Excerpt from Grey Food Trends study "Holistic Food". Focussing on effect of recession on food industry and grocery stores.

1. GREY Food Trends 2009 GREY Food Trends Holistic Food

2. Outlook 2009 The "Credit Crunch Cuisine"

5. Food and household products resist the recession Premier Foods sales: +10% in the second half of 2008 Largest British food producer Source: The Guardian 2008

6. Recessions trends 2009 1. The food industry defies the crisis 2. Consumers cut on restaurant spendings

7. The situation is getting serious British pubs have lowest beer sales since the “Great Depression ” Beer sales in supermarkets and kiosks rise by 4% Source: British Beer Barometer 2008

8. Restaurants pay the price Technomic foodservice consultancy Forecast USA: Fullservice Restaurants: -6,0% Quick Service Restaurants: +/- 0 Source: Penton Business Media 2009

9. Recession trends 2009 1. The food industry defies the crisis 2. Going out becomes an opportunity for savings 3. Consumers retreat to their homes

10. Staying in is the new going out Lovefilm DVD Rental has 40% more members since summer 2007 Source: The Observer, Jan 2009

11. Success of premium ready meals as a restaurant substitution Source: The Observer, Jan 2009, Technioom 2009 Waitrose "As good as going out", sales: +30% in 2008 Ready meals growth USA 2008: +6%

12. Commuters are learning to prepare a lunchbox Source: timesonline.co.uk, Sept 2008 Tupperware lunch box : +40% Sandwich bag sales: +34% Thermos flask sales : +100% Sainsbury‘s sales numbers year to year Sept 2008

13. Recession trends 2009 1. The food industry defies the crisis 2. Going out becomes an opportunity for savings 3. Consumers retreat to their homes 4. Consumers seek savings without compromising on quality

14. Two phases of the credit crunch down grade „ In past times it served as a restaurant substitute when consumers were under spending pressure, but increasingly the mainstream supermarkets compete effectively on premium ranges" Sir Stuart Rose Executive Chairman, Waitrose

15. Private premium labels under increasing price pressure Spectacular success of Marks & Spencer "Dine for Two for 10 Pounds" promotional campaign Copy of the campaign by Waitrose: Plus bottle of wine on top

16. Mainstream private labels were starting the price battle "Feed Your Family For a Fiver” campaign by Sainsbury's discount chain. Weekly planner sends online recipes with cheap meal suggestions. Large sales increase after each recipe suggestion: e.g. +300% sausage sales

17. Recession trends 2009 1. The food industry defies the crisis 2. Going out becomes an opportunity for savings 3. Consumers Retreat to their Homes 4. Consumer seek savings without compromising on quality 5. The better world has to wait for better times

18. Consumers replace premium fruit juices by premium private labels Innocent Smoothies Sales: -20% between April 2008 and Sept 2008 Main competitor PJ Smoothies lost even more. Source: Drink Business Review, Dez 2008

19. „ Deep greens“ stay loyal to organic, „Light Greens“ change sides UK organic Nov 2008: +2% year to Year (Nov 2007 +16%) U.S. organic Dec 2008: +5,8% year to year (Dec 2007 +27%) German organic Dec 2008: +10% year to year (Dec 2007 +14%) Source: BOLW, Nielsen in Reuters News Jan 2009

20. Local production becomes more relevant than organic Consumers who prefer locally produced food, almost doubled in the last year to 27%. Consumer who are preferring organic decreases from 24% (Jan 2008) to 19% (Jan 2009) IGD Shopper Trends 2009 Source: Igd.com, Jan 2009

21. Recessions trends 2009 1. The food industry defies the crisis 2. Going out becomes an opportunity for savings 3. Consumers retreat to their homes 4. Consumer seek savings without compromising on quality 5. The better world has to wait for better times 6. In bad times consumers turn to nostalgic worlds

22. Success Formula for 2009: comfort, nostalgia and humor Grocery Magazine Top 14 Food Brands 2008 "Brands that offer comfort and nostalgia thrive in a tough climate as well as brands that have humour.“ Claire Nuttall, Grocery Magazine Source: Grocery Magazine Top Brands 2008

24. Longing for homeland and familiarity . Source: Grocery Magazine Top Brands 2008 Walker crisps has been part of British snack culture for generations 2008-2009 sales growth by 9.5%

25. British tradition offers orientation to UK consumers Hovis Bread is positioned as part of British history 13% sales growth in 2008 Source: The Guardian 2008

26. Recession trends 2009 1. The food industry defies the crisis 2. Going out becomes an opportunity for savings 3. Consumers retreat to their homes 4. Consumer seek savings without compromising on quality 5. The better world has to wait for better times 6. In bad times consumers escape in nostalgic retro worlds 7. Consumers are looking for comfort in “good mood food”

27. Rescession food has to balance moods and feelings UK chocolate sales rise by 42% (Aug 2008 to Nov 2008) Source: The Sun, Nov 2008

28. The end of lifestyle advertising and comeback of sentimentality “ Open Happiness” replaces “Coke Side of Life” Focus on basic product line in US. Coke wants to offer a small time out from the sorrows of the recession. Source: Associated Press Jan 2009

29. How to navigate a food brand through the recession? In a climate of crisis, food brands have to offer an immaterial value to a sentimental consumer who is longing for security, simplicity and comfort.

30. Bon Appetit!

31. Bibliography FOOD TREND STUDIES An appetit of change – Food & Beverage 2012, Deloitte, 2207; http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/An%20appetite%20for%20chang.pdf Branchenbild - Ernährungsgewohnheiten und –trends , Gruner + Jahr Marktanalyse, 2006; http://www.guj.de/ Consumers‘ Choice ’07 – Wellfood trend drives food markets, BVE in Kooperation mit der Gfk, 2007; http://www.bveonline.de/presseservice/veroeffentlichungen/consumers_choice2007/ Ernährungstrends , Axel Springer AG, 2005; http://www.mediapilot.de/images/20050531/Ernaehrungstrends_05.pdf Food and beverage 2012, Deloitte, 2008; http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/Food%20and%20beverage%202012_web.pdf Food Styles , Anja Kirig Mag. Hanni Rützler, Zukunfts Institut, 2007; http://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/verlag/studien_detail.php?nr=60 Food Trends 2000 , Grey, 1994 Food-Trends 2005 – Basisdaten für Kommunikationsstrategien , Hubert Burda, 2005; Food Trends 2015: Mit „MehrWert in die Zukunft“ , BBE, 2008; http://www.bbe-retail-experts.com Food Trends und Verbraucherverhalten vor dem Hintergrund gesellschaftlicher Entwicklung am Beispiel der Kartoffel, CMA, 2006; http://www.smul.sachsen.de/de/wu/Landwirtschaft/download/Sulzer_CMA_Nossen_2006.pdf Food-Trends - Trends und Entwicklungen in den Bereichen Food und Ernährungsverhalten“ , GIM Argo, 2004; http://www.gimargo.de/index/modul/portal/kernwert/print_aktuelles_de/block/catalogue_1/show/0/search//cmd/catalogue_details/field/6 „ Nationale Verzehrs Studie II“ , Bundesforschungsinstitut für Ernährung und Lebensmittel, 2008 http://www.bmelv.de/DE/03-Ernaehrung/04-Forschung/NationaleVerzehrsstudie /NVS2__node.html Produktvielfalt und –information - Entwicklungen und Trends im Lebensmittelangebot“, Gfk im Auftrag von BLL, 2008; http://www.bll.de/download/themen/naehrwertinformation.html/20080415_gfk_broschuere/ Trendstudie Food – Gesellschaftlicher Wandel und seine Wirkung auf den Foodbereich , ZMP in Kooperation mit CMA, 2006; http://www.zmp.de/shop/mafo_inland/trendstudie_Food_k671.asp What’s Hot around the Globe: Insights on Growth in Food & Beverages , ACNielsen, 2004; http://www2.acnielsen.com/reports/documents/2004_whatshot_food-bev.pdf HEALTH Connecting the dots between food and health, The Coca-Cola Company, 2008; http://www.coke.net The top ten – Functional Food Trends , A. Elizabeth Sloan, 2008; http://members.ift.org/NR/rdonlyres/504BC1ED-53DC-4A67-88A7-EC560ACF28BE/0/0406topten.pdf

32. Organic Food Biomilch bei McDonald’s & Co. , Julia Leendertse, Handelsblatt, 05.08.2007, Seite 5; http://www.engels-kerzen.de/Infos/handelsblatt-August07.pdf Bio-Nahrungsmittel , Dialego AG, 2006 http://www2.dialego.de/uploads/media/051027DD_Bio-Nahrungsmittel_02.pdf Bio+pro , Zielgruppen für den Biolebensmittelmarkt, ISOE, 2003 http://orgprints.org/4554/02/4554-02OE330-2003-biopro-praesentation.pdf Zwischen Discount und Premium: Gerät Bio zwischen die Fronten? , Prof. Dr. Achim Spiller, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen , 2007; http://www.uni-goettingen.de/de/34022.html CONVENIENCE/ CHILLED FOOD Chilled Food im Außer-Haus-MarktErfolgsplattform für regionalen Handel und Verwender, CMA, 2005; Convenience: Tante Emma kehrt zurück , akzente 02/07, McKinsey&Company, 2007; http://www.mckinsey.de/downloads/publikation/akzente/2007/akzente_0702_tanteemma.pdf Globaler Trend , Nielsen Consumer Insighths, 2007; http://www2.acnielsen.com/insights/index.shtml Communication Heißgetränke – Bericht über Kommunikation in Internetforen, Burder Community Network; http://www.burda.de/hps/upload/hxmedia/hbmi/HBohqrXx.pdf Innovation der Medien, IBM, 2008; http://www-05.ibm.com/de/pressroom/downloads/medienstudie-2008.pdf Neue Marktsicht , ACNielsen Consumer Insights, 2007; http://de.nielsen.com/pubs/documents/ACNielsenConsumerInsightsAusgabe2_2007.pdf The future of advertising is now, strategy+business issue 43, 2008; http://www.strategy-business.com/press/16635507/06204 Trust in Advertising , ACNielsen, 2007 http://www2.acnielsen.com/reports/documents/TrustinAdvertisingOct07.pdf Word of Mouth – Basic Training“, Womma, 2006; http://www.womma.org/wombat/presentations/womma_wombat_carson.pdf Consumer Changing Lifestyles – Changing Marketplace - The UK Experience, TNS, 2006; Der gesellschaftliche Wandel generiert neue Zielgruppen , AWA, 2008; http://www.awa-online.de/main.php?selection=95&rubrik=0 Der Konsum muss endlich kommen , GfK Consumer Index, 2007; http://www.gfk.com/imperia/md/content/ps_de/consumerindex/ci_09-2007.pdf Karma-Kapitalismus - Werte statt Preise , Trendbüro, 2007; http://www.trendbuero.de/index.php?f_tag=karma%20kapitalismus Greendotcom , Zukunftsinstitut, 2008; http://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/verlag/medien_detail.php?nr=23

33. Greenstyle report - Die Zielgruppe der LOHAS verstehen , Burda Research & Development, 2007; www.hbm-marcom.de/hps/upload/hxmedia/hbmi/HXMEDIA19831media_file.pdf Karma-Kapitalismus - Werte statt Preise , Trendbüro, 2007; http://www.trendbuero.de/index.php?f_tag=karma%20kapitalismus LOHAS - Lifestyle of Health and Sustainability , Ernst&Young, 2007; http://www.ey.com/Global/assets.nsf/Germany/Studie_RCP_LOHAS_2007/$file/Studie_RCP_LOHAS_2007.pdf Megatrend Nachhaltigkeit - Marktpotenziale von LOHAS & Co. , Universität Hohenheim, 2008; https://umho.uni-hohenheim.de Tracing the Future of Consumption - The Fragmentation of Societies and its Implications for Business Strategies , Deutsche Bank AG, 2007; http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000207933.pdf Von der Ich-AG zur modernen „Über-Ich“-Gesellschaft - Chancen und Grenzen der neuen Werte- und Ethik-Trends“ , rheingold, 2008; www.bve-online.de/download/download/vortrag_loenneker/ POS Der Shopper 2006 am POS , IRI, 2006; http://www.procarton.de/download/633fd5d8e9f5ec7720b1ad512614a143/iri-studie.pdf Shopper Marketing: Capturing a Shopper’s Mind, Heart and Wallet , Deloitte, 2007; http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/us_cpg_ShopperMarketingStudy_2007opt.pdf Universen - 2007 Handel und Verbraucher in Deutschland , Nielsen, 2007; http://de.nielsen.com/site/documents/Universen07.pdf PRODUCT INNOVATIONEN Die Milliarden-Chance der Marke. Erfahrungswerte erfolgreicher Innovationen, Serviceplan, 2006; http://wirkstoff.tv/fileadmin/user/daten/wirkungstag-pdf/Haller.pdf

34. Contact Alessandro Panella Head of Strategic Planning Grey Worldwide GmbH Platz der Ideen 1 40476 Düsseldorf T +49.211.3807-444 M +49.172-663-4941 alessandro.panella@grey.de Sebastian Brunner Strategic Planner Grey Worldwide GmbH Platz der Ideen 1 40476 Düsseldorf T +49.211.3807-7614 F +49.211.3807-367 [email_address]

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