2. Conflicts are there on India and Pakistan border since 1947
Pakistan has attacked India
India has 2 options
Major Retaliation
Minor Defensive/No response
If India retaliates, Pakistan can attack again(the probability of Pakistan
attacking again is 0.4)
Both India and Pakistan are rational players
India can go in the war with 5 different levels, each level has its own cost
and benefit for both the countries
3. Pakistan has already attacked India- we do not consider the cost/damage incurred
by Pakistan and India at this stage
The costs break up provided are assumed as the total maximum cost; costs for
other levels are taken as a percentage of this (20%of maximum cost for level 1 and
so on)
India and Pakistan fight the war at the same level of intensity (If India goes for level
1, Pakistan also goes for level 1)
Benefit to a country is a function of damage to other country, casualties of the other
country and compensation received
Cost incurred by a country are Military expenditures, causalities, damaged cause by
another country and compensation paid
Benefits should be maximized
Casualties should be minimized
Deadly weapons should be avoided
Cost should be minimized
4. If India decides to go for war:
1. Level 1: It will not be in India’s benefit. Pakistan will be in benefit, casualties for India
will be 20,000
2. Level 2: India will be at benefit only if Pakistan do not retaliate, but Pak will retaliate to
minimize its losses, India will be at benefit, India’s casualties 140,000
3. Level 3: India will be at benefit & wins war whether Pakistan retaliates or not, But
Pakistan will retaliate to minimize its losses, India’s casualties 352,000
4. Level 4:India will be at benefit & wins war whether Pakistan retaliates or not, But
Pakistan will retaliate to minimize its losses, India’s casualties 482,000
5. Level 5:India will be at benefit & wins war whether Pakistan retaliates or not, But
Pakistan will not retaliate to minimize its losses, India’s casualties 251,000 (less than
level 3).
It is unlikely that India will use Nuke in level 5 because the marginal gain is very small
compared to overall gain
If India do not go in war, it will not gain anything and Pakistan will continue to attack. In
this case India should do following things:
Build strong defense so that Pakistan do not think of attacking
Let Pakistan knows that if it attacks, India will win the war under all circumstances
Diplomatic ties, more trade
5. If India goes in war, Pakistan should retaliate in every level of war except fifth.
In level 1 & 2 if it retaliates it will be able to make loses to India, such that India is at
loss
In level 5, it is better for Pakistan not to retaliate
Knowing that India will go in war and can impact it at very large, it should not go into
war with India. It cannot win war unless and until India decides to go in level 1 & 2,
which is unlikely
