ICLR Friday Forum: Ottawa/Gatineau tornado damage surveys (October 12, 2018)
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On October 12, 2018, ICLR held a Friday Forum webinar featuring Emilio Hong and Aaron Jaffe of Western University on the Ottawa/Gatineau tornado damage surveys. On September 21, 2018, a large system of thunderstorms moved across Ontario, resulting in one of the largest tornado outbreaks that Canada has seen in the last few years. Six tornadoes were confirmed to have touched down in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, the strongest of which were an EF-3 tornado that caused significant damage to Dunrobin, ON and Gatineau, QC, and an EF-2 tornado that swept through the Nepean area of Ottawa. Immediately following the outbreak, damage surveys were conducted by engineers from Western University and meteorologists from Environment and Climate Change Canada. Over two days, the team surveyed damage in the hardest hit areas of Dunrobin, Nepean and Gatineau. This damage survey focused on the damage to houses, low-rise buildings and trees throughout the areas. The goal of this investigation was to capture enough information from the tornadoes to continue growing our tornado database and better understand these storms and their effects. This session highlighted some of the observations made during the damage surveys, discussed the methodology and techniques used and shared some of the preliminary conclusions from the investigation. Emilio Hong is a research engineer and PhD student at Western University. He has been on damage surveys for the last five years, highlighted by tornadoes in Angus, ON in 2014, Windsor, ON in 2016, the outbreak of Quebec tornadoes in 2017 and Hurricane Irma in 2017. His research includes wind tunnel testing for walls of low- to high-rise buildings and working on the Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP), identifying tornadoes based on aerial imagery and tree fall patterns. His PhD work is focused on re-examining damage indicators for tornadoes based on forensic analysis. Aaron Jaffe is currently a MESc student in wind engineering and a full-time research engineer at Western University. He has worked alongside senior engineers and meteorologists for the Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP). The NTP focuses on assessing the damage from tornadoes in Ontario and the rest of Canada, with a special focus on gaining additional information on northern tornadoes that are normally unreported and must be detected by other methods, including satellite. Aaron’s student research work focuses on internal pressures in residential structures caused by significant openings in the structure in tornadoes and other severe wind events.
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ICLR Friday Forum: Floodplain mapping over Canada: performance at inundation...
ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar on June 18, 2021 titled 'Floodplain mapping over Canada: Investigating performance at inundation level and understanding dynamics of population flood exposure', led by Dr. Slobodan Simonovic, Director of Engineering Studies, ICLR/Professor Emeritus, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Western University.
Surface runoff estimates from atmospheric re-analysis datasets are increasingly preferred by hydrologists for modelling floods in regions where traditional observations are not sufficiently available. This presentation explores the fidelity of four widely used re-analyses runoff products as hydraulic forcings to a flood inundation model in describing inundation dynamics over Canada. The re-analysis obtained runoff is used with the Catchment-based Macroscale Floodplain (CaMa-Flood) global hydrodynamic model, to derive high-resolution floodplain maps for 100 and 200-yr return periods. The floodplain maps derived from each reanalysis dataset are compared with the regional developed or ‘benchmark floodplain maps’ over six selected flood-prone basins (test basins) in Canada through a set of performance statistics. Using the superior reanalysis runoff dataset, a few historic flood events over the test basins are simulated and subsequently compared with MODIS satellite-derived floodplain information. We notice that more than 75% of the inundation is precisely captured for these events.
The second part of the presentation will focus on the use of four global population datasets (together with census data from Statistics Canada as the reference), their performances and skill in flood exposure assessment across Canada. The flood exposure is quantified based on a set of floodplain maps for Canada derived from the CaMa-Flood global flood model. To obtain further insights at the regional level, the methodology is implemented over six flood-prone River Basins in Canada. We find that about 9% (3.31 million) and 11% (3.90 million) of the Canadian population resides within 1 in 100-yr and 1 in 200-yr floodplains.
This work (i) strongly supports the need for careful selection of a re-analysis dataset while performing inundation modelling for large regions: and (ii) also highlights the need for careful selection of population datasets for preventing further amplification of uncertainties in flood risk. The results derived from this study may be useful for flood risk management and contribute to understanding other disaster impacts on human-environment interrelationships.
ICLR Friday Forum: Climate Disclosure, Litigation & Finance (May 21, 2021)
On May 21, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Climate Disclosure, Litigation and Finance'"Climate Disclosure, Litigation and Finance' is a forthcoming chapter in 'Canada in a Changing Climate: National Issues'. In this webinar, chapter authors Paul Kovacs, Gordon McBean, Gordon Beal, Maryam Golnaraghi, Pat Koval and Bohan Li examined the evolving climate risks for businesses and governments.
Climate change is now widely regarded as an environmental and an economic issue. While the policy discussion about climate change emphasizes the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to better cope with the impact of extreme events, the business community is increasingly focused on the physical and transition risks and opportunities presented by climate change. The research team will discuss how managing the risks and opportunities associated with climate change affect a company’s ability to access capital, deliver products and services, hire and retain employees and achieve positive financial performance.
Paul Kovacs is the Executive Director of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction.
Professor Emeritus Gordon McBean is with the ICLR and Department of Geography and Environment, Western University and the past President of the International Council for Science and former ADM of the atmospheric component of Environment Canada.
Gordon Beal, CPA, CA, M.Ed., is the Vice President of Research Guidance and Support for Chartered Professional Accountants Canada and a member of Canada’s National Climate Change Adaptation Platform Plenary.
Dr. Maryam Golnaraghi is the Director of Climate Change and Environment at The Geneva Association, a platform of Group CEOs of largest insurance companies, a non-resident senior fellow at The Atlantic Council and serves on a number of boards and advisory councils in the US, Canada and the UK.
Patricia Koval, JD, is a Board Director of a number of companies in the United States and Canada, a former partner of a major Canadian law firm, and a member of the Ontario Advisory Panel on Climate Change.
Dr. Bohan Li is a research associate at the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction.
ICLR wildfire season forecast 2021 (May 20, 2021)
This is a forecast of the 2021 wildfire season led by Richard Carr from the Canadian Forest Service. The webinar summarizes the current conditions in Canada and provided a forecast for the 2021 wildfire season.
ICLR Friday Forum: Driving resilience forward with research (April 16, 2021)
On April 16, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Narrow the Path of Damage: Driving resilience forward with research', led by Anne Cope, PhD, Chief Engineer at the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety.
Severe weather disrupts lives, displaces families and drives financial loss. Anne Cope, PhD, Chief Engineer at IBHS, discussed the Institute’s latest research investigating wind, wind-driven rain, hail, and wildfire. From how wildfires burn to how hail damages a roof, top-tier science delivers actionable insights for the insurance industry and homeowners. Anne will demonstrate how IBHS is working to motivate resilience through research to drive down losses and support thriving communities.
Anne D. Cope, PhD, P.E., Chief Engineer: Dr. Anne Cope joined IBHS in 2009 just a few months before the groundbreaking for the construction of the IBHS Research Center in Richburg, South Carolina. As the Chief Engineer, she leads the development of research programs to improve the performance of structures in hurricanes, wildfires, severe thunderstorms, and hailstorms as well as the team of engineers, scientists, and skilled craftsman who conduct research on full-scale homes and commercial buildings. She is responsible for the team’s implementation of research findings into building codes and standards.
Prior to joining IBHS, Dr. Cope was a project manager and structural engineer with Reynolds, Smith & Hills, Inc., designing projects for NASA, Department of Defense, and commercial launch operations. Dr. Cope’s research encompasses topics ranging from the full-scale simulation of wind effects on buildings to detailed studies of the vulnerabilities of buildings to natural hazards and the development of damage prediction models. She is also a proud veteran of the United States Army. She earned her bachelor’s and master’s degrees in civil engineering from Clemson University, and her doctorate from the University of Florida. She is a registered professional engineer in Florida and South Carolina.
ICLR Friday Forum: Tantramar Marshes Flooding (March 19, 2021)
On Friday, March 19, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Solutions for Tantramar marshes flooding', led by Dr. Jeff 0llerhead, Professor, Geography and Environment Department, Mount Allison University.
Most former salt marshes in the Tantramar region of Atlantic Canada are now protected by dykes and are used primarily for agriculture. This has been true for decades to centuries and, as such, their elevation can be as much as 2 m below that of undyked salt marshes in the region. The key environmental drivers shaping the marshes are changing over time with climate change. The rate of relative sea level (RSL) rise is accelerating and there is some evidence that storms are becoming more frequent and sea ice is diminishing. The risk of a catastrophic dyke failure and associated flooding increases each year. Risk from inland flooding is also increasing.
Possible solutions include a combination of: (i) raise and reenforce the dyke system, (ii) realign existing dykes and restore salt marshes to provide natural protection, and (iii) remove existing dykes and allow the system to return to a natural state. The highest priority for managing our salt marshes should be to provide them with sufficient accommodation space into which they can transgress naturally.
Jeff 0llerhead is a member of the Geography and Environment Department at Mount Allison University in Sackville, NB. He is a coastal geomorphologist who studies beaches and salt marshes. In recent years, he has been particularly involved in designing and monitoring salt marsh restorations in the upper Bay of Fundy.
ICLR Friday Forum: Canmore: Working toward a FireSmart community (Feb 26, 2021)
The town of Canmore has been working towards becoming a FireSmart community due to increased wildfire risk from fuel buildup and development in the Bow Valley. Historically, the valley experienced fires every 23-77 years, but exclusion policies since the 1940s have extended cycles. This has resulted in an extreme wildland-urban interface threat. FireSmart planning and accomplishments over the past two decades include landscape, community, and structure-level vegetation management, public education, development legislation, agency cooperation, emergency response planning, and other efforts to reduce wildfire risk as up to 90% of homes are ignited by embers in major fires.
ICLR Friday Forum: What's that sound?: Residents' reaction during a tsunami e...
On January 15, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'What's that sound?: How Residents Responded During a Tsunami Evacuation on Vancouver Island and How Similar Evacuations Might be Improved", led by Ryan P. Reynolds, MGIS, PhD, Post Doctoral Research Fellow, School of Community and Regional Planning, University of B.C.
It’s 3am on an early Tuesday morning, and you wake to the sound of a warning siren. You realize it’s your community’s tsunami warning system, and listen as it broadcasts instructions to evacuate the tsunami inundation zone and seek shelter on higher ground. You aren’t sure if you live in the inundation zone or not. What do you do? Dr. Reynolds conducted parallel door-to-door and online surveys to better understand how Port Alberni residents responded to this exact scenario on an early January morning in 2018. He wanted to learn how and when residents learned about the tsunami warning, what actions they took to respond, and where evacuees sought safety. We also wanted to explore residents’ views on how the evacuation was conducted by emergency officials and how the event may have changed their perceptions of tsunami risk in the community. In this webinar, findings were discussed from over 450 public surveys and interviews with 11 community and regional emergency officials in the Alberni Valley and highlight some best practices to improve future evacuations.
ICLR Friday Forum: Safety + serviceability of mass timber buildings for wind ...
On December 11, 2020 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Ensuring safety and serviceability of tall mass timber buildings for wind', led by Dr. Girma Bitsuamlak of Western University.
The past two decades have seen the continuing global recognition of tall-wood buildings as a sustainable alternative to address urban densification and sprawl issues. Recent design strategies are using wood as the primary construction material for tall buildings. Alan Davenport’s wind-load-chain indicates that the wind response of structures is governed by their aerodynamic features (shape), wind speed and direction (micro-climate), and dynamic properties (weight, stiffness, and damping). The use of wood panels to construct the lateral and gravity systems of the tall-wood building makes them lightweight and less stiff than buildings made from conventional construction materials. Frequent exposure to wind-induced oscillations can cause discomfort to occupants and deflection related serviceability problems.
A coordinated wind research program was launched in January 2016 between FPInnovations, The University of British Columbia, and Western University. The research program includes aerodynamic and aeroelastic investigations of dozens of tall-wood building case studies in the boundary layer wind tunnel laboratory. It also includes a tornadic wind load study at the WindEEE dome. This talk summarized the main findings of the research program. For all case studies, safety and serviceability criteria were satisfied. However, for heights exceeding ninety meters, either aerodynamic optimization, or supplemental damping, or “wind bracing” through different hybridization techniques is required to satisfy the serviceability criteria of the 2015 National Building Code of Canada.
Girma T. Bitsuamlak, PhD, PEng, F CSCE
Professor and Canada Research Chair in Wind Engineering at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Research Director at Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel Lab. (BLWTL) and WindEEE Research Institute, Site leader at SHARCNET, Western University.
ICLR Friday Forum: Reducing the risk of fire following earthquake in B.C. (No...
On November 13, 2020, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Reducing the risk of fire following earthquake in the Lower Mainland, B.C.' led by Dr. Charles Scawthorn.
The Lower Mainland of British Columbia has significant risk due to earthquakes and the fires that follow them. Modeling was performed that accounted for fire department response, water system damage, weather and other conditions and the growth and ultimate final burnt area of fires. The resulting losses are estimated to be from nil to about C$10 billion. These are median estimates – there are significant probabilities of greater or less damage and the range is a function of the specific earthquake scenario (i.e., location and magnitude), time of day, weather and other factors. This loss would be almost entirely insured and would have a very significant impact on the Canadian insurance industry. Fire losses would come on top of shaking and other losses which would be insured to a lesser extent. A leading global reinsurer has stated that losses of this magnitude would likely result in failure of some insurers, would entail secondary and contingent losses, and could conceivably lead to financial contagion.
This risk need not be tolerated and indeed the Province of British Columbia, City of Vancouver, and regional agencies such as Metro Vancouver and BC Hydro have implemented excellent programs to reduce this risk. Further actions however can still be taken to reduce the risk of fire damage and include creation of a regional portable water supply system, providing secondary water supplies for high-rise buildings, and improvements in the region’s energy infrastructure. In this respect two actions have been de rigueur in other regions, and should be considered in the Lower Mainland: (a) a review of the overall seismic vulnerability and reliability of major energy facilities; (b) review of the gas distribution operator’s ability to control and isolate its transmission and distribution networks in the event of a major earthquake, and consideration by the operator of incorporating an automatic gas shutoff device in gas meters.
This webinar presented the modeling and results, and discussed opportunities for mitigation.
Charles Scawthorn (cscawthorn@sparisk.com ) is Principal of SPA Risk LLC and is internationally recognized as an authority for the analysis and mitigation of natural and technological hazards. He retired in 2008 as Professor and head of the Earthquake Disaster Prevention Systems Laboratory, Kyoto University (Japan), has been Visiting Professor at Stanford, Beijing Normal and Waseda (Tokyo) Universities and is now Visiting Researcher, Univ. California at Berkeley. He consults with the global insurance industry, the World Bank, local/state/federal agencies and Global 1000 corporations.
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ICLR Friday Forum: Earthquake Early Warning (April 22, 2022)
On April 22, 2022, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar title 'Earthquake Early Warning", led by Henry Seywerd, Program Manager for the Earthquake Early Warning at Natural Resources Canada.
Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) provides the ability to give warnings seconds to tens of seconds prior to the arrival of strong shaking from a major earthquake allowing the initiation of protective actions. EEW is available in many earthquake-prone countries around the world including Japan, Turkey, Mexico, and the United States. Natural Resources Canada is developing a national earthquake early warning system for Canada to cover the west coast of BC, the corridor from Ottawa to Quebec City, and other areas in Canada. The system will involve the installation of 400-600 new sensor stations, fast communication links, and new data centres for the creation of alert messages. The Canadian EEW system will be closely integrated with that operated by the US Geological Survey and use the same software packages; this will ensure consistent cross border alerts, which is particularly important in SW British Columbia. Alert messages will be distributed to the Canadian public via the National Public Alerting System. In addition, customized alerts will be available for the use of critical infrastructure operators and others to allow them to implement automated protective actions for facilities and equipment. The system is currently under development and expected to be producing alerts in 2024.
Henry Seywerd, Program Manager for the Earthquake Early Warning at Natural Resources Canada, is heading a project to establish a national system for providing rapid warnings to mitigate the effects major earthquakes. He has been involved in emergency management at NRCan for over ten years including managing the refurbishment of the Canada’s seismic monitoring network, and leading its nuclear emergency response team. Prior to joining NRCan Henry has held diverse positions in industry and research including the development of equipment for medical imaging and performing fundamental research in high energy physics.
ICLR Friday Forum: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (March 11, 2022)
On March 11, 2022, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum Webinar titled 'What are some key findings relevant to the Canadian context from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report – Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adoption and Vulnerability?" led by Linda Mortsch.
IPCC Assessment Reports are considered the gold standard for information on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In February 2022, the second of four reports in the sixth assessment cycle - Working Group II’s Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability - was released. It represents the culmination of an exacting process where experts review and assess climate change information in order to provide a synthesis for decision-making that is policy-relevant but not policy prescriptive. This presentation addresses three topics. It begins by describing the unique IPCC assessment process. Next, it highlights key, overarching findings from the report’s Summary for Policy Makers (SPM), which has received governments’ approval. Lastly, it focuses on the North America Chapter providing details relevant to the Canadian context on a wide range of topics such as water resources, forest fires, cities, and economic sectors.
Linda Mortsch has devoted much of her career to addressing climate change issues and facilitating adaptation planning and decision-making in water resources, coastal zones, wetland ecosystems and urban areas. She has expertise collaborating with stakeholders to assess impacts, vulnerability, and resilience, and initiate adaptation. Her 1992 research project “Adapting to climate variability and change in the Great Lakes Basin” was one of the first to engage stakeholders and explore adaptation to climate change in Canada. Since 1989, Linda has played a role in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. For the sixth assessment cycle, she was the Convening Lead Author for the North America chapter. Now retired from Environment and Climate Change Canada, Linda has an adjunct appointment in the Faculty of Environment at the University of Waterloo. She continues to undertake studies that support adaptation capacity building and help meet the challenges of moving from adaptation planning to implementation and from incremental to transformative changes. Linda received the 2009 University of Waterloo, Faculty of Environment, Alumni Achievement Award in recognition of professional achievement and distinguished environmental and community leadership.
ICLR Friday Forum: Functional Recovery for Lifeline Infrastructure Systems (F...
This document discusses recommendations for improving the recovery of lifeline infrastructure systems after earthquakes. It recommends developing a framework that defines recovery time objectives for critical services. This framework would include developing design criteria and standards to meet the recovery objectives for both new and existing buildings and lifeline systems. It also recommends improving pre-disaster planning, education, and access to financial resources to support achieving the recovery objectives. Key lifeline systems like water, power, transportation would be evaluated and upgraded as needed to restore services within the target recovery times.
ICLR Friday Forum: Risk as analysis and risk as emotion (Jan 21, 2022)
On Friday, January 21, 2022 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Risk as analysis and risk as emotion', with Dr. Lucy Jones, founder and Chief Scientist of the Dr. Lucy Jones Center for Science and Society.
Long before engineers existed, human beings evolved the concept of risk and appropriate responses to it. Psychologists have shown that we have parallel processing systems for risk, the analytical and the affective. The analytical is logical and slow, bringing reason and scientific deliberation to hazard management. The affective is our fast, instinctive and intuitive reactions to danger. Our survival has often depended on the affective system and thus we are wired to only act when our emotions are involved. Because unseen risks are more frightening, we take more precautions against nuclear accidents and earthquakes than other risks that are far more likely to kill us, such as car accidents. This talk will explore the various emotions that govern our response to risk and how this information can be used to encourage mitigation.
Dr. Lucy Jones is the founder and Chief Scientist of the Dr. Lucy Jones Center for Science and Society, with a mission to foster the understanding and application of scientific information in the creation of more resilient communities, and a Research Associate at the Seismological Laboratory of Caltech. With a Bachelor of Arts in Chinese Language and Literature from Brown University and a Ph.D. in Geophysics from MIT, Dr. Jones has been active in earthquake research for decades, furthering earthquake risk reduction, including 33 years of federal service with the US Geological Survey. Her work at the USGS included developing the methodology for estimating the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock to a bigger event, leading the creation of a national science strategy for natural hazards research, creating the first American major earthquake drill, the Great ShakeOut, that has expanded to now encompass over 60 million participants around the world in 2019 and writing over 100 published papers on statistical seismology and integrated disaster scenarios.
ICLR Friday Forum: Development, Responsibility + Creation of Flood Risk in Ca...
On December 10, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Development, Responsibility, and the Creation of Flood Risk in Calgary, Alberta', led by Dr. Tim Haney, Mount Royal University.
Why do developers continue to build homes near rivers? Should municipal governments allow it? Should real estate agents be required to disclose a home's location in a floodplain? These are some of the questions we will explore in this talk. Based on interviews with Calgarians affected by the 2013 Southern Alberta Flood, Dr. Tim Haney's research looks at how they view the construction of new housing near Calgary's rivers, how they attribute responsibility for these new forms of risk, how they view developers and municipal government, and what they believe should be done to protect residents from flooding. The talk was based upon Dr. Haney's new article "Development, Responsibility, and the Creation of Urban Hazard Risk," and uses theory from urban political economy to understand and frame the ongoing creation of risk in Calgary.
Timothy J. Haney is Professor of Sociology at Mount Royal University in Calgary, and holds the inaugural Board of Governors Research Chair in Resilience & Sustainability. From 2014 to 2919 he served as the founding Director of the Centre for Community Disaster Research at MRU. He's a sociologist of disaster, environment, cities, and science, and holds a Ph.D. from the University of Oregon. His research covers topics such as risk perception, social inequalities in disaster recovery, climate change beliefs, post-disaster environmental views, and urban politics. His research has been published in journals such as the Journal of Urban Affairs, Environmental Sociology, Disasters, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, and The Sociological Quarterly. Dr. Haney lived in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina, and takes classes of MRU students to New Orleans to learn about disaster recovery while serving the community.
ICLR Friday Forum: Quantifying Risks for Canadian Homeowners Using Quake Cat ...
On November 19, 2021, the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction held a webinar title 'Quantifying Financial Risks for Canadian Homeowners Using Earthquake Catastrophe Models", led by Katsuichiro Goda, PhD, Associate Professor and Canada Research Chair in Multi-hazard Risk Assessment, Faulty of Science, Western University.
Earthquake insurance plays a pivotal role in the recovery from earthquake disasters and protects people from financial risks that damaging earthquakes pose. Currently there are significant earthquake insurance gaps between West (British Columbia) and East (Quebec). This presentation will discuss the quantification of financial insurance risks for Canadian homeowners. Possible causes of the earthquake insurance gap problems, such as risk perception and affordability, are investigated using the state-of-the-art earthquake catastrophe models and consumer survey results.
Dr Katsuichiro Goda is an Associate Professor and a Canada Research Chair in Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment at the University of Western Ontario, Canada. His research is focused on catastrophic earthquake-related multi-hazard risk management from economic and societal viewpoints. He has received international recognition on his high-quality research through various awards and grants, including a prestigious 2012 Charles F. Richter Early Career Award given by the Seismological Society of America and a Humboldt Research Fellowship Award for experienced researchers by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. He received the 2017 IASSAR Early Achievement Research Award given by the International Association for Structural Safety and Reliability.
ICLR Friday Forum: How Media Reports on Disaster Events (October 15, 2021)
On October 15, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Disaster Coverage: How Media Reports on Disaster Events', led by Kevin Quigley, PhD, Scholarly Director, Professor, School of Public Administration, Dalhousie University.
Media narratives play an important role in how we understand disaster events and how we hold public officials to account for their response. While media coverage of high impact-low probability events seems dramatic, in fact, it’s quite nuanced. Different types of events generate different types of coverage. Pandemics generate high volume and alarming media coverage. So, too, do terrorist attacks and industrial failures. In contrast, terrorist plots and natural disasters generate medium- to high-volume coverage that is mildly negative and at times positive towards officials. Media cover cybersecurity very little. This presentation will review the patterns and reflect on their consequences.
Kevin Quigley is a public administration scholar who specializes in risk governance and critical infrastructure, focusing in particular on public sector responses to rare and high impact events, such as pandemics, natural disasters, industrial failures and cyber and terrorist attacks. Dr. Quigley has published two critically acclaimed books on critical infrastructure, including his most recent, 'Too Critical to Fail: How Canada Manages Threats to Critical Infrastructure' (co-authored with Bisset and Mills) which was shortlisted for the 2018 Donner Prize, awarded for the best public policy book by a Canadian.
ICLR Friday Forum: Coastal flood risk assessments (September 24, 2021)
On September 24, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'An evidence-based approach for Coastal Flood Risk Assessments', led by Nicky Hastings, Project Lead for the National Scale Geohazard Risk project within the Public Safety Geoscience Program at Natural Resources Canada
Canada has the longest coastline globally, approximately 243,000 kilometres of diverse geographies and geomorphologies, including fiords, arctic tundra, river delta's, bluffs and sandy or rocky beaches. The impacts of coastal flooding, tsunamis and related hazards vary across these landscapes. Approximately 6,570,000 people live in communities along Canada's coast. Many of them depend on the ocean to make their living in fisheries, shipping or other related industries. Our work applies science and technology (S&T) to advance operational capabilities, assess and model coastal hazards and risks at various scales across Canada. These assessments can better inform decisions that will reduce current and future risks and help communities adapt to a changing climate to become more resilient to these hazards. This presentation provides insights into a three-year collaborative project that brings together researchers and practitioners to work, share, demonstrate, provide guidance and integrate coastal flood models across Canada. These models are used to inform risk reduction decisions build resilience, support return on investment evaluations and buy-in for disaster risk reduction.
Nicky Hastings is the Project Lead for the National Scale Geohazard Risk project within the Public Safety Geoscience Program at Natural Resources Canada. Over the last 14 years, she has worked with a team to develop and adapt risk assessment methods to assess Canada's earthquake and flood risks. Nicky works closely with internal and external partners to better understand how scientific knowledge can inform decision making. Several initiatives are underway in the risk project, including a new five-year project under the Emergency Management Strategy that operationalizes evidence based methods to evaluate and prioritize earthquake risk reduction measures and other natural hazards.
ICLR Friday Forum: Part 1 - Canada’s National Guide for WUI Fires (August 20,...
On Friday, August 20, 2021, ICLR hosted a two-part webinar titled "The National Guide for Wildland Urban Interface Fires (Part 1), and an Impact Analysis of the National WUI Guide (Part 2).' Part one was led by Dr. Noureddine Bénichou, a Principal Research Officer at the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada.
Part 1: Canada’s National Guide for Wildland-Urban Interface Fires
A National Guide for Wildland-Urban Interface Fires, the first of its kind for Canada, was recently published by the National Research Council of Canada as part of the Climate-Resilient Buildings and Core Public Infrastructure (CRBCPI) initiative. The Guide is intended to mitigate the growing risk of damage and loss due to WUI fires by improving the resilience of buildings and communities to wildfire. Drawing on recent wildfire research, existing codes, standards and guidelines, and new insights from international experts, the Guide provides comprehensive support for the WUI areas of Canada, including information on hazard and exposure assessment, vegetation management and construction measures, and community planning, resources and outreach.
ICLR Friday Forum: Part 2 - National WUI Guide Impact Analysis (August 20, 2021)
On Friday, August 20, 2021, ICLR hosted a two-part webinar titled "The National Guide for Wildland Urban Interface Fires (Part 1), and an Impact Analysis of the National WUI Guide (Part 2).' Part two was led by Dr. Keith Porter, co-principal of SPA Risk LLC, an applied-research firm specializing in multihazard disaster risk to buildings and lifelines.
Part 2: National WUI Guide Impact Analysis
With NRC support, ICLR collaborated with SPA Risk LLC and several stakeholders to examine the impacts of following NRC’s WUI Fire Guide. Following the Guide for new construction can produce benefits that exceed the approximately $5/square-foot costs by 32:1, and more when one can rely on vegetation management. Retrofitting existing buildings, with somewhat higher costs, can save up to 14:1 in high-hazard locations. Application of the WUI Guide across Canada would add $125 billion to construction and retrofit costs over 10 years but avoid $500 billion in future losses, create 20,000 jobs, save 2,300 lives, avoid 17,000 nonfatal injuries, and protect $1 billion in tax revenues. The impact analysis suggests that the guide makes good financial sense for Canada.
ICLR Friday Forum: Edmonton's approach to stormwater flood mgmt (July 16, 2021)
On July 16, 2021 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Edmonton's approach to stormwater flood management', led by Susan Ancel, Director of One Water Planning for EPCOR Water Services in Edmonton, Alberta. EPCOR has developed a $1.6 billion Stormwater Integrated Resource Plan (SIRP) to mitigate the impacts of flooding in the community. SIRP envisions all stakeholders – citizens, businesses, industry, the City of Edmonton and EPCOR working together to build a flood-resilient future. The goal is to Slow, Move, Secure, Predict and Respond to flooding events to prevent or reduce the impact. EPCOR’s planned flood mitigations projects will take 20 years to complete. The types of projects that are included in SIRP include dry ponds, low impact development, tunnels, combined sewer separation, outfall control gates, inflow/infiltration reduction, building flood proofing, increased sensors and automatic controls and emergency response equipment. The plan was developed through consultation with Climate Change Adaptation, Insurance and Financial sector groups across North America.
Susan Ancel is the Director of One Water Planning for EPCOR Water Services in Edmonton, Alberta. In her prior role, she was Director of Stormwater Strategies, where she was responsible for developing an Integrated Resource Plan for flood mitigation that considered capital and operational risk mitigation planning, as well as the interrelationships between utilities, insurance, disaster response agencies and the public. Prior to her Stormwater Strategies role she was the Director of Water Distribution and Transmission for EPCOR. Susan is a Mechanical engineer with over 30 years’ experience with the municipal utility sector. She has also served on numerous industry committees including the Board of Directors for the Geospatial Information Technology Association (GITA) from 2001 to 2007 and was President of GITA in 2006. She currently serves on the Board of Directors for Canadian Water Network.
ICLR Friday Forum: Floodplain mapping over Canada: performance at inundation...
ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar on June 18, 2021 titled 'Floodplain mapping over Canada: Investigating performance at inundation level and understanding dynamics of population flood exposure', led by Dr. Slobodan Simonovic, Director of Engineering Studies, ICLR/Professor Emeritus, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Western University.
Surface runoff estimates from atmospheric re-analysis datasets are increasingly preferred by hydrologists for modelling floods in regions where traditional observations are not sufficiently available. This presentation explores the fidelity of four widely used re-analyses runoff products as hydraulic forcings to a flood inundation model in describing inundation dynamics over Canada. The re-analysis obtained runoff is used with the Catchment-based Macroscale Floodplain (CaMa-Flood) global hydrodynamic model, to derive high-resolution floodplain maps for 100 and 200-yr return periods. The floodplain maps derived from each reanalysis dataset are compared with the regional developed or ‘benchmark floodplain maps’ over six selected flood-prone basins (test basins) in Canada through a set of performance statistics. Using the superior reanalysis runoff dataset, a few historic flood events over the test basins are simulated and subsequently compared with MODIS satellite-derived floodplain information. We notice that more than 75% of the inundation is precisely captured for these events.
The second part of the presentation will focus on the use of four global population datasets (together with census data from Statistics Canada as the reference), their performances and skill in flood exposure assessment across Canada. The flood exposure is quantified based on a set of floodplain maps for Canada derived from the CaMa-Flood global flood model. To obtain further insights at the regional level, the methodology is implemented over six flood-prone River Basins in Canada. We find that about 9% (3.31 million) and 11% (3.90 million) of the Canadian population resides within 1 in 100-yr and 1 in 200-yr floodplains.
This work (i) strongly supports the need for careful selection of a re-analysis dataset while performing inundation modelling for large regions: and (ii) also highlights the need for careful selection of population datasets for preventing further amplification of uncertainties in flood risk. The results derived from this study may be useful for flood risk management and contribute to understanding other disaster impacts on human-environment interrelationships.
ICLR Friday Forum: Climate Disclosure, Litigation & Finance (May 21, 2021)
On May 21, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Climate Disclosure, Litigation and Finance'"Climate Disclosure, Litigation and Finance' is a forthcoming chapter in 'Canada in a Changing Climate: National Issues'. In this webinar, chapter authors Paul Kovacs, Gordon McBean, Gordon Beal, Maryam Golnaraghi, Pat Koval and Bohan Li examined the evolving climate risks for businesses and governments.
Climate change is now widely regarded as an environmental and an economic issue. While the policy discussion about climate change emphasizes the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to better cope with the impact of extreme events, the business community is increasingly focused on the physical and transition risks and opportunities presented by climate change. The research team will discuss how managing the risks and opportunities associated with climate change affect a company’s ability to access capital, deliver products and services, hire and retain employees and achieve positive financial performance.
Paul Kovacs is the Executive Director of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction.
Professor Emeritus Gordon McBean is with the ICLR and Department of Geography and Environment, Western University and the past President of the International Council for Science and former ADM of the atmospheric component of Environment Canada.
Gordon Beal, CPA, CA, M.Ed., is the Vice President of Research Guidance and Support for Chartered Professional Accountants Canada and a member of Canada’s National Climate Change Adaptation Platform Plenary.
Dr. Maryam Golnaraghi is the Director of Climate Change and Environment at The Geneva Association, a platform of Group CEOs of largest insurance companies, a non-resident senior fellow at The Atlantic Council and serves on a number of boards and advisory councils in the US, Canada and the UK.
Patricia Koval, JD, is a Board Director of a number of companies in the United States and Canada, a former partner of a major Canadian law firm, and a member of the Ontario Advisory Panel on Climate Change.
Dr. Bohan Li is a research associate at the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction.
ICLR wildfire season forecast 2021 (May 20, 2021)
This is a forecast of the 2021 wildfire season led by Richard Carr from the Canadian Forest Service. The webinar summarizes the current conditions in Canada and provided a forecast for the 2021 wildfire season.
ICLR Friday Forum: Driving resilience forward with research (April 16, 2021)
On April 16, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Narrow the Path of Damage: Driving resilience forward with research', led by Anne Cope, PhD, Chief Engineer at the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety.
Severe weather disrupts lives, displaces families and drives financial loss. Anne Cope, PhD, Chief Engineer at IBHS, discussed the Institute’s latest research investigating wind, wind-driven rain, hail, and wildfire. From how wildfires burn to how hail damages a roof, top-tier science delivers actionable insights for the insurance industry and homeowners. Anne will demonstrate how IBHS is working to motivate resilience through research to drive down losses and support thriving communities.
Anne D. Cope, PhD, P.E., Chief Engineer: Dr. Anne Cope joined IBHS in 2009 just a few months before the groundbreaking for the construction of the IBHS Research Center in Richburg, South Carolina. As the Chief Engineer, she leads the development of research programs to improve the performance of structures in hurricanes, wildfires, severe thunderstorms, and hailstorms as well as the team of engineers, scientists, and skilled craftsman who conduct research on full-scale homes and commercial buildings. She is responsible for the team’s implementation of research findings into building codes and standards.
Prior to joining IBHS, Dr. Cope was a project manager and structural engineer with Reynolds, Smith & Hills, Inc., designing projects for NASA, Department of Defense, and commercial launch operations. Dr. Cope’s research encompasses topics ranging from the full-scale simulation of wind effects on buildings to detailed studies of the vulnerabilities of buildings to natural hazards and the development of damage prediction models. She is also a proud veteran of the United States Army. She earned her bachelor’s and master’s degrees in civil engineering from Clemson University, and her doctorate from the University of Florida. She is a registered professional engineer in Florida and South Carolina.
ICLR Friday Forum: Tantramar Marshes Flooding (March 19, 2021)
On Friday, March 19, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Solutions for Tantramar marshes flooding', led by Dr. Jeff 0llerhead, Professor, Geography and Environment Department, Mount Allison University.
Most former salt marshes in the Tantramar region of Atlantic Canada are now protected by dykes and are used primarily for agriculture. This has been true for decades to centuries and, as such, their elevation can be as much as 2 m below that of undyked salt marshes in the region. The key environmental drivers shaping the marshes are changing over time with climate change. The rate of relative sea level (RSL) rise is accelerating and there is some evidence that storms are becoming more frequent and sea ice is diminishing. The risk of a catastrophic dyke failure and associated flooding increases each year. Risk from inland flooding is also increasing.
Possible solutions include a combination of: (i) raise and reenforce the dyke system, (ii) realign existing dykes and restore salt marshes to provide natural protection, and (iii) remove existing dykes and allow the system to return to a natural state. The highest priority for managing our salt marshes should be to provide them with sufficient accommodation space into which they can transgress naturally.
Jeff 0llerhead is a member of the Geography and Environment Department at Mount Allison University in Sackville, NB. He is a coastal geomorphologist who studies beaches and salt marshes. In recent years, he has been particularly involved in designing and monitoring salt marsh restorations in the upper Bay of Fundy.
ICLR Friday Forum: Canmore: Working toward a FireSmart community (Feb 26, 2021)
The town of Canmore has been working towards becoming a FireSmart community due to increased wildfire risk from fuel buildup and development in the Bow Valley. Historically, the valley experienced fires every 23-77 years, but exclusion policies since the 1940s have extended cycles. This has resulted in an extreme wildland-urban interface threat. FireSmart planning and accomplishments over the past two decades include landscape, community, and structure-level vegetation management, public education, development legislation, agency cooperation, emergency response planning, and other efforts to reduce wildfire risk as up to 90% of homes are ignited by embers in major fires.
ICLR Friday Forum: What's that sound?: Residents' reaction during a tsunami e...
On January 15, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'What's that sound?: How Residents Responded During a Tsunami Evacuation on Vancouver Island and How Similar Evacuations Might be Improved", led by Ryan P. Reynolds, MGIS, PhD, Post Doctoral Research Fellow, School of Community and Regional Planning, University of B.C.
It’s 3am on an early Tuesday morning, and you wake to the sound of a warning siren. You realize it’s your community’s tsunami warning system, and listen as it broadcasts instructions to evacuate the tsunami inundation zone and seek shelter on higher ground. You aren’t sure if you live in the inundation zone or not. What do you do? Dr. Reynolds conducted parallel door-to-door and online surveys to better understand how Port Alberni residents responded to this exact scenario on an early January morning in 2018. He wanted to learn how and when residents learned about the tsunami warning, what actions they took to respond, and where evacuees sought safety. We also wanted to explore residents’ views on how the evacuation was conducted by emergency officials and how the event may have changed their perceptions of tsunami risk in the community. In this webinar, findings were discussed from over 450 public surveys and interviews with 11 community and regional emergency officials in the Alberni Valley and highlight some best practices to improve future evacuations.
ICLR Friday Forum: Safety + serviceability of mass timber buildings for wind ...
On December 11, 2020 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Ensuring safety and serviceability of tall mass timber buildings for wind', led by Dr. Girma Bitsuamlak of Western University.
The past two decades have seen the continuing global recognition of tall-wood buildings as a sustainable alternative to address urban densification and sprawl issues. Recent design strategies are using wood as the primary construction material for tall buildings. Alan Davenport’s wind-load-chain indicates that the wind response of structures is governed by their aerodynamic features (shape), wind speed and direction (micro-climate), and dynamic properties (weight, stiffness, and damping). The use of wood panels to construct the lateral and gravity systems of the tall-wood building makes them lightweight and less stiff than buildings made from conventional construction materials. Frequent exposure to wind-induced oscillations can cause discomfort to occupants and deflection related serviceability problems.
A coordinated wind research program was launched in January 2016 between FPInnovations, The University of British Columbia, and Western University. The research program includes aerodynamic and aeroelastic investigations of dozens of tall-wood building case studies in the boundary layer wind tunnel laboratory. It also includes a tornadic wind load study at the WindEEE dome. This talk summarized the main findings of the research program. For all case studies, safety and serviceability criteria were satisfied. However, for heights exceeding ninety meters, either aerodynamic optimization, or supplemental damping, or “wind bracing” through different hybridization techniques is required to satisfy the serviceability criteria of the 2015 National Building Code of Canada.
Girma T. Bitsuamlak, PhD, PEng, F CSCE
Professor and Canada Research Chair in Wind Engineering at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Research Director at Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel Lab. (BLWTL) and WindEEE Research Institute, Site leader at SHARCNET, Western University.
ICLR Friday Forum: Reducing the risk of fire following earthquake in B.C. (No...
On November 13, 2020, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Reducing the risk of fire following earthquake in the Lower Mainland, B.C.' led by Dr. Charles Scawthorn.
The Lower Mainland of British Columbia has significant risk due to earthquakes and the fires that follow them. Modeling was performed that accounted for fire department response, water system damage, weather and other conditions and the growth and ultimate final burnt area of fires. The resulting losses are estimated to be from nil to about C$10 billion. These are median estimates – there are significant probabilities of greater or less damage and the range is a function of the specific earthquake scenario (i.e., location and magnitude), time of day, weather and other factors. This loss would be almost entirely insured and would have a very significant impact on the Canadian insurance industry. Fire losses would come on top of shaking and other losses which would be insured to a lesser extent. A leading global reinsurer has stated that losses of this magnitude would likely result in failure of some insurers, would entail secondary and contingent losses, and could conceivably lead to financial contagion.
This risk need not be tolerated and indeed the Province of British Columbia, City of Vancouver, and regional agencies such as Metro Vancouver and BC Hydro have implemented excellent programs to reduce this risk. Further actions however can still be taken to reduce the risk of fire damage and include creation of a regional portable water supply system, providing secondary water supplies for high-rise buildings, and improvements in the region’s energy infrastructure. In this respect two actions have been de rigueur in other regions, and should be considered in the Lower Mainland: (a) a review of the overall seismic vulnerability and reliability of major energy facilities; (b) review of the gas distribution operator’s ability to control and isolate its transmission and distribution networks in the event of a major earthquake, and consideration by the operator of incorporating an automatic gas shutoff device in gas meters.
This webinar presented the modeling and results, and discussed opportunities for mitigation.
Charles Scawthorn (cscawthorn@sparisk.com ) is Principal of SPA Risk LLC and is internationally recognized as an authority for the analysis and mitigation of natural and technological hazards. He retired in 2008 as Professor and head of the Earthquake Disaster Prevention Systems Laboratory, Kyoto University (Japan), has been Visiting Professor at Stanford, Beijing Normal and Waseda (Tokyo) Universities and is now Visiting Researcher, Univ. California at Berkeley. He consults with the global insurance industry, the World Bank, local/state/federal agencies and Global 1000 corporations.
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ICLR Friday Forum: Ottawa/Gatineau tornado damage surveys (October 12, 2018)
- 1. The Ottawa-Gatineau Tornado Outbreak: Observations from damage surveys following the storm 1 Emilio Hong, MESc. Aaron Jaffe, BESc. Northern Tornadoes Project Faculty of Engineering Western University London, ON ICLR Friday Forum October 12, 2018
- 2. Overview 2 • September 21st , 2018 Ottawa Area Tornadoes • Damage Assessment Tools • Damage Survey • Dunrobin • Gatineau • Nepean • Summary
- 3. 3 September 21st Tornadoes • Outbreak of 6 tornadoes • 1 EF-3 tornado and 1 EF-2 tornado • 4 other tornadoes categorized as EF-1 • 4 Tornadoes started in Ontario, 2 in Quebec EF Rating EF-Scale Wind Speed 0 90-130 1 135-175 2 180-220 3 225-265 4 270-310 5 315+
- 4. 4
- 5. Event Summary Preliminary Analysis – Sept. 21 Confirmed Tornadoes Start Time (Approx.) Location(s) Estimated Path Length Estimated Max Width Current EF Rating 3:30 PM Baskatong Reservoir 18 km EF-1 3:50 PM Otter Lake 11 km EF-1 3:50 PM Calabogie/White Lake 36 km EF-1 4:30 PM Kinburn/Dunrobin/Gatineau 49 km 1.3 km EF-3 4:40 PM Val-des-Bois 27 km EF-1 5:50 PM Nepean (Ottawa) 23 km 750 m EF-2
- 6. Meteorology Synoptic Conditions 21-Sep 18 UTC WPC Analysis Surface Upper Air – 300 hPa Upper Air – 500 hPa 21-Sep 19 UTC SPC Mesoanalysis 21-Sep 19 UTC SPC Mesoanalysis
- 7. Meteorology Supercell Environment Wind shear Instability Lifting Mechanism MoistureSBCAPE ~2000 Jkg-1 Strong sustained updraft CIN ~0 Jkg-1 Discrete supercells initiated ahead of front LCL ~750 m AGL Cloud base, supercell tornadoes typically 600-800 m AGL EBS ~60 kt / 0-3 km SRH ~300-600 m2s-2 / 0-1 km SRH ~300-500 m2s-2 Upper and low level jets present, substantial wind shear for mesocyclone development, long- lived thunderstorms Cold Front Storms initiated ahead of and along surface boundary and pressure trough Upper Jet Exit Region Divergence aloft Severe Thunderstorms
- 8. Radar Observations EF-1 – Calabogie/White Lake, EF-3 – Kinburn/Dunrobin/Gatineau • ~ 3:30 PM - Supercell structure visible west of Calabogie, continued to travel eastward for over 1.5 hrs (140+ km) • ~3:50 PM - Tornado formed west of Calabogie and continued through to White Lake, dissipating by 4:25 PM • ~4:35 PM - Second tornado formed SW of Kinburn, tracking NE directly through Dunrobin and across the Ottawa River into Gatineau • ~5:10 PM – Tornado dissipates in Gatineau, supercell continues to track further to NE, storm structure weakens and rotation dissipates by 5:30 PM 2041 UTC (04:51 PM EDT) Radial Velocity Reflectivity
- 9. Radar Observations EF-2 – Nepean (Ottawa) • ~5:00 PM – Storm cell develops SW of Ottawa near Carleton Place • ~5:40 PM – Rotation detected as storm becomes small supercell near Kanata (~15 km SE of Dunrobin); continues to track NE for 30 min (~30 km) • ~5:50 PM – Tornado formed west of Nepean (south of downtown Ottawa), quickly moving NE through mostly residential areas • ~ 6:10 PM – Tornado dissipates and storm structure weakens and rotation dissipates 2153 UTC (05:53 PM EDT) Radial Velocity Reflectivity
- 10. Event Summary Preliminary Analysis – Sept. 21 • ECCC forecasters warned of potential for severe weather, including issuing Special Weather Statements one day prior to outbreak • Through the afternoon and early evening of Sept. 21, several discrete supercells tracked through Eastern ON and Southern QC • Watches and warnings issued throughout the day as storms initiated ahead of the cold front in early afternoon • Outbreak of six tornadoes touching down between 3:30 – 6:10 PM • No fatalities, 23 injuries reported • 2000+ dwellings (ranging from single-apartment units to detached single- family homes) damaged or destroyed • Significant damage to electrical infrastructure in urban areas, resulting in significant power outages lasting hours to days • Ground damage surveys completed Sept. 22-24 in Eastern ON and Gatineau, QC • Analysis of satellite imagery available on Sept. 24 confirmed 3 additional tornadoes in Quebec
- 12. Survey Teams • Northern Tornadoes Project Team • David Sills and Lesley Elliot (Environment Canada) • Emilio Hong and Aaron Jaffe (Western University) • Environment Canada Team • Ontario Storm Prediction Center (OSPC) • Quebec Storm Prediction Center (QSPC) 12
- 13. 13 • Identify and observe every tornado occurring in Canada • Capture all information from these events • Archive tornado data for public usage Northern Tornadoes Project
- 14. 14 • Estimate bounds of the tornado • Observe and document all possible observable damage • Talk to witnesses for further details • Analyze details of structures Ground Survey Objectives
- 15. Current Tools • GPS cameras • Aerial Surveys • ArcGIS and Collector App • Satellite imagery • Drone imagery 15
- 16. 16 Ottawa
- 17. Dunrobin 17
- 18. 18
- 19. 19
- 20. 20
- 21. 21
- 22. 22
- 23. 23
- 24. 24
- 25. 25
- 26. 26
- 27. 27
- 28. 28
- 29. 29
- 30. 30
- 31. 31
- 32. 32
- 33. 33
- 34. 34
- 35. 35
- 36. 36
- 37. Gatineau • Same tornado that caused EF3 damage in Dunrobin crossed the Ottawa River and caused significant damage in Gatineau, QC • 14 injured, 2 severely • 215 buildings damaged or destroyed • 100,000 residents without power 37 Dunrobin Gatineau
- 38. Gatineau • Map shows damage locations and areas surveyed • Surveyed area of 800x400 metres • EF3 damage with maximum wind speeds around 240 km/h 38
- 39. Gatineau 39
- 41. Low-Rise Apartment Buildings 41 https://www.google.com/maps DOD Damage Description EXP LB UB 1 Threshold of visible damage 120 100 155 2 Loss of roof covering (up to 20%) 160 130 195 3 Uplift of roof decking; significant loss of roof covering (more than 20%) 200 170 235 4 Uplift or collapse of roof structure leaving most walls standing 220 195 255 5 Most top story walls collapsed 255 220 295 6 Almost total destruction of top two stories 290 250 330
- 46. Vehicles 46
- 51. Nepean • Second powerful tornado from the outbreak hit Ottawa suburb of Nepean • Several hundred homes damaged • Widespread power outages 51
- 52. Nepean • Tornado path length: 23 km • Tornado path width: 750 m • EF2 damage with maximum wind speeds around 200 km/h 52
- 53. Kanata 53
- 54. Kanata 54
- 56. Bells Corners 56
- 57. Bells Corners 57
- 65. Craig Henry 65
- 66. Craig Henry 66 DOD Damage Description EXP LB UB 1 Threshold of visible damage 105 85 130 2 Loss of roof covering material (up to 20%), gutters and/or awning; loss of vinyl or metal siding 125 100 155 3 Broken glass in doors and windows 155 125 185 4 Uplift of roof deck and loss of significant roof covering material (more than 20%); collapse of chimney; garage doors collapse inward; failure of porch or carport 155 130 185 5 Entire house shifts off foundation 195 165 225 6 Large sections of roof structure removed (more than 50%); most walls remain standing 195 165 230 7 Exterior walls collapsed 210 180 245 8 Most walls collapsed, except small interior rooms 245 205 285 9 All walls collapsed 275 230 320 10 Destruction of engineered and/or well- constructed residence; slab swept clean 320 265 355
- 67. Craig Henry 67
- 68. Tanglewood 68
- 69. Tanglewood 69
- 70. Tanglewood • Repairs to the Tanglewood Hydro One power substation that was largely responsible for the Ottawa-Gatineau power outages is expected to take weeks 70 https://twitter.com/hydroottawa/status
- 71. East End 71
- 72. Main Findings • Damage surveying of the Nepean tracks and thresholds for the Kinburn-Dunrobin-Gatineau storms • Signs leading to EF-3 categorization in Dunrobin from surrounding structures • Nepean damage survey and the documentation of hundreds of buildings in the neighbourhood • 2 nail connections in Gatineau and the resulting failures due to these connections 72
- 73. What we learned • Challenges of getting on site and accessing all points • Drone no-fly zones and the flying restrictions • How to spend our time surveying • Coordination of different teams and parties 73
- 74. Moving Forward • Aerial surveys to be conducted for the damage tracks and study of the resulting tracks • Data basing the information and storing for archiving purposes • Engineering analysis of structures such as engineered structures, house failures and debris flow patterns • Tree fall and the patterns for tornado paths. 74
- 75. Acknowledgements • Northern Tornadoes Projects Team • Gregory Kopp (Western University) and David Sills (Environment Canada) • Lesley Elliot • Sarah Stevenson and Connell Miller • Western Libraries • Environment Canada teams • Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction 75
- 76. Thank You 76