The document discusses the rising crime rate in India, especially crimes against women, and attributes it primarily to a rising unemployment rate among young people entering the workforce. The unemployment rate is projected to increase dramatically by 2018, with over 200 million young unemployed people. This large population of unemployed youth significantly increases the risk of more crimes if not addressed. The document argues the government needs to take immediate action through large-scale employment generation projects in sectors like agriculture, construction, and healthcare to address this unemployment crisis and reduce crime. It also stresses the need for education reforms like building more secondary schools to improve skills and job opportunities for youth.

1. 28 GovernanceNow | April 16-30, 2013
Ashish Puntambekar
O
ur anger and agony over the
Delhi gangrape will not pre-
vent such events in future.
For this we need to properly
identify the reasons for a
rise in crimes and implement strategies
in the short, medium and long terms at
various levels to make women feel safe
in India. Before we begin, it is important
to understand the size of the problem.
Central problem and its magnitude
The 2011 census data and employment
statistics appear to indicate that overall
crime in India is likely to rise by almost
five times by 2018. Population data in
the accompanying table indicates that
young people in excess of 20 crore will
join India’s working age group by 2018.
This is in addition to the 11.2 crore al-
ready unemployed according to the 2011
census. This is equivalent to two-thirds
of the population of Europe entering the
working age group in an environment
where no new jobs are being created.
Today maybe just 10–15 % of those 20
crore unemployed youngsters have hit
the street and we already have so much
crime. Imagine what will happen when
the balance 85%-plus arrive. This is not
to say that a majority of them are poten-
tial criminals, but the authentic numbers
in the table and empirical correlations
linking rising crime, especially theft, to
unemployment from around the world,
indeed make for a planners’ nightmare.
To rising unemployment, if we add
a skewed sex ratio, the forecast gets
ominous. India might well be on its way
to becoming the most dangerous place
on earth for women. We cannot blame
police for this, they and the judiciary
are dealing with mere symptoms of bad
governance.
Need for a systemic response at various
levels
Short-term measures: Launch of large
Employment Generation Projects
The truth is that a very large propor-
tion of the problem of the rising crime
in India can be traced directly to lack
of directional inputs from the prime
minister’s office and a non-serious plan-
ning commission. The primary job of the
latter is to detect trends very early and
initiate timely and measured policy or
project based responses. It is therefore
worrying that it has not initiated a single,
sustainable, large employment generat-
ing scheme since 2004.
Lack of strategic thinking within the
planning commission and the govern-
ment shows up in the schemes that
have been promoted. They started the
MNREGS to create rural employment but
it did not create any real sustainable ca-
pacity within the economy. The Aadhaar-
based initiatives too do not and cannot
create any genuine productive capacity
or employment.
Given this, the justice JS Verma com-
mittee’s report looks rather narrow and
relatively unimportant in its scope.
A more pressing need is to know why
the government has not initiated a single
genuine employment generation project
in eight years when it is aware of the
unemployment projections.
Census data and education statistics
indicate that in excess of 60% of students
drop out of school after class 5 because
there is a shortage of 5,00,000 second-
ary schools across India. This indicates
that approximately 60% of the 20 crore
No safety in job
numbers
people politics policy performance
Planning Against Crime
The real reason behind the rise in crimes
like the Delhi gangrape is the rise in
unemployment, which will take gargantuan
proportions by 2018. Here is what our
planners should be doing very quickly

2. 29www.GovernanceNow.com
young people who will arrive in the job
market by 2018 can only be employed in
agriculture and construction. Capacity
creation projects in these sectors (for ex-
ample, check dams in drought-hit areas)
therefore need to be cleared on a fast-
track basis to generate jobs fast.
The problem is getting bigger. Every
single day that the government hesi-
tates to clear projects, an astounding
3,65,000 people are being rendered job-
less. The ‘asking rate’ is getting worse.
There is therefore a clear need to create
long-term employment for at least 10
crore people in a sustainable manner.
Healthcare alone can employ over three
crore, but the planning commission in a
decision which reflects a serious lack of
imagination has now clearly stated that
it wants to reduce government involve-
ment in the sector.
Some may argue that FDI in retail is
aimed at creating jobs. That is simply
not enough as by the governments own
admission, this move will add just one
crore new jobs. Project initiation and
clearance therefore needs to be put on a
fast track.
Medium- to long-term measures: Focus
on building new secondary education
capacity
The fundamental reason for the disinte-
gration of value systems in Indian society
and crime against women is a rapidly
failing education system and especially
the collapse of secondary education.
The data clearly indicates the true rea-
sons for the rise in unemployment and
crime:
1. Shortage of over five lakh secondary
schools: Most children are dropping out
of school after class 5, not because they
want to but because there are no schools
to go to.
2. Very poor teacher quality: Only 46%
of teachers in India have studied beyond
class 12. In
Bihar only 21% of teachers have stud-
ied beyond class 10.
Thus, if any single factor were re-
sponsible for low skill levels within
the working age group resulting in low
employment and a galloping crime rate,
it is the crippling shortages and teacher
quality issues we have in our secondary
school system.
The government’s response in the
form of the RTE Act has not added any
sustainable productive capacity within
the economy. It is destroying even the
private school system by making existing
private schools financially unviable. The
planning commission and the HRD min-
istry have seriously damaged the school
system due to a lack of understanding of
fundamentals.
The current ‘literacy-centric’ system
within the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan has
lowered the status of the teacher and
therefore the least qualified people
have landed the most important jobs in
the country – training our children. No
amount of computerisation can replace
the teacher who provides us with our
values. Only a good teacher and enlight-
ened parents can inculcate the concept of
man–woman equality in a child’s mind.
India led the world for thousands of
years because it had a ‘teacher-centric’
system. So, if we provide excellent incen-
tives for teachers, universal literacy will
follow by itself.
Therefore, if the government is sincere
about making India safe for women, it
should initiate a large project to build
more secondary schools and provide
good incentives for teachers. Building
more secondary schools will repair our
rapidly disintegrating moral fabric and
dramatically bring down crime against
women. Necessary financing can be put
in place in three months while adding 20
lakh new jobs.
The other alternative to initiating large
social infrastructure projects by the gov-
ernment and the
planning commission is to increase the
size of the land-based internal security
forces three to five times so that more
than 31.2 crore jobless people can be
effectively controlled. As this is clearly
unviable, India needs to enter an era of
megaprojects very quickly. n
Puntambekar, a corporate planner with a
Fortune 500 company, is also project de-
signer of the Indian Education Megaproject.
Views expressed are personal.
maybe just 10 % – 15 % of those 200 Million unemployed young people have reached the street and
we already have so much crime. Imagine what will happen when the balance 85 % + arrive. This is
not to say that a majority of unemployed young people are potential criminals, but the authentic
numbers in the table below and empirical correlations linking rising crime, especially theft to un-
employment from around the world, indeed make for a planners nightmare.
If to rising un-employment, we add a skewed sex ratio, the forecast gets ominous … India might
well be on its way to becoming the most dangerous place on earth for women. We cannot blame
the police for this, they and the Judiciary are just dealing with symptoms of bad governance.
The truth is that a very large
proportion of the problem
of the rising crime in India
can be traced directly to lack
of directional inputs from
the prime minister’s office
and a non-serious planning
commission. The primary
job of the latter is to detect
trends very early and initiate
timely and measured policy
or project based responses.