine86
Option 1: You will create a PowerPoint (or equivalent) of your presentation and add voice over.
Option 2: If you are unable to add voice over to your PowerPoint, you will create a PowerPoint (or equivalent) of your presentation. Next, you will use
Screencast-o-
Matic
(or a similar program) to create a video recording of your screen and voice as your present the information. Third, you will upload the video presentation to
YouTube
so your instructor can view it. If you choose this option, you will submit your article as well as the PowerPoint (or equivalent) file and the link to the YouTube presentation to complete this assignment.
Guidelines:
The presentation must include both audio (your voice explaining the information) and visual (PowerPoint presentation including text and/or images). Videos should not be used within the presentation.
The presentation should include the following three aspects:
An overview of your specific topic and its importance and application in current society. Include historical information as appropriate to understand your topic.
Identification, discussion, and
critical evaluation
of the most frequently used assessment instruments related to your topic. Include the typical settings and purposes for which assessment instruments are used.
Discussion of the ethical, cultural, and societal issues concerning the use of psychological tests and assessment as related to your topic.
The presentation must be 15 minutes long (no more than 20).
The presentation must include information from at least 10 scholarly sources (if used, the course textbook does not count as one of these 10 sources).
APA style citations should be used within the presentation. A reference section (in APA style) should appear at the end of the presentation.
Resources:
.
Option A Description of Dance StylesSelect two styles of danc.docxmccormicknadine86
Option A: Description of Dance Styles
Select
two styles of dance, such as ballet, modern dance, or folk dance.
Describe
each style of dance, and
include
the following:
History and development of the style
Discussion of your understanding of the use of line, form, repetition, and rhythm in each piece
Description of what the movements of both styles communicate to you in terms of mood
Description of how artistic choice can affect the viewer in the selected style
Submit
your assignment in one of the following formats:
700- to 1,050-word paper
.
Option #2Provide several slides that explain the key section.docxmccormicknadine86
Option #2
Provide several slides that explain the key sections of your strategy you will use in the final Portfolio Project. Provide section headers and a brief description of each.
FINAL PROJECT GUIDE
In a 6- to 10-page paper, as the local Union President, design a managing union handbook for union relationship building and a process that favors union employees as well as identifying key components of the bargaining process that can easily be sold to your union members. Apply theory and design systems and policies throughout your work covering:
Contextual factors (historical and legislative) that have impacted and still impact the union environment;
policies that create a more sustainable union model;
management strategy for union collective bargaining that includes: innovative wage, benefit, and non-wage factors; and
employee engagement and involvement strategies that take into consideration the diverse and changing labor force.
.
Option 2 Slavery vs. Indentured ServitudeExplain how and wh.docxmccormicknadine86
Option 2: Slavery vs. Indentured Servitude
Explain how and why slavery developed in the American colonies.
Describe in what ways the practice of slavery was different between each colonial region in British North America.
Analyze the differences between slaves and indentured servants.
Writing Requirements (APA format)
Length: 1-2 pages (not including title page or references page)
Use standard essay writing process by including an introduction, body paragraphs, and a conclusion.
1-inch margins
Double spaced
12-point Times New Roman font
Title page
References page (minimum of 1 scholarly source)
No abstract is required
In-text citations that correspond with your end references
.
Option 2 ArtSelect any 2 of works of art about the Holocaus.docxmccormicknadine86
Option 2: Art
Select any 2 of works of art about the Holocaust. You can select from the following list or conduct additional research on Holocaust art. Make sure to get approval from your instructor if you are selecting something not on the list. Click on the link to see the list:
Link: List of Artists/Artworks
Write an analysis of each artwork, including the following information:
Identify the title, artist, date completed, and medium used.
Explain the content of the artwork - what do the images show?
How does the artwork relate to the bigger picture of the Holocaust?
How effective is the artwork in relating the Holocaust to viewers?
LIST OF ARTISTS AND ARTWORK
Morris Kestelman:
Lama Sabachthani [Why Have You Forsaken Me?]
George Mayer-Marton:
Women with Boudlers
Bill Spira:
Prisoners Carrying Cement
Jan Hartman:
Death March (Czechowice-Bielsko, January 1945)
Edgar Ainsworth:
Belsen
Leslie Cole:
One of the Death Pits, Belsen. SS Guards Collecting Bodies
Doris Zinkeisen:
Human Laundry, Belsen: April 1945
Eric Taylor:
A Young Boy from Belsen Concentration Camp
Mary Kessell:
Notes from Belsen Camp
Edith Birkin:
The Death Cart - Lodz Ghetto
Shmuel Dresner:
Benjamin
Roman Halter:
Mother with Babies
Leo Breuer:
Path Between the Barracks, Gurs Camp
Leo (Lev) Haas:
Transport Arrival, Theresienstadt Ghetto
Jacob Lipschitz:
Beaten (My Brother Gedalyahu)
Norbert Troller:
Terezin
Anselm Kiefer:
Sternenfall
.
Option #1 Stanford University Prison Experiment Causality, C.docxmccormicknadine86
Option #1:
Stanford University Prison Experiment: Causality, Controlling Patterns, and Growth Mode
Revisit Philip Zimbardo's (1971) Stanford University Prison Experiment. Analyze the experiment in terms of causality, controlling patterns, and its growth mode.
What lessons can be learned from this experiment that can be generalized to business social systems, such as organizational design/organizational structures?
Your well-written paper should meet the following requirements:
· Be 5 pages in length.
· Be formatted according to APA
· Include at least five scholarly or peer-reviewed articles
· Include a title page, section headers, introduction, conclusion, and references page.
Reference:
Revisiting the Stanford Prison Experiment: a Lesson in the Power of Situation
~~~~~~~~
BY THE 1970s, psychologists had done a series of studies establishing the social power of groups. They showed, for example, that groups of strangers could persuade people to believe statements that were obviously false. Psychologists had also found that research participants were often willing to obey authority figures even when doing so violated their personal beliefs. The Yale studies by Stanley Milgram in 1963 demonstrated that a majority of ordinary citizens would continually shock an innocent man, even up to near-lethal levels, if commanded to do so by someone acting as an authority. The "authority" figure in this case was merely a high-school biology teacher who wore a lab coat and acted in an official manner. The majority of people shocked their victims over and over again despite increasingly desperate pleas to stop.
In my own work, I wanted to explore the fictional notion from William Golding's Lord of the Flies about the power of anonymity to unleash violent behavior. In one experiment from 1969, female students who were made to feel anonymous and given permission for aggression became significantly more hostile than students with their identities intact. Those and a host of other social-psychological studies were showing that human nature was more pliable than previously imagined and more responsive to situational pressures than we cared to acknowledge. In sum, these studies challenged the sacrosanct view that inner determinants of behavior--personality traits, morality, and religious upbringing--directed good people down righteous paths.
Missing from the body of social-science research at the time was the direct confrontation of good versus evil, of good people pitted against the forces inherent in bad situations. It was evident from everyday life that smart people made dumb decisions when they were engaged in mindless groupthink, as in the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion by the smart guys in President John F. Kennedy's cabinet. It was also clear that smart people surrounding President Richard M. Nixon, like Henry A. Kissinger and Robert S. McNamara, escalated the Vietnam War when they knew, and later admitted, it was not winnable. They were .
Option A Gender CrimesCriminal acts occur against individu.docxmccormicknadine86
Option A: Gender Crimes
Criminal acts occur against individuals because of gender – some of these are labeled as hate crimes in the U.S. (consider cases of violence against transgendered and homosexual individuals) and others occur across cultures. Choose two other types of “gender crimes” and discuss what these acts reveal about deep-seated cultural values and beliefs. One possibility is to examine bride burning or dowry death in India.
Submit a paper (750-1250 words) that explores gender crimes. Provide at least three references cited within the text and listed in the references section.
.
opic 4 Discussion Question 1 May students express religious bel.docxmccormicknadine86
opic 4: Discussion Question 1
May students express religious beliefs in class discussion or assignments or engage in prayer in the classroom? What are some limitations? Support your position with examples from case law, the U.S. Constitution, or other readings.
Topic 4: Discussion Question 2
Do all student-led religious groups have an absolute right to meet at K-12 schools? If not, discuss one limitation under the Equal Access Act. May a teacher be a sponsor of the club? Can the teacher participate in its activities? Why or why not? Support your position with examples from case law, the U.S. Constitution, or other readings.
.
Option 1Choose a philosopher who interests you. Research that p.docxmccormicknadine86
Option 1:
Choose a philosopher who interests you. Research that philosopher, detailing how they developed their ideas and the importance of those ideas to the progress of philosophy and human understanding. Keep in mind that you should be focusing on their philosophy, not simply their biography, although some basic details of their life not related to philosophy may be needed, especially when it involves experiences that influenced their thinking.
Option 2:
Look at a specific Philosophical movement. Explain the ideas important to that movement (such as existentialism and positivism) and the influence they had. I am pretty flexible on what you can do with this one, so if you have an idea, don’t hesitate to ask!
Requirements
The typed body of your paper must be a minimum of 1500 words.
It should be typed, 12 point, double spaced. A minimum of three sources must be used,
.
Option #1The Stanford University Prison Experiment Structu.docxmccormicknadine86
Option #1:
The Stanford University Prison Experiment: Structure, Behavior, and Results
Philip Zimbardo’s Stanford University Prison Experiment could be described as a system whose systemic properties enabled the behaviors of the system's actors, leading to disturbing results.
Analyze the situation. What were the key elements of the system? How did the system operate? Why did the participants behave as they did? What lessons can be learned from this experiment about systems in relation to management?
Your well-written paper should meet the following requirements:
Be six pages in length.
Be formatted according to the APA
Include at least seven scholarly or peer-reviewed articles.
Include a title page, section headers, introduction, conclusion, and references page.
Reference:
Zimbardo, P. G. (2007).
Revisiting the Stanford prison experiment: A lesson in the power of situation (Links to an external site.)
.
Chronicle of Higher Education, 53(
30), B6.
BY THE 1970s, psychologists had done a series of studies establishing the social power of groups. They showed, for example, that groups of strangers could persuade people to believe statements that were obviously false. Psychologists had also found that research participants were often willing to obey authority figures even when doing so violated their personal beliefs. The Yale studies by Stanley Milgram in 1963 demonstrated that a majority of ordinary citizens would continually shock an innocent man, even up to near-lethal levels, if commanded to do so by someone acting as an authority. The "authority" figure in this case was merely a high-school biology teacher who wore a lab coat and acted in an official manner. The majority of people shocked their victims over and over again despite increasingly desperate pleas to stop.
In my own work, I wanted to explore the fictional notion from William Golding's Lord of the Flies about the power of anonymity to unleash violent behavior. In one experiment from 1969, female students who were made to feel anonymous and given permission for aggression became significantly more hostile than students with their identities intact. Those and a host of other social-psychological studies were showing that human nature was more pliable than previously imagined and more responsive to situational pressures than we cared to acknowledge. In sum, these studies challenged the sacrosanct view that inner determinants of behavior--personality traits, morality, and religious upbringing--directed good people down righteous paths.
Missing from the body of social-science research at the time was the direct confrontation of good versus evil, of good people pitted against the forces inherent in bad situations. It was evident from everyday life that smart people made dumb decisions when they were engaged in mindless groupthink, as in the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion by the smart guys in President John F. Kennedy's cabinet. It was also clear that smart people su.
Open the file (Undergrad Reqt_Individual In-Depth Case Study) for in.docxmccormicknadine86
Open the file (Undergrad Reqt_Individual In-Depth Case Study) for instruction which is
blue highlighted
and I already
highlighted yellow
for the section that you need to answer which is
SECTION 2.
I
uploaded 2 articles that you need to read to answer the questions
and Pay attention to (Individual In-Depth Case Study Rubric).
.
onsider whether you think means-tested programs, such as the Tem.docxmccormicknadine86
onsider whether you think means-tested programs, such as the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and Supplemental Security Income (SSI), create dependency among its recipients. Then, think about how the potential perception of dependency might contribute to the stigma surrounding welfare programs. Finally, reflect on the perceptions you might have regarding individuals who receive means-tested welfare and how that perception might affect your work with clients.
By Day 4
Post
an explanation of whether means-tested programs (TANF, SNAP, and SSI) create dependency. Then, explain how the potential perception of dependency might contribute to the stigma surrounding welfare programs. Finally, explain the perceptions you have regarding people who receive means-tested welfare and how that perception might affect your work with clients.
Support your post with specific references to the resources. Be sure to provide full APA citations for
.
Operations security - PPT should cover below questions (chapter 1 to 6)
Compare & Contrast access control in relations to risk, threat and vulnerability.
Research and discuss how different auditing and monitoring techniques are used to identify & protect the system against network attacks.
Explain the relationship between access control and its impact on CIA (maintaining network confidentiality, integrity and availability).
Describe access control and its level of importance within operations security.
Argue the need for organizations to implement access controls in relations to maintaining confidentiality, integrity and availability (e.g., Is it a risky practice to store customer information for repeat visits?)
Describe the necessary components within an organization's access control metric.
Power Point Presentation
7 - 10 slides total (
does not include title or summary slide
)
Try using the 6×6 rule to keep your content concise and clean looking. The 6×6 rule means a maximum of six bullet points per slide and six words per bullet point
Keep the colors simple
Use charts where applicable
Use notes section of slide
Include transitions
Include use of graphics / animations
.
Model Attribute Check Company Auto PropertyCeline George
In Odoo, the multi-company feature allows you to manage multiple companies within a single Odoo database instance. Each company can have its own configurations while still sharing common resources such as products, customers, and suppliers.
Palestine last event orientationfvgnh .pptxRaedMohamed3
An EFL lesson about the current events in Palestine. It is intended to be for intermediate students who wish to increase their listening skills through a short lesson in power point.
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdfThiyagu K
This slides describes the basic concepts of ICT, basics of Email, Emerging Technology and Digital Initiatives in Education. This presentations aligns with the UGC Paper I syllabus.
Embracing GenAI - A Strategic ImperativePeter Windle
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
Francesca Gottschalk - How can education support child empowerment.pptxEduSkills OECD
Francesca Gottschalk from the OECD’s Centre for Educational Research and Innovation presents at the Ask an Expert Webinar: How can education support child empowerment?
A Strategic Approach: GenAI in EducationPeter Windle
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
Acetabularia Information For Class 9 .docxvaibhavrinwa19
Acetabularia acetabulum is a single-celled green alga that in its vegetative state is morphologically differentiated into a basal rhizoid and an axially elongated stalk, which bears whorls of branching hairs. The single diploid nucleus resides in the rhizoid.
Operation “Blue Star” is the only event in the history of Independent India where the state went into war with its own people. Even after about 40 years it is not clear if it was culmination of states anger over people of the region, a political game of power or start of dictatorial chapter in the democratic setup.
The people of Punjab felt alienated from main stream due to denial of their just demands during a long democratic struggle since independence. As it happen all over the word, it led to militant struggle with great loss of lives of military, police and civilian personnel. Killing of Indira Gandhi and massacre of innocent Sikhs in Delhi and other India cities was also associated with this movement.
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
Introduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp NetworkTechSoup
Dive into the world of AI! Experts Jon Hill and Tareq Monaur will guide you through AI's role in enhancing nonprofit websites and basic marketing strategies, making it easy to understand and apply.
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...Sandy Millin
http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
Knowledge and skills frameworks, generally called competency frameworks, for ELT teachers, trainers and managers have existed for a few years now. However, until I created one for my MA dissertation, there wasn’t one drawing together what we need to know and do to be able to effectively produce language learning materials.
This webinar will introduce you to my framework, highlighting the key competencies I identified from my research. It will also show how anybody involved in language teaching (any language, not just English!), teacher training, managing schools or developing language learning materials can benefit from using the framework.
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...
Computational Modelling of Public PolicyReflections on Prac.docx
1. Computational Modelling of Public Policy:
Reflections on Practice
Nigel Gilbert1, Petra Ahrweiler2, Pete Barbrook-Johnson1,
Kavin
Preethi Narasimhan1, Helen Wilkinson3
1Department of Sociology, University of Surrey Guildford, GU2
7XH United Kingdom
2Institute of Sociology, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz,
Jakob-Welder-Weg 20, 55128 Mainz, Germany
3Risk
Solution
s, Dallam Court, Dallam Lane, Warrington, Cheshire, WA2
7LT, United Kingdom
Correspondence should be addressed to [email protected]
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 21(1) 14,
2018
Doi: 10.18564/jasss.3669 Url:
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/21/1/14.html
Received: 11-01-2018 Accepted: 11-01-2018 Published: 31-01-
2018
2. Abstract: Computational models are increasingly being used to
assist in developing, implementing and evalu-
ating public policy. This paper reports on the experience of the
authors in designing and using computational
models of public policy (‘policy models’, for short). The paper
considers the role of computational models in
policy making, and some of the challenges that need to be
overcome if policy models are to make an e�ec-
tive contribution. It suggests that policy models can have an
important place in the policy process because
they could allow policy makers to experiment in a virtual world,
and have many advantages compared with
randomised control trials and policy pilots. The paper then
summarises some general lessons that can be ex-
tracted from the authors’ experiencewith policymodelling.
These general lessons include the observation that
o�en themain benefit of designing andusing amodel is that it
provides anunderstanding of the policy domain,
rather than the numbers it generates; that care needs to be taken
that models are designed at an appropriate
level of abstraction; that although appropriate data for
calibration and validation may sometimes be in short
supply, modelling is o�en still valuable; that modelling
collaboratively and involving a range of stakeholders
from the outset increases the likelihood that the model will be
3. used and will be fit for purpose; that attention
needs to be paid to e�ective communication betweenmodellers
and stakeholders; and thatmodelling for pub-
lic policy involves ethical issues that need careful
consideration. The paper concludes that policy modelling
will continue to grow in importance as a component of public
policy making processes, but if its potential is to
be fully realised, there will need to be amelding of the cultures
of computationalmodelling and policymaking.
Keywords: Policy Modelling, Policy Evaluation, Policy
Appraisal, Modelling Guidelines, Collaboration, Ethics
Introduction
1.1 Computationalmodels have been used to assist in
developing, implementing and evaluating public policies for
at least three decades, but their potential remains to be fully
exploited (Johnston & Desouza 2015; Anzola et al.
2017; Barbrook-Johnson et al. 2017). In this paper, using a
selection of examples of computationalmodels used
in public policy processes, we (i) consider the roles of models
in policy making, (ii) explore policy making as a
typeof experimentation in relation tomodel experiments, and
(iii) suggest somekey lessons for thee�ectiveuse
4. of models. We also highlight some of the challenges and
opportunities facing suchmodels and their use in the
future. Ouraim is to support themodelling community that reads
this journal in its e�ort tobuild computational
models of public policy that are valuable and useful.
1.2 Webelieve this e�ort is timely given that
computationalmodels, of the type this journal regularly reports
on, are
now increasingly used by government, business, and civil
society as well as in academic communities (Hauke
et al. 2017). There are many guides to computational modelling
produced for di�erent communities, for exam-
ple in UK government the ‘Aqua Book’ (reviewed for JASSS in
Edmonds (2016)), but these are o�en aimed at
practitioner and government audiences, can be highly
procedural and technical, generally omit discussion of
failure and rarely include deeper reflections on how best to
model for public policy. Our aim here is to fill gaps
JASSS, 21(1) 14, 2018
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/21/1/14.html Doi:
10.18564/jasss.3669
[email protected]
5. le� by these formal guides, to provide reflections aimed
atmodellers, to use a selection of examples to explore
issues in an accessible way, and acknowledge failures and
learning from them.
1.3 We focus only on computational models that aim to model,
or include some modelling of, social processes.
Although some of the discussion may apply, we are not directly
considering computational models that are
purely ecological or technical in their focus, or simplermodels
such as spreadsheetswhichmay implicitly cover
social processes but either do not represent themexplicitly,
ormake extremely simple and strong assumptions.
Although ‘computational models of public policy’ is the full
and accurate term, and others o�en use ‘compu-
tational policy models’, for the sake of brevity, we will use the
term ‘policy models’ throughout the rest of this
paper.
1.4 Based on our experience, our main recommendations are
that policy modelling needs to be conducted with
a strong appreciation of the context in which models will be
used, and with a concern for their fitness for the
6. purposes for which they are designed and the conclusions drawn
from them. Moreover, policy modelling is
almost always likely to be of low or no value if done without
strong and iterative engagement with the users
of the model outputs, i.e. decision makers. Modellers must
engage with users in a deep, meaningful, ethically
informed and iterative way.
1.5 In the remainder of this paper, Section 2 introduces the role
of policy models in policy making. Section 3 ex-
plores the idea of policy making as a type of experimentation in
relation to policy model experiments. We then
discuss some examples and experiences of policymodelling
(Section 4) and draw out some key lessons to help
make policy modelling more e�ective (Section 5). Finally,
Section 6 concludes and discusses some key next
steps and other opportunities for computational policy
modellers.
The Role of Models in Policy Making
2.1 The standard, but now somewhat discredited view of policy
making is that it occurs in cycles (for example, see
the seminal arguments made in Lindblom 1959 and Lindblom
1979; and more recently o�icial recognition in
7. HM Treasury 2013). A policy problem comes to light, perhaps
through the occurrence of some crisis, a media
campaign, or as a response to a political event. This is the
agenda setting stage and is followed by policy for-
mulation, gathering support for the policy, implementing the
policy, monitoring and evaluating the success of
the policy and finally policy maintenance or termination. The
cycle then starts again, as new needs or circum-
stances generatedemands for newpolicies. Although the ideaof
apolicy cycle has themerit of being a clear and
straightforwardwayof conceptualising thedevelopmentof policy,
it hasbeen criticisedasbeingunrealistic and
oversimplifying what happens, which is typically highly
complex and contingent on multiple sources of pres-
sure and information (Cairney 2013; Moran 2015), and even
self-organising (Byrne & Callaghan 2014; Teisman &
Klijn 2008).
2.2 The idea of a cycle does, however, still help to identify the
many components that make up the design and
implementation of policy. There are at least two
areaswheremodels have a clear and important role to play: in
policy design andappraisal, andpolicy evaluation. Policy
appraisal (as defined inHMTreasury 2013, sometimes
referred to as ex-ante evaluation, consists of assessing the
8. relative merits of alternative policy prescriptions in
meeting the policy objectives. Appraisal findings are a key
input into policy design decisions. Policy evaluation
either takes a summative approach, examining whether a policy
has actually met its objectives (i.e. ex-post),
or a more formative approach to see how a policy might be
working, for whom and where (HM Treasury 2011).
In the formative role, the key goal is learning to inform future
iterations of the policy, and others with similar
characteristics.
Modelling to support policy design and appraisal
2.3 Whenused ex-ante, a policymodelmay be used to explore a
policy option, helping to identify and specify in de-
tail a consistent policy design (HM Treasury 2013), for example
by locating where best a policymight intervene,
or by identifying possible synergies or conflicts between the
mechanisms of multiple policies. Policy models
can also be used to appraise alternative policies, to see which of
several possibilities can be expected to yield
the best or most robust outcome. In this mode, a policy model is
in essence used to ‘experiment’ with alterna-
tive policy options and assumptions about the system in which
it is intervening, by changing the parameters
9. or the rules in the model and observing what the outcomes are.
This is valuable because it saves the time and
cost associatedwith having to run experiments or pilots in the
actual policy domain. This concept of themodel
as an experimental space is discussed in more detail in Section
3 below.
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2.4 The common assumption is that one builds
computationalmodels in order tomake predictions. However,
pre-
diction, in the senseofpredicting the futurevalueof
somemeasure, is in facto�en impossible inpolicydomains.
Social and economic phenomena are o�en complex (in the
technical sense, see e.g. Sawyer 2005). This means
that how some process evolves depends on random chance, its
previous history (‘path dependence’) and the
e�ect of positive and negative feedback loops. Just as with the
weather, for which exact forecasting is impos-
sible more than a few days ahead, the future course of many
10. social processes may be literally unknowable in
detail, no matter how detailed the model may be. Secondly, a
model is necessarily an abstraction from real-
ity, and since it is impossible to isolate sections of society,
from outside influences, there may be unexpected
exogenous factors that have not beenmodelled and that a�ect
the outcome.
2.5 For these reasons, the ability tomake ‘point predictions’, i.e.
forecasts of specific values at a specific time in the
future, is rarely possible. More possible is a prediction that
some event will or will not take place, or qualitative
statements about the type or direction of change of values.
Understanding what sort of unexpected outcomes
can emerge and something of the nature of how these arise also
helps design policies that can be responsive
to unexpected outcomeswhen they do arise. It can be
particularly helpful in changing environments to use the
model to explore what might happen under a range of possible,
but di�erent, potential futures - without any
commitment about which of these may eventually transpire.
Even more valuable is a finding that the model
shows that certain outcomes could not be achieved given the
assumptions of the model. An example of this is
the use of a whole system energy model to develop scenarios
11. that meet the decarbonisation goals set by the
EU for 2050 (see, for example, RAENG 2015.)
2.6 Rather di�erent from usingmodels tomake predictions or
generate scenarios is the use of models to formalise
and clarify understanding of the processes at work in some
domain. If this is done carefully, the model may be
valuable as a training or communication tool, demonstrating the
mechanisms at work in a policy domain and
how they interact.
Modelling to support policy evaluation
2.7 To evaluate a policy ex-post, one needs to compare what
happened a�er the policy has been implemented
against what would have happened in the absence of the policy
(the ‘counterfactual’). To do this, one needs
data about the real situation (with the policy evaluation) and
data about the situation if the policy had not
been implemented (the so-called ‘business as usual’ situation).
To obtain the latter, one can use a randomised
control trial (RCT) or quasi-experiment (HM Treasury 2011),
but this is o�en di�icult, expensive and sometimes
impossible to carry out due to thenature of the
interventionbarringpossibility of creating control groups (e.g. a
12. schemewhich is accessible to all, or a policy in which local
implementation decisions are impossible to control
and have a strong e�ect).
2.8 Policy models o�er some alternatives. One is to develop a
computational model and run simulations with and
without implementation of a policy, and then compare formally
the twomodel outcomes with each other and
with reality (with the policy implemented), using quantitative
analysis. This avoids the problems of having to
establish a real-world counterfactual. Once again, the policy
model is being used in place of an experiment.
2.9 Another alternative is to usemore qualitative
SystemMapping type approaches (e.g. Fuzzy Cognitive
Mapping;
seeUprichard&Penn 2016), to build qualitativemodelswith
di�erent structures and assumptions (to represent
the situation with and without the intervention), and again
interrogate the di�erent outcomes of the model
analyses.
2.10 Finally, another use in ex-post evaluation is to use models
to refine and test the theory of how policies might
have a�ected an outcome of interest, i.e. to support common
13. theory-based approaches to evaluation such as
Theory of Change (see Clark & Taplin 2012), and Logic
Mapping (see Hills 2010).
2.11 Interrogation of models and model results can be done
quantitatively (i.e. through multiple simulations, sen-
sitivity analysis, and ‘what if’ tests), but may also be done in
qualitative and participatory fashion with stake-
holders, with stakeholders involved in the actual analysis (as
opposed to just being shown the results). The
choice should be driven by the purpose of the modelling
process, and the needs of stakeholders. In both ex-
ante and ex-post evaluation, policy models can be powerful
tools to use as a route for engaging and informing
stakeholders, including the public, about policies and their
implications (Voinov & Bousquet 2010). This may
be by including stakeholders in the process, decisions, and
validation of model design; or it may be later in the
process, in using the results of amodel to open up discussions
with stakeholders, and/or even using themodel
‘live’ to explore connections between assumptions, scenarios,
and outcomes (Johnson 2015a).
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Di�iculties in the use of modelling
2.12 While, in principle, policy models have all these roles and
potential benefits, experience shows that it can be
di�icult to achieve them (see Taylor 2003; Kolkman et al. 2016,
and Section 4 for some examples). The policy
process has many characteristics that canmake it di�icult to
incorporate modelling successfully, including1:
• The need for acceptability and transparency: policy makers
may fall back on more traditional and more
widely accepted forms of evidence, especiallywhere the risks
associatedwith the decision are high. Mod-
els may appear to act as black boxes that only experts can
understand or use, with outputs highly reliant
on assumptions that are di�icult to validate. Analysts and
researchers in government o�en have little
autonomy, and although they may see the value of policy
models, it can be di�icult for them to commu-
nicate this to the decision-makers.
15. • Change and uncertainty: the environment in which the policy
will be implemented, may be highly uncer-
tain, this can undermine model development when beliefs or
decisions shi� as a result of the modelling
process (although this is equally an important outcome and
benefit of the modelling process), or other
factors.
• Short timescales: the timescales associatedwith policy
decisionmaking are almost always relatively fast,
and needs can be di�icult to predict, meaning it can be di�icult
for computational modellers to provide
timely support.
• Procurement processes: o�en departments lack the capability
and su�iciently flexible processes to pro-
cure complex modelling.
• The political and pragmatic realities of decisionmaking:
individuals’ values and political values can hold
huge sway, even in the face of empirical evidence (let
alonemodelling) that may contradict their view, or
point towards policy which is politically impossible.
• Stakeholders: There will be many di�erent stakeholders
16. involved in developing, or a�ected by, policies.
It will not be possible to engage all of these in the policy
modelling process, and indeed policy makers
may be wary of closely involving them in a participatory
modelling process.
2.13 These characteristics may also apply more widely to
evidence and other forms of research and analysis. It is
not our suggestion that these characteristics are inherently
negative; they may be important and reasonable
parts of the policy making process. The important thing to
remember, as a modeller, is that a model can only,
and should only, provide more information to the process, not a
final decision for the policy process to simply
implement.
Policy Experiments and Policy Models
3.1 Although the roles and uses of policy models are relatively
well-described and understood, our perception is
that there are still many areas where more use could be made of
modelling and that a lack of familiarity with,
and confidence in, policy modelling, is restricting its use.
Potential users may question whether policy mod-
elling in their domain is su�iciently scientifically established
17. and mature to be safely applied to guiding real-
world policies. The di�erence between applying policies to the
real world and making experimental interven-
tions in a policy model might be too big to generate any
learning from the latter to inform the former.
Policy pilots
3.2 One response is to argue that actual policy implementations
are themselves experimental interventions and
are therefore of the same character as interventions in a policy
model. Boeschen et al. (2017) propose that
we live in “experimental societies" and that implementing
policies is nothing but conducting “real-world ex-
periments". Real-world experiments are “a more or less
legitimate, methodically guided or carelessly adopted
social practice to start something new" (Krohn 2007, p. 344;
own translation). Their outcomes immediately
display “success or failure of a design process" (ibid., p. 347).
3.3 A real-world experiment implements one solution for the
policy design problem. It does not check for other
possible solutions or alternative options, but at best monitors
and responds to what is emerging in real time.
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Implementing policies as a real-world experiment is therefore
far from ideal and far removed from the idea of
reversibility in the laboratory. In laboratory experiments the
experimental system is isolated from its environ-
ment in such a way that the e�ects of single parameters can be
observed.
3.4 One approach that tries to bridge the gap between the real-
world and laboratory experiments is to conduct
policy pilots. The use of policy pilots (Greenberg & Shroder
1997; Cabinet O�ice 2003; Martin & Sanderson 1999)
as social experiments is fairly widespread. In a policy pilot, a
policy change can be assessed against a coun-
terfactual in a limited context before rolling it out for general
implementation. In this way (a small number of)
di�erent solutions can be tried out and evaluated, and learning
fed back into policy design.
3.5 A dominant method for policy pilots is the Randomised
19. Control Trial (RCT) (Greenberg & Shroder 1997; Boruch
1997), well-known frommedical research, where a carefully
selected treatment group is compared with a con-
trol group that is not administered the treatment under scrutiny.
RCTs can thus present a halfway house be-
tween an idealised laboratory experiment and a real-world
experiment. However, the claim that an RCT is ca-
pable of reproducing a laboratory situation where rigorous
testing against a counterfactual is possible has also
been contested (Cabinet O�ice 2003, p. 19). It is argued that in
principle there is no possibility of social experi-
ments due to the requirement of ceteris paribus (i.e. in the
socialworld, it is impossible to have twoexperiments
with everything equal but the one parameter under scrutiny);
that the complex system-environment interac-
tions that are necessary to adequately understand social systems
cannot be reproduced in an RCT; and that
random allocation is impossible in many domains, so that a
‘neutral’ counterfactual cannot be established.
Moreover, it may be a risky political strategy or even unethical
to administer a certain benefit in some pilot con-
text but not to the corresponding control group. This is
evenmore the case if the policy would put the selected
recipients at a disadvantage (Cabinet O�ice 2003, p. 17).
20. 3.6 While a pilot can be good for gathering evidence about a
single case, it might not serve as a good ‘one-size-fits-
all’ role model for other cases in other contexts. Furthermore, it
cannot say much about why or how the policy
worked or did not work, or decompose the ‘what works’
questions into, ‘what works, where, for whom, at what
costs, and under what conditions’? There are alsomore practical
problems to consider, among them time, sta�
resources and budget. There is general agreement that a good
pilot is costly, time-consuming, “administra-
tively cumbersome" and in need of well-trained managing sta�
(Cabinet O�ice 2003, p. 5). There is “a sense of
pessimism and disappointment with the way policy pilots and
evaluations are currently used andwere used in
the past (. . . ): poorly designed studies; weak methodologies;
impatient political masters; time pressures and
unrealistic deadlines" (Seminar on Policy Pilots and Evaluation
2013, p. 11).
3.7 Thus, policypilots cannotmeet
theclaimtobeahappymediumbetween laboratoryexperiments,with
their iso-
lation strategies capableof parameter variation, andKrohn’s
real-world experiments involving complex system-
environment interactions in real time. This is where
21. computational policy modelling comes in.
Policy models for policy experimentation
3.8 Unlike policy pilots, computational policy models are able
to work with ceteris paribus rules, random control,
and non-contaminated counterfactuals (see below). Using
policymodels, we can explore alternative solutions,
simply by trying out parameter variations in themodel, and
experiment with context-specific models and with
short, mediumand long time horizons. Furthermore,
policymodels are ethically and politically neutral to build
and run, though the use of their outcomes may not be.
3.9 Unlike real-world andpolicy pilots, policymodels allow
theuser to investigate the future. Initially themodellers
will seek to reproduce the database describing the initial state
of a real-world experiment and then extrapolate
simulated structures anddynamics into the future. At first a
baseline scenario canbederived: what if therewere
no changes in the future? This is artificial and, for
methodological reasons, boring: nothing much happens but
incremental evolution, no event, no surprise, no intervention;
changes can then be introduced.
22. 3.10 As with real-world experiments, modelling experiments
enable recursive learning by stakeholders. Stakehold-
ers can achieve system competence and practical skills through
interacting with the model to learn ‘by doing’
how to act in complex situations. With the model, it is not only
possible to simulate the real-world experiment
envisaged but also to testmultiple scenarios for potential real-
world experiments via extensive parameter vari-
ations. The whole solution space can be checked, where future
states are not only accessible but tractable.
3.11 This does not imply that it is possible to obtain exact
predictions for future states of complex social systems (see
the discussion on prediction above). Deciding under uncertainty
has to be informed di�erently:
“Experimenting under conditions of uncertainties of this kind, it
appears, will be one of the most
distinctive characteristics of decision-making in future societies
[. . . ], they import and usemethods
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23. of investigation and research. Among these are conceptual
modelling of complex situations, com-
puter simulation of possible futures, and – perhaps most
promising – the turning of scenarios into
‘real-world experiments’" (Gross & Krohn 2005, p. 77).
3.12 Regarding the continuum between the extremes of giving
no consideration (e.g. with laboratory experiments)
and full consideration (e.g. real-world experiments) to complex
system-environment interactions, policy mod-
elling experiments indeed sit somewhere in the (happy) middle.
We would argue that, where the costs or risks
associated with a policy change are high, and the context is
complex, it is not only common sense to carry out
policy modelling, but it would be unethical not to.
Examples of Policy Models
4.1 We have discussed the role of policymodels in abstract at
some length, it is now important to illustrate the use
of policy models using a number of examples of policy
modelling drawn from our own experience. These have
beenselected too�erawide rangeof typesofmodel andcontextsof
24. application. In the spirit of recording failure
as well as success, wemention not only the ultimate outcomes,
but also some of the problems and challenges
encountered along the way. In the next section, we shall draw
out some general lessons from these examples.
Tell-Me
4.2 The European-funded TELLME project focused on health
communication associatedwith influenza epidemics.
One output was a prototype agent-basedmodel, intended to be
used by health communicators to understand
the potential e�ects of di�erent communication plans under
various influenza epidemic scenarios (Figure 1).
4.3 The basic structure of the model was determined by its
purpose: to compare the potential e�ects of di�er-
ent communication plans on protective personal behaviour and
hence on the spread of an influenza epidemic.
This requires two linked models: a behaviour model that
simulates the way in which people respond to com-
munication and make decisions about whether to vaccinate or
adopt other protective behaviour, and an epi-
demic model that simulates the spread of influenza. The key
model entities are: (i) messages, which together
25. implement the communication plans; (ii) individuals, who
receive communication and make decisions about
whether to adopt protective behaviour; and (iii) regions,
whichhold information about the local epidemic state.
The major flow of influence is the e�ect that communication
has on attitude and hence behaviour, which af-
fects epidemic transmission and hence incidence. Incidence
contributes to perceived risk, which influences
behaviour and establishes a feedback relationship (see
Badham&Gilbert 2015 for the detailed specification). A
fuller description of themodel and discussion on it uses can be
found in Barbrook-Johnson et al. (2017). Amore
technical paper on a novelmodel calibration approach using the
Tell Me as an example is presented in Badham
et al. (2017).
4.4 Drawingon findings fromstakeholderworkshopsand the
results of themodel itself, themodelling teamsuggest
the TELL ME model can be useful: (i) as a teaching tool, (ii) to
test theory, and (iii) to inform data collection
(Barbrook-Johnson et al. 2017).
HOPES
4.5 Practice theories provide an alternative to the theory of
26. planned behaviour and the theory of reasoned action
to explore sustainability issues such as energy use, climate
change, food production, water scarcity, etc. The
central argument is that the routine activities (aka practices)
that people carry out in the service of everyday
living (e.g. ways of cooking, eating, travelling, etc.), o�enwith
some level of automaticity developed over time,
should be the focus of inquiry and intervention if the goal is to
transform energy- and emissions-intensiveways
of living.
4.6 The Households and Practices in Energy use Scenarios
(HOPES) agent-based model (Narasimhan et al. 2017)
was developed to formalise key features of practice theories and
to use the model to explore the dynamics of
energy use in households. A key theoretical feature that HOPES
sought to formalise is the performance of prac-
tices, enabled by the coming together of appropriate meanings
(mental activities of understanding, knowing
how and desiring, Reckwitz 2002), materials (objects, body and
mind) and skills (competences). For example,
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27. Figure 1: A screenshot of the Tell Me model interface. The
interface houses key model parameters related to
individuals’ attitude towards influenza, their consumption of
di�erent media types, the epidemiological pa-
rameters of the strain of influenza, and their social networks.
Key outputs shown include changes in people’s’
attitude, actual behaviour, and the progression of the epidemic.
The world view shows the spread of the epi-
demic (blue= epidemic not yet reached, red= high levels of
infection, green=most people recovered).
a laundry practice could signify a desire for clean clothes
(meaning) realised by using a washing machine (ma-
terial) and knowing how to operate the washing machine (skill);
performance of the practice then results in
energy use.
4.7 HOPES has two types of agents: households and practices.
Elements (meanings, materials and skills) are en-
tities in the model. The model concept is that households choose
di�erent elements to perform practices de-
pending on the socio-technical settings unique to each
28. household. The performance of somepractices result in
energy use while some do not, e.g., using a heater to keep warm
results in energy use whereas using a jumper
or blanket does not incur energy use. Furthermore, the repeated
performance of practices across space and
time causes the enabling elements to adapt (e.g. some elements
are used more popularly than others), which
subsequently a�ects the future performance of practices and
thereby energy use. A rule-based system, devel-
oped based on empirical data collected from 60 UK households,
was included in HOPES to enable households
to choose elements to perform practices. The rule-based
approach allowed organising the complex contex-
tual information and socio-technical insights gathered from the
empirical study in a structured way to choose
the most appropriate actions when faced with incomplete and/or
conflicting decisions. HOPES also includes
sub-models to calculate the energy use resulting from the
performance of practices, e.g. a thermal model of a
house is built in to consider the outdoor temperature, the type
and size of heater, and the thermostat setpoint
to estimate the energy used for thermal comfort practices in
each household.
4.8 The model is used to test di�erent policy and innovation
29. scenarios to explore the impacts of the performance
of practices on energy use. For example, the implementation of
a time of use tari� demand response scenario
shows that while some demand shi�ing is possible as a
consequence of pricing signals, there is no significant
reduction in energyuseduringpeakperiods asmanyhouseholds
cannotput o�using energy (Narasimhanet al.
2017). The overall motivation is that by gaining insight into the
trajectories of unsustainable energy consum-
ing practices (and underlying elements) under di�erent
scenarios, it might be possible to propose alternative
pathways that allowmore sustainable practices to take hold.
SWAP
4.9 The SWAPmodel (Johnson 2015b,a) is an agent-basedmodel
of farmers’ making decisions about adopting soil
and water conservation (SWC) practices on their land.
Developed in NetLogo (Wilensky 1999), the main agents
in themodel are farmers,whoaremakingdecisions aboutwhether
topractice SWCornot, andextensionagents
who are government and non-governmental actors who
encourage farmers to adopt. Farmers can also be en-
couraged or discouraged to change their behaviour depending on
what those nearby and in their social net-
30. works aredoing. The environment is a simplemodel of the soil
quality (Figure 2). Themainoutcomesof interest
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are the temporal and spatial patterns of SWC adoption. A full
description can be found in Johnson (2015b) and
Johnson (2015a).
Figure 2: Screenshot of the SWAP model key outputs and
worldview in NetLogo. The outputs show the per-
centages of farmers practicing SWC and similarly the number of
fields with SWC. In the worldview, circles show
farmer agents in various decision states, triangles show
‘extension’ agents, and the patches’ colour denotes
the presence of conservation (green or brown) and soil quality
(deeper colour means higher quality). Source:
Adapted from Johnson (2015a).
4.10 The SWAP model was developed: (i) as an ‘interested
amateur’ to be used as a discussion tool to improve the
31. quality of interaction between policy stakeholders; and (ii) as an
exploration of the theory on farmer behaviour
in the SWC literature.
4.11 The model’s use as an ‘interested amateur’ was explored
with stakeholders in Ethiopia. Using a model as an
interested amateur is a concept inspired by Dennett (2013).
Dennett suggests experts o�en talk past each other,
make wrong assumptions about others’ beliefs, and/or do not
wish to look stupid by asking basic questions.
These failings can o�en mean experts err on the side of under-
explaining issues, and thus fail to come to con-
sensus or agreeable outcomes in discussion. For Dennett, an
academic philosopher, the solution is to bring
undergraduate students – interested amateurs – into discussions
to ask the simple questions, and generally
force experts to err on the side of over-explanation.
4.12 The SWAPmodel was used as an interested amateur with a
di�erent set of experts, policy makers and o�icials
in Ethiopia. This was done because policies designed to
increase adoption of SWC have generally been un-
successful due to poor calibration to farmers’ needs. This is
understood in the literature to be a result of poor
interaction between the various stakeholdersworking on
32. SWC.Whenused, participants recognised the value of
the model and it was successful in aiding discussion. However,
participants described an inability to innovate
in their work, and viewed stakeholders ‘lower-down’ the policy
spectrum as being in more need of discussion
tools. A full description of this use of the model can be found in
Johnson (2015a).
INFSO-SKIN
4.13 The European Commission was expecting to spend
arounde77 billion on research and development through
its Horizon 2020 programme between 2014 and 2020. It is the
successor to the previous, rather smaller pro-
gramme, called Framework 7. When Horizon 2020 was being
designed, the Commission wanted to understand
how the rules for Framework 7 could be adapted for Horizon
2020 to optimise it for current policy goals, such
as increasing the involvement of small andmedium enterprises
(SMEs).
4.14 An agent-based model, INFSO-SKIN, was built to evaluate
possible funding policies. The model was set up to
reproduce the funding rules, the funded organisations and
projects, and the resulting network structures of the
33. Framework 7 programme. This model, extrapolated into the
future without any policy changes, was then used
as a benchmark for further experiments. Against this baseline
scenario, several policy changes that were under
consideration for the design of the Horizon 2020 programme
were then tested, to understand the e�ect of a
range of policy options: changes to the thematic scope of the
programme; the funding instruments; the overall
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amount of programme funding; and increasing SME
participation (Ahrweiler et al. 2015). The results of these
simulations ultimately informed the design of Horizon 2020.
Silent Spread and Exodis-FMD
4.15 Following the 2001 outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease
(FMD), the UK Department of the Environment, Food
and Rural A�airs (Defra) imposed a 20-day standstill period
prohibiting any livestock movements o�-farm fol-
34. lowing the arrival of an animal. The 20-day rule caused
significant di�iculties for farmers. The Lessons Learned
Inquiry, which reported in July 2002, recommended that the 20-
day standstill remain in place pending a de-
tailed cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of the standstill regime.
4.16 Defra commissioned the CBA in September 2002 and a
report was required in early 2003 in order to inform
changes to the movement regime prior to the spring movements
season. This timescale was challenging due
to the short timescales and limiteddata available to inform the
cost risk benefitmodelling required. A topdown
model was therefore developed that captured only the essential
elements of the decision, combining them in
an influence diagram representation of the decision to be made.
As wide a range of experts as possible were
involved in model development, helping inform the structure of
the model, its parameterisation, validation
and interpretation of the results. An Agile approach was
adopted with detail added to the model in a series of
development cycles guided by a steering group.
4.17 The resultant ‘Silent Spread’model showed that factors
suchas time todetectionof disease, aremuchmore im-