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INDIA PRE-OWNED CAR MARKET REPORT
1st Edition (2016)
1st Edition (2016)
India Pre-Owned Car Market Report
FOREWORD
The Indian pre-owned vehicle industry, though nascent in
development, is rapidly achieving scale. With India expected to
be amongst the Top 5 automotive markets in the world, the
pre-owned vehicle ecosystem is going to be an important
segment of the overall economy, and an important factor in
how the automotive industry and also the overall economy
evolves.
A pre-owned vehicle - in most parts of the world - satisfies one
of the most important family aspirations - ownership of the
first car. We see India evolving similarly, but great strides have
to be made to enable a good buyer & seller experience.
Buyer-seller trust deficit levels are still very high, with relatively
low levels of consumer protection.
The industry IS changing as it grows. The industry is getting
more organized and also being enabled with technology.
However, little is specifically understood about the industry
due to severe paucity of data – either from private or public
sources. Hitherto, it has been extremely difficult to even
establish industry volumes at any level of detail with a high
degree of confidence.
This Year's Report
This report is the result of a collective effort by the
IndianBlueBook (www.indianbluebook.com) team and its
partners in India and globally. It has leveraged India’s largest
footprint “on the ground” via the Mahindra First Choice
Wheels Ltd. franchise network and significant presence “in the
cloud” with a suite of industry leading online properties
including but not limited to IndianBlueBook and eDiig. We
believe the analysis is seminal in nature and attempts to
“connect the dots” better than any report to date both in scope
and detail. With this publication being the first of ongoing
future editions, there is a special section that looks at the
Indian market in the context of two other (important) global
markets – the U.S. and China.
Over the last 24 months, the pre-owned vehicle industry has
been the subject of much attention from a variety of industry
stakeholders – Investors, OEMs, Dealers, Financial Institutions
and Consumers. This report should be useful to all
stakeholders in assessing the Indian pre-owned vehicle
industry both domestically and in the global context.
Nagi Palle
MD & CEO
Mahindra First Choice Wheels Ltd.
Summary Insights 1-6
India, China, U.S. Compared
Motorization Levels And Car Parc 7
New And Pre-owned Car Market Sizes 8
Stage Of Development 9
Defining Dealer Segments 10
Scale Of Dealer Networks 11
Dealer Segment Penetration In Pre-owned Cars 12
Productivity Of Dealer Networks 13
Dealer Economics 14-15
A Few Other Market Considerations 16
Pre-Owned Car Market In India
Four Major Market Segments 17
Dealer Footprint 18
Dealer Productivity 19
Geographic Overview 20-21
Pre-owned Car Finance Penetration 22
Pre-owned Car Financing 23
Pre-owned Car Value Chain: Journey 24
Characterized By Transactional Friction
People Online 25
Automotive Traffic Online 26
Pre-Owned Car And Consumer Profile
Profile Of A Typical Pre-owned Car 27
A Look At Fuel Composition & Car Segments 28
Consumer Insights 29
IBB Index: Relative Pre-owned Vehicle Pricing 30
A Word About Wholesale Markets 31
Sources 32
Summary Insights
IndianBlueBook
1 2
A MULTI-FACETED INDIAN PRE-OWNED CAR INDUSTRY SCALE: Reached cri�cal mass, significant poten�al
MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
& CHALLENGES
SCALE STAGE
STRUCTURE
India is expected to be amongst
the top 5 automotive markets in
the world by 2020
The North zone (36%) represents the largest geography followed by
the West (27%), South (26%) and East zones (11%)
India’s internet population at 277 million is ahead of the U.S.
(270 million) and behind China (668 million).
India has amongst the highest number of people online and offline
At 3.3 million units, the
pre-owned car market is growing
at over 15% a year (organized
segment growing at 25%+ per year)
Just under half of all pre-owned
cars sold are in metros
Nearly 30,000 dealers engage
in pre-owned car sales
TOP 5
automotive markets 15%+per year
NORTH 30,000dealersleads the pre-owned car
market in India
277
million people online
sold in metros
45%
IndianBlueBook
3 4
80%
STRUCTURE: Largely unorganized retail & wholesale STAGE: Pre-owned car market is developed in some ways, nascent in many
Pre-owned car channels are highly fragmented, with four primary market segments
The unorganized sector
accounts for the bulk of the
dealer population (58%) and
19% of the total volume
SUPPLY CHALLENGED: There are no formal wholesale channels for dealers to procure cars
Repossessions account for of wholesale market
Unlike mature markets,
India’s market is supply
constrained, with
inventory turns at dealers
under 30 days
SUPPLY
CONSTRAINED
In India, a dealer’s license is not required to retail used cars.
Pre-owned car markets are local in nature with significant paperwork
challenges and bureaucracy associated with car ownership moving
across state lines
Like the U.S., India’s pre-owned car market is larger than its
new car market. China’s pre-owned car market less evolved
compared to that of India at 0.5 times that of the new car
market
U.S. motorization rate is over 800 cars/1000 people and its car parc
is 10X that of India
Unlike the U.S., India is highly
unorganized, but more
organized than China
more organized
than China
INDIAORGANIZED SEMI-ORGANIZED
CONSUMER TO
CONSUMER
UNORGANIZED
Average volume at
market share
12%
16 per month
Average volume at
market share
<3 per month
Average volume at
market share
9 per month
35%
19%
market share
34%
The unorganized sector is
HIGHLY
FRAGMENTED
Pre-owned car market is
vs. traditionally 60+ days
in the U.S.
22 CARS/1000 PEOPLE
India’s motorization rate lies at
that of new car market
Pre-owned car market in India 1.2X
Unorganized sector
dominates supporting services
Paper transfer
Finance/Insurance
IndianBlueBookPROFILING THE AVERAGE PRE-OWNED CAR & ITS CUSTOMER
Average age at the
time of sale is 4 years
Average ticket
size is `3-4 lakhs
Consumers are browsers
online, but buyers offline
For more than half, a pre-owned car
is the first in the family
Average number of
prior owners is 1
Average mileage
is 45,000-50,000 kms
50% of buyers are in the
25-34 years age segment
Affordability, followed by value for money–primary reasons why customers consider pre-owned cars
E F
STAGE: Pre-owned car market is developed in some ways, nascent in many
The internet is increasingly becoming a major source
of information for consumers. However, internet
infrastructure remains poor with significant room for
development
Dealer productivity and gross margins make
India a relatively shallow market
(dealer economics)
Not far behind the U.S., much further ahead
of China (66 months)
48 MONTHS
Metros have a higher share of pre-owned car finance
(58%) relative to non-metros. Organized sector is
most efficient for generating loans.
There are over 6,000 approved NBFCs in local
markets that are funding pre-owned vehicles in India
Pre-owned car finance penetration
UNDER 15%
LOWEST AVERAGE
INTERNET SPEED
IN APAC
Length of car ownership atSCALE AND
PRICE POINT
are major drivers
5 6
India, China, U.S. Compared
IndianBlueBook
Vehicle car parc (million units)
Motorization rate (cars per 1000 people)
India China
U.S.ChinaIndia
25014025
U.S.
22 113 809
Motorization: global rankings
New car market size-2015 (million units)
New car market size
Pre-owned car market size-2015
(million units)
17.5M
21.1M
2.8M
38.3M
10M
3.3M
Pre-owned car market size
U.S.ChinaIndia
U.S.ChinaIndia
Indian market is still nascent,
with significant headroom
for growth
China is the largest new car market in the world
followed by the U.S.
U.S., a very mature pre-owned car market, is
10X
the size of india
However, the Indian pre-owned car
market is amongst the fastest growing at
MOTORIZATION LEVELS AND CAR PARC NEW AND PRE-OWNED CAR MARKET SIZES
U.S.
China
India
15%+ per year
TOP 5
Currently ranked 6th, India is expected to be
amongst the
#4
# 98
# 160
automotive markets
by 2020
7 8
IndianBlueBook
Length of ownership
Replacement cycle (in years)
India China U.S.
India China U.S.
4 5.5 3.5
Unlike the pre-owned car markets in the U.S.
and India, the Chinese pre-owned car market is
smaller than its new car market
Indian pre-owned car market is more evolved
than the Chinese market
Pre-owned vehicles : new vehicles ratio
New/Pre-owned vehicle sales volumes
(as % car parc)
2.2
0.5
1.2
India China U.S.
15%
13%
7%
11%
15%
7%
New car sales/car parc ratios indicate growing
motorization in China and India
Pre-owned car sales/car parc ratios indicate
maturity of market with India showing greater
churn vs. China
New car/car parc Pre-owned car/car parc
STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT
二手车
Franchise dealers
Independent dealers
Franchise dealersOrganized dealers
Semi-organized dealers
Unorganized dealers
Unorganized dealers
DEFINING DEALER SEGMENTS
Nascent
IndiaChina U.S.
Mature
Dealer maturity scale
9 1 0
IndianBlueBook
China and India highly unorganized markets for pre-owned cars; however, India is more organized than China
*Unorganized segment is probably a bit underrepresented given that not all unorganized dealers are perhaps ‘active’ every month. Often, multiple
unorganized brokers are involved in a single transaction
Organized dealers represent the minority of pre-owned vehicles
sold in China and India indicative of still evolving markets
Semi-organized dealers
India*
Organized dealers
Unorganized dealers
2,110
10,500
5,000
17,310
Franchise dealers
Independent dealers
U.S.
19,360 19,360
36,000
Unorganized dealers
China
Franchise dealers
Semi-organized dealers
Organized dealers
Unorganized dealers
Franchise dealers
Independent dealersUnorganized dealers
Franchise dealers
17,580
10,550
116,130 46%
54%
U.S.
73%
27%
China
19%
29%
52%
India
Volume of pre-owned vehicles
sold per dealer
per year
U.S.: 533
China: 75
India: 71
SCALE OF DEALER NETWORKS DEALER SEGMENT PENETRATION IN PRE-OWNED CARS
Number of dealers by segment Share of cars sold across dealer segments
Unlike the U.S., most Indian and Chinese new car
dealers don’t engage in pre-owned car retail
U.S. has a very well-organized
automotive retail network
New car Pre-owned car New car Pre-owned car New car Pre-owned car
1 1 1 2
IndianBlueBook
India
New Car Pre-owned car
47
16
9
<3
China
New Car Pre-owned car
100
20
5
U.S.
New Car Pre-owned car
75
69
31
The average price of a pre-owned car sold is lower than in other markets
$11,500
$5,500
$15,000
$9,000
$33,420
$19,400
New car Pre-owned car
U.S.ChinaIndia
Average ticket size for franchise/organized dealers (USD)
Number of vehicles sold per dealer per month
India amongst the “leanest” automotive markets in the world,
with 60% of all new cars sold under $12,000
PRODUCTIVITY OF DEALER NETWORKS DEALER ECONOMICS - PART 1
vs. India2x
New car productivity
is highest in China
Organized dealer networks are key to improve productivity across all markets
Semi-organized dealers
Organized dealers
Unorganized dealers
Franchise dealers
Independent dealersUnorganized dealers
Franchise dealers
Organized dealer productivity is
highest in U.S.
3.5X vs. China
4X vs. India
1 3 1 4
IndianBlueBook
Additionally, high real estate and
capital costs in India pull down
dealer disposable income
Prior ownership is a significant driver of pre-owned vehicle prices in India–often leading to delayed
re-registration of vehicles upon change in ownership
$26,630
$2,520
$78,000
$2,250
$249,820
$34,380
Organized dealers / Franchise dealers Independent / Semi-organized / Unorganized dealers
U.S.ChinaIndia
U.S.ChinaIndia
Total gross margin per month - average dealers (USD)
Estimated auto finance penetration - new and pre-owned (%)
60%23.6%38.5%
Doesadealerneedalicensetoretail pre-owned cars?
DEALER ECONOMICS - PART 2 A FEW OTHER MARKET CONSIDERATIONS
Organized dealers in India make 9x
monthly gross margin vs. unorganized dealers
9x
High ticket prices and a highly organized U.S. market affords a typical dealer
with significantly higher monthly gross margins compared to India and China
U.S.ChinaIndia
Yes YesNo
Vehicles cannot move across
state lines in India without
significant registration issues
and expense
In order to ease inter city and inter provincial
sales in pre-owned cars, China State Council
introduced new guidance (effective 31st May, 2016)
1 5 1 6
Pre-Owned Car Market In India
IndianBlueBook
17 18
FOUR MAJOR MARKET SEGMENTS DEALER FOOTPRINT
12%
35%
34%
45%
35%58%
7%
55%
19%
Pre-owned car market in India
Share of metros vs non-metros
Types of dealers across India
Semi-organized dealersOrganized dealers
Non-metros Metros
Unorganized dealers C2C
Semi-organized dealersOrganized dealers
Unorganized dealers
Dealer count across metros and non-metros
Organized Semi-organized Unorganized
10750
29,920
1310
6520
800
3980
6560
Metros Non-metros Total
Total
Indian market largely unorganized with
consumer to consumer transactions
making up a third of all pre-owned car
transactions
Non-metros account for over half the
pre-owned car volume sold and are
growing faster than the metros
Metros comprise 38% of the dealer
network. Non-metros make up the balance,
however, highly fragmented in nature
25% a year
Organized segment is
growing at over
IndianBlueBook
Organized Semi-organized Unorganized
Metros Non-metros
Organized dealer networks are significantly more productive than the unorganized
DEALER PRODUCTIVITY GEOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW - PART 1
6
16 <39
In India, on an average a dealer sells cars per month
19
14
10
8
<4 <3
Average volume per dealer per month across segments - Pan India
Average volume per dealer per month across metros and non-metros
Semi-organized dealersOrganized dealers Unorganized dealers
Tripura
Jammu & Kashmir
Himachal
Pradesh
Uttaranchal
Punjab
Haryana
Delhi/NCR
Uttar Pradesh
Rajasthan
Gujarat Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Goa
Karnataka
Tamil Nadu
Kerala
Pondicherry
Andhra
Pradesh
Odisha
Jharkhand
Bihar
Sikkim
Assam
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Manipur
Nagaland
Arunachal
Pradesh
West
Bengal
Chhattisgarh
<5000
5001-10000
10001-15000
15001-20000
20001-25000
25001-30000
30001-35000
35001-40000
North & West zones account for over 60% of all
pre-owned car volume sold, with the East zone
being significantly smaller than the other zones
East – 10.8%West– 27.4%
North – 35.5%
South – 26.3%
Share of total volume by zone (%) Volume per month by state
19 20
IndianBlueBook
The organized channel originates approximately half
of pre-owned car loans, enabled by more robust
processes and transparency.
Financing is primarily dealer originated. C2C
transactions predominantly happen via cash
Finance penetration is significantly higher within
the organized channel.
The semi-/unorganized channel is highly
fragmented with higher channel costs for
lenders
Semi-organized/Unorganized dealers
Organized dealers
Semi-organized/Unorganized dealers
Organized dealers
Metros Non-metros
40%
6%
40%
18%54%46%
GEOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW - PART 2 Share of organized and semi-/unorganized segments
Share of total volume by zone (%)
Organized Semi-organized & Unorganized
North & West exhibit more organized channels than the South. East, while more organized, is a
significantly smaller market and also highly concentrated in a few areas
North – 40%
South – 17%
West– 29% East – 14% West– 27% East – 10%
North – 34.5%
South – 28.5%
PRE-OWNED CAR FINANCE PENETRATION
Share of pre-owned car finance by dealer segment Organized and unorganized
penetration across India
21 22
IndianBlueBook
Non-metrosMetros
58% 42%
PRE-OWNED CAR FINANCING
Auto financing penetration - India Share of pre-owned car finance
Pre-owned car New car
15%
(Approximately)
65%
$$$$$$`
$$$$$$`
$$$$$$$$$`
$$$$$$$`$$$$$$$$$$$`
Approximately 150,000 new cars and 30,000
pre-owned cars are financed monthly
Pre-owned car interest rates are 4.5%- 6.5% higher than for new cars
In addition to the larger players, there are more than 6,000 approved NBFCs
that are funding pre-owned vehicles in India
Average LTV is between 75%-80%; the average disbursement is `3 lakhs
There is significant headroom for pre-owned car financing, with growth expected in the coming years
vs. pre-owned car
5X
23 24
PRE-OWNED CAR VALUE CHAIN: Journey characterized by transac�onal fric�on
Compare cars
Check reviews
Price check
Locate inventory online
InspectSeller Test drive Negotiate ServicingTrade-In Purchase
WarrantyAnnual
maintenance
contract
Accessories Paper work Finance Insurance
Online
Decision
to buy
Offline
`
Classifieds
People research in the CLOUD
but transact on the GROUND
IndianBlueBookPEOPLE ONLINE AUTOMOTIVE TRAFFIC ONLINE
Total visitors per month
(major auto portals - as reported) - in millions
Total visitors per car sold per monthInternet Penetration Internet connection speeds (mbps) - Q4 2015
85%49%22%
U.S.ChinaIndia
4.1
26.7
2.8
21.2
14.2
61.5
22.487.9
Average speed Average peak speed
India China U.S.
India China U.S. India China U.S.
India has amongst the highest number of
people online and offline
India has the lowest average
internet speed in APAC
Enabled by mobile access, automotive
websites have driven large volume of
monthly visitors
India’s internet traffic efficiency (visitors/car sold)
is much lower than U.S. or China
277 Million 668 Million 270 Million
People online
3.1
15
4.8
25 26
Pre-Owned Car And
Consumer Profile
IndianBlueBookPROFILE OF A TYPICAL PRE-OWNED CAR A LOOK AT FUEL COMPOSITION & CAR SEGMENTS
Profile of an average
pre-owned car
Average age at time of
sale lies at 4 years-
flat through FY14-FY16
Average price
approximately `3-4 lakhs-
flat through FY14-FY16
Average number of prior
owners at 1- flat through
FY14-FY16
Average mileage (45,000-50,000 kms)
increasing over FY14-FY16,
with a greater share of vehicles
being driven over 60,000 kms
Age
Price
Mileage
Owner
Fuel composition of new car sales
Pre-owned car sales by segment
Fuel composition of pre-owned car sales
63% 52% 42% 47% 52% 56%
37% 48% 58% 53% 48% 44%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Petrol (%) Diesel (%)
87% 83% 78% 67% 64% 53%
Petrol (%) Diesel (%)
13% 17% 22% 33% 36% 47%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
A1: Mini
FY16
FY15
FY14
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
A2: Compact A3: Mid-size
A4: Executive A5: Premium UV
5%
7%
4%
48%
54%
57%
17%
19%
23%
25%
15%
11%
4% 1%
1%
1%
4%
4%
The share of utility vehicles is
increasing but small cars still
account for 80% of the
pre-owned cars sold
The pre-owned car market lags behind the new
car market. Unlike in sales of new passenger
vehicles, diesel penetration in pre-owned cars
has increased over the same period
A sudden shift in preference towards petrol vehicles
amid uncertainty over diesel
27 28
IndianBlueBook
IBB price index – prices indexed to January 2014
CONSUMER INSIGHTS IBB INDEX: RELATIVE PRE-OWNED VEHICLE PRICING
For more than half, a
the family
Affordability, followed by
value for money are primary
reasons why customers
consider pre-owned cars
> 50% of buyers are
working class
The buyer looks for a trusted
source and quality product
to complete his pre-owned
car transaction
50% of buyers are in the
25-34 years age segment
41%
4%
55%
23%
7%
5%
15%
33%
36%17%
2%1%
11%
29%
35%
9%
7%
20%
27%
38%
14%
3%
5%
13%
50%
IBB price index, which tracks relative pre-owned vehicle price changes on a monthly basis across the
country, remained flat on a month on month basis in May, 2016. Trade-in activity (for car owners aspiring
to upgrade) in the months (July - September) leading up to the festive season in 2015 resulted in a decline
in the index over this period due to the effect of supply-side dynamics. Similar expectations, coupled with
favorable fuel prices and interest rates work in favor of the price-sensitive first-time car buyer
0.94
0.95
0.98
1.09
1.06
1.04 1.05 1.05 1.05
1.07
1.01
1.00
1.05 1.05
Jun
15
Jul
15
Aug
15
Sep
15
Oct
15
Nov
15
Dec
15
Jan
16
Feb
16
Mar
16
Apr
16
Apr
15’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’
May
15
May
’16
Cut in lending
rates
Cut in lending
rates
Cut in lending
rates
Festive season
First-time buyer
Multiple car in family
Replacement buyer
Matching requirement
Good experience Others
Product quality
Good price
Trust on brand18-24 years 25-34 years
45-54 years
>54years
35-44 years
Learn driving Others
Value for moneyAffordable
2nd car in household
Worker
Others
Self-employed professional
Junior executive
Senior executive
Business-owner
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
http://www.indianbluebook.com/ibb-index
Change of year
29 30
IndianBlueBookSOURCES
‘China to promote sale of second-hand vehicles’, March 2016, The Economic Times
‘India has the largest offline population:World Bank report’, May 2016, Livemint
2016 pre-owned car Market Report, Manheim
2015 Used Vehicle Market Report, Edmunds.com
2015 China Auto Finance Report, January 2016, Deloitte
‘SC diesel car ban has pan India sales impact’, April 2016, The Economic Times
‘India car sales grow fastest since 2010-11’, April 2016, Livemint
OICA (http://www.oica.net/)
SIAM (http://www.siamindia.com/)
‘China's pre-owned car market’, January 2014, Gordon's View, Mckinsey China
2014 pre-owned car Industry Report, NIADA
2015 Annual Financial Profile of America's Franchised New-car Dealerships - NADA
‘The United States of pre-owned cars’, February 2014, The Car Connection
SimilarWeb (https://www.similarweb.com/)
‘Fourth Quarter, 2015 State of the Internet Report’, Akamai
‘Driving through the urban-pre-owned car market’, February 2016, Deloitte
‘China's new vehicle market:Prospects to 2019’, Automotive World
2016 Internet Trends Report, June 2016, Mary Meeker (KPCB)
‘China’s new guidance on second-hand car sales to impact recovery rates’, May 2016, South China Morning Post
Cox Automotive research, interviews with various financial institutions and other partners
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Wholesale market by segments
A WORD ABOUT WHOLESALE MARKETS
480,000
(80%)
120,000
(20%)
400,000
(67%)
200,000
(33%)
Others (Salvage, Fleet, Dealers)Repos UnorganizedOrganized
Repossessions account for 80% of the wholesale
market
Commercial vehicles account for
45% of the repo segment
Two-wheelers and four-wheelers
each account for approximately
20% of the repo segment
31 32
IndianBlueBook
For further information contact: support@indianbluebook.com
790 outlets
365 locations
Mahindra First Choice Wheels Franchise Dealer Footprint
(as of April 2016)
www.mahindrafirstchoice.com
www.indianbluebook.com
www.autoinspekt.com
www.ediig.com
IndianBlueBook (IBB) is the industry first pricing guide for new and pre-owned vehicle
valuation in India. With exclusive access to a large number of car transactions that take
place every day through different channels, IBB derives scientific and insightful
inferences that lead to vehicle price discovery. Whether you’re buying or selling a
vehicle, IBB helps you discover its real worth. Through various transactions on different
customer-facing and B2B channels, IBB’s analytical engine logically deduces a pricing
index which is then used to derive the benchmark market price of any vehicle. In
essence, IBB is a one-of-a-kind valuation platform based on rigorous research and pure
rationality. It is driven by the sheer passion to demystify the data points of a million
transactions, thus ensuring that you never overpay or never undersell. IBB offers a wide
array of tools such as Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) and residual value analysis,
regularly updated reviews and insights via its blog, and a platform that enables its
customers to buy and sell vehicles, thereby serving as a one-stop shop for customers
looking to research vehicles.
About IndianBlueBook

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India Pre-owned Car Market Report - 1st Edition (2016)

  • 1. ONE WAY BROODWAY ` INDIA PRE-OWNED CAR MARKET REPORT 1st Edition (2016)
  • 2. 1st Edition (2016) India Pre-Owned Car Market Report
  • 3. FOREWORD The Indian pre-owned vehicle industry, though nascent in development, is rapidly achieving scale. With India expected to be amongst the Top 5 automotive markets in the world, the pre-owned vehicle ecosystem is going to be an important segment of the overall economy, and an important factor in how the automotive industry and also the overall economy evolves. A pre-owned vehicle - in most parts of the world - satisfies one of the most important family aspirations - ownership of the first car. We see India evolving similarly, but great strides have to be made to enable a good buyer & seller experience. Buyer-seller trust deficit levels are still very high, with relatively low levels of consumer protection. The industry IS changing as it grows. The industry is getting more organized and also being enabled with technology. However, little is specifically understood about the industry due to severe paucity of data – either from private or public sources. Hitherto, it has been extremely difficult to even establish industry volumes at any level of detail with a high degree of confidence. This Year's Report This report is the result of a collective effort by the IndianBlueBook (www.indianbluebook.com) team and its partners in India and globally. It has leveraged India’s largest footprint “on the ground” via the Mahindra First Choice Wheels Ltd. franchise network and significant presence “in the cloud” with a suite of industry leading online properties including but not limited to IndianBlueBook and eDiig. We believe the analysis is seminal in nature and attempts to “connect the dots” better than any report to date both in scope and detail. With this publication being the first of ongoing future editions, there is a special section that looks at the Indian market in the context of two other (important) global markets – the U.S. and China. Over the last 24 months, the pre-owned vehicle industry has been the subject of much attention from a variety of industry stakeholders – Investors, OEMs, Dealers, Financial Institutions and Consumers. This report should be useful to all stakeholders in assessing the Indian pre-owned vehicle industry both domestically and in the global context. Nagi Palle MD & CEO Mahindra First Choice Wheels Ltd. Summary Insights 1-6 India, China, U.S. Compared Motorization Levels And Car Parc 7 New And Pre-owned Car Market Sizes 8 Stage Of Development 9 Defining Dealer Segments 10 Scale Of Dealer Networks 11 Dealer Segment Penetration In Pre-owned Cars 12 Productivity Of Dealer Networks 13 Dealer Economics 14-15 A Few Other Market Considerations 16 Pre-Owned Car Market In India Four Major Market Segments 17 Dealer Footprint 18 Dealer Productivity 19 Geographic Overview 20-21 Pre-owned Car Finance Penetration 22 Pre-owned Car Financing 23 Pre-owned Car Value Chain: Journey 24 Characterized By Transactional Friction People Online 25 Automotive Traffic Online 26 Pre-Owned Car And Consumer Profile Profile Of A Typical Pre-owned Car 27 A Look At Fuel Composition & Car Segments 28 Consumer Insights 29 IBB Index: Relative Pre-owned Vehicle Pricing 30 A Word About Wholesale Markets 31 Sources 32
  • 5. IndianBlueBook 1 2 A MULTI-FACETED INDIAN PRE-OWNED CAR INDUSTRY SCALE: Reached cri�cal mass, significant poten�al MARKET OPPORTUNITIES & CHALLENGES SCALE STAGE STRUCTURE India is expected to be amongst the top 5 automotive markets in the world by 2020 The North zone (36%) represents the largest geography followed by the West (27%), South (26%) and East zones (11%) India’s internet population at 277 million is ahead of the U.S. (270 million) and behind China (668 million). India has amongst the highest number of people online and offline At 3.3 million units, the pre-owned car market is growing at over 15% a year (organized segment growing at 25%+ per year) Just under half of all pre-owned cars sold are in metros Nearly 30,000 dealers engage in pre-owned car sales TOP 5 automotive markets 15%+per year NORTH 30,000dealersleads the pre-owned car market in India 277 million people online sold in metros 45%
  • 6. IndianBlueBook 3 4 80% STRUCTURE: Largely unorganized retail & wholesale STAGE: Pre-owned car market is developed in some ways, nascent in many Pre-owned car channels are highly fragmented, with four primary market segments The unorganized sector accounts for the bulk of the dealer population (58%) and 19% of the total volume SUPPLY CHALLENGED: There are no formal wholesale channels for dealers to procure cars Repossessions account for of wholesale market Unlike mature markets, India’s market is supply constrained, with inventory turns at dealers under 30 days SUPPLY CONSTRAINED In India, a dealer’s license is not required to retail used cars. Pre-owned car markets are local in nature with significant paperwork challenges and bureaucracy associated with car ownership moving across state lines Like the U.S., India’s pre-owned car market is larger than its new car market. China’s pre-owned car market less evolved compared to that of India at 0.5 times that of the new car market U.S. motorization rate is over 800 cars/1000 people and its car parc is 10X that of India Unlike the U.S., India is highly unorganized, but more organized than China more organized than China INDIAORGANIZED SEMI-ORGANIZED CONSUMER TO CONSUMER UNORGANIZED Average volume at market share 12% 16 per month Average volume at market share <3 per month Average volume at market share 9 per month 35% 19% market share 34% The unorganized sector is HIGHLY FRAGMENTED Pre-owned car market is vs. traditionally 60+ days in the U.S. 22 CARS/1000 PEOPLE India’s motorization rate lies at that of new car market Pre-owned car market in India 1.2X Unorganized sector dominates supporting services Paper transfer Finance/Insurance
  • 7. IndianBlueBookPROFILING THE AVERAGE PRE-OWNED CAR & ITS CUSTOMER Average age at the time of sale is 4 years Average ticket size is `3-4 lakhs Consumers are browsers online, but buyers offline For more than half, a pre-owned car is the first in the family Average number of prior owners is 1 Average mileage is 45,000-50,000 kms 50% of buyers are in the 25-34 years age segment Affordability, followed by value for money–primary reasons why customers consider pre-owned cars E F STAGE: Pre-owned car market is developed in some ways, nascent in many The internet is increasingly becoming a major source of information for consumers. However, internet infrastructure remains poor with significant room for development Dealer productivity and gross margins make India a relatively shallow market (dealer economics) Not far behind the U.S., much further ahead of China (66 months) 48 MONTHS Metros have a higher share of pre-owned car finance (58%) relative to non-metros. Organized sector is most efficient for generating loans. There are over 6,000 approved NBFCs in local markets that are funding pre-owned vehicles in India Pre-owned car finance penetration UNDER 15% LOWEST AVERAGE INTERNET SPEED IN APAC Length of car ownership atSCALE AND PRICE POINT are major drivers 5 6
  • 9. IndianBlueBook Vehicle car parc (million units) Motorization rate (cars per 1000 people) India China U.S.ChinaIndia 25014025 U.S. 22 113 809 Motorization: global rankings New car market size-2015 (million units) New car market size Pre-owned car market size-2015 (million units) 17.5M 21.1M 2.8M 38.3M 10M 3.3M Pre-owned car market size U.S.ChinaIndia U.S.ChinaIndia Indian market is still nascent, with significant headroom for growth China is the largest new car market in the world followed by the U.S. U.S., a very mature pre-owned car market, is 10X the size of india However, the Indian pre-owned car market is amongst the fastest growing at MOTORIZATION LEVELS AND CAR PARC NEW AND PRE-OWNED CAR MARKET SIZES U.S. China India 15%+ per year TOP 5 Currently ranked 6th, India is expected to be amongst the #4 # 98 # 160 automotive markets by 2020 7 8
  • 10. IndianBlueBook Length of ownership Replacement cycle (in years) India China U.S. India China U.S. 4 5.5 3.5 Unlike the pre-owned car markets in the U.S. and India, the Chinese pre-owned car market is smaller than its new car market Indian pre-owned car market is more evolved than the Chinese market Pre-owned vehicles : new vehicles ratio New/Pre-owned vehicle sales volumes (as % car parc) 2.2 0.5 1.2 India China U.S. 15% 13% 7% 11% 15% 7% New car sales/car parc ratios indicate growing motorization in China and India Pre-owned car sales/car parc ratios indicate maturity of market with India showing greater churn vs. China New car/car parc Pre-owned car/car parc STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT 二手车 Franchise dealers Independent dealers Franchise dealersOrganized dealers Semi-organized dealers Unorganized dealers Unorganized dealers DEFINING DEALER SEGMENTS Nascent IndiaChina U.S. Mature Dealer maturity scale 9 1 0
  • 11. IndianBlueBook China and India highly unorganized markets for pre-owned cars; however, India is more organized than China *Unorganized segment is probably a bit underrepresented given that not all unorganized dealers are perhaps ‘active’ every month. Often, multiple unorganized brokers are involved in a single transaction Organized dealers represent the minority of pre-owned vehicles sold in China and India indicative of still evolving markets Semi-organized dealers India* Organized dealers Unorganized dealers 2,110 10,500 5,000 17,310 Franchise dealers Independent dealers U.S. 19,360 19,360 36,000 Unorganized dealers China Franchise dealers Semi-organized dealers Organized dealers Unorganized dealers Franchise dealers Independent dealersUnorganized dealers Franchise dealers 17,580 10,550 116,130 46% 54% U.S. 73% 27% China 19% 29% 52% India Volume of pre-owned vehicles sold per dealer per year U.S.: 533 China: 75 India: 71 SCALE OF DEALER NETWORKS DEALER SEGMENT PENETRATION IN PRE-OWNED CARS Number of dealers by segment Share of cars sold across dealer segments Unlike the U.S., most Indian and Chinese new car dealers don’t engage in pre-owned car retail U.S. has a very well-organized automotive retail network New car Pre-owned car New car Pre-owned car New car Pre-owned car 1 1 1 2
  • 12. IndianBlueBook India New Car Pre-owned car 47 16 9 <3 China New Car Pre-owned car 100 20 5 U.S. New Car Pre-owned car 75 69 31 The average price of a pre-owned car sold is lower than in other markets $11,500 $5,500 $15,000 $9,000 $33,420 $19,400 New car Pre-owned car U.S.ChinaIndia Average ticket size for franchise/organized dealers (USD) Number of vehicles sold per dealer per month India amongst the “leanest” automotive markets in the world, with 60% of all new cars sold under $12,000 PRODUCTIVITY OF DEALER NETWORKS DEALER ECONOMICS - PART 1 vs. India2x New car productivity is highest in China Organized dealer networks are key to improve productivity across all markets Semi-organized dealers Organized dealers Unorganized dealers Franchise dealers Independent dealersUnorganized dealers Franchise dealers Organized dealer productivity is highest in U.S. 3.5X vs. China 4X vs. India 1 3 1 4
  • 13. IndianBlueBook Additionally, high real estate and capital costs in India pull down dealer disposable income Prior ownership is a significant driver of pre-owned vehicle prices in India–often leading to delayed re-registration of vehicles upon change in ownership $26,630 $2,520 $78,000 $2,250 $249,820 $34,380 Organized dealers / Franchise dealers Independent / Semi-organized / Unorganized dealers U.S.ChinaIndia U.S.ChinaIndia Total gross margin per month - average dealers (USD) Estimated auto finance penetration - new and pre-owned (%) 60%23.6%38.5% Doesadealerneedalicensetoretail pre-owned cars? DEALER ECONOMICS - PART 2 A FEW OTHER MARKET CONSIDERATIONS Organized dealers in India make 9x monthly gross margin vs. unorganized dealers 9x High ticket prices and a highly organized U.S. market affords a typical dealer with significantly higher monthly gross margins compared to India and China U.S.ChinaIndia Yes YesNo Vehicles cannot move across state lines in India without significant registration issues and expense In order to ease inter city and inter provincial sales in pre-owned cars, China State Council introduced new guidance (effective 31st May, 2016) 1 5 1 6
  • 15. IndianBlueBook 17 18 FOUR MAJOR MARKET SEGMENTS DEALER FOOTPRINT 12% 35% 34% 45% 35%58% 7% 55% 19% Pre-owned car market in India Share of metros vs non-metros Types of dealers across India Semi-organized dealersOrganized dealers Non-metros Metros Unorganized dealers C2C Semi-organized dealersOrganized dealers Unorganized dealers Dealer count across metros and non-metros Organized Semi-organized Unorganized 10750 29,920 1310 6520 800 3980 6560 Metros Non-metros Total Total Indian market largely unorganized with consumer to consumer transactions making up a third of all pre-owned car transactions Non-metros account for over half the pre-owned car volume sold and are growing faster than the metros Metros comprise 38% of the dealer network. Non-metros make up the balance, however, highly fragmented in nature 25% a year Organized segment is growing at over
  • 16. IndianBlueBook Organized Semi-organized Unorganized Metros Non-metros Organized dealer networks are significantly more productive than the unorganized DEALER PRODUCTIVITY GEOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW - PART 1 6 16 <39 In India, on an average a dealer sells cars per month 19 14 10 8 <4 <3 Average volume per dealer per month across segments - Pan India Average volume per dealer per month across metros and non-metros Semi-organized dealersOrganized dealers Unorganized dealers Tripura Jammu & Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Uttaranchal Punjab Haryana Delhi/NCR Uttar Pradesh Rajasthan Gujarat Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Goa Karnataka Tamil Nadu Kerala Pondicherry Andhra Pradesh Odisha Jharkhand Bihar Sikkim Assam Meghalaya Mizoram Manipur Nagaland Arunachal Pradesh West Bengal Chhattisgarh <5000 5001-10000 10001-15000 15001-20000 20001-25000 25001-30000 30001-35000 35001-40000 North & West zones account for over 60% of all pre-owned car volume sold, with the East zone being significantly smaller than the other zones East – 10.8%West– 27.4% North – 35.5% South – 26.3% Share of total volume by zone (%) Volume per month by state 19 20
  • 17. IndianBlueBook The organized channel originates approximately half of pre-owned car loans, enabled by more robust processes and transparency. Financing is primarily dealer originated. C2C transactions predominantly happen via cash Finance penetration is significantly higher within the organized channel. The semi-/unorganized channel is highly fragmented with higher channel costs for lenders Semi-organized/Unorganized dealers Organized dealers Semi-organized/Unorganized dealers Organized dealers Metros Non-metros 40% 6% 40% 18%54%46% GEOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW - PART 2 Share of organized and semi-/unorganized segments Share of total volume by zone (%) Organized Semi-organized & Unorganized North & West exhibit more organized channels than the South. East, while more organized, is a significantly smaller market and also highly concentrated in a few areas North – 40% South – 17% West– 29% East – 14% West– 27% East – 10% North – 34.5% South – 28.5% PRE-OWNED CAR FINANCE PENETRATION Share of pre-owned car finance by dealer segment Organized and unorganized penetration across India 21 22
  • 18. IndianBlueBook Non-metrosMetros 58% 42% PRE-OWNED CAR FINANCING Auto financing penetration - India Share of pre-owned car finance Pre-owned car New car 15% (Approximately) 65% $$$$$$` $$$$$$` $$$$$$$$$` $$$$$$$`$$$$$$$$$$$` Approximately 150,000 new cars and 30,000 pre-owned cars are financed monthly Pre-owned car interest rates are 4.5%- 6.5% higher than for new cars In addition to the larger players, there are more than 6,000 approved NBFCs that are funding pre-owned vehicles in India Average LTV is between 75%-80%; the average disbursement is `3 lakhs There is significant headroom for pre-owned car financing, with growth expected in the coming years vs. pre-owned car 5X 23 24 PRE-OWNED CAR VALUE CHAIN: Journey characterized by transac�onal fric�on Compare cars Check reviews Price check Locate inventory online InspectSeller Test drive Negotiate ServicingTrade-In Purchase WarrantyAnnual maintenance contract Accessories Paper work Finance Insurance Online Decision to buy Offline ` Classifieds People research in the CLOUD but transact on the GROUND
  • 19. IndianBlueBookPEOPLE ONLINE AUTOMOTIVE TRAFFIC ONLINE Total visitors per month (major auto portals - as reported) - in millions Total visitors per car sold per monthInternet Penetration Internet connection speeds (mbps) - Q4 2015 85%49%22% U.S.ChinaIndia 4.1 26.7 2.8 21.2 14.2 61.5 22.487.9 Average speed Average peak speed India China U.S. India China U.S. India China U.S. India has amongst the highest number of people online and offline India has the lowest average internet speed in APAC Enabled by mobile access, automotive websites have driven large volume of monthly visitors India’s internet traffic efficiency (visitors/car sold) is much lower than U.S. or China 277 Million 668 Million 270 Million People online 3.1 15 4.8 25 26
  • 21. IndianBlueBookPROFILE OF A TYPICAL PRE-OWNED CAR A LOOK AT FUEL COMPOSITION & CAR SEGMENTS Profile of an average pre-owned car Average age at time of sale lies at 4 years- flat through FY14-FY16 Average price approximately `3-4 lakhs- flat through FY14-FY16 Average number of prior owners at 1- flat through FY14-FY16 Average mileage (45,000-50,000 kms) increasing over FY14-FY16, with a greater share of vehicles being driven over 60,000 kms Age Price Mileage Owner Fuel composition of new car sales Pre-owned car sales by segment Fuel composition of pre-owned car sales 63% 52% 42% 47% 52% 56% 37% 48% 58% 53% 48% 44% FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Petrol (%) Diesel (%) 87% 83% 78% 67% 64% 53% Petrol (%) Diesel (%) 13% 17% 22% 33% 36% 47% FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 A1: Mini FY16 FY15 FY14 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% A2: Compact A3: Mid-size A4: Executive A5: Premium UV 5% 7% 4% 48% 54% 57% 17% 19% 23% 25% 15% 11% 4% 1% 1% 1% 4% 4% The share of utility vehicles is increasing but small cars still account for 80% of the pre-owned cars sold The pre-owned car market lags behind the new car market. Unlike in sales of new passenger vehicles, diesel penetration in pre-owned cars has increased over the same period A sudden shift in preference towards petrol vehicles amid uncertainty over diesel 27 28
  • 22. IndianBlueBook IBB price index – prices indexed to January 2014 CONSUMER INSIGHTS IBB INDEX: RELATIVE PRE-OWNED VEHICLE PRICING For more than half, a the family Affordability, followed by value for money are primary reasons why customers consider pre-owned cars > 50% of buyers are working class The buyer looks for a trusted source and quality product to complete his pre-owned car transaction 50% of buyers are in the 25-34 years age segment 41% 4% 55% 23% 7% 5% 15% 33% 36%17% 2%1% 11% 29% 35% 9% 7% 20% 27% 38% 14% 3% 5% 13% 50% IBB price index, which tracks relative pre-owned vehicle price changes on a monthly basis across the country, remained flat on a month on month basis in May, 2016. Trade-in activity (for car owners aspiring to upgrade) in the months (July - September) leading up to the festive season in 2015 resulted in a decline in the index over this period due to the effect of supply-side dynamics. Similar expectations, coupled with favorable fuel prices and interest rates work in favor of the price-sensitive first-time car buyer 0.94 0.95 0.98 1.09 1.06 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.07 1.01 1.00 1.05 1.05 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 Apr 15’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ May 15 May ’16 Cut in lending rates Cut in lending rates Cut in lending rates Festive season First-time buyer Multiple car in family Replacement buyer Matching requirement Good experience Others Product quality Good price Trust on brand18-24 years 25-34 years 45-54 years >54years 35-44 years Learn driving Others Value for moneyAffordable 2nd car in household Worker Others Self-employed professional Junior executive Senior executive Business-owner 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 http://www.indianbluebook.com/ibb-index Change of year 29 30
  • 23. IndianBlueBookSOURCES ‘China to promote sale of second-hand vehicles’, March 2016, The Economic Times ‘India has the largest offline population:World Bank report’, May 2016, Livemint 2016 pre-owned car Market Report, Manheim 2015 Used Vehicle Market Report, Edmunds.com 2015 China Auto Finance Report, January 2016, Deloitte ‘SC diesel car ban has pan India sales impact’, April 2016, The Economic Times ‘India car sales grow fastest since 2010-11’, April 2016, Livemint OICA (http://www.oica.net/) SIAM (http://www.siamindia.com/) ‘China's pre-owned car market’, January 2014, Gordon's View, Mckinsey China 2014 pre-owned car Industry Report, NIADA 2015 Annual Financial Profile of America's Franchised New-car Dealerships - NADA ‘The United States of pre-owned cars’, February 2014, The Car Connection SimilarWeb (https://www.similarweb.com/) ‘Fourth Quarter, 2015 State of the Internet Report’, Akamai ‘Driving through the urban-pre-owned car market’, February 2016, Deloitte ‘China's new vehicle market:Prospects to 2019’, Automotive World 2016 Internet Trends Report, June 2016, Mary Meeker (KPCB) ‘China’s new guidance on second-hand car sales to impact recovery rates’, May 2016, South China Morning Post Cox Automotive research, interviews with various financial institutions and other partners 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Wholesale market by segments A WORD ABOUT WHOLESALE MARKETS 480,000 (80%) 120,000 (20%) 400,000 (67%) 200,000 (33%) Others (Salvage, Fleet, Dealers)Repos UnorganizedOrganized Repossessions account for 80% of the wholesale market Commercial vehicles account for 45% of the repo segment Two-wheelers and four-wheelers each account for approximately 20% of the repo segment 31 32
  • 24. IndianBlueBook For further information contact: support@indianbluebook.com 790 outlets 365 locations Mahindra First Choice Wheels Franchise Dealer Footprint (as of April 2016) www.mahindrafirstchoice.com www.indianbluebook.com www.autoinspekt.com www.ediig.com IndianBlueBook (IBB) is the industry first pricing guide for new and pre-owned vehicle valuation in India. With exclusive access to a large number of car transactions that take place every day through different channels, IBB derives scientific and insightful inferences that lead to vehicle price discovery. Whether you’re buying or selling a vehicle, IBB helps you discover its real worth. Through various transactions on different customer-facing and B2B channels, IBB’s analytical engine logically deduces a pricing index which is then used to derive the benchmark market price of any vehicle. In essence, IBB is a one-of-a-kind valuation platform based on rigorous research and pure rationality. It is driven by the sheer passion to demystify the data points of a million transactions, thus ensuring that you never overpay or never undersell. IBB offers a wide array of tools such as Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) and residual value analysis, regularly updated reviews and insights via its blog, and a platform that enables its customers to buy and sell vehicles, thereby serving as a one-stop shop for customers looking to research vehicles. About IndianBlueBook