Heating device market in Poland in 2020

Report:
Heating appliances
market in Poland in
2020
Association of Heating Appliances Manufacturers and Importers
Warsaw, April 2021

Table of contents
1 Introduction.............................................................................. 2
2 General market situation in 2020............................................. 3
2.1 General economic situation in Poland in 2020 and factors which influenced
the growth of the installation and heating market...................................................4
2.2 Residential construction.................................................................................7
3 Market growth in selected product groups in Poland in 2020 13
3.2 Selected product groups in Poland in 2020 .................................................18
3.2.1 Wall-hung gas boilers......................................................................................20
3.2.2 Low temperature conventional wall-hung gas boilers .....................................21
3.2.3 Wall-hung condensing gas boilers ..................................................................23
3.3 Floor standing boilers (gas and oil)..............................................................24
3.3.1 Floor standing gas boilers ...............................................................................24
3.3.2 Floor standing condensing gas boilers............................................................26
3.3.3 Floor standing low-temperature conventional gas boilers ...............................27
3.3.4 High-power floor standing gas boilers (over 50 kW) .......................................28
3.3.5 Floor standing oil boilers .................................................................................29
3.4 Solid fuel boilers...........................................................................................33
3.5 Heat pumps..................................................................................................36
3.6 Electric heating.............................................................................................37
3.7 Solar collectors.............................................................................................40
3.8 Radiators and other installation elements....................................................43
4 Summary of the forecast for development of the installation
and heating market in the future................................................. 45

2
Report: Heating device market in Poland in 2020 2
1 Introduction
This report is another annual trade report concerning the development of the heating device
market.
The Association of Heating Appliances Manufacturers and Importers is a industrial organiza-
tion which gathers manufacturers of a broad range of heating appliances, such as gas boilers,
oil boilers, solid fuel boilers, electric boilers, solar collectors or heat pumps, and since 2018,
also a group of manufacturer of heating system components, such as surface heating. con-
trollers and automatics, as well as radiators. Moreover, SPIUG cooperates with manufactur-
ers that develop innovative heat sources, yet are not formal members of the organization.
Members of SPIUG include such brands as: ACV, Ariston, Baxi, Beretta, Buderus, DeDietrich,
Ferroli, Fondital, Galmet, Hewalex, Junkers, Bosch, Immergas, Kospel, Sanier Duval, Sofath,
Stiebel Eltron, Termet, Thermagen, Unical, Vaillant, Viega, Viessmann, Weishaupt, Wolf, and
since 2018 also Purmo Rettig, Uponor, Herz, Tece Perfexim, Kermi, Danfoss and Aberon.
The market of individual heating devices in Poland is one of the more significant ones in
Europe, and, after dynamic development in 2018, 2019 and 2020, still has a significant de-
velopment capacity. On account of the existing infrastructure and great government support
for system heat, a high percentage of new buildings in urban areas, particularly multi-family
buildings, is connected to heating networks, or can be connected due to the existing, nearby
infrastructure. This type of heat supply is also eligible for government and local support, as
the network heat is included in the PEP2040 (Polish Power Policy till 2040). Currently, a pro-
ject for developing the heating strategy in Poland is being prepared, which will finally take into
account the need to transform the heat engineering by replacing fossil fuels with renewable
energy sources. Transformation of heating networks into systems which meet the RED II re-
quirements and preparation of RED III is a significant challenge for the companies operating
in this segment. All that influences the situation in the installation and heating market in Po-
land, and its growth. Also, the Green Deal Renovation Wave, announced by the UE in 2020,
will certainly affect the development of the heating device market in Poland in the years to
come.
Due to the specificity of the market of individual heating devices, as well as the SPIUG area
of operations, this report contains information about the development of the lower-power heat-
ing devices market, mostly under 50kW, but also takes into account slightly higher capacitates
up to 200 kW heating devices, included in the statistics as part of the study with slightly higher
output up to 500 kW. This report is based on SPIUG’s own analyses in the scope of the
heating devices, and in the section concerning the surroundings of the installation and heating
market is based on analyses available at the GUS and information collected directly from the
market, from fitters, manufacturers and distributors. Just like in the previous edition, lack of
reliable estimates concerning the market size and development of certain product groups
which constitute heating devices, prevents this report from presenting the market situation in
these groups, or allows to show a general analysis only.

Report: Heating device market in Poland in 2020
2 General market situation in 2020
2020 saw continuation of the market and economic events from the preceding years, which
positively affected the development of the installation and heating market in Poland, although
2020 hardly compared to the preceding years due to the coronavirus epidemic and its effect
on the Polish and global economy. So far, the installation and heating industry in Poland has
been managing quite well in this new situation, as demonstrated by increased turnover in the
entire industry throughout 2020, although obviously not equally in individual product groups
and business activity. Nonetheless, the upward trend persevered, but despite the positive
result, there was an evident decrease in the sales dynamics for most product groups of heat-
ing devices, apart from the heat pumps, or even certain drops. The predominant opinion was
that the coronavirus had no significant impact on the performance in the industry, but at the
end of 2020 there were talks about certain barriers in the fitters’ contacts with the end cus-
tomers, caused by fear of infection during the second wave of the pandemic in Poland, caus-
ing cancellation of services ordered earlier. Towards the end of the year, one could observe
a certain nervousness caused by increased prices of raw materials, particularly steel sheet,
in the global markets.
In 2020, the economic situation favouring investments intended to improve the air quality at
the local level and the mood in the industry had a noticeable effect on the purchase volume
for new heating devices. Increased consumption despite the initial concerns related to the
economic consequences of the pandemic, as well as the possibility of using EU finds from
the Regional Operational Programmes, combined with the changes made to the principles of
the Clean Air (Czyste Powietrze) priority programme certainly also affected the situation in
the installation and heating industry in 2020.
According to the opinions collected in the market, the result could be slightly better if not for
the noticeable employment problems – shore of specialists in workmanship and increases in
the prices of certain building materials. Moreover, some of the companies active in the fitting
and heating industry, with production plants in Poland, signalled the problem of workforce
shortage, which restricted the possibility of increasing production of devices and systems. In
2020, just like the year before, the market of replacing old heating devices with new ones was
dominant. It is the result of local programmes intended to prevent low emissions – active since
2017 – so-called umbrella programmes based on the Regional Operating Programmes per-
formed mostly at the commune level, based on EU funds which in 2020 started to expire,
visibly affecting the sales in certain product groups. Also, the government priority programmer
„Clean Air” (“Czyste Powietrze”), implemented in September 2018, intended to reduce low
emissions from heating, started incentivizing the investors to modernize their heating sys-
tems. Since the very beginning the functioning of this flagship support programme of
NFOSIGW was far from the expectations of the potential beneficiaries, which caused a rela-
tively small number of investigated applications, compared to the plans and expectations.
Since September 2019, works intended to improve the functioning and amend the rules of the

4
priority programme “Clean Air” have been in progress, in the scope of changes aimed at the
most effective use of the support funds in order to achieve the final effect of reducing low
emission and improving the air quality in Poland, which were completed in May 2020. The
implementation of the changes to the functioning of the programme enabled a four-fold in-
crease in the device replacement as part of the programme between May 2020 and January
2021, compared to the entire duration of the programme from September 2018 till May 2020,
although the changes were implemented gradually all the time until November 2020. Moreo-
ver, the media campaign publicizing the need to reduce low emissions significantly increased
the social awareness in this respect, which is obviously encouraging, although there is still
much to do in this area. The market situation in 2020 improved financial liquidity of the dis-
tributors, who, in fear of the negative economic aftermath of the pandemic, tightened the dis-
cipline of exacting payments. A higher money supply prevented the adopted policy from neg-
atively affecting the results of most companies in the industry, although the profit level was
diverse.
2.1 General economic situation in Poland in 2020 and
factors which influenced the growth of the installation
and heating market
In January 2021, GUS published statistical data concerning the economic situation in Poland
in 2019. According to the estimates presented by the GUS, in 2020 the general economic
performance in Poland will still be good, although there are certain concerns regarding infla-
tion, which has been increasing since 2019, and in 2020 translated into a 10% increase in the
exchange rate of the Polish currency for the US dollar, Euro and Swiss Franc. Yet, it is a fact
that there is a noticeable downward trend in the product sales dynamics for this industry in
Poland, which, since June 2019, has consistently been below the values from the preceding
year, which is not related directly to the coronavirus’ effect on the economy, but rather to the
structure of securing income for the budget and the mood among the entrepreneurs and the
consumers. A relatively high inflation level and the decreased value of the PLN towards EUR
and US dollar in 2020 induce a reflection on the actual sales increase for industry and econ-
omy in Poland. Lack of actual investments which, in a relatively short time, would boost the
financial results of the country, providing credit for the so-called flagship investments, aid and
social programmes by printing empty money do little to reinforce the citizens’ trust in the safety
of their savings deposited in banks, which is reflected by the outflow of money towards con-
sumption and real estate market, which indirectly translated into good financial performance
of the installation and heating industry. According to the data provided by the GUS, the in-
dustry production sales dynamics at fixed prices in Poland after Q2 2020 is as follows:
According to the data provided by GUS, the industrial production dynamics in 2020 was 1 %
lower than in 2018. A year before, this growth was 4 % compared to 2018.

Table 1. Trends in industrial production dynamics 2020 (source: GUS)
As far as construction is concerned, 2020 saw a general decrease of 2.2% compared to the
2.6% growth a year before and the 17.9% increase in 2018. In construction, a 1.3% increase
was recorded in the specialist construction works, which also include installation and heating
works, which affects the relatively good results in the heating industry.
Table 2. Trends in building production 2020
Companies which construct buildings also recorded a decrease of by 4.9%, while those oper-
ating primarily in the land and water engineering – by 2.0%. Between January and December
2020, there was a drop in the value of investment works compared to the analogous period of
DETAILED LIST I-XII
2019=100
I-XII
2019=100
INDUSTRY +4% -1,0%
Mining +1,1% -7,0%
Industrial processing +4,2% -1,0%
Production and provi-
sion of electricity, gas,
steam and hot water
+0,2% -1,1%
I-XII 2019 I-XII 2020
CONSTRUCTION +2,6% -2,2%
Building construction +2,4% -4,9%
Land and water engineering con-
struction
+2,6% -2,0%
Specialist construction works, in-
cluding installation and heating
works
+2,9% +1,3%

6
2019, coming to 1.1% compared to the 3.0 % increase in this statistical group in 2019, and
15.8% in 2018, whereas for renovation works the drop was 4.0 % compared to a 2.1 % increase
in 2019 and 21.4% in 2018.
According to the GUS data, the prices of construction and assembly production in 2020 were
2.6 % higher than in 2019, with a 3.0% increase in the building construction price and a 2.3
% increase in specialist construction works, which also encompass the installation and heat-
ing works, compared to 2019.
The numbers provided by GUS may raise doubts, seeing as a number of building materials
increased in prices in 2020 by several or more than ten per cent, although the price change
dynamics was lower than a year before. The costs of employment also significantly grew
further, but one may assume this happened at the expense of the margins acquired by con-
struction companies. This situation is worth investigating.
In construction, there was an increasingly visible slowdown caused by the coronavirus. There
is a clearly visible reduction of issuing new construction permits and the number of com-
menced constructions for which the permits were already issued, which in 2020 were already
in regression. One can see that the developers are less willing to start new investments, de-
spite continuously high demand for apartments caused by relocation of cash removed from
bank accounts by the investors. Developers and enclosed construction are much more vul-
nerable to the risk of recession, particularly as the pandemic has greatly reduced migration
and the demand for renting apartments, which is why many purchased apartments stay
empty, and some are even left unfinished. The investments commenced earlier and those at
an advanced construction stage were completed. There was also a visible workforce deficit,
which translated into higher wage requirements and increased investment costs/ Higher in-
creases in the form of construction permits and the number of new construction sites are
visible in the case of individual investors, which in the near future may translate into a larger
market for newly-installed individual heating devices, as in the cities, the developers mostly
used connections to the municipal central heating networks. In 2020, the construction indus-
try went through the current economic slowdown much more steadily than many other
branches of the economy in Poland. This is visible in the number of bankrupt construction
companies. The bankruptcy figures in construction are quite positive, compared to other in-
dustries. The situation in the construction company is relatively stable, particularly in residen-
tial construction, thanks to the continuously high demand, and the companies in this sector
manage relatively well. The situation is somewhat worse in the commercial construction, with
a visible decrease in the number of new investments, which affects the market of high-capac-
ity heating devices. The demand for new office spaces is decreasing, due to a noticeably
higher number of vacancies. This in no way changes the fact that although the liquidity in the
construction industry is far from tragic, the number of bankruptcies in 2020 increased by 12
%. The liquidity of construction entrepreneurs is still relatively good. It seems that a slowdown
in this sector may only be caused by a reduction in the willingness to invest and the financial

resources of potential investors. There is a noticeable shrinkage of the investments made by
companies and local governments, which was also perceptible in the installation and heating
industry.
2.2 Residential construction
The data revealing the trends in the residential construction are still increasingly negative,
which merits a certain cautiousness in planning turnover for the installation and heating in-
dustry for the next 1.5 year or 2 years, although the number of potential apartments to be
fitted with a heating system is still high.
Fig. 1 Number of apartments commissioned in 2014-2029 (Source: GUS)
The tendency of the investors’ share in the investments was also continued. In 2019, devel-
opers retained their dominating position, by building over 143.8 thousand apartments, which
is 64.8% of all the apartments commissioned in 2020, and was a 9.4 % increase compared
to 2019. Individual investors built about 74.1 thousand apartments, which means a 7.1 %
increase compared to 2019, which gave them a bit over 33.4 % of share in this statistical
category, which means this share was maintained. In 2020, much less apartments were com-
missioned in cooperative construction, where their number came to 1498 compared to
143166 147711
163325
178342
184783
207224
221978
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Number of apartments commisioned in 2014 - 2020

8
2167 in 2019, which means a decrease of about 30,9%. In other construction forms (tene-
ments, municipal and company), a total of 2570 apartments were commissioned, i.e. over
44.1 % less than in 2019. These results also have an impact on the structure of installed heat
sources.
Fig. 2 Tendencies in the number of apartments commissioned in 2014-2020, by
groups of investors (Source: GUS)
The structure of the commissioned apartments affects the structure of the installed heat
sources. Developers who build mostly in urban areas often make use of the possibilities of
connecting their buildings to the municipal heating network, which reduces the costs of the
installations by the heat sources replaced by the heat distribution centres, of course if the
infrastructure is available locally, which seems understandable and logical from the perspec-
tive of the developer business. Nonetheless, there are doubts regarding forcing this type of
connections through, if the infrastructure is still only at the planning stage, for near or more
distant future, which occurred in the amendment to the environmental protection act in Sep-
tember 2019, though so far no spectacular effects of this law were noticeable, maybe because
the burden of installing individual heating devices is borne by the replacement market.
76129 79758
65706 67657 66684 69599
74140
59065
62420
91516
105027
111550
130935
143770
3490 2115 2707 2311 3002 2115 1498
4482 3418 3396 3347 3547
4575 2570
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Number of appartments commisioned 2014 - 2020 [pcs.]
individual construction developers cooperative housing other

Fig. 3 Number of apartment constructions commenced in 2014-2020 (Source: GUS)
Between January and December 2020, construction of 223.8 thousand apartments was com-
menced, which means a 5,7% decrease compared to 2019, making it a significant drop in the
dynamics compared to the preceding year, when the increase came to 6.9%.
Fig. 4 Trend in the number of apartment constructions commenced in 2014-2020
by groups of investors (Source: GUS)
In terms of investor groups, the developers commenced construction of 130.2 thousand apart-
ments, giving them a 58.2 % share in the total number of apartment constructions started in
2020, compared to a 59% share at the end of 2019. In 2020, individual investors commenced
construction of 90.3 thousand apartment, giving this group a 40.3 % share in the total number
148122
168403 173932
205990
221907
237281
223842
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Appartments construction commenced( stand: End of
the year) in 2014 - 2020 [tsd.]
74368 78855 83580
94483
85304
90314 90309
69723
86498 85497
105401
131627
142022
130208
1362 1285 2187 2746 2312 2058 1638
2669 1765 2668 336
2664 2887
1687
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Tytuł wykresu

10
of new constructions, compared to a 38.1% share in 2018. This means a certain stabilization
with a tendency to increase the share of individual construction in the market. This information
is important, as most single-family buildings have individual heating devices. Less apartments
the construction of which commenced in 2020 than in 2019 were recorded in cooperative
construction, where construction of 1,638 was commenced, compared to 2,508 apartments
in 2019, which means a 20.4% drop. In other forms of construction (tenement, council), there
was a greater decrease of 58.4 % (construction of 1,687 apartments was started in 2020
compared to 2,887 apartments in 2019.
Fig. 5 Number of apartments for which permits were issued or applications were made
with construction design in 2014 – 2020 (Source: GUS)
In 2020, permits were issued or applications with a design were submitted for construction of
257,8,5 thousand apartments, i.e. 2.8 % more than in 2019.
156878
188798
211485
250218 257072
268483 275938
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Number of apartments for which permits were issued or
applications were made with construction design in
2014 - 2020 [pcs.]

Fig. 6 Trend in the number of apartments for which permits were issued or applications
were made in 2014 - 2020, by investor groups (Source: GUS)
Still, in 2020, the largest group of investors in this category of issued permits for apartment
construction was the developers, who obtained permits for construction of over 171.6 thou-
sand apartments, and individual investors, who obtained permits for construction of almost
101.6 thousand apartments. This means increases in the numbers of obtained construction
permits in these investor groups by 2.5 % and 5.0%, respectively, compared to 2019. In total,
within these construction forms, permissions were obtained or sites were reported with con-
struction design for 99 % of all the apartments (of which 61.9 % for developers and 36.8 %
for individual investors). In 2020 in co-operative construction there were 14.1 % fewer apart-
ments for the construction of which permits were issued or reports were made with construc-
tion design than in 2019, that is 1,171 apartments in 2020 compared to 1,364 apartments in
2019. Also, in tenement, social and council construction, there was a 46.6 % drop in the num-
ber of apartments for which permits were issued or applications were submitted with construc-
tion design, that is 1,586 apartments in 2019 compared to 2,966 apartments in 2019.
The results and the tendencies related to the number of commissioned apartments, apart-
ments under construction and the number of issued construction permits and applications in
this scope allow us to analyse the growth potential of the installation and heating market in
the years to come, in the so-called first installation segment. It can be assumed that the de-
velopers’ building cycle takes 18-24 months, whereas in the case of single-family construc-
tion, it usually takes about 2-3 years, sometimes longer. This means that the investments
started now will be fitted with heating devices at the final stages of construction, during finish-
ing works, i.e. in 2-3 years. Of course, the installation fittings are installed earlier, whereas the
heating devices themselves only at the end of the investment process as part of fitting works,
76134
87736
98574
114905
91485
96777 101591
77489
97248 106643
128484
159923
167346 171591
1351 1409 1750 1619 1732 1364 1171
1995 2588 4601 5210
3932 2996 1585
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Apartments for which permits were issued or aplications were
made in 2014 -2020

12
when, e.g.., it is necessary to heat the rooms during interior finishing works. Also, there is a
certain delay between the moment of receiving the building permit and finding the contractor,
who actually commences the construction works. This also gives a measurable potential of
demand for heating devices in a longer-term perspective. Hence, it is also worth examining
the data concerning building movement in various groups of investors, as their rate of perfor-
mance also shits the demand for heating devices into the future intended for new construction.
In the case of commissioned buildings, they are complete and constitute a basis for analysing
the actual and historic data. It is unknown whether this positive trend will prevail also in 2020.
In march, the COVID-19 pandemics caused a significant outflow of foreign workers, mostly
from Ukraine, who were a significant group of workers carrying out residential construction in
Poland. Admittedly, the results of the 1st quarter of 2020 were still quite good, but the epi-
demics seriously started only in March. If we add this to the safety-related restrictions, infec-
tion prevention, potential problems with deliveries of components from abroad, or labour
shortages on construction sites an in plants manufacturing building materials, the result of the
residential construction in 2020 is a great unknown.
The recent drop in the growth dynamics in the residential construction may certainly affect the
future situation in the installation and heating industry, if, following the budget cuts related to
fighting the COVID-19 and delays in the aid programmes sponsored from the reconstruction
and restoration funds, the authorities fail to consistently implement the programmes intended
to reduce low emissions. The increasing share and growths in the individual construction
group also mean an increase in the installation potential for individual heat sources in new
buildings, which may be suppressed in urban areas by the expansion of network heat, sup-
ported by the governmental and local administration authorities. So far, having an alternative
for new construction in the form of increasingly significant supplementing of heating device
sales potential in the form of device replacement, the installation and heating industry did not
feel in 2020 in a special way the growth decreasing trend in newly-built residential buildings.

3 Market growth in selected product groups in
Poland in 2020
The market of individual heating devices in Poland is one of the largest markets for this in-
dustry in Europe, and, after the dynamic expansion in 2018 and 2019, still has a significant
capacity for development, particularly in the scope of replacing old devices with new ones,
conforming to the ecoproject requirements and emitting much less pollutants into the atmos-
phere, or even emission-free.
Due to the specificity of the market of individual heating devices, as well as the capabilities of
the available output data, this report contains information about the development of the market
for heating devices up to 200 kW. In the section concerning heating devices, the report is
based on the SPIUG’s own analyses as well as on information collected directly from the
market, from fitters, manufactures and distributors. Just like in the previous edition, this report
does not include certain product groups of heating devices, due to lack of reliable output data
necessary to assess the market size and growth trends for these devices.
3.1 General market situation in 2020
Despite the pandemic which broke out in spring 2020, the year 2020 saw continuation of the
market and economic events from 2019, which had a positive impact on the development of
the installation and heating market. The economic situation favourable for investments in-
tended to improve the air quality at the local level and the mood in the industry translated into
sales increases, which occurred for most product groups in 2020.
It is hard to compare 2020 to the preceding years due to the impact of the coronavirus pan-
demics on the economy, both in Poland and in Europe. Nonetheless, the market growth trend
from the two previous years persevered. Despite the positive result achieved by the heating
device industry in 2019, there was a noticeable sales slump, particularly near the end of the
year, for most product groups of heating devices, where the results achieved in the 1st
quarter
indicated a sensational year. In some cases, the results are surprising, and it was hard to find
any logical explanations in the market. In the 2nd
and 4th
quarter of 2020, there were reports
of certain obstacles in the fitters’ contacts with end customers, caused by the fear of infection
during the first and second wave of the pandemic in Poland. Also, the situation in the residen-
tial construction, evolving due to the economic impact of the pandemic, certainly affected the
results achieved in the installation and heating industry in 2020.
Large sales increases for heating devices were recorded mostly thanks to programmes sub-
sidizing replacement of unclassified solid fuel boilers. The long-awaited changes to the rules
of the NFOŚiGW Priority Programme Clean Air, introduced in May 2020, made it possible to
accelerate the rate of the replacements, the most of which involved condensing gas boilers.

14
Fig. 7 Share of individual technologies in the replacement programme as part
of PP Czyste Powietrze (Clean Air Programm), between 2020.05.15 and
2021.01.31.
Fig. 8 Quantities of installed heat sources as part of PP Czyste Powietrze (Clean Air
Program) between 2020.05,15 and 2021.01.31.
When analyzing the growth of the heating devices in 2020, one could find that in most product
groups apart from heat pumps there were no such spectacular increases as in the preceding
20,37%
0,24%
16,66%
45,63%
0,10% 16,07%
0,93%
Share of indyvidual technologies in the replacement
programm Czyste Powietrze (Clean Air) between
15.05.2020 and 31.01.2021
Biomass boilers Connection to district heating networks
Heat pumps Gas boilers
Oil condensing boilerse Coal-fired boilers
Electric heating
7886
92
6450
17667
37
6221
361
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000
Kotły na biomasę
Podłączenie do sieci ciepłowniczej
Pompy ciepła
Kotły na gaz
Kotły olejowe kondensacyjne
Kotły na węgiel
Ogrzewanie elektryczne
Quantities of installed heat sources as part of PE Clean
Air between 15.05.2020 - 31.01.2021
Electric heating
Coal fired boilers
Oil condensing boilers
Gas boilers
Heat pumps
Connection to district heating net-
work
Biomass boilers

years, but there were also no significant drops apart from the product group including solid
fuel boilers fired by coal and coal derivatives, although also in this case the declining trend is
slowing down. The factor driving the demand tendency was a low cost of money (which in
combination with the growing inflation and the decreasing value of the PLN compared to other
currencies causes a loss when investing in financial instruments). Additionally, investing one’s
savings in real estate appears to be very safe, even if a lot of the newly-purchased apartments
are still unfinished, which is also caused by the reduced demand for the renting of apartments
in 2020, despite this investment model being consistently promoted by the developers. A
smaller migration of people caused by Covid-19 reduced the demand for apartment renting.
The dispersed market (single-family construction/renovations) in 2020 was restricted by lim-
ited availability of professionals providing construction and installation services. There was
still a noticeable increase in the prices of services and major problems with availability of
qualified staff in construction and installation in companies, which was hindered by the re-
strictions of movement for the workers from Ukraine and Belarus. This situation causes the
workers’ wages to grow and makes the general investors in building construction seek sav-
ings. In general, the development barrier is the labour market which offers a limited number
of qualified staff. And so, the staff is more and more often formed out of foreigners, who are
often unfamiliar with the new technologies. The labour cost was growing rapidly, along with
the increasing taxes and social insurance costs.
In 2020, the economic situation in the construction industry deteriorated somewhat, particu-
larly in the market of large developers. In the 2nd quarter the developers were particularly
unwilling to start scheduled constructions. Later during the year, the situation changed due to
an increased demand for apartment, caused by the citizens’ limited trust in banks as safe
places for their savings, and the fear of the growing inflation. There was also a reduced growth
dynamics for new constructions and issued construction permits, as well as reports of com-
menced constructions. In the case of construction, between January and December 2020 the
construction and installation production dropped by 2.2 % compared to 2019, when the growth
came to 2.6 %, which confirms continuation of the reduced growth dynamics, noticeable since
the beginning of the previous year, and a slow transition into a period of certain stabilization,
deepened by the effect of uncertainty caused by the coronavirus. The financial situation of the
companies, particularly installation ones, was relatively good.
Private investors became highly sensitive to the subsidy programmers, which often resulted
in putting the investments on hold in anticipation of a new subsidy programme, which was
particularly noticeable in the first half of the year, when everyone awaited the new regulations
of the Clean Air programme regarding replacement of the old coal-fired boilers. This also
applied to new solar collector systems, where the expiring regional aid programmes based on
the EU funds reduced the sales of these systems. The support programmes made the in-
vestors choose new modernization systems, as well as incentivized purchase and installation
of better and more expensive devices.
The information campaigns intended to reduce low emissions reinforced the interest in mod-
ern heating technologies, including RES in this product group, particularly heat pumps, where

16
a large promotional campaign noticeably encourages the use of this device at every level,
starting from the European Committee.
To sum up the general market trends: in 2020, the customers and the investors were willing
to invest because the cost of money was very low, which incentivized investments as a way
of investing capital in order to gain profit.
Luckily, on an annual basis, the lockdown did not directly affect the installation and heating
industry. The market had rather stabilized, albeit at different levels for various product groups.
The initial trend where the general growth scale for the turnover in the industry declined from
quarter to quarter prevailed, and the 4th quarter of 2020 saw the lowest growth result com-
pared to 2019. The Covid-19 pandemic was the reason why, despite continuously good re-
sults in the industry, the market situation is not what is used to be. Most companies experience
good sales results, although there are already first reports of declines, both from manufactur-
ers and from wholesale outlets, as well as fitters. In 2020, there was a noticeable difficulty in
planning, an increasing uncertainly of the market condition related to the spending power of
the customers and the pandemic-induced moods.
Increases in construction, intensive thermal modernization and very mild winter until the end
of the year enabled continuation of the installation works. Throughout the year, the sales
structure changed, with slowly-stabilizing market of the medium-capacity boilers, and the mar-
ket for boilers in excess of 300 kW showed minor drops, whereas heat pumps and low-ca-
pacity boilers recorded significant increases, particularly in the case of air heat pumps. The
pandemic practically halted investments in the modernization of guesthouses and hotels, and
companies from outside the hotel industry significantly reduced their investments. The pan-
demic affected installation companies providing replacement of indoor systems. Many invest-
ments never came to fruition out of fear of viral infection. Fitters dealing with small systems
are highly sought-after and have their working schedules full for the entire 2021.
The situation was not as good in companies dealing with outdoor system construction and
modernization. Also, the predicted wave of price increases for semi-finished goods or raw
materials, such as steel pipes, metal sheet, plastic pellets, which inflated the costs of radiators
and fittings, made the general contractors and developers seek savings outside the contrac-
tual terms of payment. As a result, the savings often involved despecifying the systems, or
using cheaper material substitutes, which may reduce the failure-free service life later on. In
the case of individual customers, the scale of this phenomenon was much smaller, as these
investors build for themselves and are vehement to change the devices they planned before-
hand. Just like in the last three years, the core of the heating market growth was still the
market of replacing old devices with new ones, as part of eliminating low emission at the local
level. The significance of the support initiatives for heating device replacement is noticeably
growing, after the NFOSIGW Clean Air Programme was improved in May. The EU pro-
grammes, managed by the local governments, were still very important for the replacement
market. A negative side effect of the subsidy programmes is that the private investors have
become highly sensitive to the subsidy programmes. This is particularly visible in the case of

solar collectors and biomass boilers, but also increasingly noticeable in the case of heat
pumps, which so far developed steadily and consistently without any spectacular subsidy pro-
grammes, as was the case in the aforesaid product groups, which is currently a driving force
for the sales development in this product group.
From the perspective of boiler or heat pump manufacturers, the development perspectives
are good and nothing indicates a regress of sales in the following year and the years to come,
unless the labour market tanks and the potential customers for new systems and moderniza-
tions disappear. Yet, one should take into account that in 2021 many investments will not
commence due to issues with the procedure and the remote work mode of the officials, which
means a very long time of waiting for building permits to be issued, and because the investors
are unwilling to make investments.
The reports coming from the high capacity market were confirmed. There are opinions that
orders for high-capacity devices are withheld, which would indicate a temporal shift of these
orders.
The situation with payments looks quite interesting. Towards the end of the year, we had a
good situation in the installation and construction industry, with the companies being prudent
and good at managing their profits from the last years of the prosperous economy.
To sum up: In general, it can be concluded that in 2020 the installation and heating market
still has a growing tendency, although this growth was far less dynamic than in the preceding
year.
According to the details provided in the SPIUG report concerning online sales of heating de-
vices, in 2020 the turnover for this distribution channel grew by over 60%, yet the share of the
online market in the total sales of heating devices is still under 10%.
There was also a noticeable increase in the customers’ awareness when buying heating de-
vices. So far, there were no noticeable problems generated by the amendment of the Envi-
ronmental Protection Act, which grants preferential treatment to network heat in new build-
ings, although first such signals arrived towards the end of 2019, and in 2020, just to stay out
of trouble, an increasing number of designers started to claim that their new buildings are
connected to the heating network, even if the possibility of such a connection was not speci-
fied in the defined framework, making it necessary to supplement the documentation already
at the construction stage. It was probably because of this lack of connection capabilities and
a high share of the replacement market in the sales that the negative results are still not visible
to the same degree as they were in the past, when a similar regulation with a more limited
scope was introduced, but there are already first signals of the designers’ trouble to timely
obtain the local network operator’s declaration regarding the possibility of connecting a build-
ing. In general, it can be concluded that in 2019 the installation and heating market still has a
growing tendency, although this growth was far less dynamic than in the preceding year.

18
3.2 Selected product groups in Poland in 2020
With certain exceptions, the year 2020 was positive regarding sales in the main product
groups of heating devices and fitting’s elements. One could notice a further increase in the
sales of condensing gas boiler and a significant sales growth in the heat pump product group.
In the case of low-temperature conventional wall-hung gas boilers, the sales decrease in 2020
was about 12% In the case of wall-hung condensing boilers, the increase achieved in 2020
came to 11%, which, with reference to the high base of reference in 2019, is a very good
result. This sales volume could be explained by very good sales results for this product group
throughout 2020. In other product groups, there was also a consistently high interest in air
heat pumps, where the sales growth dynamics was over 50% for non-reverse pumps, and for
reverse air pumps, particularly monoblock, the growth was over twofold. The general interest
in using RES for heating is growing too. Throughout the year, there was a reduction in the
downward dynamics of the solar collector group, caused by a specific market structure caused
by the dependency on the support programmes, which came to 44%, but the point of refer-
ence was still 2019, when the sales were record-breaking. Manufacturers of solid fuel boilers
also boasted two-digit increases between 10 and 25%, thanks to increased sales of pellet
boilers, as the coal-fired boilers kept plummeting, although not as spectacularly as before.
The sales trends in 2020 were, with certain exceptions, similar to the downward/upward
trends in 2019, in terms of sales for practically most of the product groups for heating devices
and fittings. The increases concerned mostly modern heating devices, meeting the require-
ments of eco-design and low emissions. Before making decisions, the customers compare
the components, technical parameter and the functionalities offered by the devices. This
makes the condensing boiler market grow very dynamically. There is still a noticeable growth
of interest in photovoltaics as a technology for acquiring energy for prosumer purposes, in-
cluding electric energy supply for heating devices in hybrid systems, but also strictly for heat-
ing purposes.

Product group
Trend
2020/2019
Trend 2019/
2018
Wall-hung gas boilers in total +10% +8%
Wall-hung condensing gas boilers +11% +15%
low-temperature wall-hung gas boilers -12% -43%
Floor standing gas boilers in total +2% +17%
Floor standing condensing gas boilers +6% +18%
Floor standing conventional gas boilers -51% -13%
Gas HUW flow-through heaters +9% -11%
Floor standing oil boilers in total -29% -19%
Condensing floor standing oil boilers -16% -8%
Conventional oil standing oil boilers -47% -31%
Solid fuel boilers No data No data
Solar collectors -44% -15%
Heat pumps: +99% +34%
Tanks and buffers -2% +15%
Table 3. Changes to sales in individual product groups in 2020 vs. 2019
Another phenomenon visible in the installation and heating market at the beginning of 2020
was to withhold purchase decisions, particularly in the case of biomass boilers, until the rules
of the “Clean Air” programme are changed and information meetings in communes are held.
This was also noticeable in the heat pump segment.
Anti-smog campaigns, which include, e.g., replacement of old devices with new ones, have
significantly increased the share of the device replacement market in the entire sales struc-
ture, which, according to estimates, in 2020 remained at about 65-70 % share of the entire
sales volume, which had a significant impact on the heating device sales results in 2020.
There was also a noticeable, continued increase in the importance of the Internet as a tool for
finding technical and commercial information in the installation and heating industry, as well
as for sales, which nevertheless had no significant impact on the total sales volume in 2020.
The SPIUG report published in 2021, regarding online sales of heating devices, shows that
in 2020 there was a further increase in the popularity of this sales channel by over 64%, but
compared to the overall sales volume, this is still rather a media activity, with a total sales
share much under 10 %. Between January and September 2020 the sales value for heating
devices was 64% higher than in 2019, and for utility hot water heating devices - 108% higher.
In terms of quantity, the number of heating devices sold online was 66% higher than in 2019,
for water heating devices this was 103% more.
It is also worth to note the percentage distribution of individual devices in the online sales.

20
Fig. 9 Sales of heating devices by fuel type/medium in 2020
(source: SPIUG study)
Judging by the auction titles, 23% of all the sales concerned gas boilers. Wood, pellet, coal,
coal dust or eco-pea boilers constituted 40% of the sales.
Compared to the previous year, there was a definite rise in the number of devices sold in the
solar collector/photovoltaics category. They made 31% of the sales. In the previous year, this
share was 12%. Yet, according to the market trends, this increase can mostly be attributed to
the sales of photovoltaic panels.
There was also a noticeable increase in the importance of the Internet as a tool for finding
technical and commercial information in the installation and heating industry.
More information about the sales of heating devices and hot utility water heaters can be found
in a report published on www.spiug.pl.
3.2.1 Wall-hung gas boilers
Since 2016, the market of wall-hung gas boilers has been practically dominated by condens-
ing boilers. In 2020 one could observe continued, dynamic sales growth for wall-hung gas
boilers in Poland, caused by the aforementioned factors, although these increases, while still
double-digit, did not have the same high dynamics as in the preceding year. The general
increase in the sales of wall-hung gas boiler kept decreasing throughout 2020. A certain sur-
prise was an increase in the sales of conventional boilers in the last quarter of 2020. In the
group of wall-hung boilers in general, the growth was about 10 % for the entire year, compared
to 2019.
6%
31%
23%
40%
Pompa Ciepła
Kolektor słoneczny /
Fotowoltaika
Gaz
drewno / pellet /
węgiel / miał
/ekogroszek
Heat pump
Solar collector/ photovoltaic
Gas
Wood/pellet/coal/pea coal

Fig. 10 Sales of wall-hung gas boilers in 2011 – 2020
(Source: SPIUG study)
Fig. 11 Sales of wall-hung gas boilers in 2014 – 2020 - trend
3.2.2 Low temperature conventional wall-hung gas boilers
After large decreases in the last two years and a certain stabilization near the end of 2018, in
2019 the sales of these devices plummeted. A certain surprise occurred in the 4th quarter of
2020, at about 22% compared to the 4th
quarter of 2019. There are no clear information re-
garding the cause of this sudden increase for suspended boilers. It can only be explained by
a sudden need to replace the conventional gas boilers installed in the 90s in housing cooper-
atives, which had to spend their renovation budgets by the end of the year. This choice was
175000
164000 169500 165500
184300
172000
225000
282000
304500
333290
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Wall-hung gas boilers (total) [pcs.]
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Wall-hung gas boilers - trend

22
certainly dictated by funds insufficient to modernize the systems by replacing the conventional
devices with condensing ones. Therefore, this market segment should be considered niche
and consistently dying out. The entire 2020 in this product group ended with a decrease of
about 12%.
Fig. 12 Sales of conventional wall-hung gas boilers in 2014 – 2019
Fig. 13 Sales of conventional wall-hung gas boilers in 2014 – 2020
- trend (Source: SPIUG study)
108600
97600 100500
93200
107100
34400 35000 34700
19700 17430
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Conventional wall-hung gas boilers[pcs.]
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Low-temperature conventional wall-hung gas
boilers- trend

3.2.3 Wall-hung condensing gas boilers
In 2020, there is still a trend for dynamic sales increase in this group of devices. Also among
condensing boilers, there is a noticeable trend to find the cheapest boiler. The market of sus-
pended gas boilers has been virtually dominated by these devices. Sales increases in the
entire group of condensing suspended boilers throughout 2020 of about 11%. The signifi-
cance of semi-condensing boilers, treated briefly as cheaper alternatives for typical condens-
ing boilers, while meeting the requirements of ecoproject, is diminishing, with sales drop of
about 90% which shows that this episode among heating devices is at its end. Condensing
gas boilers successfully consolidated their position in the replacement market, where they are
installed in the place of old, ineffective and polluting heating devices.
Fig. 14 Sales of condensing wall-hung gas boilers in 2014 – 2020
66400 66400 69000 72300 77200
137600
190000
246800
284800
315550
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Condensing wall-hung gas boilers[pcs.]

24
Fig. 15 Sales of condensing wall-hung gas boilers in 2014 -2020
3.3 Floor standing boilers (gas and oil)
Due to their nature, floor standing boilers can be classified as traditional devices, the installa-
tion of which requires a relatively large space, which is why over the years the market potential
for these devices has been in decline, particularly in the scope of gas and oil boilers. Currently,
devices of this type are installed mainly in systems providing heat for public buildings, guest-
houses, hotels, restaurants or multi-family buildings. Due to their bulk, they are not often used
to heat single-family houses. Market potential drops in the group of solid fuel boilers were
rather connected with switching to other heating devices, of no-emission or with limited low
emission, and connections to municipal central heating systems.
3.3.1 Floor standing gas boilers
In the group of condensing floor standing gas boilers, just like in other boiler groups, quite
significant increases were recorded again, coming to about 6% in the entire 2020.. For low-
capacity boilers, this growth was 21% for boilers without a tank, and 3% for the so-called
“refrigerators”, that is boilers with integrated tank, called so because of their appearance, and
a noticeable 19% increase for high-capacity boilers (over 50 kW). The sales dropped by over
51 % for conventional floor standing gas boilers. Floor standing boilers are less popular, but
due to their dimensions, the market potential for this group of heating devices is smaller. Low
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Condensing wall-hung gas boilers- trend

hydraulic resistances of these solutions eliminate the need of a coupling and make them suit-
able for surface heating.
Fig. 16 Sales of floor standing gas boilers in 2014 – 2020
Fig. 17 Sales of floor standing gas boilers in 2014 – 2020 - trend
9000
6900 6500
6000 6100
7000
8200
9800
11420
12045
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Floor standing gas boilers -total [pcs.]
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Floor standing gas boilers -trend

26
3.3.2 Floor standing condensing gas boilers
This product group still demonstrates an upward trend, although the growth dynamics in 2020
was lower, despite the renewed interest in these devices. Due to their bulk, they are seldom
installed in apartments, and more common on business premises, such as restaurants or
guest houses, which been adversely affected by the pandemic In 2020, the general growth in
this product group was about 6%.
Fig. 18 Sales of floor standing condensing gas boilers in 2014 – 2019
Fig. 19 Sales of floor standing condensing gas boilers in 2014 – 2020
trend (Source: SPIUG study)
6200
5100
4600 4400
4900
6600
7700
9200
10900
11715
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Floor standing condensing gas boilers [pcs.]
6200
5100
4600 4400
4900
6600
7700
9200
10900
11715
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Floor standing condensing gas boilers [pcs.]

3.3.3 Floor standing low-temperature conventional gas boilers
The market trend in this product group is similar to the suspended conventional boilers. The
small number of these boilers still being sold comes solely from the replacement market,
where condensing boilers cannot be installed for technical reasons. In the case of floor-stand-
ing conventional boilers, the sales decreased by 51 %.
Fig. 20 Sales of floor standing low temperature conventional gas boilers in 2014 – 2020
Fig. 21 Sales of floor standing conventional gas boilers in 2014 – 2019
trend (Source: SPIUG study)
2800
1800 1900
1600
1200
400 500 600 520
364
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Floor standing low temperature conventional gas
boilers[pcs.]
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Floor standing low temperature conventional gas
boilers- trend

28
3.3.4 High-power floor standing gas boilers (over 50 kW)
In 2019, the situation the product group of high-power boilers, i.e. over 50kW, was stable, with
a slightly downward trend. In this group, the condensing boilers are absolutely dominant. The
market potential difference between condensing and conventional boilers is an order of mag-
nitude. It is a specific, niche product group, intended for heating public and non-residential
buildings, used in residential buildings in exceptional cases only, when there is no possibility
of connecting to the municipal central heating system, while connection to the gas supply
system is available. In view of the current governmental preference for CH networks, one may
expect the sales market of these devices to shrink. The experience of 2020 showed that the
companies that manage heating networks may have trouble performing expansive actions
consisting in extension of the existing heat transfer networks and there may be no alternative
other than installation of a high-capacity heating boiler.
Fig. 22 Sales of high-capacity gas boilers in 2017 – 2020
The 4% decrease in the sales of condensing boilers and the 14% drop for the conventional
high-capacity gas boilers are the result of the network heat expansion, which is growing in the
areas where high-power boilers are usually used. These are mostly multifamily buildings and
public buildings, built in urbanized areas where the connection to a CH network is easier. For
this reason, apart from few exceptions where there are no technical possibilities, but a gas
connection is available, the sales are oriented mostly at modernization of the existing sys-
tems. In 2020, this market situation was exacerbated by the crisis in the hotel and carting
industry, which are the traditional customers for these heating devices. Due to financial insta-
bility in these industries, the scheduled modernizations were postponed. In the condensing
high-capacity boilers group, the suspended boilers hold about. 95% of the share, which in-
creased by additional 10% compared to 2019. The following charts show the trend in the high-
power boiler sales for condensing and conventional devices.
7140
8180
7840
7660
6600
6800
7000
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
2017 2018 2019 2020
High-capacity gas boilers (above 50 kW) -total

.
Fig. 23 Sales of high-capacity condensing gas boilers in 2017 – 2020
Fig. 24 Sales of high-capacity conventional low-temperature gas boilers in 2017 – 2020
3.3.5 Floor standing oil boilers
In Poland, oil boilers are not as popular as in the Western Europe. This results from a different
structure of fuels used for heating. In Poland, fuel oil was traditionally perceived as an expen-
sive heating fuel, which several years ago caused a significant reduction of the market poten-
tial. In 2020, the oil boiler group saw another sales decrease of about 29%. Whereas the sales
6700
7700
7400
7320
6200
6400
6600
6800
7000
7200
7400
7600
7800
2017 2018 2019 2020
High-capacity condensing gas boilers
(above 50 kW) [pcs.]
440
480
440
340
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2017 2018 2019 2020
High-capacity low- temperature gas boilers
(above 50 kW) [pcs.]

30
drop for conventional boilers was 47%, and for condensing boilers it was 16%. This is a
strange situation in the oil boiler market, where currently the fuel oil is cheaper then ever,
making the cost comparable to gas heating. A similar trend of departure from heating with fuel
oil can also be observed in other European countries, which may show that the tendency to
abandon this type of heating is accelerating. This situation fails to motivate to replace the
boilers, or to exchange them for heat pumps and other RES, although one may assume that
the current users of oil boilers, which have never been cheap, when modernizing tend to
choose heat pumps as an alternative for oil heating. In the case of conventional oil boilers,
the drops were higher than for the condensing boilers, which seems natural with the
ecodesign requirements in place. The oil boiler market in Poland is more and more dominated
by condensing boilers, with a constant declining share trend in the conventional boiler group.
One of the reasons behind lower interest in the oil boilers, apart from the fuel costs, just like
in the previous years, is the issue of the fuel quality and lack of tradition for this type of instal-
lations in Poland. As the fuel available in Poland is highly sulphated, some of the manufactur-
ers refuse to give warranty for these devices, particularly those with higher output.
Just like in the case of the floor standing gas boilers, there is currently no significant market
potential for selling devices of this type, although much more gas devices are purchased..
Fig. 25 Sales of floor standing oil boilers in 2014 – 2020
4200
2200
1500 1500 1500
1700 1800
1550
1250
880
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Floor standing oil boilers[pcs.]

Fig. 26 Sales of floor standing oil boilers in 2014 – 2020 - trend
Based on the chart of sales trends for oil boilers, one may assume that after a drastic plummet
of the sales in 2011-2013, and a certain stabilization in 2017, the market has been in a con-
stant downward trend since 2018.
Fig. 27 Sales of floor standing condensing oil boilers in 2014 – 2019
In the condensing oil boilers group, the sales drops in 2019 were slightly higher than in 2018
and came to about 16 %. Observing the trend in the market potential changes for condensing
oil boilers, it is easy to notice that implementation of the eco-design requirements in 2015
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Floor standing oil boilers- trend
460
280
250
200
350
630
790 780
720
600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Floor standing condensing oil boilers[pcs.]

32
caused an increased interest in the purchase of condensing oil boilers. After a moment of
stability in 2017 there has been a constant downwards trend, while in other groups the sales
volumes grew considerably. This means that some of the replaced devices were substituted
by other heating technologies, probably heat pumps.
Fig. 28 Sales of floor standing condensing oil boilers in 2014 – 2020
In the case of conventional oil boilers, the drops were higher than for the condensing boilers,
which seems natural with the ecodesign requirements in place. The oil boiler market in Poland
shows an increasing share of condensing boilers, which, in the total number of oil boilers,
achieved about 68%, compared to a 32% share of conventional boilers, the share of which
has been consistently on the decline since 2014.
.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Floor standing condensing oil boilers- trend

Fig. 29 Sales of floor standing low-temperature conventional oil boilers in 2014 – 2020
Fig. 30 Sales of floor standing low-temperature conventional oil boilers in 2014 – 2020
3.4 Solid fuel boilers
In 2020, the interest in purchasing solid fuel boilers was once again noticeably reduced,
mostly due to the significant drop in the popularity of boilers burned with coal and its deriva-
tives although this decline was not as steep as in the preceding years. The downward sales
trend continued throughout 2019, with a 10 or even 30% sales drops year by year, according
to the information received from the market. Nonetheless, some of the manufacturers
3740
1920
1250 1300
1150 1070 1010
770
530
280
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Floor standing low-temerature conventional oil
boilers[pcs.]
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Floor standing low-temperature conventional oil
boilers- trend

34
expressed an opinion that the market has stabilized, or even increased. These discrepancies
are difficult to verify with hard numbers, due to lack of reliable market surveys for this group
of boilers. On the other hand, the opinion about tendencies of market changes is highly de-
pendent on the product portfolio of the companies. Those manufacturers who redirected their
production to biomass boilers, particularly pellet-fired, can even boast increases of 20%, in
some cases. Some of the manufacturers ceased production of coal-fired boilers, or reduced
it considerably, while expanding their portfolios with, for instance, heat pumps. Hence the
noticeable discrepancies between the opinions of fitters and distributors, who report signifi-
cant sales drops for solid fuel boilers as a whole, and those of the manufacturers who changed
their product offer.
Towards the end of 2020, there was a noticeable rise in the popularity of solid fuel heating
boilers. Yet, the interest in coal-fired boilers continued to decrease, with a tendency for stabi-
lization or even minor increases in the case of modern eco-pea boilers. This can be explained
by disappearance of certain manufacturers from the market, and the void being filled by oth-
ers, who noticed this trend as a result of reduced competition. In the case of biomass boilers,
2020 ended well, with two-digit increases of about 15 % up to more than 20%. Since the
beginning of 2020, there was a further increase in the popularity of automatic pellet boilers,
which significantly increased their market share. At the end of 2020, this share is estimated
at over 60%. Among the biomass boilers, the pellet boilers came out ahead, while the sales
of other biomass boilers are rather marginal. This is caused by the availability of fuel in the
market. Pellet is used commonly, but for instance in the case of woodchips, the available fuel
is almost completely intercepted by professional heat and power stations. At the same time,
there is a noticeable rise in the popularity of boilers which gasified wood pieces, as using coal
us now impossible. Hence the significantly lower interest in eco-pea boilers. Opinions col-
lected from the market indicate a diminishing interest in boilers fired with various waste in
households. A certain phenomenon is that certain manufacturers switch to making other prod-
ucts, not necessarily related to heating devices. One can assume that the share of the bio-
mass boilers since the beginning of 2020 is a definite majority in the total volume of all the
solid fuel boilers. The amendments made to the Clean Air programme in May affected the
growing sales of the pellet boilers after the period of waiting throughout 2020. The market
potential assessment may seem significantly understated due to sales of the unclassified boil-
ers in the so-called grey area, outside any statistics or market monitoring. At the same time,
there is still no reliable system in place for monitoring the market potential for this group of
devices, similar to the well-performing panel encompassing other heating devices.
In 2020, the biomass boilers constituted 65% - 70% of all the boiler purchases, which confirms
the continued interest in this type of fuel – in 2017, they constituted only about 16-20% of the
entire sales volume. For comparison, in 2018 this percentage was about 35-40%. The regress
and decline of interest in the solid fuel boilers as a whole is the consequence of both regional
restrictions on their installation, and an increase in the average prices of these devices,
caused by the need to adopt them to the currently applicable devices. In the case of manually-
charged boilers, it can be assumed that after the significant drops in 2019, the sales volume

plummeted even further, yet not as drastically as in 2019, when the estimated decrease in
this product group came to 80%, at least in the official sales. Numerous manufacturers dis-
continued the sales of these devices and, in their opinion, box-type coal boilers are no longer
purchased at all, and are made only sporadically, to order, hence their supply in the so-called
grey distribution.
Fig. 31 Sales of solid fuel boilers in 2014 – 2020
Fig. 32 Sales of solid fuel boilers in 2014 – 2020 - trend
200000
190000
180000 180000
170000
160000 160000
145000
125000 120000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Solid fuel boilers[pcs.]
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Solid fuel boilers- trend [pcs.]

36
3.5 Heat pumps
In 2020, just like in the preceding year, there was a visible increase in the popularity of mod-
ern, advanced, electrical heating devices, such as heat pumps and modern flow-through boil-
ers. This also applies to electric hot utility water heaters, both tankless and storage. Also, in
2020 there was a lot of talk about the plans to electrify heating in the future based on EU
strategies and plans. Heat pumps are indicated as the primary solution to achieve this goal.
The Green Deal strategies prepared in the EU, as well as very intense promotion built on this
basis, effectively increased the popularity of this technology, also in the Polish market of heat-
ing devices.
As a result, in 2020, just like a year before, heat pumps recorded the most spectacular sales
increase. In 2020, heat pumps in total had a significant rise in sales, which, in total, are esti-
mated at 52%, whereas the sales increase for central heating pumps reached 77%. Tradition-
ally, the highest increases were recorded for air pumps, particularly in the air-water pump
group, with over 42 thousand sold, which provided an increase of 108%, and in certain groups
and items – almost twofold, whereas other groups stabilized or the growth was only by several
per cent. There was a surprising decrease in the popularity of hot utility water pumps, which
suffered a substantial decline compared to the preceding year. In 2020, ground pumps rec-
orded a noticeable drop over ten per cent. The stable growth tendency in the heat pump
group is a result of a consistent information and promotion policy, conducted both in Poland
and in other EU countries. There is also a growing interest in heat pumps as devices working
in hybrid systems with gas heating boilers or solar collectors as well as PV as the power
source, which is more and more frequently used in systems with heat pumps. In the case of
hybrid systems of heat pumps and gas boilers, this growth was over twofold.
Heat pump fitters have long been loaded down with work and in 2020 it was not difficult to
commission works which were not arranged later. There are not many such installers, and
the market is growing. New installers of heat pumps must be trained, but their numbers grow
slower than the market. The number of heat pump manufacturers in the market is growing
too, mainly by adjustment or extension of the product portfolio by the current manufacturers
of solid fuel boilers, whose market has been shrinking for the last few years and they seek
alternative solutions to continue their business activity.

Fig. 33 Sales of heat pumps in general between 2011 and 2020. The data include air-
water, saline-water, direct ground evaporation/water and air-water HUW-only pumps.
(Source: SPIUG study based on PORT PC data)
Fig. 34 Sales of heat pumps in total in 2014 – 2020 – trend (Source:
(Source: SPIUG study based on PORT PC data)
3.6 Electric heating
In 2020, the popularity of modern, electrical heating devices increased again. This also ap-
plies to electric hot utility water heaters, both tankless and storage, but in this case the
growths were closer to market stabilization.
10320
12250
15250 15930
18190 19090
22930
26230
37180
56400
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Heat pumps without air conditioners, air pumps
[pcs]
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Heat pumps- trend

38
The current increase in the popularity of electricity as heat source is affected by several fac-
tors, such as: more energy efficient houses with low demand for heating energy, growing
awareness of the investors, popularization of photovoltaics and using this source of electric
energy for heating purposes, both for supplying electrical heating systems (flow0-through boil-
ers, heating mats, local room heating, etc., search for a comfortable heating form, e.g. for
weekend or holiday homes, limited possibilities of converting the building systems, starting
investment capacity. There is also a noticeable trend for dual heating, i.e. with two heat
sources, one of which is an electric boiler. More and more investors decide to build „near-zero
energy”houses.
For houses with useable surface area >100m2 (the most often built in Poland), the most ben-
eficial solution is a PV installation in a hybrid system with a heat pump, which seems the most
favourable in terms of investment, which has a direct impact on the dynamic sales growth in
the pump market. For smaller houses, with surface area <100m2, and those meeting the
condition of heating energy consumption <40kW/m2/year (the share of these buildings is
growing fast) – it seems more economical to invest in a slightly larger PV installation and
direct heating with electrical devices (heating cables, heating film or electric boiler).
In the electrical heating device market, one may also observe an increasing diversification of
the heat sources, which gives the customer an expanding freedom of choice. In terms of
value, the leading electrical heating devices are certainly heat pumps, electrical central heat-
ing and hot utility water boilers utilizing resistance and electromagnetic technology, convec-
tion and oil electrical heating as well as electric and water-electric bathroom radiators, as well
as solar collectors sets with accumulation tanks. Further on, there is floor and surface heating
(heating cables and increasingly popular heating films), followed lastly by accumulation stoves
and decorative heaters, usually made of stone, which fulfil a similar function. According to the
information collected, the customers buy quite a lot of small heating devices with a fan, but
we had no access or there are no reliable data regarding this method of heating, and these
devices cannot be considered fixed elements of the building heating system. Electrical heat-
ing has quite a new meaning for households, it is becoming more accessible and easy to
install in buildings. The market is open to various products, there are various electrical heating
solutions available. Such modern devices include resistance or induction boilers, which en-
compass up to 5% of the electrical boiler market, or electromagnetic heating with heat recu-
peration. Electrical heating usually involves heat accumulation, which is why it is so important
to fit every system with accumulation tanks, which can store the heat and release it as and
when necessary. Tankless boilers fulfil the same function as gas heating boilers.
The electrical heating market is growing year by year, thanks to the development of alternative
power sources, and improving thermal insulation of the buildings, which significantly reduces
the ongoing operating costs, which used to be a traditional barrier for this type of heating.
In 2020, the market growth was higher than previously estimated, coming to 70 - 80%. The
growth trend which has been noticeable for the last several years is affected by several other

factors, such as anti-smog subsidies in communes, and the possibility of using cheap elec-
tricity tariffs thanks to a combination with a heat accumulation buffer. One of the solutions
which could positively affect the development of electrical heating would be to develop the
idea of houses without bills, based on installation of a hybrid heating device and a prosumer
installation for generating electricity based on the RES, that is photovoltaics and small wind
turbines.
It is estimated that in 2020, about 13 thousand electric flow-through heating boilers, with an
80% market growth. In the case of flow-through water heaters, the market maintained the
sales volume from 2019, which came to about 200 thousand pieces in the case of low capacity
(under 9 kW) and 47 thousand pieces with capacity over 9 kW. In 2021, it is planned to sup-
plement the survey with these product groups, providing an opportunity to verify the estimated
data. There is also a noticeable, growing interest in electric heating mats, which nevertheless
still remain a niche product.
Fig. 35 Electrical heating boilers – estimated data for 2011 -2020
3900 4000 4100 4200 4300
5000
5800
6800
8000
13000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Electrical heating boilers-estimated data for 2020
[pcs.]

40
Fig. 36 Electrical heating boilers – estimated data for 2011 - 2020 – Trend
3.7 Solar collectors
In 2020 in the solar collector group a considerable drop in the sales of these systems occurred
which throughout the year came to 44%, which is the consequence of an unstable market
structure based mostly on communal tenders grounded on EU funds. Nonetheless, the sales
in absolute numbers were still quite high. Despite these drops, in the 4th quarter of 2020 the
market again started sending positive signals about increased sales of solar collectors via
retail, but these values are still too low to talk about a safe and stable market for these sys-
tems. This result can indicate a saturation of the tender market for this type of installations.
Most sales concerned flat collectors, while in the vacuum collector group, the share in the
sales is at 2%. This result is a consequence of the market structure in this product group,
based on implementation of investments based on tenders announced in 2019 and 2018.
Programmes and tenders for solar collectors often take place in communes which already
have past experiences with the installation of this type and are the result of the good opinions
of the users of solar collector installations or their neighbours. The contracts awarded in the
preceding years are performed systematically and gradually expire. Despite certain positive
symptoms in retail, there is still no base in this distribution segment which would guarantee
market stability, at least to a certain extent. There are absolutely no promotional and infor-
mation campaigns supporting this technology as a totally emission free, with low operating
costs. For a long time there has been no education on the capabilities of solar collector sys-
tems. The support programmes organized in the past had a negative effect of imprinting in
the end users’ minds that the solar collector installations are only possible with subsidies from
the support programmes, which is a great burden on the sales of this heating technology. Still,
despite noticeable interest in the expansion of using solar collector systems to supply hot
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Electrical heating boilers-estimated data for
2020-trend

water process for heat in the industry, in Poland there are no visible tendencies to change the
scope of using solar collectors beyond HUW preparation, as is now happening in other EU
countries. Again, there is a growing interest in solutions based on PVT hybrid collectors, and
the idea of using solar collectors as an element of heat acquisition for heating networks is
discussed in Poland more and more seriously. In residential buildings with insufficient insula-
tion, solar collectors can still provide heat to the residents in hybrid systems with gas boilers
and heat storages, reducing the costs of the fuel gas during warmer periods of autumn and
winter, and completely eliminating gas consumption in spring and summer.
Glassless Flat Vacuum Glass in total TOTAL
2020 – Surface of newly-installed
collectors (m2)
0 159 370 1 830 161 200 161 200
collectors (m2)
0 282 160 5 030 287 190 287 190
Percentage change 0 -44% -63% -44% -44%
Total surface of working collec-
tors (m2) at the end of 2020 0 2 509 330 497 460 3 006 690 3 006 690
Total surface of working collec-
tors (m2) at the end of 2019
0 2 349 860 495 630 2 845 490 2 845 490
Table 4 Development of the solar collector market in Poland in 2020 by collector type
The result achieved in 2019 still makes Poland one of the leading countries installing these
systems in Europe, holding the third place after Germany, where in 2019 a bit over 550 thou-
sand m2 of solar collectors were sold, and after Greece.
Swimming pool
water heating
HUW prepara-
tion
Combined
HUW and CH
systems
Large systems
(50m²< X < 500 m²)
Very large
systems (over
500m²)
collectors (%)
3 74 19 2 2
collectors (%)
2 74 9 13 2
Table 5 Development of the solar collector market in Poland in 2017 by system type in
[%] of installed surface (Source: SPIUG study)
The estimates collected from the market concerning the percentage share of individual types
of solar collector systems clearly show that in 2020 there was still no revolution in the

42
approach to using solar collectors for heating in Poland, although the share of the systems
supporting heating in buildings increased.
In 2020, the location structure of newly-installed collectors did not change as well.
There is still a demand for solar systems in modernized systems in the buildings, as
well as a certain increase in the share of the industry as the customer of solar collec-
tors. Local heating networks are becoming increasingly interested in utilizing solar
heat in order to reduce the CO2 emission for their systems in the near future. Currently
there are more than ten such projects in Poland. Additionally, in 2020 the first systems
utilizing hybrid PVT collectors were installed in public buildings.
Fig. 37 Sales of solar collectors in total in 2014 – 2020
105000
194000
174000
223000
245000
115400 111100
310000
287190
161200
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Solar collectors [m²]

Fig. 38 Sales of solar collectors in total in 2014 – 2019 – trend (Source: SPIUG study)
3.8 Radiators and other installation elements
In the radiator group. 2020 was slightly worse than 2019 thanks to a strong 4th quarter, which
recorded a 2% drop compared to Q4 2019, but was much stronger in terms of sales compared
to other quarters of 2020. For steel radiators, the drops were 3-4%. In particular, November
and December saw high increases, caused mostly by purchase of radiators for stock in view
of a significant, anticipated price increase for these products, caused by about 40% price
increase for steel in the global markets. Moreover, numerous contracting companies wanted
to complete / close projects “rolled up” from the preceding months in 2020. The year 2020
ended with a surprisingly high, abrupt price increase for cold-rolled plate (main raw material
for panel radiators), with a further upward trend in 2021. At the same time, there were notice-
able limitations in the availability of this material, which was, and may still be, the factor driving
the above-standard price increases for these products.
Surface heating grew steadily in all the quarters of 2020. One can observe a consistently
consolidating trend for an increased market share of the surface heating, where in 2020 the
market stabilized at the level from the preceding year. Also, sales of various components of
heating systems, such as pipes, couplings, dividers, etc. in many cases recorded certain fluc-
tuations of the sales volume, which on average resulted in several to more than ten per cent
drops for certain diameters, and over 20% growth for other components. To sum up, 2020
saw a certain market stabilization, with sales increases or drops of 2-5 % depending on the
product group, and a minor increase of 0-2% for other elements of heating systems.
In 2020, the group of tanks and buffers was stable, with a minor 2% drop compared to 2019.
The largest drop took place in the 4th quarter, coming to about 19%. This result includes a
9% sales increase for single coil tanks, with a simultaneous 70% sales decrease for double
coil tanks, which may be a reflection of greater surfaces of solar collectors in the 4th
quarter
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Solar collectors- trend

44
of 2020, as well as solar collectors being added to existing, conventional systems instead of
building new installations. The sales of tanks and buffers in 2019 can be estimated based on
the data obtained from the market at 388 700 pieces.
In 2020, the market of instantaneous gas water heaters surprised everyone by recording a
yearly 9% sales increase, mostly thanks to a 30% sales increase in the 3rd
quarter of 2020.
Judging by the long-term trend, this is an incident rather than a reversal of an established
market trend. It can be assumed that this technology of making hot water is more and more
often supplanted by other methods of making the hot water. Devices of this sort are no longer
installed in new buildings, only the replacement market exists.
Fig. 39 Sales of instantaneous gas water heaters in 2014 –2020 (Source: SPIUG study)
Fig. 40 Sales of tankless gas HUW heaters in 2014 –2020 – trend (Source: SPIUG study)
112000
104000
91700 92000
86000
81000 79900 81000
72200
79580
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Instantaneous gas water heaters [pcs.]
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Instantaneous gas water heaters- trend

4 Summary of the forecast for development of
the installation and heating market in the fu-
ture
Any attempt at forecasting the direction of the heating device sales and installation market
development in 2021 and beyond is risky at least. Particularly since the covid pandemic hit
Europe and other continents in February 2020, the heating device market development is
dependent on two basic factors: the state policy and the purchasing power of the potential
investors, being customers of the installation wholesale outlets. At the beginning of the pan-
demic in April 2020, politicians and their dependent experts of all kinds foretold an economic
crisis in no uncertain terms. In 2017, 2018 and 2019, we dealt with high increases in the sales
of heating devices, to such a degree that the plausibility of the data was questioned. In 2020,
the growth curve flattened a bit in the entire industry apart from heat pumps, which in the last
few years were intensely promoted Europe-wide, as also seen on the Polish market. The
results of the 1st quarter of 2021 indicate that the prosperous economy prevails in the heating
industry also in 2021. In 2020, the main sales driver was the so-called replacement market
for old heating devices, particularly heating boilers. The situation in 2021 will likely be similar.
In a normal situation, i.e. without the negative impact of the coronavirus, we would have
counted on this trend to continue in the following years. The replacement market potential in
Poland is enormous. At the European level, support programmes are being prepared as part
of the renovation wave, which may also further reinforce the replacement market in Poland.
Currently, many countries, including Poland, are preparing solutions related to the so-called
restart of the economy after the slowdown and losses suffered by many industries due to the
on-going pandemic.
The current coronavirus pandemic, despite becoming somewhat commonplace, is still se-
verely affecting the Polish and European economy, particularly in the service sphere, which
is also a customer of the installation and heating industry. The preventive activities intended
to reduce the virus hazard, restrict business activity in order to decrease movement, which
also concerns foreigners working in numerous sectors of the economy and limits the number
of people crossing the borders. In many cases, these actions made it necessary to close
business activity in the service sector, and to restrict production due to the reduced workforce,
broken supply chains and significant reduction of the capital flow in the consumption sphere.
This combines with the growing prices of raw materials and semi-finished products, increas-
ingly noticeable since the end of 2020, as well as their declining availability and increasingly
long delivery times, which is hard to explain in view of the reported slowdown in the industry,
where the demand for raw materials cannot be satisfied at the same level as before the pan-
demic. In this situation, the government must send a clear message on how to manage in
this exceptional situation of the coronavirus pandemic, yet all we receive are more and more
declarations and support for selected groups of business activity. Meanwhile, a lot depends

46
on the actions taken right now. One of these elements can be activities in the construction
and renovation industry. This is a crucial sector, essential for economic revival and comple-
tion of long-term climate goals concerning reduction of CO2 in buildings, low emission and
increased energy security, as well as transformation of the power industry, which may posi-
tively affect the development of the heating and installation industry. One of these activities
could be a programme incentivizing the Polish citizens to replace old and inefficient heating
and cooling devices installed in their homes, e.g. via scrapping programmes, like in the case
of old cars. Such an incentive scheme could also include housing cooperatives which manage
a lot of buildings equipped with energy-inefficient heating and cooling devices. From the per-
spective of every industry, in times of crisis it is crucial to maintain programmes which stimu-
late the demand. One should remember that the heating and installation industry is not au-
tonomous and depends on the situation in other industries.
A new and improved „Clean Air” programme has been activated in May 2020. The new and
improved version of this programme is positively affecting the growth of the heating device
market utilizing new technologies, and further improvements to this programme are expected
in 2021. A support programme for heat pumps in new buildings is being prepared, which on
one hand appears to be a step in the right direction, yet the experience from an earlier support
programme for solar collectors warrants fears that a programme intended solely for one prod-
uct group, instead of one supporting the entire sector of RES-based heating systems, may
negatively affect the heat pump market by dividing the stable distribution network, making the
heat pump sales dependent on the subsidies and an uncontrolled influx of these devices from
outside the EU, mostly from China, as was the case with solar collectors, making companies
from the far east the actual beneficiaries of the potential boom for heat pumps . In 2021, the
EU will introduce new regulations concerning energy efficiency in buildings and reduction of
the carbon footprint. Currently the European Committee is in the middle of heated discussions
regarding the final shape of these regulations, with an active participation of lobbyists for spe-
cific solutions, who try to affect the decisions being made. This concerns the taxonomy appli-
cable from 2025 and further arrangements regarding the Green Deal. In this context, one can
observe a certain smear campaign against earth gas, which is currently considered a transi-
tory fuel in the process of transforming the heat supply. Taking into account that the gas
heating technologies are the most commonly used in buildings in the EU: in 2017, gas boilers
constituted 70% of the installed heating devices using water as the heat carrier in the EU, and
at the same time about 44 million of the installed gas boilers are obsolete and energy-ineffi-
cient, which means they would have to be replaced by future-oriented technologies, such as
boilers adopted to burn hydrogen and typical hydrogen boilers, electrical heat pumps, hybrid
systems, thermally-supplied heat pumps, solar collector systems with heat storages and mi-
cro-cogeneration, it is hard to imagine a state-ordained departure from gas in the years to
come, as, so far, there is no real alternative for the users, acceptable in economic and tech-
nical terms. Departure from fossil fuels is a must, yet will probably be evolutionary and only
as fast as the current conditions permit. Therefore, in 2021, apart from a potentially higher
share of heating technologies utilizing electricity (heat pumps, electric boilers, other heating

methods), perhaps we will see an increased interest in hybrid systems, combining gas boilers
with solar collectors or heat pumps, which would reduce the CO2 emission in buildings and
decrease the costs of operation for the users, as is already happening in Germany. Also, it is
possible that the wave of popularity of solar cogeneration in the form of hybrid PVT collectors,
which is currently present in the Western Europe, will arrive in Poland.
Also, since 2018, there has been a visible decrease in the growth dynamics of the residential
construction, which was also visible in 2020, which is the main consumer of heating devices
and systems. In 2020, the share of individual construction was on the rise – a traditional
consumer of individual heating devices in all the categories, i.e. commissioned apartments,
building permits or reports, as well as commenced constructions. This situation will certainly
affect the sales of individual heating devices in 2021 and beyond, unless a deeper economic
crisis occurs. Therefore, the conditions created on the replacement market as part of prevent-
ing low emissions will be crucial for the growing sales of the heating devices in the near future.
One may assume that the results for 2021 will be positive, despite the ongoing pandemic, but
everything may change if the boundary conditions change. These boundary conditions may
include further price increases for raw materials in the global markets, which translate into the
prices of heating devices. One may still expect the market changes from the recent years to
continue in individual products groups, in accordance with the earlier remarks. The develop-
ment of energy-efficient construction and implementation of the building energy efficiency re-
quirements should have an increasing effect on the selection of the heating devices. A smaller
demand for heat thanks to elimination of losses via building partition and recuperation of heat
from the ventilation increases the demand for devices with lower power, which will translate
into lower operating costs, which may be important during an economic impairment of the
society. Also, the growing awareness of storing heat generated in excess in favourable con-
ditions by the RES may increase the demand for hot water tanks larger than those used con-
ventionally at the time, and more extensive use of solar collectors as heat source. The industry
has high hopes of commencing works on the RES heat act, which is a highly necessary ele-
ment of developing the heat engineering in Poland.
One may certainly assume continued, double-digit increases in the sales of heat pumps,
mostly for new houses due to limitations in the systems and locations of modernized buildings.
This acceleration may certainly be affected by the planned support programmes for heat
pumps, although there are fears that lack of aid for other RES systems for heat generation
may spoil the Polish market for these devices, which is growing so well and steadily. If there
is a renaissance of using solar collectors, both as individual devices but mostly as support
systems or elements of hybrid systems with other devices, one may hope for a more dynamic
growth of RES-based heating technologies. Hybrid systems combining heat pumps or electric
boilers with home PV systems in low-energy houses and solar collectors integrated with var-
ious heating devices are becoming increasingly popular in Poland. Thanks to this solution,
the investor actually receives heat from the RES, as the electricity powering the heat pump

48
comes from the RES, and a certain effect of energy independence, which is starting to be
increasingly popular, also in Poland.
In 2020, there was a further drop in the sales of solar collectors in Poland, coming to over
160,000 m2. This result cannot be surprising, taking into account the very small presence of
solar collectors in the installation and heating wholesale outlets. The cause is simple. In Po-
land, solar collectors are sold almost exclusively via communal projects, which are provided
with this solution by specialist installation companies. A number of projects and tenders have
already been completed. Currently, projects created in the EU financial perspective by 2020
they are still being carried out. Once they run out, one can assume another slump in the solar
collector market in 2021, unless the manufacturers and decision-makers start promoting this
technology and rebuild the distribution channel including installation wholesale outlets. A cer-
tain chance for this type of installation is to use the collectors for heating as part of the Clean
Air Programme, and the need for modernizing the network heat systems based on the RES,
as well as combining them in heating systems with gas and electric boilers, particularly in the
existing buildings, where even after a partial thermal renovation, additional heat sources such
as boilers may be necessary during cold spells, in order to supplement the solar collectors or
heat pumps. This solution would reduce the so-called energy exclusion for using RES heat,
increasing its share in the energy balance of the buildings, and would provide the residents
of such buildings with a certain thermal comfort all year round.
In the case of solid fuel boilers, the situation is more dynamic. After the amendment to the
solid fuel boilers, implemented in March 2019, the manufacturers and wholesalers have been
reporting a significant drop in the sales of manually-fed boilers. For a while, this drop has been
signalled along with an increase in the popularity of automatically-fed boilers. The downward
trend applies particularly to boilers fired with coal and its derivatives. This trend will certainly
continue in 2021 too, particularly as boilers with automatic feeders can currently be sold and
installed, and in the case of manually-fed boilers – only those with a buffer, which increases
the installation costs. In 2020, coal as fuel in households was practically abandoned in favour
of biomass boilers, although the declining trend was lower than in 2019. Moving to biomass
as the only solid fuel used in the future takes place consistently and faster than assumed
earlier.
In the recent years, the most spectacular sales increases for heating devices applied to gas
boilers. Burning gas in condensing boilers produces steam and carbon dioxide. Of course,
the latter is the cause of a certain smear campaign against gas, as one of the causes of the
climatic changes and global warming. The impact of several million gas boilers on the climatic
changes on Earth is disputable. It is a fact that burning gas produces almost zero suspended
dust, which is why gas boilers are so willingly used to replace the old devices wherever there
are no special requirements for changing the system, and the effect of an improved air quality
is desired immediately, giving them the leading position in the replacement market, as part of
the “Clean Air” programme.. Since 2016, the market has been dominated by condensing boil-
ers, which are currently the largest group of heating devices sold in Poland, which will

consolidate in 2021. There is a certain market niche of conventional boilers replaced wherever
technical reasons preclude a trouble-free installation of condensing boilers. This small market
niche will most likely survive in 2021, despite high drops in 2019, but one can assume that in
time this product group will go extinct on its own. Also, for several years, there has been a
tendency to depart from suspended boilers in favour of suspended boiler cascades. This is a
slow process, but this trend has been prevailing for several years and will probably continue
in 2021, unless there is slump in the market of the traditional customers, that is the tourist and
catering industry.
One can also see significant upward trends for surface heating. The radiator market appears
to be stable with a small decrease, despite the number of investments completed in the scope
of enclosed structures. This is another sign of a slow evolution of one heating technology at
the expense of another. The current trend towards better thermal insulation and limiting heat
losses accelerates the market development towards recuperation systems. And this trend will
certainly continue in the years to come. One should remember that surface heating, similarly
to heat pumps, are currently chosen mostly for new buildings. Even accounting for the re-
duced dynamics in the enclosed structure industry, mostly residential, which was noticeable
last year, this market segment should not be negatively affected, yet a slowdown in the con-
struction of new apartments and houses may have more visible effects.
The industry itself shows an increasing number of consolidation activities, where smaller en-
tities are absorbed or taken over by those with more capital.
To sum up: the year 2021 in the installation and heating industry is a great unknown, due to
the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, which are hard to predict, and the interna-
tional situation which may disturb the continuity of supply from the Far East. For the European
companies, this is an opportunity to increase their independence, and maybe to make more
devices locally, in the EU. Much depends on the policy of the central and EU authorities, as
long as they are consistent in their activities intended to restrict low emissions and support
the economy. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the development of the heating device market
in the near future, as it will depend on numerous factors, both domestic and international.
Prepared and compiled by:
Janusz Starościk
Member of the Pool of Experts Switzerland Global Enterprise, SPIUG
Warsaw, 2021-04-18

Heating device market in Poland in 2020

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Heating device market in Poland in 2020