1. Running head: Planning, Forecasting, Recruitment And Selection In HRM 1
Planning, Forecasting, Recruitment and Selection in Human Resources Management
The Initial Stage of the Recruiting Process
by
Ardavan A. Shahroodi
HRM 6020 Strategic Recruiting, Training, and Performance Management
Saturday, March 21, 2015

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Abstract
Planning, forecasting, recruitment and selection compose the initial stage of the recruiting
process in human resources management. Here, organizations must engage in competent and
comprehensive planning and forecasting actions aligned with their strategic objectives in order
to acquire an accurate understanding regarding their respective present and future personnel
needs. On the basis of this invaluable information, organizations are able to intelligently embark
on their respective recruitment and selection endeavors. This research paper investigates the
character and ingredients of the aforementioned four phases in the initial stage of the recruiting
process. Organizations must be consistently conscious that successful recruiting efforts are built
upon extremely complex, interdependent, interrelated and largely sequential phases and practices
that are each indispensable in the effective implementation of the other components.

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Planning, Forecasting, Recruitment and Selection in Human Resources Management
An effectively planned, systematically organized and competently executed recruiting
process enables organizations to thoroughly align their present and future human resources needs
with their strategic objectives. In actuality, the initial stage of the recruiting process must be
composed of four interdependent phases namely planning, forecasting, recruitment and selection
and may be characterized by all organizational actions intended to “identify, attract, and
influence the job choices of competent applicants” (Ployhart, 2006, p. 869). In essence, the act
of recruiting “entails seeking and attracting a pool of applicants from which qualified candidates
for job vacancies can be chosen” (York, 2010, p. 85). The goal of attracting in the recruiting
process must be understood as the “ability to generate a large pool of qualified applicants”
(York, 2010, p. 85) thereby allowing the “organization to be more selective in making hiring
decisions” (p. 85). This paper attempts to illustrate the intricate and complex nature of the
aforementioned four phases in addition to emphasizing the indispensable importance of each
individual phase in the overall success of the recruiting process.
Planning and Forecasting
At the onset of the recruiting process, the job analysis vehicle “provides information
about what the job entails and what human characteristics are required to perform these
activities. This information, in the form of job descriptions and specifications, helps managers
decide what sort of people to recruit and hire” (Dessler, 2008, p. 126). In this light, job
descriptions “determine what are the essential and other tasks, duties, and responsibilities that
comprise the job, the reporting relationships, and the working conditions” (York, 2010, p. 55).

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In addition, job specifications “determine what knowledge, skills, abilities, and experience are
required for the job” (York, 2010, p. 55).
The creation of the job analysis information prepares the organization to embark on the
personnel planning and forecasting stage of the recruiting process. Personnel planning must
emanate “from the firm’s strategic plans” (Dessler, 2008, p. 166) such as decisions “to enter new
businesses, build new plants, or reduce costs” (p. 166). Actions related to human resources
planning are intended to “forecast an organization’s labor demands (requirements) and internal
labor supply (availabilities), to compare these projections to determine employment gaps, and to
develop action plans for addressing these gaps” (Caruth et al, 2009, p. 117). Human resources
(HR) planning may also be understood as “a systematic process for setting policies governing the
acquisition, use, and disposition of personnel in order to achieve organizational objectives”
(Caruth et al, 2009, p. 117).
Furthermore, HR planning is defined as being concerned with “determining the human
resource needs of an organization and ensuring that the organization has the right number of
qualified people in the right jobs at the right time” (Caruth et al, 2009, p. 117). HR planning is
composed of three stages. In the first stage called the “requirements” (Caruth et al, 2009, p. 118)
phase, planning involves estimating or forecasting “the number and kinds of employees the firm
will need in the future” (p. 118). In the second stage, HR planning “entails the determination of
the availability of qualified people to staff the organization of the future” (Caruth et al, 2009, p.
118). Lastly, HR planning is concerned with the “development of specific courses of action to
assure the institution that it will have the appropriate number and kind of people in the right
places at the right times to carry out the strategic business plan” (Caruth et al, 2009, p. 118).

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In the requirements stage of the HR planning process, the organization “attempts to
ascertain the supply of and demand for various types of human resources. The primary goal is to
predict areas within the organization where there will be future labor shortages and surpluses”
(Noe et al, 2013, p. 195). Here, “statistical methods or judgmental methods” (Noe et al, 2013, p.
195) may be utilized in order to forecast the labor or talent “supply and demand” (p. 195) needs
of the organization. Noe et al (2013) observe that statistical methods are “excellent for capturing
historic trends in a company’s demand for labor, and under the right conditions they give
predictions that are much more precise than those that could be achieved through subjective
judgement” (p. 195).
Nevertheless, Noe et al (2013) emphasize that these statistical methods in conditions with
“no historical precedence…are of little use” (p. 195). In such situations, organizations must rely
on the “complementary strengths and weaknesses” (Noe et al, 2013, p. 195) of both statistical
and judgmental methods of forecasting in order to create a “balanced approach” (p. 195) in HR
planning. The practice of forecasting may involve an evaluation of future “revenues and then,
from that, estimate the size of the staff required to achieve this sales volume” (Dessler, 2008, p.
167) in combinations with other considerations such as “projected turnover (resignations or
dismissals), decisions to upgrade (or downgrade) products or services, technological changes,
and…financial resources” (p. 167).
Trend analysis is one forecasting method “studying variations” (Dessler, 2008, p. 167) in
an organization’s “employment levels over the last few years” (p. 167) in order to “identify
trends that might continue into the future” (p. 167). A second instrument called the ratio
analysis “forecasts based on the historical ratio between (1) some casual factor (like sales
volume) and (2) the number of employees required (for instance, number of salespeople)”

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(Dessler, 2008, p. 168). A third method of forecasting called the scatter plot “shows graphically
how two variable—such as a measure of business activity like sales, and your firm’s staffing
levels—are related” (Dessler, 2008, p. 168). Lastly, in computerized forecasts, additional
“variables” (Dessler, 2008, p. 169) are included in “personnel projections” (p. 169) such as
“direct labor hours required to produce one unit of product” (p. 169).
In the availability phase of the HR planning process, the organization needs to assess if
“the demand for employees may be met by either obtaining people from within the company
[internal candidates] or resorting to external sources [external candidates] of supply, or both”
(Caruth et al, 2009, p. 128). With respect to internal candidates, HR planning instruments such
as “qualification inventories” (Dessler, 2008, p. 170), “skills inventories” (Caruth et al, 2009, p.
128), “management inventories” (Caruth et al, 2009, p. 129), “personnel replacement charts”
(Dessler, 2008, p. 170) and “position replacement card” (p. 170) enable organizations to
“identify available internal talent so that this talent can be matched with the company’s needs”
(Caruth et al, 2009, p. 128). With respect to forecasting the supply of outside candidates,
organizations may rely on projections from reputable sources such as the “U.S. Congressional
Budget Office” (Dessler, 2008, p. 171), the “Bureau of Labor Statistics” (p. 171), “O*NET” (p.
172) and the “U.S. Department of Labor/Occupational Outlook Quarterly” (p. 172).
In the last “action-oriented” (Caruth et al, 2009, p. 131) phase of HR planning,
organizations need to activate a “balance between the number and kind of employees needed and
the number and kind available” (p. 131). Here, in conditions when “demand is less than supply”
(Caruth et al, 2009, p. 132), organizations may resort to “restricted hiring/reduced hours/job
sharing/early retirement/[and] layoffs” (p. 132). On the other hand, when “demand is greater
than supply” (Caruth et al, 2009, p. 133), organizations may decide to utilize “creative

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recruiting/compensation incentives/training programs [and] lowering of employment
standards/coupled with training programs ” (p. 133).
Recruitment
In search of generating a pool of qualified candidates, the recruiting process may involve
the consideration of both internal and external sources. Recruitment form internal sources will
generate “applicants who are well known to the firm” (Noe et al, 2013, p. 216), are “relatively
knowledgeable about the company’s vacancies” (p. 216) and “may also be more committed to
the company (Dessler, 2008, p. 176). In reality, selecting from internal sources, may translate
into a “cheaper and faster” (Noe et al, 2013, p. 216) recruitment activity and potentially lift
morale “if employees see promotions as rewards for loyalty and competence” (Dessler, 2008, p.
176). On the other hand, recruiting solely from internal sources may not yield any viable
qualified candidates. Secondly, recruiting from external sources may result in candidates with
“new ideas and new ways of doing business” (Noe et al, 2013, p. 216). Thirdly, external sources
may offer candidates that could potentially “strengthen one’s own company and weaken one’s
competitors at the same time” (Noe et al, 2013, p. 216).
In locating internal candidates, organizations may resort to utilizing “job posting,
personnel records, and skills banks [discussed previously in the availability phase of the HR
planning process]” (Dessler, 2008, p. 177). In addition, internal recruiting may also include
rehiring former associates who are “known quantities (more or less), and are already familiar
with the company’s culture, style, and ways of doing things” (Dessler, 2008, p. 177).
Furthermore, internal recruiting may also be expressed in the form of succession planning that is
the “ongoing process of systematically identifying, assessing, and developing organizational

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leadership to enhance performance” (Dessler, 2008, p. 177). Here, in succession planning,
organizations attempt to “identify and develop employees to fill specific slots” (Dessler, 2008, p.
177) whereas talent management “involves identifying, recruiting, hiring and developing high
potential employees” (p. 177).
Recruitment from outside/external sources may take the organization in numerous
directions. Here, some applicants who are labeled as direct/walk-ins may “apply for a vacancy
without prompting” (Noe et al, 2013, p. 217) having “to some extent already [been] sold on the
organization” (p. 217). Moreover, a number of applicants are the result of referrals from
existing employees. Many organizations believe that referrals “tend to generate high-quality
candidates” (Dessler, 2008, p. 191). As the result of being unable to “fill all their vacancies with
direct applications and referrals” (Noe et al, 2013, p. 217) many organizations place
advertisements in newspapers and “trade and professional journals” (Dessler, 2008, p. 182).
In addition, increasingly the Internet has evolved into being a dominant medium in
recruitment with tools such as an “organization’s own Web page/career networking site
LinkedIn/ job sites such as Monster.com/blogs/Podcasts/Social networking sites such as
Facebook” (Noe et al, 2013, pp. 219-220) and recruitment applications in smart phones.
Organizations may also search for candidates through working with “public employment
agencies/primarily the blue-collar market; private employment agencies/white-collar labor
market/executive search firms/headhunters” (Noe et al, 2013, p. 221) or “supplement their
permanent workforces by hiring contingent or temporary workers” (Dessler, 2008, p. 185) from
“temp agencies” (p. 185). Lastly, many employers endeavor to recruit form colleges and
universities through “on-campus interviewing…college internship program” (Noe et al, 2013, p.
221) and attending “university job fairs” (p. 221).

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Selection
In the selection phase of the recruiting process, the organization selects “from a group of
applicants the individual deemed to be best qualified for a particular job opening” (Caruth et al,
2009, p. 159). Here, the effectiveness of an organization’s recruitment efforts, “significantly
affects the efficiency and effectiveness of selection. An adequate pool of applicants provides an
organization with greater latitude in choosing employees; an inadequate pool reduces the amount
of latitude and may result in the employment of marginally qualified candidates” (Caruth et al,
2009, p. 159). In general, selection related activities “proceeds through five stages: (I) initial
screening, (II) secondary screening, (III) candidacy, (IV) verification, and (V) final decision”
(Caruth et al, 2009, p. 160). These five stages are identified by instruments such as employment
applications, resumes, screening interviews, employment testing, employment interviews and
background checks (Caruth et al, 2009, pp. 164-177) respectively.
An important ingredient of the selection phase is the validity of the “assessment methods”
(Dessler, 2008, p. 229) that are being utilized in order to appraise the knowledge, skills, abilities
and potential of applicants. Here, validity is defined as “the extent to which performance on the
measure is related to performance on the job” (Noe et al, 2013, p. 236). Schmidt and Hunter
(1998) have observed that certain assessment methods such as cognitive ability tests (.51),
structured interviews (.51), work samples (.54) and job knowledge tests (.48) possess higher
“validity coefficients” (as cited in Ryan & Tippins, 2004, pp.307-308) followed by integrity tests
(.41) and assessment centers (.37). Here, personality tests in particular are “able to determine if
meaningful relationships between specific personality constructs (i.e. innovation…) and job
performance at the leadership level exit” (McEntire & Green-Shortridge, 2011, p. 270). Ployhart
(2006) also holds that “well-developed predictors (e.g. cognitive ability, interviews, personality,

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assessment centers) have empirical relationships with job performance” (p. 883).
However, Ployhart (2006) warns that “employers must recognize that the sole use of cognitive
ability [tests] may impair their ability to hire a diverse workforce” (p. 878). Moreover, in
regards to selection procedures and assessment methods, “if the selection ratio of the minority
group is less than 80% of the selection ratio of the majority group (e.g., women vs. men) then the
test has adverse impact, which is evidence of discrimination” (York, 2010, p. 115). In these
conditions, “an organization’s defense is to show that the test is valid (i.e., that there is a
statistically significant correlation between the test scores and job performance” (York, 2010, p.
115). Ryan and Tippins (2004) observe that in the selection process,
“The HR professional confronts an extremely perplexing dilemma. The two goals of
identifying good candidates accurately and building a diverse workforce are difficult to
reconcile. Some of the more effective strategies such as using only non-cognitive measures, also
reduce the validity of the selection process. Thus the HR professional can be faced with a
difficult choice—maximizing the accuracy of predictions made on the basis of tests or reducing
adverse impact” (p. 313).
As a result, Ryan and Tippins (2004) recommend that “the HR manager must pursue
several avenues to achieve [both of] these goals” [accuracy of predictions and reducing adverse
impact] (p. 313).
Conclusion
The effectiveness of a recruiting process is dependent on numerous extremely
complicated ingredients. Long before endeavoring to attract qualified candidates, an
organization must engage in planning and forecasting its personnel needs in commensurate with

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its strategic objectives. This exercise begins with the job analysis activity offering the
organization a thorough understanding of optimum performance in a given position and the
characteristics of the desired corresponding qualified candidates. With this essential
information, the organization embarks on estimating its present and future human resources
requirements and evaluating the actions that may be necessary in order to address those needs.
Only when these invaluable albeit complex functions have been performed, an organization
possesses sufficient enlightenment and awareness in order to engage in a “unified, consistent,
and coherent” (Ployhart, 2006, p. 876) recruitment and selection endeavor. Crucially,
organizations must be consistently cognizant that an effective and competent recruiting effort is
inherently composed of extremely complex, interdependent and interrelated sequential activities
each indispensable in the ultimate successful performance of the other components.

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