India's automobile sales continued to remain on sluggish trajectory as most of the companies reported a decline in sales number due to
slowdown in economic activity and increasing fuel prices. You can see the contribution of various segment for the 9MFY14 automobiles sales stands here.
Narnolia Securities Limited initiated Swaraj Engines Ltd stock CMP of INR 61, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of Rs. 54.20 by 12.0x and FY15E EPS of Rs. 61.7 We advice to book profit on the stock and BUY rating to the stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD with a target price of Rs. 148
- Balmer Lawrie's warehouse in Hyderabad handled 2 lakh doses of Covaxin, supporting India's COVID-19 vaccination drive.
- Several economic indicators, including business activity and exports, showed an uptick in January signaling continued economic recovery in India.
- Most large Indian companies reported strong quarterly earnings for Q3FY21, beating analyst estimates, driven by higher revenues from price increases, volume growth, and pent-up demand.
- India's crude oil imports in December rose to over 5 million barrels per day, the highest level in nearly three years, to meet increased fuel demand as refineries ramped up production.
This document provides an analysis on Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) from a research analyst. It recommends buying M&M shares. Key points include:
- The Indian economy and automobile industry are improving after slowdowns, which will benefit M&M.
- M&M plans new vehicle launches and expects to regain some lost market share in utility vehicles.
- Tractor demand is expected to revive in the coming fiscal years due to various factors.
- A valuation analysis indicates M&M shares are undervalued and have 18% upside potential over the next 10-12 months.
The document provides a weekly media update with news related to Balmer Lawrie and other public sector enterprises (PSEs) in India. It includes articles discussing the Modi government's plans to sell stakes in BPCL and other PSEs to raise funds, declining growth in India's manufacturing sector, falling oil and commodity prices, and India's strategy to leverage oil imports to gain access to overseas markets for its energy companies.
On the back of healthy volume growth and stable pricing scenario, we expect Tier 1 players to report USD revenue growth in the range of 2.5-7.5% Q-o-Q with TCS likely to lead the pack with growth at the higher end.
The document provides summaries of several news articles related to the Indian economy, exports, imports, oil demand and production. Key points include:
- The government plans to incentivize exports through interest subsidies and expanding export promotion schemes, while curbing non-essential imports to support the rupee and check the current account deficit.
- The rupee is expected to stabilize around 68-70 levels once the government fully implements measures to curb imports and boost exports.
- A survey shows business confidence in India reaching an all-time high, with strong growth forecasts and rising private investment.
- The government has identified assets of 9 state-owned companies slated for strategic sale that will be hived off and sold
Balmer Lawrie reported a 33% rise in Q1 net profit. It also appointed Manoj Lakhanpal as its new CFO. Several media articles covered Balmer Lawrie's positive Q1 results and new CFO appointment. BJP President Amit Shah said that India will achieve 10% growth by 2017 and urged the Congress to support the GST bill. India's exports declined for the 8th straight month, falling 10.3% in July due to lower petroleum product exports and global oil prices. Industrial output in June grew 3.8%, the highest in 4 months, led by manufacturing growth. Wholesale inflation in July touched a new low of -4.05% on lower vegetable, fuel,
The document provides a summary of various news articles from November 23rd, 2015 related to the Indian economy and government/PSUs. Some key points mentioned are:
- Prime Minister Modi said the Indian economy is growing at 7.5% and is expected to grow faster in coming years.
- Rising oil consumption indicates the economy may be picking up momentum as sales of vehicles and fuels have increased.
- RBI Governor Rajan acknowledged that China's economic slowdown has adversely impacted India.
- S&P said India's credit rating could face stress if reforms stray from the government's agenda. Passing the GST bill would be viewed positively.
Narnolia Securities Limited initiated Swaraj Engines Ltd stock CMP of INR 61, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of Rs. 54.20 by 12.0x and FY15E EPS of Rs. 61.7 We advice to book profit on the stock and BUY rating to the stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD with a target price of Rs. 148
- Balmer Lawrie's warehouse in Hyderabad handled 2 lakh doses of Covaxin, supporting India's COVID-19 vaccination drive.
- Several economic indicators, including business activity and exports, showed an uptick in January signaling continued economic recovery in India.
- Most large Indian companies reported strong quarterly earnings for Q3FY21, beating analyst estimates, driven by higher revenues from price increases, volume growth, and pent-up demand.
- India's crude oil imports in December rose to over 5 million barrels per day, the highest level in nearly three years, to meet increased fuel demand as refineries ramped up production.
This document provides an analysis on Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) from a research analyst. It recommends buying M&M shares. Key points include:
- The Indian economy and automobile industry are improving after slowdowns, which will benefit M&M.
- M&M plans new vehicle launches and expects to regain some lost market share in utility vehicles.
- Tractor demand is expected to revive in the coming fiscal years due to various factors.
- A valuation analysis indicates M&M shares are undervalued and have 18% upside potential over the next 10-12 months.
The document provides a weekly media update with news related to Balmer Lawrie and other public sector enterprises (PSEs) in India. It includes articles discussing the Modi government's plans to sell stakes in BPCL and other PSEs to raise funds, declining growth in India's manufacturing sector, falling oil and commodity prices, and India's strategy to leverage oil imports to gain access to overseas markets for its energy companies.
On the back of healthy volume growth and stable pricing scenario, we expect Tier 1 players to report USD revenue growth in the range of 2.5-7.5% Q-o-Q with TCS likely to lead the pack with growth at the higher end.
The document provides summaries of several news articles related to the Indian economy, exports, imports, oil demand and production. Key points include:
- The government plans to incentivize exports through interest subsidies and expanding export promotion schemes, while curbing non-essential imports to support the rupee and check the current account deficit.
- The rupee is expected to stabilize around 68-70 levels once the government fully implements measures to curb imports and boost exports.
- A survey shows business confidence in India reaching an all-time high, with strong growth forecasts and rising private investment.
- The government has identified assets of 9 state-owned companies slated for strategic sale that will be hived off and sold
Balmer Lawrie reported a 33% rise in Q1 net profit. It also appointed Manoj Lakhanpal as its new CFO. Several media articles covered Balmer Lawrie's positive Q1 results and new CFO appointment. BJP President Amit Shah said that India will achieve 10% growth by 2017 and urged the Congress to support the GST bill. India's exports declined for the 8th straight month, falling 10.3% in July due to lower petroleum product exports and global oil prices. Industrial output in June grew 3.8%, the highest in 4 months, led by manufacturing growth. Wholesale inflation in July touched a new low of -4.05% on lower vegetable, fuel,
The document provides a summary of various news articles from November 23rd, 2015 related to the Indian economy and government/PSUs. Some key points mentioned are:
- Prime Minister Modi said the Indian economy is growing at 7.5% and is expected to grow faster in coming years.
- Rising oil consumption indicates the economy may be picking up momentum as sales of vehicles and fuels have increased.
- RBI Governor Rajan acknowledged that China's economic slowdown has adversely impacted India.
- S&P said India's credit rating could face stress if reforms stray from the government's agenda. Passing the GST bill would be viewed positively.
This summary provides the key details from the document in 3 sentences:
The document is a weekly media update from Balmer Lawrie that includes news about the company, other PSUs, and related business sectors. It mentions that Balmer Lawrie's CMD aims to double revenues by 2021 by leveraging traditional areas of expertise, and that 64 central PSUs showed capital erosion of Rs. 74,000 crore according to a CAG report. The update also covers various news stories about the Indian economy, including GDP growth forecasts and figures on the core sectors and services industry.
The document provides an overview of the Indian real estate sector in the first half of 2016. It notes that real estate is gradually strengthening as an investment market with regulatory reforms adding credibility. Key initiatives like 'Housing for All' and 'Smart Cities' have revived the market. The Real Estate Regulatory Act and Goods and Services Tax are expected to bring further transparency. Foreign investment in real estate reached $40 billion for 2015-16, up 29% from the previous year, indicating improved ease of business. Overall the sector is poised for further growth driven by expanding demand.
- India remained the world's fastest growing major economy in 2018 despite volatility, with GDP growth of 8.2% in the first quarter and 7.1% in the second quarter. However, growth is projected to slow to 7.2% for the full fiscal year.
- The growth of India's core infrastructure sectors slowed to a 16-month low of 3.5% in November 2018 due to weaker output in cement, electricity, and coal.
- The government raised a record Rs. 77,417 crore from the sale of stakes in public sector undertakings in 2018 and plans to privatize Air India in 2019 to meet its disinvestment target. However, it may fall short of its Rs
Hindustan Zinc’s (HZL) Q3FY14 stood at Rs. 3450.1 crore higher by 8.6% YoY. We reaffirm our positive stance on HZL and assign a BUY rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 148
- The Indian equity market ended at fresh record highs as institutional investors bought stocks on hopes that the Finance Minister would announce economic reforms. Shares of Adani Group companies rose up to 10%.
- Bajaj Auto's auto sales in June stood at 3.05 lakh units compared to 2.95 lakh units last year. Coal India rose 2.05% after declaring production and offtake data for June.
- Asian stock markets were mostly higher after a positive close on Wall Street while European stocks were mixed as markets awaited an ECB policy meeting and US employment data.
The document discusses the taxation rules for capital gains from investments in mutual funds in India. It explains that capital gains are the profits made from selling mutual fund units at a higher price than what was paid. It then outlines the key differences in how short-term and long-term capital gains are taxed for equity funds and debt funds. For equity funds, long-term capital gains over 12 months are tax-free, while short-term gains under 12 months are taxed at 15%. For debt funds, long-term gains over 36 months are taxed at 20% with indexation, and short-term gains are taxed at the individual's income tax slab rate.
Auto Data Update_December and Year Ending 2016Jeet Ghosh
- Auto sales in India declined significantly in December 2016, with overall sales dropping 19% year-over-year due to the impact of demonetization. Two-wheelers, passenger cars, and commercial vehicles all saw declines of 15-30%.
- Most major automakers like Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, and Ashok Leyland reported year-over-year sales decreases in December. Eicher Motors was an exception with 43% sales growth.
- For the full year of 2016, auto sales were mixed with double-digit growth in the first half but declines in the last two months due to demonetization, resulting in an overall 18% sales drop in December 2016 versus the previous year.
CII - 85th Business Outlook Survey October- December 2013BFSICM
Value of
Production
(Oct - Dec)
Inventories
(July - Sep)
Inventories
(Oct - Dec)
Sales
(July - Sep)
Sales
(Oct - Dec)
1) The CII Business Confidence Index increased sharply to 54.9 in Q3 FY14 from 45.7 in the previous quarter, indicating improved investor sentiment.
2) Majority of respondents expect GDP growth in FY14 to be 4.5-5.0% and inflation to be above 7%. Most also expect the fiscal deficit to be 4.5-5.0% and current account deficit to be 3.5-
This document provides a weekly media update from Balmer Lawrie, including news related to the company, PSEs, and industries relevant to Balmer Lawrie's business. Key articles summarize reports on the biolubricants market size and growth, Seychelles tourism events that recognized Balmer Lawrie, forecasts for India's GDP growth in 2016-17, updates on manufacturing and services sector growth, and discussions on India's proposed GST structure and rates. The document also includes brief snippets on other topics like business confidence, credit availability, global business optimism rankings, and the role of the private sector in energy security.
This document summarizes the key developments in the Indian real estate market in Q2 2015. It notes that real estate is experiencing renewed investor confidence with most major markets seeing brisk activity. The CIRIL network report covers trends in 8 major Indian real estate markets for the period of April to June 2015. CIRIL now has offices in 16 locations across India covering 280+ locations to provide real estate consulting services. Overall the real estate market is stable with commercial sectors seeing upward trends, though policy benefits have yet to fully impact returns on investment.
HVS - 2015 - Hotels in India Trends & OpportunitiesHemangi Bhandari
This document is the 2015 edition of the HVS Hotels in India Trends & Opportunities report. It provides an overview of key trends in the Indian hotel industry and economy in 2014/15. Hotel survey participation reached a record high of 872 hotels and 1.08 million rooms. GDP growth was estimated at 7.4% for 2014/15, with the services sector growing at 10.6%. The travel and tourism industry contributed $7.6 billion (6.7%) to India's GDP in 2014 and is projected to contribute $16.6 billion (7.6%) by 2025. Foreign tourist arrivals grew by 7.1% in 2014.
- Rupee depreciation does not always lead to higher export growth, according to the Engineering Export Promotion Council of India (EEPC). While the rupee depreciated more in July compared to June, export growth was lower in July at 9.37% versus 14.17% in June.
- Manufacturing sector growth slowed in August according to a private survey, with the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI falling from 52.3 in July to a 3-month low of 51.7 in August, indicating a loss of momentum.
- Services activity in India also expanded at a slower pace in August compared to July, with the Nikkei/IHS Markit Services PMI declining
The document provides a summary of news related to the Indian economy, public sector enterprises (PSEs), and Balmer Lawrie. Key points include:
- The Indian economy is forecast to grow at 7.5% in the next fiscal year, benefiting from lower oil prices.
- China's overcapacity in heavy industries like steel and cement is damaging the global economy.
- The Indian rupee hit a 30-month low and may depreciate further against the US dollar by the end of the year.
- The Indian government plans to classify "weak" PSEs and closely monitor them to prevent losses and turn them profitable before any stake sales.
- Indian merchandise exports
The document summarizes the Union Budget 2021-22 presented by the Government of India, noting that while there was no large fiscal stimulus, the absence of tax hikes and better fiscal projections provided comfort to markets. Key highlights of the budget included increased allocations to healthcare and infrastructure, as well as several long-term structural reforms that are expected to boost medium-term growth. Overall, the budget was seen as progressive and expected to provide impetus to capex-driven sectors over the next few years.
Real Estate Facilities Management | Project Services | Vestianvallispvm
Vestian is an end-to-end service provider in the Commercial Real Estate space providing investment & consultancy services, transaction advisory, project services and real estate facility management services
https://www.vestian.com/
The document provides an overview of the real estate sector in India. Some key points:
- The size of India's real estate market is expected to grow from $126 billion in 2015 to $853 billion by 2028, representing a CAGR of 15.85%.
- Rapid urbanization, growing income levels, and a large young population are driving demand for residential and commercial real estate across major cities.
- The government has introduced initiatives like the Housing for All scheme and increased FDI limits to boost investment and development in the sector.
- Segments like residential, retail, and commercial real estate are expected to see strong growth, with demand for office and retail space centered in cities like Delhi, Bengaluru
- The Hanoi residential market experienced a decline in sales transactions in Q1 2016, down 34% quarter-over-quarter. However, demand remained strong for high-end and mid-end properties.
- Average primary prices were stable, while secondary prices decreased slightly for villas but increased for townhouses. Price growth was highest in decentralised districts like Ha Dong.
- New supply increased significantly in Q1 2016 with over 4,400 new units launched, located primarily in Ha Dong, Tu Liem, and West Lake districts. Abundant new launches are expected in coming quarters as well.
The document contains news clippings from various media sources related to business, the economy, and government policies in India. Key highlights include:
- India is now among the top 10 largest members of the IMF after historic reforms that increase emerging markets' influence.
- India's growth is seen as more vulnerable to external risks like US rate hikes and China's slowdown.
- GDP growth for 2014-15 was revised downward slightly to 7.2% from the previous estimate of 7.3%.
- RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said there is a need for better methodology to compute GDP growth numbers.
Marico reported a 10% sales growth led by 3% volume growth for Q3FY14, beating estimates. However, margins were not comparable to last year due to a change in depreciation method. While profit grew 31% due to cost rationalization, slower volume growth is expected to continue in the near term due to a weak demand environment. The company maintained its market share but volume growth of key brands like Parachute declined. Margins improved to 18.7% due to cost control. However, the report downgrades the stock to "Neutral" given expectations of ongoing challenges in the demand environment and slower volume growth over the next 1-2 quarters.
Shree Cement very good strategy for capacity expansion. We are positive to buy stocks with Target Price Rs.4791. Also why positive outlook in sector 2014 and earning guidance for FY15E on IT industry
India Equity Analytics highlights the JLR volume update which came in November 2013 with annual increase by 25%. The JLR includes 6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover.
India Equity Analytics highlights the JLR volume update which came in November 2013 with annual increase by 25%. The JLR includes 6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover.
This summary provides the key details from the document in 3 sentences:
The document is a weekly media update from Balmer Lawrie that includes news about the company, other PSUs, and related business sectors. It mentions that Balmer Lawrie's CMD aims to double revenues by 2021 by leveraging traditional areas of expertise, and that 64 central PSUs showed capital erosion of Rs. 74,000 crore according to a CAG report. The update also covers various news stories about the Indian economy, including GDP growth forecasts and figures on the core sectors and services industry.
The document provides an overview of the Indian real estate sector in the first half of 2016. It notes that real estate is gradually strengthening as an investment market with regulatory reforms adding credibility. Key initiatives like 'Housing for All' and 'Smart Cities' have revived the market. The Real Estate Regulatory Act and Goods and Services Tax are expected to bring further transparency. Foreign investment in real estate reached $40 billion for 2015-16, up 29% from the previous year, indicating improved ease of business. Overall the sector is poised for further growth driven by expanding demand.
- India remained the world's fastest growing major economy in 2018 despite volatility, with GDP growth of 8.2% in the first quarter and 7.1% in the second quarter. However, growth is projected to slow to 7.2% for the full fiscal year.
- The growth of India's core infrastructure sectors slowed to a 16-month low of 3.5% in November 2018 due to weaker output in cement, electricity, and coal.
- The government raised a record Rs. 77,417 crore from the sale of stakes in public sector undertakings in 2018 and plans to privatize Air India in 2019 to meet its disinvestment target. However, it may fall short of its Rs
Hindustan Zinc’s (HZL) Q3FY14 stood at Rs. 3450.1 crore higher by 8.6% YoY. We reaffirm our positive stance on HZL and assign a BUY rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 148
- The Indian equity market ended at fresh record highs as institutional investors bought stocks on hopes that the Finance Minister would announce economic reforms. Shares of Adani Group companies rose up to 10%.
- Bajaj Auto's auto sales in June stood at 3.05 lakh units compared to 2.95 lakh units last year. Coal India rose 2.05% after declaring production and offtake data for June.
- Asian stock markets were mostly higher after a positive close on Wall Street while European stocks were mixed as markets awaited an ECB policy meeting and US employment data.
The document discusses the taxation rules for capital gains from investments in mutual funds in India. It explains that capital gains are the profits made from selling mutual fund units at a higher price than what was paid. It then outlines the key differences in how short-term and long-term capital gains are taxed for equity funds and debt funds. For equity funds, long-term capital gains over 12 months are tax-free, while short-term gains under 12 months are taxed at 15%. For debt funds, long-term gains over 36 months are taxed at 20% with indexation, and short-term gains are taxed at the individual's income tax slab rate.
Auto Data Update_December and Year Ending 2016Jeet Ghosh
- Auto sales in India declined significantly in December 2016, with overall sales dropping 19% year-over-year due to the impact of demonetization. Two-wheelers, passenger cars, and commercial vehicles all saw declines of 15-30%.
- Most major automakers like Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, and Ashok Leyland reported year-over-year sales decreases in December. Eicher Motors was an exception with 43% sales growth.
- For the full year of 2016, auto sales were mixed with double-digit growth in the first half but declines in the last two months due to demonetization, resulting in an overall 18% sales drop in December 2016 versus the previous year.
CII - 85th Business Outlook Survey October- December 2013BFSICM
Value of
Production
(Oct - Dec)
Inventories
(July - Sep)
Inventories
(Oct - Dec)
Sales
(July - Sep)
Sales
(Oct - Dec)
1) The CII Business Confidence Index increased sharply to 54.9 in Q3 FY14 from 45.7 in the previous quarter, indicating improved investor sentiment.
2) Majority of respondents expect GDP growth in FY14 to be 4.5-5.0% and inflation to be above 7%. Most also expect the fiscal deficit to be 4.5-5.0% and current account deficit to be 3.5-
This document provides a weekly media update from Balmer Lawrie, including news related to the company, PSEs, and industries relevant to Balmer Lawrie's business. Key articles summarize reports on the biolubricants market size and growth, Seychelles tourism events that recognized Balmer Lawrie, forecasts for India's GDP growth in 2016-17, updates on manufacturing and services sector growth, and discussions on India's proposed GST structure and rates. The document also includes brief snippets on other topics like business confidence, credit availability, global business optimism rankings, and the role of the private sector in energy security.
This document summarizes the key developments in the Indian real estate market in Q2 2015. It notes that real estate is experiencing renewed investor confidence with most major markets seeing brisk activity. The CIRIL network report covers trends in 8 major Indian real estate markets for the period of April to June 2015. CIRIL now has offices in 16 locations across India covering 280+ locations to provide real estate consulting services. Overall the real estate market is stable with commercial sectors seeing upward trends, though policy benefits have yet to fully impact returns on investment.
HVS - 2015 - Hotels in India Trends & OpportunitiesHemangi Bhandari
This document is the 2015 edition of the HVS Hotels in India Trends & Opportunities report. It provides an overview of key trends in the Indian hotel industry and economy in 2014/15. Hotel survey participation reached a record high of 872 hotels and 1.08 million rooms. GDP growth was estimated at 7.4% for 2014/15, with the services sector growing at 10.6%. The travel and tourism industry contributed $7.6 billion (6.7%) to India's GDP in 2014 and is projected to contribute $16.6 billion (7.6%) by 2025. Foreign tourist arrivals grew by 7.1% in 2014.
- Rupee depreciation does not always lead to higher export growth, according to the Engineering Export Promotion Council of India (EEPC). While the rupee depreciated more in July compared to June, export growth was lower in July at 9.37% versus 14.17% in June.
- Manufacturing sector growth slowed in August according to a private survey, with the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI falling from 52.3 in July to a 3-month low of 51.7 in August, indicating a loss of momentum.
- Services activity in India also expanded at a slower pace in August compared to July, with the Nikkei/IHS Markit Services PMI declining
The document provides a summary of news related to the Indian economy, public sector enterprises (PSEs), and Balmer Lawrie. Key points include:
- The Indian economy is forecast to grow at 7.5% in the next fiscal year, benefiting from lower oil prices.
- China's overcapacity in heavy industries like steel and cement is damaging the global economy.
- The Indian rupee hit a 30-month low and may depreciate further against the US dollar by the end of the year.
- The Indian government plans to classify "weak" PSEs and closely monitor them to prevent losses and turn them profitable before any stake sales.
- Indian merchandise exports
The document summarizes the Union Budget 2021-22 presented by the Government of India, noting that while there was no large fiscal stimulus, the absence of tax hikes and better fiscal projections provided comfort to markets. Key highlights of the budget included increased allocations to healthcare and infrastructure, as well as several long-term structural reforms that are expected to boost medium-term growth. Overall, the budget was seen as progressive and expected to provide impetus to capex-driven sectors over the next few years.
Real Estate Facilities Management | Project Services | Vestianvallispvm
Vestian is an end-to-end service provider in the Commercial Real Estate space providing investment & consultancy services, transaction advisory, project services and real estate facility management services
https://www.vestian.com/
The document provides an overview of the real estate sector in India. Some key points:
- The size of India's real estate market is expected to grow from $126 billion in 2015 to $853 billion by 2028, representing a CAGR of 15.85%.
- Rapid urbanization, growing income levels, and a large young population are driving demand for residential and commercial real estate across major cities.
- The government has introduced initiatives like the Housing for All scheme and increased FDI limits to boost investment and development in the sector.
- Segments like residential, retail, and commercial real estate are expected to see strong growth, with demand for office and retail space centered in cities like Delhi, Bengaluru
- The Hanoi residential market experienced a decline in sales transactions in Q1 2016, down 34% quarter-over-quarter. However, demand remained strong for high-end and mid-end properties.
- Average primary prices were stable, while secondary prices decreased slightly for villas but increased for townhouses. Price growth was highest in decentralised districts like Ha Dong.
- New supply increased significantly in Q1 2016 with over 4,400 new units launched, located primarily in Ha Dong, Tu Liem, and West Lake districts. Abundant new launches are expected in coming quarters as well.
The document contains news clippings from various media sources related to business, the economy, and government policies in India. Key highlights include:
- India is now among the top 10 largest members of the IMF after historic reforms that increase emerging markets' influence.
- India's growth is seen as more vulnerable to external risks like US rate hikes and China's slowdown.
- GDP growth for 2014-15 was revised downward slightly to 7.2% from the previous estimate of 7.3%.
- RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said there is a need for better methodology to compute GDP growth numbers.
Marico reported a 10% sales growth led by 3% volume growth for Q3FY14, beating estimates. However, margins were not comparable to last year due to a change in depreciation method. While profit grew 31% due to cost rationalization, slower volume growth is expected to continue in the near term due to a weak demand environment. The company maintained its market share but volume growth of key brands like Parachute declined. Margins improved to 18.7% due to cost control. However, the report downgrades the stock to "Neutral" given expectations of ongoing challenges in the demand environment and slower volume growth over the next 1-2 quarters.
Shree Cement very good strategy for capacity expansion. We are positive to buy stocks with Target Price Rs.4791. Also why positive outlook in sector 2014 and earning guidance for FY15E on IT industry
India Equity Analytics highlights the JLR volume update which came in November 2013 with annual increase by 25%. The JLR includes 6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover.
India Equity Analytics highlights the JLR volume update which came in November 2013 with annual increase by 25%. The JLR includes 6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover.
Tata Motors stock at its CMP of Rs 364 is trading at 7.34 x of one year forward FY14E EPS of Rs50.The robust 3QFY14 results, Strong cash flows by JLR and better demand outlook, Narnolia Securities limited Maintain BUY for the stock with Target Price Rs 425
This document analyzes the financial performance of Bajaj Auto, an Indian automobile manufacturer, over multiple years. It examines various financial ratios related to profitability, liquidity, leverage and cash flows. Key findings include Bajaj Auto's receivables management being strong for an Indian manufacturing firm, with most debt collected within six months. The analysis concludes that Bajaj Auto has effectively managed the impacts of recession and maintains a strong debtor collection system and growing turnover.
Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of Escorts Ltd in current level with Revised price target of Rs. 175. For more information about stock market tips, contact here http://www.narnolia.com/index.php/contact-us/
Narnolia Securities Limited expect that the KPIT Tech company would report better earnings with margin ramp up and signing of larger deals in next couple of quarters. Now, we upgrade our view on the stock from “Neutral” to “Buy” with a price target of Rs 185. At a CMP of Rs 160, stock trades at 9.5x FY15E EPS.
In this week seen stability in Stock Markets but Sharp devaluation in Thai Baht has brought a contagion effecting currency of all emerging markets and sharp fall in equity market.
This document initiates Bajaj Auto Ltd. as a buy recommendation with a target price of Rs. 1825, representing an upside of 19.45% over 12 months. It expects Bajaj Auto to grow faster than the two-wheeler industry due to strong focus on core segments, potential growth in international markets, and favorable monsoon forecasts. Valuation metrics indicate the stock is trading at 12.44x and 11.19x its estimated earnings for FY13E & FY14E, below its target price based on a DCF valuation.
Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of UltraTech Cement Ltd, DB Corp and Infosys with target price of Rs 1846,Rs 340 and Rs 400 to Rs 440 respectively
Narnolia Securities Limited initiates the dealing of pipeline with Persistent System focusing on the increase of the share of IP-led revenues in its portfolio. Looking at the revenue growth, we upgrade the stock and expect for better outcome.
Considering management’s aggressive expansion in production capacity and marketing network, Narnolia Securities Limited believe company can deliver good growth in coming years. Further, we expect the company to benefit immensely from the subdued steel prices currently. Narnolia Securities Limited expect the benefit to flow in for the next coming quarters as well. We recommend a "Buy" rating on stock with price target of Rs. 105
Ashok Leyland Limited is an India-based automotive company engaged in commercial vehicles and components. It offers a range of commercial vehicles including buses, trucks, light commercial vehicles, and defense vehicles. The company reported net sales of Rs. 13,562.18 crore and net profit of Rs. 334.81 crore for the financial year ending March 2015. Analysts expect net sales and profit to grow at a CAGR of 27.16% and 253.79% respectively over 2014-2017. The stock is recommended as a buy with a target price of Rs. 96 per share for medium to long term investment.
Ashok Leyland Fundamental Report by swastika Investmartkailash soni
Ashok Leyland Limited is an India-based manufacturer of commercial vehicles and related components. It offers a range of products including buses, trucks, light commercial vehicles, and defense vehicles. The company reported net sales of Rs. 13,562.18 crore and a net profit of Rs. 334.81 crore for the fiscal year ending March 2015. Analysts expect sales and profits to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 27.16% and 253.79% respectively over the next few years. The stock is recommended as a buy with a target price of Rs. 96 per share for medium to long term investment.
CMC has recent healthy demand environment across the IT space, Narnolia Securities Limited positive for the "BUY" view on the stock and we revise our target price from Rs1490 to Rs1690.
TCS reported inline quarterly results with revenues growing 1.5% sequentially led by volume growth of 1.8%. The company maintained its guidance of 18% revenue growth in dollar terms for FY14. Margins were stable at 31.4% for EBITDA and 29.8% for EBIT, in line with management's expectations of 26-28% margins. The analyst maintains a 'Buy' rating and increases the target price to Rs. 2510 citing strong fundamentals and robust demand environment.
Mahindra Report : Analysis of Mahindra & Mahindra ScorpioAnand Tomar
Analysis of Mahindra as a part of my final 1st semester project report of my PGDM course.
Analysis is on following topics : Sector, Company,, Product, Services, Marketing Strategies, Financial Analysis ,Human Resource Management of Mahindra.
Narnolia Securities Limited recommend on Dabur India Ltd “Buy” view on the stock with a target price of Rs206 as well as CAN FIN HOME stock with price target of Rs.220. Neutral view on DB CORP Share
HCL tech’s decent level of utilization, focused on cost control andutilization of new market opportunities through vendor’s consolidation would provide a new shape to the company in near future. Narnolia Securities Limited retain BUY onthe stockand revised our target price from Rs 1560 to Rs 1650.
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The Indian equity markets ended the week on a mixed note, with the Sensex declining 0.89% while the Nifty closed 0.80% lower. Several companies such as Everest Industries, Emami, Gati, Visaka Industries, Equitas Holdings and Shoppers Stop have their concall scheduled for today. The markets will continue to watch out for developments around the French elections and movement in US bond yields.
- Indian equity indices gave sharp gains, with the Nifty closing at 9,407.30, up 0.97% led by gains in FMCG, auto and pharmaceutical stocks. Midcap and smallcap indices underperformed.
- Tea production in India fell 21% in March due to dry weather affecting major producing state Assam.
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1. HUDCO is a wholly-owned Indian government company with over 46 years of experience providing loans for housing and urban infrastructure projects.
2. The company's loan book has been growing at a CAGR of 7.5% over the last 4 years, and it is expected to benefit from initiatives like the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna aimed at increasing housing.
3. HUDCO is attractively priced at 1.4 times its book value, with a return on equity of 7.6%. The high capital adequacy ratio of 63.9% eliminates the risk of equity dilution in the near term.
INGVYSYA BANK: "BUY" 28th Mar 2014
- INGVYSYA Bank has not participated in recent market rally despite strong liability franchise and stable asset quality due to political uncertainty in Andhra Pradesh.
- Business is now normalizing as both the new states of Telangana and Seemandhra are witnessing improving economic activity.
- The stock is available at an attractive valuation of Rs. 680 per share, which implies a price to book value of 1.8 times for FY14.
Narnolia Securities Limited see Coal India at a attractive valuation to go long from the current dips. So we stick to our previous estimates with revised price premium and recommend Maintain Buy CIL at price dips with a revised target price of Rs.318/-. Which is ~13% upside from the current level.
Narnolia Securities Limited have raised our target price largely due to two factors –(1) margin and return ratio likely to improve from April quarter as permanagement and (2) price would settle at 3.2 times of FY14E book due to showing some positive upturn in economy and boost up of market sentiment. Narnolia Securities Limited recommend buy stock of Indusind bank price target of Rs.540
Jindal Steel & Power is undergoing $9 billion in steel and power expansion projects backed by resource availability and cash flows. Profitability depends on iron ore and coal prices, which are improving. The stock trades at 1.1x FY14 P/B. The analyst initiates coverage with a neutral rating and target price of Rs. 285, citing improving steel business fundamentals but challenging near-term profitability.
Narnolia Securities Limited cover Persistent System as one of the few companies in the tier-II with potential to grow revenue at a range of 18-20%. Considering the company’s premium valuation, we advice “Book Profit” on the stock. At a CMP of Rs 1059, stock trades at 13.4x FY15E earnings. Our view could be change with management guidance, higher currency flactuations and post earnings of coming quarter
1) TCS management commented on its Q4 FY2014 earnings call that revenue growth will be lower than the previous quarter due to weak seasonality, and margins will decline 40-50 bps due to currency movements and higher investments.
2) However, the outlook for FY2015 is positive as management expects robust demand and healthy growth across markets except India.
3) While Q4 growth may be lower than expected, TCS' strong fundamentals including a healthy deal pipeline and focus on emerging technologies support maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of Rs. 2510 per share.
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Narnolia Securities Limited are positive to buy stock of Tata Steel Ltd, V-Guard Industries Ltd and Infosys with target prize Rs.401, Rs.525, Rs 3760 respectively. Also Book profit on Axis bank Stock
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Narnolia Securities Limited initiated Swaraj Engines Ltd stock CMP of INR 61, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of Rs. 54.20 by 12.0x and FY15E EPS of Rs. 61.7 We advice to book profit on the stock and BUY rating to the stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD with a target price of Rs. 148
Escorts reported strong tractor volume growth in February 2014, with domestic sales up 6.8% YoY to 4,581 tractors. The company remains positive on growth prospects in FY2014 and beyond, expecting demand to improve with economic recovery. While cautious on the construction equipment segment, analysts revised estimates and rating on Escorts from "Reduce" to "Buy" with a revised target price of Rs. 175. The positive tractor volume performance in CY2013 and expected further demand growth support maintaining a positive view on the stock.
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Cryptocurrency, a digital or virtual form of currency that uses cryptography for security, has revolutionized the financial landscape. Originating with Bitcoin's inception in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto, cryptocurrencies have grown from niche curiosities to mainstream financial instruments, reshaping how we think about money, transactions, and the global economy.
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India's auto mobile 2 W and 3W 9MFY14 sales Analysis | India Equity Analytics
1. IEA-Equity
Strategy
India Equity Analytics
29th Jan, 2014
Daily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities
SECTOR ANALYSIS :2 W and 3W 9MFY14 SALES
Edition : 194
29th Jan 2014
India's auto mobile sales continued to remain on sluggish trajectory as most of the companies reported a decline in sales number due to
slowdown in economic activity and increasing fuel prices. However, two-wheeler segments continued to grow at a healthy rate, led by strong
rural demand ........................................... ( Page : 2-3)
SHREE CEMENT :
"BUY"
28th Jan 2014
Shree Cement Ltd has reported a 47% fall in its December quarter net profit on lower sales as well as 5% degrowth in realization. PAT impacted
due to lower other income (down by 70% YOY), Depriciation burden on EBIDTA (Depriciation increased 41% YOY). Volumes grew by18 %
to3.8mn ton from 3.3mn ton QOQ. After a good monsoon and election ahead management expecting a good performance from shree cement
for the H2FY14, thus at CMP Rs.4460/- we are bull at a target Price Rs.4791/- . ............................................ ( Page :4-6)
ALLAHABAD BANK :
"BUY"
28th Jan 2014
Allahabad reported net profit growth of 4.7% YoY to Rs.325 cr largely due muted NII growth and deteriorated asset quality. Bank’s operating
expenses were stable in absoluter term but as cost income ratio increased drastically on account of lower revenue growth. Asset quality has
deteriorated sequentially. Due to lower corporate demand, loan growth remain muted and bank’s lower its total business (Loan + Deposits)
guidance to Rs.340,000 cr from earlier of Rs.360,000 cr. We value bank at Rs.92/share which is 0.4 times of FY14E’s book value. We are not
impression with bank’s fundament but current price provide 15% upside from our target price. ........................................................... ( Page : 711)
Persistent System: "Persistently innovating.."
"BUY"
28th Jan 2014
Delivered inline set of numbers but better on all aspects than its peers did: For 3QFY14, Persistent System’s sales was almost flat (QoQ) in INR
term, while grew 2.2% (QoQ) in USD term impacted by seasonality and furloughs impacts. Considering the company’s ability to achieve scale and
growth, we upgrade our target price from Rs 960 to Rs 1070 with “BUY” view on the stock. ................................................................ ( Page : 12
- 14)
UCO BANK :
"BUY"
27th Jan 2014
UCO bank reported net profit growth of 207% YoY largely due to robust growth in NII along with higher than industry average loan growth.
Bank’s asset quality improved sequentially despite of challenging macro environment. However bank’s CASA growth has declined marginally in
sequential basis but still at comfortable level. UCO Bank’s operating as well as financials metrics has been improving continuously. We value
bank at Rs.84/share which is 0.5 times of one year forward book and 3.5 times FY14E’s earning.
............................................................ (
Page :15-19)
KPIT Tech: "On billion dollar journey"
"NEUTRAL"
27th Jan 2014
KPIT Technologies Ltd revealed its 3QFY14 earnings with below than expectation, sales declined by 3.5%(QoQ) in INR term and 2.3%(QoQ) in
USD term due to the delay in project kick-off and additional loss of billing days in Q3FY14. Considering delay executions of some projects for
next 2 quarters and ongoing change in organization structure, we have a “Neutral” view on the stock. .............................................................. (
Page :20-22)
Larsen & Toubro Ltd: "On Track of Revival………"
"NEUTRAL"
24th Jan 2014
As per the management, the quarterly margins differ for every quarter as the project completion cycle is different and hence it is difficult to
capture the EBITDA movement every quarter. Though we agree with the management’s comment, we still believe that there would be some
amount of pressure on the margins on a yearly basis due to risks related to competition, inflation, adverse mix and a slowdown. As regards the
results we are of the opinion that, despite the gloomy scenario the results have been good. Consistent order inflow is a major positive factor.
We expect the sector to witness revival in coming quarters, whereas we see a near term earnings growth muted and look for a better entry
point. Currently we have a neutral view on a stock ......................... ( Page :23)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
2. SECTOR ANALYSIS :2 W and 3W 9MFY14 SALES
Industry Overview:
India's automobile sales continued to remain on sluggish trajectory as most of the companies reported a decline in sales number due to
slowdown in economic activity and increasing fuel prices. However, two-wheeler segments continued to grow at a healthy rate, led by
strong rural demand.The contribution of various segment for the 9MFY14 automobiles sales stands as under :
The graph clearly indicates that of total automobiles sold for 9MFY14
the contribution of two wheelers stand at maximum. This trend shows
that slow down in consumer discretionary expenses. The differential
pricing makes people to spend more towards two wheelers more over
people look for option which gives them more mileage for every unit of
fuel. As stated earlier there is growth in rural economy and trend is
clearly visible from the sales made by two wheelers in total
automobiles sold for the period.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Two Wheelers
For December 2013, overall auto industry volumes were led by the two-wheeler industry (4% YoY growth). Two Wheelers segment
contribution has increased to 80.2% of the total auto volume, during first nine months of FY14 from 77% in FY 13.The cumulative volume
for 9MFY14 for 2 Wheelers stands at 12489192 units up 5.3% YoY.
Better monsoon benefitted rural demand, while urban sales remained lackluster, which was higher than offsetting the rural growth. With
the festive season ending early in November 2013 this year, the positive momentum seen October 2013 has cooled off with retail sales
largely lagging wholesales. The two-wheeler segment has again managed to keep its head over water even as all other segments have
shown an annual decline with last years' festive season ending later.
Sub Segment Motorcycle
The analysis of previous year’s sales indicates that the three major players viz Heromoto Corp, Bajaj-Auto,TVS Motors have shown
declining performance along with market share loss to both HMSI and Yamaha. The strong rural demand helps to boost the sales of
commuter sub segment (100-125 CC) of motorcycles. The following table shows yearly performance of some of major motorcycle
players
Companies
Hero MotoCorp
Bajaj Auto
TVS Motors
HMSI
Yamaha
FY12-13
46%
31%
6%
11%
4%
FY11-12
48%
32%
7%
7%
4%
FY10-11
48%
32%
8%
7%
3%
Companies
Hero MotoCorp
Bajaj Auto
TVS Motors
HMSI
Yamaha
FY12-13
5499245
3757094
749806
1291688
437998
FY11-12
5779621
3834405
843338
864183
484891
FY10-11
5040971
3387043
836831
748488
366770
Year Wise Motorcycle Market Share
Year Wise Motorcycle Sales
Sub Segment Scooter
The scooter sub segment grew well led by new launches from Honda (New Activa), Hero (Maestro), TVS (Jupiter) and Suzuki (Swish),
the scooter segment grew at a faster clip of 19% YoY for Apr-Dec'13 period against a flattish (3%) growth in the motorcycle segment.
The faster volume growth of the scooter segment led to a 220bps improvement to 21.2% in its share of the two-wheeler market during
this period. The main drivers for this growth are (a) growing acceptability of gearless scooters, particularly by women, (b) rising
urbanization and increasing proportion of working women and (d) new launches.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
2
3. SECTOR ANALYSIS :2 W and 3W 9MFY14 SALES
Continued…
Scooter sales growth has taken-off since FY10 and has consistently
outgrown that for the motorcycle segment. An increasing population of
working women, mainly in urban markets, has led to rapid sales-volume
growth in this segment. On a longer term perspective, scooter industry
volumes are expected to grow at ~20% CAGR over FY14-20, twice the
growth rate for motorcycles. Overall two wheeler industry volumes are likely
to grow at 12% CAGR during this period. The shares of scooters are
expected to increase to 37% by 2020, with annual sales of 10.7m units
(equal to the current market size of the domestic motorcycle industry).
Three Wheelers
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
In three wheelers universe for the December 2013 Industry domestic volumes were down 21% to 35249 units led by 27% drop in the
passenger segment. There was a 7% rise in the goods carrier segment in Dec 13. Exports registered 11% rise to 33,044 units. This segment
for 9MFY14 registered domestic sales was 364669 units down by 9 % YoY for the same period last fiscal. The exports have done fairly well
for the period with 11 % growth YoY to 33044 units. The three wheeler segment remains flat on YoY to 626749 units for 9MFY14. The three
Wheelers demand largely driven by exports, while domestic sales remained weak.
Bajaj-Auto with 55% market share is the market leader in 3 Wheeler sales in the country. Q1FY14 Domestic 3W sales accounted for 38% of
the company's total 3W sales. Of the total 3W sales, 15-20% came from new permits, while replacement accounts for the rest. On the
domestic 3W front, the outlook remains positive with 20000 permits opening up in Hyderabad (5k already utilized in June-July 2013) and
3000 permits opening up in Maharashtra in Sept-Oct 2013. Also, its plan to launch a renewed range of 3W (RE Compact) promises to drive
replacement demand.
For TVS, 3W sales stood up by 36.8% YoY to 6,137 units with most of it coming from the overseas markets; 3W share to total sales forms
3.8% in December and 3.9% YTD, 150bp higher YoY. The Company is expected to benefit from this as 3W forms a high margin product.On
the other hand, Mahindra & Mahindra's 3w sales were up 7.6% to 5.6k units. Sales were down 5% on a MoM basis.
The YTD performance of Three wheelers for FY14 is tabulated as under:
Month
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
YTD
Future Outlook
9MFY14 Sales (Volume)
69562
61089
71889
66335
67141
80549
76874
65017
68293
626749
9MFY13 Sales (Volume)
61772
55184
54274
65352
72122
78097
86072
80325
74596
627794
Change %
12.6%
10.7%
32.5%
1.5%
-6.9%
3.1%
-10.7%
-19.1%
-8.4%
-0.2%
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Given its low ticket size and high rural share, this segment of the auto industry is sure to pick up momentum in the coming months. With
urbanization, rise in women riders, higher fuel efficiency and improving per capita income, the penetration of scooters will continue to
increase and at a pace faster than motorcycles. 2/3 wheeler companies which are the direct beneficiaries of the rural consumption are
expected to remain strong given the buoyant prices for food items, strong monsoon and additional benefits of government doll outs and
largesse.
Conclusion
While the macro-economic environment remains challenging, OEMs have pinned hopes on the bevy of launches that might trigger a
response from customers. Also, the recent cut in the price of petrol might just prove to be a good thing for companies. Additionally, better
crop realization due to a good monsoon and hike in MSP is expected to boost the rural income leading to a sales recovery. Over the long
term, easing macro headwinds in terms of lower interest rates and higher economic growth would be the key driver for volume growth and
profitability.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
3
4. SHREE CEMENT.
Result Update
Buy
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
4325
4791
4791
11%
0%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
500387
SHREECEM
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
Nifty
5210/3413
15502
3875
6136
Stock Performance-%
1M
0.1
0.0
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1yr
-4.8
-8.0
YTD
-5.1
-9.2
Share Holding Pattern-%
2QFY14
64.8
8.2
5.9
21.2
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
1QFY14 4QFY13
64.8
64.8
8.2
8.1
5.7
5.9
21.3
21.2
"BUY"
28th Jan' 14
Volumes grew by18 % but prices came down by 5%. So the EBITDA margin has hit
badly:Shree Cement Ltd has reported a 47% fall in its December quarter net profit on
lower sales as well as 5% degrowth in realization. PAT impacted due to lower other
income (down by 70% YOY), Depriciation burden on EBIDTA (Depriciation increased 41%
YOY). Volumes grew by18 % to3.8mn ton from 3.3mn ton QOQ. Net profit decreased by
47% yoy from Rs.217.44 crore (Rs.62.42 per share) in 2Q13 to Rs.115.49 crore (Rs.33.15
per share) in 2Q14.Total net income from operations stood at Rs.1318.13 crore in 2Q14,
a 6% fall yoy from Rs.1401.23 crore in 2Q13.Other income decreased from Rs.30.2 crore
in 2Q13 to Rs.9.9 crore in 2Q14.In the mean time company declares a Rs.10 as interim
dividend/share.
Power Segment: Realization Down By 15% : For power generation the net realization has
come down from Rs 383 to Rs 334 compared to last year same quarter and in the first
quarter it was still better at Rs 397.So the power realization is down by 13 percent and
hence sales also have come down by 35 percent to Rs.290 Cr. At the same time 14%
increase in its profitability from power segment to Rs112.56 crore while its cement
segment reported 79% fall in its profitability to Rs37.65 crore.
MAT Credit support the buttom line :
During the Quarter Company got MAT (minimum alternative tax) credit entitlement of
Rs9.25 crore and deferred tax of Rs1.79 crore. This reduced total tax payable amount to
Rs15.27 crore from Rs26.31 crore.
Company’s EBIDTA/ton decreased 6% to Rs.712 (vs Rs.756 in previous quarter), at the
same time the Expenditure also decreased 9% to Rs.2757 (vs Rs.3025 in Q1).Hence we
believe that company will outperform among its peers ,once Realization get improve.The
exceptional weakness is there in the cement prices. Volumes have grown by about 18
percent but the prices have come down by 5 percent and naturally the cost increase is
there. So the EBITDA margin has been badly hit .
1 yr Forward P/B
6000
PRICE
2x
3x
4x
5000
1.5x
2.5x
3.5x
4.5x
4000
3000
2000
1000
Apr-13
Nov-13
Sep-12
Jul-11
Feb-12
Dec-10
Oct-09
May-10
Mar-09
Jan-08
Aug-08
Jun-07
Apr-06
Nov-06
Sep-05
Jul-04
Feb-05
Dec-03
Oct-02
May-03
Mar-02
0
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
On the expansion front :
The 2m-ton Line-IX clinker unit at Ras, Rajasthan, was commissioned in Jun’13.Line X of
similar capacity along with 25MW of WHRS (at the same location) is expected by
Jun’14.Two grinding units of 2m tons each, at Ras and in Bihar,are being constructed and
expected by Jun’14.We expect Shree to be a 21.5m-tpa company by Jun’15.It plans to
foray into high demanding eastern.Total capex for these expansion is Rs.3,000 crore
which is spread over next 2 years.
Financials :
Q2FY14
Y-o-Y %
Q-o-Q %
Q2FY13
Q1FY14
Revenue
1318
-7.7
5.6
1428
1248
EBIDTA
271
-24.7
8.8
360
249
Net Profit
115
-46.9
-32.9
217
172
EPS
33
-46.9
-32.9
62
49
EBIDTA%
21
-18.4
3.1
25
20
NPM%
9
-42.5
-36.5
15
14
(In Crs)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
4
5. SHREE CEMENT.
Management Corner : From mid-January there is a big change in demand scenario
because of the Indian calendar, the prices have improved, the demand has also
improved and they think that January to June some impact of elections will be there pre-election demand and other things. So margins should be better than 21 percent.
1500
60
Revenue
1450
50
Growth
1400
40
1350
Outlook :
From the view company Operations in the high utilisation North and Central markets,
capacity expansions underway, low gearing and strong RoE are fundamental positives.
We believe although, near term challenges in terms of a slowdown in demand for
cement would remain, strong balance sheet and better efficiency in terms of cost
remains a key positive for this company to overcome challenges.Company Management
is bull for the rest two quarters of FY2014 as according to them demand has already
buttom out.We are positive on the stock as it always beats its peers group with lower
operational cost.Shree cement follows a multi brand strategy and sells cement under
the highly recognized brands of Shree Ultra, Bangur and Rockstrong which together
enjoy the largest market share in high value markets of Rajasthan, Delhi and Haryana.
After a good monsoon and election ahead we are expecting a good performance from
shree cement for the H2FY14, thus at CMP Rs.4460/- we are bull at a target Price
Rs.4791/-
30
1300
20
1250
10
1200
0
1150
-10
1100
-20
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
EBIDTA
450
400
INTEREST SERVICE COVERAGE
RATIO
12
10
350
Company Description : Shree Cement (SCL) is a cement producer operating in the two
segments cement and power. As of June 30, 2012, the company had a cement capacity
of 13.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) and power capacity of 560 MW. The
company's waste heat recovery power plants have a total capacity of 46 MW. The
company’s brands include Shree Ultra,Bangur Cement and Rockstrong Cement. It has
manufacturing facilities at Beawar and Ras in Ajmer and Pali district and grinding units
at Khushkhera, Suratgarh and Jaipur, respectively, in Rajasthan and Roorkee in
Uttarakhand.
P/L PERFORMANCE
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14E
Net Revenue from Operation
3454
5898
5590
5798
Other Income
203
163
188
217
Total Income
3656
6061
5779
6015
Power and fuel
905
1500
1513
1409
Freight and forwarding
602
1006
915
1090
Expenditure
2569
4252
4029
4275
EBITDA
885
1646
1561
1523
Depriciation
676
873
436
470
Interest Cost
98
235
193
145
Net tax expense / (benefit)
-99
69
115
118
PAT
365
619
1004
1007
ROE%
20.8
23.1
26.1
21.1
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
300
8
250
6
200
150
4
100
2
50
0
0
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
NPM %
OPM %
EBITDA %
5
7. ALLAHABAD BANK
Company UPDATE
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
BUY
80
92
121
16
31.5
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
532480
ALBK
176/65
3975
8.26 LAKH
6136
Stock Performance
1M
Absolute
-14.9
Rel.to Nifty
-12.5
1yr
-55.2
-56.6
YTD
-55.2
-56.6
Share Holding Pattern-%
Current 4QFY13 3QFY1
3
Promoters
58.9
55.2
55.2
FII
8.7
8.0
8.1
DII
18.5
21.1
22.0
Others
13.9
15.6
14.7
Allahabad Bank Vs Nifty
"BUY"
28th Jan, 2014
Allahabad reported net profit growth of 4.7% YoY to Rs.325 cr largely due
muted NII growth and deteriorated asset quality. Bank’s operating expenses
were stable in absoluter term but as cost income ratio increased drastically on
account of lower revenue growth. Asset quality has deteriorated sequentially.
Due to lower corporate demand, loan growth remain muted and bank’s lower
its total business (Loan + Deposits) guidance to Rs.340,000 cr from earlier of
Rs.360,000 cr. We value bank at Rs.92/share which is 0.4 times of FY14E’s
book value. We are not impression with bank’s fundament but current price
provide 15% upside from our target price.
NII growth muted on account of lower loan growth and loan yield
Allahabad bank’s NII grew by 0.4% YoY to Rs.1336 cr versus our expectation of
Rs.1422 cr largely due to lower interest income led by lower than expected loan
growth and loan yield as well. Bank’s deposits growth was also lower than expected
but cost of deposits was almost same in previous quarter. Therefore interest income
was lower than interest expenses which cause muted NII growth. During quarter,
bank’s other income was Rs.542 cr as against Rs.341 cr in last quarter which helped
to report revenue growth of 11% YoY.
CI ratio up drastically in sequential basis but in absolute term it remain
comfortable
Cost to income ratio was higher at 46.3% versus 42.5% in previous quarter largely
due to lower revenue growth. In absolute term operating expenses increased by
2.2% QoQ and 7.3% YoY on which employee cost and other operating expenses
increased by 1% and 22% YoY respectively. With lower operating cost and high
support from other income, operating profit grew by 17.2% YoY to Rs.1008 cr.
Worsen asset quality led by macro environment
During this quarter bank’s asset quality worsen with gross NPA further deteriorated
by 14% QoQ in absolute term while as a percentage to gross advance, this ratio
stood at 5.5% versus 5% in previous quarter. Provisions had increased by 19% on
sequential basis which led net NPA deterioration to 12% QoQ. In percentage term,
net NPA to net advance stood at 4.1% versus 3.8% in previous quarter. Provision
coverage ratio (w/o technical write-off) marginally improved to 24.8% from 23.7% in
2QFY14. During this quarter, bank’s sold Rs.389 cr of non- performing assets to
asset reconstruction companies. Total outstanding restructure at the end of stood at
Rs.12624 cr which is 9.2% of net advance.
Rs, Cr
Financials
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
NII
4022
5163
4866
5426
6715
Total Income
5393
6461
6343
7745
9034
PPP
3055
3770
3385
4361
5150
Net Profit
1423
1867
1185
1290
1522
EPS
29.9
39.2
23.7
23.7
27.9
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
7
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
8. ALLAHABAD BANK
Lower business growth target due to absence of corporate loan
Allahabad Bank’s total deposits grew by 10% YoY and advance grew by 13% YoY to
Rs.1875 bn and Rs.1373 bn respectively. Muted growth in loan was on account of lower
borrowing from corporate segment whereas bank reported retail, MSME and priority
sector registered handsome growth. CASA for the quarter stood at 30.8% versus 31.2%
in previous quarter. Bank management lower its FY14’s total business guidance to
340,000 cr from Rs.360,000 cr earlier. Accordingly we lower our loan and deposits growth
to 12% and 9% from earlier of 15% each. Credit deposits ratio was stable at 73.2%.
Lower profit growth because of muted NII growth and deteriorating asset quality
Net profit of Allahabad bank’s grew by 4.7% YoY to Rs.325 cr largely due to muted NII
growth and high provision led by deteriorating asset quality. Due to lower demand from
corporate borrowing, banks reduce its business growth target by 5.5% for FY14. Asset
quality pressure would likely to persist in FY14 which would result of lower valuation
multiple. We lower our book value estimate to Rs. 229.3 from earlier of Rs.254 primarily
due to equity dilution and lower profit expectation in FY14E.
Valuation & View
Allahabad reported net profit growth of 4.7% YoY to Rs.325 cr largely due muted NII
growth and deteriorated asset quality. Bank’s operating expenses were stable in
absoluter term but as cost income ratio increased drastically on account of lower revenue
growth. Asset quality has deteriorated sequentially. Due to lower corporate demand, loan
growth remain muted and bank’s lower its total business (Loan + Deposits) guidance to
Rs.340,000 cr from earlier of Rs.360,000 cr. We value bank at Rs.92/share which is 0.4
times of FY14E’s book value. We are not impression with bank’s fundament but current
price provide 15% upside from our target price.
Source:Company/Eastwind
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
8
9. ALLAHABAD BANK
Fundamant Through Graph
NII growth muted on account of lower loan
growth and loan yield
With the support from other income and
lower operating expenses, PP grew by 17.2%
YoY
Lower profit growth because of muted NII
growth and deteriorating asset quality
Source: Eastwind/Company
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
9
10. ALLAHABAD BANK
Quarterly Performance (Rs Cr)
Interest/discount on advances / bills
Income on investments
Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India
Others
Total Interest Income
Others Income
Total Income
Interest Expended
NII
Other Income
Total Income
Employee
Other Expenses
Operating Expenses
PPP( Rs Cr)
Provisions
PBT
Tax
Net Profit
3QFY14
3533
1161
27
42
4762
542
5305
3427
1336
542
1878
569
301
870
1008
555
453
128
325
2QFY14
3422
1131
28
25
4607
696
5303
3298
1309
696
2005
550
301
852
1154
742
411
136
276
3QFY13
3234
1161
29
21
4445
341
4785
3114
1330
341
1671
563
247
811
860
432
428
117
311
% YoY
Balance Sheet ( Rs Cr)
Net Worth
Deposits
Loans
12410
187478
137300
12085
180396
131896
11572
170649
121555
7.2
2.7
9.9
3.9
13.0
4.1
7,512
5651
5.5
4.1
24.8
6,613
5048
5.0
3.8
23.7
3,532
2478
2.9
2.0
29.8
112.7
13.6
128.1
11.9
73.2
46.3
73.1
42.5
0.0
48.5
Asset Quality
GNPA( Rs Cr)
NPA( Rs Cr)
%GNPA
%NPA
PCR(w/o technical write-off)(%)
Operating Metrics
Credit-Deposits Ratio(%)
Cost-Income Ratio(%)
9.2
0.0
-7.9
102.9
7.1
59.2
10.9
10.0
0.4
59.2
12.4
1.0
21.7
7.3
17.2
28.3
5.9
9.2
4.7
% QoQ 3QFY14E Variation
3.2
3669
-3.7
2.6
1199
-3.2
-5.1
33
-18.5
67.8
43
-2.6
3.4
4944
-3.7
-22.1
599
-9.4
0.0
5542
-4.3
3.9
3522
-2.7
2.0
1422
-6.1
-22.1
599
-9.4
-6.3
2021
-7.1
3.4
301
89.3
0.0
558
-46.1
2.2
859
1.3
-12.6
1162
-13.3
-25.2
699
-20.6
10.1
463
-2.2
-5.9
139
-8.2
18.0
324
0.4
12409
192974
139757
6,997
5320
0.0
-2.8
-1.8
7.4
6.2
Source: Eastwind/Company
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
10
11. ALLAHABAD BANK
Financials & Assumption
Income Statement
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Interest Income
Interest Expense
NII
Change (%)
Non Interest Income
Total Income
Change (%)
Operating Expenses
Pre Provision Profits
Change (%)
Provisions
PBT
PAT
Change (%)
11015
6992
4022
51.8
1370
5393
29.4
2338
3055
19.9
1112
1943
1423
18.0
15523
10361
5163
28.3
1299
6461
19.8
2691
3770
23.4
1602
2167
1867
31.2
17436
12569
4866
-5.7
1477
6343
-1.8
2958
3385
-10.2
1865
1520
1185
-36.5
18958
13532
5426
11.5
2319
7745
22.1
3384
4361
28.8
2527
1835
1290
8.8
22529
15814
6715
23.8
2319
9034
16.6
3885
5150
18.1
2976
2174
1522
17.9
131887
24
44156
21
6918
43247
93625
31
159593
21
48668
10
9094
54283
111145
19
178742
12
54930
13
10098
58306
129490
17
194828
9
60397
10
13544
60428
145028
12
222104
14
68852
14
15440
71263
165332
14
8.8
6.2
4.9
7.1
10.5
6.8
6.1
6.8
9.8
7.7
6.7
5.2
9.7
7.5
9.2
7.1
10.0
8.0
9.5
7.1
Balance Sheet
Deposits( Rs Cr)
Change (%)
of which CASA Dep
Change (%)
Borrowings( Rs Cr)
Investments( Rs Cr)
Loans( Rs Cr)
Change (%)
Ratio
Avg. Yield on loans
Avg. Yield on Investments
Avg. Cost of Deposit
Avg. Cost of Borrowimgs
Source: Eastwind/Company
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
11
12. Persistent System.
"BUY"
28th Jan' 14
"Persistently innovating.."
Results update
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
BUY
994
1070
960
8%
11%
533179
PERSISTENT
1058/477
3974
12139
6136
Stock Performance
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1M
1.1
3.4
1yr
76.8
75.8
YTD
85.7
82.3
Share Holding Pattern-%
Current
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
38.96
18.26
18.78
24
1 year forward P/E-x
2QFY14 1QFY14
38.96
15.28
21.23
24.53
38.96
14.84
19.31
26.89
Delivered inline set of numbers but better on all aspects than its peers did :
For 3QFY14, Persistent System’s sales was almost flat (QoQ) in INR term, while grew
2.2% (QoQ) in USD term impacted by seasonality and furloughs impacts. During the
quarter, volume growth from Offshore increased by 3.8% and Onsite volume growth
was flat, sequentially. PAT grew by 5.5% (QoQ)
The management remains confident of FY14 with deal pipeline being strong and
remains focused on increasing the share of IP-led revenues in its portfolio. The
management expects to see more than 15% dollar revenue growth, more than
NASSCOM guidance of 12-14 % for FY14E.
Margin ramp up: During the quarter, Its EBITDA margin improved by 80bps to 24.1%
because of cost rationalization. PAT margin up by 70bps to 14.83%. However,
management expects to maintain margin at 24-25% for FY14E.
On segmental front: The Company’s cash cow segment Infrastructure and System,
which contributes 69% on sales, was flat than previous quarter and Telecom (18%
contribution on sales) was up by 2% sequentially. While, Life Science space (13%
contribution on sales) down marginally by 1% (QoQ).
Geography wise revenue: Because of weak seasonality and furloughs impact, North
America and APAC regions were marginally down by 1-2%(QoQ). The company’s earning
potential from US is 83% and APAC is 11%. While Europe contributes 6% of sales and has
seen tremendous set of growth at 36% (QoQ) led by a large account execution during
the quarter.
Clients Metrics: During the quarter, company added 2 clients(Total 34) under medium
category( >$1mn to $3mn) and no client addition (Total) 16 from large ( > $ 3Mn) .
Revenue contribution from top-1 client declined from 22.5% (2QFY14) to 19.8% and
contribution from top-5 and Top-10 marginally down. DSO at 63days, almost 12
quarters low.
Persistent management suggests that deal pipeline are looking strong and seeing good
activity and traction in the market across the board. Its focus on some of newer
technologies like cloud, analytics and mobility, M2M, digital transformation are
gaining a lot of traction because of pickup in demand environment. Because of actively
investment in these themes, management is very confident to see healthy growth.
View and Valuation: The company’s focus is shifting greater proportion to IP led services
and company has marquee clientele in cutting-edge technologies around cloud,
mobility, collaboration and analytics; witnessing faster growth. Considering the
company’s ability to achieve scale and growth, we upgrade our target price from Rs
960 to Rs 1070 with “BUY” view on the stock. Recently we had advised to book profit
on the stock at a target price of Rs 960. Post 3rd quarter earnings, we upgrade our EPS
for FY15E from Rs 76.9 to Rs 79.1. At a CMP of Rs 994, stock trades at 12.6x FY15E
earnings.
Financials
Rs, Crore
3QFY14
2QFY14
(QoQ)-%
3QFY13
(YoY)-%
Revenue
432.75
432.37
0.1
332.98
30.0
EBITDA
104.3
100.8
3.5
82.4
26.6
PAT
64.2
60.8
5.6
49.5
29.7
EBITDA Margin
24.1%
23.3%
80bps
24.7%
(60bps)
PAT Margin
14.8%
14.1%
70bps
14.9%
(10bps)
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
12
13. Persistent System.
Sales (INR) and Sales growth-%(QoQ)
On $term, Sales growth was up by 2.2%
(QoQ) and 0.8% on INR term,
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Segmental Revenue-%
Persistent's exposure on Infr and System has
increased to 69%, growth in Infra space
indicates more visibility of deal intake in near
future,
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Margin-%
Its EBITDA margin improved by 80bps to
24.1% because of cost rationalization.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Key facts from Concall (attended on 27th Jan,2014)
■Persistent is confident of doing more than 15% revenue growth in$ terms(FY14E).
■They expect to maintain margin at 24-25% for FY14E
■The Company’s focus on newer technologies like cloud, analytics, mobility and digital
transformation are gaining traction.
■ Expects 20-21% growth in the next year from IP led business, which in turn will help
improve margins going forward.
■ The company is optimistic to see more deals on SMACS and IP led business.
■ Services business can continue to keep the growth momentum.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
13
15. UCO BANK
Company Update
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
BUY
84
82
#####
532205
UCOBANK
86.65/46
5561
2960821
6154
Stock Performance
Absolute
Rel.to Nifty
1M
-0.7
-0.6
1yr
-5.4
-9.0
YTD
-5.4
-9.0
Share Holding Pattern-%
Current 1QFY14 4QFY1
3
Promoters
69.3
69.3
69.3
FII
4.2
3.9
3.2
DII
12.4
12.5
13.0
Others
14.2
14.3
14.6
"BUY"
27h Jan, 2014
UCO bank reported net profit growth of 207% YoY largely due to robust
growth in NII along with higher than industry average loan growth. Bank’s
asset quality improved sequentially despite of challenging macro
environment. However bank’s CASA growth has declined marginally in
sequential basis but still at comfortable level. UCO Bank’s operating as well
as financials metrics has been improving continuously. We value bank at
Rs.84/share which is 0.5 times of one year forward book and 3.5 times
FY14E’s earning.
NII growth of 33% YoY led by higher than industry loan growth and high CD
ratio
During quarter, bank reported NII growth of 33% YoY to Rs.1566 cr below of our
expectation of Rs. 1642 cr largely due to higher cost of fund than anticipated which
led by sequentially declined of low cost deposits(CASA). NII growth of 33% YoY was
much higher than its peers which have delivered result so far. Other income was
Rs.190 cr versus Rs.209 cr in 2QFY14 and Rs.190 cr in 3QFY14. With the lower
support from other income, total revenue growth was 28.5% YoY to Rs.1756 cr.
Healthy NII growth and controlled cost income ratio led operating profit growth
Operating expenses increased by 15.5% YoY in which employee cost and other
operating expenses increased by 12.7% and 21% YoY respectively. Cost income
ratio declined from 39.2% in 3QFY13 to 35.3% inn3QFY14. With the support from
healthy NII growth and lower cost income ratio, bank’s operating profit grew by 37%
YoY to Rs.1137 cr.
Stable asset quality in sequential basis despite of challenging environment
On delinquencies front, bank reported very stable asset quality in sequential basis
UCO Bank Vs Nifty
with GNPA deteriorated by 0.3% to Rs.7353 cr versus Rs.7376 cr in challenging
macro environment. In percentage term GPA improved by 25 bps to 5.2% versus
5.5% in previous quarter. Provisions in absolute term declined by 0.7% in sequential
basis which led net NPA improve to 0.3%. In percentage of gross NPA to gross
advance, it stood at 5.2% versus 5.5% in 2QFY14 while net NPA in percentage term
was improved to 3% from 3.1% in previous quarter. Provisions coverage ratio
(without technical write-off), was 46.4% as against 46.6% in previous quarter.
Rs, Cr
Financials
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
NII
3845
3902
4582
6186
6289
Total Income
4770
4868
5534
7335
7438
PPP
2695
2811
3357
4850
5132
Net Profit
907
1109
618
1585
2101
EPS
16.5
17.7
9.3
23.8
31.6
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
15
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
16. UCO BANK
Loan and deposits reported higher growth than industry average
On balance sheet growth front, bank’s advance grew by 16.5% YoY while deposits grew
by 13.4% YoY led by CASA growth of 23% YoY in absolute term. CASA in percentage of
total deposits improved to 30.5% versus 19.2% in 3QFY13. Saving deposits and current
deposits increased by 13% and 38% YoY respectively. But in sequential basis, CASA
deposits declined to 30.5% from 31.8% and 32.1% in 1QFY14. Credit deposits ratio for
quarter stood at 73.5% as against 71.6% in 3QFY14 and 71.4% in previous quarter. Total
business (Deposits +Advance) grew by 14.7% YoY to Rs.3.34 lakh Cr versus Rs.2.91
lakh Cr.
Marginal expansion of NIM on account of declined loan yield than cost of fund
NIM improved by 60 bps YoY to 3.06% from 2.42% largely due to lower cost of deposits
which was lead by low cost franchise network. Cost of deposits stood at 6.27% versus
6.92% in 3QFY14. Yield on advance (EW calculation) declined from 10.5% to 10% which
has restricted limited NIM growth.
Profit tripled on account of healthy NII growth, lower CI ratio and stable asset
quality
UCO Bank reported net profit growth of 207% YoY to Rs.315 cr as against our
expectation of Rs.338 cr largely due to robust growth in NII, lower cost income ratio,
improving asset quality which led lower provisions and high credit deposits ratio.
Valuation & View
UCO bank reported net profit growth of 207% YoY largely due to robust growth in NII
along with higher than industry average loan growth. Bank’s asset quality improved
sequentially despite of challenging macro environment. However bank’s CASA growth
has declined marginally in sequential basis but still at comfortable level. UCO Bank’s
operating as well as financials metrics has been improving continuously. We value bank
at Rs.84/share which is 0.5 times of one year forward book and 3.5 times FY14E’s
earning.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
16
17. UCO BANK
Fundamental Through Graph
NII growth of 33% YoY led by higher than
industry loan growth and high CD ratio
Healthy NII growth and controlled cost
income ratio led operating profit growth
Profit tripled on account of healthy NII
growth, lower CI ratio and stable asset
quality
Source:Eastwind/Company
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
17
18. UCO BANK
Quarterly Performance
Quarterly Result
Interest/discount on advances / bills
Income on investments
Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India
Others
Total Interest Income
Others Income
Total Income
Interest Expended
NII
Other Income
Total Income
Employee
Other Expenses
Operating Expenses
PPP( Rs Cr)
Provisions
PBT
Tax
Net Profit
3QFY14
3543
1138
29
19
4729
190
4919
3163
1566
190
1756
395
225
620
1137
812
325
10
315
2QFY14
3396
1026
8
14
4444
209
4653
2875
1569
209
1779
382
230
612
1166
759
408
7
400
3QFY13
3197
923
30
21
4171
190
4361
2994
1177
190
1367
351
186
536
831
728
103
1
102
% YoY
% QoQ
10.8
4.3
23.3
11.0
-2.7
243.2
-13.7
31.7
13.4
6.4
0.4
-9.0
12.8
5.7
5.6
10.0
33.0
-0.2
0.4
-9.0
28.5
-1.3
12.7
3.3
20.9
-2.4
15.5
1.2
36.8
-2.5
11.5
7.0
215.1
-20.3
1536.5
40.7
206.9
-21.4
Balance Sheet
Net Worth
Deposits
Total Liabilities
Advances
Total Assets
11085
192406
203491
141457
141457
10770
188779
212416
135233
212416
9399
169711
179110
121455
121455
17.9
2.9
13.4
1.9
13.6
-4.2
16.5
4.6
16.5
-33.4
7,353
4217
5.2
3.0
46.4
7,376
4228
5.5
3.1
46.6
6,711
3927
5.5
3.2
41.5
9.6
-0.3
7.4
-0.3
Asset Quality
GNPA
NPA
% GNPA
% NPA
% PCR(Without technical writeoff)
Source: Eastwind/Company
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
18
19. UCO BANK
Income Statement
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Interest Income
Interest Expense
NII
Change (%)
Non Interest Income
Total Income
Change (%)
Operating Expenses
Pre Provision Profits
Change (%)
Provisions
PBT
PAT
Change (%)
11371
7526
3845
65.4
925
4770
45.0
2075
2695
58.0
1788
907
907
-10.4
14632
10730
3902
1.5
966
4868
2.0
2056
2811
4.3
1661
1150
1109
22.3
16752
12170
4582
17.4
952
5534
13.7
2177
3357
19.4
2710
647
618
-44.2
18346
12160
6186
35.0
1149
7335
32.5
2485
4850
44.5
3217
1634
1585
156.4
22476
16186
6289
1.7
1149
7438
1.4
2306
5132
5.8
2798
2334
2101
32.5
99071
32031
6
5475
42927
99071
20
115540
17
34403
7
12901
45771
115540
17
128283
11
55733
62
9492
52245
128283
11
153939
20
67707
21
12315
62692
153939
20
184727
20
81249
20
14777
75231
184727
20
Avg. Yield on loans
Avg. Yield on Investments
Avg. Cost of Deposit
Avg. Cost of Borrowimgs
8.6
6.6
4.7
12.5
9.9
7.1
6.5
6.1
10.0
7.1
6.6
7.0
9.0
6.8
7.0
6.0
9.0
7.5
6.4
6.0
Valuation
Book Value
CMP
P/BV
135
107
0.8
137
79
0.6
146
50.1
0.3
173
75.25
0.4
185
75.25
0.4
Balance Sheet
Deposits( Rs Cr)
Change (%)
of which CASA Dep
Change (%)
Borrowings( Rs Cr)
Investments( Rs Cr)
Loans( Rs Cr)
Change (%)
Ratio
Source: Company/Eastwind
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
19
20. KPIT Tech.
"NEUTRAL"
27th Jan' 14
"On billion dollar journey"
Result update
Neutral
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
151
-
Upside
Change from Previous
-
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
532400
KPIT
189/92
2910
144511
6267
Stock Performance
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1M
-7.95
-7.65
1yr
32.66
29.16
YTD
-17.1
-18.32
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
Current
22.53
41.96
6.99
28.52
Price Performance
2QFY14 1QFY14
22.87
24.25
36.42
32.79
11.12
10.93
29.59
32.03
KPIT Tech witnessed weak numbers, now..they will miss its earning guidance;
KPIT Technologies Ltd revealed its 3QFY14 earnings with below than expectation, sales
declined by 3.5%(QoQ) in INR term and 2.3%(QoQ) in USD term due to the delay in
project kick-off and additional loss of billing days in Q3FY14. Despite cost optimization
strategy by company, PAT dip by 9% (QoQ).
Now, Company will be in the position of short with its annual revenue guidance. The
shortfall in the revenue is entirely because of deficit in SAP SBU revenue for FY14.
However, on profit they are confident to exceed the higher end of the guidance
despite the challenges faced on SAP SBU profitability.
The company expects better earnings, confident of generating a positive cash flow for
FY14E, after considering the balance payments for existing M&A deals.
Steady set of margin: EBITDA margin almost flat at 15.3% and PAT margin declined by
50bps to 9%, sequentially. Commenting on margin, management stated that the higher
margin growth business coming up apart from revenue growth would improve the
margins going ahead. By next couple of quarter margin from SAP business would inch
up.
Growth inside the Europe: Europe region has been the leading growth market with
9.1%. During the quarter, USA had a marginal de-growth in USD terms and APAC
declined by 18%(QoQ) because of seasonality and furloughs impact. In INR terms,
Europe grew by 7.7%, US down by 2.5% and APAC 19.4%, on QoQ.
Mix growth across verticals: On INR basis, KPIT reported 8% of growth from Energy &
Utilities (15% contribution on sales), while Manufacturing (39% contribution on sales)
down by 4%(QoQ) and Automotive & Transport-(36% contribution on sales) down by
1.5%, sequentially.
Deal Momentum: There has been good momentum during Q3 across the business lines
in terms of deal closure and pipeline building. Though in 3 large deals there has been
almost a quarter’s delay in closure, two in SAP and one in A&E, that got closed during
Q3. Company closed large deals in excess of USD 70 million during the quarter, which
provides a sound platform, going into FY15E.
View and Valuation: Impressive organic growth despite inorganic thrust (acquired 10
companies in the last 10 yrs), Potential option value from success of its hybrid engine
venture Revolo (on trial). KPIT has targeted to reach $1bn sales by 2017. Its
differentiated positioning and competitive edge in its focus areas, imperatives to the
success of smaller-sized IT vendors impress to investors.
Considering delay executions of some projects for next 2 quarters and ongoing change
in organization structure, we have a “Neutral” view on the stock. Already we had
advised to book profit on 8th Jan 2014 at a target price of Rs177(Initiated at Rs115). Our
view on the stock could be change after favorable update on stock and healthy earning
guidance for FY15E. At a CMP of Rs151, stock trades at 9x FY15E EPS.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
3QFY14
677.93
103.5
66.7
15.3%
9.8%
2QFY14
702.76
108.1
66.7
15.4%
9.5%
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
(QoQ)-%
(3.5)
(4.3)
0.0
(10bps)
30bps
3QFY13
567.02
94.1
48
16.6%
8.5%
Rs, Crore
(YoY)-%
19.6
10.0
39.0
(130bps)
130bps
20
21. KPIT Tech
Sales and Sales growth-%(QoQ)
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Sales Mix
4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14
Sales Mix (% of Sales) - Geography
USA
UK & Europe
RoW
Sales Mix (% of Sales) - Verticles
Automotive & Transportation
Manufacturing
Energy & Utilities
Others
73.3%
14.4%
12.3%
76.2%
14.6%
9.2%
76.4%
12.1%
11.6%
74.7%
13.9%
11.4%
76.3%
11.3%
12.3%
75.0%
13.1%
11.9%
71.9%
13.8%
14.4%
72.6%
15.4%
12.0%
37.1%
35.0%
11.6%
16.4%
39.6%
32.9%
13.7%
13.8%
38.8%
32.4%
15.3%
13.5%
40.3%
34.0%
14.2%
11.5%
38.5%
35.4%
13.5%
12.7%
35.5%
39.6%
14.1%
10.8%
36.1%
39.7%
13.6%
10.7%
36.4%
38.9%
15.1%
9.7%
Margin-%
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Revolo: The unit has been in the process of conducting trials in 40 vehicles, which has
been yielding encouraging results, with fuel savings between 30-40%. KPIT is working to
bring the costs down further and attaining regulatory approvals.As per the management,
by next year it could be a part of revenue.
Client Metrics: Amongst the top customer accounts, Cummins has grown by 4.7% on a Qo-Q basis with revenue share at 17.9% during the quarter. The top 5 and top 10
customers had Q-o-Q decline of 3.2% and 1% respectively.
Headcounts Metrics: During the quarter, Considering the ramp up of deals, this quarter
was good for hiring prospect, adding around 300+ people during the quarter.Over the
next few quarters, we expect, company will introduce multiple initiatives to develop
individuals to take on more responsibilities in future. During the quarter, Attrition at 18%
(LTM).
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
21
23. Larsen & Toubro Ltd.
V-
"Neutral"
24th Jan' 14
"On Track of Revival………"
Result update
Neutral
CMP
Target Price
Previous
Target Price
Upside
Change from
Previous
1033
NA
NA
NA
NA
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range
H/L Capital
Mkt
(Rs Crores)
Average Daily
Volume
Nifty
500510
LT
861/114
6
80,145
95,662
6,346
Stock Performance-%
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1M
(2.7)
1yr
0.8
YTD
13.5
1.1
4.6
11.6
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
3QFY14
0.0
17.9
36.6
45.5
2QFY14 1QFY14
0.0
0.0
15.3
16.1
37.4
36.9
47.4
47.2
Price Performance V/s NIFTY
Construction & engineering major, L&T posted a surprisingly set of numbers for the quarter
ended Dec, 13. The company's net sales grew by a mere 11.8% on a yearly basis to Rs
14387.5crore. The company recurring bottom line witnessing a upstik of 12.15% , and came in
at Rs. 1136.3 crore. the results have been adjusted for the quarter as it transferred
hydrocarbon business to its subsidiary L&T Hydrocarbon Engineering with effect from April 1,
2013. Accordingly, the company restated suitably its earnings for the previous quarter ended
September 2013 and numbers relating to previous periods. However, if we If we consider the
exceptional gains on dilution of part stake in a subsidiary company, the overall PAT grew by
22.1 % during the quarter. While the operational performance has been good, the company
has witnessed good traction in its order book also. Order inflow for the quarter stood at Rs
21722 crore showing a growth of 21% on Y-o-Y basis. The total order book as on December
31st 2013 stood at Rs 171184 crore showing an increase of 13 % on Y-o-Y basis. EBITDA
margins for the Dec 2013 quarter expanded by 180 bps to 11.6% against 9.8% last year.
However, as per the management, the quarterly margins differ for every quarter as the project
completion cycle is different and hence it is difficult to capture the EBITDA movement every
quarter. Though we agree with the management’s comment, we still believe that there would
be some amount of pressure on the margins on a yearly basis due to risks related to
competition, inflation, adverse mix and a slowdown. As regards the results we are of the
opinion that, despite the gloomy scenario the results have been good. Consistent order inflow
is a major positive factor. We expect the sector to witness revival in coming quarters, whereas
we see a near term earnings growth muted and look for a better entry point. Currently we
have a neutral view on a stock.
Why neutral…???
Contribution margin expansion came as a surprise and in our recent meeting the management
attributed it to quarterly skews rather than improvement in project-level profitability. We build
slightly higher margins for FY2014E at 10.9% (versus 10% earlier). However, we believe margins
face downward trajectory over FY2014-16E (build EBITDA margin of 10.5% in FY2015E and 10.3%
in FY2016E) due to risks related to competition, inflation, adverse mix and a slowdown. L&T
maintained its revenue growth guidance of 15% yoy for FY2014 (9% posted in 9MFY14). We build
lower revenue growth of 12% in FY2014 implying 16% growth requirement in 4QFY14. L&T also
maintained its inflow guidance of 15-20% in FY2014 (strong 23% growth in 9MFY14; but is a bit
wary about maintaining this traction on delayed decision making by customers).
Outlook
We have a Neutral on L&T as we think it will be difficult rate L&T from today’s level without
earnings upgrade and/or uncertanity across sector. Downside risks are project delays, weaker
margins and stronger Rupee. Upside risks are higher than expected order inflow and higher
operating margins a head.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
3QFY14
14387.5
1674.8
1240.7
11.6%
8.4%
2QFY14
12308.4
1185.7
864.6
9.6%
6.8%
(Source: Company/ Eastwind Research)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
(QoQ)-%
16.9%
41.3%
43.5%
200 bps
160 bps
3QFY13
12869.3
1258.3
1013.2
9.8%
7.5%
Rs, Crore
(YoY)-%
11.8%
33.1%
22.4%
180 bps
90 bps
(Standalone)
23
24. N arnolia Securities Ltd
402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lord s Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph
033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000
em ail: research@narnolia.com ,
w ebsite : w w w .narnolia.com
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the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation
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