Hosam Ibrahim ERF presentation 11032019

On the Determinants of Riots,
Coups and Civil Wars:
The Effect of Youth Bulges
ERF Annual Conference
Kuwait, March 2019
Hosam Ibrahim

Outline
• Research Question
• Introduction & Motivation
• Literature review
• Conceptual Framework
• Definition of Political Violence
• Empirical Framework
• Results & Robustness Checks
• Discussion

Research Question
Are Youth Bulges a Common Determinant of Riots, Coups and Civil
Wars? If Yes, Do Youth Unemployment and Education Drive that Effect?

Introduction & Motivation
Grievances Political Violence
Youth
bulges
Economic
stagnation
Popular discontent
Leadership survival
Rebellion
Demand-Induced
Scarcities
Education Unemployment

• Collier & Hoeffler (2004) and Huntington (1996) → High youth bulges → most of such events
Introduction & Motivation
Source: Banks (2016), Powell & Thyne (2011), Armed Conflict (PRIO) and U.S. Census Bureau
Youth Bulge
Percentiles
Youth
Bulges
Youth
unemployment (%)
Second & tertiary
enrollment (per 1000)
Riots Coups Civil wars
Average per group % of violence
10 11-18% 18.5 3,289 19.7 0.7 0.7
20 18-21% 22.1 4,747 13.6 0.5 2.0
30 21-25% 19.8 4,054 19.6 1.3 0.6
40 25-29% 20.5 2,903 21.6 1.3 2.1
50 29-31% 16.6 7,530 20.0 1.6 2.5
60 31-33% 15.9 2,649 16.8 1.7 2.5
70 33-34% 14.0 1,368 20.6 1.7 4.1
80 34-35% 15.6 1,069 20.6 8.1 5.9
90 35-36% 15.7 838 16.2 6.2 6.7
100 36-42% 16.1 506 12.8 3.6 2.2

Literature Review
The Literature
can be
Categorized:
Determinants
of Civil War
Determinants
of Coups
Determinants
of Riots
(Political &
Social)
Linking Civil
Wars and
Coups
Linking all
Three
Leadership
Survival
Political
Instability &
Democratic
Transition
Human
Capital
Institutions
(Polity)
Political
Violence

Literature Review
Author(s) Main Finding
Huntington (1996)
The relationship between youth bulge and civil wars is
non-linear (quadratic) and the threshold is 20%
Collier (2000)
Youth bulges do affect conflict but do not have a non-
linear effect on civil wars.
Urdal (2004)
Youth bulges do have a non-linear effect on civil wars,
suggesting to use youth economic indicators
Barakat and Urdal (2008)
Positive relationship between youth bulges and civil
wars
Omer Yair and Dan Miodownik (2016)
Youth bulges have a negative effect on economic
opportunities for the youth.

Conceptual Framework
Theory of Collective Violence
Gurr
(1970)
State
legitimacy
State
functionality
Popular
discontent

Conceptual Framework
“If we cannot understand why we get civil war instead of
other forms of organized political violence, then we do not
understand civil war at all”
Sambanis (2004)
What is a civil war? How many dead? New states?

Definition of Political Violence
• Civil wars: are defined as conflicts on the national level
between the state and “organized” non-state players.
• Coups d’état: is a sudden political change at the governing
body’s chief executive level to depose the head of state.
• Riots: they are mainly violent clashes between different
parties (civil or otherwise) during demonstrations (organized
or random).
Coups
Riots
Civil
Wars
Multinomial
Logit Model
One very important aspect of the data that we
need to take care of is the reverse causality and
endogeneity problem we might have when dealing
with coups and civil wars. Coups can often be a
determinant of civil wars. On the other hand, ethnic
riots can also be a deterministic cause of civil wars
and coups. But again this is at the heart of the
paper’s motivation, in other words, these three
types are indeed a precise measure for political
instability.

Data
• The sample used contains 5,414 observations extending over the period between 1992-2016 and covers 159 countries.
• The three types of conflict onset in the model are separately identified using 3 different data sets.
Variables Source Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
Dependent variable
Riots Banks (2016) 0.200 0.400 0 1
Coups Powell & Thyne (2011) 0.030 0.171 0 1
Civil wars Armed Conflict (PRIO) 0.024 0.154 0 1
Endogeneity controls
Years since the last war Armed Conflict – PRIO 24.258 21.495 0 70
Riots past 5 years Banks (2016) 1.916 5.342 0 90
Coup attempt in the past 5 years Powell & Thyne (2011) 0.096 0.295 0 1
Opportunity cost of
conflict
Youth bulge U.S. Census Bureau 27.101 8.174 10.777 41.597
Uni. and sec. enrollment (1000) Banks (2016) 72,297 237,911 34 2,873,565
Youth unemployment WDI 17.303 12.248 0.306 65.700
GDP per capita growth WDI 2.204 6.462 -62.225 140.501
Rent to GDP WDI 0.085 0.121 0 0.826
Natural log of population WDI 16.095 1.542 12.707 21.060
Political institutions
Polity Marshall et al. (2010) 3.642 6.382 -10 10
Trans. / inter. regimes Marshall et al. (2010) 0.025 0.155 0 1

Model Specification
• The model used in this paper is a multinomial logit estimation of the log probability of onset of
the three types of political conflict (reference group = peace):
Where 𝛽 𝑀,𝑘 is the regression coefficient corresponding to the 𝑀 𝑡ℎ
independent variable and the 𝑘 𝑡ℎ
political conflict outcome (riots, coups or civil wars). 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑡 is a
variable measuring the ratio of the population between the ages of 15-24 to the population above 15. 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑡
2
is the square term of youth bulges measuring the non-
monotonic relationship between large young cohorts and conflict. 𝑋𝑖𝑡 is the set of covariates measuring the endogeneity controls, opportunity cost of conflict, and
political institutions. While 𝜂𝑖 and 𝜐𝑡 represent regional and half-decadal dummies, respectively.
𝑓 𝑘, 𝑖, 𝑡 = 𝛼𝑖,𝑘 + 𝛽1,𝑘 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽2,𝑘 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑡
2
+ 𝛽3,𝑘 𝑋𝑖𝑡 + 𝜂𝑖 + 𝜐𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 (1)
𝑙𝑛
𝑃(𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒=𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑐𝑡 𝑘)
𝑃(𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒=𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑐𝑒)
= 𝛼𝑖,𝑘 + 𝛽1,𝑘 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽2,𝑘 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑡
2
+ 𝛽3,𝑘 𝑋𝑖𝑡 + 𝜂𝑖 + 𝜐𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 (2)

Model Specification
• Ensuing Gurr’s theory, I pose that different forms of internal violence are indeed
complementary to- and analogous of- each other.
• It is therefore valuable to investigate the underlying common factors leading to
such outcomes.
• Building on Bodea et al. (2017) I use a multinomial logit specification to allow for:
• bridging the gap in the literature of simultaneously studying the three types of conflict;
• investigating whether coups, civil wars, and riots have the same structural determinants; and
• measuring the difference in the impact of one determinant across all three instability
outcomes, if existent.

Endogeneity and Fixed Effects
• Mitigating Potential Endogeneity, Controlling for the:
• The history of riots - the past 5 years, (Goemans, 2008; Smith, 2004),
• Number of peace years and coups attempts (Goldstone et al., 2010), and
• Lagging polity and rents.
• Time and Regional Biases:
• Regional and decadal dummies,
• Robust standard errors

Raw Coefficients
Riots Coup attempts Civil wars
Years since the last war -0.00370 -0.0400*** 0.00324
(0.00255) (0.00967) (0.00647)
Number of riots in the past 5 years 0.0917*** 0.0593*** 0.0624***
(0.0150) (0.0195) (0.0169)
Coup attempt in the past 5 years -0.313* 1.227*** 0.109
(0.172) (0.214) (0.315)
GDP per capita growth (annual %) -0.0444*** -0.0627*** -0.0469***
(0.0112) (0.0132) (0.0174)
Lagged rents to GDP -1.741* -2.091 5.518**
(1.049) (2.039) (2.268)
Lagged rents to GDP square 2.159 0.527 -8.401**
(1.971) (4.076) (4.119)
Natural log of population 0.427*** 0.108 0.234***
(0.0362) (0.0745) (0.0687)
Lagged Polity2 0.00661 -0.00530 0.00200
(0.00881) (0.0188) (0.0216)
Lagged Polity2 square -0.00702*** -0.0135*** -0.0125***
(0.00171) (0.00361) (0.00363)
Transitional and interregnum regimes 1.125*** 0.508 1.242***
(0.271) (0.446) (0.414)
Constant -7.778*** -4.520*** -7.849***
(0.652) (1.444) (1.298)
5-year dummies Yes
Regional dummies Yes
N 5414
Marginal Effects
Riots Coup attempts Civil wars
Years since the last war -0.000229 -0.000923*** 0.000121
(0.000266) (0.000234) (0.000133)
Number of riots in the past 5 years 0.00905*** 0.000934** 0.000839***
(0.00141) (0.000416) (0.000298)
Coup attempt in the past 5 years -0.0383** 0.0299*** 0.00237
(0.0176) (0.00522) (0.00634)
GDP per capita growth (annual %) -0.00417*** -0.00123*** -0.000716**
(0.00113) (0.000301) (0.000345)
Lagged rents to GDP -0.158* -0.0439 0.0823***
(0.0848) (0.0327) (0.0289)
Natural log of population 0.0431*** 0.000484 0.00292**
(0.00376) (0.00169) (0.00137)
Lagged polity2 -0.00232*** 0.000857** 0.0000994
(0.000863) (0.000398) (0.000296)
Transitional and interregnum regimes 0.110*** 0.00586 0.0203**
(0.0274) (0.0100) (0.00826)
5-year dummies Yes
Regional dummies Yes
N 5414
Robust standard errors in parentheses
+ p < 0.11, * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
+ p < 0.11, * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Baseline Model

0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
ChangeinLikelihoodofViolence
Youth Bulge
Coup attempts Civil wars
Youth bulge Youth bulge square
Riots Coup attempts Civil wars Riots Coup attempts Civil wars
Youth bulge (15-24), % of pop. above 15 0.00147 -0.00323 0.0773*** -0.0275 0.591*** 0.402***
(0.0102) (0.0265) (0.0251) (0.0552) (0.228) (0.148)
Youth bulge square 0.000536 -0.00973*** -0.00557**
(0.000994) (0.00354) (0.00240)
5-year dummies Yes Yes
Regional dummies Yes Yes
N 5414 5414
+ p < 0.11, * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Figure 1 Non-Monotonic Effect of Youth Bulges
Youth Bulges

Highest 20% Youth Unemployment Lowest 20% Youth Unemployment Full sample
Riots Coup attempts Civil wars Riots Coup attempts Civil wars Riots Coup attempts Civil wars
Youth bulge (15-24), % of pop. above 15 0.163*** 0.246** 0.225* -0.0858* -0.197** -0.238*** 0.0370*** -0.000794 0.101***
(0.0583) (0.125) (0.128) (0.0450) (0.0805) (0.0905) (0.0119) (0.0288) (0.0263)
University and secondary enrollment 0.000131 -0.00177 0.000377 -0.000428 -0.000532+ -0.000925*** 0.0000480* -0.000233 0.000106*
(0.000328) (0.00188) (0.000626) (0.000416) (0.000324) (0.000269) (0.0000285) (0.000334) (0.0000606)
Youth bulge X Uni. & sec. enrollment 0.000000820 0.0000589 -0.00000602 0.0000189 0.0000273** 0.0000329** -0.00000240** 0.00000520 -0.00000467*
(0.0000114) (0.0000578) (0.0000194) (0.0000142) (0.0000130) (0.0000151) (0.00000110) (0.0000106) (0.00000251)
5-year dummies Yes Yes Yes
Regional dummies Yes Yes Yes
N 488 515 4535
+ p < 0.11, * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Figure 2 Marginal Effects of Youth Bulges
Youth Bulges
0
10
20
30
40
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
%ChangeinProbability
Youth Bulges
Riots
Highest 20% Youth Unemployment
Lowest 20% Youth Unemployment
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Youth Bulges
Coup attempts
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Youth Bulges
Civil Wars

Wald Chi-square P>chi2
Peace & Riots 610.05 0.000
Peace & Coup attempts 216.406 0.000
Peace & Civil wars 128.735 0.000
Riots & Coup attempts 189.992 0.000
Riots & Civil wars 74.46 0.000
Coup attempts & Civil wars 67.195 0.000
Wald Test of Combined Outcomes
Wald Chi-square P>chi2
Youth bulge 14.375 0.002
Youth bulge square 13.296 0.004
Years since the last war 19.482 0.000
Number of riots in the past 5 years 38.445 0.000
Coup attempt in the past 5 years 39.456 0.000
GDP per capita growth (annual %) 30.196 0.000
Lagged rents to GDP 9.852 0.020
Lagged rents to GDP square 5.341 0.148
Natural log of population 143.268 0.000
Lagged Polity2 1.123 0.772
Lagged Polity2 square 28.496 0.000
Transitional and interregnum regimes 23.069 0.000
Half-decadal dummy 1 24.829 0.000
Regional dummy 1 8.908 0.031
Wald Test for Independent Variables
Wald Test

Youth bulge (15-24), % of tot. pop. 0.00172 -0.0506 0.126** -0.144 2.375** 1.129
(0.0219) (0.0580) (0.0548) (0.161) (0.931) (0.780)
Youth bulge square 0.00413 -0.0644*** -0.0268
(0.00450) (0.0244) (0.0211)
N 5414 5414
Youth bulge (15-24), % of tot. pop. 0.269** 1.601*** 0.382 -0.198** -0.285 -0.769** 0.0836*** -0.0332 0.160***
(0.107) (0.393) (0.286) (0.0955) (0.203) (0.301) (0.0276) (0.0676) (0.0600)
University and secondary enrollment 0.0000925 0.00334 0.000833+ -0.000823 -0.000898 -0.00229*** 0.0000199 -0.000105 0.000154
(0.000483) (0.00313) (0.000516) (0.000667) (0.000562) (0.000881) (0.0000492) (0.000303) (0.000119)
Youth bulge X Uni. and sec. enrollment -0.000000660 -0.000169 -0.0000403 0.0000495 0.0000621** 0.000124** -0.00000190 0.00000176 -0.00000955
(0.0000255) (0.000138) (0.0000257) (0.0000341) (0.0000313) (0.0000483) (0.00000260) (0.0000149) (0.00000668)
Decadal dummies Yes Yes Yes
N 488 515 4535
+ p < 0.11, * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
+ p < 0.11, * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Youth Bulges % of Total Population

Youth bulge (15-24), % of pop. above 15 0.0943+ 0.0453 0.155 -0.0873** -0.198** -0.196** 0.0374*** -0.00656 0.0802***
(0.0586) (0.167) (0.131) (0.0439) (0.0813) (0.1000) (0.0126) (0.0286) (0.0263)
University and secondary enrollment 0.000101 -0.00258** 0.000329 -0.000419 -0.000211 -0.000718** 0.0000456 -0.000171 0.0000820
(0.000338) (0.00126) (0.000547) (0.000418) (0.000383) (0.000316) (0.0000288) (0.000311) (0.0000581)
Youth bulge X University and secondary enrollment 0.000000779 0.0000849** -0.00000180 0.0000188 0.0000173 0.0000282* -0.00000237** 0.00000347 -0.00000382
(0.0000120) (0.0000410) (0.0000158) (0.0000143) (0.0000145) (0.0000144) (0.00000111) (0.00000991) (0.00000243)
Lagged Liberal Democracy Index -1.480 -3.269 -0.930 0.128 -4.742** -0.699 -0.226 -1.219* -0.810
(1.436) (4.610) (2.302) (1.152) (2.314) (2.787) (0.274) (0.656) (0.678)
Transitional and interregnum regimes -0.508 -16.26*** 1.534 0.618 0.625 -0.313 1.217*** 0.765* 1.333***
(0.656) (1.700) (1.402) (0.666) (0.774) (0.974) (0.270) (0.424) (0.446)
Regional dummies Yes Yes Yes
N 500 516 4551
+ p < 0.11, * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
+ p < 0.11, * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
Liberal Democracy Index
Youth bulge (15-24), % of pop. above 15 -0.000405 -0.0110 0.0533** -0.0760 0.511** 0.270*
(0.0104) (0.0253) (0.0250) (0.0562) (0.220) (0.150)
Youth bulge square 0.00137 -0.00854** -0.00370
(0.00100) (0.00344) (0.00242)
Lagged Liberal Democracy Index 2.326*** 4.969* 4.559** 2.508*** 5.171* 4.281**
(0.761) (2.537) (1.987) (0.768) (2.742) (2.024)
Lagged Liberal Democracy square -3.337*** -10.39** -7.503*** -3.583*** -10.58** -6.905***
(0.896) (4.647) (2.512) (0.908) (5.156) (2.615)
Transitional and interregnum regimes 1.312*** 0.774* 1.505*** 1.325*** 0.745* 1.507***
(0.256) (0.405) (0.388) (0.256) (0.413) (0.388)
N 5446 5446

Discussion
• This paper’s contribution is twofold:
• First, large young cohorts and political violence,
• Second, if such relationship exists, what are the underlying factors
and mechanisms under which youth bulges influence riots, coups
and civil wars?
• To address these two questions (availability and cost of
recruiting participants):
• heterogeneity analysis of youth bulges under different economic
circumstances is presented to answer if youth bulges affect conflict,
and if yes, how and why?

Discussion
• The effect of youth bulges on political violence is driven by two economic factors: Youth Unemployment
and Education.
• The impact of youth bulges facing fierce competition in the labor market calls for inclusive growth
policies. Policies aimed at encouraging entrepreneurship and ease of doing business, not only provide an
alternative to traditional job markets, but also ease the pressure on the government to provide public
sector jobs for the youth bulge.
• Additionally, such policies are known to transform informal employment to the formal sector, boosting
the productivity of such businesses in the process. Productivity and high returns to non-rebellion
activities are key to increasing the opportunity cost of joining a rebellion. Government policies must aim
to enshrine two rather essential values in their youth. One is a sense of nationalization and ownership in
the state’s institutions; and two, is the high returns of non-rebellion labor.
• Other policies aimed at including young people in the political process can also drastically reduce the
likelihood of political violence. However, this would require a political dimension, and possibly and
ethnic one too, to the heterogeneity analysis done in this paper to better inform policy makers.

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