The document provides analysis of the Indian stock market and recommends keeping technical analysis simple. It summarizes several charts showing correlations between indexes like Sensex, Nifty, and indicators like RSI and India VIX. The analysis finds that indexes often form short-term bottoms when RSI reaches certain levels. It also finds indexes tend to bottom when India VIX is between 30-40. Finally, it analyzes a dollar-based index for Sensex and believes further recovery may occur if a support level holds. The overall outlook is positive with potential for sharp rallies in indexes in the coming months.

1. INDIAN MARKET OUTLOOK !!!
Dear all whatever I am going to write below is what I learnt from my mentor/guru
in my entire journey in stock market till now, what I learnt is to always keep things
in simple way when it comes to Technical Analysis.
I always avoid getting into too much complicated studies which are specifically
designed for other countries/indices. When one can make good money only by
simple analysis, then why to get ourselves involved in such complicated studies.
Below I am posting few charts which are simple and effective way to catch
important bottoms and also to make some good money.
SENSEX and RSI Co-Relation
From the above chart we can clearly see that whenever RSI reaches into the
shaded area SENSEX forms important short term bottoms and witnessed sharp
rally from there onwards. Today also RSI entered in the same zone and Sensex
bounced back strongly from there.

2. NIFTY Weekly chart and RSI Co-Relation
In the above chart we can clearly see whenever RSI comes in between 45-35 zone
it has made important bottoms, today also RSI came inside the above mentioned
zone and Nifty bounced back sharply from lows.
Only on one incident of 2008 RSI went below this range, in all other incident long
term bottoms being formed between this range only.
We may consolidate for next 1-4 weeks and then there are higher chances of
Nifty/Sensex giving sharp rally into new territory.
Now we will go into some other charts too through which we can easily gauge the
mood/sentiment of market.

3. SENSEX and INDIA VIX Co-Relation
India VIX also plays very important role to gauge the sentiments of market
participants. Since the inception of VIX in india majority it has traded below 40
levels except the late 2008 to early 2009 period when global crisis was going on
and Sensex and Nifty witnessed almost 63% price erosion.
Now in the above chart if we exclude the 2008-2009 period then major bottoms
post 2010 being made whenever VIX entered between 30-40 zone (highlighted
with arrows).
Today also INDIA VIX entered between 30-40 zone and made high at 35.57 and
then cooled off and closed at 26 levels which is well below above mentioned
zone.

4. DOLLEX-30 Index
The above chart is of Dollex 30 which is Sensex in dollar term. In the above chart
we can clearly see that dollex 30 retested today almost the Election Day breakout
levels around 3100 and from there it has witnessed sharp recovery in it.
If a level of 3100 holds then we may see some sharp rally in next few months up
to 3700 odd levels.
Disclosure – Have vested interests and invested in markets with longs so my views can be
biased. Do your own research and risk management.
“There is always room for improvement”.
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Regards
Ameeth Vorra