Narnolia Securities Limited initiated Swaraj Engines Ltd stock CMP of INR 61, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of Rs. 54.20 by 12.0x and FY15E EPS of Rs. 61.7 We advice to book profit on the stock and BUY rating to the stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD with a target price of Rs. 148
Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of UltraTech Cement Ltd, DB Corp and Infosys with target price of Rs 1846,Rs 340 and Rs 400 to Rs 440 respectively
Narnolia Securities Limited see Coal India at a attractive valuation to go long from the current dips. So we stick to our previous estimates with revised price premium and recommend Maintain Buy CIL at price dips with a revised target price of Rs.318/-. Which is ~13% upside from the current level.
Narnolia Securities Limited have raised our target price largely due to two factors –(1) margin and return ratio likely to improve from April quarter as permanagement and (2) price would settle at 3.2 times of FY14E book due to showing some positive upturn in economy and boost up of market sentiment. Narnolia Securities Limited recommend buy stock of Indusind bank price target of Rs.540
Ingvysya Bank has not participated in recent market rally despite of strong liability base franchise and stable asset quality. Narnolia Securities Limited retained our BUY rating with price target of Rs.680 per share
India Equity Analytics today by Narnolia Securities Limited. We recommended Kajaria Ceremics and Zensar Tech to BUY the stock with target price of Rs 350 and Rs 440 respectively. Also book profit on HDFC LTD stock.
Narnolia Securities Limited expect that the KPIT Tech company would report better earnings with margin ramp up and signing of larger deals in next couple of quarters. Now, we upgrade our view on the stock from “Neutral” to “Buy” with a price target of Rs 185. At a CMP of Rs 160, stock trades at 9.5x FY15E EPS.
Hindustan Zinc’s (HZL) Q3FY14 stood at Rs. 3450.1 crore higher by 8.6% YoY. We reaffirm our positive stance on HZL and assign a BUY rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 148
Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of UltraTech Cement Ltd, DB Corp and Infosys with target price of Rs 1846,Rs 340 and Rs 400 to Rs 440 respectively
Narnolia Securities Limited see Coal India at a attractive valuation to go long from the current dips. So we stick to our previous estimates with revised price premium and recommend Maintain Buy CIL at price dips with a revised target price of Rs.318/-. Which is ~13% upside from the current level.
Narnolia Securities Limited have raised our target price largely due to two factors –(1) margin and return ratio likely to improve from April quarter as permanagement and (2) price would settle at 3.2 times of FY14E book due to showing some positive upturn in economy and boost up of market sentiment. Narnolia Securities Limited recommend buy stock of Indusind bank price target of Rs.540
Ingvysya Bank has not participated in recent market rally despite of strong liability base franchise and stable asset quality. Narnolia Securities Limited retained our BUY rating with price target of Rs.680 per share
India Equity Analytics today by Narnolia Securities Limited. We recommended Kajaria Ceremics and Zensar Tech to BUY the stock with target price of Rs 350 and Rs 440 respectively. Also book profit on HDFC LTD stock.
Narnolia Securities Limited expect that the KPIT Tech company would report better earnings with margin ramp up and signing of larger deals in next couple of quarters. Now, we upgrade our view on the stock from “Neutral” to “Buy” with a price target of Rs 185. At a CMP of Rs 160, stock trades at 9.5x FY15E EPS.
Hindustan Zinc’s (HZL) Q3FY14 stood at Rs. 3450.1 crore higher by 8.6% YoY. We reaffirm our positive stance on HZL and assign a BUY rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 148
Shree Cement very good strategy for capacity expansion. We are positive to buy stocks with Target Price Rs.4791. Also why positive outlook in sector 2014 and earning guidance for FY15E on IT industry
Coal India LTD expect modest increase in sales volumes growth during FY2013-15 on account of poor offtake capabilities of CIL. We are positive to buy stocks with Target Price Rs.334.
Narnolia Securities Limited believe Bank of Baroda would rally more because of trading at lower side despite of index is running at all time high. But with this fundamental Bank of Baroda would trade in range of Rs.625 to Rs.700 depending upon sentiment as per our view.
Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd with target price of Rs 1420 and Rs. 350 respectively. Also book profit on DIVISLAB stock which has achieved our recommended Target price of Rs 1350.
Hindalco Industries Ltd has expanded its aluminium capacity recently which expected to face cost pressures, resulting in lower return ratios over FY2013-15. We recommend to BUY stock with target price of Rs 2330
Emami’s Ltd focus on increasing rural penetration, favorable monsoon, continuous strengthening of its brand equity. Narnolia Securities Limited recommend “Buy” on the stock with a target price of Rs 635
Narnolia Securities Limited expect, TCS will be star performer in growth sense than other peers. Hence,we are maintaining 17% (revised from 18%) revenue growth in dollar term for FY14E because of improved demand environment, while NASSCOM expects 12-14% for the Industry. At a price of Rs 2041, it is trading at 18x FY15E earnings, We maintain" BUY" view on the stock with a target price of Rs 2510. Also Hold Stock of HDFC Bank
Narnolia Securities Limited are positive to buy stock of Tata Steel Ltd, V-Guard Industries Ltd and Infosys with target prize Rs.401, Rs.525, Rs 3760 respectively. Also Book profit on Axis bank Stock
Narnolia Securities Limited believe for the current market scenario the price is fare enough to trade.But looking at future capex plans and sluggish demand we belive the earnings and profitability of Shree cement may fall for the next two consecutive quarters.Also Value of Axis bank at Rs.1217/share implying 1.5 times of FY14E’s book value which is quite reasonable as per our view
Yes Bank profit growth was higher than expectation due and CMC remains a strong with excellent earning visibility led by joint effort of market strategy by TCS in its product and solutions. We recommend Neutral rating on both and buy stock of NIIT Tech which expect good growth from Travel & Tourism vertical in FY'14
Narnolia Securities Limited expect that eClerx Services organic revenue growth remains soft in near term, and company is very focussed on inorganic growth and expect to see growth from cable business . we recommend ”BUY”view on the stock with a target price of Rs 1410 (revised from Rs 1350) .
Shree Cement very good strategy for capacity expansion. We are positive to buy stocks with Target Price Rs.4791. Also why positive outlook in sector 2014 and earning guidance for FY15E on IT industry
Coal India LTD expect modest increase in sales volumes growth during FY2013-15 on account of poor offtake capabilities of CIL. We are positive to buy stocks with Target Price Rs.334.
Narnolia Securities Limited believe Bank of Baroda would rally more because of trading at lower side despite of index is running at all time high. But with this fundamental Bank of Baroda would trade in range of Rs.625 to Rs.700 depending upon sentiment as per our view.
Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd with target price of Rs 1420 and Rs. 350 respectively. Also book profit on DIVISLAB stock which has achieved our recommended Target price of Rs 1350.
Hindalco Industries Ltd has expanded its aluminium capacity recently which expected to face cost pressures, resulting in lower return ratios over FY2013-15. We recommend to BUY stock with target price of Rs 2330
Emami’s Ltd focus on increasing rural penetration, favorable monsoon, continuous strengthening of its brand equity. Narnolia Securities Limited recommend “Buy” on the stock with a target price of Rs 635
Narnolia Securities Limited expect, TCS will be star performer in growth sense than other peers. Hence,we are maintaining 17% (revised from 18%) revenue growth in dollar term for FY14E because of improved demand environment, while NASSCOM expects 12-14% for the Industry. At a price of Rs 2041, it is trading at 18x FY15E earnings, We maintain" BUY" view on the stock with a target price of Rs 2510. Also Hold Stock of HDFC Bank
Narnolia Securities Limited are positive to buy stock of Tata Steel Ltd, V-Guard Industries Ltd and Infosys with target prize Rs.401, Rs.525, Rs 3760 respectively. Also Book profit on Axis bank Stock
Narnolia Securities Limited believe for the current market scenario the price is fare enough to trade.But looking at future capex plans and sluggish demand we belive the earnings and profitability of Shree cement may fall for the next two consecutive quarters.Also Value of Axis bank at Rs.1217/share implying 1.5 times of FY14E’s book value which is quite reasonable as per our view
Yes Bank profit growth was higher than expectation due and CMC remains a strong with excellent earning visibility led by joint effort of market strategy by TCS in its product and solutions. We recommend Neutral rating on both and buy stock of NIIT Tech which expect good growth from Travel & Tourism vertical in FY'14
Narnolia Securities Limited expect that eClerx Services organic revenue growth remains soft in near term, and company is very focussed on inorganic growth and expect to see growth from cable business . we recommend ”BUY”view on the stock with a target price of Rs 1410 (revised from Rs 1350) .
Sanoma-onderzoek 'Het Fijne van Vrouwen'Researchblog
Onderzoek ‘Het Fijne van Vrouwen’•Kwalitatief onderzoek: 15 vrouwen, 20-49 jaar
Onderzoek onder 1.332 vrouwen van 18-65 jaar, uitgevoerd door TNS Nipo in opdracht van Sanoma Uitgevers. De Nederlandse vrouw breed in kaart gebracht, met een focus op zes domeinen: Uiterlijke verzorging, Reizen, Mode, Food, Health/Wellness, Woninginrichting. De studie is eerder in 2005 en 2000 uitgevoerd.
Tata Motors stock at its CMP of Rs 364 is trading at 7.34 x of one year forward FY14E EPS of Rs50.The robust 3QFY14 results, Strong cash flows by JLR and better demand outlook, Narnolia Securities limited Maintain BUY for the stock with Target Price Rs 425
Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of Coal India LTD and Cipla Limited with target price of Rs 440 and Rs.307 respectively and neutral view on the stock of Canara bank.
See Private Sector Banks Result Review 3QFY14. Powergrid strong growth visibility and minimal operational risks. We valued stock for a 12 month period at a target price of Rs.118 also We rate a BUY rating on the stock with an 12 months price target price of Rs 80.0 at 4.1x FY15E earnings of IFGL Refractories Ltd stock.
The Prestige Estate has moved up form starting of CY12, peaked in May13, then went down gradulally. Narnolia Securities Limited do not recommend additional investment in this stock despite its gains in the current period.
Narnolia Securities Limited recommend on Dabur India Ltd “Buy” view on the stock with a target price of Rs206 as well as CAN FIN HOME stock with price target of Rs.220. Neutral view on DB CORP Share
Narnolia Securities Limited believe the ACC Limited stock's fundamental is still good and price too cheap also , but for the earning upgradation and revised target price we would like to see the 1st quarter earnings,hence we recommend Book Profit on the stock at a price range between Rs.1253 to Rs.1310. Also Hold the Stock of ICIC Bank. For more information please go through this PDF
Mr. Narayan Murthy expressed its view regarding senior level exits from the company. In near term, non-performers in Infosys could be asked to leave or may hand over layoff notices. Infosys will retain its revenue acceleration and margin expansion. We retain our “BUY” view on the stock with a target price of target price of Rs 3910 .
Narnolia Securities Limited provides guidance on daily stock market. We assist customer in buying, holding and selling stocks based on analysis report. For more information visit our website http://www.narnolia.com/
GAIL (India) Limited Company registered a turnover of Rs. 26902.25 Cr, up by 19% in H1FY14 but Other income was down 8% to Rs 279.6 Cr. Narnolia Securities Limited recommend neutral view on the stock.
India Equity Analytics today by Narnolia Securities Limited. We recommended Reliance and Emami Ltd to BUY the stock with target price of Rs 1040 and Rs635 respectively. Also book profit on Kotak bank stock.
Hindalco Industries Ltd greater comfort on sustainability and visibility of ramp up in UAIL operations, we raise our FY16E volume and consolidated EBITDA by ~2%. Narnolia Securities Limited continue to see Hindalco benefiting over next three years from volume growth in Novelis and Indian operations. We recommeded buy stock with targated price of Rs.140 which is a 15% upside addition.
Reliance Industries Limited registered a turnover of Rs 197112 Cr which is healthy operating profits of half year. we recommend to BUY the stock with target price of Rs 1040 as well as hold Jammu and Kashmir Bank due to trading at lower valuation in comparison to private sector banks.
Hindustan Zinc LTD have strong visibility over production growth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, Narnolia Securities Limited are positive on HZL. We recommend Neutral rating on HZL with a target price of Rs.143 for FY14.For more information visit our website http://www.narnolia.com/
Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of Oriental Bank’s and Finolex Cables Ltd with target price Rs. 90 and Rs.216/share. Also see the FY15E, NASSCOM expects IT exports to grow by 13-15%.
Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of TCS, HDFC Bank, FEDERAL BANK, DB CORP and ITC Stock with target price of Rs 2360 ,Rs 760/share, 98/share, Rs 340, and Rs 380 respectively
Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of Stock SWARAJ ENGINES, Kolte-Patil Developers, Kalpatru Power Transmission and Godrej Consumer Product with target price of Rs Rs 648 ,Rs 120, Rs.95 and Rs 960 respectively
Narnolia Securities Limited initiated KPIT stock at a CMP of Rs 115 (14 Jan 2013) and now, it achieved its target of Rs 177. We advice to book profit on the stock because of its premium valuation. For information visit our website http://www.narnolia.com/
In this week seen stability in Stock Markets but Sharp devaluation in Thai Baht has brought a contagion effecting currency of all emerging markets and sharp fall in equity market.
Infosys largely reported inline set of sales numbers. We retain our BUY view on the stock with a target price of target price of Rs 3910 as well as neutral view on the stock of Indusind bank. Also private Bank result preview 3QFY14 in this Pdf.
Similar to Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd (20)
Narnolia Securities Limited cover Persistent System as one of the few companies in the tier-II with potential to grow revenue at a range of 18-20%. Considering the company’s premium valuation, we advice “Book Profit” on the stock. At a CMP of Rs 1059, stock trades at 13.4x FY15E earnings. Our view could be change with management guidance, higher currency flactuations and post earnings of coming quarter
Considering management’s aggressive expansion in production capacity and marketing network, Narnolia Securities Limited believe company can deliver good growth in coming years. Further, we expect the company to benefit immensely from the subdued steel prices currently. Narnolia Securities Limited expect the benefit to flow in for the next coming quarters as well. We recommend a "Buy" rating on stock with price target of Rs. 105
HCL tech’s decent level of utilization, focused on cost control andutilization of new market opportunities through vendor’s consolidation would provide a new shape to the company in near future. Narnolia Securities Limited retain BUY onthe stockand revised our target price from Rs 1560 to Rs 1650.
Narnolia Securities Limited initiated Swaraj Engines Ltd stock CMP of INR 61, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of Rs. 54.20 by 12.0x and FY15E EPS of Rs. 61.7 We advice to book profit on the stock and BUY rating to the stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD with a target price of Rs. 148
All IT companies are accelerating its revenue growth and shaping up its margin because of favorable demand and supply environment. We maintain our positive stance on (In order ofpreference) TECHM, PERSISTENT, ZENSARTECH, ECLERX and KPIT under mid cap space.
Most of banking stocks reported moderate revenue and profit growth owing to multiple headwinds. In near term we are not seeing improvement in economic condition and asset quality pressure are expected to remain in the system due to tight liquidity situation and rising interest rate. Post result we like SBI, Union Bank and UCO Bank due to their structural improvement in balance sheet, operating and financial metrics.
Narnolia Securities Limited natural view on Stock of Dena Bank, Nestle India. Also we recommend BUY for the Vardhman Textiles stock with target price of Rs.412 because current earning growth and environment the stock is looking very good but due
to lack of trigeers in FY15 we are really conservative for FY15
Asset quality was better among peers but in tight liquidity situation it would remain challenging. Margin was compressed slightly in sequential basis but management continued to guided domestic NIM at 3% level from present of 2.95%. NSL value bank at Rs.634/share which is 0.75 times of FY14E’s book value.
Bank’s management continued to guide loan growth of 20% in FY14 but we lower our loan growth assumption to 15% for FY14 . We recommend ”BUY”view on the stock with a target price of Rs 1525
Britannia Industries volume growth will recover gradually over the next few quarters, driven by higher brand spends and portfolio expansion. Narnolia Securities Limited have "BUY" view on the stock with a target price of Rs 1065
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd
1. IEA-Equity
Strategy
India Equity Analytics
6th March, 2014
Daily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities
Hindustan Zinc LTD : Good gains ahead
"BUY"
Edition : 219
6th Mar 2014
Zinc fundamentals are becoming attractive with suppotive lead prices brings a positive outlook for Hindustan Zinc.With a cash-rich balance sheet
and strong visibility over production growth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we are positive on HZL.Being an integrated & dominant
player in the domestic industry with low cost of production, the company is poised to benefit in the long run. Now the stock is trading at 1.6x in
one year forward P/B we estimated it at 1.8x for 2015.At current level we see a significant growth in the stock. We valued & reaffirm our
positive stance on HZL and assign a BUY rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 148/-. ....................................................... ( Page : 2-4)
Voltas Ltd : Downgrade to "Neutral"…….
"NEUTRAL"
6th Mar 2014
The company has been evaluating strategic alternatives since 2012, we believe the company is not inclined to sell at valuations multiple of 2
times of its FY15E book value. However, If the company if things will going positively we could rationalize valuations near Rs. 145 per share, but
we don't believe buyers would be willing to pay a premium to BVPS more than 2 times at this time. We are downgrading Voltas to Neutral given
the recent rise in its share price following 3QFY14 earnings and revised our price target to Rs. 120. ................................................................ (
Page : 5-6)
SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd :
"BOOK PROFIT"
6th Mar 2014
In our earlier report dated 25-04-13, we had recommended readers to buy the scrip with a view to earn healthy gains. As expected, the counter
have given a premium of 40 per cent over its recommended price. We expect the current price growth rally factored all the fundamental
changes, and we advise our readers to book profits at the current levels. Our bearish attitude on the counter stems from its valuations. At a
P/BV of 2.8x of its annualised FY14E RoE of Rs 28.7%, we believe that the counter is very expensive in comparison of its own past historical data .
...................................................................... ( Page : 7-8)
EROSMEDIA :"Moving to Blockbuster"
"BUY"
5th Mar 2014
Healthy movies pipeline for FY15E; Company is expecting to release more than 8 big budget movies across Hindi and regional languages.
Likewise, company is going to release much awaited Rajnikanth’s movie Kochadaiiyaan on 11 April, 2014. Its well positioned to monetize rich
content of library ensures annuity and regular set of revenue. .......................................... ( Page :9-11)
Escorts Ltd: "Volume Growth Remains The Key;Retain Buy"
"BUY"
5th Mar 2014
Going forward, we remain positive on the company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. We expect demand to improve further in
FY2014E with the economic recovery. However, we remain cautious with regards to growth in Construction Equipment segment in near-tomedium. Thus, We revise our estimates upwards to factor in the strong CY13 tractor volume performance. We therefore revised our rating on
the stock from "Reduce" to "Buy" and advised to our investors to enter at current level with Revised price target of Rs. 175
........................................................................ ( Page : 12-13)
Infosys : "Meritocracy to growth"
"BUY"
4th Mar 2014
In the recent webcast, Mr. Narayan Murthy expressed its view regarding senior level exits from the company. In near term, non-performers in
Infosys could be asked to leave or may hand over layoff notices. Infosys will retain its revenue acceleration and margin expansion, also operating
metrics will turn into greenery from hay. At a CMP of Rs 3793, it trades at 17.4x FY15E earnings. We retain our “BUY” view on the stock with a
target price of target price of Rs 3910 . ............................................................... ( Page : 14-16)
Powergrid :
"BUY"
3th Mar 2014
The stock is trading at 1.7x FY15E BVPS. We estimate to Power grid stock to trade at 1.8x BVPS. Valuation is very reasonable for a business
model with RoE (16%), strong growth visibility and minimal operational risks. We valued stock for a 12 month period at a target price of
Rs.118.With equity dilution overhang on the stock is removed, so we expect the stock price will drive by purely on its fundamentals, on our
estimates we maintain a positive fundamental outlook for Power grid. Also, govt. stake coming down to 58% is a positive, as risk of further
equity dilution is reduced . ............................................................ (Page : 17)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
2. Hindustan Zinc LTD.
"BUY"
6th March' 14
Good gains ahead
Result Update
BUY
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
123
148
148
20%
0%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
Nifty
500188
HINDZINC
142/94
51929
5192
6329
Stock Performance-%
1M
4.3
0.0
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1yr
-1.7
9.2
YTD
-3.4
11.3
Share Holding Pattern-%
3QFY14
64.9
1.8
31.4
1.8
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
2QFY14 1QFY14
64.9
64.9
1.8
1.5
31.4
31.5
1.8
2.1
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-07
0
Jan-08
We believe Zinc price will be the core fundamental behind the Hindustan zinc’s bull story
in the coming years. We see a improving volume of production through FY15.More So
Govt. The attorney-general’s clearance for the Centre’s proposal to divest its residual
stake in Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL) lifted the Street’s mood. Again the board delayed this
process and guided investors that disinvestment of government's remaining stake in
Hindustan Zinc will happen next fiscal year. Stake sale in HZL again seems to be back
burner now. We also see gradual and sustainable recovery in global macro Scenario
which supports a positive cycle in industrial metals. So, we believe there exists a strong
case for significant earnings estimate for Hind Zinc in coming months.
Robust Q3FY14 Performance :
Hindustan Zinc’s (HZL) Q3FY14 performance was inline to our estimates on the back of
healthy zinc sales volumes and higher metal premiums. Total operating income for
Q3FY14 stood at Rs. 3450.1 crore higher by 8.6% YoY but lower by 3.1% QoQ. Total zinc
sales in Q3FY14 came in at 196,000 tonne, up 17% YoY and 2% QoQ . The company
realised premium on metal sales amounting to $241/tonne for zinc (Zn) & $305/tonne for
lead (Pb) . Lead sales volume for the quarter stood at 23500 tonnes (lower by 24% QoQ
and 22% YoY), while silver sales volumes stood at 78500 kg (lower by 31% YoY and 14%
QoQ) . EBITDA came in at Rs.1823.8 crore and inline to our estimate of Rs. 1829.6 crore.
Subsequently, net profit stood at Rs. 1722.7 crore .
Valuation & Recommendation
Zinc fundamentals are becoming attractive with suppotive lead prices brings a positive
outlook for Hindustan Zinc.With a cash-rich balance sheet and strong visibility over
production growth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we are positive on HZL.Being
an integrated & dominant player in the domestic industry with low cost of production,
the company is poised to benefit in the long run. Now the stock is trading at 1.6x in one
year forward P/B we estimated it at 1.8x for 2015.At current level we see a significant
growth in the stock. We valued & reaffirm our positive stance on HZL and assign a BUY
rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 148/-.
1 yr Forward P/B
Jan-07
Zinc market was bearish during last consecutive years having surplus in inventory, but
now sentiment is slowly turning positive showing some uptrends in Zinc LME prices.
Visible inventories on the London Metals Exchange, as well as on the Shanghai Futures
Exchange, are down about 30% over the last year. And zinc demand is increasing steadily.
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Financials :
Net Revenue
EBITDA
Depriciation
Tax
PAT
Q3FY14
3450
1824
210
305
1723
Y-o-Y %
8.6
22.1
18.6
50.2
6.8
Q-o-Q %
-9.8
-3.1
12.9
20.1
5.1
Q3FY13
3178
1494
177
203
1613
Q2FY14
3826
1883
186
254
1640
(In Crs)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
2
3. Hindustan Zinc LTD.
Silver(rs/ounce)
Nov-13
Dec-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
B. A reason to wait and watch , is since the government is looking at auction, how much
will Vedanta be able to garner and what price it is willing to pay is not known.
Feb-13
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Mar-13
Key Concerns
A. Volatile Desel Price and high Sulphuric acid price affecting the company,s PAT adversly.
LME Price/Ton
Jan-13
Lower Production Guideline
HZL has marginally downward revised its mined metal production guidance for FY14 from
950,000 tonnes earlier to 900,000 tonnes. This reflects slower-than-expected ramp up of
underground mining projects and some changes in mining sequence wherein preference
has been given to primary mine development during this period.
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
H. Zinc premium reaches six year high as inventories shrink
I. Fees that zinc smelter charge to refine the metat that probably to increase 5%.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
LME Price/Ton
Lead
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
LME Price/Ton
Zinc
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
125000
120000
115000
110000
105000
100000
95000
90000
Jan-13
C. HZL’s revenues are directly linked with the global market for products essentially, Zinc
and Lead which are priced with reference to LME prices and Silver to LBMA (London
Bullion Metal Association) prices.
D. Lower than expected demand by galvanizing industries for zinc and industrial batteries,
car batteries industries for lead would affect the company estimates.
E. Disruptions in mining due to equipment failures, unexpected maintenance problems ,
non-availability of raw materials of appropriate price, quantity and quality for energy
requirements, disruptions to or increased cost of transport services or strikes and
industrial actions or disputes.
Key Triggers for Growth
A. Company is tracking on 95% capacity utilization.
B. Captive plants enjoy the lower Tax rate and company enjoys zero tax from tax free
geographycal areas.
C. Smelting Plants are improvised and management is confident that the smelting plants
will maintain their stance for the coming quarters also.
D. The Rampura Agucha underground mine project is operational via ramps (tunnel driven
downward from the surface) and commercial production already ramp up in Q3 and will
in Q4 of FY14 . The Kayad mine project will also commence commercial production in
the current fiscal year.
E. A cash-rich balance sheet, low cost of production and inexpensive valuations make HZL
an attractive bet at the current price levels.
F. Disinvestment of government's remaining stake in Hindustan Zinc and Bharat
Aluminium (Balco) will happen next fiscal year .
G. In the past Vedanta Group has said it wanted majority control when Vedanta had earlier
offered Rs 149 a share . If this is any benchmark,then investors will stand to gain.
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
3
4. Hindustan Zinc LTD.
P/L PERFORMANCE
Net Revenue from Operation
Other Income
Total Income
Power, fuel & water
Repairs
Expenditure
EBITDA
Depriciation
Interest Cost
Net tax expense / (benefit)
PAT
ROE%
B/S PERFORMANCE
Share capital
Reserve & Surplus
Total equity
Trade payables
Short-term provisions
Total liabilities
Intangibles
Tangible assets
Capital work-in-progress
Long-term loans and advances
Inventories
Trade receivables
Cash and bank balances
Short-term loans and advances
Total Assets
FY11
9912
979
10891
1023
492
4417
5496
475
19
1059
4900
22.0
FY10
423
17701
18124
478
340
20238
109
6071
1113
361
452
152
928
96
20238
FY12
11405
1543
12948
1228
568
5336
6069
611
14
1419
5526
21.0
FY11
845
21688
22533
475
567
25053
109
7145
875
594
762
209
5633
158
25053
FY13
12700
2032
14732
1070
696
6218
6482
647
29
921
6899
21.0
FY12
845
26036
26881
410
504
29485
47
8466
445
876
798
332
5255
233
29485
FY14E
13577
1787
15364
1291
707
6484
7093
718
37
1097
6967
19.0
FY13
845
31431
32276
484
825
35465
10
8474
1082
1898
1111
403
6942
373
35465
RATIOS
P/B
EPS
Debtor to Turnover%
Creditors to Turnover%
Inventories to Turnover%
CASH FLOWS
Cash from Operation
Changes In Working Capital
Net Cash From Operation
Cash From Investment
Cash from Finance
Net Cash Flow during year
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
3.2
95.6
1.9
6.0
0.6
FY10
4001
77
4077
-3881
-187
8
2.2
11.6
2.1
4.8
0.8
FY11
4483
-212
4272
-3658
-363
250
2.1
13.1
2.9
3.6
0.7
FY12
4553
-61
4492
-3499
-1242
-248
1.7
16.3
3.2
3.8
0.9
FY13
4935
-183
4752
-3234
-1257
262
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Net
Revenue
from
Operatio
n
4000
3500
3000
2500
30.0
Revenue
Growth
4500
15.0
25.0
20.0
2000
10.0
1500
5.0
1000
0.0
500
0
-5.0
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
ZinC Productions:
250000
Zinc Production
(tons)
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
EBIDTA & Margin :
2500
EBIDTA %
2000
49
49
50
47
43
1500
60
EBIDTA
43
41
40
42
30
1000
20
500
10
0
0
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
4
5. Voltas Ltd.
"Neutral"
6th Mar' 14
Downgrade to "Neutral"…….
Company update
Neutral
CMP
Target Price
Previous
Target Price
Upside
Change from
Previous
139
125
95
-10%
32%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range
H/L Capital
Mkt
(Rs Crores) Vol. (Nos.)
Average Daily
Nifty
500575
VOLTAS
65/143
4,609
624,126
6,329
Stock Performance-%
1M
28.5
23.1
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1yr
75.2
64.0
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
1 yr Forward P/B
Management comment on above JV :
Water has been identified as a key focus area for the Tata group. With its unrivalled know-how
and technological leadership in the water treatment space, the partnership, will help Voltas
Water Solutions cater to the growing water treatment requirements of the Indian subcontinent.
They further believe that partnership will simultaneously leverage the brand and distribution
strength of Voltas, along with the technology prowess of the water and process solutions division
of the Dow Group.
YTD
84.2
72.9
Our View on said JV :
In today scenario major Water and Waste Water Treatment market is mostly and largely catered
by unorganized players. And the market which is targeted by this new joint venture will provide a
branded and differentiated product line in the sector, with a focus on quality and service
delivery.
2QFY13 1QFY14
30.2
30.2
14.5
18.1
29.8
25.6
25.6
26.1
About Dow Group :
Dow Chemical Pacific (Singapore) Pte Ltd was established in 1992. Catering to customers in Asia
Pacific, particularly South East Asia, Dow Group combines the power of science and technology to
passionately innovate what is essential to human progress. The company is driving innovations
that extract value from the Intersection of chemical, physical and biological sciences to help
address many of the world's most challenging problems such as the need for clean water, clean
energy generation and conservation, and increasing agricultural productivity. The company's
integrated, market-driven, industry-leading portfolio of specialty chemical, advanced materials,
agrosciences and plastics businesses delivers a broad range of technology-based products and
solutions to customers in high growth sectors such as packaging, electronics, water, coatings and
agriculture.
Valuation :
The company has been evaluating strategic alternatives since 2012, we believe the company is
not inclined to sell at valuations multiple of 2 times of its FY15E book value. We estimate that at
the lower end of management's guidance this translates into a 12.1%/12.7% RoE forFY14/15E.
We believe management is attempting to be conservative regarding the guidance for FY14 &
FY15, but even with a 60/90 bps improvement in the operating margin the RoE would be
approximately 12.1%/12.7% for FY14/15E , which we believes would translate into a P/B multiple
of approximately 2.0x – to 2.2x. This translates to a 12 month price target of approximately Rs.
120 based on our FY14E BVPS of Rs. 59. However, If the company if things will going positively we
could rationalize valuations near Rs. 145 per share, but we don't believe buyers would be willing
to pay a premium to BVPS more than 2 times at this time. We are downgrading Voltas to Neutral
given the recent rise in its share price following 3QFY14 earnings and revised our price target
to Rs. 120.”
Share Holding Pattern-%
3QFY14
30.3
15.2
29.8
24.8
What New...???
Voltas Ltd has proposed to form a new joint venture (JV) company named –“ Voltas Water
Solutions” which will have equal capital contribution from “Voltas” and “Dow Chemical Pacific”
(Singapore) Pte (Dow). This JV company will market and distribute standard packaged Water
Treatment Systems and Waste Water Treatment Systems of capacity up to 20 m 3/hour, to
residential and commercial complexes and light industrial markets in the Indian subcontinent.
The entity's operations would include designing, procuring, testing, marketing, selling and
servicing of such standard water treatment systems and waste water treatment systems.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
5
7. SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd.
V-
"Book Profit"
6th Mar' 14
" Book Profits While The Going Is Good…. "
Company update
Book Profit
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
648
648
600
0%
7%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
500407
SWARAJENG
382/672
801
1,015
6,329
Stock Performance-%
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1M
5.3
(0.2)
1yr
47.8
36.6
YTD
63.4
52.0
In our earlier report dated 25-04-13, we had recommended readers to buy the scrip with a view
to earn healthy gains. As expected, the counter have given a premium of 40 per cent over its
recommended price. We expect the current price growth rally factored all the fundamental
changes, and we advise our readers to book profits at the current levels.
We are quite positive on the Swaraj Engines, owing to its strong tractor volume growth, capacity
expansion to 1,05,000 engines pa from 75,000 of current level, softening of commodity prices
and company presence in all HP segments. We are upbeat on the stock on the account of core
business momentum remains robust with healthy EPS growth, cash flow generation and high
RoE.
Moreover, we feel that caution is necessary over the recent robust financial as well as
operational performance that the company has delivered over the past year. With 90 per cent of
its turnover generated through parent company, the revenue stream also seems concentrated. In
conclusion, looking at the above mentioned woes, we advise readers to book profits in the
counter at its current levels and fresh buying may be considered at cheaper levels of around Rs.
500-550 a share.
Our bearish attitude on the counter stems from its valuations. At a P/BV of 2.8x of its annualised
FY14E RoE of Rs 28.7%, we believe that the counter is very expensive in comparison of its own
past historical data
Recommendation History
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
3QFY14
50.6
1.9
10.6
36.9
1 yr Forward P/B
2QFY14
50.6
1.9
10.4
37.1
1QFY14
50.6
1.5
10.6
37.3
Date
25th April' 13
17th June' 13
10th July' 13
1st Aug' 13
26th Nov' 13
3rd Feb' 14
Report Type
CMP
Target Price
Change From
Previous in %
Company Update
Company Update
Company Update
Result Update
Result Update
Result Update
460
511
533
484
610
602
515
535
535
535
600
648
NA
3.9%
0.0%
0.0%
12.1%
8.0%
Valuation
At the CMP of INR610, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of Rs. 54.20 by 12.0x and FY15E EPS of
Rs. 61.7 by 10.5x. Given the strong revenue growth at a CAGR of 21%; PAT growth at CAGR of
26% post acquisition and stable margins at ~15%, the company is poised to grow further and
capable of ustaining its healthy earnings. Furthermore, despite the capex of Rs. 38 crore, the
company has strong cash flows and the company is debt free. Also, Company assurance of 3060% dividend payout ratio implies an attractive dividend yield of 4-9%.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
7
9. EROSMEDIA
"BUY"
5th March' 14
"Moving to Blockbuster"
Initiating Report
Buy
CMP
160
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
200
25%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
533261
EROSMEDIA
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
195/107
1467
26241
6298
Stock Performance
1M
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1yr
YTD
13.1
8.2
-7.3
-17.4
-
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
Current
74.88
2QFY14
74.88
12.45
1.56
11.11
12.16
1.87
11.09
P/BV-1 year forward
1QFY14
74.88
11.35
2.95
10.82
Healthy movies pipeline for FY15E; Company is expecting to release more than
8 big budget movies across Hindi and regional languages. Likewise, company is
going to release much awaited Rajnikanth’s movie Kochadaiiyaan on 11 April,
2014. Apart from this, company is expected to release Dishkiyaaoon, Shadi Ke
Side Effect, Action Jackson, Tanu weds Manu season 2, Sarkar3, Chalo China,
NH-10, Dekho Magar Pyaar Se, Happy Ending and Rana in FY15E.
It has largest Indian content library of films with 1100+ films and digital rights
to an additional 700 films. Its well positioned to monetize rich content of
library ensures annuity and regular set of revenue.
Considering diversified and sustainable Business Model along with well
positioned to monetize rich content of its library and block buster success ratio
of movies (out of the top 10 grossing films in recent years, 3 are from Eros.)
make us positive view on the stock.
About Company: Eros International Media (EROS) is one of the largest films coproduction and distribution company in India and overseas, engage with presales of overseas rights, music rights and broadcasting rights. It recovers 35-40%
of its costs by selling movie rights to channels, recovers another 35-40% from
selling its overseas rights to overseas entities. Similarly, it gets 10-15% of the
cost of movies by selling music rights .
Robust 3QFY14 Result: Company reported better numbers with sales growth of
17% (YoY) led by huge spurt in catalogue monetization, which increase by approx75% (YoY). Its PAT grew by 41%(YoY).
During the quarter, Its EBITDA margin improved by 680bps (YoY) to 31.3%
because of reduction in operational expenses and employee expenses.
Management expects to see EBITDA margin at 25% in FY14E and FY15E than 2022% range of margin in previous 4 years.
Recent initiatives: Eros has struck new deals during the period with MSM
Satellite Singapore private ltd for broadcast of films on Sony as well as with
Viacom18 media for broadcast films on colours.
Recently Eros International media has launched two new movie channels HBO
DEFINED and HBO HITS, which will reduce its dependence on highly
unpredictable revenue streams going forward.
View and Valuation: Management is very excited to invest into different
medium like internet and launching channels to generate revenue. Company’s
optimistic stance towards maintaining margins, strong movies slate and very low
valuation makes attractive. At a CMP of Rs 160, stock trades at 1.1 P/BVx FY15.
We initiate “BUY” with a target price of Rs 200.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
3QFY14
432.68
135.6
92.0
31.3%
21.3%
2QFY14
201
51.2
37.0
25.4%
18.4%
(QoQ)-%
115.2
165.0
148.8
590bps
290bps
3QFY13
369.3
90.6
65.2
24.5%
17.7%
Rs, Crore
(YoY)-%
17.2
49.6
41.1
680bps
360bps
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
9
10. EROSMEDIA
Sales and Sales growth(%)(yoy)
Key Concerns:
1. Piracy is the key concern for the
company. Indian film industry loses
approx. Rs.2000 cr. every year due to
piracy (source: FICCI-KPMG report 2009).
2. Lower consumer discretionary demand.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
3. Difficult to predict fate of films.
Margin-%
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Upcoming Movies:
Date of Release
Q4FY14E
28-Feb-14
21-Mar-14
28-Mar-14
Upcoming movies
Director
Starcast
Shaadi Ke Side Effects
Dishkiyaaoon
Happy Ending
Saket Chaudhary
Sanmjit Singh Talwar
Raj and DK
Farhan Akhtar,Vidya Balan
Sunny Deol, Harman Baweja
Saif Ali Khan, Ileana D'Cruz
Q1FY15
11-Apr-14
6-Jun-14
Kochadaiiyaan
Action Jackson
Soundarya Ashwin
Prabhu Deva
Rajnikanth, Deepika Padukone
Ajay Devgn, Sonakshi Sinha
Q2FY15
12-Sep-14
NH-10
Navdeep singh
Anushka sharma,Neil bhoopalam
Tanu Weds Manu Season 2
R. Balki Untitled
Aankheen 2
Illuminati Untitled
Dekh Tamasha Dekh
Purani Jeans
Chalo china
Anand Rai
R.Balki
Apoorva Lakhia
Arif Ali
Feroz Abbas Khan
Tanushree Basu
Shashank Ghosh
R.Madhavan,Kangana Ranaut
Amitabh Bachchan, Dhanush
Abhishek Bachchan
Armaan Jain
Satish Kaushik and Others
Aditya Seal
Vinay Pathak, Lara Dutta
FY15E
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
10
11. EROSMEDIA
Management Guidance:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6
Catalogue monetization will continue to grow strong in the upcoming quarters.
Company will monetize entire portfolio across different platforms
Catalogue monetization will increase from 13%-14% to 20-25% of overall revenue in coming 3 to 4 years.
Management is looking for more and more free cash flows going forward.
Q4 will be very positive and going forward FY15E will also be very positive for the company.
Management is very confident about its performance going forward and expects EBITDA margin to be around 25% in
FY14E and FY15E.
Financials;
Rs,cr
Sales
RM Cost(Operatinal expenses)
WIP
Employee Cost
Other expenses
Total expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation and Amortisation
Other Income
EBIT
Interest
PBT
Tax Exp
PAT
Growth-% (YoY)
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
Expenses on Sales-%
RM Cost
Employee Cost
Other expenses
Tax rate
Margin-%
EBITDA
EBIT
PAT
Valuation:
CMP
No of Share
NW
EPS
BVPS
RoE-%
P/BV
P/E
FY10
640.88
480.33
0
19.7
27.81
527.84
113.04
4.39
12.62
108.65
9.02
112.25
29.63
82.62
FY11
706.97
495.13
0.84
25.28
29.57
550.82
156.15
3.82
8.95
152.33
9.39
151.89
33.67
118.22
FY12
943.88
665.45
-2.92
22.55
42.96
728.04
215.84
6
19.3
209.84
13.44
215.7
63.14
152.56
FY13
1067.95
765.78
-2.55
27.29
47.47
837.99
229.96
6.45
6.4
223.51
9.22
220.69
61.19
159.5
FY14E
1110.8
766.5
-2.7
29.4
29.4
822.7
288.1
7.7
11.1
280.4
25.4
266.2
77.7
188.5
FY15E
1229.9
860.9
-2.9
36.9
36.9
931.8
298.1
9.2
12.3
288.9
26.0
275.2
80.4
194.8
16.9%
52.8%
72.1%
10.3%
38.1%
43.1%
33.5%
38.2%
29.0%
13.1%
6.5%
4.5%
4.0%
25.3%
18.2%
10.7%
3.5%
3.4%
74.9%
3.1%
4.3%
4.6%
70.0%
3.6%
4.2%
4.8%
70.5%
2.4%
4.6%
6.7%
71.7%
2.6%
4.4%
5.7%
69.0%
2.7%
2.7%
7.0%
70.0%
3.0%
3.0%
6.5%
17.6%
17.0%
12.9%
22.1%
21.5%
16.7%
22.9%
22.2%
16.2%
21.5%
20.9%
14.9%
25.9%
25.2%
17.0%
24.2%
23.5%
15.8%
138.9
9.14
237.55
9.0
26.0
35%
5.3
15.4
138.9
9.14
670.48
12.9
73.4
17.6%
1.9
10.7
181.15
9.17
834.61
16.6
91.0
18.3%
2.0
10.9
180.53
9.19
986.5
17.4
107.3
16.2%
1.7
10.4
160.0
9.2
1158.6
20.5
126.1
16.3%
1.3
7.8
160.0
9.2
1337.0
21.2
145.5
14.6%
1.1
7.5
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
11
12. Escorts Ltd.
V-
"Buy"
5th Mar' 14
"Volume Growth Remains The Key; Retain Buy……."
Company update
Buy
CMP
Target Price
Previous
Target Price
Upside
Change from
Previous
115
175
95
52%
84%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range
H/L Capital
Mkt
(Rs Crores)
Average Daily
Volume
Nifty
500495
ESCORTS
48/96
1,402
225,953
6,298
In February month company witnessed a good tractor volume number. In February 2014
company sold 4,627 tractors, growth of 7.5% against 4,305 tractors in February month of 2013.
Domestic sales in February 2014 up by 6.8% stood at 4,581 tractors as against 4,288 tractors in
February 2013. Export for the month of February 2014 stood at 46 tractors as that of 17
tractors in February 2013. Also during the last 17 months tractor sales grossed at 94553 units
as against 86337 units sold during corresponding period of 15 months last year. Going forward
management indicated that volume growth is to be in double digit and at arround 14%. The
management further indicated that margins should improve from the current level on the back
of improvement in the product mix, taking hikes in the prices, controlling inflation, rid of
inflation, as well as cutting down on the other costs.
Tractor Volume
Stock Performance-%
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1M
(7.5)
(10.9)
1yr
86.6
77.3
YTD
131.4
121.9
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoter's
FII's
DII's
Others's
3QFY14
42.0
9.4
2.1
46.5
2QFY14 1QFY14
42.0
42.0
12.3
12.1
4.7
5.4
41.0
40.6
(Source: Company/Eastwind Research)
Outlook
An increase in volumes is an indication of healthy demand. The rise in volumes for this quarter
can be attributed to a good monsoon. Tractor sales seem to have improved across all players,
indicating an overall improvement in demand. We believe that this segment will continue to
support the growth of the company. The adverse macroeconomic conditions, however, will see
the performance of its construction equipment segment and auto ancillary segment remaining
subdued. For these businesses, the firm is looking at premium product positioning and to deliver
a better than expected customer experience. In addition, it is looking at the export market as a
window of opportunity especially in the auto ancillary business.
Valuation
The stock is currently trading at 6.5x FY14E EPS with a negative bias in case of construction
equipment segment due to adverse macroeconomic conditions . At current price of Rs. 117, the
stock is trading at P/E of 7.1 x for FY13E and 6.5 x the FY14E. Escorts could post EPS of Rs. 12.13
for FY14E and Rs. 12.98 for FY15E. An increase in volumes is an indication of healthy demand.
Tractor sales revival has enabled the company to register strong result. Escorts’ EBITDA margin
and bottom-line exceeded our expectations. Going forward, we remain positive on the
company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. Going forward, we remain positive on
the company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. We expect demand to improve
further in FY2014E with the economic recovery. However, we remain cautious with regards to
growth in Construction Equipment segment in near-to-medium. Thus, We revise our estimates
upwards to factor in the strong CY13 tractor volume performance. We therefore revised our
rating on the stock from "Reduce" to "Buy" and advised to our investors to enter at current
level with Revised price target of Rs. 175
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
12
14. Infosys
"BUY"
4th March' 14
"Meritocracy to growth"
Company update
BUY
Focus on meritocracy for client satisfaction as well as margin expansion;
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
3793
3910
3620
3%
8%
In the recent webcast, Mr. Narayan Murthy expressed its view regarding senior level
exits from the company. In near term, non-performers in Infosys could be asked to
leave or may hand over layoff notices. Despite high salaries, some identified
employees are not contributing so much to improve productivity and efficiency of
operations. Already, the restructuring initiatives has taken place at the top of the
pyramid and now shifted to mid level of pyramid. Hence, its pink slip strategy indicates
to regain its growth and margin in near term.
Considering the strategy to build clients relation, execution of growth oriented policy
and combination of reduced onsite costs and higher utilization would be an optimistic
growth story despite recent hiccups of top management exit.
Key takeaways from recent webcast;
Restructuring at middle management: Mr. Murthy has taken initiatives to improve
cost efficiency and effective delivery system. The management has rewarded the top
performers and has given an opportunity to mediocre performers. Its PIP (performance
Improvement Program) followed by exam, and appraisal would dictate the level of
efficiency for mediocre, and the situation of involuntary attrition.
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
500209
INFY
3847/2190
217810
1240448
6221
Stock Performance
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1M
4.5
0.8
1yr
30.4
21.6
YTD
53.1
49.4
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
Current
15.94
40.65
15.35
28.06
1 year forward P/E
2QFY14 1QFY14
15.94
16.04
39.93
39.55
16.16
18.28
27.97
26.13
Cost Rationalization: Company’s employee costs have ballooned very rapidly in the last
2-3 years. For example, on-site compensation was 36% of the overall revenue in FY11
and it went up to 46.3% in FY13, Overall employee cost on sales increased from
52%(FY09) to 56% (FY13). Company has hired a number of employees at higher salaries
outside India and employees are not adding efficient growth in productivity.
Improving utilization level: Comparing with other peers, its utilization level (excluding
trainees) declined from 80% in FY11 to 74% in FY13. Post NRN entry, company had
hiked offshore wage at the rate of 8% and overseas at 3%. We expect that company’s
management could decide for wage hike across onsite as well as offshore to enhance its
utilization rate in near term.
View and Valuation: Infosys seems to be on its way to rediscovering its past mojo with
revenue momentum kicking, and the NRN invisible hand in play. Further announcement
of strategic acquisitions, better utilization of cash balances, better deal win, consistent
client traction and revenue momentum would help the company to bridge the gap with
rivals such as TCS.
On an ongoing basis, Infosys will retain its revenue acceleration and margin expansion,
also operating metrics will turn into greenery from hay. Upgradation of earning
guidance by management hinted to join the party to enjoy with 12-14% earnings
growth for FY14E like other top bellwether. At a CMP of Rs 3793, it trades at 17.4x
FY15E earnings. We retain our “BUY” view on the stock with a target price of target
price of Rs 3910 .
Rs, Crore
Financials
3QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY13
(YoY)-%
(QoQ)-%
Revenue
13026
12965
10424
25.0
0.47
EBITDA
3258.9
2836.9
2677
21.7
14.88
PAT
2874.9
2406.9
2369
21.4
19.44
EBITDA Margin
25.0%
21.9%
310bps
25.7%
(70bps)
PAT Margin
22.1%
18.6%
350bps
22.7%
(60bps)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
14
15. Infosys.
Employee cost on sales-%
Employee cost on sales at all time high
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Total Employee and additions,
Looking to bring in about maximum 6,000
off-campus offers, Infosys will hire up to
16,000 engineers next year.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Headcount Metrics:
Its attrition increased to 18% from
17.3%(2QFY14) on LTM basis, however
on sequentially basis they have been able
to control its attrition. we hope that the
further salary hikes across the board will
bring down the attrition levels going
forward.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Utilization:
The Company's Utilization is likely to
keep inching up, which could lead to
margin expansion for a couple of
quarters and that is going to be a huge
positive for Infosys as a company.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
15
16. Infosys.
Key facts from Management Interview;
■ Management upgraded its earning guidance for FY14E from 9-10% to 11.5-12%. This
guidnace means the company only has to achieve flat growth in the fourth quarter to
meet the projection.
■ With 85% of the company’s revenues coming from clients based in US and Europe, the
company should hope the current economic recovery in developed countries would help
its revenues.
■They are seeing confidence coming back from client’s metrics. However, they expect
[their] budgets only remain stable from last year. Clients are still focused on cost.
■ The Company is looking to bring in about maximum 6,000 off-campus offers starting
late January early February, so there is a lot of activity going on that is bringing people in,
engaging and developing.
Financials
Rs in Cr,
Sales, INR
Employee Cost
Other expenses
Total Expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation
Other Income
EBIT
Interest Cost
PBT
Tax
PAT
Growth-%
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
Margin -%
EBITDA
EBIT
PAT
Expenses on Sales-%
Employee Cost
Other expenses
Tax rate
Valuation
CMP
No of Share
NW
EPS
BVPS
RoE-%
Dividen Payout ratio
P/BV
P/E
FY10
22742
12085
2792
14877
7865
905
982
7942
0
7942
1681
6261
FY11
27501
14856
3677
18533
8968
854
1211
9325
0
9325
2490
6835
FY12
33734
18340
4671
23011
10723
928
1904
11699
0
11699
3367
8332
FY13
40352
22565
6254
28819
11533
1099
2365
12799
0
12799
3370
9429
FY14E
50330
28185
8556
36741
13589
1371
2567
14785
0
14785
3992
10793
FY15E
59631
33691
10734
44425
15206
1624
3578
17160
0
17160
4633
12527
4.8%
9.3%
4.6%
20.9%
14.0%
9.2%
22.7%
19.6%
21.9%
19.6%
7.6%
13.2%
24.7%
17.8%
14.5%
18.5%
11.9%
16.1%
34.6%
34.9%
27.5%
32.6%
33.9%
24.9%
31.8%
34.7%
24.7%
28.6%
31.7%
23.4%
27.0%
29.4%
21.4%
25.5%
28.8%
21.0%
53.1%
12.3%
21.2%
54.0%
13.4%
26.7%
54.4%
13.8%
28.8%
55.9%
15.5%
26.3%
56.0%
17.0%
27.0%
56.5%
18.0%
27.0%
2615
57.4
23049.0
109.1
401.7
27.2%
25.1%
6.5
24.0
2765
57.4
25976.0
119.0
452.4
26.3%
45.9%
6.1
23.2
2865
57.4
31332.0
145.1
545.6
26.6%
24.0%
5.3
19.7
2400
57.4
37994.0
164.2
661.7
24.8%
45.1%
3.6
14.6
3793
57.4
45629.8
188.0
794.7
23.7%
23.0%
4.8
20.2
3793
57.4
54797.5
218.2
954.3
22.9%
19.8%
4.0
17.4
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
16
17. Powergrid..
Update
BUY
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
95
118
NA
25%
NA
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
532898
POWERGRID
1yr
9.5
3.8
YTD
8.1
4.0
Strong Capitalization : Power Grid’s adjusted PAT increased 4.3% YoY to Rs. 1,043 crore
in Q3FY14 While asset capitalisation was below estimate Rs. 3050 crore, PGCIL
commissioned another Rs. 3450 crore in January 2014 taking overall capitalisation to Rs.
13000 crore YTDFY14.
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
3QFY14
57.9
25.4
8.6
8.2
Overall revenues increased 9.6% YoY to Rs.3685 crore due to lower than anticipated
capitalisation (Rs.3050 crore) in Q3FY14 . Income increased 6.5%, 10.0% and 121.9% YoY
in transmission, telecom and consultancy income, respectively. Other income declined
9.7% YoY to Rs.116 crore as cash was deployed across various upcoming projects.
Margins declined 336 bps YoY to 87.4% due to 55.7% YoY rise in transmission & other
expenses to Rs.333 crore. Tax expenses increased 7.5% YoY to Rs. 399 crore. Q3FY13
included a one-time income of Rs.167 crore as wage revision benefit. Adjusting the same,
PAT increased 4.3% YoY to Rs.1,043 crore.
The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) issued the final tariff regulations for
the period FY15-19 – these regulations form the basis of Power Grid’s earnings (regulated
returns) from its core transmission business over the next five years.The Key take aways
of these Regulations are Normative TAF (NATAF) for incentives lowered; no incentive for
TAF >99.75% .Normative O&M charges raised (vs. draft), but still below FY14 levels.
Stock Performance-%
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
3rd march' 14
116/87
49490
22270
6277
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
Nifty
1M
8.2
9.5
"Buy"
2QFY14 1QFY14
57.9
69.4
19.4
14.7
8.8
7.6
13.9
8.3
1 yr Forward P/B
Capitalisation of assets remains on track. Till Jan end the company has capitalised Rs
118bn of assets which is 70% of our full year estimate. Since last two months of the year
usually account for the bulk of yearly commissioning we are confident that the co. will meet
our estimate of Rs 170bn for FY14.
Power Grid's Raichur-Solapur line has been connected to national grid. Management Says
there were four trippings in the first week. Two were to increase reliability and were
done intentionally, and the other two were because of a few glitches. For the last month
there has been no tripping.
View & Recommendation
With equity dilution overhang on the stock is removed, so we expect the stock price will
drive by purely on its fundamentals, on our estimates we maintain a positive fundamental
outlook for Power grid. Also, govt. stake coming down to 58% is a positive, as risk of
further equity dilution is reduced
The stock is trading at 1.7x FY15E BVPS. We estimate to Power grid stock to trade at 1.8x
BVPS. Valuation is very reasonable for a business model with RoE (16%), strong growth
visibility and minimal operational risks. We valued stock for a 12 month period at a target
price of Rs.118.
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Financials :
Revenue
EBIDTA
Net Profit
EBIDTA%
NPM%
Q3FY14
3685
3105
988
84
27
Y-o-Y %
9.4
6.0
-8.5
-3.1
-16.3
Q-o-Q %
-7.9
-8.4
-16.9
-0.6
-9.8
Q3FY13
3369
2930
1080
87
32
Q2FY14
3999
3389
1189
85
30
(In Crs)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
17
18. N arnolia Securities Ltd
402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lord s Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph
033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000
em ail: research@narnolia.com ,
w ebsite : w w w .narnolia.com
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