A look at how Automation could impact socio-economic conditions of developing countries, particularly in Indonesia. Most discussion about automation are specific to advanced economics (developed countries). This was produced for Futures Research graduate class at the University of Houston as part of the MS in Foresight program.

1. Impact of Automation on
Developing Countries
AN EXPLORATORY FORESIGHT EXERCISE
Daniel Riveong (Daniel.Riveong@Gmail.com), Futures Research Class, November 2016

2. Automation
& Developing
Economies
Economic
Models
Automation
Developmen
ts
Agricultu
re
Manufect
uring
Services
Singapor
e
Ethopian
Kenya
India
Farming
Indoor
Farming
Business
Processin
g
Outsourc
ing
Logistics
Shenzhe
n
Lab
Grown
Food
IN PARTNERSHIP WITH
BAPPENAS, Indonesia’s Planning Agency
Exploratory Futures
Research:
“Explore potential impact of
automation on Indonesia and
similar developing countries”
“How could automation
challenge existing paradigms
for economic development?”
Time Horizon
25 Year Horizon (2041)
NOTE: Mock Client for Class Assignment

3. Key Trends & Signals – External Trends
China &
Automation
••Textile & Smartphone
••Investing $270B on
robotics
In-Sourcing &
Automation
••Adidas brings back
factories to Germany
AI v. Knowledge
Workers
••Watson can diagnosis
cancer better, faster,
cheaper
Drone Delivery
••China is testing rural-
urban delivery using
drones

4. Key Trends & Signals - Local Level
Gov't Focus on
Manufacturing
••For job & economic
growth
••Textiles, Smartphones, etc
Over +30% Youth
Malnutrition
••Mentally and physical
stunting
Poor Education
Quality
••Only secondary education
••Poor quality uni-level
education
Digitalization of the
Market Place
••Connect farmers with
urban consumers

5. (Un)Steady
as She
Goes
••Baseline
Scenario
••Current
trajectory
Abundance
&
Community
••Transformative
Scenario
••A plausible,
preferred future
Exploring to Alternative Futures:
Indonesia in 2041

6. BASELINE FUTURE in 2041
(Un)Steady as She Goes…
Indonesia under the threat of Demographic Burdens,
Automation & Deindustrialization

7. BASELINE FUTURE in 2041
(Un)Steady as She Goes…
• Infrastructures Improves…
Gov’t improves infrastructure – its ports, roads, rails and
power
• …And Gov’t Succeeds in Increasing GDP, but not Jobs.
Government succeeds in increasing export manufacturing,
but increased GDP not employment (due to automated
factories)
• Jobless Indonesian workers are too expensive, too
unskilled
• Too expensive for low-skilled jobs replaced by automation
• Too unskilled for cognitively demanding jobs due to lack
of education and being mentally stunted (childhood
nutritional deficiency).
Indonesia is burdened as a young country of over 340 million people,
with little social mobility and high unemployment.
KEY
IMPICATION

8. Transformative Alternative Futures:
STRETCHING! OUR THINKING.

9. TRANSFORMATIVE FUTURE in 2041
Abundance & Community
An entrepreneurial, networked,
and community-driven Indonesia

10. TRANSFORMATIVE FUTURE in 2041
Abundance & Community
• Rural-Urban Integration with Digital
Marketplaces & Drones
Digital innovation empowers rural villages to
engage in more equitable commerce with urban
consumers. Drones “leapfrog” road infrastructure.
• Government as Entrepreneurship Platform
Gov’t nurturing of MSMEs, support for vocational
schools and MOOCs spurs entrepreneurship &
becomes main driver of job growth
• Automation Creates Abundance
Automation allows for cheap, locally made goods,
enabling many to enjoy the latest gadgets and
conveniences.
Not highly economic development, but attains equitable growth,
an integrated rural-urban society, and material abundance.
KEY
IMPLICATION

11. Baseline Future’s Key Implications

12. Baseline Future’s Key Implications
End of Easy
Growth
Demographic
Burden
Stunted Mental
Capacity
••Premature
Deindustrialization closes
the door on export-based
growth
••Automation
••Globalization
••Gov’t needs to create 1.5
million jobs per year
••+30% of Indonesian Youth
stunted
••Weak educational institutions,
weak skills
••+30% of Indonesian Youth
stunted due to
malnutrition
••Poor diet
••Early motherhood

13. TACKLING IMPLICATIONS
How can we increase the quality of
the workforce?

14. HOW CAN WE INCREASE THE QUALITY OF THE WORKFORCE?
Transform Education thru Partnerships
Invite Top Foreign Institutions
• Malaysia already has two MIT-related campuses, Singapore
has INSEAD and Yale.
• Partner with top schools and corporations to invest in
education connected with apprenticeships
English Language Training in Primary & Secondary School
• Reintroduce English to our primary and secondary schools
Vocational including MOOCs
• Invest in vocational schools, including partnerships with
MOOCs like Coursera and edX.org

15. TACKLING IMPLICATIONS
How do we address Malnutrition &
Stunted Mental Growth?

16. HOW DO WE ADDRESS MALNUTRITION & STUNTED MENTAL GROWTH?
Reform Food Industry, Family Planning
Reform Processed Foods & Halal Definition
• Work with Halal-certifiers to redefine Halal to also mean
nutritious. Work with food producers to fortify ready made
food.
Reenergize Family Planning
• Work with religious organization and NGOs on delaying
childbirth, to reduce changes of underweight babies.
Innovative Prenatal Education
• Work with smartphone companies to install prenatal-
education apps on nutrition.
• Work with religious organizations and NGOs to educate

17. The future is coming.
We can choose…
To be shaped by the future
Or create our own.

18. Images Sources

19. Image Sources - 1 of 3
Slide 1
• "Bangladeshi RMG Sector." Wikipedia. June 26, 2012. Accessed August 31, 2017.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladeshi_RMG_Sector#/media/File:Garments_Factory_in_Bangladesh.JPG. CC BY-SA 3.0.
Slide 3
• Jurvetson, Steve. "Tesla Robot Dance." Flickr. June 20, 2012. Accessed August 31, 2017.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/7408451314/. CC BY 2.0.
• Agencies. "Nike, Adidas lead suppliers' battle for gold." Nike, Adidas lead suppliers' battle for gold[1]. June 21, 2012. Accessed
August 31, 2017. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/2012olympics/2012-06/21/content_15517621.htm.
• IBM. "IBM's Watson Helps Employees Tackle Cancer." Medical Product Outsourcing. October 11, 2016. Accessed August 31,
2017. http://www.mpo-mag.com/contents/view_breaking-news/2016-10-11/ibms-watson-helps-employees-tackle-cancer.
• Cheskyw. "Drone delivery cardboard package on white background." 123RF Stock Photos. Accessed September 01, 2017.
https://www.123rf.com/photo_32981134_drone-delivery-cardboard-package-on-white-background.html.
Slide 4
• Salazar, Andrea. “Afghan women at a textile factory in Kabul.jpg.” 17 January 2012. Accessed August 21, 2017.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Afghan_women_at_a_textile_factory_in_Kabul.jpg. Public Domain.
• Surma, Vinsen. "Nutrition and the Children of West Timor." CWS. October 14, 2015. Accessed September 01, 2017.
https://cwsglobal.org/nutrition-and-the-children-of-west-timor/.
• Sai, Gabriel. "The Classroom." Flickr. June 24, 2008. Accessed September 01, 2017.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/gabsch/2607036324. CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.
• Vodafone Medien. "Mobiles Bezahlen mit Vodafone SmartPass." Flickr. July 10, 2015. Accessed September 01, 2017.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/vodafone_de/19579727715.CC BY-ND 2.0.

20. Image Sources – 2 of 3
Slide 5
• Tjui Tjioe. "Group of Indonesian kids." 123RF Stock Photos. Accessed September 01, 2017.
https://www.123rf.com/photo_7087364_group-of-indonesian-kids.html.
Slide 6
• Song, Sophie. "Indonesia Labor Strike: Workers Demand Higher Salaries After Rising Inflation And Fuel Prices." International
Business Times. October 31, 2013. Accessed September 01, 2017. http://www.ibtimes.com/indonesia-labor-strike-workers-
demand-higher-salaries-after-rising-inflation-fuel-prices-1449894.
Slide 7
• Song, Sophie. "Indonesia Labor Strike: Workers Demand Higher Salaries After Rising Inflation And Fuel Prices." International
Business Times. October 31, 2013. Accessed September 01, 2017. http://www.ibtimes.com/indonesia-labor-strike-workers-
demand-higher-salaries-after-rising-inflation-fuel-prices-1449894.
Slide 8
• Wong, Tommy. "Ballet stretch." Flickr. November 12, 2006. Accessed September 01, 2017.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/gracewong/295383565/. CC BY 2.0.
Slide 9
• TaniHub Indonesia. (30 August 2016). What is Tanihub ??. Accessed 1 September 2017.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpR4V0IpSlg.
Slide 10
• TaniHub Indonesia. (30 August 2016). What is Tanihub ??. Accessed 1 September 2017.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpR4V0IpSlg.

21. Image Sources – 3 of 3
Slide 11
• Song, Sophie. "Indonesia Labor Strike: Workers Demand Higher Salaries After Rising Inflation And Fuel Prices." International
Business Times. October 31, 2013. Accessed September 01, 2017. http://www.ibtimes.com/indonesia-labor-strike-workers-
demand-higher-salaries-after-rising-inflation-fuel-prices-1449894.
Slide 13
• "Indonesia's fuel wager: After raising transportation fares, government prepares a safety net." Nikkei Asian Review.
November 19, 2014. Accessed September 01, 2017. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Economy/After-raising-
transportation-fares-government-prepares-a-safety-net.
Slide 15
• Surma, Vinsen. "Nutrition and the Children of West Timor." CWS. October 14, 2015. Accessed September 01, 2017.
https://cwsglobal.org/nutrition-and-the-children-of-west-timor/.
Slide 17
• Weber, A. (2014, February 1). Human-Robot Collaboration Comes of Age. Retrieved September 01, 2017, from
http://www.assemblymag.com/articles/91862-human-robot-collaboration-comes-of-age.
• TaniHub Indonesia. (30 August 2016). What is Tanihub ??. Accessed 1 September 2017.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpR4V0IpSlg.
• Song, Sophie. "Indonesia Labor Strike: Workers Demand Higher Salaries After Rising Inflation And Fuel Prices." International
Business Times. October 31, 2013. Accessed September 01, 2017. http://www.ibtimes.com/indonesia-labor-strike-workers-
demand-higher-salaries-after-rising-inflation-fuel-prices-1449894.