A presentation exploring what new norms are being defined, as today’s massive escalation of digital infrastructure development creates complex new realities. This deck, presented by Bill Barney, shares insights on how we must strategically respond to major challenges and seize new opportunities in this next tidal wave of digital transformation.
3. Has COVID-19 had a
positive or negative impact
on the technology
infrastructure business?
4. Services that used to grow in double
digits YOY, are now doing it MOM
Source:comscore
+8%
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
FEB 2020
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
MAR 2020
Total
visits (MM)
+10%
Total
minutes (MM)
FEB 2020 MAR 2020
5. Demand for
bandwidth from
bandwidth-hungry
content and
applications has
increased
dramatically during
COVID-19
Gaming
VPN
Web traffic
Video
75%
Social media usage
34%
20%
12%
0%
Week over week increase
Typeofcontent
6. Zoom – Global Daily Meeting Participants
Source: Mary Meeker
Zoom grew 20x in three months
220 MM
110 MM
Jan
2013
Dec
2019
Mar
2020
10 MM
200 MM
7. With work-from-home becoming the new normal, the use of collaboration
tools has grown significantly since February
Source:Ericsson Consumer & Industry Lab, June 2020
894%
677%
451%
398%
395%
179%
%ofusagelevels
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Teams Zoom Webex GoToMeeting Slack Skype for Business
Largely unknown companies have become household
names, and have seen four-digit growth in the year
9. + Spectrum may be
crowded;
+ Infrastructure may be at
capacity;
+ New infrastructure will
take some time to
deploy;
+ Access to new
spectrum will require
some degree of
regulatory approval,
and so on.
The Net of it all – the Fiber and Data Center
companies, have all seen a game change in
terms of demand…
Post-Covid-19
Pre-Covid-19
Telco services create more
social utility because they
have become more
valuable and their quantity
has increased
Social total
utility created by
telco services
Total ‘quantity’ of
telco services
Post-Covid-19 society prefers
more telco services
Industry moves from ‘A’ to ‘B’ B
A
Source:ITU, June 2020
Challenges facing
telecoms & ICT sector
10. Our networks and data centers are
seeing exponential growth
1 Tbps = 125 Gbs =
Source:Source:Adapted from quotes originally appearingin ‘Thank you For Being
Late’ by Thomas Friedman, 2016. Updated in June 2019 by Astro Teller.
Highest-ever level
recorded by BT
17.5 Tbps
7.5 Tbps
5 Tbps
50 HD movies
every second
Current
daytime
surge
Regular
daytime
12. Are we in the great depression?
Source:St. Louis FRED, BLS, CBO (including Q2:20E unemployment projection from 4/2/20), CapitalIQ as of 4/14/20.
DJIA Returns (Peak 9/3/1929 Indexed) Unemployment Rate (1929 - 1936)
DJIA Returns (Peak 2/12/2020 Indexed) Unemployment Rate (2020)
Unemployment vs. Stock Market Trends
= 2020 (2/12 – Current) vs. 1929 – 1936
USA
Unemployment
Rate (%)
Dow Jones
Industrial Average
IndexedReturns
4.4%
(3/20)
–
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
20
40
60
80
100
USA Unemployment Rate vs.
Dow Jones Industrial Average(Indexed)
9/1/29 9/1/30 9/1/31 9/1/32 9/1/33 9/1/34 9/1/35 9/1/36
>10%
(Q2:20E)
30%120
13. Will 2020 be marked as the biggest financial crisis
in history, or have we moved on?
✕
-9.99%
-7.87%
-7.79%
-7.70%
-7.33%
-7.13%
Mar 12, 2020
Travel ban for Europeans announced amid
coronavirus outbreak
Oct 15, 2008
Weak U.S. economic data amid financial crisis
Mar 9, 2020
Oil price crashes amid coronavirus outbreak
Dec 1, 2008
NBER confirms U.S. recession amid financial
crisis
Oct 9, 2008
Various bad news lead to panic sales amid
financial crisis
Sep 17, 2001
First trading day after 9/11
Largest single-day
percentage losses of
the Dow Jones
Industrial Average
since 2000
Source:Yahoo! Finance
14. Or perhaps, is the worst behind us?
Nasdaq S&P 500 Dow Jones
+11.68%
-1.26%
-5.43%
January February March April May
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
Year-to-date performance
of major U.S. stock market
indices as of June 10, 2020
16. Has technology finally accelerated faster
than human adaptability?
Technology
We are here
Rate for
change
Source:BT, March 2020
Time
Human
adaptability
Potential Human
Adaptability Acceleration
Owing to Faster Learning
& Smarter Regulation
17. Kohl's Corp
H&R Block Inc
Arlines Group Inc
Xerox HoldingAmerican Corp
DiscoveryThe Western Union
Franklin Resources Inc
MGMHewlett Packard
Occidental Petroleum Corp
PulteGroup Inc
Seagate
E*Trade
Expedia Group Inc
Geniune Parts Co
Halliburton Co
Ingersoll Rand Inc
Boston Properties Inc
Royal Cribbean Group
Equest Diagnostics Inc
Hartford Financials Tiffany & Co
Campbell Soup Co
Paycom Software Inch
Baker Hughes Co
Conagra Brands Inc
Domino's Pizza Inch
Tractor Supply Co
Akamai
Delta Airlines
Inch
First Republic Bank
Freeport-McMoRan Inc
Take-Two Interactive Southwest Airlines co
Simon Property
Nasdaq Inc Valero
Marathon Petroleum
Consolidated Edison Inc Tyson Foods inch
State Street
Archer -Daniels
Midland Co
Hilton
Kellogg CoDollar Tree Inc
AIGSchlumberger Ltd
Phillips
MotorolaHP Inc
Aflac Inc
D.R. Horton Inc
Fod
Paychex Inc
Clorox Co
Yum Brnads
Inc
The Kroger Co
Best Buy
Allstate Corp
Capital One Fin
Group
The Hershey Co
T- Rowe Price Group IncMarriott International
Ross Stores Inch
Twitter
BNY Mellon
Dow Inc
MetLife
Chipotle
Las Vegas Sands Corp
Public Storage
General MillsDuPond
General Motors Co
Electronic Arts
Kraft
Heinz
Monster Beverage
Schwab
Micron
Dollar General
Kimberly-Clark
Waste Managemnet
Progressive
Humana
Does this mean
these five will
change how we
live, or have they
already?
19. Sources: Hootsuite, GSMA, ITU and ACE Research
The number of people (in millions) in each region who are not connected to the internet
5
Northern
Europe
65
Eastern
Europe
34
Central
Asia
1,012
Southern
Asia
625
Eastern
Asia
229
Southeastern
Asia
13
Oceania
339
Eastern
Africa
27
Southern
Africa
252
Western
Africa
138
Middle
Africa
78
Western
Asia
25
Southern
Europe
16
Western
Europe
115
Northern
Africa
121
Southern
America
17
Caribbean
60
Central
America
44
Northern
America
˜2/3 are in Asia
The ‘next 3 billion’ : Unconnected audiences
20. By 2040, nearly 90% of the working age population
will live in emerging markets…..
Global population breakdown, 2015-40
UN estimates
2040
2015
80+
65-79
50-64
25-49
15-24
0-14
Africa Middle
East
China Europe North America
APAC (excl.
China & India)
India Latin America
21. Traditionally, Data Centers were concentrated in USA & Europe.
Now global OTTs are heading towards the emerging markets for their next stage of expansion...
Source: datacentermap.com, Our analysis
228
13
22
33
23
7
3
2
202
341
395
99
7
49 84
17
4
160
161
123
272
8
22
73 89
61
6
9
2267
2
9
4
6
8
21
41 19
32
38
43
44
13
17
59
67
37
21
19 16
38
34
29
2
4
7
8
130
12
2
10
236
2
22. Opportunities for growth of data center and infrastructure
operations in Asia and in emerging markets
USA
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Western
Europe
Eastern
Europe
Asia Emerging
Markets
The USA Big Five The Chinese Big Five The top ten data center operators
Massive
Opportunity
23. ~60 million
increase in digital consumers
from 2018 to 2020
96%
accessed the internet on their
smartphones
~85 billion
total value of digital payments
in Southeast Asia (2020)
308 million
People in Southeast Asia
accessed Facebook everyday
as of Q1 2020
It’s been five years of digital transformation in a single year
24. Are we finally at the arrival
of the long awaited FOCs or
Edge Data Centers?
25. Understanding the FOC (Edge)
⎯ High Power density data centers with strong fiber connectivity and internet gravity
⎯ Located in city and tech centers
⎯ 80% to 90% of cash generated from services and “spot services”
⎯ High customer engagement with average customer growing at double digits or more
per year
⎯ Expensive build at $12K to $14K a KVA
⎯ Tech like investment vehicles with hyper growth and high velocity of innovation
Understanding the STOC (Hyperscaler)
⎯ Lower power density with build costs ranging from $6K to $9K a KVA
⎯ Longer term stickier customers and revenue streams
⎯ Located in low rent optimal cooling locations
⎯ 80% to 90% of cash generated from storage and “industrial computing”
⎯ Real estate like investment profile with REIT or Trust like capital
structures
Are the FOCs the next growth engine in the
Tech Infrastructure space ?
STOC
FOCFOC
FOC