The presentation of Istvan Gyorgy Toth from TARKI Budapest at the workshop European platform against poverty, 10th October 2011, European Information Centre, Bratislava

1. Income poverty and income inequality in Hungary István György Tóth Tárki Social Research Institute Budapest Representation of the European Commission in Slovakia Slovak Governance Institute Workshop European platform against poverty 11. October, 2011, Bratislava

4. Share of various per capita income deciles from all incomes between 1962 és 2009 Source: 1962–1987: KSH income surveys, Atkinson–Micklewright [1992] Table HI1.; 1992–1996: HHP waves I–VI., 2000–2009: Tárki Household Monitor. 62-82: levelling down (and up) 82-03: strong growth of upper decile shares, some losses at the bottom 03-07: losses of the top decile, „protected” lower bounds 07-09: losses by the top AND the bottom Hungarian income inequalities on the long run

5. Distribution of persons in 1996, 2005, 2007 and 2009 between income bands defined by cutpoints of 1987 decile distribution deflated by actual median income growth rates, % Polarization and shrinkage of the middle class between 1987 and 2005: of persons in the 1987 per capita income deciles, based on current incomes deflated to 1987, percent Note: 1987 decile cutpoints are deflated median growth indices. Source: 1987: CSO Income distribution survey, 1996: HHP, 2003, 2005: Tárki Household Monitor. Distribution of persons, current year

6. During the crisis: inequality has grown, but not shown uniformly by various measures Ratio of lower cutpoint of top decile and upper cutpoint of lowest decile (P90/P10) Ratio of top/bottom decile shares (S10/S1) Gini coefficient Forrás: 1987: KSH jövedelemfelvétel; 1992–1996: Magyar Háztartás Panel I–VI. hullámai, 2000–2009: Tárki Háztartás Monitor. Megj: 95% konf. int. mellett, személyi ekvivalens jövedelmek személyi eloszlása alapján . Szeg. Ráta 1987: e=0 ,73 alapján Relative poverty rate (OECD2: median 60%)

7. Evolution of income poverty rate (EU definition of at-risk-of poverty), Hungary, 1992-2009 Source: András Gábos’s computations from the Tarki Household Monitor series

9. 1000 2000 3000 4000 Income bands, % median Distribution of persons in various income brackets (defined in % of median) 1987-2009 1987 2009

10. Distribution of persons in various income categories by age of household head, 1987 and 2009 -34 35-59 60+ Relative shifts of positions of various socio-demographic groups in the income distribution: Polarization of the active age group, older cluster to the middle 1987 2009

11. Distribution of persons in various income categories by education of the household head 1987 and 2009 Max primary secondary vocational tertiary Relative shifts of positions of various socio-demographic groups in the income distribution: Increase in level of education and differentiation by education 1987 2009

12. Distribution of persons in various income categories by employment status of the household head, 1987 and 2009 Empl,, only the head Empl, other(s) also Inactive/ unemployed Pensioner + someone empl Pensioner, no empl Relative shifts of positions of various socio-demographic groups in the income distribution: Strong employment polarization 1987 2009

13. Distribution of persons in various income categories by number of children in the household 1987 and 2009 0 1 2 3+ Relative shifts of positions of various socio-demographic groups in the income distribution: Lower number of children in general, worsening position of large families 1987 2009

14. Distribution of persons in various income categories by ethnicity 1992 and 2009 Not roma Roma Relative shifts of positions of various socio-demographic groups in the income distribution: roma falling out 1992 2009

17. 4.6 3.5 13.0 2.8 1.5 1.6 2.9 Material deprivation Income poverty Low work intensity Income poverty, material deprivation and joblessness combined: EU 2020 poverty reduction target categories as of 2008, in % of total population Source: government estimate based on Eurostat Income: 12.4% Material deprivation: 20,9% Low WI: 8.8% Total (at least one risk): 29.9% Total (all combined): 2,8%

19. Employment rates by level of education in Hungary 1993-2007 women men

21. Source: CSO 2008 (Tájékoztató a kiemelten támogatott kistérségekről, Központi Statisztikai Hivatal, Budapest, 2008. ) Territorial distribution of disadvantaged Regions Distribution of the long term unemployed (registered for more than 180 days in 2009) Source: CSO (KSH T-STAR adatok – VÁTI-TEIR) Proxies of severe poverty combine and cluster in some specific regions Distribution of having at least a secondary education degree, in % of 18+ population, Hungary, 2011 *Without Budapest Source: CSO census data VÁTI-TEIR Share of Roma population in total population in the vaious counties (2003) Forrás Kemény, Janky és Lengyel (2004) 14. oldal, készült: SzMI 2010

22. Cohesion indicators show divergence? Source: Tárki, Gini-project Some measures of social cohesion, Hungary, 1982-2010

23. The relationship between relative poverty rates and the perceived poverty rate in EU Member States Notes: The relative poverty rate relates to those with income below 60% of the median in the 2008 income year – from Eurostat, EU-SILC, 2009. Source of the perceived poverty rate: Flash Eurobarometer 276, July, 2009. Chart from Keller, 2011 The share of t hose perceiving poverty as a consequence of social injustice ( % of total population , 2007-2010) Perception is higher than actual poverty rates Perceptions on „w hat make s people poor?

24. Anger and frustration: Share of those saying there is „too much” tension in the country… .. the rich and the poor … .. managers and workers … .. old and young … .. various ethnic groups … Source: 72.1. Special EuroBarometer, 2009

25. Target group priorities by the public opinion: Source: Bernát, 2010, based on Tarki omnibusz 2010 february H ow many of 100 persons belonging to the relevant group get social assistance and how many should get? -26 67 41 Disabled -5 53 47 Unemployed „ Gets” „ Should get” Difference Low pensioners 27 60 -33 Large families 43 58 -15 Roma 76 31 45

28. www.tarki.hu www.socialsituation.eu

29. Annex: Additional charts

30. Major economic indicators, Hungary, 2000-2009 GDP growth, % Inflation, % HHold consumption Gross and net real wages Magyarázat: az előző év azonos negyedév=100

31. Income inequalities in Hungary, (based on individual distribution of per capita household income) Source: Tóth, 2002, 2009

32. Employment rate in the population of working age (men between the age of 15–59, women between the age of 15–54) Source of data: Munkaerőpiaci Tükör, 2003

33. Earnings premia of different levels of education ( Primary educated 100%, Based on Mincer regressions) Source: Kézdi, 2004

34. Employment rate of the Roma and the non-Roma, 16-64 years of old, (Source: Kertesi and Kézdi, 2009 )

35. The effect of direct taxes and cash benefits on inequalities Source: Alari et al., 2009

36. E mployment rate by level of education, 2003 Source: OECD, 2005

37. At-risk-of-poverty rates across European countries (with confidence intervals, source EU-SILC) Source: Lelkes et al. 2009

38. A különböző összetételű háztartások jövedelmi szerkezete, 2009

39. Inflation (14%) Average income growth (7%) No change level Change in average incomes of various income deciles (person equivalent incomes, e= 0.73) between 2007 and 2009 Losses of various income deciles between 2007-2009

40. Wage inequality, P90/P10 1990=100% (among men employed full-time) Source of data: OECD Earnings Database