IF3206 Emerging Markets Essay

Kenter, Greg 13/03/2015
Analysis and Comparison of the Risks Involved from Investing in the MINT
Countries
Introduction
Since the globalization of investment, financial minds have been trying to look for
more lucrative ways to spend their money other than investing in proven developed
countries. Jim O’Neill, an American economist, famously constructed the now-
famous acronym, BRIC, in 2001 (BBC, 2014). This well-known economic term
stands for a list of developing countries on the brink of becoming major world
economic powers – Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The collective rise of these
countries has been specifically examined by economists due to each nation’s strong
demographic base, large gross domestic product (GDP) output, and projected
longevity (BBC, 2014).
But as the world’s economy drew further economic statistics and certain projections
became more certain, a new class of countries now rises to the forefront as the “new
emerging economic giants” (Figure 1)(BBC, 2014). This group was, dubbed by
O’Neill, the very man who coined BRIC, to be called the MINTs – Mexico, Indonesia,
Nigeria, and Turkey. With the transitional friction of the BRICs, such as China
pivoting its economy to a consumer-based operation and Russia and Brazil
experiencing a “slowdown in commodity trading [hitting these] markets dependent
on commodity exports,” this leaves the door wide open for the next generation of
emerging markets (Williams, 2014). A great wealth of new investment
opportunities has now found the ear of investors around the world, and the MINTs
are at the head of the discussion.
Investing in emerging markets has certain mathematical possibilities that make
them incredibly attractive options. They, for the most part, “exhibit high economic
growth rates, higher expected returns, and diversified benefits” (Pinkasovitch,
2014). These emerging market options also have certain demographic information
consistent with one another, particularly in their populations of their major cities.
Each one of the BRIC and MINT countries has one (or several) major cities listed in
the top 25 most populated metropolitan areas in the world (Figure 2)(WorldAtlas,
2015). Large movements to the urban centers are expected to account for a
“consumer class” of city folk with over four billion members worldwide, “two billion
of which will be in emerging market cities” (Dobbs, Remes, Schaer, 2012). These
cities are projected to account for “nearly $25 trillion [injected] into the global
economy through a combination of consumption and investment in physical capital”
(Dobbs, Remes, Schaer, 2012). The rapid growth of these cities can come across as a
proverbial siren’s song to an eager investor.
According to many economists, however, there are many risks that are involved and
understood with buying into these kinds of markets, and the MINTs are no
exception. These risks range from the threat of political instability to spikes and
valleys in foreign exchange rates, from the absence of domestic security exchange

policies to difficulties in raising capital within the developing country’s borders
(Pinkasovitch, 2014).
This paper analyzes the aforementioned risks of investing in the MINT countries.
Mexico
Overview
In recent years, Mexico has been one of the best-performing Latin-American
markets. Tom Smith, manager of a large investment firm called the Neptune Latin
America Fund, states that he expects Mexico’s markets to maintain its current state
of dominance and to continue to rise in the world’s economic ranks. The current
state of the country, Smith claims, will be stimulated by “[continued] progression on
the reform front, with education, telecommunication, financial, fiscal, and electoral
reforms all approved” (Williams, 2014). “While not all reforms are positive for all
sectors,” he continues, “telecommunication reforms look to increase competition,
and fiscal reform includes additional taxes on soft drinks and junk food – the
complete package should lift Mexico’s potential GDP growth rates” (Williams, 2014).
As a key of an emerging market in today’s financial climate is the movement to large
metropolitan areas, Mexico’s capital, Mexico City, shows high levels in urban
advancement. The country’s largest city and economic base, Mexico City is home for
nearly 19.5 million people and continues to show signs of population intake from
surrounding areas (WorldAtlas, 2015). According to the city’s official website,
21.8% of the country’s GDP comes from Mexico City. This massive output level has
elevated Mexico City’s ranking as the “eighth-richest urban agglomeration in the
world after Tokyo, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Paris, London and Osaka”
(Mexico City, 2015). The city is a national hub for Mexico’s largest financial
institutions, with the local Citigroup branch compiling “three times as much revenue
than all 16 of Citigroup’s branches in the rest of Latin America” (Mexico City, 2015).
Despite all of these attractive and lucrative investment avenues, there are a
substantial amount of risks associated with Mexico that leave potential financiers
hesitant. An easy identification of this risk lies within one of Mexico’s most
important exports – oil. Of the country’s many natural resources, oil is a major focal
point for the world monetary stage. According to the economic database Business
Monitor, sharp decreases in oil prices “could temper investment excitement towards
Mexico’s first international oil licensing round” (Business Monitor, 2015). As a top-
ten-ranked exporter of oil worldwide, Mexico’s investment opportunities are closely
linked to the volatility of oil consumption and prices (Figure 3).
Political Risk
Politically, Mexico faces an uphill climb, carrying its infamous stigmata of
governmental corruption with its every mention. The corruption database

Transparency International ranks Mexico 103rd out of 175 observed nations with a
corruption perception index score of a putrid 35 out 100. The report also details
that not only is there substantial political disarray in Mexico, but that the
government’s response to this blatant problem has been slim, ranking in the 44th
percentile worldwide (Transparency International, 2015).
Even with the behind-the-scenes foul play within the Mexican government, there are
still many issues occurring in the commonplace that would deter many financiers
from investing in Mexico. Reuters economic investigators Robin Emmott and Jason
Lange paint a picture of a country held together by high-level business deals
executed with drug cartels and blood money. Their 2011 report states that criminal
attacks, such as “the beheading of corpses strung from bridges, women and children
gunned down at parties and explosives in cars” would “[smear] Mexico’s reputation
as a top emerging market for foreign investment…” (Emmott and Lange, 2011).
Even with President Barack Obama officially supporting Mexico’s declared war on
drug trafficking, not all members of his cabinet seem so optimistic. Former US
Secretary of State Hilary Clinton “has compared Mexico to Columbia at the height of
its fight against drug smuggling guerrillas in the 1990’s” (Emmott and Lange, 2011).
Financial Risk
Mexico’s interest rate currently sits at about three percent, which has been a fixed
rate since June of 2014 (Trading Economics, 2015). The Central Bank of Mexico
decided to leave their economic policy unchanged from the summer of 2014 by
maintaining this steady three-percent level in October of 2014. This governmental
position came to fruition because it was believed at the time that no inflationary
pressures are anticipated (Figure 4)(Trading Economics, 2015). This rate is the
lowest of the MINTs.
The amount of loans to the private sector in Mexico has reached an all-time high,
and will seemingly continue to grow (Figure 5)(Trading Economics, 2015). This
signifies a high velocity of money being lent to up and coming businesses by the
government as well as those that are already prominent. This progressive
government loaning is backed by its stable three percent interest rate to eliminate
risks in monetary shock. While this then signifies an increase in the national money
supply, inflation rates have actually dropped nearly a full percent from the end of
2014 to early 2015 (Figure 6)(Trading Economics, 2015). Improving the circulation
of money within the economy signifies a governmental agenda to facilitate
competition while maintaining high monetary velocity.
Summary
Mexico’s financial numbers seem to tell misleading story than that of its political
landscape. Its relatively low interest rates and steadily increasing GDP can be
attractive numbers for outsiders looking to invest. Combined with an increasing

level of loans to the private sector and lowered inflation rates, one would be remiss
to discount the potential of Mexico based on numbers alone.
While these numbers on the surface seem like an avenue towards an attractive
investing option, Mexico’s real problems lie within the political spectrum.
Corruption runs rampant, politicians struggle to engage in the enforcement of drug
and human trafficking crimes, and powerful allies, such as the United States, have
expressed public concerns with the stability of the country’s governmental action. It
will be a very long time before the Mexican government can fully recover from its
infamous reputation.
Indonesia
Overview
Indonesia has been on verge of major economic breakthrough for many years, even
through many internal and external factors have hampered the country’s progress
towards its potential. It has shown a consistently growing GDP throughout the last
part of the previous decade, but also shows varying growth rates that offset large
jumps in the economy (Figure 7, Figure 8)(Trading Economics, 2015). It has been
heralded as “one of the best performing investments throughout the world
economic crisis that began in 2008”, also being described as “the only economy
posting any real economic growth in 2011” (Kuepper, 2014). Indonesia’s strong
macroeconomic foundations in certain policies regarding taxation and money
supply have also given economists reason to believe that there is still major growth
to be done, “even if growth rates were to slow down” (Kuepper, 2014). A solid
performance during the 2008 global crisis and ample growing space give Indonesia
an interesting edge amongst the emerging markets.
One of the largest economies of Southeast Asia, Indonesia boasts a fervent, youthful
population that ranks as the fourth most populated country in the world with
around 250 million people recorded in 2014 (Export.gov, 2015). This massive
populace is one that the United States economy has taken a particular interest in, as
“United States bilateral goods trade with Indonesia exceeded $27 billion in 2013”
(Department of State, 2014). Certain private American enterprises, such as Boeing,
have already led the investment charge into Indonesia. In 2011, Boeing signed a
$22.4 billion deal to bring over 230 commercial airplanes into the country, which is
the largest sale in the company’s history (Department of State, 2014).
The economic center of the country is undoubtedly Jakarta, listed as the second
most populated city in the world with over 26 million people (WorldAtlas, 2015).
Jakarta’s main economic outputs revolve around financial services, trading, and
product manufacturing, contributing to the city’s overall wealth and commerce
levels. In 2009, the exploits of Jakarta were shown in the 13 percent of the city
population that had an income per capita in excess of US $10,000 – translating to
roughly 108,000,000 rupiah (Trade Expo: Indonesia, 2015).

Investing in Indonesia has led economists to realize that many of the risks that
present themselves are exclusive to the unique and varied demographic context of
this nation. These fairly unique risks manifest themselves in numerous natural
disasters that have plagued Indonesia for years. As an immense archipelago of
provinces and cities, the country is certainly susceptible to incredible amounts of
domestic infrastructural damage caused by tsunamis, active volcanoes, and
earthquakes that have claimed thousands of lives and caused millions of dollars
worth of collateral damage (Van der Schaar, 2015). Even though some of these
disasters can be predicted, little can be done to avoid almost certain loss because of
them.
Political Risk
As a country that exhibits an incredibly voiced population, public demonstrations
are said to take place nearly daily across Indonesia that protest a variety of issues,
ranging from political inadequacy to wage discrimination to social inequalities. The
people have been successful in overthrowing political powers in the past, as
evidenced by the fall of President Suharto in 1998 due to unrelenting pressure from
the people and the sudden upheaval of his supporters. It appears to many outsiders
that this form of dismissal would no longer be acceptable in Indonesia’s current
system, it is clear that “there is repressed frustration in part of the Indonesian
society” (Van der Schaar, 2015). Such a volatile relationship between the
government and its people can bring productivity and business down to dangerous
levels.
The Indonesian people have also been the victims of radical Islamic groups and
other groups dedicated to “bringing [Islam] a larger role in Indonesian society,
particularly in politics” (Van der Schaar, 2015). These extremist groups are believed
to have connections with Al-Qaeda, the extremist Islamic terrorist group of the
Middle-East, and many see this relationship as a toxic barrier to investing in
Indonesia.
This tumultuous governmental image manifests itself in a Transparency
International rank of 107 out of 175 with an official score of 34 out of 100, signifying
a large presence of corruption in Indonesia. The database further ranks Indonesia
in the 27th percentile regarding its control of the situation, meaning that
government action is believed to have little impact on fixing the political problems
at bay (Transparency International, 2015).
Financial Risk
Indonesian GDP has seen its high growth plateau and decline over the past few
years, despite having a generally large GDP output compared to the rest of the
world. Its GDP growth has shown incredibly volatile projections, showing growth as
high as 3.83 percent and as low as -2 percent in 2014 alone (Figure 7, Figure

8)(Trading Economics, 2015). Within the last three years, the Indonesian rupiah
has “dropped below 12,000 to the US dollar in November 2013, making it the year’s
worst performer among the Asian currencies” (Global Business Guide, 2014).
However, there may be an overall plan to this decrease in GDP output. The interest
rate, currently sitting at 7.5 percent, was set at a level that would theoretically
“stabilize consumer prices” amidst the commotion behind the explosive exchange
rate. The combination of the interest rate and exchange rate suggest that the
government “seems happy to trade in a few basis points of GDP growth in exchange
for a more balanced current account”, specifically aiming to “reduce import demand
[by] making imported goods and services less affordable for Indonesian firms and
consumers, while higher borrowing costs constrain domestic demand by tightening
credit conditions” (Global Business Guide, 2014). This generalized look at the
Indonesian economic plan is actually praised by certain economists, as these steps
“should improve investor confidence in Indonesia’s economy as a whole”.
Summary
Indonesia’s political climate, combined with its gargantuan economic outputs,
portrays an incredibly unpredictable projection. The corrupt nature of the country’s
leadership cannot be overlooked when looking to invest in this nation, even though
many of the policies enacted show an ability to adapt under incredibly repressive
odds. Many of the political problems that Indonesia faces stem from the
combination of angry public demonstrations and radicalized religious groups
constantly fighting for influence regarding the direction of the country. With more
ways to circulate voices of citizens, it seems that in this perspective, Indonesia has
every risk of imploding into further social civil conflict, so much to the point of
risking macroeconomic stasis.
Financially, the interest rate and exchange rate levels, while inconsistent with those
countries that are more developed, seem to reveal that Indonesia is working itself
out of an economic hole, and is looking towards strong domestic growth. With this
inward approach to the economy, the government can focus on the increase in
money liquidity within the country. With high interest rates and higher exchange
rates, the government sees that sacrificing GDP output growth will help shrink the
current trade account deficit by increasing prices of imported goods. It is a bold
long-term strategy that would have potentially extreme payoffs, but could lead to
massive loss at the same time.
Nigeria
Overview
Nigeria, even as an emerging market, is a country with immense economic influence
in Africa. It is the largest economy of the continent, with a nominal GDP of roughly
$524 billion, surpassing the South African economic progression in 2014 (Figure 9).

From 1990 to 2010, the country’s economy experienced an 89 percent increase
“after the federal constitutional republic rebased its GDP” (Africa Ranker, 2015).
With such strong yields from foreign direct investment, an average growth rate of
roughly 7 percent suggests “Nigeria’s economy may well be doubling in size every
ten years” (Khan, 2012).
Another important reason for Nigeria’s economic progress is its steadily growing
population. As Africa’s most populated nation, it is home to about 117 million
people and continues to show growth. This group is split between the north and the
south, with a predominantly Muslim community in the north juxtaposed against the
major Christian communities of the south, which undoubtedly has lead to serious
internal conflict. The population continues to grow at such rates that would rank
Nigeria as the fourth most populated country by 2050 (Khan, 2012). Its most
important economic city is Lagos, home to over 10 million people and the location of
the Nigerian Stock Exchange (Shapiro, 2014).
Nigeria is considered to be a “resource-rich” country with strong reserves in oil that
make it a formidable worldwide player in the oil market. Oil is a major part of the
country’s GDP, contributing close to 14 percent overall. Despite this dominance in
one industry, Nigeria also has interests in a wide variety of other “social demands
for infrastructure”, such as energy, education, national defense security, agriculture,
health care, modern consumer goods, and even a Nigerian presence in filmmaking
(Shapiro, 2015). These industrial advances have led to some staggering returns via
foreign direct investment. Specific returns, according to increases in these
industrial sectors, have recently reached as high as 50 percent which make Nigeria
“one of the world’s best performing markets – and ripe for investors who want to
bet on further gains” (Levisohn, 2013).
Political Risk
The Nigerian government has garnered a reputation around the world (as well as
amongst its own people) as an organization that portrays steady levels of corruption
and lack of freedom for citizens to invest. The government has adopted, according
to economists, a “pay to play scheme”, in which the citizens must adhere to large
central payments in order to compete in the country’s markets (Shapiro, 2014).
Transparency International ranks Nigeria’s corruption at an abysmal 136th out of
175, with a corruption index score of 27 out of 100. It also concludes that Nigeria
has taken little to no steps in the curbing of this corruption, with a control of
corruption score in the 16th percentile (Transparency International, 2015).
Much of the country’s political problems stem from the demographic divide
between the northern Muslims and the southern Christians. In recent events, there
has been a strong negative presence of terrorist groups, most notably “Boko
Haram”, a well-known extremist Sunni-Islamic brotherhood. Actions that stem from
these groups, such as the recent mass kidnappings of over 300 elementary school
girls in the Christian south, “have raised serious concerns about living in Nigeria or

conducting business there” (Shapiro, 2014). Other groups, such as the “Movement
for the Emancipation of Niger Delta”, have publicly voiced agendas to continue
violence throughout the country (Levisohn, 2013). This moral vigilantism has been
an unfortunate staple of many African regions, and the continued application of
these acts inhibits the government’s abilities for serious corruption management
even further.
Another risky factor to understand with Nigeria is the complexity of its overall law
system. There are several different law systems in place relative to the specific
regions of the country, including English common laws, Islamic laws, and
fundamental tribal laws that create a constant struggle of authority within the state.
There are even some customs that operate under rulings from foreign powers. The
Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of the United States and the United Kingdom Bribery
Act have been able to exercise jurisdiction in Nigeria, “subjecting both government
officials and individuals from commercial enterprises, to criminal sanctions for
misconduct over cross-border bribery and kickback schemes taking place in
Nigeria” (Shapiro, 2014). With the assumptions of various forms of law, there can
be little doubt of disorganization and economic difficulty when problems become
political.
Financial Risk
Nigeria’s massive market gains can mislead from the steep financial risks that
plague its economy. The country’s Lagos-based stock market, Nigeria’s largest,
trades stocks “far less often than those in large emerging markets”, and shows high
signs of volatility even with lower trade velocity (Levisohn, 2013). Its interest rate
now sits at 13 percent, up one percent from the last three years, which is the second
highest amongst the MINT countries (Figure 10). There have been questions
regarding the employment and wages of Nigerian citizens with more foreign cash
inflows. The level of poverty among the growing population opens the door for
more leakage in transactions and transporting costs to people in positions of social
authority (Shapiro, 2014).
Much of the financial risk involved with Nigeria revolves around the naira, the
Nigerian unit of currency, experiencing too much volatility too quickly. Investor
bubbles – situations that exhibit “rising demands for foreign exchange and lack of
adjustment” – are at the mercy of both the naira remaining stable and the assurance
that investors will not withdraw their funds out of fear of losing. This is an
emerging market that seems to undergo constant internal crashes, but in doing so
“can be crucial in shaking systems out, forcing governments and businesses to
return to basics” (Cowan, 2013). This is clearly far from the consistency that would
attract a regular risk-averse investor, but the 8.5 percent increase in the MSCI
Frontier Markets Index certainly has some itching to tap into the potential gains
(Cowan, 2013).
Summary

Nigeria’s long-term projections indicate a very strong positioning in the world
market, and all but guarantee its dominance of the African economy. A steadily
growing population and increasing middle class will lead the country to
infrastructural advances and more modernized approaches to civil situations.
However, an inexplicably corrupt government combined with a complex and varied
set of legal jurisdiction makes political advances towards economic prosperity
difficult. The internal conflict of the Nigerians themselves inhibits the faith in
investing even more, with constant strife between radical religious groups. This
particular case of political opacity is nigh unmatched.
Financially, the country’s economy hangs on the ever-changing value of the naira
and foreign investors must cautiously accept the dangers of operating within
investor bubbles. While the returns seem too good to be true in some cases, there is
a wide array of cogs in the system that can bring Nigeria back to a rebuilding state.
Higher interest rates and a relatively steady level of inflation have kept the naira
under somewhat steady boundaries, and with a country as unpredictable as Nigeria,
it appears that it is used to handling crises based on fairly extensive practice
(Trading Economics, 2015).
Turkey
Overview
Turkey has been the target of investor interest for many years due to its fortunate
proximity to powerful European and Middle Eastern economic powers, steady
financial growth, slowing inflation, and gradually modernizing society. Like the
other MINT countries, it boasts a large population of youthful, skilled workers and
one of the largest and significant cities in history, Istanbul, as its economic control
center. It has experienced significant gains in national purchasing power, and even
has a strategic customs agreement with the European Union, which adds value to its
advantageous location (Edgerley, 2013).
Some interpretations of Turkey portray the nation’s economy not only as one of
emergence but one of recovery. In the 1980’s and 1990’s, Turkey experienced high
volatility as “periodic shocks caused sharp swings in GDP growth”, and has also had
to dig itself out of the financial crises of the early 2000’s (Boland, 2012).
Additionally, Turkey has had to rely on its neighboring partners for economic
assistance, namely the EU, and consequently has suffered when they undergo
slumps. Despite these obstacles, the company still is considered at the forefront of
many investment opportunities for prospective companies.
Political Risk
Turkey’s political sphere has been greatly impacted by the pressing socio-political
issues that are specific to its location. The government received international

skepticism for its support of the infamous Muslim Brotherhood after its removal
from Egypt, and is currently under pressure from multiple parties to take action
against its extremist neighbor, Isis (Dombey, 2014). Being caught in the crossfire of
jihadist radicals gives international powers second thoughts about financing
Turkey’s internal projects. Recent protests have also garnered “strong government
reaction against anyone associated with [the protests], which has renewed concern
about stability in Turkey” (Edgerley, 2013).
Foreign economic entities are also turned off by the complexity of the laws and
contingency plans recently passed by the Turkish government. Its own citizens
have expressed concerns about the current administration’s “arbitrary decision
making” regarding economic policy, with “badly drafted laws and opaque
regulations [leaving] the door open to negative judicial decisions” (Edgerley, 2013).
Internally, however, the Turkish government fairs decently compared to the other
MINTS according to Transparency International, with a global rank of 64 out of 175
and a corruption index of 45 out of 100. The movement to curb its corruption is
ranked in the 58th percentile, signifying more steps taken than all other MINTs
(Transparency International, 2015).
Financial Risk
Turkey suffers from many of the same problems that plague the other MINTs. Its
stock market exhibits “a relative lack of liquidity” due to a current high number of
family-run businesses that do not want to take risks. The static nature of the stock
market, combined with the reality of limited participation, portrays an economic
oligopoly in which entry to the market is increasingly difficult (Boland, 2012).
Economists believe that the market will only be free of its volatility if more long-
term foreign direct investment reaches Turkey as opposed to “hot money” ventures
(Boland, 2012). In fact, foreign direct investment has experienced a net decline over
the last decade, and the encouraging of new investors seems increasingly difficult
(Trading Economics, 2015).
Turkey is also at the mercy of the performance of the EU, and shows serious signs of
dependence towards its western neighbor. Despite EU membership negotiations,
the Turkish market “remains the most volatile in Europe” (Liinaki, 2014). The EU is
“by far Turkey’s biggest direct investor”, so there is definitely incentive for the EU to
assist Turkey in the wake of certain financial problems (Figure 11)(Dombey, 2014).
All told, the EU holds about 45 percent of Turkey’s commercial volume – if the EU
tanks, then Turkey will surely feel the brunt of the punishment by virtue of their
symbiotic relationship (Gokmen, 2014). Turkey has also shown a high dependence
on the importing of energy reserves from the EU and the Middle East (Dombey,
2014). The overall amounts of risk have many economists wondering if Turkey will
ever show the promise it once did, and many are skeptical “if it can catapult itself
from the world’s 17th largest economy into the top 10 within nine years” (Dombey,
2014).

Summary
With a jumbled legal system and slight over-dependence on the EU, Turkey’s
economy experiences the explosive peaks and valleys consistent with many
emerging markets. Its constant surveillance by the international community
regarding Isis and other terrorist organizations raises questions about the moral
compass of the government itself. As the gateway between the west and the Middle
East, political conflict is undoubtedly unsettling.
Financially, Turkey’s lower rates of foreign direct investment contribute to its
stalling performance in its Istanbul-based stock market. Its oligarchical market
layout constricts the possibilities of investing, but entering is still possible. The
risks of the volatile financial scene are more likely, however, to surface with short-
term investments instead of long-term investments.
Conclusion
To feel 100 percent certain in an investment in a MINT country is practically a
misnomer – there are simply too many risks appearing from countless angles, some
more predictable than others. Politically, the MINTs exhibit less-than-transparent
governments with relatively high corruption rates and insignificant responses to
white-collar crimes. All of the countries operate under the constant threat and risk
of cartels, religious fanatics, and terrorist groups that either inhibit investment
opportunities or jeopardize their progress once set in motion. Financially, each
country poses risks in their respective stock markets and often relies on the
economies of their powerful neighbors. But as the risk is high, the rewards can be
colossal for those willing to champion these risks. Only time will tell if these
countries can harness what makes them powerful surfacing forces – growing and
young population rates, growth of major cities, and advances in modern societal
infrastructure – and turn their potential into gains.
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