BlackSwanTradingTM 22oct15

“
Page 1 of 9 October 2015 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
Defend Your Capital, BlackSwanTradingTM
Update
22 October 2015
Equities trading above our benchmark Risk Price (SF) are those liked by investors, as two of three
continue to price rise due to investors’ preference. These equities we call “likeables.” They are
revealed by their rise above Risk Price, our metric that investors must know to defend their capital1
.
Cash must be engaged in the economy in business ideas with valiant balance sheets or it loses
value. That is simple fact. For small savings it is needful but arbitrary you feed at the low price end
of "likeables" we find in balance sheets. Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better
than cash. Risk Aversion, Capital Safety and Liquidity in ‘likeables’ we prove works for you.
The US markets particularly well fed on Quantitative Eating courtesy of the Federal Reserve
suddenly lost their expectations. The markets are always expectant mooing for fodder. They got
pooped when the forced feeding ended, despite early avuncular advices from Fed.
Two and a half years late Uncle Draghi is now leading that charge to easing. Xi and Putin are
pondering how they will rule the mountains, valleys, even the Black and China Seas. Saud and
Khomeini divide the sands, as 2/3rds of mankind bow their heads to Abraham’s God. Greek flirts
with the dancing Bear while Merkel gets brushed aside as the Euro banks ease the pains. Christine
Lagarde has had a moral conversion and presses for some jubilee. Meanwhile the real economy has
its head down hard enough at its work to exceed population growth and saving for a hopeful return.
The market mavens are always, ‘surprised’ again, it is their stock response. Consumers were
demanding, firms were not reversing their balance sheet cash loads. Firms that have not found their
way to innovate, have chosen to aggregate. At high cash and low rates many have chosen to buy-
back stock, as confirmed in scooping their stock-options their moral hazard gets rewarded, again.
The paid by the word business model pundits wrote lots, like arm-chair quarterbacks. The gossips
never knew and never do. Techs, banks and pharma all got pink slips at NASDAQ last autumn, but
where are those now? StockTakers “likeables” however sailed on in a sea of calm breezes from
balance sheet selected techs, banks and pharma equities. Because we have a guidepost, SF, we
know where we are and, when and where to go. Know What You Have. Have What You Know.
In 2012 as open handed display of our methods from then currently identified crop of then new
“likeables” we partitioned from NYSE for a select group the Solo50KTM
portfolio, a result of US
tax law amendments2
to encourage saving by the self-employed especially during years when the
hay is high. In 2013 Solo contributions may not exceed $51,000, or if you are age 50 or
older, $56,500 to include catch-up contribution.
Many may recall the rightly famous Black Swan crying fowl on fund managers two years ago. We
sent her a Tweet 15 April 2013 to calm her down to our methods. We introduced her to our
portfolio we called the Solo50KTM
we had prior devised to help self employed heroines in our
"there is risk in what you do not or cannot know." Thomas Tooke, 1844
"for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803

“
Update
22 October 2015
circle of readers. We can call it the BlackSwanTradingTM
or, in all respect to Noriel Roubini,
perhaps a more topical name suits BloodySlowTradingTM
counterpoints Wall Street Pumpers.3
Hans Goetze @HansGoetze Apr 15
@RealMilaKunis
Solo50Kportfolio:AIZ,AVY,BSX,CMA,DOW,GT,HCBK,LLTC,LNC,NBR,NYT,NYX,OR
CL,SYY,TE,TEX,TSN,UNM,WM=123.15%@19wks
Note Solo50KTM
had already made a 23.15% gain in the prior ‘hot’ 19 weeks. So, we reset it as
BSTTM
for Ms. Kunis. If Ms. Kunis was not just clawing air time dollars from her followers but
allocated BSTTM
it has posted 35.83% gain since, with NO CHANGES. That is disregarding our
stoploss settings that have kicked out all but 3 of the original 19 stocks in these 26 months.
We prefer capital safety, from very slow trading. With risk averse stoploss settings (instead of
collaring options as we prefer)4
BSTTM
as SOLO50K Solo50KTM
has made a nice 103.58% in 30
months. That is an annual 32.89% internal rate of return, well above our model on the DJI.
But wait, there is more to Solo50KTM
. The original Solo50KTM
had been sent prior to the
attention of a public service endowment frantic to hire a new crew among highly regarded hedge
fund managers to rebuild its capital which had declined further 18% since the 2009 plunge under
previous management. The public service aims of that foundation were threatened. They may wish
they had known sooner of our work based in new theory of the firm that proves in real markets.
This has been an unusual time of Quantitative Eating. Most everyone has forgotten the DJI was at
12966 03dec2012. That rate is not likely to be repeated even if Draghi uses QE in CBE.
Conventional bleating of the ‘dollar-per-word” industry called 2014 too volatile and 2015 too lame,
to make money, for you. With our “likeables” you can save your own bacon. You have proof.
What proof does convention offer? Yup, that is an oxymoron. Convention is flat-landers in a global
reality. Fund managers are just used equities traders do not know more than pretense, for unworthy
fee-taking so that none is ever left for you. Do not give those Artful Dodgers your wallet.
Financial industry advisors are schooled in financial products to
exploit small investor savings for their taking fees. They are not
changing their tools or sharpening those they have. They took the
“regular courses” required by a self-regulated industry driven only
their creative sales fiction. Seemingly, certification requires intensive
study in the key tools of Rhetoric - Adumbration, Subterfuge,
Mystification and Derogation. Humm, that sounds familiar.
“I only took the regular courses,” sighed the Mock Turtle.
“What was that?” inquired Alice.

“
Update
22 October 2015
“Reeling and Writhing, of course, to begin with, and then the different branches of Arithmetic –
Ambition, Distraction, Uglification, and Derision.”
The larger your “likeables” portfolio will tend to average 26% per annum Internal Rate of Return as
proven through the two recessions of the past 13 years. See our articles StockTakers’ 2012Q1 bite
on DJI5
. and The Counter Culture: Case for a Can Opener6
. Our work stands on giants, insights
of three very different laureates, and evidence as our “likeables” behaviour is proof.
That proven behaviour of our portfolios fund managers like CPPIB7
can afford to ignore as
politicians demand you must trust to invest even double-up donations in their proven failures.
Donations to their failure have already doubled since I was legally required to start paying 45 years
ago. Wall Street8
does not understand value or even price. When is any stock cheap enough9
?
Convention does not comprehend our “likeables” behaviour as hedge funds fail to deliver10
. But,
they are still skimming purses. Bonds are oh-so-ho-hum11
they do not know how to ‘fix-it’ either.
On gossip hem and haw the markets bounced and yawed with all the boats. The managers of
pensions, insurance and other equity pools trade accounts for 90% of the market, but they do not
know which way that flat-world view of theirs turns. Churning your money works for their salaries,
just not yours. Quantitative Eating ‘treacle-down’ has just capitalized sticky fingers gaming US
markets, not benefitting consumers ‘getting-on-with-their-lives’ demand driving real economics.
Our public portfolios are proof. Extending our proprietary information as charity suiting small
savers’ needs in our BookBuilderTM
allows you invest in your children’s education, TaxCharityTM
allows you invest in your retirement income needs. Because we can, so you can.
Our public portfolios do better because we can with our new theory of the firm. We seek accredited
investors to advance what we have proven. We have proof in our methods, in real time portfolios.
BlackSwanTradingTM
is a study in passivity. No changes despite better risk averse methods it just
rides along losing little in recent whirlpools. Managed with our stoploss controls from the start in
01dec12 it showed gain of 103.58% for 30.7 months. Risk averse ‘likeables’ have nice tendencies.
Portfolios Update List – 22 October 2015
BlackSwanTradingTM
(Solo 50K on NYSE)
just the equities of "likeables" Firms
Market
Price
Symbol SF
(Risk Price)
Stop/Loss
Buy-ins 01December 2012 and held, no stoploss used and portfolio left untended.
Assurant Inc. ($topLoss 10oct14) 80.79 AIZ:US 61 70.6
Avery Dennison Corp. 62.85 AVY:US 47 54.9
Boston Scientific Corp. 16.42 BSX:US 13 16.6
Comerica Inc. 41.88 CMA:US 43 43.1
Dow Chemical Co. 49.92 DOW:US 44 43.5
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. 32.57 GT:US 24 29.0
Hudson City Bancorp Inc. 9.85 HCBK:US 9 9.8

“
Update
22 October 2015
Linear Technology Corp . 45.93 LLTC 42 42.0
Lincoln National Corp. 51.39 LNC:US 48 48.5
Nabors Industries Ltd. 10.54 NBR:US 19 18.8
New York Times Company 12.87 NYT 9 15.0
NYSE Euronext (Price 15nov13 at ICE Takeover) 45.29 ICE/NYX 27
Oracle Corp. 37.79 ORCL:US 37 36.9
Sysco Corp, 41.71 SYY:US 32 38.9
Teco Energy Inc 27.09 TE:US 18 21.1
Terex Corp 19.12 TEX:US 36 36.2
Tyson Foods Inc CL A 47.18 TSN:US 30 39.8
Unum Group 33.24 UNM:US 22 34.5
Waste Management Inc. 53.51 WM:US 42 51.6
(NB: stoploss settings not used to keep capital safe. We prefer risk aversion using collaring options)
BlackSwanSleepingTM
Portfolio Value
(incl. Dividends) 22 September 2015 / 30 November 2012
70327.00 / 43465.00 Gain 34.7
months
53.33%
Current Cash
(ICE/NYX takeover 15nov13)
Dividends earned
4529.00
3684.00
Current Cash 8213.00
Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility in case of such irrational
market mavens’ pressures of Q3-2014 through Q3-2015. Irrationally volatile swings occurred without
regard for reason as stock prices sharply rebounded. Capital was defended by stoploss settings as intended
but you must rebuild the portfolio with successive replacement buy-ins as shown below.
We have progressively tightened our stoploss settings to less than a standard deviation on a 52 week rolling
range12
of a stock’s price. That does incur an added ‘churn’ cost of buying after selling at the triggered
stoploss setting. That is a consequence of exercising capital safety. There are benefits to doing that.
If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but carried-on in a slumber as above, you
gained a tidy 50.69% for snoozing like Rip Van Winkle for 33.7 months, a net 15.77% IRR p.a. gain.
This month that sleepy gain is 53.33%, an even nicer 15.88% IRR p.a. rate of gain.
In the long haul all the ‘likeables’rebounded above their Risk Price and $topLoss in dominant positive
markets. However below one sees clear example of our ‘likeables’ 2 of 3 gain tendencies at work in a
mixed market that was strongly negative on ‘news’ without substance over the past year, on newspeak
unrelated to the real economy. Above no stoplosses were applied. Below we show the effect of the stoploss
set only on quarterly basis gained 35% more at the end of 34.7 months for little effort of our model small
investor managing their personal savings portfolio every 3 months only and still over that interval including
the last rough 4 quarters they obtained 90.13% IRR.
That yield is 24.80% IRR p.a. That also is further proof our Risk Price driven ‘likeables’ risk averse
discipline is Capital Safe, Liquid and AlphaSmartTM
.

“
Update
22 October 2015
Solo 50K on NYSE ”likeables” Firms Market
Price
Symbol SF
(Risk Price)
Stop/Loss
See old posts for Buy-ins 01 December 2012 *100 shares each
Buy-ins 31mar15 *100 shares each
Analog Devices Inc. ($63.2 stopLoss 08jul15) ADI:US 46 63.2
Barnes Group Inc. ($38.8 stopLoss 21aug15) B:US 25 38.7
Broadcom Corp. ($49.9 stopLoss 06oct15) 49.90 BRCM 41 47.2
Electronic Arts Inc 74.54 EA 40 68.6
Airbus Group NV ORD ($65 stopLoss 21aug15) EADSF:US 58 65.4
NiSource Inc. (2545: 1000 Split 02jul15 $43.9 stoplosss 21aug15) NI 29 30.0
Norwegian Cruise LH Ltd. ($51.3 stopLoss 20apr15) NCLH 37 55.5
Buy-ins 15jun15 *100 shares each
Cavium Inc. ($66.1 stopLoss 21aug15) CAVM:US 40 54.3
Crown Castle Intl Corp. ($81.7 stopLoss 24aug15) CCI:US 81 80.7
Celgene Corp. ($112.6 stopLoss 24aug15) CELG:US 83 118.2
Cisco Systems Inc. ($27.5 stopLoss 10jul15) CSCO:US 22 27.5
First Horizon Natl Corp. ($13.4 stopLoss 24aug15) FHN:US 10 14.9
Buy-ins 22sep15 *100 shares each
Avery Dennison Corp 62.85 AVY:US 47 59.4
BB&T Corp 36.92 BBT 38 36.0
Cavium Inc. ($59.0 stopLoss 28sep15) 59.00 CAVM:US 40 54.3
Cisco Systems Inc 29.01 CSCO:US 22 28.0
Fidelity National Information Services 70.57 FIS:US 50 67.7
Medtronic Inc 73.07 MDT:US 50 69.8
Altria Group Inc. 61.40 MO:US 32 59.6
Pinnacle Foods Inc. ($41.7 stopLoss 29sep15) 41.70 PF:US 28 39.6
Starz Series A ($36.3 stopLoss 29sep15) 36.30 STRZA 25 33.9
Total System Services Inc 50.32 TSS:US 28 47.6
Valero Energy Corp. ($58.9 stopLoss 24sep15) 58.90 VLO:US 34 55.4
Verisk Analytics Incorporated 79.95 VRSK 69 77.2
Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended -
incl. Dividends) 22 October 2015 / 30 November 2012
82658.10 / 43465.00 Gain 34.7
months
90.13%
Current Cash (after 31mar2015 buy) 106.00
Net Cash (StopLoss BRCM CAVM PF STRZA VLO) *100
shares 24580.00
Current Cash pending Buy-ins *100 shares 24686.00
Buy-ins 22oct15 *100 shares each
Archer Daniels Midland Co 46.70 ADM:US 41 44.8
Autodesk Inc 52.59 ADSK:US 43 49.4

“
Update
22 October 2015
Big Lots Inc 47.04 BIG:US 38 45.4
Hartford Financial Services 48.78 HIG:US 24 46.6
Paychex Inc. 51.60 PAYX:US 37 50.3
Net Cash Forward 30sep14 *100 shares 15.00
Dividends earned 3951.60
Total Cash Available 3966.60
Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended -
incl. Dividends) 22 October 2015 / 30 November 2012
82658.10 / 43465.00 Gain 34.7
months
90.13%
Removal of Quantitative Eating combined with oil and gas bloat has made unusual down-side
volatility in all markets this past year. To that adjustment now older Greece and newer China
issues added spooky gossip, a ‘sea-change’, of stoplosses were triggered again in June and August,
and again in September.
Balance sheets did not flip-flop, but portfolio managers did, unrelated to ‘fundamentals’ of value
investing13
. Our tighter $toploss values reduce risk of loss. All of the stocks in our public
portfolios14
simply rebounded. Most, can still be bought back for less than they stopped out weeks
ago even as those regained 20% faster than the market. Take the bonus and buy those back.
Skimming for advantageous collaring options to protect your capital takes time, instead of working
at what you now you do best. Collaring of options can be very useful in added gains but it requires
a lot more attention than small investors can lavish.
Stoploss is a simpler approach. It is not time to loosen the easily managed $toploss values to
recover, but again we must rebuild for gain hopeful calmer markets will soon return. Price has no
mass - gravity like gossip fluctuates.
Most of North America is nearing NAIRU full employment. Political shift to fuller renewal of
infrastructure is now at forefront with income equality initiatives. All the ‘canards’ must walk the
political stage while the real economy slowly inches its recovery forward, while absorbing other
peoples abuse of ‘credit float’ in the sea of moral hazard they had created.
The reality that ‘treacle-down’ never worked is roosting, as much as, austerity is impoverishing in
hard times when innovation and investment are needed to ‘credit float’ warranted investment in
valiant business processes and enterprises in the real economy. Austerity withdraws ‘credit float’
from real economy enterprises creating worth and wealth in the business process, making ‘money’
to put in our pockets and allocate as we wish or save in ‘likeable’ equities hopeful of gain.
(Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)

“
Update
22 October 2015
Automatic Data Processing Inc. 89.69 ADP:US 77 86.1
Big Lots Inc 47.04 BIG:US 38 45.4
Conagra Foods Inc 42.39 CAG:US 29 40.7
Diamond Foods Inc 32.83 DMND 21 31.5
NASDAQ OMX Group Incorporated 59.10 NDAQ 35 56.7
USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 limit 51000.00
See old posts for Buy-ins 15 September 2013 *100 shares each
Buy-ins *100 shares 31Dec2013
Genworth Financial Inc. ($topLoss sold 30jul4) GNW:US 8 3.6
Radian Group Inc. ($16.2 stopLoss 24sep15) 16.20 RDN:US 13 15.2
Buy-ins 15jun15 *100 shares each
AbbVie Inc. I$63.4 stopLoss 21aug15) ABBV 48 46.1
Ameren Corp. 44.50 AEE:US 38 43.2
Ciena Corp. ($21.3 stopLoss 21aug15) CIEN:US 17 21.8
Media General Inc. CL A (N* drop 22sep15) MEG:US 15 13.4
Buy-ins 22sep15 *100 shares each
AbbVie Inc. ($53.5 stopLoss 28sep15) 53.50 ABBV 48 46.1
AmerisourceBergen Corp. ($98.8 stopLoss 28sep15) 98.80 ABC:US 63 87.2
Abbott Laboratories 39.40 ABT:US 28 37.8
Analog Devices Inc 63.40 ADI:US 46 59.6
Aircastle Limited 21.68 AYR:US 14 20.4
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. 82.04 CHKP:US 62 79.2
Dollar General Corp. ($67.1 stopLoss 07oct15) 67.10 DG:US 57 64.3
E Trade Financial Corp 27.07 ETFC:US 18 25.3
General Mills Inc 59.23 GIS 50 57.5
Givaudan SA ADR 36.10 GVDNY:US 26 34.8
Lions Gate Entertainment Corporation 38.46 LGF:US 31 36.7
Newell Rubbermaid Inc 42.91 NWL:US 31 41.2
Sealed Air Corp. ($45.9 stopLoss 28sep15) 45.90 SEE:US 30 47.8
USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value
22 October 2015 (incl. dividends and cash) / 15 September
2013
74702.70 / 50912.00 Gain 25.3
months
46.71%
Current 2013 Tax Shelter Cash (after 22se[15 buy) 34.00
Net Cash (StopLoss ABBV ABC ABT DG RDN SEE) *100
shares 32090.00
Current Cash pending Buy-ins *100 shares 32124.00
Buy-ins 22oct15 *100 shares each
Ameren Corp 44.50 AEE:US 38 43.2
Delta Air Lines Inc 50.81 DAL 30 47.8
CarMax Incorporated 58.24 KMX:US 47 54.2
Scana Corporation 58.56 SCG:US 45 56.2

“
Update
22 October 2015
Total System Services Inc 50.32 TSS:US 28 47.6
Texas Instruments Inc. 58.09 TXN:US 33 55.5
Net Cash Forward 22oct15 *100 shares 72.00
USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value
22 October 2015 (incl. dividends and cash) / 15 September
2013
74702.70 / 50912.00 Gain 25.3
months
46.71%
Current Cash
Dividends earned
75.00
941.65
Total Cash Available 1016.65
Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility as in case of such
irrational market mavens’ pressures trading on ‘newspeak’ and gossip. Irrationally volatile swings occurred
as the stock prices sharply rebounded without regard for any real reason. New highs were recorded in
markets showing a 6% swing in days. Capital was defended as intended but you must rebuild the portfolio
from capital protective $topLoss sales with successive replacement buy-ins as shown above. If you did not
pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but can carry-on, most rebounded above their Risk Price
and $topLoss, some are clearly ‘laggards’needing to be shunned. However one sees clear example of our
‘likeables’2 of 3 tendency in wobbling mixed markets with Solo50K BSTTM
continued gaining. Now as
market behaviours shift sharply up and down risk aversion pays with less risk and better gains.
Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon.
The conventional investment industry cannot prove any of their assumptions underlying their
methods. As we have shown, luck is all that they trade in. At their best 1.03 to 1 is just a coin-toss,
not adding value. They cannot tell of a fair price or value. A tautology is just repetition until it
appears to be logical. Lies are expedient and told often enough can even become politically correct.
Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash. We like Capital Safety and
Liquidity because we have proven our risk aversion works, consistently obtaining both low risk
and AlphaSmartTM
high gain. Our Risk Price is what investors must know to defend their capital.
Market behaviour prefers the “likeables” trading above Risk Price and bids up their price. Our
method is proven. Because we can, you can15
.
In our Modal Geometry16
theory of the firm we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows:
1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly
weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared
to be responsible for); and,
2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, “what it owns” (in order to stay in business “what is
owed to it” with “what it owes” and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its
trading connections).

“
Update
22 October 2015
The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded by rigourous observation of corporate ledgers
relation to balance sheets as business process17
adds value. That is aided with logic, epistemology,
and some powerful mathematics. You have proof in these TaxCharityTM
portfolios performances.
Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. “likeables”
tendency demonstrates 2 of 3 gaining for the long term. This we show proof positive, in our
TaxCharityTM
and BookBuilderTM
portfolios continued gain.
Know What You Have. Have What You Know.
Our view is risk averse. Of course we require 2&20 fees for doing that. Mail us for our help.
Hans Goetze,
Architypes Inc. architypes@gmail.com and StockTakers Limited hg.stocktaker@gmail.com
Head Office
76 Midridge Close SE
Calgary, AB
T2X 1G1
351 Chemin Boulanger
Sutton, PQ
J0E 2K0
450 538-1270
1
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios
2
http://retireplan.about.com/od/401kplans/a/Solo-401-K-Contribution-Limits-2013.htm
3
http://riskwerk.com/2015/03/05/pi-the-razors-edge-the-market-bubble/
4
http://riskwerk.com/2013/08/10/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-3/
5
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stock-takers-2012-q1-bite-on-dji
6
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-case-for-the-can-opener-edufeb12
7
http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/10/pi-cppib-2nd-quarter/
8
http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/15/bn-cpwr-compuware-corporation/
9
http://riskwerk.com/2014/10/10/bn-the-stock-market-is-always-cheap/
10
https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi
11
http://riskwerk.com/2014/09/29/bn-blackrocks-broken-bond-market/
12
http://riskwerk.com/2012/09/22/popovicius-volatility/
13
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor
14
http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/
15
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios
16
“The Modal Geometry of the Firm and the Balance Sheet Worth of the Trading Connections”, 2006, unpublished but available
from the author.
17
http://riskwerk.com/2014/03/15/pi-the-process/

BlackSwanTradingTM 22oct15

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