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Simon
Property
Group
Contact:
Jianhao Michael Zeng
M.S. in Real Estate Finance
Class of 2015
NYUSchack Institute of Real Estate
michael.j.zeng@nyu.edu
347-997-0664
SPG Overview
• Largest REIT in World by both Market Cap ($64.9b) and
Total Cap ($92.7b)
• 1,915% Total Return since IPO in 1993
• Interest in More than 350 Properties
• Located in North America, Europe & Asia
Globally Recognize
Management Team
Costs of Asset Classes
4.78%
7.25%
6.75%
6.13%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
Debt Preferred
Stock
Common
Stock
WACC
Corporate Debt
- Rated AA
- Weighted Average Interest of Debt – 4.78%
- Weighted Average Years to Maturity – 5.5
22%
51%
27% Equity
Secured Debt
(Mortgage)
Unsecured Debt
(Corporate Debt)
Debt Maturity Schedule (In thousand)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 After
2024
Total Secured Debt Expiration Total Unsecured Debt Expiration
2010 Bond Issuance
• Trades at a Premium - $116
• 5.62% Annual Coupon
• Matures in 2020
• Absolute Spread over 5-YR Treasury – 389 bps
• Relative Spread over 5-YR Treasury – 225 bps
New Price (IRR) – 50 BPS
• Current Spread – 76 bps
• New Required Return – 2.99%
• New Price of Bond - $113.25
New Price (Duration) – 50 BPS
• Formula = (126.32-114.67)/(2*116*.0005)
• Duration is 10 (I-Rate Risk)
• 50 BPS Increase – 5% Drop in Price
Preferred Shares
• Only 255k of Preferred Shares Outstanding
• Less than 1% of SPG’s Capital Structure
• Redemption Price - $100
• Issue Quarterly Distributions @ 7.5% Annual Rate
Development & Redevelopment
• Spend $500m to $1b Annually
7%
12%
10%
19%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Mall
Redevelopments
Premium Outlet
Redevelopment
New Premium
Outlet
Mills
Redevelopment
Projected IRR for each type of invesment
Asia Investment
• JV with Mitsubishi Estate Co. in Japan
• JV with Shinsegae in South Korea
Macerich
• Simon has disclosed that it accumulated a 3.6% stake or
5.71M shares in Macerich and noted that it "may" request that
Macerich waive its excess share provision of 5%.
• Macerich disclosed on 11/17 that it had waived that provision
for Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) in connection with
Macerich's acquisition of Ontario Teachers' 49% stakes in five
major malls.
• After the deal between OTPP and Macerich, SPG share is
3.39% and now with the 5% excess share provision from
MAC, SPG will have the opportunity to acquire 8.417 million
shares before triggering the excess share provision.
Klépierre
• 21% ownership stake
• 300 shopping centers in over 15 countries
• Investing in emerging markets i.e. Poland, Czech Republic,
Slovakia, Slovenia & Hungary
• Divesting away from Southern Europe
• Formed strategic partnerships with Zara, Mango, H&M and
Sephora
Retail Sector
• Forecasted to improve throughout the end of 2014 and into
2015
• Strong organic growth through higher occupancies and
increasing rents
• Retailers efficiently utilizing space
• Total portfolio sales increased 3.5% y-o-y
WPG Spin-Off
• Spun-Off all of its 98 strip-center businesses
• New REIT – Washington Prime Group
• Only contributed 3.5% of NOI
• Majority of locations in depressed markets
• Since Spin-Off, stock price fell by more than 25%
Mergers & Acquisitions
• SPG has engaged in M &A with a number of companies
including:
 Gallerie Commerciali Italia S.p.A.
 Silver Sands Factory Stores
 Paragon Outlets Grand Prairie
 Paragon Outlets Livermore Valley
 Arizona Mills
 Klépierre
JV and Accessing Capital
• In 2007, SPG accessed capital from Farrallon Capital to
acquire a stake in Mills Corp, REIT.
• Engaged in atleast 6 Joint Ventures that both acquire and
develop new properties
 MacAruthurGlen
 Klepierre
 Auchin S.A.
 Institutional Mall Investors (IMI)
 Mitsubishi Estate Co. Ltd.
 Shinsegae International Co.
FFO
• FY13 - $3.2b (increase from $2.8b FY12)
• FFO – $689m in 3Q14
• 14% increase y-o-y after debt retirement
• FY13 FFO/share – $8.85, record for REIT industry!
• FY14 FFO/share - $9.25
Annual FFO Growth
• Year 2018 forecasted to be 25% higher than 2014
$3,357,696
$3,536,561
$3,930,483 $4,021,903
$4,189,873
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
$4,500,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Forecast FFO (in thousand)
AFFO/CAD
• FY13 - $2.8b
• FY14 - $3.1b
• FY14 AFFO/share - $8.50
• FY16 AFFO/share - $10.11
Annual ROA
• SPG purchasing and developing profitable properties
• Able to increase net income in greater proportion to value
of assets
19.00% 19.50% 20.00% 20.50% 21.00% 21.50% 22.00% 22.50% 23.00%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Annual ROA forecast
Debt/Total Capital
• FY14 Debt/Cap – 29%
• Dramatically decreasing from 2014 to 2018
• Retirement of two largest debt issuance (2016 and 2018)
serve as catalyst
IRR Comparison
• YTD Return:
• Total XIRR if purchased on Mar 09, 2009
 SPG: 44.09%
 GGP: 157.45%
37.40%
36.27%
YTD Return
GGP SPG
More Return Comparison
Dividend,
11.36%
Capital Gain,
88.64%
SPG
Dividend Capital Gain
Dividend, 7.86%
Capital Gain,
92.71%
GGP
Dividend Capital Gain
Comparable
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
SPG GGP
Dividend Yield
29%
52.53%
32%
45%
46.15%
33%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Debt/Capital
Dividend Payout Ratio
Y-O-Y Total Return
SPG GGP
FY14 FFO/Share $8.85 $1.30
P/FFO 19.6x 20.7x
Trading to NAV 1.54% -4.96%
Analyst Opinion
14
13 13
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Three Months Ago Two Months Ago Last Month Current Month
NumberofRecommendation
Analyst Opinion about SPG
Strong Buy Buy Hold Underperform/Sell
Conclusion
• P/FFO multiple of 19.6x vs. 18.8x
• Predominant Institutional Ownership i.e. Cohen & Steers,
Fidelity, T. Rowe Price

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REIT_SPG_Jianhao Zeng

  • 1. Simon Property Group Contact: Jianhao Michael Zeng M.S. in Real Estate Finance Class of 2015 NYUSchack Institute of Real Estate michael.j.zeng@nyu.edu 347-997-0664
  • 2. SPG Overview • Largest REIT in World by both Market Cap ($64.9b) and Total Cap ($92.7b) • 1,915% Total Return since IPO in 1993 • Interest in More than 350 Properties • Located in North America, Europe & Asia
  • 4. Costs of Asset Classes 4.78% 7.25% 6.75% 6.13% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% Debt Preferred Stock Common Stock WACC
  • 5. Corporate Debt - Rated AA - Weighted Average Interest of Debt – 4.78% - Weighted Average Years to Maturity – 5.5 22% 51% 27% Equity Secured Debt (Mortgage) Unsecured Debt (Corporate Debt)
  • 6. Debt Maturity Schedule (In thousand) 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 After 2024 Total Secured Debt Expiration Total Unsecured Debt Expiration
  • 7. 2010 Bond Issuance • Trades at a Premium - $116 • 5.62% Annual Coupon • Matures in 2020 • Absolute Spread over 5-YR Treasury – 389 bps • Relative Spread over 5-YR Treasury – 225 bps
  • 8. New Price (IRR) – 50 BPS • Current Spread – 76 bps • New Required Return – 2.99% • New Price of Bond - $113.25
  • 9. New Price (Duration) – 50 BPS • Formula = (126.32-114.67)/(2*116*.0005) • Duration is 10 (I-Rate Risk) • 50 BPS Increase – 5% Drop in Price
  • 10. Preferred Shares • Only 255k of Preferred Shares Outstanding • Less than 1% of SPG’s Capital Structure • Redemption Price - $100 • Issue Quarterly Distributions @ 7.5% Annual Rate
  • 11. Development & Redevelopment • Spend $500m to $1b Annually 7% 12% 10% 19% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Mall Redevelopments Premium Outlet Redevelopment New Premium Outlet Mills Redevelopment Projected IRR for each type of invesment
  • 12. Asia Investment • JV with Mitsubishi Estate Co. in Japan • JV with Shinsegae in South Korea
  • 13. Macerich • Simon has disclosed that it accumulated a 3.6% stake or 5.71M shares in Macerich and noted that it "may" request that Macerich waive its excess share provision of 5%. • Macerich disclosed on 11/17 that it had waived that provision for Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) in connection with Macerich's acquisition of Ontario Teachers' 49% stakes in five major malls. • After the deal between OTPP and Macerich, SPG share is 3.39% and now with the 5% excess share provision from MAC, SPG will have the opportunity to acquire 8.417 million shares before triggering the excess share provision.
  • 14. Klépierre • 21% ownership stake • 300 shopping centers in over 15 countries • Investing in emerging markets i.e. Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia & Hungary • Divesting away from Southern Europe • Formed strategic partnerships with Zara, Mango, H&M and Sephora
  • 15. Retail Sector • Forecasted to improve throughout the end of 2014 and into 2015 • Strong organic growth through higher occupancies and increasing rents • Retailers efficiently utilizing space • Total portfolio sales increased 3.5% y-o-y
  • 16. WPG Spin-Off • Spun-Off all of its 98 strip-center businesses • New REIT – Washington Prime Group • Only contributed 3.5% of NOI • Majority of locations in depressed markets • Since Spin-Off, stock price fell by more than 25%
  • 17. Mergers & Acquisitions • SPG has engaged in M &A with a number of companies including:  Gallerie Commerciali Italia S.p.A.  Silver Sands Factory Stores  Paragon Outlets Grand Prairie  Paragon Outlets Livermore Valley  Arizona Mills  Klépierre
  • 18. JV and Accessing Capital • In 2007, SPG accessed capital from Farrallon Capital to acquire a stake in Mills Corp, REIT. • Engaged in atleast 6 Joint Ventures that both acquire and develop new properties  MacAruthurGlen  Klepierre  Auchin S.A.  Institutional Mall Investors (IMI)  Mitsubishi Estate Co. Ltd.  Shinsegae International Co.
  • 19. FFO • FY13 - $3.2b (increase from $2.8b FY12) • FFO – $689m in 3Q14 • 14% increase y-o-y after debt retirement • FY13 FFO/share – $8.85, record for REIT industry! • FY14 FFO/share - $9.25
  • 20. Annual FFO Growth • Year 2018 forecasted to be 25% higher than 2014 $3,357,696 $3,536,561 $3,930,483 $4,021,903 $4,189,873 $0 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 $4,000,000 $4,500,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Forecast FFO (in thousand)
  • 21. AFFO/CAD • FY13 - $2.8b • FY14 - $3.1b • FY14 AFFO/share - $8.50 • FY16 AFFO/share - $10.11
  • 22. Annual ROA • SPG purchasing and developing profitable properties • Able to increase net income in greater proportion to value of assets 19.00% 19.50% 20.00% 20.50% 21.00% 21.50% 22.00% 22.50% 23.00% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Annual ROA forecast
  • 23. Debt/Total Capital • FY14 Debt/Cap – 29% • Dramatically decreasing from 2014 to 2018 • Retirement of two largest debt issuance (2016 and 2018) serve as catalyst
  • 24. IRR Comparison • YTD Return: • Total XIRR if purchased on Mar 09, 2009  SPG: 44.09%  GGP: 157.45% 37.40% 36.27% YTD Return GGP SPG
  • 25. More Return Comparison Dividend, 11.36% Capital Gain, 88.64% SPG Dividend Capital Gain Dividend, 7.86% Capital Gain, 92.71% GGP Dividend Capital Gain
  • 26. Comparable 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% SPG GGP Dividend Yield 29% 52.53% 32% 45% 46.15% 33% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Debt/Capital Dividend Payout Ratio Y-O-Y Total Return SPG GGP FY14 FFO/Share $8.85 $1.30 P/FFO 19.6x 20.7x Trading to NAV 1.54% -4.96%
  • 27. Analyst Opinion 14 13 13 14 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Three Months Ago Two Months Ago Last Month Current Month NumberofRecommendation Analyst Opinion about SPG Strong Buy Buy Hold Underperform/Sell
  • 28. Conclusion • P/FFO multiple of 19.6x vs. 18.8x • Predominant Institutional Ownership i.e. Cohen & Steers, Fidelity, T. Rowe Price

Editor's Notes

  1. Daniel
  2. Daniel
  3. Jianhao
  4. Jianhao
  5. Jianhao
  6. Steven
  7. Steven
  8. Steven
  9. Steven
  10. Daniel
  11. Daniel
  12. Daniel
  13. Andrew
  14. Andrew
  15. Andrew
  16. Andrew
  17. Andrew
  18. Steven
  19. Steven
  20. Steven
  21. Steven
  22. Steven
  23. Jianhao
  24. Jianhao
  25. Steven
  26. Steven
  27. Steven