2. A History of Longevity Concerns
• Tontines (developed in the 1600’s) – Individuals would invest and
participate as part of a pooled “annuity”. As participants passed
away, those remaining received a proportionate increase in income.
• With actuarial advancements, modern day Tontines are issued by
insurance carriers and are commonly known as single premium
immediate annuities (SPIA) and deferred income annuities (DIA).
• These tools are generally purchased with a lump sum of assets and to
generate a fixed amount of income immediately (SPIA) or at some
point in the future (DIA). Income is derived through a combination of
return of principal as well as a prescribed crediting of interest and
mortality components.
3. DIA Developments
• Growing Demand
• Sales: $1 billion in 2012, Almost $1 billion a quarter in 2015
• Received Regulatory Blessing:
• QLAC regulation passed in 2014 – Over a dozen offerings available today
• Focus of Research
• ValMark & University of Akron Published Article in 2013
• Wade Pfau Ph. D., CFA
• Professor of Retirement Income at American College
• Why Retirees should choose DIAs over SPIAs – September 2013
• Reduce Retirement Costs with Deferred Income Annuity – July 2015
• Milliman Financial Risk Management
• Global leader in financial risk management providing investment advisory, hedging, and consulting services
on $150 billion of global assets (as of 2014)
• The Six Percent Rule – August 2014
• Moshe Milevsky Ph. D.
• York University in Toronto. He has published 12 books, over 60 peer-reviewed articles and is on the editorial
board of numerous scholarly journals.
• Bonding with Deferred Income Annuities – 2015
• Optimal Purchasing of Deferred Income Annuities When Payout Yields are Mean-Reverting - 2015
4. Ruin Minimization
Moshe Milevsky has written multiple articles on the concept of “ruin
minimization.” This is a concept of predicting the probability of
retirement ruin based on various attributes of a client’s retirement plan
including: remaining life span, average return, standard deviation, and
spending rate.
A DIA can be used to decrease the probability of ruin by reducing and
defining the average lifespan of the portfolio by setting an end date on
retirement and relieving pressure on the investment portfolio by
decreasing required returns and risk.
5. Setting an End Date
• Younger, healthier, individuals can use DIAs to provide significant income to
offset retirement needs beginning at ages as late as 85. This allows planning
strategies utilized on remaining assets to incorporate finite timeframes.
• (Ages 65 - 85 = 20 Years)
• Furthermore, DIAs provide stability for the plan in place of traditional fixed
income investments that are subject to rising interest rate risks, allowing the
current portfolio to be skewed toward growth investments.
6. Planning over Shorter Time Horizons
Planning over a 20 year time
frame is proven to have a better
success rate than planning over
a 30 year time frame
Source: T. Rowe Price, http://individual.troweprice.com/retail/pages/retail/applications/investorMag/2015/spring/cover-story/index.jsp
7.
8. Average Return and Standard Deviation
• In today’s low interest rate environment, DIAs can help supplement
fixed income yields due to the mortality component of their payouts.
• DIAs generate competitive long term IRRs on expected cash flows,
alleviating inflation and longevity risks in retirement.
• Example: Male age 65 invests in DIA to generate income from 85+
• Live to Age 90 – IRR on investment 4.18%
• Live to age 95 – IRR on investment 6.80%
• Live to age 100 – IRR on investment 7.90%
9. Portfolio Analysis
• Married couple (each age 65)
• Current portfolio of $2.5M
• Gross annual income needs of $100,000, adjusted for inflation at 3%
• Reduced to $75,000 after first death.
• Life Expectancy:
• Male Age 88, Female Age 95 (Joint Life Expectancy)
• Male Age 95, Female Age 100 (25% Probability of Survival Post Joint Life Expectancy)
• Male Age 99, Female Age 102 (10% Probability of Survival Post Joint Life Expectancy)
• Clients live to age 100
• Investment Scenarios:
• Default – All retirement funds held in a diversified Traditional Portfolio
• Alternative – Purchased a DIA (joint life with 50% survivor) with a portion of the
Traditional Portfolio with income commencing at age 85
* This case study is hypothetical in nature
Goal: Examine how much return is needed from the
retirement portfolio in order to make plan sustainable.
15. Disclosures
3 The asset allocations include short-term bonds: 60/40 includes 60% stocks, 30% bonds, and 10% short-term bonds; 40/60 includes 40% stocks, 40% bonds, and 20% short-term bonds; and 20/80
is composed of 20% stocks, 50% bonds, and 30% short-term bonds.
4 T. Rowe Price has analyzed a variety of retirement spending strategies using computer simulations to determine the likelihood of “success” (having at least $1 remaining in the portfolio at the
end of the retirement period) for each strategy shown as percentages in the How Much Can You Spend in Retirement? table. The analysis for each retirement strategy is based on running 10,000
hypothetical potential market scenarios that account for a wide variety of return possibilities. The initial withdrawal amount is the percentage of assets withdrawn at the beginning of the first year
of retirement. The annual amount withdrawn is increased by 3% each year for inflation. Investment scenarios are based on hypothetical (not historical) annual rates of return for the three asset
classes represented in the portfolio mixes. The compound annual growth rate assumptions of 8.0% for stocks, 5.3% for bonds, and 4.4% for short-term bonds are based on our best estimates for
future long-term periods. These examples only present a range of possible outcomes. Actual results will vary, and such results may be better or worse than the simulation scenarios.
This study is hypothetical in nature and does not provide legal, tax, or account advice.
Any tax advice contained herein is of a general nature. Further, you should seek specific tax advice from your tax professional before pursuing any idea contemplated herein. This advice is being
provided solely as an incidental service to our business as (insurance professionals, financial planner, investment advisor, securities broker)
Securities Offered Through ValMark Securities, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC
Investment Advisory Services offered through ValMark Advisers, Inc. a SEC Registered Investment Advisor.
130 Springside Drive, Suite 300 Akron, Ohio 44333-2431 1-800-765-5201 V.5.2016