Thomas Day of NewClimate Institute presents at COP 21 on "The impact of the Clean Development Mechanism - Quantifying the current and pre-2020 mitigation impact of the CDM". Wednesday, 2 December, 12.00, German Pavilion.

1. Impact of the Clean
Development Mechanism
Quantifying the current and pre-2020
mitigation impact of the CDM
Event name
02 December 2015 – German Pavilion, COP21 Paris
Thomas Day, NewClimate Institute

2. Insights from BMUB research
CDM portfolio analysis
Aug 2013 – Oct 2015
Institutions: NewClimate Institute,
Ecofys, TÜV SÜD
Publications:
Status Report released in May 2015
3 Focus Studies in preparation
02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org 2

3. Impacts of CDM report
02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org 3
Status of CDM projects, relative to
emission reductions
Quantification of net-mitigation
impact of the CDM
Pre-2020 outlook for credit demand
and supply

4. Net-mitigation impact
02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org 4
Unintended
Undesirable
The CDM is designed as a zero-sum offsetting
mechanism
Unintentional net-mitigation comes with a
enormous cost in terms of disenfranchised
private investors

5. Assessment methodology
02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org 5

6. Emission reductions
02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org 6
Emission
reductions
~750 MtCO2e
emission reduction
activity took place,
representing
> 73%
of theoretical maximum

7. Emission reductions
02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org 7
Emissions decreasing up to 2020 under BAU
Scenarios with higher CER price do not equate to much
greater volume of emission reductions

8. Credit supply
02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org 8
Credit supply
~270 mCERs
May be issued,
representing
27%
of theoretical maximum

9. Credit supply
02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org 9
Credit supply decreasing up to 2020 under BAU
Modest demand increase required to recovery to EUR 2
Recovery to higher CER prices requires major demand
increase or non-market intervention

10. Impacts of CDM report
02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org 10
Net mitigation impact 2014
480 MtCO2e
64% of all CDM emission reduction activity
~1% of global GHG emissions

11. Net mitigation impact
02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org 11
Net mitigation impact decreases up to 2020 under BAU
Higher CER prices will slash the net-mitigation impact,
restoring investor confidence.

12. Summary
02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org 12
See paper for:
Technology specific results
In 2014:
Emission reduction activity: ~750 MtCO2e
Credit supply: ~270 million CERS
Net mitigation impact: ~480 MtCO2e
64% of all emission reduction activity and 1% of global emissions
Higher CER prices → no major increase in emission reduction activity
CER price of EUR 2 requires only modest demand increase
CER price of EUR 5 generates major increase in credit supply

13. Thank you
Thomas Day, NewClimate Institute
t.day@newclimate.org
Download the report:
Impact of the Clean Development Mechanism
at newclimate.org
02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org 13

14. 29.10.2015 www.newclimate.org 14

15. 29.10.2015 www.newclimate.org 15

16. Net-mitigation per technology
29.10.2015 www.newclimate.org 16

17. Net-mitigation per technology
29.10.2015 www.newclimate.org 17

18. Status of projects
29.10.2015 www.newclimate.org 18

19. 02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org 19

20. 02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org 20