Presentation delivered at the September 19, 2011 Business Forecasting, Predictive Intelligence Summit 2011 Business Conference, sponsored by the Altamont Group, held at the Westin San Francisco Aiprort Hotel. The topic, "Integrated Demand Planning" (S&OP, Sales & Operations Planning).

1. 1
Integrated Demand Planning
Business Forecasting
Predictive Intelligence Summit 2011
Monday, September 19, 2011
The Westin San Francisco Airport Hotel
Millbrae, CA
(Summit Sponsor: The Altamont Group)
Jim Biel
Management Consultant
E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com
Phone: 847.687.5379
http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel
http://www.slideshare.net/jimbiel
Link to Conference Info: http://lnkd.in/s35bTS
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

2. 2
Professional Biography – Jim Biel
Phone: 847.687.5379, Chicago, IL
E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com
LinkedIn Profile: http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel
SlideShare Profile: http://www.slideshare.net/jimbiel
• Multi-Functional Experience, Concentrated in Consumer Product Goods (CPG)
Industry (Sara Lee, Unilever, Chiquita, Pepsi) – Retail & B-to-B
• Client Services position with a SaaS (software as a service) provider of trade
promotion software (Adesso Solutions)
• Practiced public accounting as a CPA with McGladrey; Corporate Finance
Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A) Roles
• Independent Management Consulting for large and small entities
• Experience in Business Forecasting, Sales Operations & Planning, S&OP,
Sales Systems, ERP, CRM, Demand Planning, Business Information
Management, Supply Chain, Trade Promotion Management, IT, HR, Training &
Development, and Finance (Corporate FP&A & Public Accounting, CPA)
• Core understanding of multiple supply chains – frozen, fresh, cold, dry, liquid
• Adept at integrating relevant business concepts and processes with enterprise-
wide systems, a strong business process understanding and acumen including
S&OP (boot strap and retrofit S&OP implementations).
– Demand Planning / S&OP Writings Available Here: http://www.slideshare.net/jimbiel
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

3. 3
Discussion Topic
Integrated Demand Planning
• Leverage Demand Planning To:
–Improve Demand Forecasting
Accuracy
–Drive Decision Making
• A Blend of Concept & Tactics
• The Recipe: Process, People, Performance (Metrics), Platform (Systems)
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

4. 4
Presentation Flow
• Presentation of Concepts
• Interactive As We Go – Brief Discussion / QA – Concept
by Concept – Share What We All Know (Learn From
Each Other)
• Fuller QA at End
• Welcome / Encourage Contact After Presentation – E-
Mail, Phone, LinkedIn (Take a Business Card)
• Will Be Available After to Talk 1-on-1
• Lunch / Networking Reception, etc.
• Presentation Available – E-Mail Me; Posted to My
LinkedIn Profile ( LI Link: http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel );
Posted to My SlideShare Site ( ShPt Link:
http://www.slideshare.net/jimbiel )
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

5. 5
Polling the Room
• Function
• Position / Title
• Industry
• Interest
• Your Burning Question About
Integrated Demand Planning
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

6. 6
Integrated Demand Planning
• Leverage Demand Planning To:
– Improve Demand Forecasting
Accuracy
• Process, Structure, & Ownership
• Tools, Metrics
– Drive Decision Making
• Process Alignment / Integration
– (Demand-Supply-Finance-GM)
• “Connect the Knobs” for Leadership
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

7. Demand Planning 7
(The Recipe / A Holistic View)
Process, People, Performance, Platform
• Leverage Demand Planning To:
– Improve Demand Forecasting Accuracy
• DP Starts the Process (Demand-Supply-Finance)
Process / • Defines Units, Revenue, Margin $ Can Be Derived
People
• Ownership of Forecast: Demand Owner
• Unconstrained Demand / Constrained Demand
• One Forecast (Demand/Supply/Finance/GM Consensus)
Performance • Metric Driven: Forecast Accuracy (Level/Time Fence)
Platform / • Tool / System – Foundation For Forecast
Process
• Business Intelligence / Collaboration Essential
Process • Debate the Assumptions Not the Number
Summary
• How: Tools, Collaboration, and Assumptions Managed By
Demand With a Defined Accuracy Metric (Start With
Baseline)
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

8. 8
Demand Planning
• Leverage Demand Planning To:
– Drive Decision Making
• Process Alignment / Integration
– (Demand-Supply-Finance-GM)
• “Connect the Knobs” for Leadership
GM Owner
Dem Pl
Finance Supp Pl
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

9. 9
My Bias – S&OP
(Sales & Operations Planning)
• My Preferred Business Model To:
– Improve Forecast Accuracy
– Drive Decision Making
The Concept is Easy, Execution Can Be Challenging
S&OP may be known as IBF (Integrated Business Forecasting), and possibly by other names
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

10. 10
S&OP Defined
• APICS defines S&OP as the function of setting
the overall level of manufacturing output
(production plan) and other activities to best
satisfy the current planned levels of sales (sales
plan and/or forecasts), while meeting general
business objectives of profitability, productivity,
competitive customer lead times, etc., as
expressed in the overall business plan.
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

11. 11
The S&OP Flow
Demand Finance GM
Generates Controls Monthly
Proformas, S&OP
Cost, Risk /
Ops Monthly; + Results
As Needed In + Metrics Review
Interim + Var to Bus Pl
+ Future Frcst
Utilize Demand
Supply Outputs as Basis
+ Assumptions
For Forecasts, + Bulk of Meeting:
Daily Annual Plans, Gaps, Opps in
Strategic Plans,
Weekly Add Risks / Opps / Future Frcst
Monthly Other Lifts /
Discount Factors
Balancing As Needed
+ Create Business Rules (Between Demand/Supply)
+ Forecast Time Fence: Rolling 12-24-36 Months
+ Functional Leads & Leader Participate in Monthly S&OP Review
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

12. 12
“Connecting the Knobs”
(Why Integration is Important)
• “Before we had Executive S&OP in the
Company, I Spent A Lot of Time Turning
Knobs That Weren’t Connected To
Anything”
– VP & GM Quote From Tom Wallace’s Book,
Sales & Operations Planning, The Executive’s Guide
Page 24
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

13. 13
Best Practices
• One Integrated Process (Process)
• People/Functional Alignment (People)
• One Common Set of Metrics
(Performance)
• One System of Record (Platform)
• All Demand Streams (Demand Supply)
• Integrate All Available Data (Internal &
External) - Collaboration
• One Forecast (Used by All Functions * )
* With Some Caveats
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

14. 14
Process, Metrics, Results
PROCESS PERFORMANCE METRICS
Leadership Revenue, Cost Targets
(Strategic Direction) Forecast Accuracy,
Working Capital Targets,
Inventory Targets
New Product Launch Success
Demand Feeds Service Level Targets
Supply; Balancing / Cycle Time / Quality - Processes
Capacitization / Shipment
(Ops Execution, Future Forecast)
Finance DESIRED RESULTS
($ Scorekeeper, Forward Looking Positive P&L Outcomes
Economic Advisor) Positive Working Capital Outcomes
Customer Service Levels
Productivity Improvements
Leadership Decision Making Improvements
(S&OP Process Owner)
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

15. 15
Cross Functional Alignment
Functional Role Business Role S&OP Role Communication
General Manager Strategic Direction Owns the Overall Owns Monthly S&OP
Process – The Process Meeting; Consulted
Owner Daily/Weekly as
Needed (Exception)
Demand Translates Strategy into Owns the Demand Daily, Weekly
> Sales Demand Generation; Forecast; Accountable Interaction with Supply
> Marketing Dem Planning Reports for Excess Inventory & Finance; Owns
to a Demand Leader; Generated by a Monthly Demand
Unconstrained Demand Forecast Miss Component of S&OP
Supply Fulfillment of Owns the Fulfillment of Daily, Weekly
> Finished “Constrained Demand”, the” Constrained” Interaction with
> Raw Least Cost Demand Forecast at Demand & Finance;
Least Cost (Balancing Owns Monthly Supply
with Demand Planning) Component of S&OP
Finance Economic Oversight / Counsel, Input, Risk Provides P&L
Counsel Assessment, Pro- Proformas & Risk /
Formas of Future Opportunity
Forecasts Assessment
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

16. 16
One Forecast
(Linkage – S&OP to Other Plans)
Strategic Use S&OP
Strategic Demand Supply
Target / Financial As a Gut
Plan Plan Plan Check
Intent
Use S&OP
Business Annual Demand Supply As Key
Financial
Plan Plan Plan Plan Input / Core,
Plus Risks/Ops
Use S&OP
Latest Interim Demand Supply As Key
Financial
Est / Frcst Forecasts Plan Plan Input / Core,
Plus Risks/Ops
Future Future Execution
Demand Supply Forecast / Details,
S&OP Execution Financial Active Risk / Ops
Plan Plan
/ Forecast Discussion
S&OP Outputs Validate, Support Other Planning Processes
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

17. 17
Tool Box Needed to Execute
Systems of Record & Collaboration Tools
- ERP System
- Spreadsheets
- Collaboration Tools
- Purpose Built S&OP System Capability (i.e. SteelWedge)
- Inventory Management System (i.e. SmartOps)
- Metrics Scorecard Capability
Need a well thought-out and efficient S&OP Reporting Tool
to support Meetings and interactions
> Numbers
> Metrics Reporting
> Assumptions
Make your analysts “analysts” – not data and report generators
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

18. 18
Key Learnings / Observations
• Key Learnings From My Experience
– The Concept is Easy
– The Initial Buy-In is Fairly Easy
– The Change Management Required Can Be Hard
• New Process (Includes Collaboration)
• New Technologies / Systems
• New Accountabilities / Roles
• Traditional Functional Ownership Dies Hard – Silos
• Transparency Hard For Some to Swallow
– Consistency & Month-to-Month Execution is Hard
– Leader Needs to Keep Functional Leads Feet to the Fire
– May Need a Process Coach
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

19. 19
Implementation Steps
• Education
• Assessment
• Process Design
• Roles / Responsibilities
• Metrics
• Tools / IT Solutions
• Execution / Implementation
• Process Improvement
• Business Performance Improvement
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)

20. 20
Resources
• A Book: Sales & Operations Planning,
The Executive’s Guide, Thomas
Wallace & Robert A. Stahl
• Expanded Library of Resources
Available Here,
– http://www.slideshare.net/jimbiel/sampop-resource-guide-biel-04-19-11
Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (September 19, 2011)