The document discusses challenges in bringing new products and technologies to market based on examples of Webvan, Segway, and TiVo. It then covers innovation and diffusion models, including Rogers' technology adoption life cycle model and the Bass diffusion model. Key challenges discussed are crossing the chasm between early adopters and the mainstream market, and managing hype cycles of new technologies.

4. Example 2 • In spite of gaining the support of Apple’s Steve Jobs, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, and many highprofile investors, Segway sold a mere 6,000 scooters in the 18 months after its launch—a far cry from the 50,000 to 100,000 units projected.

5. Example 3 • Although TiVo’s digital video recorder (DVR) has garnered rave reviews since the late 1990s from both industry experts and product adopters, the company had amassed $600 million in operating losses by 2005 because demand trailed expectations.

7. The “classic” Product life cycle

8. The 9 to 1 effect

9. Product and behaviour Changes Ref: J.T.Gourville

10. New product forecasting models Repositioning Pre test Market New Coke Me Too Products Conjoint Analysis Burn Breakthroughs ¿? Red Bull Line Extensions Pre-test Coke Light New to company New to world Lo high high Lo

14. Innovation & Diffusion models Not all technologies have the same pattern of diffusion Ex: TV vs Telephone

18. The Bass Model

23. Why only few products reach Mainstream?

32. But… Why is so difficult to get succes…..

34. The Chasm Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards Source: Moore (1995), Crossing the Chasm

35. The Chasm Skeptics Supporters Specialist Generalist Innovators Visionaries Pragmatist Conservative

36. The Chasm Skeptics Supporters Specialist Generalist Innovators Visionaries Pragmatist Conservative

37. The Chasm De facto standard Elegant Architecture Value Infrastructure & Support Easiest to use Reference base very important Unique functionality Market Centric Product Centric Pragmatist Visionaries

38. TALC on video products

45. Results: Fours years later, it had a 10% share of the total dog food market. The total super premium segment of the market was about 15% -- about 10% coming from dog food brands and about 5% coming from fresh foods. In addition, Pedigree's premium brand retained its market share.

51. Managing the Hype cycle

52. Managing the Hype cycle A hype cycle in Gartner's interpretation comprises 5 steps: " Technology Trigger " — The first phase of a hype cycle is the "technology trigger“ or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest. " Peak of Inflated Expectations " — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. " Trough of Disillusionment " — Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology. " Slope of Enlightenment " — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology. " Plateau of Productivity " — A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

53. Managing the Hype cycle