Max Spoor, International Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University, Oxford June 2011

1. Inclusive Growth: Beyond Poverty and Social Exclusion? Max Spoor International Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University

2. The Context Legacy of Soviet, Soviet-type and Yugoslav social systems (command economies, social systems, social distribution, participation) Transition Strategies (gradualist, shock, transition indicators on privatization, liberalisation and state/private sector influence) Political Transformations (semi- or consolidated democracy, semi- or consolidated authoritarian regimes, role civil society) Initial Conditions (income levels, existing poverty levels, closeness to western markets, pre-transition integration with non-Comecon markets)

4. CEE (Central and Eastern Europe): The Baltic countries: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and the Central European ones, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania Slovakia, and Slovenia (EU).

5. CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States):

6. Russia Federation.

7. Western CIS: Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine

8. Caucasus: Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia.

9. Central Asia: Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.Note: Georgia, Turkmenistan Ukraine are notmember of the CIS organization. However, here we have kept the name CIS as indicating the FSU (minus de Baltic States)

10. Growth Models (2) Pre-dominant Growth Models (Cornia 2009): Broad-based, industry and investment (FDI) Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia Foreign lending (+FDI) and real estate boom Estonia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania and Moldova Carbonhydrate Sector + Minerals exports Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan Official Development Aid (ODA) and Migrant Remittances Albania, Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Moldova, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan Mixed Growth Models: Belarus, Serbia, Slovakia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan

11. Drivers of Growth (3) Extractive industry and mining Manufacturing industry and services Cash-crop agriculture Construction and real estate Migrant remittances Official Development Assistance Illegal Activities and shadow economy

12. Political Economy (4) Political Economy Settings (Cerami and Stubbs 2010):

13. HDIs In-Between Country Inequalities

14. Inclusive Growth and Human Development Terry McKinley (2010) Development of a composite indicator of inclusive growth Two aspects: Growth, employment, and infrastructure Income, poverty, and inequality Equal weights (50%) to both

15. Growth, employment & infrastructure Economic growth Real rate of growth of GDP/capita Share of industry, services and agriculture in total value added (indicating the degree of structural change) Productive employment Share of the employed in industry Share of the employed in manufacturing Share of own-account workers and formally unpaid family workers in total employment Supplementary indicator (share of workers below 2.50 US$/day) at PPP poverty line Access to infrastructure Proportion of the population with access to electricity Number of mobile phone subscribers per 100 people

16. Income, poverty and inequality Poverty indicators: The proportion of the population living below nationally determined poverty lines The proportion of the population living below the international poverty line (in 2005 constant prices, of 2.50 US$/day) Inequality indicators, vertical: The Gini coefficient of income inequality The income share of the poorest 60% of the population Inequality indicators, horizontal: The income or expenditure gap between rural and urban areas Where feasible, the income or expenditure gap among regions or among major ethnic groupings

18. Towards Inclusive Growth Policy agenda focused on the quality of growth and recovery Diversification of growth poles and dynamic sectors Public investment in leverage points (roads, communication etc) in particular in intermediate cities where poverty is highest Fiscal policies to diminish income inequality Diminishing asset inequality (through redistribution, rental markets) Improving social infrastructure Combining labour market flexibility and improving security (flexicurity?) Human capital building, job opportunities for the “new poor”