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Gun control fact pack july 4, 2015
- 1. Gun Control or Portion Control? Facts on preventable causes of death and gun activity in the US for perspective and policy prioritization July 4, 2015 SavvyCitizen DRAFT
- 2. Contents Causes of death in the US Leading causes of preventable deaths in the US Percentage of gun homicides around the world Guns and suicides Gun ownership percentages vs homicide rates Gun homicides by victim type Causation vs Correlation Mass shootings
- 3. Causes of deaths in the US – 2010 (last year comprehensive data available) Heart Disease 24% Malignant Neoplasms 23% Chronic Respiratory 6% Cerebrovascula r disease 5% Accidents 5% Alzheimers 3% Diabetes 3% Nephritis+ 2% Influenza Pneumonia 2% Suicide 2% Septimicia 1% Liver disease 1% Hypertension 1% Parkinsons 1% Pneumonitis 1% Homicide, firearms 0% All other 19% CAUSES OF DEATH IN US Gun homicides were 8,775 Homicides with firearms accounted for less than 1% of total deaths… 0.36% of total 4.3x as many people kill themselves (using any means) as kill another person using a gun Deaths by firearm not one of the top 15 causes of death According to the CDC, the U.S. Center for Disease Control Sources: CDC 2010, FBI 2010 - https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.- 2010/tables/10shrtbl08.xls; http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr61/nvsr61_04.pdf
- 4. Leading causes of PREVENTABLE deaths in the US 448 435 112 85 75 55 43 41 30 20 17 11 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Deaths in '000s Gun Homicide Drug Abuse STDs Suicide Cancers Automobiles Toxins Diseases Alcohol Obesity Smoking Hospital error Gun deaths are less than 1%, 0.8%, of total preventable deaths ~11,100 homicides with guns per year (excluding suicide) ~10x as many people, 112,000, die from highly preventable complications due to obesity Traffic accidents kill about 4x as many people – 40K Smoking kills 40x as many people as guns Alcohol kills 8x as many If hospitals reduced their error rate by 10% they would save 4x as many lives if no one was killed by guns Notes: Suicide deaths extrapolated based on firearms participation of total suicides. Considerable controversy over total number of preventable deaths due to obesity and hospitals. See direct sources on wiki page. Sources: Wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preventable_causes_of_death , 2014 , CDC 2011
- 5. Gun deaths around the world The US has a substantially higher Gun Homicide Rate than most European and ‘industrial’ countries US has the ~15th highest per capita death rate by firearms! Of 72 countries with reliable data US has 3rd highest per capital gun homicide rate of top 45 industrial countries! US has about 10x the per capita homicide by guns rate as Italy! Sounds pretty bad! but… Incremental Gun Deaths in US are Negligible on both a percentage and absolute basis Annual Per Capita Gun Homicide rates as a percent: US – 0.000035 Italy – 0.0000036 France – 0.0000022 UK – 0.0000005 In other words… Out of 1 million citizens 33 more people are killed by guns per year in the US than in France - That’s a difference of 0.0000328% Notes: Data is from different years from 2004 – 2014 as available by country Sources: Wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate
- 6. Suicide & Guns, Compared Across Countries 44 29 25 20 19 15 12.3 12.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Suicides, selected countries Suicide Rate per 100,000 people, and Rank People kill people, guns are one tool of many available Very low gun ownership and restrictive gun laws in Japan and France don’t stop them having higher suicide rates than the US Perspective: ~2.5x as many people kill themselves as kill other people in the US In Japan the ratio is 66x! Homicide Rates per 100,000 people US – 111th country, 4.7 Japan 214th country, 0.3 France – 191st country, 1.0 Guyana, #1 South Korea, 2nd Russia, 14th Japan, 17th Finland, 33rd France, 47th US, 50th Sources: Wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate
- 7. Gun homicides by victim type Who actually gets killed by other people with guns? Based on media coverage you might think something like the following: Innocent children by angry adolescent crazies Innocent church-goers by crazies and bigots Innocent minorities by crazy angry racists Facts: Men (and boys) make up the vast majority (84% in 2010) of gun homicide victims. 18-40 year olds are 69% of victims. In reality, while the exact data is difficult to get, directional studies and analysis by the Federal government under Clinton and several university sociologists suggest the following: 60-80% of all gun homicide victims are either criminals with prior records or gang members – often both. So the easiest way you can drastically reduce your chances of not dying by gun are to A) not commit a crime B) not join a gang This doesn’t mean all those victims deserved to die. But there is a myth of many more ‘innocent bystanders’ being killed by guns which we should disillusion ourselves of Sources: Pew Research Center - http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/05/07/chapter-2-firearm-deaths/ FBI - https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s... Wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States
- 8. Gun ownership rates by race, age & gender vs gun homicide rates Gun Ownership by… (percent of people who own a gun) Race Black – 19% White - 40% Hispanic – 20% Age 18 – 29 – 26% 30 – 49 – 26% 50 – 64 – 40% 65+ - 40% Gender Men – 38% Women – 31% Sources: Pew Research Center - http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/05/07/chapter-2-firearm-deaths/; http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/07/15/the-demographics-and-politics-of-gun-owning-households/ FBI - https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s... Homicide rates by Offender Race – Black - 48.1% White – 47.8% Other – 4.1% Age Gender Men – 89% Women – 9% Unknown – 2% Homicide rates by Victim Race Black- 44% White – 52% Other – 4% Age Men - Women Unknown Gender Men – 84% Women – 15% Unknown – 1%
- 9. Demographic groups with high gun ownership rates have lower homicide rates Sources: Pew Research Center - http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/05/07/chapter-2-firearm-deaths/; http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/07/15/the-demographics-and-politics-of-gun-owning-households/ FBI - https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s... Gender Women own guns at almost the same rate as men (31 vs 38%) yet commit less than 10% of gun homicides Age Older people, 50+ are more likely to own a gun (40% do), but are least likely to die by gun homicides (less than 1/3 as many homicide victims as those aged 18-40) Race Blacks own guns at less than half the rate that whites do (19 vs 40%) yet are more than 4 times as likely to commit a gun homicide 91% of black homicide victims were killed by blacks 84% of white homicide victims were killed by whites
- 10. Mass shootings incidence – Very low 0.2 - 0.8% (less than 1%) of gun homicides had 3 or more victims annually over the last 15 years according to the FBI Deaths from mass shootings are a relatively small share of firearm homicides – less than 1% of total homicide deaths According to a recent Congressional Research Service report (Congressional Research Service, 2013), 78 public mass shootings occurred in the United States from 1983 through 2012, claiming 547 lives and injuring 476 people. In total over 30 year period accounts for about 5% of total homicides in one year Sources: Pew Research Center - http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/05/07/chapter-2-firearm-deaths/ FBI - https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2014/september/fbi-releases-study-on-active-shooter-incidents/pdfs/a- study-of-active-shooter-incidents-in-the-u.s.-between-2000-and-2013
- 11. Causation vs correlation – how statistics are easy to misunderstand and misuse Some studies have shown that states where there are more absolute numbers of guns there are more gun deaths. Does that mean that having guns around causes people to kill each other with them? Or does it mean that in states where more people want to kill each other, they buy and own more guns? Or does it mean that states with bigger populations, have more guns, and more deaths by guns? Anyone who has taken basic college or high school level statistics and science has been taught the difference between causation and correlation But it is easy to forget and easy for media and activists to deliberately mislead to make their partisan point In the example above, image a simple scenario without only 2 states, one that is large, most people live in cities, and has high crime rate – we’ll call it New York. And one that has small population, mostly rural, and low crime. We’ll call it Alaska. Alaska could have twice as many guns per capita, but many fewer guns in total because of its smaller population. Activists could correctly point out that New York has more total guns, and more murders committed by guns. But obviously the more likely statisctical explanation is that because New York has BOTH more people AND more guns, there will of course be more deaths by guns in New York. So saying that ‘more guns causes more gun murders’ would be a false conclusion
- 12. Policy thoughts… The government and concerned citizens have at least 14 other causes of preventable death that if addressed would save many more lives than limiting access to guns Maybe controlling guns, tools, is not the most effective way to reduce innocent victims of homicides. Perhaps, solving the underlying causes/issues that cause people to WANT to KILL people would be more effective in the medium to long term. Perhaps giving better education, improving the economy and enabling more people to have stable productive jobs, improving the imparting of positive social values through strong families and communities, improving mental health screening and habilitation could all save more innocent lives than controlling one particular tool that can kill.
- 13. Sources Pew Research http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/05/07/chapter-2-firearm-deaths/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/07/15/the-demographics-and-politics-of-gun- owning-households/ FBI https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/10shrtbl08.xls https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s... https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2014/september/fbi-releases-study-on-active-shooter-incidents/pdfs/a- study-of-active-shooter-incidents-in-the-u.s.-between-2000-and-2013 CDC http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr61/nvsr61_04.pdf Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preventable_causes_of_death
- 14. APPENDIX
- 15. Other Cities Why do cities with the highest per capita gun ownership rates like Plano, Texas have some of the lowest gun homicide rates? Why do many of the cities with the strictest gun control laws, like Detroit, Baltimore, and Oakland have the highest gun homicide rates?