The document summarizes a research project conducted by NIES that developed scenarios for a low-carbon society in Japan by 2050. Over 60 researchers from various universities and research institutions collaborated on the project from 2004-2008. It describes two scenario visions for Japan in 2050 that achieve a 70% reduction in CO2 emissions from 1990 levels through measures like improved energy efficiency, use of low-carbon energy sources, and changes to consumption behavior. Backcasting was used to identify the technologies, policies, and timing of interventions needed to transition from the current society to the low-carbon visions.

1. 日中低炭素セミナー2010 Scenarios for a low carbon society (LCS) in Japan in 2050 Junichi Fujino (NIES) Shuzo. Nishioka Junichi Fujino Mikiko Kainuma NIES has coordinated this Japan LCS research project during FY2004-2008 in collaboration with around 60 researchers from Tokyo Univ, Kyoto Univ, TIT, TSU, Forest Research Institute, etc.

2. 1st WS Executive Summary WHAT IS A LOW CARBON SOCIETY? Takes actions that are compatible with the principles of sustainable development, ensuring that the development needs of all groups within society are met Makes an equitable contribution towards the global effort to stabilise atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases at a level that will avoid dangerous climate change through deep cuts in global emissions Demonstrates high levels of energy efficiency and uses low carbon energy sources and production technologies Adopts patterns of consumption and behaviour that are consistent with low level of greenhouse gas emissions From the executive summary of the first Japan-UK LCS workshop (2006)

3. Backcasting is necessary to design sustainable low-carbon societies Technology development, socio-economic change projected by historically trend Reference future world Forecasting Mitigation Technology development 3. We need “Innovation” to realize visions Required Policy intervention and Investment Required intervention Service demand change by changing social behavior, lifestyles and institutions Environmental pressure required intervention policy and measures 2. We need “Visions” Back-casting Long-term target year 1.”Target” is tough Normative target world Checking year(2015) Checking year(2025) Release of AIM result 50% reductions In the world 2020 2050 2000

4. Valid 5 3 1 Equity Effective - 1 Suitable Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan Advisory board：advice to project Techno-Socio Innovation Study Next generation vehicles Efficient transportation system Advanced logistics Green buildings Self-sustained city Decentralized services Eco awareness Effective communication Dematerialization Transportation system Urban structure IT-society Reduction Target study Develop socio-economic scenario, evaluate counter-measures using econ-techno models BaU scenario Energy saving Tech. innovation GHG emission EE improvement Structure change New energy Life-style change GHG reduction target （eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level） Long-term Scenario Development Study Intervention scenario Evaluate feasibility of GHG reduction target 2010 2020 2050 1990 2000 Loge-term Target year Middle-term Target year 60 Researchers Propose the direction of long-term global warming policy [FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ] http://2050.nies.go.jp

8. 7 Socio-Economic Scenarios in Japan, 2050 7

9. 8 Innovations MOE AIST METI METI Projected energy efficiency improvement: Air-conditioners for cooling and heating 9.0 8.0 Historical 7.0 Best 6.0 5.0 COP (Coefficient of performance) 4.0 Average 3.0 Worst 2.0 Energy efficiency improvement has been encouraged by Top Runner Program. 1.0 0.0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

10. Innovations Residential sector Energy reduction potential: 40-50% Hi-Insulated housing Energy Effiency Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and B Change of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per household Change of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS) Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power

11. 40% demand reductions 70% CO2 cut by 2050 low-carbon energy

12. GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario A: Vivid Techno-driven Society Demand side energy -40% ＋ Low carbonization of primary energy＋ＣＣＳ with moderate cost of technological options as 0.3% of GDP in the year of 2050

13. A dozen actions make it possible to reduce 70% CO2 emissions by 2050 A Dozen Actions Comfortable and Green Built Environment 2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances 3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food 4. Sustainable Building Materials 5. Environmentally Enlightened Business and Industry 6. Swift and Smooth Logistics 7. Pedestrian Friendly City Design 8. Low-Carbon Electricity 9. Local Renewable Resources for Local Demand 10. Next Generation Fuels 11. Labeling to Encourage Smart and Rational Choices 12. Low-Carbon Society Leadership Residential/ commercial Industrial Transportation -70% to 1990 Energy supply Japan Cross-sector Japan

14. 13 How to achieve Low-Carbon Life? Action 2 Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Applicances Efficiency Improvement LC-Life Support for live Action 1 Support for Choice Support for Purchase Comfortable and Green Built Environment 30 yrs Eco-Labeling Navigation System Transition to service Consumption lifestyle Popularization of Environment buildings 5yrs 5yrs Policy Construction Skills Design Skills Financing Obligation and regulation Policy Policy Tax benefits, subsidy, reimburse Communization and Standardization of technical know-how Tax benefits for aggressive company for LCS Building

15. Japan Backcasting model can show optimized pathways towards LCS Early Investment can reduce cost and enhance energy efficiency of countermeasures and gain multi-benefits e.g. energy security business power comfortable live space walkable city, happy life! 14

16. How to reach to Low Carbon Society in Asia? Climate catastrophe: Significant Damage to Economy and Eco- System Development of Asia LCS Scenarios High Carbon Locked in Society High Carbon Locked-in type Development GHG emissions per capita Low Carbon Locked in Society Leapfrog-Development Low Carbon Society Backcasting Time (1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS (2) Quantifying future LCS visions (3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting Policy Packages for Asia LCS Funded by Ministry of Environment, Japan and NIES

17. Low-Carbon Scenarios forcountries and sub-countries in Asian http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS 16

18. 17 Do we really succeed to explain necessity of low-carbon society? Avoid energy resource battles by using resources in efficient ways Develop many innovations to support global sustainable development Build well-designed city for comfortable and friendly transportation, living, offices, amusement space in energy-saving/ renewable energy rich way… Good entrance point to climb up the mountain “happy, challengeable and sustainable society” We need good scientific findings to innovate systems to pledge people’s activities for LCS

19. 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 [Residential] HEMS [Trans] Clean Diesel 20,000 ・ -20,000 Alternative energy [Industry] Energy efficient appliances [Residential] Solar heater [Residential] -40,000 Cross-sectoral technologies [Industry] PV [Commercial] [Commercial] BEMS 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000 240,000 280,000 320,000 360,000 400,000 Marginal Abatement Cost to Reduce GHG emissions [Trans] freight car (change of ownership from private to commercial) [Residential] Energy efficiency improvement of air conditioners ：Industry [Trans] Energy efficiency improvement of ships, rails and air ：Residential [Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of air conditioners [Residential] Energy efficiency improvement of lights ：Commercial [Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of lights [Agriculture] Energy efficiency improvement and saving in use ：Transportation ：Agriculture [Agriculture] Energy efficiency improvement and saving in use ：Wastes [Transport] Bionergy [Industry] Measures in the Petrochemical industry [Transport] Measures to reduce service demands Mitigation costs (Yen/ktCO2) ：F-Gas [Residential] Insulation [Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of motors [Agriculture] Process improvement of domestic animal excrement, reduction of manure [Trans] Conversion to electric vehicles [Trans] Efficiency improvement [Wastes] Measures in the waste sector [Commercial] Insulation [Trans] Highbrid Measures in F-gases [Industry] Innovative processes [Residential] High efficient water supply [Industry] High efficient power generation [Residential] PV [Industry] Energy saving and recovery [Commercial] High efficient water supply GHG Mitigation (ktCO2eq) As of 27 March 2009 Japan in 2020 (Case III) 18 18 18 18

21. 20 Further Information:Japan Scenarios and Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies (LCSs) (2008.6)Special Issue on “Modelling Long- Term Scenarios for Low-Carbon Societies” CLIMATE POLICY 8 (2008) Call for Action and Executive Summary of the Third Workshop of Japan-UK Joint Research Project on “a Sustainable Low-Carbon Society” (2008.3)All materials can be downloaded at the“Japan Low-Carbon Society 2050” homepage: http://2050.nies.go.jp http://2050.nies.go.jp Contact person: Junichi Fujino (fuji@nies.go.jp)

22. 21

23. 22 Scenario Approach to Develop Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS) Depicting socio-economic visions in 2050 Checking potentials for energy supply Estimating energy service demands Exploring innovations for energy demands and energy supplies Quantifying energy demand and supplyto estimate CO2 emissions Step1 Step5 Step2 Step3 Step4 Achieving energy- related CO2 emissions target

24. 23 Visions we prepared two different but likely future societies for Japan Akemi Imagawa

26. when options should be introduced,

27. how much of each option should be introduced at each stage,with reference of candidateoptions as prepared. Current society 2050 Society CO2 Economic activity CO2 Economic activity CO2 Emission Actions BaU society Actions Actions CO2 70% reduction target Economic activity Low carbon society 2000 2050

28. Press release on May 22, 2008 A Dozen Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies Residential/commercial sector actions 7. Pedestrian Friendly City Design City design requiring short trips and pedestrian (and bicycle) friendly transport, augmented by efficient public transport 1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment Efficiently use of sunlight and energy efficient built environment design. Intelligent buildings. Energy supply sector actions 2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances Use of Top-runner and Appropriate appliances. Initial cost reduction by rent and release system resulting in improved availability. 8. Low-Carbon ElectricitySupplying low carbon electricity by large-scale renewables, nuclear power and CCS-equipped fossil (and biomass) fired plants Industrial sector actions 9. Local Renewable Resources for Local Demand Enhancing local renewables use, such as solar, wind, biomass and others. 3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food Supply of seasonal and safe low-carbon localfoods for local cuisine 10. Next Generation Fuels Development of carbon free hydrogen- and/or biomass-based energy supply system with required infrastructure 4. Sustainable Building MaterialsUsing local and renewable buildings materials and products. 5. Environmentally Enlightened Business and IndustryBusinesses aiming at creating and operating in low carbon market. Supplying low carbon and high value-added goods and services through energy efficient production systems. Cross-sector actions 11. Labeling to Encourage Smart and Rational ChoicesVisualizing of energy use and CO2 costs information for smart choices of low carbon goods and service by consumers, and public acknowledgement of such consumers Transportation sector actions 6. Swift and Smooth Logistics Networking seamless logistics systems with supply chain management, using both transportation and ICT infrastructure 12. Low-Carbon Society LeadershipHuman resource development for building “Low-Carbon Society” and recognizing extraordinary contributions.

29. 1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment Future Objectives Barriers Example to translate model results into policy actions

30. Japanese Emissions Targets towards 2050 Kyoto Protocol during 2008-2012 (Sink 3.8%, credit 1.6 %) Hop Step 25% in 2020 (incl. credit?） New Prime Minister Hatoyama 鳩山由紀夫 Jump 80% in 2050 Japan Japan

31. Expectations on LCS-RNet: “How to deploy LCS study to real world?” Policy makers Central/ regional government managers NGOs Research members Each country’s domestic/ local research institute Proposal/ collaborative activity on LCS scenario and roadmap makng Request of more practical, realistic roadmaps and also tractable tools for real world Development and maintenance of study tools/models Application and development to actual LCS processes

32. Even we understand the necessity of low-carbon society… Difficult to have global agreement: COP15 Difficult to change and find easy solutions Huge cost? Huge economic impact (lower income, higher unemployment rate, lower GDP growth rate)?

33. 日本政府中期目標達成分析タスクフォース １．モデル分析を行う研究機関 国立環境研究所（増井利彦 社会環境ｼｽﾃﾑ研究領域統合評価研究室 室長 他（藤野純一、肱岡靖明、花岡達也）） - AIM/Enduse[Global]モデル(世界モデル) - AIM/Enduse[Japan]モデル（日本モデル） - AIM/CGE[Japan]モデル（経済モデル） 地球環境産業技術研究機構（秋元圭吾 ｼｽﾃﾑ研究ｸﾞﾙｰﾌﾟ ｸﾞﾙｰﾌﾟﾘｰﾀﾞｰ 他） - RITEモデル（DNE21＋）（世界モデル） 日本エネルギー経済研究所（伊藤浩吉 常務理事 他） - エネ研モデル（日本モデル） 日本経済研究センター（猿山純夫 研究統括部 担当部長 他） - 日経センター・一般均衡モデル（経済モデル） - 日経センター・マクロモデル（経済モデル） 慶應義塾大学産業研究所（野村浩二 商学部教授） - ＫＥＯモデル（経済モデル） ２．モデル分析を評価する有識者 有村 俊秀 上智大学経済学部経済学科准教授 飯田 哲也 環境エネルギー政策研究所所長 ◎植田 和弘 京都大学大学院経済学研究科教授 栗山 浩一 京都大学農学研究科生物資源経済学専攻教授 土居 丈朗 慶應義塾大学経済学部教授 屋井 鉄雄 東京工業大学大学院総合理工学研究科教授 山口 光恒 東京大学先端科学技術研究センター特任教授 5 research teams 7 experts

34. Direct options Indirect options Barrier breaking Identification of necessary actions Step by step strategies Diffusion of green design building Lack in knowledge of regional specific climatic conditions Relatively high cost compared to general building Incentives to the higher performance building Organizing training classes and events Lack in information of environmental performance of the building Certification & registration of labeling Lack in personnel who can implement the calculation Too complicated calculation required dissemination of diagnosis practitioners Establishment of simplified evaluation method

35. Let’s innovate good evidence! Junichi Fujino fuji@nies.go.jp

36. 20091213-City Center, Copenhagen