This document discusses the differences between periods of economic and market conditions. It notes that in the 1970s, inflation-adjusted returns hit -75%, while the 1980s-90s saw the emergence of new technologies that drove wealth creation. Currently, interest rates are at historic lows, making equities relatively more appealing. The author argues that distinguishing periods when fundamental factors are truly different is important for investment decisions. Sometimes markets reflect collective madness, while other times data shows a real change. Investors need to recognize differences in economic environments.
The document summarizes and critiques a Rolling Stone article by Matt Taibbi accusing Goldman Sachs of causing major economic downturns over the past century through risky and fraudulent practices. The summary argues that while Taibbi's article is entertaining, it relies on inaccurate or misleading facts and data. It proceeds to analyze several specific claims from Taibbi's article, finding that the numbers and details provided are often wrong or one-sided. For example, Goldman was not the leading underwriter in tech IPOs as claimed. Overall, the summary concludes that while valid criticisms can be made, Taibbi's "facts are adapted to theories, and not vice versa," making the article more about entertainment than informed analysis.
Observations from Q1 Retailer Earnings and C19 Durable Changesthomas paulson
We studied the earnings results from the 20 largest US retailers that have reported their Q1'20/C-19 period business results. From this we have distilled out what we believe to be the durable changes in consumer behavior and the retail industry.
The document discusses the uncertain economic situation according to conversations the author had with policymakers. It says that while some things are improving, they are not everywhere, and the improvements may not last. The future remains unclear and difficult to predict with confidence. Overall it portrays a situation that is mixed and uncertain.
The annual report summarizes Walmart's financial performance in fiscal year 2002, which was challenging due to economic adversity including a recession and the impacts of 9/11. However, Walmart increased revenues by 13.8% to $218 billion, gaining market share. It also opened almost 200 new stores. The report attributes Walmart's success to its 1.4 million hardworking associates who provided great customer service and kept costs low. It emphasizes that associates are the most important asset and discusses Walmart's focus on developing future leaders from within.
The document summarizes an interview with Alan Klein of Simpson Thacher about the state of the M&A market. Klein makes three key points about 2015: 1) M&A has been dominated by large strategic deals rather than private equity deals; 2) The number of deals is flat despite high total value, concentrated in a small number of mega-deals; 3) Factors like global economic uncertainty could increase deal risk and cause the robust M&A market to slow. Klein believes the obvious deals have been completed and future deals may face more challenges, suggesting the market may be reaching an "inflection point" where confidence and activity could decline from current high levels. Nothing is certain, but signs indicate M&A may
The economy in Fishkill, NY is struggling. Many businesses have closed or are struggling to stay open due to high costs of living and low incomes. As a result, shopping centers have numerous vacant storefronts marked "For Rent". Even large employers like IBM are downsizing and selling off property. Homes are also sitting on the market as people cannot afford their mortgages or rising utility costs. The struggling local economy has led to high unemployment and financial stress for residents.
The document summarizes and critiques a Rolling Stone article by Matt Taibbi accusing Goldman Sachs of causing major economic downturns over the past century through risky and fraudulent practices. The summary argues that while Taibbi's article is entertaining, it relies on inaccurate or misleading facts and data. It proceeds to analyze several specific claims from Taibbi's article, finding that the numbers and details provided are often wrong or one-sided. For example, Goldman was not the leading underwriter in tech IPOs as claimed. Overall, the summary concludes that while valid criticisms can be made, Taibbi's "facts are adapted to theories, and not vice versa," making the article more about entertainment than informed analysis.
Observations from Q1 Retailer Earnings and C19 Durable Changesthomas paulson
We studied the earnings results from the 20 largest US retailers that have reported their Q1'20/C-19 period business results. From this we have distilled out what we believe to be the durable changes in consumer behavior and the retail industry.
The document discusses the uncertain economic situation according to conversations the author had with policymakers. It says that while some things are improving, they are not everywhere, and the improvements may not last. The future remains unclear and difficult to predict with confidence. Overall it portrays a situation that is mixed and uncertain.
The annual report summarizes Walmart's financial performance in fiscal year 2002, which was challenging due to economic adversity including a recession and the impacts of 9/11. However, Walmart increased revenues by 13.8% to $218 billion, gaining market share. It also opened almost 200 new stores. The report attributes Walmart's success to its 1.4 million hardworking associates who provided great customer service and kept costs low. It emphasizes that associates are the most important asset and discusses Walmart's focus on developing future leaders from within.
The document summarizes an interview with Alan Klein of Simpson Thacher about the state of the M&A market. Klein makes three key points about 2015: 1) M&A has been dominated by large strategic deals rather than private equity deals; 2) The number of deals is flat despite high total value, concentrated in a small number of mega-deals; 3) Factors like global economic uncertainty could increase deal risk and cause the robust M&A market to slow. Klein believes the obvious deals have been completed and future deals may face more challenges, suggesting the market may be reaching an "inflection point" where confidence and activity could decline from current high levels. Nothing is certain, but signs indicate M&A may
The economy in Fishkill, NY is struggling. Many businesses have closed or are struggling to stay open due to high costs of living and low incomes. As a result, shopping centers have numerous vacant storefronts marked "For Rent". Even large employers like IBM are downsizing and selling off property. Homes are also sitting on the market as people cannot afford their mortgages or rising utility costs. The struggling local economy has led to high unemployment and financial stress for residents.
StockTakers Black Swan 'likeables' doubled your money in 30 months, because we can. We prove risk averse investing works for Capital Safety, AlphaSmartTM gains and Liquidity.
Let others chase their gamblers’ risk/reward model, CAPM options pricing and modern portfolio management MPT conjectures and none of them have proven they work - except for those who sell them.
Good reason as we show in our risk averse Risk Price driven ‘likeables’ works for Capital Safety, AlphaSmartTM gains and Liquidity for the small investor.
1) Kohl's began in 1962 as a small grocery store in Wisconsin and grew to become a large supermarket chain before transitioning to retail. It has undergone several ownership changes and expansions over the decades.
2) A financial analysis of Kohl's found its current ratio of 1.84 and inventory turnover of 3.63 to be healthy, but total debt ratio of 0.54 and profit margin of 6.21% to be on the lower side.
3) A peer analysis showed Kohl's has a higher profit margin than industry average, but uses more debt financing for growth than competitors. Kohl's prospects for continued growth over the next 10 years are positive.
The current economic expansion has achieved 2 significant milestones. And what makes these milestones special is that when combined together, they create an economic paradox.
For starters, the current economic expansion has set the record as the longest period of continuous economic growth in US history.
While at the same time, it has also set the record as being the weakest period of continuous economic growth in US history.
This should raise questions as well as concerns.
The answer to the primary question is as follows: this economic expansion has been completely supported and enabled by unorthodox interest policies by global central banks. Zero % and negative % interest rates around the world has allowed economies to maintain positive, yet muted growth.
The concern with this economic experience is that the majority of this growth has been artificially created.
In this IceCap Global Outlook, we examine the invisible hand and why it is the key to understanding why economic growth is so weak, and better still - what happens next.
Warren Buffett says his guiding principle is to “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” There’s certainly plenty of fear out there, and thus plenty of opportunities to get greedy. Greed, however, does not necessarily translate into wealth.
In “Beyond Fear and Greed: Capitalizing on Opportunities in the Current Crisis,” we draw on our two years of research into more than 2,500 major corporate failures and our related consulting work to describe the landmines that companies are mostly like to hit as they try to capitalize on the turmoil that has roiled many markets since the summer of 2008. We also lay out a process for stress testing new business strategies, ensuring that greed does not send you down the wrong path and increasing the chances that you’ll pick a highly prosperous road.
StockTakers proprietary Risk Price investors need to be Capital Safe, Liquid and AlphaSmartTM
Market behaviour prefers our “likeables” trading above Risk Price and bids them up. Our method is proven. Because we can, you can.
Now for the really nice facts from the Sleeping Black Swan you gained a tidy 50.69% for snoozing for 33.7 months, a 17.45% IRR ... versus the stoploss managed portfolio model Solo50k managed every 3 months only, 86.11% IRR. That yield is 24.84% IRR p.a. and is proof ‘likeables’ risk averse discipline is Capital Safe, Liquid and AlphaSmartTM.
This document summarizes recent developments at Hilton Worldwide under CEO Chris Nassetta's leadership. It discusses Hilton's successful IPO in late 2013 that raised $2.35 billion and valued the company at $33 billion. It then describes two subsequent announcements: Blackstone reducing its ownership stake in Hilton from 76% to an anticipated 55% by the end of 2014; and Hilton partnering with a Chinese company to rapidly expand its Hampton brand in China with a goal of over 400 hotels over the next few years to capitalize on growing Chinese domestic travel. The document presents Nassetta discussing the keys to Hilton's turnaround since Blackstone's acquisition in 2007, including refocusing the company's culture
Conventional economics fails based in theory consisting of 'fantastic objects'. Equilibrium in efficient markets is a fantasy in fogginess. Clouds are a fact of open systems process.
StockTakers charitable proprietary yields 24.80% IRR. Really, in realtime public B.S.T. portfolio for small investors.
Risk Averse ... Capital Safety, Liquidity, AlphaSmartTM gain, all because we can, with applying our new theory of the firm.
Regardless of your industry, learn how the Big Box retailers spoof you into thinking that their prices are lower across the board than they actually are...Read More
The document provides background information on factoring and how it works. It defines key terms like invoices, accounts receivable, clients, customers, and factors. It explains that factors generate revenue not through interest on loans, but by purchasing invoices from clients at a discount fee. Factors provide upfront advances to clients and release reserves once invoices are paid, helping clients improve their cash flow.
The document provides 15 common problems encountered when editing business stories and offers advice to avoid them. It cautions editors to carefully check facts and figures, distinguish between proposed and completed deals or changes, avoid confusing similar terms, and beware of PR spin masquerading as reporting. Editors are advised to look up names, numbers and terms they are unsure of rather than making assumptions.
The Greenlight Capital funds returned 9.4% in Q3 2012, bringing the YTD return to 13.2%. Central banks around the world have engaged in unprecedented monetary easing through bond purchases. The Fed will purchase $40B per month of mortgage backed securities indefinitely at near 0% interest rates. There is concern that further monetary stimulus could create new asset bubbles. Gold and several stock positions contributed positively to returns in Q3, while an undisclosed macro position was negative.
StockTakers note SDR status for Yuan highlights capitalism's roots in Liberal Democracy near thousand year foundation building in common good, rules of law, and human rights. It is a package without options political debate can ignore in any nation.
This portfolio seeks to invest $500,000 in stocks representing the seven deadly sins. It provides details on the portfolio holdings, including the company, ticker, market capitalization, weight in the portfolio, and performance for each holding over the investment period from 9/11/2015 to 11/20/2015. The portfolio achieved positive returns for most holdings and an overall return higher than the S&P500 benchmark.
The document discusses the history of Bausch + Lomb, which was founded in 1853 through a handshake agreement between John Jacob Bausch and Henry Lomb and grew to be a successful American company. However, in the 1990s the company lost its vision and spirit under "professional managers" more focused on numbers than innovation, leading to financial issues and an eventual sale to a private equity firm in 2007. There are now concerns that a potential future sale being explored could be bad for the company's Rochester headquarters and employees.
This document discusses trends that will emerge in 2021 based on cultural changes accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. It identifies 8 trends:
1. Realistic optimism - People will remain cautiously optimistic about the future due to continued uncertainty.
2. Soft capitalism - There will be increased debate around reforming capitalism to reduce inequality.
3. Amphibious life - People will seamlessly move between physical and virtual worlds in their work and daily lives.
4. Individual redesign - Younger people will seek to reinvent themselves, and there will be a boom in startups and online education.
The document provides analysis and examples for each trend, and discusses the implications for brands. It argues the pandemic
This document provides tips and information for homeowners considering selling their house. It discusses reasons why selling in the fall makes sense, including strong buyer demand, less competition from other sellers, and a quicker home selling process. It also outlines expert predictions that the housing market will continue strengthening in the second half of 2019. The document advises homeowners that now is a perfect time to sell due to low inventory, high buyer demand, and the potential for price appreciation. It argues that hiring a real estate professional provides advantages over selling a home as a for-sale-by-owner.
Discover the 4 mistakes people who sell commercial property too late make and how much is cost them in the last market downturn between 2008-2010.
For more information visit: https://bit.ly/2FmlR2z
A Comissão Organizadora do Concurso Público da Prefeitura de Mâncio Lima analisou os recursos impetrados e deferiu apenas um, corrigindo uma inscrição. Os demais recursos foram indeferidos e os gabaritos permanecem inalterados. Os pareceres dos recursos estão disponíveis para consulta.
1) O documento discute testes paramétricos para variáveis dependentes de escala e suas aplicações em diferentes situações de variáveis independentes qualitativas e de escala. 2) Os testes t e ANOVA são usados para comparar médias entre dois ou mais grupos independentes ou emparelhados. 3) A correlação de Pearson mede a força e direção da relação linear entre variáveis de escala, enquanto a regressão estabelece uma equação para descrever essa relação.
StockTakers Black Swan 'likeables' doubled your money in 30 months, because we can. We prove risk averse investing works for Capital Safety, AlphaSmartTM gains and Liquidity.
Let others chase their gamblers’ risk/reward model, CAPM options pricing and modern portfolio management MPT conjectures and none of them have proven they work - except for those who sell them.
Good reason as we show in our risk averse Risk Price driven ‘likeables’ works for Capital Safety, AlphaSmartTM gains and Liquidity for the small investor.
1) Kohl's began in 1962 as a small grocery store in Wisconsin and grew to become a large supermarket chain before transitioning to retail. It has undergone several ownership changes and expansions over the decades.
2) A financial analysis of Kohl's found its current ratio of 1.84 and inventory turnover of 3.63 to be healthy, but total debt ratio of 0.54 and profit margin of 6.21% to be on the lower side.
3) A peer analysis showed Kohl's has a higher profit margin than industry average, but uses more debt financing for growth than competitors. Kohl's prospects for continued growth over the next 10 years are positive.
The current economic expansion has achieved 2 significant milestones. And what makes these milestones special is that when combined together, they create an economic paradox.
For starters, the current economic expansion has set the record as the longest period of continuous economic growth in US history.
While at the same time, it has also set the record as being the weakest period of continuous economic growth in US history.
This should raise questions as well as concerns.
The answer to the primary question is as follows: this economic expansion has been completely supported and enabled by unorthodox interest policies by global central banks. Zero % and negative % interest rates around the world has allowed economies to maintain positive, yet muted growth.
The concern with this economic experience is that the majority of this growth has been artificially created.
In this IceCap Global Outlook, we examine the invisible hand and why it is the key to understanding why economic growth is so weak, and better still - what happens next.
Warren Buffett says his guiding principle is to “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” There’s certainly plenty of fear out there, and thus plenty of opportunities to get greedy. Greed, however, does not necessarily translate into wealth.
In “Beyond Fear and Greed: Capitalizing on Opportunities in the Current Crisis,” we draw on our two years of research into more than 2,500 major corporate failures and our related consulting work to describe the landmines that companies are mostly like to hit as they try to capitalize on the turmoil that has roiled many markets since the summer of 2008. We also lay out a process for stress testing new business strategies, ensuring that greed does not send you down the wrong path and increasing the chances that you’ll pick a highly prosperous road.
StockTakers proprietary Risk Price investors need to be Capital Safe, Liquid and AlphaSmartTM
Market behaviour prefers our “likeables” trading above Risk Price and bids them up. Our method is proven. Because we can, you can.
Now for the really nice facts from the Sleeping Black Swan you gained a tidy 50.69% for snoozing for 33.7 months, a 17.45% IRR ... versus the stoploss managed portfolio model Solo50k managed every 3 months only, 86.11% IRR. That yield is 24.84% IRR p.a. and is proof ‘likeables’ risk averse discipline is Capital Safe, Liquid and AlphaSmartTM.
This document summarizes recent developments at Hilton Worldwide under CEO Chris Nassetta's leadership. It discusses Hilton's successful IPO in late 2013 that raised $2.35 billion and valued the company at $33 billion. It then describes two subsequent announcements: Blackstone reducing its ownership stake in Hilton from 76% to an anticipated 55% by the end of 2014; and Hilton partnering with a Chinese company to rapidly expand its Hampton brand in China with a goal of over 400 hotels over the next few years to capitalize on growing Chinese domestic travel. The document presents Nassetta discussing the keys to Hilton's turnaround since Blackstone's acquisition in 2007, including refocusing the company's culture
Conventional economics fails based in theory consisting of 'fantastic objects'. Equilibrium in efficient markets is a fantasy in fogginess. Clouds are a fact of open systems process.
StockTakers charitable proprietary yields 24.80% IRR. Really, in realtime public B.S.T. portfolio for small investors.
Risk Averse ... Capital Safety, Liquidity, AlphaSmartTM gain, all because we can, with applying our new theory of the firm.
Regardless of your industry, learn how the Big Box retailers spoof you into thinking that their prices are lower across the board than they actually are...Read More
The document provides background information on factoring and how it works. It defines key terms like invoices, accounts receivable, clients, customers, and factors. It explains that factors generate revenue not through interest on loans, but by purchasing invoices from clients at a discount fee. Factors provide upfront advances to clients and release reserves once invoices are paid, helping clients improve their cash flow.
The document provides 15 common problems encountered when editing business stories and offers advice to avoid them. It cautions editors to carefully check facts and figures, distinguish between proposed and completed deals or changes, avoid confusing similar terms, and beware of PR spin masquerading as reporting. Editors are advised to look up names, numbers and terms they are unsure of rather than making assumptions.
The Greenlight Capital funds returned 9.4% in Q3 2012, bringing the YTD return to 13.2%. Central banks around the world have engaged in unprecedented monetary easing through bond purchases. The Fed will purchase $40B per month of mortgage backed securities indefinitely at near 0% interest rates. There is concern that further monetary stimulus could create new asset bubbles. Gold and several stock positions contributed positively to returns in Q3, while an undisclosed macro position was negative.
StockTakers note SDR status for Yuan highlights capitalism's roots in Liberal Democracy near thousand year foundation building in common good, rules of law, and human rights. It is a package without options political debate can ignore in any nation.
This portfolio seeks to invest $500,000 in stocks representing the seven deadly sins. It provides details on the portfolio holdings, including the company, ticker, market capitalization, weight in the portfolio, and performance for each holding over the investment period from 9/11/2015 to 11/20/2015. The portfolio achieved positive returns for most holdings and an overall return higher than the S&P500 benchmark.
The document discusses the history of Bausch + Lomb, which was founded in 1853 through a handshake agreement between John Jacob Bausch and Henry Lomb and grew to be a successful American company. However, in the 1990s the company lost its vision and spirit under "professional managers" more focused on numbers than innovation, leading to financial issues and an eventual sale to a private equity firm in 2007. There are now concerns that a potential future sale being explored could be bad for the company's Rochester headquarters and employees.
This document discusses trends that will emerge in 2021 based on cultural changes accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. It identifies 8 trends:
1. Realistic optimism - People will remain cautiously optimistic about the future due to continued uncertainty.
2. Soft capitalism - There will be increased debate around reforming capitalism to reduce inequality.
3. Amphibious life - People will seamlessly move between physical and virtual worlds in their work and daily lives.
4. Individual redesign - Younger people will seek to reinvent themselves, and there will be a boom in startups and online education.
The document provides analysis and examples for each trend, and discusses the implications for brands. It argues the pandemic
This document provides tips and information for homeowners considering selling their house. It discusses reasons why selling in the fall makes sense, including strong buyer demand, less competition from other sellers, and a quicker home selling process. It also outlines expert predictions that the housing market will continue strengthening in the second half of 2019. The document advises homeowners that now is a perfect time to sell due to low inventory, high buyer demand, and the potential for price appreciation. It argues that hiring a real estate professional provides advantages over selling a home as a for-sale-by-owner.
Discover the 4 mistakes people who sell commercial property too late make and how much is cost them in the last market downturn between 2008-2010.
For more information visit: https://bit.ly/2FmlR2z
A Comissão Organizadora do Concurso Público da Prefeitura de Mâncio Lima analisou os recursos impetrados e deferiu apenas um, corrigindo uma inscrição. Os demais recursos foram indeferidos e os gabaritos permanecem inalterados. Os pareceres dos recursos estão disponíveis para consulta.
1) O documento discute testes paramétricos para variáveis dependentes de escala e suas aplicações em diferentes situações de variáveis independentes qualitativas e de escala. 2) Os testes t e ANOVA são usados para comparar médias entre dois ou mais grupos independentes ou emparelhados. 3) A correlação de Pearson mede a força e direção da relação linear entre variáveis de escala, enquanto a regressão estabelece uma equação para descrever essa relação.
Pawan Kumar Modi is seeking to enhance his skills and learn new things in a work environment. He has completed his B.Com with Honors from V.B.U. Hazaribagh in 2010, scoring 63.75%. His academic qualifications also include completing his intermediate education with 60.4% and matriculation with 48.8%. He was born in 1988 in Jharkhand, India and knows Hindi and English.
El documento habla sobre una persona que saluda a "miss". En pocas palabras, el documento no contiene información sustancial que pueda resumirse en 3 oraciones o menos.
El documento presenta 10 comportamientos digitales clave: respeto, uso responsable de la tecnología, autonomía, calidad de vida para todos, comunicación e información rápida, privacidad, acompañamiento de jóvenes y niños, seguridad en los programas utilizados, intimidad en las tecnologías y derechos de autor. Estos comportamientos enfatizan el respeto a los demás, la protección de la privacidad e intimidad, y el cumplimiento de los derechos humanos y de autor en el uso de la tecnología.
El documento analiza dos casos relacionados con aprendices del SENA. En el primer caso, se indica que Federico debe portar su carnet de aprendiz en todo momento según el capítulo 4 del reglamento. La respuesta de la líder de bienestar al aprendiz fue equivocada. En el segundo caso, se menciona que Nicolás puede solicitar formalmente los resultados de sus evaluaciones amparándose en el artículo 7, derecho 11 del reglamento.
Las siguientes acciones podrían practicarse para fomentar el respeto en la institución: 1) Dirigirse correctamente a los compañeros, maestros y respetar sus opiniones; 2) Utilizar la empatía para comprender y aceptar a todos aceptando las diferencias personales de cada uno; 3) No permitir críticas, chismes o burlas hacia los demás y fomentar la integración y el trabajo en equipo.
Quarterly report for our investors - Second Quarter 2019BESTINVER
- The international portfolio returned 10.93% in the second quarter of 2019, outperforming the European market which returned 16.25%. Over longer periods like 3 and 5 years, the international portfolio has outperformed as well.
- The international portfolio trades at a PER of 9.3x, with a growth potential of 61% according to the fund manager.
- The Iberian portfolio returned 2.03% in the second quarter, underperforming its reference index which returned 10.74%. Over longer periods like 3 and 5 years, the Iberian portfolio has outperformed its index as well.
- The Iberian portfolio trades at a PER of 9x, with a growth potential of
She adores hats. She is always very polite and respectful of others. She waves to everyone, and consistently avoids conflict. She is a lady; she is The Queen.
Without a doubt, Queen Elizabeth lives a life quite unlike everyone else in the World – after all, royalty does have its privileges. Yet, when it comes to investing, the Queen is swimming in the same pool of stock market sharks as us common people.
Like everyone else, she pours through her quarterly statements to see how she’s fared. And like everyone else, she loves to make money and simply deplores negative returns. It was rumored that the 2008 crisis hit her particularly hard – over USD 40 million in stock market losses.
This experience must have jilted something, as when The Queen was visiting the esteemed London School of Economics she asked the professor a rather “un-queen” like question – why did economists fail to predict the biggest global recession since the Great Depression?
Chris Gurnee • Foresters Equity Services Inc.
- 85,000 on the Dow: Pipedream or realistic possibility? Book review by David Wismer
- European stocks continue on torrid pace
- Risk on, until it isn’t by Jeanette Schwarz Young
- Managing 403(b) referrals in a tight-knit academic setting (Johnathon Davis, Retirement Tax Advisory Group)
The document provides an overview of business writing and summarizes key points about defining good business writing, the challenges of covering complex business topics, and tips for telling compelling business stories. It examines how reporter Charles Fishman used a local pickle company's relationship with Walmart to frame a story about the retailer's impact on suppliers. It also discusses the importance of writing about people, not just facts and figures, and using curiosity and observation to find interesting business angles beyond quarterly earnings.
- The document discusses the increased market volatility seen so far in 2016 due to concerns over China's economic slowdown, falling oil prices, and uncertainty around the pace of Fed interest rate hikes.
- It argues that investors should focus on long-term goals and plans rather than trying to predict short-term market movements, which are driven by factors like high-frequency trading and central bank actions.
- While short-term volatility may remain high, fundamental factors like company earnings growth and credit quality will still determine long-term investment returns; investors should stick to strategies focused on identifying attractive long-term value.
Preparing For The 21st Century Installment IiAnthony Vincent
The document discusses the economic downturn as representing a new global business order rather than a typical cycle. It notes that this recession is the worst since World War II globally and in the US. While the US and European economies remain weak, China and South Korea have rebounded through rapid policy intervention. The rules of the global economy are changing, and businesses must adapt to remain competitive in this "New World Order." The document argues that many countries now desire American standards of living, putting pressure on the US economy.
This document provides an overview of Market Maker Capital's private placement memorandum. It discusses trends in the market environment that have created opportunities for alternative investment strategies. Specifically, it notes that traditional securities provide little return in a low interest rate environment while exposing investors to significant risk. The document highlights demographic trends like an aging population that will reduce demand and create a systemic event. It argues the current market is in a credit bubble and overvalued. The fund aims to protect capital during downturns and acquire assets at lower prices.
This document provides an overview of Market Maker Capital's private placement memorandum. It discusses trends in the market environment that have created opportunities for alternative investment strategies. Specifically, it notes that traditional securities provide little return in a low interest rate environment while exposing investors to significant risk. The document highlights demographic trends like an aging population that will reduce demand and create a systemic event. It argues the current market is in a credit bubble and overvalued. The fund aims to protect capital during downturns and acquire assets at lower prices.
Howard Marks provides a balanced discussion of the current market environment, covering both positives and negatives. On the positive side, the U.S. economy is growing and corporate profits are increasing. However, asset valuations are very high by historical standards and investor behavior has become increasingly risky. Given the high prices and uncertainties, Marks favors a cautious stance rather than aggressiveness. While not recommending getting out of the market, he advocates incorporating more defensiveness into portfolio management strategies.
The document discusses how the US economic growth of the last decade was fueled by consumer spending and easy credit access, but these conditions have now changed in ways that make a return to "normal" unlikely. It argues that earnings growth, asset prices, and GDP in the future cannot rely on the same factors as the past 20 years, namely generous consumer credit, home equity withdrawals, and widespread lending. Going forward, consumer deleveraging, tighter credit conditions, and reduced demand will hamper earnings and the economy unless new drivers of growth can be found to replace the credit-fueled spending that drove past prosperity.
The document discusses how the US economic growth of the last decade was fueled by consumer spending and easy credit access, but these conditions have now changed in ways that make a return to "normal" unlikely. It argues that earnings and GDP growth depended on factors like monetary policy, asset inflation, and consumer leverage that are no longer applicable. It questions where future earnings, buying power, and credit will come from to support previous levels of economic activity and asset prices.
Tips To Preserve Historic Documents - Church Hill ClSamantha Jones
The document provides steps for creating an account on the HelpWriting.net site to request assistance with writing assignments, including completing an order form, reviewing bids from writers, selecting a writer, and revising the completed work as needed. It also notes that the site uses a bidding system for assignments and guarantees original, high-quality content or a full refund.
1) The document provides an introduction and overview of investing basics from the perspective of an experienced portfolio manager.
2) It discusses how technological advances over the past few decades have greatly increased access to investing for ordinary individuals by reducing trading costs and providing free access to company information.
3) The individual investor now has many low-cost options available like discounted brokerages, lower trading fees, and free access to company financial filings and news online.
This document provides guidelines for a quiz called "Econundrum Prelims" that contains 24 multiple choice and fill-in-the-blank questions. Some key details are that questions may have two parts worth 0.5 points each, the last 4 questions are part of a connected section, and hints will only be provided if less than 2 teams block them. The document then begins presenting the first question.
Slides for a talk at Universitas Gunadarma regarding current economic conditions (mostly US and commodities) as well as Indonesia's capital market followed by stock recommendations.
Years ago, the seeds were sown.
Governments began an untenable trend of consistently spending more money than they collected in taxes. The difference of course, was made up by borrowing. As the years and deficits rolled along, so too did the amount of money owing. Governments responded by borrowing even more.
Meanwhile, global economies inevitably experienced varying crises. Governments and central banks always responded the same way - even more spending (and borrowing), and lower interest rates to stimulate growth.
Today, we've reached a dead-end.
Governments continue to borrow, but only because interest rates have been reduced to 0% AND because they are borrowing from themselves by printing money.
This dead-end is also compounded by a slowing global economy caused by the reluctance of private investors to spend.
In this issue of the IceCap Global Outlook, we prepare investors for a collision between:
a slowing economy,
0% and negative% interest rates,
an unsustainable debt binge.
What happens next hasn't occurred before in our lifetime - and this is why many investors will be blindsided.
The document discusses the content of a thought bubble drawing created by the author to portray changes during the 1920s. The drawing features a flapper girl with a thought bubble reflecting on key events of the past decade, including Prohibition, Women's Suffrage, and the 1929 stock market crash. Icons like a movie reel border and dressing room lights in the title represent the rise of movies and acting as popular entertainment and hobbies during the 1920s. The thought bubble aims to capture how the 1920s were a bold, transformative time through the use of fun colors and symbols of the era.
1. G6 EZ EE KLMNO SUNDAY, MAY 18, 2014
Inflation-adjusted returns in the 1970s
hit a loss of almost 75 percent.
It was also different in the 1980s and
’90s: A universe of new technologies
emerged — cellular, semiconductors,
software, storage, micro-processors,
Internet — that really were different.
They created a massive new wealth
when new industries were created. The
investor who refused to buy anything
over traditional P/E ratios — despite
enormous growth rates and increasing
revenue and profit — missed out on an
era of generational wealth creation.
Rates are now at unprecedentedly
low levels. That’s a fundamental
difference from the prior 30 years of
inflation and yield on fixed income.
There is a lack of competition from
fixed-income products for your
investment dollar, thereby making
equity dividend stocks that much more
appealing. This is a significant
fundamental difference in the markets
and valuation and prices.
Distinguishing between the two is
crucial. Identifying when things really
are different and when the collective
madness of the crowd is in full force is
the difference between sitting out a 180
percent rally or participating in it.
You are never different. But
sometimes, the data is. The sooner
people understand this, the better off
their portfolios will be.
Ritholtz is chief investment officer of Ritholtz
Wealth Management. He is the author of
“Bailout Nation” and runs a finance blog, the
Big Picture. Twitter: @Ritholtz.
pulled money out of the markets and sat
on the sidelines.
This time was different.
Human nature is unchanging. During
the boom, greed dominates. After the
crash, the residual emotion is fear.
Investors need to recognize when the
economic environment really is
different.
In 1974, the P/E ratio of the S&P 500
was a low 7.33, but inflation was running
at 11 percent and the 10-year bond yield
was 7.4 percent. Were investors to ignore
that different data? By 1981, P/E ratios
were about the same, but risk-free yield
of the 10-year was more than 15 percent.
Some investors dismiss fundamental
differences with a wave of their hand,
often quoting Templeton in a
misinterpretation at the same time.
When fundamental factors are very
different, it is worth noting. Those
investors in the early 1970s who bought
stocks because they were cheap were
surprised when they got much cheaper.
Looking at the booms, we see that
phrase has a specific meaning, involving
investors caught up in the frenzy of the
moment. They allow greed to get the
best of them. The collective psychology
of the crowd leads to all manner of
excuse-making and rationalization as
people fall into the throes of a
speculative bubble.
I said the formula was two parts
psychology; the first part takes place
during the booms, the second after the
inevitable bust. Greed is replaced by fear.
Risk aversion occurs, as the recent past
dominates investors’ collective mind-set.
Indeed, since the March 2009 lows, I
have been calling this “the most hated
rally in Wall Street history.” Markets that
are cut in half — as the major indices
were — typically bounce back about 70
percent, and as much as several hundred
percent. Earnings recoveries of 150
percent are hugely bullish for stocks.
Low rates support higher equity prices.
These things did not matter. Investors
Initial public offerings were up 500
percent on their first day of trading.
Many of these companies were merely a
wisp of an idea, and not fully developed
firms with real revenue and earnings. It
was a new paradigm, and all about
“eyeballs” and “clicks” and “registered
users” and “first mover advantage.”
Profit no longer mattered, despite a
century of data that it in fact was the
most important valuation measure.
This time was different.
Only, it wasn’t. Within three years, the
tech-laden Nasdaq, where most of the
high-flying dot-com, tech and telecom
companies listed their stock, fell nearly
80 percent from the March 2000 peak.
Fourteen years later, the Nasdaq remains
20 percent below its 2000 high of 5,100.
The same can be said of the more
recent subprime credit bubble and
housing boom. Despite millennia of
lending based on the credit worthiness
of the borrower, the new metric became
the ability of the lender to sell the debt to
a third-party securitizer. Traditional
measures of median home prices to
median income moved almost three
standard deviations above normal.
Traditional metrics said housing
valuations were historically high and
unsustainable. They subsequently fell 35
percent nationally.
The investor psychology of the credit
bubble was simply to ignore the
traditional metrics. Underwrite that
mortgage to an unqualified buyer, buy
that home despite the huge run-up in
prices. History did not matter.
This time was different.
are many other factors that also impact
valuation: economic growth, inflation,
interest rates, cost of capital, investment
options, etc. And there are countless
variations of how to measure it. Last
year, Merrill Lynch’s quant team looked
at 15 metrics that measured equity
valuation — but the basic formula is
typically a version of price relative to a
profit-related metric.
As we have seen during various
manias, basic valuation measures become
disconnected from historical averages.
During bull markets, P/E ratios often rise
with the stock market. Multiple
expansion was responsible for nearly 75
percent of market gains during the 1982-
2000 bull market. The Standard & Poor’s
500-stock index began that secular bull
market with a P/E of about 8 and ended
with a P/E of over 30.
As the bull turned into a bubble
toward the end of that 18-year cycle, P/E
ratios soared. It was as if valuations no
longer mattered. This leads to the second
part of the math: Mean reversion occurs.
Equity prices eventually revert to their
long-term valuation measures. As prices
fall, P/E ratios often careen far below
that average when panic selling and
margin calls force liquidations.
Now let’s look at the psychology,
which is especially fascinating. When it
comes to risking capital in exchange for
potential returns, human emotions are
two-sided: greed and fear.
Recall the dot-com bubble, when
profitless companies soared in price.
ritholtz from G1
Our last-ditch effort was to pack it into
pints and sell it to the mom-and-pop
grocerystoreswepassedonthewaytothe
restaurants. That’s how we got into that
business.
Can you take me through your legend-
ary marketing battle with Pillsbury?
Greenfield: Sure. We had just started
to package ice cream and sell it to grocery
stores, and Häagen-Dazs had just been
acquired by Pillsbury, so they were now
owned by this large conglomerate. Our
companyhadpartneredwithdistributors
upnorthtostartsellingBen&Jerry’s,and
most of them were carrying Häagen-
Dazs.
At some point, Pillsbury came to the
distributors and told them to drop Ben &
Jerry’s or they would stop selling them
Häagen-Dazs, which was a profitable
item for these distributors. So they were
going to stop selling our products. We
knew that trying to sue Pillsbury, a $4 bil-
lion company, wouldn’t work, so, we de-
cided to take our case to the people with a
campaign called “What’s the Doughboy
Afraid of?”
We took out signs on buses and put an
800 number on our ice cream packaging.
If customers called, they would get an
answering machine message with Ben
and me explaining the situation. And if
they left their address on the machine, we
would send them a mailing kit with a
bumper sticker, and they could order a
“What’stheDoughboyAfraidof?”T-shirt.
It was this classic David-and-Goliath
story, and it got picked up in the press,
and eventually Pillsbury backed down
because they were getting so much public
pressure. That’s really what permitted
Ben & Jerry’s to be distributed across the
country.
Eventually Ben & Jerry’s was sold to a
large conglomerate, Unilever. How did
that sale happen?
Greenfield: It’s still not clear to us
whether the company was approached or
not. Our CEO at the time said he was
approached, though he had quite an in-
terest in selling the company because he
was very incentivized with stock options.
So he’s probably the only guy who really
knows. Once that happened, though, sev-
eral companies showed interest, and we
got into a bidding war. Once the company
was put in play, there was really no
puttingthelidbackonthejar.Honestly,at
points, it was excruciating.
If you could go back to those small-
business years and give yourself some
advice, what would it be?
Greenfield: I think we could have been
more selective in chasing opportunities.
We just felt so much pressure to go after
so many different things when we started
growing: new markets, new products. It’s
hard to do things well when you’re trying
to do so much so quickly.
I would also put even more time into
making sure we put the right people in
place, ones who believed in our social
mission but also had the necessary busi-
ness skills. Those don’t always go togeth-
er. And we knew that’s what would sepa-
rate Ben & Jerry’s: Even more than the
great flavors, it was important for us to
make our social mission a central part of
the company.
jd.harrison@washpost.com
seasonal business problem and the por-
tion-control problem. I started by going
around selling tubs to restaurants. I was
transportingtheminthisinsulatedboxin
the back of my station wagon — the idea
being to drive fast, delivering as much ice
cream as I could before it melted.
I could only hold 16 tubs in that box,
though, and we started selling more than
that, so we bought a really old ice cream
truck with mechanical refrigeration. I
drove that for a while, but our delivery
costs went up because the truck kept
breaking down and would have to be
towed back to the garage.
enough of it.
Cohen: Yeah, come winter, more mon-
ey was going out than was coming in, and
we didn’t really have any cash reserves.
We weren’t making as much money as we
had hoped in the summer, either, because
wewereover-scooping.Wecouldn’tbring
ourselves to scoop smaller portions, be-
cause customers wanted the big scoops.
Harrison: Is that what pushed you into
the wholesale business?
Cohen: Right. We thought we could
drum up extra business by selling tubs of
ice cream, which would solve both the
ing in through the ceiling. Ben spent
hours up there repairing it.
So you’re the ice cream makers and
the repairmen?
Cohen: I had to. It was in bad shape,
andwewereshortonmoney.Iwentbythe
local newspaper, and they had stacks of
thesethintinsheetstheyusedtoprintthe
papers, and they would sell the stacks for
10 or 15 cents apiece. I would tack them
onto the roof, with some tar to cover the
holes.
Thatworkedprettywellforawhile,but
eventually it started to leak. So we put up
this giant sheet of plastic across the top of
the ceiling to catch the water. But then
that started to sag. So we cut a hole where
it was sagging and ran a hose to a sink in
the back.
Greenfield: It wasn’t exactly elegant.
Cohen: Yeah, but it worked — until the
thermostat broke one day and the plastic
melted. The fire department came out,
and we had to really fix the roof.
How did you decide on the name Ben &
Jerry’s?
Cohen: I tried to be cute at first, play-
ing around with ideas like Josephine’s
Flying Machine, based on the old-timey
song.
Jerry said it was traditional for home-
made ice cream parlors to be named after
their owners, and he was right. We played
around with Ben & Jerry’s, Jerry & Ben’s,
andintheend,Ben&Jerry’sjustrolledoff
the tongue a little better. So, we made
Jerry the company president to make up
for coming last.
Greenfield: Not really last. Second.
Cohen: All right, that’s true. Second.
How did you learn the ins and outs of
running a business?
Greenfield: Honestly, we learned a lot
from these little brochures that the Small
Business Administration put out. They
were 20 cents apiece, you could get them
at the post office, and one would be about
how to calculate your break-even point,
another would be about how to manage
your books. That was pretty much our
business education.
What about your hiring decisions?
Greenfield:Itwascompletelyrandom.
We didn’t really know what we were
looking for, and we didn’t have any hiring
skills. Sometimes it worked out, and
sometimes it didn’t. Overall, though, the
people we found were amazing, and some
of them came up with some our best
ideas. Our recipe for hot fudge, for exam-
ple, basically the one we still use today,
wasarecipeoneofourearlyhiresbrought
to us.
What was your greatest challenge in
the first years?
Greenfield: Money. We didn’t have
BY J.D. HARRISON
In summer 1978, two friends opened a makeshift ice cream parlor in a converted gas
station in northern Vermont. Using a single fivegallon ice cream maker, they churned
outbatchafterbatchofwackyflavorssuchasChunkyMonkeyandHeathBarCrunch.¶
In the decades that followed, Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield built Ben & Jerry’s into a
legendary ice cream company, with more than 600 scoop shops in 35 countries around
the world and annual sales now topping $500 million. ¶ And to think it all happened
because one of them couldn’t get into medical school and the other couldn’t sell his
pottery.¶Duringajointinterview,CohenandGreenfieldtookusbacktotheearlyyears
at the company. What follows is a transcript, edited for length and clarity.
ON THE MONEY
BARRY RITHOLTZ
Think this time is different? Take your temperature. Then check the data.
ON SMALL BUSINESS
The scoop on Ben & Jerry’s start
How the numbers pile up. Is this time really different?
Price/
Earnings
17.35
17.34
24.13
15.28
7.33
Price/
Sales
1.7
1.54
1.9
0.69
n/a
10-year
yield
2.60%
4.02%
5.11%
8.07%
7.40%
S&P dividend
yield
1.85%
1.89%
1.23%
3.74%
5.43%
12 month
CPI% change
1.50%
2.80%
3.40%
5.40%
11%
TOBY TALBOT/ASSOCIATED PRESS
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Q.
J.D. Harrison: How did you
meet?
Ben Cohen: Jerry and I met in
junior high, when he fainted in
gymclass.Itmadequiteanimpressionon
me, and we quickly became friends.
Some years later, I had dropped out of
college and was trying to become a potter,
butnobodywantedtobuymypottery,and
Jerry had finished college and was trying
togotomedicalschool,butnobodywould
let him into their medical school. So I was
delivering pottery wheels and working as
a taxi driver, and he was a lab technician,
working on rat brains and cow livers in a
research lab, and neither of us really liked
what we were doing. So we decided to try
to start something together.
Why ice cream?
Jerry Greenfield: What Ben didn’t
mention was that we were both fat,
dumpy kids growing up, and we liked to
eat. So we knew we wanted to do some-
thing with food. We thought about a
whole bunch of foods — bagels, fondue,
others.
In fact, we priced out bagel-making
equipment from a used restaurant equip-
ment supplier, but we realized it was
more money than we had between us.
When we found out ice cream would be
cheaper, we picked ice cream.
How did you learn to make it?
Greenfield: We took this $5 correspon-
dence course from Penn State. I think we
splitit,paying$2.50apiece.Theysentyoua
textbook in the mail. We read through the
chapters, and all the tests were open book,
so we actually did pretty well on those.
How did you find your first location, in
Burlington, Vt.?
Cohen: We were looking for a spot that
we could afford, and we came across this
old, run-down, dilapidated gas station,
across from the City Hall Park, that had
parking where the pumps used to be. The
roof had failed, though, and there was
about four inches of ice on the floor
inside. But, you know, we went with it
because of the location.
How did you finance the start of the
business?
Cohen: We were both supposed to
come up with $4,000. Jerry came up with
his $4,000, and I came up with $2,000,
andthenImanagedtogetanother$2,000
out of my father.
Greenfield: Then we got another
$4,000 from the bank, so we started with
$12,000. Our initial loan request was for
$18,000,butbecausewehadsignedonlya
one-year lease, they didn’t think that was
very prudent. So they gave us $4,000, and
we had to make it work.
What was your next move?
Greenfield: We had to start with the
roof. I mean, you could see daylight com-
Today
2007
2000
1990
1974
Sources: BLS, Damodaran
DAN KRAUSS/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Top, Jerry Greenfield, left, and Ben Cohen pose with their Scoopmobile in
Burlington, Vt., in 1986. Middle: The orginal Ben & Jerry’s shop, a
converted gas station in Burlington, draws a crowd in 1978, the year it
opened. Above: In early 2000, a Ben & Jerry’s in San Francisco is mobbed by
people who really don’t want the company sold to a major corporation.