The document discusses the need to design housing that can adapt to climate change through the IDEAhaus concept. It presents evidence that the UK climate is getting warmer due to greenhouse gas emissions, with projections showing large increases in summer temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events by 2080. Analysis of a standard house design shows it will suffer from overheating now and in the future if no adaptations are made. The IDEAhaus concept proposes an industrialized, mass-customizable housing solution that is designed to be passive, efficient, adaptable and resilient to future climate change through its modular construction, renewable options, and flexible layouts.

1. IDEAhaus
A Comfortable Home
for the UK’s Future
Climate
Ian McHugh
Green Triangle Studio
Presentation to:
Manchester
School of
Architecture
Mar 2015
Enquiries: green.triangle@btinternet.com

2. Why do we need more housing?
Housing Supply Megagraph
By Alastair Parvin of Architecture00:/ and Toby Lloyd of Shelter
The UK housing supply shortfall is roughly the equivalent
of *not* building Cambridge - three times - every year

3. Problems?
We think there are two big problems UK
housing is not facing up to:
1. UK housing is not being designed to
deal with Climate Change
2. Industrialisation has not been exploited
successfully in UK housing
construction
• Liverpool based Case Study
• Funded by Technology Strategy Board
•https://connect.innovateuk.org/home
•Free registration
• Design For Future Climate programme
• Case studies at
•https://connect.innovateuk.org/web/design-for-future-
climate/projects-outputs

4. IDEAhaus
• Climate Change
• IDEAhaus Concept
• Design

5. What is Climate Change Mitigation?
Climate
Change
Mitigation is
about saving
the planet
from us.

6. What is Climate Change Adaptation?
Climate
Change
Adaptation is
about saving
us from the
planet.

7. Cave or Pavilion?

8. Why do we need to adapt?
“The rate of increase for this past decade is higher than any decade since the
start of the atmospheric CO2 instrument record in March 1958.”
Calculations are based on NOAA-ESRL data (Mauna Loa Observatory) dated January 9, 2014
25% increase in
50 years!

9. Why do we need to adapt?
“A new NASA study underscores the fact that greenhouse gases generated by
human activity — not changes in solar activity — are the primary force driving
global warming.
The study offers an updated calculation of the Earth's energy imbalance, the
difference between the amount of solar energy absorbed by Earth's surface
and the amount returned to space as heat. The researchers' calculations show
that, despite unusually low solar activity between 2005 and 2010, the planet
continued to absorb more energy than it returned to space.”
James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Jan. 30, 2012

10. Why do we need to adapt?
Temperature data from four international
science institutions. All show rapid warming
in the past few decades and that the last
decade has been the warmest on record.
Consensus:
97% of climate
scientists agree

11. Future Climate - Global
Temp Rise °C
Global Average Temperature Changes
Climate Change is Unavoidable
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Emission
scenarios:
High
Medium
Low
A rise of 4°C would threaten
London, New York & Tokyo
from sea level rise!
We are here
Building designers assume
temperatures will stay the
same

12. Why do we need to adapt?
The Scientist’s view:
‘I’d rather slam my **** in a door
than debate climate change’
British scientist, Guardian columnist and Author of ‘Bad Science’,
Ben Goldacre

13. Do we need to adapt?

14. Do we need to adapt?
The Industry View:
“The overheating is negligible
and the air-con can deal with it”
Contractor (who will remain anonymous!) 2012

15. Why do we need to adapt?

16. Future Climate - UK
Headline Impacts:
The most recent UKCP09
government projections show:
• Hotter drier summers
• Wetter warmer winters
• Extreme events more likely
• Sea level rise

17. Flooding
• Flood return periods are shown falling drastically
– eg. a current 100 year flood would be likely on average every 45 years by 2080
• There is no projection to show a future 100 year event
UK Met Office graphs showing changes in return period
for winter rainfall events in Liverpool 2012-2080
Floods will be much more frequent

18. Temperature – NW England
‘ProCliP’ diagrams
show the range of
probable temperatures
with different scenarios
This helps to inform
risk based decisions
about design and
investment now
Which one is relevant
to your building?
All future scenarios show a steep rise in temperature
Risk?

19. Psychrometric Analysis
Liverpool Psychrometric charts. Baseline climatic data from University of Exeter, Prometheus project
2010 Design Summer Year 2080 Hi-Em 90th Percentile
Prometheus creates simulated weather files for sample years from the climate projections so we can
look at models for temperature and humidity and appropriate environmental design strategies:
• Current DSY – little need for environmental control other than solar
• 2030 Hi-Em 90th% - need for co-ordinated cooling strategy – thermal mass
• 2050 Hi-Em 90th% - increased humidity – more ventilation & high thermal mass
• 2080 Hi-Em 90th% - increased temp & humidity – passive difficult, consider ground cooling too?
- average increase in summer temperature = 9°C!
Something like
Rome!

20. Psychrometric Analysis
Liverpool Psychrometric charts. Baseline climatic data from University of Exeter, Prometheus project
2010 Design Summer Year 2080 Hi-Em 90th Percentile
In plain English this looks something like this - Liverpool climate in 2080 looks more like Rome now!
• Current DSY – little need for environmental control other than solar
• 2030 Hi-Em 90th% - need for co-ordinated cooling strategy – thermal mass
• 2050 Hi-Em 90th% - increased humidity – more ventilation & high thermal mass
• 2080 Hi-Em 90th% - increased temp & humidity – passive difficult, consider ground cooling too?
- average increase in summer temperature = 9°C!

21. Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA)
Weather not Climate!
For design we are interested in:
• Temperature
• Rain
• Wind
Risk = Likelihood + Impact
Insurers and lenders will always
protect their interests
Are we Designing for the ride?
Or Designing for the crash?
Or Don’t know?
What is your Asset Protection
Policy on Climate Change?
Have you assessed the risks?
Risks We Identified
• Highest number of risks for flooding
• Greatest severity of risk for overheating
• Wind projections within safety margins (but
projected data for extreme gusts was lacking)

22. Passive Cooling Principles
Preventing heat gains
• solar shading
• insulation
• internal gains
Modulation of heat gains
• thermal mass
• air movement
Heat dissipation
• night ventilation
• evaporative cooling
• ground cooling

23. Baseline House - Thermal modelling
Overheating
Overheating is already
happening and will
become unbearable!
• Benchmark guidance (CIBSE) is
not to exceed 28degC for more
than 1% of habitable hours
• Analysis of high spec ‘baseline’
house showed:
Now (2010 DSY)
• 6.6% annual
• 28.4% Jul/Aug
• Hottest day 25-36degC
Future (2080 HiEm90%)
• 50.5% annual
• 74.6% Jul/Aug
• Hottest day 30-40degC
Baseline scheme
• Standard Timber frame housetype
• Aspirational specification
U-values 0.11W/m2K
Air tightness 3m3/h/m2

24. Baseline House - Energy modelling
Energy demand
• Space heating
• Equipment
• Hot water
• Lighting
• Space cooling?
Our analysis showed current
new houses ‘need’ space
cooling (air-con) to be
comfortable in the summer
In 2080 there is hardly any
heating needed and summer
energy use is higher than
winter due to cooling demand
2010
2080
HiEms
90th%
Without air-con With air-con (over 25degC)
Energy breakdown profile (Sefaira) on
baseline timber frame housetype for
2010 & 2080 Hi-em 90th%tile

25. Baseline House - Energy modelling
Energy demand
• With air-con
• Without air-con
Analysis shows energy demand
without air-con falling by over 20%
but with air-con the saving is only
about 10%
Heating v Cooling demand
• Heating demand falls
• Cooling demand rises
• Energy ‘crossover’ by 2038?
If cooling is by air-con, the carbon
and cost crossovers would be
much sooner because grid
electricity is much more carbon
intensive and expensive than
standard gas heating.
Annual Energy Consumption
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2013 2030 2050 2080
Year
kWh
Baseline Air Conditioned
Energy use (IES) on baseline timber frame housetype
for 2010 & 2030, 2050, 2080 Hi-em 90th%tile

26. IDEAhaus Concept
We wanted a future
housing product which
could be
• mass produced
• flexible in design
• passive design
• climate resilient
It should be:
• Industrialised
• Delightful
• Efficient
• Adaptable
…an IDEAhaus!

27. Industrialised
The benefits of Industrialised
manufacturing are well known:
Standardisation
• Mass produced core components
Manufacturing Quality
• Enhanced under factory
conditions
Predictable Cost & Delivery
• Repetitive components &
assembly
Economies of Scale
• Bulk purchasing and ‘stock’ items

28. Delightful
Houses must be loved to live
long, so they are designed to
be:
Spacious
• Generous layouts, room
heights & central lightwell
Individualised
• options for rooms, windows,
cladding & finishes
Comfortable
• Good environmental control
& performance
Quality
• High quality products
specification
Elevational options – brick, timber, render/panel

29. Efficient
Efficiency is built-in through:
Passive Design
• Highly insulated,
thermal mass, natural
vent & shading
Renewable energy
• Designed for integration
Low impact materials
• Sustainable sourcing, waste
engineered out
Fast construction
• Predictable lead in &
construction to watertight
shell

30. Adaptable
Adaptability is embedded in the
designs by providing:
Flexible Layout
• Lifetime Homes accessibility
standard
• Variable dwelling size
Climate Resilience
• Flood & overheating resilient
construction
Additive Features
• Exo-structure options &
vertical extension
Upgradable Performance
• Replaceable cladding, solar
panels & services 4B6P house

31. Mass Customisation
Enhanced use of computerisation in
design and manufacturing make it
easier to customise and provide
variations on ‘standard’ components.
The IDEAhaus concept is therefore
based around a
Kit of Parts
• Core Construction
– A small number of large
repeatable elements
• Additive Components
– A large number of small
changeable elements
• Adaptable Services
– Integrated services distribution
and ability to plug-in new or
upgraded features easily

32. Core Construction 1
Foundations
Fast and suitable for any site (almost)
• Helical steel screw piles
Ground Floor
Thermal mass and built in flood
resistance
• Precast concrete units with upstand
edgebeams on insulated bearing
blocks
• Bonded damp membrane & closed
cell insulation
• Standard sized units

33. Core Construction 2
Wall Cassettes
• Pre-insulated timber frame
with 120mm precast
Hemcrete & 200mm hemp
fibre
– Thermal mass
– Phase change (?)
– Breathable
– Humidity control
Upper Floor Cassettes
• Open panel timber
• Hollow clay block infill
Ibstock ‘Coolvault’
– Thermal mass
– Self finished

34. Core Construction 3
Central Volumetric Unit
Suitable for all house types and
could be a fully finished ‘stock’
item
• Standardised bathrooms, stairs
& heating system
South Facing Roof
Exploited for solar aspect and
storage/services
• 30°pitch volumetric
– trussed rafters on framed
purlins with boarded
finishes
North facing roof
Exploited for amenity/bio-diversity
• Pre-insulated closed panel
cassettes

35. Additive Components 1
External Cladding
Structural grid allows variety of
materials and window
proportions
• Typical finishes shown
• Others equally viable
Green Roof/ Garden
Roofs made to work hard!
• Bio-diversity
• Rainwater attenuation
• Cooling micro-climate
Fit Out
• Typical UK social housing
layouts shown
• Allows for bespoke rooms &
finishes
Elevational options – brick, timber, render/panel?
Roof options – bio-diversity and/or amenity space?

36. Additive Components 2
Exo-structure
Allows an outer layer of
features to be added or
changed
• Grid of thermally broken
fixing points in façade
• A range of add-on
components 1.2m deep eg.
– Porches
– Shading
– Balconies
– Trelliswork
Extra Floors
Structure allows future
adaptation
• Add staircase
• Re-use roof cassettes

37. Adaptable Services 1
PV-Thermal
Maximise potential of roofspace
• Combined solar hot water &
PV cells
• 40% greater energy yield?
Underfloor heating &
cooling
Maximise design flexibility and
performance
• Radiant for comfort
• Works with thermal mass
• Efficient for heat exchangers
• Disperses heat for summer
cooling
• Frees up floor plan & wall
space

38. Adaptable Services 2
Natural Ventilation
Simple and intuitive for responsive
user control, low installation &
maintenance cost and good indoor
air quality
• Avoid whole house MVHR!
• Window patterns to enhance
single sided ventilation & allow
night vent heat purge
• Fans with HR for kitchens &
bathrooms
• Central rooflight & stairwell for
cross vent options

39. IDEAhaus - Thermal Modelling
Overheating Comparison
Analysis (IES) shows IDEAhaus makes a big improvement to summer
comfort compared to the Baseline House (high spec timber frame).
• Benchmark guidance (CIBSE) is not to exceed 28degC for more than 1% of habitable hours
Baseline House
Now (2010 DSY)
• 6.6% annual
• 28.4% Jul/Aug
• Hottest day 25-36degC
Future (2080 HiEm90%)
• 50.5% annual
• 74.6% Jul/Aug
• Hottest day 30-40degC
IDEAhaus
Now (2010 DSY)
• 0.2% annual
• 1.0% Jul/Aug
• Hottest day 22-25degC
Future (2080 HiEm90%)
• 12.1% annual
• 40.3% Jul/Aug
• Hottest day 28-32degC

40. IDEAhaus - Energy Modelling
Baseline House
• 2010: 4800kWh 2080: 3900kWh energy ‘crossover’ by 2038
IDEAhaus
• 2010: 4000kWh 2080: 2000kWh energy ‘crossover’ by 2048
Energy use(IES) on baseline timber frame
housetype for 2010 & 2030, 2050, 2080 Hi-em
90th%tile
Energy use (IES) on IDEAhaus. for 2010 &
2030, 2050, 2080 Hi-em 90th%tile dataset.
Heating/Cooling Energy Use Comparison
IDEAhaus has lower energy use now and in the future and delays the energy ‘crossover’
from heating to cooling dominance by 10 years

41. IDEAhaus Summary
• Overheating and flooding will
become increasingly
common and there are signs
of change already
• Integral passive cooling
design strategies provide a
more comfortable & energy
efficient house
• The timber frame is protected
from flooding by raising the
floor slab edges
• Thermal mass is incorporated
into the lightweight structures
to even out temperature
fluctuations
• Mass customisation is used
to provide attractive and
varied products economically
• Adaptable construction
allows for uncertainty

42. Which way forward?

43. Which way forward?

44. IDEAhaus
A Comfortable Home
for the UK’s Future
Climate
Ian McHugh
Green Triangle Studio
Presentation to:
Manchester
School of
Architecture
Mar 2014
Enquiries: green.triangle@btinternet.com