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An After-Action Review
Of
The Indian Nuclear Test
During May 11-13, 1998
And
Actions Taken
By
The World
By
Chad M. Pillai
On May 17, 1998, I landed in India for a family trip. A few days before arriving, India
had caused an international crisis for testing nuclear weapons. As a result, the world was
scrambling to curb further nuclear tests and trying to prevent Pakistan from following suite. As a
person interested in the intelligence field, I took the opportunity to gather as much information as
I could on the issue. I was able to gather information by conducting interviews, reading various
local and national papers, and watching CNN and the BBC. After my trip, I had the opportunity
to work for the US State Department as an intern where I took the opportunity to do more
research by working with the bureaus that focus on that region of the world. The following
report explains the crisis as of May 1998, some background information as to the development of
the crisis, some possible predictions for the future, and a section with some personal reactions
and recommendations on the crisis.
Background Information:
“The most savage religious war in history was neither the Christian Crusades against
Islam nor the Thirty Years’ War that pitted Catholics against the Protestants. It was the war of
Hindu against Moslem in the Twentieth Century.”1
Since their independence in 1947, India and
Pakistan have fought three wars. These conflicts occurred in 1947, 1965, and 1971. Most of the
conflicts ended in stalemate between the two nations. Two of those wars were fought over
Kashmir, a beautiful province in the North-Western section of the India that is the border
between India and Pakistan.
In 1962, India fought a border war with China. India was defeated and China to this day
still occupies Indian Territory. In 1986, these nations had a smaller border clash in which India
was able to occupy Chinese territory in retaliation for territory lost in 1962. Since then the two
nations have been trying to establish better relations.2
Back in the 1950's India was the first country in Asia to build a nuclear reactor for
electrical power generation. India received a great deal of help from the United States. There
were rumors that the United States wanted to make India a nuclear power state to counter
Communist China before China became a nuclear power. Once China tested a nuclear device in
1964, the US felt that too many nations were developing nuclear weapons and canceled its plans
to make India a nuclear weapons state. The US continued to supply technical and financial help
to India until the 1970s.3
In 1974, India tested a nuclear device which makes this year’s test not the first. After the
test, the US stopped aiding India; however, India continued to receive its technical help from the
former Soviet Union. Even though India tested a nuclear device, it did not weaponize it. Around
the same time, it is believed that Pakistan began their clandestine nuclear program to catch up
with India.
In 1990, India and Pakistan almost went to war again, but the war was averted, and the
US noticed that both sides were getting ready to manufacture nuclear weapons for possible
deployment. The US contacted both parties requesting that they halt their nuclear programs.
Pakistan was put under sanctions and lost their order of F-16 fighter jets. India promised not to
continue with its nuclear program. “The US was paying close attention for a while and then
stopped; however, the potential for possible nuclear tests has been known for many years.
Scrutiny was devoted to the issue in late 1995 and the subject was addressed once again
following recent Pakistani missile tests. It is apparent that the Indians went to some length to
conceal their activities and intentions.”4
They did this by setting up the area ahead of time,
knowing when US satellites would be orbiting above them, and working at night. However, the
US intelligence community missed the test even after India’s intentions were made public by the
new political party in power. All this led up to the present situation which began on May 11,
1998.
Present Situation:
On May 11, 1998, the world awoke to a new nuclear power. India had simultaneously
tested three nuclear devices in the desert sands of Pockran. The three devices tested were a
fission device with a yield of 12 Kilotons, a thermonuclear device with a yield of 43 Kilotons,
and a Sub-Kiloton device.5
On May 13, 1998, the government conducted two more tests. These
two tests were of Sub-Kiloton type in the range of 0.2 and 0.6 Kilotons.6
After the tests, the
government publicly admitted the tests and received a lot of support from the population. Many
Indians felt that the government was finally standing up for the country’s rights. There were
many public demonstrations of support in New Delhi in front of the Prime Minister’s home.
Many people felt that their country would gain respect from the rest of the world for the tests, but
that was not to be the case.
These tests set off an outcry of protest. Several nations including the United States
imposed immediate economic sanctions on India and called for India to halt further nuclear tests
and missile launches. The immediate fear was that Pakistan, a long-time rival of India would
conduct its own nuclear test and would start a nuclear arms race in South Asia. Many nations and
international organizations held high priority meetings to discuss the growing crisis in South
Asia.
As stated in a United States State Department briefing, “The key international meetings,
of course, were the gathering of the (P-5) Permanent Five Members (only five declared nuclear
states) of the National Security Council of the United Nations in Geneva on June 4, the Security
Council resolution on June 6, and the meeting in London on June 12 of the G-8 (the eight
economically developed nations of the world), as well as a number of states that have themselves
forsworn the acquisition of nuclear weapons. These various gatherings have served to
demonstrate that the international community has closed ranks behind many steps that is felt are
very important for India and Pakistan to take if they are going to move back from the brink that
they have approached. Summarizing briefly what is being asked of India: Stop all further tests,
adhere to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) immediately and unconditionally, refrain
from the manufacture of warheads and bombs or attaching those to ballistic missiles, refrain from
testing or deployment of missiles that would be capable of delivering nuclear warheads, halt the
production of fissile material and participate constructively in negotiations on fissile material
cutoff in Geneva, confirm policies not to export equipment, material or technology relevant to
missiles or weapons of mass destruction and enter into an ironclad commitments in that regard,
refrain from threatening military movements or violations across the borders and particularly the
line of control or any provocative acts or statements, and reestablish direct communications
between India and Pakistan with a view to addressing the basic cause of the tensions between
those countries, including the issue of Kashmir.7
During the meetings in Geneva, the ministers
representing the nations concerned pledged that they will actively encourage India and Pakistan
to find mutually acceptable solutions, through direct dialogue, that address the root cause of the
tension, including Kashmir, and try to build confidence rather than seek confrontation. In that
connection, the ministers urged both parties to avoid threatening military movements, cross-
border violations, or other provocative acts. They will encourage India and Pakistan to adopt
practical measures to prevent an arms race.8
Around May 28-31, 1998, Pakistan conducted six nuclear tests in retaliation for the
nuclear tests conducted by India. Most of the tests were of very low yield. Even though Pakistan
has claimed it tested a thermonuclear device, the evidence shows otherwise. It is believed that
Pakistan tested a fission device with a booster to make it more powerful, but not in the range of a
thermonuclear device. Following these tests, other world organizations, such as the Organization
of American States (OAS) met to discuss the issues concerning the recent nuclear tests.
On June 3, the OAS met to discuss the nuclear tests by India by Pakistan. During the
meeting, the OAS made several resolutions involving towards India and Pakistan.
1. To condemn the nuclear test explosions conducted by the governments of India and
Pakistan and firmly urges them to refrain from further nuclear testing, missile deployment and
weaponization, or other steps which will further escalate tensions in the region, and appeals to
the Governments of India and Pakistan to peacefully resolve their differences; to accede to the
Treaty of Non-Proliferation (NPT); to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty without delay
and without conditions; and to participate, in a positive spirit, in the proposed negotiations with
other states for a fissile material cut-off treaty.
2. That the nuclear tests conducted by the governments of India and Pakistan jeopardize
the treaty on Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons, the maintenance of which is indispensable
for international peace and security, and therefore, urges all states, those of South Asia to
exercise maximum restraint and refrain from further nuclear testing.
3. To place at the disposal of India and Pakistan the experience regarding agreements to
guarantee the non-proliferation and banning of nuclear weapons and the mechanisms for
implementing them, particularly the Treaty of Tlatelolco of 1967 and the Brazil-Argentine
Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials.
4. To reaffirm the commitment of all member states to work towards universal adherence
to the Treaty of Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as well as to the Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty and its early entry into force, considering these essential elements to avoid the
proliferation of nuclear weapons and as a means of promoting nuclear disarmament.9
On the same day, President Clinton made statements in the rose garden concerning the
nuclear tests conducted by India and Pakistan. The first statement made was “The nuclear tests
by India and Pakistan stand in stark contrast to the progress the world has made over the past
several years in reducing stockpiles and containing the spread of nuclear weapons. It is also
contrary to the ideals of nonviolent democratic freedom and independence at the heart of
Gandhi’s struggle to end colonialism on the Indian subcontinent.” Next, he said “India and
Pakistan are great nations with boundless potential, but developing weapons of mass destruction
is self-defeating, wasteful, and dangerous. It will make their people poorer and less secure. The
international community must now come together to move them through a diverse course and to
avoid a dangerous arms race in Asia.” At the same conference, Secretary Madeleine Albright
stated “Unlike the United States and the former Soviet Union during the Cold War, India and
Pakistan do not have the benefit of a vast ocean between them. They are next door neighbors
with a past of conflict and a present of bitter mistrust. Under the circumstances, the citizens of
each nation should understand what is obvious to the world--that both Indians and Pakistanis are
far less secure today than they were three weeks ago.”10
In the immediate aftermath of the tests by India and Pakistan, the US became quite
concerned about the tense atmosphere in the region, and by provocative statements and actions
by officials of both countries that appeared to be intended solely to stir the pot. In that kind of
environment, there is an increased capacity for one-upmanship or miscalculation, with potentially
devastating consequences. Lately, a cooling been noticed recently in the rhetoric from both
Islamabad and New Delhi, and there have been calls from both capitals to resume direct
dialogue. Both have declared a moratorium on further nuclear testing and have taken a more
cautious line on future developments regarding their nuclear and missile programs. India has
made positive statements about a willingness to participate in negotiations toward a fissile
material cut-off treaty; it is hoped Pakistan will follow suite.
The United States does not wish to isolate either country, but rather encourage both to
take steps to demonstrate a firm commitment to global non-proliferation norms and to improve
their relationship with one another. However, the administration must ensure the implementation
of the Glen Amendment which is meant to punish the Government of India and Pakistan, but not
the people of either country or the interests of US businesses.11
The following is a break down of
the initiatives the United States has taken towards India and Pakistan.
The United States imposed sanctions on India and Pakistan because of their nuclear test in May.
By imposing these sanctions, it seeks:
 To send a strong message to would-be nuclear testers;
 To have maximum influence on Indian and Pakistani behavior;
 To target the governments, rather than the people; and,
 To minimize the damage to US interest.
The goals are that India and Pakistan:
 Halt further nuclear tests;
 Sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) immediately and without
conditions;
 Not deploy or test missiles or nuclear weapons;
 Cut off fissile material production for nuclear weapons;
 Cooperate in Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) negotiations in Geneva;
 Maintain and formalize restraints on sharing sensitive goods and technologies
with other countries; and,
 Reduce bilateral tensions, including Kashmir.
Accordingly, the United States:
 Terminated or suspended foreign assistance under the Foreign Assistance
Act, with exceptions provided by law (e.g., humanitarian assistance, food,
or other agricultural commodities).
--$21 million in economic development assistance and housing guarantee authority for
India terminated.
--$6 million Greenhouse Gas program in India suspended.
--Trade Development Agency will not consider new projects.
--Most assistance of Pakistan had already been prohibited.
 Terminated foreign military sales under the Arms Export Control Act, and
revoked licenses for the commercial sale of any item on the US munitions
list.
--Suspended delivery of previously approved defense articles and services to India.
 Halted any new commitments of USG credits and credit guarantees by
USG entities (EXIM, OPIC,CCC).
--The administration will support legislation to permit CCC credits for food and
agricultural commodities.
--OPIC had only recently reopened in Pakistan. However, India was one of OPIC’s top
five countries receiving an average of $300 million annually in OPIC support.
--EXIM had only recently reopened in Pakistan with one expression of interest pending
for $1.1 million; $500 million in pending financing in India will not go forward.
 Gained G-8 support to postpone consideration of non-basic human need
(BHN) loans for India and Pakistan by the International Financial
Institutions (IFI) to bolster the effect of the Glen Amendment requirement
that the US oppose non-BHN IFI loans.
--$1.17 billion in IFI lending postponed for India.
--Although no IFI loans for Pakistan have been presented for board consideration, $25
million in IMF assistance has been postponed for failure to meet economic benchmarks.
 Will issue Executive Orders to prohibit US banks from extending loans or
credits to the Governments of India and Pakistan.
 Will deny export of all dual-use exports to entities involved in nuclear or
missile programs.
--Will toughen existing controls for government military entities.
--Will continue denial of nuclear exports licensed by NRC or authorized by DOE; and
--Will continue to favorably consider, on a case-by-case basis, other transactions which
do not support nuclear, missile, or inappropriate military activities.12
In response to Indian nuclear tests, the government in India was claiming a victory for the
people. The people were supporting the tests. Around 87 percent of the population supported the
tests, 86 percent feel that the India should weaponize its nuclear devices, 64 percent did not
believe the tests were a political move, 92 percent they feel more proud to be Indian, 88 percent
feel that India will emerge stronger from the tests, 62 percent do not feel that the sanctions will
hurt the economy, 49 percent feel that economic relations with the United States will worsen, and
63 percent feel that India will not become unpopular in the international community.13
The
percentages demonstrate how the Indian people feel about the tests. Actually, many Indians took
pride in the fact that their government poisoned relations with the United States and the rest of
the world. 14
India claims that there were several security reasons for it testing a nuclear device. The
biggest reason was the fear of China. India believes that China has been aiding Pakistan in
developing its nuclear weapons program. This was obvious to them by China’s shipment of
special electromagnetic devices used for Nuclear weapons research. Additionally, China
supplied them with other forms of technology and financial aid for their weapons program.
Another thing that India fears from China is the 70-nuclear tipped CSS-2 missiles believed to be
in Tibet and aimed at India.xv
India wanted to show China that it is not a pushover and that it
will stand up for its rights. At the same time, India does not want to enter an arms race with
China and would like to establish friendly economic ties. Many people do not consider Pakistan
a major military threat to India. They see Pakistan as an annoyance to the people, but not
something that will pose a threat to its sovereignty. It is evident from my experience in India that
the educated members of that society understand what is going on and fear China more than
anything. Those who are not educated and hear news from others fear Pakistan the most.
India has been fighting for nuclear non-proliferation for a long time. The earliest leaders
of India rejected the use of nuclear weapons. They were major players during the Cold War for
nuclear disarmament. The latest tests seem to be some sort of irony to the world that a nation
that has fought so long for nuclear disarmament goes nuclear. India claims that by going nuclear
it is in a better position to argue for nuclear disarmament with the other nuclear states. Many
Indians also understand that they cannot afford to develop an expensive nuclear triad defense like
the US and Russia did. The cost would be enormous for India to undertake and it is understood
that it would also be impossible for Pakistan to create a nuclear triad.
The actions of India and Pakistan have Israel very worry. Israel, an undeclared nuclear
power believed to have around 100-200 nuclear weapons, is afraid that the latest round of test
will encourage Iran, Libya, and Iraq to continue with their nuclear programs. Being long time
enemies, this poses a great deal of concern to Israel and the rest of the world. Many feel that
Pakistan will assist Iran with its nuclear program. India currently does not plan on exporting its
technology and information to any other country of the world.
The Future:
The future of the conflict will depend on whether India, Pakistan, and China are able to
settle their differences peacefully. The world will place a sharper eye on that region of the world
to ensure that these countries do not make the same mistake that the US and Russia did during
the Cold War. Presently, these countries do not have the resources to develop large arsenals of
nuclear weapons. Also, their economies could not sustain a major expensive arms race. Most of
the cost will not come from developing nuclear weapons, but from developing the delivery
systems needed to make the nuclear devices into a viable weapon system. Hopefully, these
nations will wake up and see the mistake they are making. India and Pakistan should be more
worried about providing enough food to their people, developing their infrastructure, population
control, and providing electrical power to their people. What India needs now is more nuclear
power plants to power their villages rather than nuclear weapons. Their priorities are backward
currently.
The US and other nations hope that India and Pakistan will sign the CTBT and NPT.
India is already close to signing the CTBT with the conditions that some parts of the treaty be
changed and that more of a promise of nuclear disarmament be made. Hopefully, Pakistan will
follow suite with India and the other nations of the world who pledge to fight the evils of nuclear
weapons.
Reactions and Recommendations:
I have a few reactions from my travel to India and my work in Washington, D.C. The
first is that I do not believe that our own country is doing enough to show the world that we are
trying to reduce our nuclear stockpile. We are reducing our own nuclear stockpile by getting rid
of the older and less accurate weapons and replacing them with newer and more accurate weapon
systems. The United States has joined with Russia to reduce nuclear stockpiles from over
20,000 warheads apiece to about 3,000 warheads. Three thousand warheads apiece is still
enough to destroy every living creature on this planet several times over. Countries like France,
England, and China have several hundred warheads and that is still too many. We must be
willing to slash our nuclear stockpile even more to demonstrate to the world that we are serious
as a nation. Other nations are not going to listen to us if we do not take the steps to disarm
ourselves first.
Another interesting irony that I have noticed concerns in the region of South Asia. India
is the only real Democracy. China is Communist and Pakistan is ruled by the Military and the
elite. Over the years, the US has given more support to Pakistan and China than India. Now, if
the US claims that it fights to preserve Democracy, why has it not supported India over the years?
I believe it is time for the US to change its foreign policy and start doing the right thing. It is our
responsibility to help India out. It is the largest Democracy in the world and with a growing
population that will surpass China; it will be a very large economic market for the US. India has
a larger middle class than China which means that Indians will be able to buy more of our
products than the Chinese.
In terms of strategic power plays, India could be very useful to the United States. It is
without question that China has become a major military power in Asia and the world. By
helping India, the US could play India and China against one another in major Asian crisis. With
roughly equal populations and with India having more technology, the Indians could counter
Chinese aggression. This would help the US gain more influence in the region. I am not
recommending though that the US make China an enemy. Letting China know that there is a
major regional power next door will help them negotiate favorable deals for the US.
I truly hope that the situation in South Asia becomes stable and that there will be no arms
race. The world has come close to nuclear war several times and the threat remains with nuclear
weapons around and continual proliferation. The greatest risk though is that a nuclear device
may be stolen by a terrorist group which will not think twice about the consequences of their
actions. It is important that the world work towards total nuclear disarmament and that peace
may reign on earth.
Interviews:
The following are the result of several interviews that I conducted while in India. They
give a good idea of the mind set of the Indian people.
June 7, 1998.
PKS Namboodiri, 58 yrs, Former researcher at the Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis. A
retired official of the Indian Cabinet Secretariate. Holds a Masters in Political Science from Delhi
University.
Q. What was your reaction to the nuclear tests conducted by India on May 11 and May 13?
A. I felt proud of the nuclear tests for the reason that we were able to withstand international
pressure and demonstrated our determination to pursue the nuclear option in the best interest of
the Nation’s defense and security.
Q. Do you feel these tests will bring stability to the region of South Asia?
A. National security ensures certain stability in the country and allows for progress in other areas.
Security is a sort of fencing or an insurance policy for the nation. Nuclear security is an important
aspect of total national security in the present nuclear environment in which India is placed in
that we have a major nuclear adversary, China, to our north and until now a clandestine covert
nuclear state of Pakistan. International nuclear regimes represented by the five weapons states
have been exerting excessive pressure on India to join CTBT and comply with other so called
NPT measures. Under these circumstances, India had no other choice but to test a nuclear device.
Q. Do you believe these tests will bring stability and unity to the people of India?
A. These tests will enhance unity within India. Different political parties will try to take
advantage or deprive the advantage to others and in the process some temporary instability will
be created, but overall public opinion polls show a great deal of public support throughout the
country and this will enhance unity among the Indian people.
Q. How did you feel about the reactions of Pakistan and the US?
A. Pakistan’s reaction was quite natural in that India being the one and only enemy, their
behavior was quite predictable. The US reaction was also partly due to frustration caused by the
nuclear non-proliferation and the US being upset partly due to its in inability to develop a viable
policy towards India, Pakistan, and China.
Q. Will there be an arms race in South Asia between India, Pakistan, and possibly China?
A. Not certainly an arms race by the western model between the Soviet Union and the US. The
primary concern of the three nuclear states in Asia is to have nuclear deterrence against one
another. They seem to believe in a minimum deterrent philosophy. Just like China is not wanting
and cannot in the foreseeable future catch up with the US or Russia in its nuclear arsenal or
delivering systems, India may not want to catch up with China and Pakistan, and they may not
want to catch up with India. What all three in this triangular deterrent in Asia need is an explicit
capability to deter the adversary from threatening or nuclear blackmailing. Now that India and
Pakistan have an explicit nuclear capability, this deterrence is going to satisfy the consciousness
of these states of each other and this will likely keep the arsenals at a minimum level rather than
leading to a competitive arms races.
Q. Do you believe the Chinese-Pakistani connection will continue?
A. Pakistan-Chinese nuclear collaboration will continue especially since the Chinese strategy of
containing India within the subcontinent has become more pronounce in the post Pockrain II
phase. More important, there seems to be some sort of strategic understanding between
Washington and Beijing. On this score, the Chinese are not particularly bothered about US
displeasure for violations of NPT rules which prohibit a nuclear weapon country passing nuclear
material and technology to other nations.
Q. Do you feel these tests will enhance or weaken the argument for nuclear disarmament?
A. Yes, it will enhance nuclear disarmament. India was the first country in Asia to have a nuclear
reactor in 1954 and developed the capability to develop nuclear weapons early on. India’s
commitment to nuclear disarmament prevented it from going nuclear even after the Chinese went
nuclear in 1964 and defeated India in a border war two years before. India was one of the earliest
supporters for nuclear disarmament. Even after 1974 when India openly demonstrated its nuclear
capability, it resisted its nuclear program from weaponizing hoping that the international
community would move towards nuclear disarmament. Then the NPT, CTBT, and FMCT sought
to legitimize the declared nuclear weapons nations and allowed them to keep their nuclear
weapons. The CTBT was being forced upon India by the end of 1998 regardless of its objections
to it, and India was threatened with sanctions if it did not sign it. Under these circumstances,
India had no choice but to test a nuclear device and move forward with a weaponization program
as leverage for demanding global disarmament. Even at this stage, what India is seeking is a
global convention on nuclear disarmament under a non-discriminating UN regime.
Q. Do you feel that it is in the best interest of the US and other nations to make India a more
powerful nation to counter the growing power of China in the region?
A. That is for the Americans to decide. The Americans and the Chinese have an understanding
and they have divided the world. China will take care of Asia and the Northern Pacific. The US
will take care of Europe and the South Pacific. Regarding the domino effect that the US talked
about in the 1960's, The US State Department wanted to make India a nuclear weapons nation to
counter communist China’s growing power; however, after China exploded a nuclear device in
1964, the US decided that no other nation in the world should have nuclear weapons and the
non-proliferation movement began in 1967.
June 8, 1998.
Dr. R.R. Subramanian. Senior Research Associate for the Institute for Defense Studies and
Analysis. Holds a Ph.D. in Physics. Attended Brandius, Standford, Berkley, Harvard, Delhi, and
Calcutta Universities.
Q. What was your reaction to the nuclear tests conducted by India.
A. India had already exploded a nuclear device in 1974. At that time there was no domestic or
political impact. The tests conducted this time were more for show rather than substance. It was
meant to show the world that India had the capability and that they should respect India for it.
Q. What are the reasons that India tested the devices and are they specifically intended towards
any particular nation?
A. China is the number one nuclear threat in the region. Pakistan is not a threat to India. India has
no capability to counter China’s nuclear weapons. China has targeted India by placing IRBM
missiles in Tibet with nuclear warheads.
Q. How is India going to counter China?
A. India must develop weapon systems like the Agni missile and work for an assured second-
strike capability with 45 to 55 IRBM missiles to strike Chinese cities. Today, Indian scientists
have enough data to develop weapons by using super computers. Indians have supercomputers
like the Americans to test parallel processes. India must test fire the Agni II missile with a range
of 5000 km. In 1974, the Pockran I test was a lot of smoke no fire, now India must fashion
warheads with yields that can be carried on ballistic missiles. It is important for India to develop
a nuclear deterrent against China using the French model (The bee-sting counter attack). India is
also developing ICBMs that could possibly reach the US (SUYA missile). The US Pentagon has
tested the possibility of India having nuclear weapons in Asia to counter China or Russia in the
fashion that the United Kingdom and France developed nuclear weapons to counter the Soviet
Union.
Q. So Pakistan is not a strategic threat to India?
A. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are for tactical purposes; battlefield use only. They do not have
the weapons to attack Indian cities to the extent that India can destroy Pakistani cities. Pakistan
does have a ballistic missile to reach many cities in India, but does not have a warhead for it.
Q. Will India develop a nuclear triad as the US, Russians, French, and Chinese have?
A. No, India does not have the money and capability to develop a nuclear triad especially since it
does not have ballistic missile submarines.
June 8, 1998.
M.V. Rappai. Fellow of the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysts. Graduated from JNU
with degrees in Economics and Chinese.
Q. What was your reaction to the nuclear tests by India?
A. The nuclear test was welcomed because India has shown that it has the capability to make
such devices. India should test these devices before it signs the CTBT, it had no other option but
to show the world. The first world nations have been trying to deny certain technical knowledge
to third world nations and that is wrong.
Q. How do you feel about Pakistan’s test?
A. Pakistan’s test was expected especially after India did it. However, Pakistan was preparing for
a test before India, since it takes more than 15 days to prepare for a nuclear test and there is
evidence that Pakistan was planning for months to test its nuclear devices.
Q. Do you feel that these tests were a political move by the BJP party?
A. The BJP did take political advantage from these tests. However, these tests were conducted
because international pressure was so great about India signing the CTBT that India did not want
to be bullied by the bigger nations.
Q. What about China’s reaction to the tests?
A. China’s reaction was expected since they have been helping Pakistan develop their missiles
and nuclear technology for years. Before the test, China was opposing the US on the NPT and the
CTBT. Now it is supporting the US. China feels that it is equal to the US and that it is a global
police power.
Q. What about the reaction of the US?
A. The US has always tried to be the global police nation in the world. India will not be bothered
by its reaction.
Q. Do you feel it is in the best interest of the US and other nations to make India stronger to
counter China?
A. It is in the best interest of the world that India be a stronger nation to counter China in the
region; a balance of power.
May 25, 1998.
Subramanian, Age 40, tax consultant, chartered. B.C. Math, C.A. Institute.
Q. Did you hear about the nuclear explosion?
A. Yes, I have heard about the nuclear test conducted by India.
Q. What was your reaction to the test?
A. It was the right time to test the device and let the world know India had the bomb.
Q. Do you feel that India should be spending its money on nuclear tests or should it be focusing
more on the domestic needs of the people?
A. If neighboring countries create bombs then India should be spending money on nuclear
bombs.
Q. How did you feel about the reaction of the US?
A. I did not support the US reaction. Americans want to have their own nuclear bombs, but not
other nations. India though believes in nuclear proliferation.
Q. Do you believe there will be an arms race between India, Pakistan, and China?
A. There will not be an arms race between India, Pakistan, and China.
Q. Do you feel that it is in the best interest of the United States to make India a stronger nation to
counter the growing power of China in the region?
A. The US does not need to make India a stronger nation to counter China. China knows what we
have now.
Q. Do you feel that relations between India and the US can improve?
A. The problems between the US and India are not from the people, but from the leaders in both
nations and from opposing parties in both countries’ government. Also, there is the problem of
people interpreting differently and that is what is going on now with the US and India. That
creates negative views and opinions. There needs to be a team from both nations to sit down and
solve the problems between these two nations.
May 25, 1998.
Radhakrishnan M.S., Age 30, India Tech Pvt LTD. Masters in Economics.
Q. What was your reaction to the nuclear test?
A. As a citizen, India should have exploded the bomb, though as a man of peace, I am against it.
Many people lost their lives in Japan from a nuclear bomb and overall such weapons are not a
good thing for the world.
Q. Do you feel that it was proper for India to test the nuclear device or should it focus its
attention on the needs of the people?
A. In 1974, India exploded a nuclear device. We already showed the world we are capable so
these test were not needed.
Q. How did you feel about the reaction of the US?
A. America thinks they are number one and thinks they should be allowed to do whatever they
want and that other nations must obey. This is not right; every nation is independent and must set
its own course.
Q. Do you feel that it is in the best interest of the US and other nations that India be a stronger
nation to counter the growing power of China in Asia?
A. The US doesn’t need to make India a stronger nation.
Q. Do you feel that there will be an arms race between India, Pakistan, and China?
A. There will not be an arms race between India and Pakistan. China is the threat. China and
India are equally strong so there might be some sort of competition between them.
May 22, 1998.
P.P. Pillai. Age 62. BJP Mandela president, Kerala. Retired employee of FACT.
Q. Do you know about the nuclear test?
A. Yes.
Q. As a BJP official, why did your party choose to test the device.
A. It happened on May 11, the prime minister called all the BJP representatives to his home to
declare that India had tested a nuclear device at Pockran. The representatives were very happy or
supportive of the idea to test a nuclear device. Indira Ghandi did it in 1974, but there had been no
atomic activity since then. Another thing that has been going on is the terrorist activity in
Kashmir against the government which Pakistan supported. This was a major annoyance to the
Indian people for a long time. The India Secret Police knew all this was going on, but did not
react because with the passing of several elections to win parliament, the government did not
react. After the BJP took control of parliament, they gave an election manifesto in which they
declared they would put an end to terrorist and test nuclear weapons to declare to its neighbors
that India was a nuclear power. It was not meant to attack Pakistan, but to guard against an attack
from Pakistan.
Q. How do you feel about China?
A. China is showing aggression to India at this time. However, if they threaten India in the future,
they should know that India has nuclear weapons to deter them.
Q. How do you feel about the comments made by your defense minister?
A. In my opinion, he did the wrong thing. When relations between nations are going smoothly,
then the defense minister should have some sense and shut up.
Q. How do you feel about the reaction of the US?
A. America is a great nation with a bad president. Indians like the American people, but are
mislead by their government. The US should not think negative of us for what we did since it
was for security reasons.
Q. Do you feel that the test was the best thing for the country or should the government be
focusing on the domestic needs of the people?
A. India is a rich nation with poor people that does not use it resources properly. It has to find a
balance for itself to meet its security needs and meet the needs of the people.
Q. What are the opposition parties saying about the test?
A. Well, one thing that must be said is that the man behind the bomb in India is a Muslim, so it is
not a religious thing. Sonia Gandhi, wife of former prime minister of Rajiv Gandhi, is opposed to
the test and said it was not the right time for the government to conduct such a test. The Marxist
party objected to the test only because they want the vote of the Muslim population.
End Notes
1
“Indian Nuclear Testing” found at: http://www.ocdi.gov/cia/public_affairs/press_release/pr051298.html June 1998.
2
“Indo-Chinese War of 1962” found at www.globalsecurity.org//military/world/war/indo-prc_1962.htm July 2008
3
Interview with a Mr. PKS Namboodiri, Former Researcher at the Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis on June
7, 1998.
4
The Indian Express. “It was H-Bomb, confirms Govt.” May 18, 1998
5
ibid
6
State Department Brief, Strobe Talbott, Deputy Secretary of State. Found at
Http://www/state.gov/www/policy_remarks/ June 30, 1998
7
Joint Communique, Geneva. June 4, 1998
8
ibid
9
“Organization of American States: 34 Member States Condemn Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Testing.” Found at
http://www.state.gov/www/regions/ara/ on June 30, 1998.
10
The White House: Office of the Press Secretary. “Remarks by the President and Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright.” Found at http://www.state.gov/www/region/eap on June 30, 1998
11
“India’s and Pakistan’s Nuclear Test” found at http://www.state.gov/www/policy_remarks/ on June 30, 1998
12
“Fact Sheet: India and Pakistan Sanctions.” Found at http://www.state.gov/www/regions/sa/ on June 30, 1998.
13
Joshni, Mano. India Today, “Nuclear Shock Waves” May 25, 1998.
14
Auster, Bruce B. US News and World Report, “An Explosion of Indian Pride, A series of Nuclear Test caught US
Analysis napping. Is Pakistan Next?” May 25, 1998.
xv
Subrahimanyam, K. Indian Express, “Understanding China: Sun Tzu and Shakti.” May 26, 1998.

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Historical paper on indian nuclear test 1998

  • 1. An After-Action Review Of The Indian Nuclear Test During May 11-13, 1998 And Actions Taken By The World By Chad M. Pillai
  • 2. On May 17, 1998, I landed in India for a family trip. A few days before arriving, India had caused an international crisis for testing nuclear weapons. As a result, the world was scrambling to curb further nuclear tests and trying to prevent Pakistan from following suite. As a person interested in the intelligence field, I took the opportunity to gather as much information as I could on the issue. I was able to gather information by conducting interviews, reading various local and national papers, and watching CNN and the BBC. After my trip, I had the opportunity to work for the US State Department as an intern where I took the opportunity to do more research by working with the bureaus that focus on that region of the world. The following report explains the crisis as of May 1998, some background information as to the development of the crisis, some possible predictions for the future, and a section with some personal reactions and recommendations on the crisis. Background Information: “The most savage religious war in history was neither the Christian Crusades against Islam nor the Thirty Years’ War that pitted Catholics against the Protestants. It was the war of Hindu against Moslem in the Twentieth Century.”1 Since their independence in 1947, India and Pakistan have fought three wars. These conflicts occurred in 1947, 1965, and 1971. Most of the conflicts ended in stalemate between the two nations. Two of those wars were fought over Kashmir, a beautiful province in the North-Western section of the India that is the border between India and Pakistan. In 1962, India fought a border war with China. India was defeated and China to this day still occupies Indian Territory. In 1986, these nations had a smaller border clash in which India was able to occupy Chinese territory in retaliation for territory lost in 1962. Since then the two nations have been trying to establish better relations.2 Back in the 1950's India was the first country in Asia to build a nuclear reactor for electrical power generation. India received a great deal of help from the United States. There were rumors that the United States wanted to make India a nuclear power state to counter Communist China before China became a nuclear power. Once China tested a nuclear device in 1964, the US felt that too many nations were developing nuclear weapons and canceled its plans to make India a nuclear weapons state. The US continued to supply technical and financial help to India until the 1970s.3 In 1974, India tested a nuclear device which makes this year’s test not the first. After the test, the US stopped aiding India; however, India continued to receive its technical help from the former Soviet Union. Even though India tested a nuclear device, it did not weaponize it. Around the same time, it is believed that Pakistan began their clandestine nuclear program to catch up with India.
  • 3. In 1990, India and Pakistan almost went to war again, but the war was averted, and the US noticed that both sides were getting ready to manufacture nuclear weapons for possible deployment. The US contacted both parties requesting that they halt their nuclear programs. Pakistan was put under sanctions and lost their order of F-16 fighter jets. India promised not to continue with its nuclear program. “The US was paying close attention for a while and then stopped; however, the potential for possible nuclear tests has been known for many years. Scrutiny was devoted to the issue in late 1995 and the subject was addressed once again following recent Pakistani missile tests. It is apparent that the Indians went to some length to conceal their activities and intentions.”4 They did this by setting up the area ahead of time, knowing when US satellites would be orbiting above them, and working at night. However, the US intelligence community missed the test even after India’s intentions were made public by the new political party in power. All this led up to the present situation which began on May 11, 1998. Present Situation: On May 11, 1998, the world awoke to a new nuclear power. India had simultaneously tested three nuclear devices in the desert sands of Pockran. The three devices tested were a fission device with a yield of 12 Kilotons, a thermonuclear device with a yield of 43 Kilotons, and a Sub-Kiloton device.5 On May 13, 1998, the government conducted two more tests. These two tests were of Sub-Kiloton type in the range of 0.2 and 0.6 Kilotons.6 After the tests, the government publicly admitted the tests and received a lot of support from the population. Many Indians felt that the government was finally standing up for the country’s rights. There were many public demonstrations of support in New Delhi in front of the Prime Minister’s home. Many people felt that their country would gain respect from the rest of the world for the tests, but that was not to be the case. These tests set off an outcry of protest. Several nations including the United States imposed immediate economic sanctions on India and called for India to halt further nuclear tests and missile launches. The immediate fear was that Pakistan, a long-time rival of India would conduct its own nuclear test and would start a nuclear arms race in South Asia. Many nations and international organizations held high priority meetings to discuss the growing crisis in South Asia. As stated in a United States State Department briefing, “The key international meetings, of course, were the gathering of the (P-5) Permanent Five Members (only five declared nuclear states) of the National Security Council of the United Nations in Geneva on June 4, the Security Council resolution on June 6, and the meeting in London on June 12 of the G-8 (the eight economically developed nations of the world), as well as a number of states that have themselves forsworn the acquisition of nuclear weapons. These various gatherings have served to demonstrate that the international community has closed ranks behind many steps that is felt are very important for India and Pakistan to take if they are going to move back from the brink that
  • 4. they have approached. Summarizing briefly what is being asked of India: Stop all further tests, adhere to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) immediately and unconditionally, refrain from the manufacture of warheads and bombs or attaching those to ballistic missiles, refrain from testing or deployment of missiles that would be capable of delivering nuclear warheads, halt the production of fissile material and participate constructively in negotiations on fissile material cutoff in Geneva, confirm policies not to export equipment, material or technology relevant to missiles or weapons of mass destruction and enter into an ironclad commitments in that regard, refrain from threatening military movements or violations across the borders and particularly the line of control or any provocative acts or statements, and reestablish direct communications between India and Pakistan with a view to addressing the basic cause of the tensions between those countries, including the issue of Kashmir.7 During the meetings in Geneva, the ministers representing the nations concerned pledged that they will actively encourage India and Pakistan to find mutually acceptable solutions, through direct dialogue, that address the root cause of the tension, including Kashmir, and try to build confidence rather than seek confrontation. In that connection, the ministers urged both parties to avoid threatening military movements, cross- border violations, or other provocative acts. They will encourage India and Pakistan to adopt practical measures to prevent an arms race.8 Around May 28-31, 1998, Pakistan conducted six nuclear tests in retaliation for the nuclear tests conducted by India. Most of the tests were of very low yield. Even though Pakistan has claimed it tested a thermonuclear device, the evidence shows otherwise. It is believed that Pakistan tested a fission device with a booster to make it more powerful, but not in the range of a thermonuclear device. Following these tests, other world organizations, such as the Organization of American States (OAS) met to discuss the issues concerning the recent nuclear tests. On June 3, the OAS met to discuss the nuclear tests by India by Pakistan. During the meeting, the OAS made several resolutions involving towards India and Pakistan. 1. To condemn the nuclear test explosions conducted by the governments of India and Pakistan and firmly urges them to refrain from further nuclear testing, missile deployment and weaponization, or other steps which will further escalate tensions in the region, and appeals to the Governments of India and Pakistan to peacefully resolve their differences; to accede to the Treaty of Non-Proliferation (NPT); to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty without delay and without conditions; and to participate, in a positive spirit, in the proposed negotiations with other states for a fissile material cut-off treaty. 2. That the nuclear tests conducted by the governments of India and Pakistan jeopardize the treaty on Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons, the maintenance of which is indispensable for international peace and security, and therefore, urges all states, those of South Asia to exercise maximum restraint and refrain from further nuclear testing. 3. To place at the disposal of India and Pakistan the experience regarding agreements to guarantee the non-proliferation and banning of nuclear weapons and the mechanisms for implementing them, particularly the Treaty of Tlatelolco of 1967 and the Brazil-Argentine
  • 5. Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials. 4. To reaffirm the commitment of all member states to work towards universal adherence to the Treaty of Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as well as to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and its early entry into force, considering these essential elements to avoid the proliferation of nuclear weapons and as a means of promoting nuclear disarmament.9 On the same day, President Clinton made statements in the rose garden concerning the nuclear tests conducted by India and Pakistan. The first statement made was “The nuclear tests by India and Pakistan stand in stark contrast to the progress the world has made over the past several years in reducing stockpiles and containing the spread of nuclear weapons. It is also contrary to the ideals of nonviolent democratic freedom and independence at the heart of Gandhi’s struggle to end colonialism on the Indian subcontinent.” Next, he said “India and Pakistan are great nations with boundless potential, but developing weapons of mass destruction is self-defeating, wasteful, and dangerous. It will make their people poorer and less secure. The international community must now come together to move them through a diverse course and to avoid a dangerous arms race in Asia.” At the same conference, Secretary Madeleine Albright stated “Unlike the United States and the former Soviet Union during the Cold War, India and Pakistan do not have the benefit of a vast ocean between them. They are next door neighbors with a past of conflict and a present of bitter mistrust. Under the circumstances, the citizens of each nation should understand what is obvious to the world--that both Indians and Pakistanis are far less secure today than they were three weeks ago.”10 In the immediate aftermath of the tests by India and Pakistan, the US became quite concerned about the tense atmosphere in the region, and by provocative statements and actions by officials of both countries that appeared to be intended solely to stir the pot. In that kind of environment, there is an increased capacity for one-upmanship or miscalculation, with potentially devastating consequences. Lately, a cooling been noticed recently in the rhetoric from both Islamabad and New Delhi, and there have been calls from both capitals to resume direct dialogue. Both have declared a moratorium on further nuclear testing and have taken a more cautious line on future developments regarding their nuclear and missile programs. India has made positive statements about a willingness to participate in negotiations toward a fissile material cut-off treaty; it is hoped Pakistan will follow suite. The United States does not wish to isolate either country, but rather encourage both to take steps to demonstrate a firm commitment to global non-proliferation norms and to improve their relationship with one another. However, the administration must ensure the implementation of the Glen Amendment which is meant to punish the Government of India and Pakistan, but not the people of either country or the interests of US businesses.11 The following is a break down of the initiatives the United States has taken towards India and Pakistan.
  • 6. The United States imposed sanctions on India and Pakistan because of their nuclear test in May. By imposing these sanctions, it seeks:  To send a strong message to would-be nuclear testers;  To have maximum influence on Indian and Pakistani behavior;  To target the governments, rather than the people; and,  To minimize the damage to US interest. The goals are that India and Pakistan:  Halt further nuclear tests;  Sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) immediately and without conditions;  Not deploy or test missiles or nuclear weapons;  Cut off fissile material production for nuclear weapons;  Cooperate in Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) negotiations in Geneva;  Maintain and formalize restraints on sharing sensitive goods and technologies with other countries; and,  Reduce bilateral tensions, including Kashmir. Accordingly, the United States:  Terminated or suspended foreign assistance under the Foreign Assistance Act, with exceptions provided by law (e.g., humanitarian assistance, food, or other agricultural commodities). --$21 million in economic development assistance and housing guarantee authority for India terminated. --$6 million Greenhouse Gas program in India suspended. --Trade Development Agency will not consider new projects. --Most assistance of Pakistan had already been prohibited.  Terminated foreign military sales under the Arms Export Control Act, and revoked licenses for the commercial sale of any item on the US munitions list. --Suspended delivery of previously approved defense articles and services to India.  Halted any new commitments of USG credits and credit guarantees by USG entities (EXIM, OPIC,CCC). --The administration will support legislation to permit CCC credits for food and
  • 7. agricultural commodities. --OPIC had only recently reopened in Pakistan. However, India was one of OPIC’s top five countries receiving an average of $300 million annually in OPIC support. --EXIM had only recently reopened in Pakistan with one expression of interest pending for $1.1 million; $500 million in pending financing in India will not go forward.  Gained G-8 support to postpone consideration of non-basic human need (BHN) loans for India and Pakistan by the International Financial Institutions (IFI) to bolster the effect of the Glen Amendment requirement that the US oppose non-BHN IFI loans. --$1.17 billion in IFI lending postponed for India. --Although no IFI loans for Pakistan have been presented for board consideration, $25 million in IMF assistance has been postponed for failure to meet economic benchmarks.  Will issue Executive Orders to prohibit US banks from extending loans or credits to the Governments of India and Pakistan.  Will deny export of all dual-use exports to entities involved in nuclear or missile programs. --Will toughen existing controls for government military entities. --Will continue denial of nuclear exports licensed by NRC or authorized by DOE; and --Will continue to favorably consider, on a case-by-case basis, other transactions which do not support nuclear, missile, or inappropriate military activities.12 In response to Indian nuclear tests, the government in India was claiming a victory for the people. The people were supporting the tests. Around 87 percent of the population supported the tests, 86 percent feel that the India should weaponize its nuclear devices, 64 percent did not believe the tests were a political move, 92 percent they feel more proud to be Indian, 88 percent feel that India will emerge stronger from the tests, 62 percent do not feel that the sanctions will hurt the economy, 49 percent feel that economic relations with the United States will worsen, and 63 percent feel that India will not become unpopular in the international community.13 The percentages demonstrate how the Indian people feel about the tests. Actually, many Indians took pride in the fact that their government poisoned relations with the United States and the rest of the world. 14 India claims that there were several security reasons for it testing a nuclear device. The biggest reason was the fear of China. India believes that China has been aiding Pakistan in developing its nuclear weapons program. This was obvious to them by China’s shipment of special electromagnetic devices used for Nuclear weapons research. Additionally, China supplied them with other forms of technology and financial aid for their weapons program. Another thing that India fears from China is the 70-nuclear tipped CSS-2 missiles believed to be
  • 8. in Tibet and aimed at India.xv India wanted to show China that it is not a pushover and that it will stand up for its rights. At the same time, India does not want to enter an arms race with China and would like to establish friendly economic ties. Many people do not consider Pakistan a major military threat to India. They see Pakistan as an annoyance to the people, but not something that will pose a threat to its sovereignty. It is evident from my experience in India that the educated members of that society understand what is going on and fear China more than anything. Those who are not educated and hear news from others fear Pakistan the most. India has been fighting for nuclear non-proliferation for a long time. The earliest leaders of India rejected the use of nuclear weapons. They were major players during the Cold War for nuclear disarmament. The latest tests seem to be some sort of irony to the world that a nation that has fought so long for nuclear disarmament goes nuclear. India claims that by going nuclear it is in a better position to argue for nuclear disarmament with the other nuclear states. Many Indians also understand that they cannot afford to develop an expensive nuclear triad defense like the US and Russia did. The cost would be enormous for India to undertake and it is understood that it would also be impossible for Pakistan to create a nuclear triad. The actions of India and Pakistan have Israel very worry. Israel, an undeclared nuclear power believed to have around 100-200 nuclear weapons, is afraid that the latest round of test will encourage Iran, Libya, and Iraq to continue with their nuclear programs. Being long time enemies, this poses a great deal of concern to Israel and the rest of the world. Many feel that Pakistan will assist Iran with its nuclear program. India currently does not plan on exporting its technology and information to any other country of the world. The Future: The future of the conflict will depend on whether India, Pakistan, and China are able to settle their differences peacefully. The world will place a sharper eye on that region of the world to ensure that these countries do not make the same mistake that the US and Russia did during the Cold War. Presently, these countries do not have the resources to develop large arsenals of nuclear weapons. Also, their economies could not sustain a major expensive arms race. Most of the cost will not come from developing nuclear weapons, but from developing the delivery systems needed to make the nuclear devices into a viable weapon system. Hopefully, these nations will wake up and see the mistake they are making. India and Pakistan should be more worried about providing enough food to their people, developing their infrastructure, population control, and providing electrical power to their people. What India needs now is more nuclear power plants to power their villages rather than nuclear weapons. Their priorities are backward currently. The US and other nations hope that India and Pakistan will sign the CTBT and NPT. India is already close to signing the CTBT with the conditions that some parts of the treaty be changed and that more of a promise of nuclear disarmament be made. Hopefully, Pakistan will follow suite with India and the other nations of the world who pledge to fight the evils of nuclear weapons.
  • 9. Reactions and Recommendations: I have a few reactions from my travel to India and my work in Washington, D.C. The first is that I do not believe that our own country is doing enough to show the world that we are trying to reduce our nuclear stockpile. We are reducing our own nuclear stockpile by getting rid of the older and less accurate weapons and replacing them with newer and more accurate weapon systems. The United States has joined with Russia to reduce nuclear stockpiles from over 20,000 warheads apiece to about 3,000 warheads. Three thousand warheads apiece is still enough to destroy every living creature on this planet several times over. Countries like France, England, and China have several hundred warheads and that is still too many. We must be willing to slash our nuclear stockpile even more to demonstrate to the world that we are serious as a nation. Other nations are not going to listen to us if we do not take the steps to disarm ourselves first. Another interesting irony that I have noticed concerns in the region of South Asia. India is the only real Democracy. China is Communist and Pakistan is ruled by the Military and the elite. Over the years, the US has given more support to Pakistan and China than India. Now, if the US claims that it fights to preserve Democracy, why has it not supported India over the years? I believe it is time for the US to change its foreign policy and start doing the right thing. It is our responsibility to help India out. It is the largest Democracy in the world and with a growing population that will surpass China; it will be a very large economic market for the US. India has a larger middle class than China which means that Indians will be able to buy more of our products than the Chinese. In terms of strategic power plays, India could be very useful to the United States. It is without question that China has become a major military power in Asia and the world. By helping India, the US could play India and China against one another in major Asian crisis. With roughly equal populations and with India having more technology, the Indians could counter Chinese aggression. This would help the US gain more influence in the region. I am not recommending though that the US make China an enemy. Letting China know that there is a major regional power next door will help them negotiate favorable deals for the US. I truly hope that the situation in South Asia becomes stable and that there will be no arms race. The world has come close to nuclear war several times and the threat remains with nuclear weapons around and continual proliferation. The greatest risk though is that a nuclear device may be stolen by a terrorist group which will not think twice about the consequences of their actions. It is important that the world work towards total nuclear disarmament and that peace may reign on earth. Interviews: The following are the result of several interviews that I conducted while in India. They give a good idea of the mind set of the Indian people.
  • 10. June 7, 1998. PKS Namboodiri, 58 yrs, Former researcher at the Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis. A retired official of the Indian Cabinet Secretariate. Holds a Masters in Political Science from Delhi University. Q. What was your reaction to the nuclear tests conducted by India on May 11 and May 13? A. I felt proud of the nuclear tests for the reason that we were able to withstand international pressure and demonstrated our determination to pursue the nuclear option in the best interest of the Nation’s defense and security. Q. Do you feel these tests will bring stability to the region of South Asia? A. National security ensures certain stability in the country and allows for progress in other areas. Security is a sort of fencing or an insurance policy for the nation. Nuclear security is an important aspect of total national security in the present nuclear environment in which India is placed in that we have a major nuclear adversary, China, to our north and until now a clandestine covert nuclear state of Pakistan. International nuclear regimes represented by the five weapons states have been exerting excessive pressure on India to join CTBT and comply with other so called NPT measures. Under these circumstances, India had no other choice but to test a nuclear device. Q. Do you believe these tests will bring stability and unity to the people of India? A. These tests will enhance unity within India. Different political parties will try to take advantage or deprive the advantage to others and in the process some temporary instability will be created, but overall public opinion polls show a great deal of public support throughout the country and this will enhance unity among the Indian people. Q. How did you feel about the reactions of Pakistan and the US? A. Pakistan’s reaction was quite natural in that India being the one and only enemy, their behavior was quite predictable. The US reaction was also partly due to frustration caused by the nuclear non-proliferation and the US being upset partly due to its in inability to develop a viable policy towards India, Pakistan, and China. Q. Will there be an arms race in South Asia between India, Pakistan, and possibly China? A. Not certainly an arms race by the western model between the Soviet Union and the US. The primary concern of the three nuclear states in Asia is to have nuclear deterrence against one another. They seem to believe in a minimum deterrent philosophy. Just like China is not wanting and cannot in the foreseeable future catch up with the US or Russia in its nuclear arsenal or delivering systems, India may not want to catch up with China and Pakistan, and they may not want to catch up with India. What all three in this triangular deterrent in Asia need is an explicit capability to deter the adversary from threatening or nuclear blackmailing. Now that India and Pakistan have an explicit nuclear capability, this deterrence is going to satisfy the consciousness of these states of each other and this will likely keep the arsenals at a minimum level rather than leading to a competitive arms races.
  • 11. Q. Do you believe the Chinese-Pakistani connection will continue? A. Pakistan-Chinese nuclear collaboration will continue especially since the Chinese strategy of containing India within the subcontinent has become more pronounce in the post Pockrain II phase. More important, there seems to be some sort of strategic understanding between Washington and Beijing. On this score, the Chinese are not particularly bothered about US displeasure for violations of NPT rules which prohibit a nuclear weapon country passing nuclear material and technology to other nations. Q. Do you feel these tests will enhance or weaken the argument for nuclear disarmament? A. Yes, it will enhance nuclear disarmament. India was the first country in Asia to have a nuclear reactor in 1954 and developed the capability to develop nuclear weapons early on. India’s commitment to nuclear disarmament prevented it from going nuclear even after the Chinese went nuclear in 1964 and defeated India in a border war two years before. India was one of the earliest supporters for nuclear disarmament. Even after 1974 when India openly demonstrated its nuclear capability, it resisted its nuclear program from weaponizing hoping that the international community would move towards nuclear disarmament. Then the NPT, CTBT, and FMCT sought to legitimize the declared nuclear weapons nations and allowed them to keep their nuclear weapons. The CTBT was being forced upon India by the end of 1998 regardless of its objections to it, and India was threatened with sanctions if it did not sign it. Under these circumstances, India had no choice but to test a nuclear device and move forward with a weaponization program as leverage for demanding global disarmament. Even at this stage, what India is seeking is a global convention on nuclear disarmament under a non-discriminating UN regime. Q. Do you feel that it is in the best interest of the US and other nations to make India a more powerful nation to counter the growing power of China in the region? A. That is for the Americans to decide. The Americans and the Chinese have an understanding and they have divided the world. China will take care of Asia and the Northern Pacific. The US will take care of Europe and the South Pacific. Regarding the domino effect that the US talked about in the 1960's, The US State Department wanted to make India a nuclear weapons nation to counter communist China’s growing power; however, after China exploded a nuclear device in 1964, the US decided that no other nation in the world should have nuclear weapons and the non-proliferation movement began in 1967.
  • 12. June 8, 1998. Dr. R.R. Subramanian. Senior Research Associate for the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis. Holds a Ph.D. in Physics. Attended Brandius, Standford, Berkley, Harvard, Delhi, and Calcutta Universities. Q. What was your reaction to the nuclear tests conducted by India. A. India had already exploded a nuclear device in 1974. At that time there was no domestic or political impact. The tests conducted this time were more for show rather than substance. It was meant to show the world that India had the capability and that they should respect India for it. Q. What are the reasons that India tested the devices and are they specifically intended towards any particular nation? A. China is the number one nuclear threat in the region. Pakistan is not a threat to India. India has no capability to counter China’s nuclear weapons. China has targeted India by placing IRBM missiles in Tibet with nuclear warheads. Q. How is India going to counter China? A. India must develop weapon systems like the Agni missile and work for an assured second- strike capability with 45 to 55 IRBM missiles to strike Chinese cities. Today, Indian scientists have enough data to develop weapons by using super computers. Indians have supercomputers like the Americans to test parallel processes. India must test fire the Agni II missile with a range of 5000 km. In 1974, the Pockran I test was a lot of smoke no fire, now India must fashion warheads with yields that can be carried on ballistic missiles. It is important for India to develop a nuclear deterrent against China using the French model (The bee-sting counter attack). India is also developing ICBMs that could possibly reach the US (SUYA missile). The US Pentagon has tested the possibility of India having nuclear weapons in Asia to counter China or Russia in the fashion that the United Kingdom and France developed nuclear weapons to counter the Soviet Union. Q. So Pakistan is not a strategic threat to India? A. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are for tactical purposes; battlefield use only. They do not have the weapons to attack Indian cities to the extent that India can destroy Pakistani cities. Pakistan does have a ballistic missile to reach many cities in India, but does not have a warhead for it. Q. Will India develop a nuclear triad as the US, Russians, French, and Chinese have? A. No, India does not have the money and capability to develop a nuclear triad especially since it does not have ballistic missile submarines.
  • 13. June 8, 1998. M.V. Rappai. Fellow of the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysts. Graduated from JNU with degrees in Economics and Chinese. Q. What was your reaction to the nuclear tests by India? A. The nuclear test was welcomed because India has shown that it has the capability to make such devices. India should test these devices before it signs the CTBT, it had no other option but to show the world. The first world nations have been trying to deny certain technical knowledge to third world nations and that is wrong. Q. How do you feel about Pakistan’s test? A. Pakistan’s test was expected especially after India did it. However, Pakistan was preparing for a test before India, since it takes more than 15 days to prepare for a nuclear test and there is evidence that Pakistan was planning for months to test its nuclear devices. Q. Do you feel that these tests were a political move by the BJP party? A. The BJP did take political advantage from these tests. However, these tests were conducted because international pressure was so great about India signing the CTBT that India did not want to be bullied by the bigger nations. Q. What about China’s reaction to the tests? A. China’s reaction was expected since they have been helping Pakistan develop their missiles and nuclear technology for years. Before the test, China was opposing the US on the NPT and the CTBT. Now it is supporting the US. China feels that it is equal to the US and that it is a global police power. Q. What about the reaction of the US? A. The US has always tried to be the global police nation in the world. India will not be bothered by its reaction. Q. Do you feel it is in the best interest of the US and other nations to make India stronger to counter China? A. It is in the best interest of the world that India be a stronger nation to counter China in the region; a balance of power.
  • 14. May 25, 1998. Subramanian, Age 40, tax consultant, chartered. B.C. Math, C.A. Institute. Q. Did you hear about the nuclear explosion? A. Yes, I have heard about the nuclear test conducted by India. Q. What was your reaction to the test? A. It was the right time to test the device and let the world know India had the bomb. Q. Do you feel that India should be spending its money on nuclear tests or should it be focusing more on the domestic needs of the people? A. If neighboring countries create bombs then India should be spending money on nuclear bombs. Q. How did you feel about the reaction of the US? A. I did not support the US reaction. Americans want to have their own nuclear bombs, but not other nations. India though believes in nuclear proliferation. Q. Do you believe there will be an arms race between India, Pakistan, and China? A. There will not be an arms race between India, Pakistan, and China. Q. Do you feel that it is in the best interest of the United States to make India a stronger nation to counter the growing power of China in the region? A. The US does not need to make India a stronger nation to counter China. China knows what we have now. Q. Do you feel that relations between India and the US can improve? A. The problems between the US and India are not from the people, but from the leaders in both nations and from opposing parties in both countries’ government. Also, there is the problem of people interpreting differently and that is what is going on now with the US and India. That creates negative views and opinions. There needs to be a team from both nations to sit down and solve the problems between these two nations.
  • 15. May 25, 1998. Radhakrishnan M.S., Age 30, India Tech Pvt LTD. Masters in Economics. Q. What was your reaction to the nuclear test? A. As a citizen, India should have exploded the bomb, though as a man of peace, I am against it. Many people lost their lives in Japan from a nuclear bomb and overall such weapons are not a good thing for the world. Q. Do you feel that it was proper for India to test the nuclear device or should it focus its attention on the needs of the people? A. In 1974, India exploded a nuclear device. We already showed the world we are capable so these test were not needed. Q. How did you feel about the reaction of the US? A. America thinks they are number one and thinks they should be allowed to do whatever they want and that other nations must obey. This is not right; every nation is independent and must set its own course. Q. Do you feel that it is in the best interest of the US and other nations that India be a stronger nation to counter the growing power of China in Asia? A. The US doesn’t need to make India a stronger nation. Q. Do you feel that there will be an arms race between India, Pakistan, and China? A. There will not be an arms race between India and Pakistan. China is the threat. China and India are equally strong so there might be some sort of competition between them. May 22, 1998. P.P. Pillai. Age 62. BJP Mandela president, Kerala. Retired employee of FACT. Q. Do you know about the nuclear test? A. Yes. Q. As a BJP official, why did your party choose to test the device. A. It happened on May 11, the prime minister called all the BJP representatives to his home to declare that India had tested a nuclear device at Pockran. The representatives were very happy or supportive of the idea to test a nuclear device. Indira Ghandi did it in 1974, but there had been no atomic activity since then. Another thing that has been going on is the terrorist activity in Kashmir against the government which Pakistan supported. This was a major annoyance to the Indian people for a long time. The India Secret Police knew all this was going on, but did not
  • 16. react because with the passing of several elections to win parliament, the government did not react. After the BJP took control of parliament, they gave an election manifesto in which they declared they would put an end to terrorist and test nuclear weapons to declare to its neighbors that India was a nuclear power. It was not meant to attack Pakistan, but to guard against an attack from Pakistan. Q. How do you feel about China? A. China is showing aggression to India at this time. However, if they threaten India in the future, they should know that India has nuclear weapons to deter them. Q. How do you feel about the comments made by your defense minister? A. In my opinion, he did the wrong thing. When relations between nations are going smoothly, then the defense minister should have some sense and shut up. Q. How do you feel about the reaction of the US? A. America is a great nation with a bad president. Indians like the American people, but are mislead by their government. The US should not think negative of us for what we did since it was for security reasons. Q. Do you feel that the test was the best thing for the country or should the government be focusing on the domestic needs of the people? A. India is a rich nation with poor people that does not use it resources properly. It has to find a balance for itself to meet its security needs and meet the needs of the people. Q. What are the opposition parties saying about the test? A. Well, one thing that must be said is that the man behind the bomb in India is a Muslim, so it is not a religious thing. Sonia Gandhi, wife of former prime minister of Rajiv Gandhi, is opposed to the test and said it was not the right time for the government to conduct such a test. The Marxist party objected to the test only because they want the vote of the Muslim population.
  • 17. End Notes 1 “Indian Nuclear Testing” found at: http://www.ocdi.gov/cia/public_affairs/press_release/pr051298.html June 1998. 2 “Indo-Chinese War of 1962” found at www.globalsecurity.org//military/world/war/indo-prc_1962.htm July 2008 3 Interview with a Mr. PKS Namboodiri, Former Researcher at the Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis on June 7, 1998. 4 The Indian Express. “It was H-Bomb, confirms Govt.” May 18, 1998 5 ibid 6 State Department Brief, Strobe Talbott, Deputy Secretary of State. Found at Http://www/state.gov/www/policy_remarks/ June 30, 1998 7 Joint Communique, Geneva. June 4, 1998 8 ibid 9 “Organization of American States: 34 Member States Condemn Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Testing.” Found at http://www.state.gov/www/regions/ara/ on June 30, 1998. 10 The White House: Office of the Press Secretary. “Remarks by the President and Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.” Found at http://www.state.gov/www/region/eap on June 30, 1998 11 “India’s and Pakistan’s Nuclear Test” found at http://www.state.gov/www/policy_remarks/ on June 30, 1998 12 “Fact Sheet: India and Pakistan Sanctions.” Found at http://www.state.gov/www/regions/sa/ on June 30, 1998. 13 Joshni, Mano. India Today, “Nuclear Shock Waves” May 25, 1998. 14 Auster, Bruce B. US News and World Report, “An Explosion of Indian Pride, A series of Nuclear Test caught US Analysis napping. Is Pakistan Next?” May 25, 1998. xv Subrahimanyam, K. Indian Express, “Understanding China: Sun Tzu and Shakti.” May 26, 1998.